Tag: policy

India negotiating a possible Gaganyaan docking at ISS

11:17 am

India's Bharatiya Antariksh Station as outlined in 2024
India’s Bharatiya Antariksh Station as outlined in 2024.
Click for original image.

The head of India’s space agency ISRO, it is negotiating with NASA about doing a variety of manned space operations in conjunction with NASA, including a possible Gaganyaan docking to ISS.

According to a presentation by Isro chairman V Narayanan reviewed by TOI [Times of India], the future cooperation areas span three key areas of collaboration between the two nations’ space agencies.

The first involves comprehensive training of ISRO personnel, including astronauts, at NASA facilities across multiple domains, including robotics systems, extravehicular activity (EVA), extravehicular mobility unit (EMU) systems, resource management, space medicine and spaceflight operations, LEO and lunar mission control operations, rendezvous and docking procedures, and payload and science operations.

An important initiative outlined is the uncrewed docking demonstration of India’s Gaganyaan Orbital Module with the US Orbital Segment of the ISS — this would mark a significant technological milestone for India’s human spaceflight programme.

The third area focuses on cooperation in docking, berthing, and inter-operability systems.

It is clear ISRO wishes to get training from NASA for its manned missions. It also makes sense for it to make sure its Gaganyaan’s docking systems are compatible with ISS, Dragon, Starliner, Soyuz, and even China’s station.

Doing a test unmanned docking at ISS would also provide ISRO valuable experience in preparation for its own Bharatiya Antariksh Station (BAS). Its first module is presently scheduled for launch in 2028, with the entire station assembled by 2035.

None of this however has been finalized. If India were to do a docking at ISS, it would like have to wait until 2029, after the two tourist missions assigned to Axiom and Vast. ISS has a limited number of available ports, and I suspect a port really won’t be available until after those missions.

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Scientists: When a SpaceX upper stage burns up in the atmosphere, it burns up in the atmosphere!

10:12 am

Chicken Little rules!
Chicken Little rules!

We’re all gonna die! In making the first direct measurement of the plume caused by the vaporization of the lithium in a SpaceX Falcon 9 upper stage as it burned up in the atmosphere, scientists now claim the pollution for those upper stages as well as the coming launch of tens of thousands of satellites is going to seriously harm the environment.

You can read their paper here. From its conclusion:

Beyond this single event, recurring re-entries may sustain an increased level of anthropogenic flux of metals and metal oxides into the middle atmosphere with cumulative, climate-relevant consequences. After oxidation and heterogeneous uptake on alumina and other metal-oxide particles, aluminium and co-injected species could perturb stratospheric ozone chemistry, modify high-altitude aerosol microphysics through new particle formation, growth, and coagulation, and thereby influence radiative balance. Key unknowns include emission inventories for rockets and satellites, lack of a systematic observational survey of mesospheric metals, altitude-time ablation profiles, chemical lifetimes, particle size-composition distributions, and transport pathways into the lower stratosphere. Addressing these uncertainties will require coordinated, multi-site observations (including resonance-fluorescence and elastic lidars, in situ sampling, and satellites), together with whole-atmosphere chemistry-climate modelling to connect event-scale injections to long-term impacts.

The problems with this study, and its conclusions, are numerous. First of all, this first direct detection of the lithium plume is really no discovery at all. We know the rocket’s upper stage carried lithium. We know it burned up in the atmosphere. It is plainly obvious that lithium would end up as vapor in the upper atmosphere where stage burned up. This detection simply measured what we already knew.

Second, the amount detected is really insignificant. At about 60 miles elevation the numbers rose from 3 lithium atoms per square centimeter to 31 during the stage’s burn-up, numbers that will quickly dissipate at these high altitudes. We are not talking big numbers.

Finally, the threat from debris from upper rocket stages is only a temporary problem. As the demand to launch more satellites grows — which it will — the demand to recover and reuse the upper stages will grow as well. Already two American companies, SpaceX and Stoke Space, are developing rockets that will be completely reusable.

The mentality of these scientists is the same “Chicken Little” view of life held by the establishment science community for decades, from climate to industry to Covid to any human endeavor. “Everything humans do is bad! We must ban it now before it destroys us all!” And none of their cries of panic ever carry any larger context or reasonable perspective.

Sadly, this same attitude permeates the mainstream propaganda press. They don’t question such studies, they instead reprint their claims in bold, without any skepticism. We are thus ill-served by our so-called “independent and free” press.

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First unmanned Gaganyaan mission facing delay

9:33 am

Artist rendering of India's Gaganyaan capsule
Artist rendering of India’s Gaganyaan capsule

Though this is not yet confirmed, sources inside India’s space agency ISRO are saying that the first unmanned Gaganyaan orbital test mission, presently targeting a March launch, is likely to be delayed in order to do additional safety checks, following the two consecutive launch failures of the agency’s PSLV rocket.

After the dual PSLV setbacks, there is zero appetite for risk at Isro. Every component, fitting, system, and subsystem of Gaganyaan is being re-examined in minute detail to ensure mission success.

The PSLV, traditionally regarded as Isro’s workhorse launcher, suffered rare back-to-back failures over the past two years, prompting a comprehensive review of quality assurance and mission readiness protocols across launch vehicles. While Gaganyaan is slated to fly aboard the Human-Rated Launch Vehicle Mark-3 (HLVM3), an upgraded version of the GSLV Mk-III, the recent setbacks have cast a shadow over the broader launch ecosystem.

The actual manned mission is presently scheduled for early next year, after a series of unmanned orbital test flights are completed in ’26. This schedule is significantly later than ISRO’s original schedule. When the program was first proposed in 2018, ISRO said the manned mission would happen in 2022.

