Tag: Russia

The trench war continues in the Ukraine

12:51 pm

The continuing trench war in Ukraine
For the original maps, go here (April 16, 2023)
and here (July 23, 2023).

My last full update on the Ukraine War, on April 17, 2023, was written about the time that the Russian winter offensive had ended (with generally empty results) and a counter-offensive by the Ukrainians was expected to begin.

At that time I concluded as follows:

The Ukrainians have no hope of getting [sufficient] military aid from the rest of the world. Unless the Russians can bring [vastly larger] numbers to this battlefield, something that seems unlikely based on the present political situation in Russia, it now appears that this war is devolving into a World War I-style trench war. Neither side can make any significant gains militarily, and neither side is willing to negotiate a settlement.

Based on that assessment, I expected the Ukrainian spring/summer offensive to be as ineffective as the Russian winter campaign. This has proven true. The map above, adapted from maps created by the Institute for the Study of War, illustrates the general lack of change in either direction along the entire northern frontline. Though the Ukraine has made some minor gains north and south of Bakmut (as noted in ISW’s July 23, 2023 update), it has not succeeded in recapturing the city. Meanwhile, the Russians have made some minor gains to the north, west of the cities Svatova and Kreminna.

Similarly, though the Ukraine has made some small gains along the southern frontline (compare this April 16th map with this July 23rd map), none of those gains have been of any great significance. The Ukraine’s long pause in offensive operations, from November 2022 until April 2023, allowed the Russians to build a deep and extensive defensive set-up, including many minefields that have slowed Ukrainian advances to barely a crawl.

In addition, it appears that the flooding from the destruction of the Kakhovka Dam in the south has almost entirely benefited the Russians, blocking what appears to have been a major Ukrainian plan to invade across the Dneiper River. Since the dam break, the Ukraine has been pushing at the one major bridge still standing, but with no real success. Since the Ukrainians do not appear to have the ability to make an amphibious assault, the Russians need only defend this one bridge, and have so far been able to.

In its June 14, 2023 update, ISW noted the following about the Russian defensive setup:
» Read more

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ESA to issue contract for new lander for its Franklin Mars rover

10:23 am

According to the head of the European Space Agency (ESA), it plans to issue a contract for new lander for its Franklin Mars rover in the next few months, replacing the Russian lander that was lost when ties with that country were broken after it invaded the Ukraine.

Josef Aschbacher, the director general of the European Space Agency (ESA), says the agency will soon release a contract opportunity to design the ExoMars mission’s lander, to replace the Russian one lost when their partnership severed in 2022. “We will issue a contract for the development of the lander, and this will go out soon, in the next few months or so,” Aschbacher told Space.com July 1, hours after the Euclid “dark universe” mission launched here. “This is all in full preparation.”

Aschbacher’s wording is vague enough to leave open the possibility that ESA is considering hiring one of the many private companies from the U.S. and Japan to build it. It is also possible it is waiting to see if India’s Chandrayaan-3 lands successfully on the Moon after its launch this week. If so, India could possibly get that contract.

The present targeted launch date for Franklin is 2028, so there is plenty of time for another lander to be built.

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Russians launch weather satellite and 42 smallsats

9:29 am

Russians today successfully launched a Russian weather satellite plus 42 smallsats on a Soyuz-2 rocket, lifting off from Vostochny in Russia’s far east.

Almost all of the secondary payloads were Russian. The one exception known was a demo cubesat from the United Arab Emirates (UAE), apparently built by its own engineers and flown to test their growing capabilities. Previous UAE satellites and probes have previously been built by others and used to train UAE engineers.

The leaders in the 2023 launch race:

43 SpaceX
24 China
9 Russia
5 Rocket Lab

American private enterprise now leads China in successful launches 49 to 24 in the national rankings, and the entire world combined 49 to 41, with SpaceX by itself still leading the rest of the world, excluding other American companies, 43 to 41.

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Russia gets a launch contract!

9:31 am

In what has become a very rare event, Russia’s state-run press today announced that Roscosmos has won a launch contract for its Soyuz-2 rocket from the United Arab Emirates (UAE).

“On June 27th at 3:34 p.m. UAE time [2:34 Moscow time], [UAE’s] MBR Space Centre will launch its maiden mission, PHI-Demo, from Russia’s Vostochny Cosmodrome using the Soyuz-2 rocket as part of the Payload Hosting Initiative,” the media office said in a statement.