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NASA today completes SLS wet dress rehearsal with few problems

8:35 pm

NASA today successfully completed its SLS wet dress rehearsal countdown with few problems, fueling the rocket completely and then running the countdown down to T-33 seconds and then recycling back to T-10 minutes and running the countdown down again, this time to T-29 seconds.

During the day-long event there were only two minor issues, neither of significance. Early in the day there was “an issue with ground communications” that required mission control to shift to “backup communication methods” for about a half hour before the issue was resolved.

Then, during the first countdown to T-33 the count was paused and recycled once “due to a booster avionics system voltage anomaly.” This also appeared to be minor issue quickly resolved.

NASA will hold a press conference tomorrow at 11 am (Eastern) to discuss the results of the entire rehearsal.

NASA administrator Jared Isaacman had stated previously that he needed to see a perfect rehearsal before he would approve the launch of Artemis-2, carrying four astronauts on a ten-day mission around the Moon. While today’s rehearsal was not “perfect,” the issues were very minor. I suspect he will give the okay, with a tentative launch date of March 6, 2026 already being considered. The present launch window closes on April 6, 2026.

That mission, should it fly, still carries enormous risk. The Orion capsule will be using a life support system never tested in space before. It will also be using a heat shield that is questionable, having failed to behave as expected in the first Artemis mission in 2022.

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NASA on Starliner: Too much freedom caused the failure!

2:59 pm

Starliner docked to ISS
Starliner docked to ISS in 2024.

NASA today released its final investigation report on the causes behind the Starliner thruster issues during that capsule’s only manned mission in ISS, issues that almost prevented the spacecraft from docking successfully and could have left it manned and out-of-control while still in orbit.

You can read the report here [pdf]. NASA administrator Jared Isaacman made it clear in his own statement that the Starliner incident was far more serious than originally let on.

“To undertake missions that change the world, we must be transparent about both our successes and our shortcomings. We have to own our mistakes and ensure they never happen again. Beyond technical issues, it is clear that NASA permitted overarching programmatic objectives of having two providers capable of transporting astronauts to-and-from orbit, influence engineering and operational decisions, especially during and immediately after the mission. We are correcting those mistakes. Today, we are formally declaring a Type A mishap and ensuring leadership accountability so situations like this never reoccur. We look forward to working with Boeing as both organizations implement corrective actions and return Starliner to flight only when ready.”

A Type A mishap is one in which a spacecraft could become entirely uncontrollable, leading to its loss and the death of all on board. Though Starliner was NOT lost, for a short while as it hung close to ISS that result was definitely possible. Its thrusters were not working. It couldn’t maneuver to dock, nor could it maneuver to do a proper and safe de-orbit. Fortunately, engineers were able to figure out a way to get the thursters operational again so a docking could occur, but until then, it was certainly a Type A situation.

The report outlines in great detail the background behind Starliner’s thruster issues, the management confusion between NASA and Boeing, and the overall confused management at Boeing itself, including its generally lax testing standards.

The report’s recommends that NASA impose greater control over future commercial contracts, noting that under the capitalism model that NASA has been following:
» Read more

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Chinese pseudo-company Landspace targeting April-June for 2nd Zhuque-3 launch

10:24 am

Zhuque-3 at launch
Screen capture from China’s
state-run press of the first Zhuque-3
launch on December 2, 2025.

The Chinese pseudo-company Landspace now hopes to make its second orbital launch and recovery attempt of its Zhuque-3 rocket sometime in the April-June ’26 time frame.

The first launch in December ’25 was a success, getting its upper stage into its planned orbit. The attempt to vertically land the first stage however failed. The stage came down almost precisely on its target landing pad, but the engines failed and so it crashed instead of landing softly.

Officials say that they also hope to begin reusing the first stage quickly, if it should land successfully, with the first reuse planned for late this year. The rocket itself has about two-thirds the capacity of SpaceX’s Falcon 9, and is being marketed to launch the half-dozen giant satellite constellations China is presently attempting to place in orbit.

Since the beginning of this year there has been a decided pause of news from China’s pseudo-companies. I have speculated this dearth of the normal stream of PR announcements might be related to a power-play by the new government agency created last year to supervise these pseudo-companies. It also could simply be the government has told them to tone it down a bit. Better to sell actual achievement than empty plans.

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UAE extends mission of its Al-Amal Mars orbiter

8:57 am

Deimos with Mars in the background
Al-Amal’s 2023 image of Deimos, the first good
picture of the moon ever taken. Click for full movie.

The United Arab Emirates (UAE) yesterday announced it is extending the mission of its Al-Amal Mars orbiter (“Hope” in English) to 2028, significantly beyond its initial planned mission of two years.

Launched in July 2020, the Hope Probe successfully entered Mars orbit in February 2021 after a seven-month interplanetary journey, marking a historic achievement as the first Arab nation to reach the Red Planet. Originally designed as a two-year mission to observe and study Mars’ atmosphere, the probe has far exceeded expectations. Since reaching Mars, it has gathered around 10 terabytes of scientific data, shared through more than a dozen datasets with research institutions worldwide.

The probe itself was mostly built by American engineers and organizations, as part of a deal to train UAE students. Once in operation around Mars, the UAE and those students took over almost all operations. It orbits Mars in a very wide orbit, allowing it to study global weather and atmosphere conditions, such as dust storms.

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Bahamas allows SpaceX to resume Falcon 9 landings inside Bahamian waters

8:49 am

The Civil Aviation Authority of the Bahamas (CAAB) this week announced that it is allowing SpaceX to resume Falcon 9 landings inside Bahamian waters.

In a statement, CAAB said that one landing is scheduled for Wednesday night between 5:00 pm and 9:30 pm (local time). “All requisite regulatory and environmental reviews and clearances have been completed in accordance with established aerospace safety and operations protocols,” CAAB said, reminding the population that, depending on weather and atmospheric conditions, “one or more sound booms may be heard during the landing sequence”.

SpaceX had completed one landing in February 2025, but the CAAB then paused further landings two months later, claiming it wanted to do a full environmental review.

There was also the issue of a SpaceX $1 million donation to the University of the Bahamas. Maybe the CAAB wanted to wait until the check cleared.

As should be expected, a fringe of anti-Musk activists began screaming “environmental disaster” and getting the full support of the propaganda press. The claim is utterly stupid, considering SpaceX has landed hundreds of Falcon 9s in the past decade harmlessly.

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NASA now targeting February 19, 2026 for 2nd SLS wet dress rehearsal countdown

8:20 am

According to an announcement yesterday afternoon, NASA is now targeting February 19, 2026 for the second SLS wet dress rehearsal countdown.

During the rehearsal, the team will execute a detailed countdown sequence. Operators will conduct two runs of the last ten minutes of the countdown, known as terminal count. They will pause at T-1 minute and 30 seconds for up to three minutes, then resume until T-33 seconds before launch and pause again. After that, they will recycle the clock back to T-10 minutes and conduct a second terminal countdown to just inside of T-30 seconds before ending the sequence. This process simulates real-world conditions, including scenarios where a launch might be scrubbed due to technical or weather issues.

If this dress rehearsal goes off perfectly, NASA is considering the possibility of an actual launch attempt on March 6, 2026, though it admits that date is very preliminary That launch will carry four astronauts on a ten-day mission slingshot around the Moon and back to Earth, using an Orion capsule with untested life support system and a questionable heat shield.

The present launch window for this mission closes on April 6th, so NASA’s margins will shrink considerably if this second dress rehearsal has any further problems.

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Chinese pseudo-company raises $729 million

10:35 pm

The Chinese pseudo-company rocket startup Ispace announced on February 13, 2026 that it has raised $729 million in new investment capital.

Beijing Interstellar Glory Space Technology Ltd., also known as iSpace, announced the D++ funding worth 5.037 billion yuan Feb. 12, following a D+ round of $98 million (700 million yuan) in September 2025. The round appears to be the largest disclosed funding round so far for a Chinese launch startup, eclipsing the previous rounds secured by Space Pioneer ($350 million) and Galactic Energy ($336 million) in 2025.

A press statement outlines a hybrid syndicate of numerous funding round participants, incgovernment industrial funds, state-linked strategic ecosystem investors, municipal and provincial investment vehicles and private equity. This follows a trend of strong strategic investment in space companies in China over the past couple of years since the central government identified commercial space as a strategic emerging industry and key driver of high-tech development. Co-leads Tongchuang Weiye and existing shareholder Jingming Capital represent market-oriented investors focused on advanced manufacturing and aerospace, and were joined by repeat backing from private equity players such as CDH Baifu and Ganquan Capital. [emphasis mine]

It is hard to determine how independent these Chinese investment firms are from the government. I suspect the communists are closely involved in some manner or another.

The press release made no mention of a timeline for when Ispace will attempt the first launch and recovery of its Hyperbola-3 rocket. It had previously targeted a 2025 launch, but that never happened.

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NASA testing SLS fuel leak repairs; UPDATE: Problems!

10:33 am

UPDATE: NASA posted a late update today describing vaguely the results of this fueling test, and revealed that while the test of the replacement seals appeared to go well, there were other problems:

During the test, teams encountered an issue with ground support equipment that reduced the flow of liquid hydrogen into the rocket. … Engineers will purge the line over the weekend to ensure proper environmental conditions and inspect the ground support equipment before replacing a filter suspected to be the cause of the reduced flow.

In other words, the SLS fueling system is like playing whack-a-mole. You fix one problem, and others show up.

I predicted this. It remains entirely possible NASA will not be able to complete a perfect full wet-dress rehearsal countdown in time to launch before April 6th, when this present launch window closes.

Original post:
———————-
NASA yesterday did an unannounced test fueling of its SLS rocket to check out the repairs in the fueling system.

NASA is loading liquid hydrogen aboard its Space Launch System moon rocket at the Kennedy Space Center on Thursday for an unpublicized but crucial test of the repairs made to a leaky umbilical that derailed a countdown rehearsal on Feb. 2.

The operation to load liquid hydrogen into the huge fuel tank on the rocket’s core stage was thought to be already underway at launch complex 39B on Thursday morning. The test will determine if new seals installed in the launch pad umbilical are working. “As part of our work to assess the repair we made in the area where we saw elevated hydrogen gas concentrations during the previous wet dress rehearsal, engineers are testing the new seals by running some liquid hydrogen across the interface and partially filling the core stage liquid hydrogen tank. The data will inform the timeline for our next wet dress rehearsal,” a NASA spokesperson said about the previously unannounced test.

If the new seals work on these fueling tests, another full dress rehearsal countdown could take place as early as next week.

Posting is going to very light for the rest of the day. I am fighting a bad head cold and just want to go back to bed.

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FAA confirms “no significant impact” to environment for Starship/Superheavy at Boca Chica

9:42 am

The FAA today released [pdf] its final environmental assessment reviewing SpaceX’s request to expand operations of Starship/Superheavy at Boca Chica, confirming that it has determined there will be “no significant impact” to environment.

The 2022 PEA and April 2025 Tiered EA examined the potential for significant environmental impacts from Starship-Super Heavy launch operations at the Boca Chica Launch Site and defined the regulatory setting for impacts associated with Starship-Super Heavy. The areas evaluated for environmental impacts in this Tiered EA include noise and noise‐compatible land use; aviation emissions and air quality; hazardous materials, solid waste, and pollution prevention; and socioeconomics. In each of these areas, the FAA has concluded that no significant impacts would occur as a result of the Proposed Action.

The approval will allow SpaceX to do 25 launches per year (three of which are at night). The approval also appears to lay the groundwork for bringing Superheavy back not only to Boca Chica, but to Florida. It also lays the groundwork for bringing Starship back to Boca Chica after completing an orbital flight, to be caught by the tower chopsticks.

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Vast wins sixth ISS slot for tourist mission

5:11 pm

Haven-2
Vast’s full Haven-2 station once completed

NASA today announced that it has awarded the space station startup Vast its sixth slot for a manned commercial mission to ISS, scheduled for 2027.

The mission is expected to spend up to 14 days aboard the space station. A specific launch date will depend on overall spacecraft traffic at the orbital outpost and other planning considerations.

…Vast will submit four proposed crew members to NASA and its international partners for review. Once approved and confirmed, they will train with NASA, international partners, and SpaceX for their flight. The company has contracted with SpaceX as launch provider for transportation to and from the space station.

Vast already intends to fly four two-week missions to its single module Haven-1 demo station, scheduled to launch in the first quarter of 2027. This new ISS mission will demonstrate to NASA directly that Vast can handle manned missions. In both cases, the company is hoping its actions will convince NASA to award it a full construction contract to build its Haven-2 full-sized station, as shown in the graphic to the right.

Below are my rankings of the five private commercial space stations being developed. At this point the first three (Haven, Axiom, Starlab) are essentially tied, while the fourth (Thunderbird) is only trailing because it came late to the game. The fifth, Orbital Reef, seems practically out of the game.
» Read more

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New Zealand raises its annual cap of rocket launches from 100 to 1,000

10:28 am

The New Zealand government has now increased the number of launches it will allow from within its territory each year from 100 to 1,000.

The government is raising the total number of launches allowed to 1000, as the cap set at 100 in 2017 comes close to being breached. The US-NZ company Rocket Lab dominates the launch market from its pad at Mahia.

Space Minister Judith Collins said the 100 cap was likely to be hit this year. “This change ensures our space and advanced aviation industries can continue to expand while operating within clear environmental boundaries.” The environmental impact from more debris from space vehicle launches had been newly determined to be low.

The rules would have required a special marine consent for every launch over the 100 cap.

The article at the link is a typical leftist anti-achievement propaganda piece, spending more time airing the complaints by one physics professor than reporting the details of this new ruling. Nonetheless, this decision will likely benefit Rocket Lab’s operations significantly, as it hopes this year to make as many as two launches per month. While that remains below the old 100 launch cap, the new 1,000 launch cap gives it a limit it won’t face for decades, if ever.

It will also likely benefit several spaceports to the west in Australia. Some of their launches would likely need New Zealand clearance, and this new limit will ease their regulatory burden.

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Four launches today with mostly positive results

10:15 am

This morning saw a string of launches from China, Russia, America, and Europe, with all four appearing to get their payloads into orbit though the American launch, by ULA’s Vulcan rocket, appeared to have a problem with one of its solid-fueled boosters.

First, a Chinese pseudo-company owned entirely by a Chinese government agency successfully placed seven satellites in orbit, its Smart Dragon-3 rocket (also called Jielong-3) lifting off from a platform off the coast of northeast China. Of the satellites, the prime payload was a Pakistani Earth observation satellite.

Though this launch was from a pseudo-company, I think I can safely say that the pause in launches by China’s so-called commercial market continues. Smart Dragon-3 was built by the China Aerospace Science and Technology Corporation (CASC), which while structured as a private company is owned and controlled by several agencies of the Chinese government.

Next, Russia successfully launched a new weather satellite, its Proton rocket launching from Baikonur in Kazakhstan. This was the first Proton launch in three years, a pause partly because Russia is in the process of retiring that rocket. The lower stages crashed in a range of spots in Kazakhstan and across southern Russia, just missing China in two places.

The American company ULA then followed with its first launch in 2026, its Vulcan rocket lifting off from Cape Canaveral in Florida and carrying two military satellites designed to track other satellite operations in high geosynchronous orbit.

Unexpected debris falling from rocket at about T-1:00
Unexpected debris falling from rocket at about T-1:00

While it appears the launch was able to get the satellites into their correct orbits, the Vulcan rocket had an issue during the launch. According to ULA, one of the rocket’s four solid-fueled boosters had a problem during its flight. More details can be found here, suggesting the booster, built by Northrop Grumman, might have had a been a failure of the booster’s nozzle, similar to the same burn-through that occurred on a booster during Vulcan’s second launch in 2024, and also occurred during a Northrop Grumman static fire test in 2025.

This issue is likely going to delay further Vulcan launches, and will likely make it impossible for ULA to meet its goal of launching 16 to 18 Vulcan missions this year. It will also raise hackles within the Pentagon, which certified Vulcan for military launches in 2025. That certification will likely be questioned, and possibly even pulled.

Finally, Arianespace sent 32 Leo satellites into orbit for Amazon, its Ariane-6 rocket lifting off from French Guiana. This was the first Ariane-6 launch in its most powerful variant, using four strap-on boosters.

Amazon has now launched 212 Leo satellites. Its FCC license however requires it to have 1,616 in orbit by July. The company has requested a waiver on that requirement, and is likely to get it, since it is now demonstrating that it is serious about launching the constellation.

The 2026 launch race:

16 SpaceX
8 China
2 Rocket Lab
2 Russia
1 ULA
1 Europe (Arianespace)

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British rocket startup Skyrora might buy Orbex assets

9:24 am

The British rocket startup Skyrora, which has been around since 2018 and has yet to complete an orbital launch, today indicated it might buy the remaining assets of the now bankrupt British rocket startup Orbex.

The company, which has a manufacturing facility in Cumbernauld, said its move would ensure Orbex technology and the spaceport remained under UK ownership. It also said its bid would safeguard products that had received public funding.

Skyrora has been making promises for almost a decade with no clear progress. It did two successful suborbital tests in 2020 (here and here), had a failed suborbital test in 2022, and applied for an orbital launch license with Britain’s Civil Aviation Authority (CAA) in January 2024. Not surprisingly, it is unclear whether that license has been approved. The company said last year it wants to do that orbital launch in ’26 from the Saxavord spaceport in the Shetland Islands. That gives the CAA two years to approve the license, which based on that agency’s track record might be enough time to get the job done. Or not.

Getting Orbex’s assets might actually be a good thing for Skyrora, which has not been very successful getting anything going with its own engineering. It will still face that odious regulatory regime of the United Kingdom, that has now killed two different rocket startups.

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ULA’s new management predicts it will achieve 18-22 launches in 2026

10:03 am

Before Tory Bruno resigned as CEO of the United Launch Alliance (ULA) to go work for Blue Origin, he had predicted in August last year that ULA was primed to complete two launches per month for the rest of ’25 and throughout ’26.

That prediction did not happen, as the company was only able to do four launches in the last five months of 2025, and no launches so far in 2026.

Yesterday the new management of ULA insisted that Bruno’s prediction was still reasonable, and that the company will complete between 18 to 22 launches before the end of this year.

Speaking during a virtual media roundtable on Feb. 10, Gary Wentz, ULA’s vice president of Atlas and Vulcan Programs, said the company aims to launch two to four Atlas 5 missions and 16 to 18 Vulcan missions. He said the Vulcan rockets will be split between pad 41 at Cape Canaveral Space Force Station and pad 3 at Vandenberg Space Force Base. “It’s a balance. We’re working with our customers to determine specific priorities and order of missions and in the case of Space Force and NRO (National Reconnaissance Office), to determine which missions they wan to get off with higher priority,” Wentz said. “And as we finalize that over the next about six to eight months out of the mission, then we’ll assign whether or not its going to be an Atlas mission or a Vulcan mission.”

John Elbon, the interim CEO following the departure of Tory Bruno in December, said that the company has a “strong commitment” from their commercial and government customers, citing a backlog of more than 80 missions.

That backlog is mostly split between ULA’s big contract to launch Amazon’s Leo satellites and a variety of different agencies in the Pentagon. Both are desperate to get their satellites into space, and it appears ULA is struggling to figure out how to do it. In its early years (from 2007 to 2016) the company was generally able to average about one launch a month, but since then that launch rate as been less than half that. To not only return to those launch rates from a decade ago but to almost double them will be challenging, to say the least.

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OHB Italia wins $96 million contract to build Ramses probe to visit the asteroid Apophis

9:39 am

Apophis' path past the Earth in 2029
A cartoon (not to scale) showing Apophis’s
path in 2029

The European Space Agency (ESA) yesterday announced that it has awarded the aerospace company OHB Italia a $96 million contract to build Ramses probe to rendezvous with the potentially dangerous asteroid Apophis when it makes its next close fly-by of Earth in 2029.

This contract is in addition to the $75 million development contract awarded OHB Italia in 2024. According to the company’s press release here:

The launch is scheduled for April 2028, with a rendezvous with Apophis planned for February 2029, approximately two months before its close approach to Earth. The spacecraft will accompany the asteroid until August 2029, in order to observe in detail how Earth’s tidal forces modify its shape, rotation, orbit and surface characteristics.

The initiative also benefits from strong international cooperation. The Japan Aerospace Exploration Agency (JAXA), drawing on its well-established expertise in asteroid science, will contribute by providing launch service onboard an H3 rocket, the spacecraft’s solar arrays and a Thermal Infrared Imager, further reinforcing the project’s global dimension.

In addition, two cubesats will be launched with Ramses and deployed once the spacecraft reaches Apophis.

This schedule is very tight, which places great pressure on OHB, especially because European space projects are traditionally built slowly after years of planning. ESA almost never does things fast like this.

At the moment, Osiris-Apex (formerly Osiris-Rex) is the only spacecraft that is on its way to Apophis.

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British rocket startup Orbex goes under

9:10 am

Prime rocket prototype on launchpad
The prototype of Orbex’s never-launched Prime rocket,
on the launchpad in 2022

After waiting four years to get the necessary launch licenses from the United Kingdom’s Civil Aviation Authority (CAA), delays that forced it to abandon its preferred spaceport in Sutherland to go to the SaxaVord spaceport in the Shetland Islands, the British rocket startup Orbex today announced its effort to find a buyer or new financing had failed and it is going into receivership with the goal of selling off its assets.

Orbex has filed a notice of intention to appointment Administrators and will continue trading while all options for the future of the company are explored, including potential sale of all or parts of its business or assets. The notice provides short-term protection and allows the business time to secure as positive an outcome as possible for its creditors, employees and wider stakeholders.

The funding required for Orbex to remain a viable business was sought from a variety of public and private investors during its Series D funding round, which has ultimately failed. Several merger and acquisition opportunities have also been explored, with none resulting in a favourable outcome.

To repeat this company’s sad story, Orbex had hoped to do its first launch from the proposed Sutherland spaceport on the north coast of Scotland in 2022, but was blocked for four years because of red tape. First, the UK’s Civil Aviation Authority would not issue the spaceport and launch licenses. Second, local opposition delayed approvals as well. Those delays ate into the company’s resources, until it became entirely dependent on grants from the UK government (some through the European Space Agency) to keep it afloat.

By 2024 Orbex realized launching from Sutherland was impossible, and it then switched to the Saxavord spaceport in the Shetland Islands. This forced more delays because the company had no facilities there. It had already spent a fortune building everything for Sutherland.

There will be many who will blame this failure on the difficulty of rocket science, but it appears the fault almost entirely lies with the UK government and its odious regulatory regime. Neither Sutherland nor SaxaVord have been able to get anything off the ground, and it appears right now that rocket companies are going everywhere else to find launch sites. New rockets must launch and fail so that they can eventually succeed. The sense I get from the CAA is that it is treating every launch not as a test but as an operational launch that must succeed. Orbex couldn’t meet that standard.

Nor can any other rocket startup. At the moment SaxoVord has only one customer planning to launch, the German startup Rocket Factory Augsburg, but after a static fire explosion in 2024 blocked the launch nothing has happened since. I suspect the company is having problems getting new launch approvals from the CAA.

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China completes launch abort test of Mengzhou capsule; also vertically lands Long March 10A 1st stage in ocean

7:50 am

Long March 10A 1st stage splashing down softly on test flight
Click for source.

China today completed a major test for its future manned lunar program. In launch for the first time the first stage of its new Long March 10A, it not only succeeded in completing a launch abort of its next generation Mengzhou manned capsule — intended not only for its space station but for its manned lunar program — the first stage successfully completed a vertical soft splashdown in the ocean.

The uncrewed vessel took off from the Wenchang Satellite Launch Centre on the southern island of Hainan aboard a Long March-10 prototype test rocket at 11am on Wednesday.

The Mengzhou vessel separated from the rocket shortly after launch, before splashing down in the ocean at its designated landing spot, according to the China Aerospace Science and Technology Corporation (CASC).

The first stage of the Long March-10 rocket also safely splashed down in its designated ocean landing spot, CASC said. The state-owned aerospace contractor developed both the rocket and the crewed spacecraft.

Courtesy of BtB’s stringer Jay, video of the launch can be seen here. Jay also found two additional images, one showing the stage just before splashdown standing vertical (as shown in the picture to the right) and the other of the stage floating in the water just before it was picked up by a recovery vessel. According to comments at these tweets, it is speculated that the interstage unit that connected the capsule to the stage was either ejected at landing or was torn off when the stage hit the water.

This is a major achievement for China. It gets it closer to being able to use Mengzhou for longer missions to places like the Moon.

The modular Mengzhou spacecraft has two variants: a seven-astronaut near-Earth model designed to support the country’s Tiangong space station and a model with a smaller crew capacity for missions to the moon. The latter is expected to work in tandem with the Lanyue lunar surface lander, designed to carry two astronauts to the moon’s surface.

The soft splashdown of the Long March 10A first stage also gets China closer to its first reuse of a rocket.

I must note that this success is part of a larger story about China’s space industry that is not so hopeful.
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First Vulcan rocket arrives at Vandenberg for launch later this year

8:53 am

ULA has now delivered parts of a Vulcan rocket to Vandenberg Space Force Base in California as it prepares for that rocket’s first launch from that spaceport later this year.

ULA’s RocketShip recently docked at the harbor on the South Base with the Vulcan rocket components stowed inside the huge cargo vessel. … Crews spent several days offloading the hardware while mindful of tides that could have delayed the delivery.

…On the first day, workers removed the Vulcan’s Centaur upper stage from the RocketShip, followed by the booster the next day. “We tried to take off the payload adapter and the interstage adapter and, unfortunately, the swells were pretty bad,” Fortson said. After pausing the unloading chores for two days, the swells cooperated so the team didn’t have to wait for the next opportunity for suitable tides a couple of weeks away.

ULA hopes to get the launch off by June 2026, but that schedule will depend on whether the launchpad conversion from the Atlas-5 rocket can be completed. It also depends on whether the payload is ready on time. It appears this launch will be one of ULA’s seven national security launches for the Pentagon, though this is not confirmed.

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Starfish gets a second satellite servicing contract from Pentagon

8:42 am

The orbital tug startup Starfish has now won a second major satellite servicing contract from the military to use its Otter tug to either service or de-orbit defunct military satellites.

The first contract, announced in late January, was from the Space Force’s Space Development Agency (SDA) for $52.5 million. Under that deal, Starfish would fly an Otter in 2027 to dock with a satellite and then de-orbit it.

The new contract, announced February 7, 2026, is with the Pentagon’s APFIT program, designed to encourage “innovative technologies”. It is for an additional $54.5 million, and calls for Otter to dock with a satellite in 2028 and service it rather than de-orbit it.

The Otter is designed to autonomously dock with and maneuver national security satellites, maximizing their operational capabilities while supporting SSC’s [Space Systems Command] need for sustained space maneuver. The spacecraft leverages autonomous rendezvous, proximity operations, and docking technology, allowing it to service satellites that were not originally designed for servicing.

As I noted in January when the first de-orbit contract was announced, while a number of contracts have been issued in the U.S., Europe, and Japan to demonstrate de-orbit technology, that was the first operational de-orbit contract. As for servicing, Northrop Grumman has already succeeded several times in prolonging the life of defunct commercial geosynchronous satellites with its Mission Extension Vehicle (MEV).

Starfish’s Otter however has only successfully demonstrated rendezvous and proximity capabilities on two missions, with a third a failure. As for docking, its Otter Pup tug has flown two missions, with the first failing in 2023 when both spacecraft began spinning unexpected. The second mission is presently ongoing, and was supposed to achieve a docking by now. After completing rendezvous maneuvers in September Starfish has provided no new updates. As far as we know, the docking never occurred or was a failure.

These contracts however suggest it has succeeded. Why else would the military suddenly issue more than $100 million in contracts to the company?

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Has Roscosmos gotten its Baikonur Soyuz-2 launchpad fixed already?

8:18 am

According to a short sentence added today at the end of Anatoli Zak’s ongoing report on the damaged Soyuz-2 launchpad in Baikonur, Russia’s space agency Roscosmos has completed repairs on that pad early.

According to rumors from Baikonur, the new service platform was installed at Site 31 by Feb. 10, 2026.

That’s it. No other information. Furthermore, this follows the last report from a Roscosmos official in late January where he said repairing the pad by March was facing difficulties due to winter weather and delays in getting replacement parts.

The launchpad had become unusable following the last launch in November when a platform used to prepare the rocket fell into the pad’s flame trench. It had not been attached properly.

As this report is based on rumors and very limited information, it must be treated with caution.

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Voyager wins four-year $24.5 million ISS management contract from NASA

8:01 am

The space station startup Voyager Technologies yesterday won a four-year $24.5 million contract from NASA to apparently manage the agency’s missions to ISS.

Under the task-order contract, Voyager will deliver end-to-end mission services spanning payload integration, mission operations, safety and compliance, and post-mission closeout. NASA may add options that extend the scope and value of the agreement over its life, providing Voyager with a multi-year framework for recurring mission execution. Voyager anticipates onboarding three payload missions over the next quarter, reflecting near-term demand and a steady pipeline of task orders supporting ongoing ISS operations.

The company has been doing similar ISS work for NASA at the Johnson Space Center in Texas, though this contract appears to expand that work considerably. This deal provides the company further experience operating space station missions, crucial for the Starlab station that Voyager is listed as the consortium’s lead company.

Of the five stations under development, Axiom has run tourist missions to ISS to demonstrate this capability, Vast is launching its own demo single module station to demonstrate this capability, and now Voyager is doing this work for NASA to demonstrate this capability.

Max Space, which only entered this race late last year, has no such contract or experience, but it has recently partnered with Voyager in other work, and plans to launch its own demo station module in ’27.

The last proposed space station, Orbital Reef, has no such deal as far as I know. Led by Blue Origin (partnered with Sierra Space), this station project continues to show no progress of any kind.

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What life was really like in the American wild west

11:27 am

Vanished Arizona by Martha Summerhayes

Though I read a lot of good, detailed, and well-researched histories, I repeatedly find that if I really want to get a sense of the reality of times past, it is necessary to read something that was written by a person who lived at the time, and was an actual witness to great events.

When you do this you instantly cut through the political narratives that color all histories, whether sincere or not. Historians writing generations later bring their own viewpoint to the subject, colored by subsequent history shaped by what the original players did. So, to really understand those original players fairly, you really need to hear their side of the story, from their own lips.

Thus, I was thrilled recently when I came across a used copy of Vanished Arizona: Recollections of the Army life of a New England Woman by Martha Summerhayes. The book covers her memories from 1870 to 1900 as the wife of Jack Summerhayes, an officer in the American military stationed in the western United States, with the bulk of the story centered in Arizona.

This is an amazingly readable book. More important, it tells this story of army life from the perspective of the women who lived it. Most histories cover the battles and important events that Summerhayes’s husband Jack participated in, from defeating the Apaches and Geronimo to establishing the first settlements in early Arizona. Martha Summerhayes instead tells the story from her perspective as a woman living in an isolated fort in the hot desert wilderness of Arizona. The story is riveting, and revealing as well.

In reading her work now, 150 years later during the first half of the 21st century, I noted two important things.
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NASA provides update on Artemis-2 repairs for future dress rehearsal countdown

8:01 am

NASA late last night posted an update describing the fuel leak repair work taking place in advance of a second dress rehearsal countdown prior to the launch of the manned ten-day Artemis-2 mission around the Moon.

While teams continue evaluating the cause of the leak, reconnecting the interfaces is expected to be complete on Monday, Feb. 9. Testing is planned to occur at NASA’s Stennis Space Center in Bay St. Louis, Mississippi, to evaluate additional dynamics of the plates. Engineers are reviewing options to test the repair work prior to the next wet dress rehearsal to ensure the seals are performing as expected.

NASA also will update several operations for the next wet dress rehearsal to focus on fueling activities. The Orion crew module hatch will be closed prior to the test, and the closeout crew responsible on launch day for assisting the Artemis II crew into their seats and closing Orion’s two hatches will not be deployed to the launch pad. The crew access arm will not be retracted during the next rehearsal, after engineers successfully demonstrated the ground launch sequencer can retract it during the final phase of the countdown.

Additionally, NASA has added 30 minutes of extra time during each of two planned holds in the countdown before and after tanking operations to allow more time for troubleshooting, increasing the total time of the countdown by one hour. The additional time will not affect the crew’s timeline on launch day.

In other words, the next rehearsal will focus almost entirely on fueling to make sure these issues are resolved.

The agency however has not set a date for that countdown rehearsal. To launch in March, as presently planned, it must occur sometime in the next three weeks, and go perfectly. Otherwise that launch will slip again, and begin to bump up against the end of the launch window on April 6th.

Right now I am betting that second rehearsal will not go perfectly, as this was SLS’s track record leading up to November 2022 first launch. It took five countdowns before the agency was able to get the rocket off the ground without issues.

And if it does go perfectly and Artemis-2 is launched manned, it is essential to note again that it will be flying a manned capsule with a questionable heat shield and an untested life support system.

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China and SpaceX complete launches

2:04 pm

The pause in launches in the past week has now ceased, completely for SpaceX and partly for China.

Yesterday China completed its first launch in more than a week and only its second since it had two launch failures on January 17, 2026. It successfully launched its Shenlong X-37B copycat mini-reusable shuttle on its fourth mission, its Long March 2F rocket lifting off from its Jiuquan spaceport in northwest China.

No word on how long Shenlong will remain in orbit. All China’s state-run press would reveal is that it is performing “technological verification” in orbit. That state-run press also said nothing about where the rocket’s lower stages, using very toxic hypergolic fuels, crashed inside China.

SpaceX today resumed launches after its own weeklong pause, caused as the company investigated why the upper stage on the February 2nd launch did not complete its de-orbit burn as planned. The company has released no information on the results of that investigation, but apparently it was satisfied with the results to resume launches. It successfully placed 25 more Starlink satellites in orbit today, its Falcon 9 rocket lifting off from Vandenberg Space Force Base in California.

The first stage completed its 13th flight, landing on a drone ship in the Pacific.

The 2026 launch race:

15 SpaceX
7 China
2 Rocket Lab
1 Russia

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Isaacman issues directive to shift power back to NASA and away from private sector

11:51 am

Jared Isaacman, in announcing this directive
Jared Isaacman, in announcing this directive

NASA administrator Jared Isaacman yesterday issued a major three-part directive which he claimed would save more than a billion dollars at NASA while allowing the agency to “regain its core competencies in technical, engineering, and operational excellence”.

The plan could actually backfire, however, as it appears to shift power and control back to NASA and away from private sector.

First, Isaacman wants to eliminate much of the outside contracting NASA now relies on, bringing that work back into the agency itself. Second, he wants eliminate “restrictive clauses that prevent us from doing our own work and addressing intellectual property barriers that have tied our hands.” Third, he wants to “restore in-house engineering,” having more work done by NASA engineers instead of depending on outside contractors.

To some extent, there is value in all these changes, because in many cases NASA employees use the policy of using contractors to outsource their entire work load, so they can sit and do practically nothing.

Overall however this directive could very well squelch the present renaissance in commercial space, because it will put NASA much more in control of everything. Rather than simply being a customer buying the products built and owned by the private sector (ie, the American people) — the capitalism model — the directive demands that NASA run things, the centralized Soviet-style top-down government model.

This aspect is best illustrated by the second part of his directive. Many contractors, such as SpaceX, do not wish to reveal everything about their product designs to NASA, because then it becomes public and can be stolen by their competitors. By requiring companies to release all proprietary data, those companies will no longer own that data, and thus will no longer be as easily able to benefit from its development. This will discourage private investment. It will also once again centralize development at NASA. Rather than getting multiple ideas and innovation from multiple companies, everything will funnel into the ideas NASA managers and engineers come up with.

Isaacman has come to this directive after spending his first two months as administrator delving into how the agency is operating. But he has gotten the solution entirely backwards. Rather than centralize and expand the work done inside NASA, thus justifying its large workforce that Isaacman has found isn’t doing much, wouldn’t it be better to simply eliminate those government jobs entirely? Trim NASA down to its essentials, and let the American people, not the government, come up with what they need and want in space.

Isaacman is not doing this however. Instead, he is apparently working to rebuild the NASA empire, so that it can once again design all, own all, and control all. That was how things were during the shuttle era, and the result was that for almost a half century, America went nowhere in space.

My doubts and concerns about Isaacman and his priorities, which started during his first nomination hearings, have only increased. Despite being a man who made billions in the free private sector, he increasingly appears to be someone eager to build a government empire to laud over everyone.

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India picks landing site for its Chandrayaan-4 lunar sample return mission

10:22 am

Landing sites at the Moon's South Pole

Scientists at India’s space agency ISRO have now picked [pdf] a preliminary landing site for its planned Chandrayaan-4 lunar sample return mission, scheduled to launch in 2028.

[Four] sites of Mons Mouton area was fully characterised with respect to terrain characteristics using high resolution OHRC multiview image datasets and it was found that 1km x 1km area around MM-4 (-84.289, 32.808) contains the less hazard percentage, mean slope of 5°, Mean height of 5334m and most number of hazard free grids of size 24m x 24m. Hence MM-4 can be considered for the potential site of Chandrayaan-4 mission.

The study area of all four sites is indicated on the map to the right by the red dot labeled “Chandrayaan-4”. This mountain, Mons Mouton, is essentially a flat plateau between the numerous craters in the south pole region (many with permanently shadowed craters). Intuitive Machines second lander, Athena, attempted a landing there last year, and tipped over, as did that company’s first lander, Odysseus, both indicated in green. Astrobotic’s Griffin lander (yellow) is targeting this mountain also, hopefully to launch later this year.

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Midnight repost: How the localized nature of Democrat vote tampering will influence the 2022 election

11:59 pm

The news during the past few weeks revealing scads of new evidence proving the 2020 presidential election was stolen from Donald Trump in Georgia reminded me of my 2022 essay, now reposted below. What I described in that essay was the exact tactic the Democrats used in Georgia, most specifically in Fulton County that covers the heavily Democratic Party dominated city of Atlanta. In some parts of that county Democrats were so dominant that they could work under the radar, and fudge the vote aggressively.

Though a number of my election predictions in this essay turned out wrong, the essay does provide the basics of what happened in 2020, and could still happen in 2028 and beyond, if a real effort is not made to regain some control of this election tampering. And not surprising, the Democrats are now opposing any such reforms with great enthusiasm, using their slander and demagoguery tactics to rile up their base, helped enthusiastically by the propaganda press that works as their public relations arm.

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How the localized nature of Democrat vote tampering will influence the 2022 election

Based on the ample evidence of election fraud, corruption, and vote tampering done repeatedly by Democrats nationwide during the 2020 election, we can expect these politicians and their minions to commit similar election crimes in the upcoming 2022 mid-term elections, especially because the effort by some Republicans to reform their state election systems in the key purple states was so effectively blocked by Democrats, by many quisling Republicans, and by a willing leftist press.

It is however important to understand where that election tampering was done in 2020 in order to understand the election fraud to come, as well as creating a strategy to prevent it. As real estate agents like to say, “Location is everything!”, and it appears this applies to election fraud as well.
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