The statement says that the initiative, jointly led by MBRSC [UAE’s space agency] and the United Nations Office for Outer Space Affairs (UNOOSA), is aimed at providing space access and hastening the sustainable progression of novel space technologies.

The satellite will be a secondary payload on the launch of a Russian weather satellite.

It seems this UN office wants to help the Russians, and is working to encourage other nations to use its rockets to get into space. Because of Russia’s invasion of the Ukraine, it has lost all of its international launch business. UNOOSA is apparently working to recover Russia some of that business.

The UAE meanwhile appears to be trying to light the candle from both ends, working extensively with NASA and American private companies while also attempting to partner with Russia and China.

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A private Russian rocket?

9:01 am

According to two short stories in the Russian state-run press (here and here), a private Russian company, dubbed SR Space, is developing a private orbital rocket, and has already completed two launches of a test rocket, though neither launch reached suborbital space.

It is now assembling its first suborbital rocket intended to reach space.

As the SR Space press office specified for TASS, the new sub-orbital rocket is set for its launch at the end of the year. “The launch is scheduled for the end of the current year to deliver a signal transmitter payload,” the press office said. The transmitter’s signal sent to Earth is expected to be received by drones engineered by the company. “This is necessary to test interaction with remotely piloted aircraft systems and the technology of their remote control and flight control of a swarm in automatic mode,” it explained.

This will be the first launch of a private sub-orbital rocket in Russia to an altitude of over 100 km (the altitude where outer space begins). The carrier rocket will measure 5.17 meters in length and 0.45 meters in diameter and weigh 253 kg.

SR Space appears to be the same kind of pseudo-company that China allows. It has obtained private funding, and is operating with some independence hoping to win contracts from the Russian government in order to earn a profit. At the same time, it without doubt does nothing without that government’s permission and approval, and can be taken over at any time by that government, as happened to Russia’s last commercial rocket company S7 that wanted to use the Sea Launch ocean platform to fly commercial launches.

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Who blew up the dam in the Ukraine?

12:14 pm

section of ISW map
Taken from ISW’s report on June 6, 2023. Click for original.

Since the news broke yesterday that someone had blown up the Nova Kakhovka dam on the Dnipro River, there has been endless speculation by numerous pundits attempting to pin the blame. It seems that half say Russia, and half say the Ukraine.

Let me provide my readers the answer right up front: We as yet haven’t got the foggiest idea who did it.

Why am I so sure? Because in reviewing all the information I can glean from many different sources, it appears both sides had good reasons to do it, as well as good reasons to not want it to happen at all. Let’s list those reasons.
» Read more

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Russia to launch Luna-25 on August 11, 2023

9:23 am


Click for interactive map.

According to reports in Russia’s state run press, the new launch date for its Luna-25 lander to the Moon has now been scheduled for August 11, 2023.

The launch of an automatic space probe to the Moon, the Luna-25, is scheduled for August 11 this year, the tour operator RocketTrip has said on its website. “August 11 is the launch date,” the website says in the section devoted to the tour to the Vostochny spaceport for the launch of the Luna-25.

The launch had been scheduled for July. The one month delay was announced last week, with no explanation.

The map shows landing locations of three landers that are all scheduled for launch in the next four months. All are targeting spots near the Moon’s south pole (the white cross).

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Russian communications satellite in trouble

9:41 am

A ten-year old Russian Ekspress geosynchronous communications satellite in early June developed problems that have forced engineers to shut down much of its capabilities.

The problem was similar to issues experienced in 2020 on a second similar Ekspress orbiting geosynchronous communications satellite, suggesting both satellites had the same design flaw.

For Russia the problem is made much more serious because its invasion of the Ukraine has made it impossible to replace this satellite.

The latest impact on Russian satellite communications capacity came at a time when the established production model for the Ekspress satellite family, relying on Western suppliers, had been disrupted by the Kremlin’s escalation of the war against Ukraine in 2022, likely resulting in severe delays if not a complete stop in the development of this type of spacecraft in Russia.

In other words, Russia has lost significant communications capacity, and does not have a way to replace that capacity because of the sanctions against it imposed because of its invasion. Once again, Putin’s idiotic war in the Ukraine has caused nothing but disaster for Russia.

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Russia delays launch of its Luna-25 mission one month to August

8:55 am


Click for interactive map.

Russia today announced that it is delaying the July launch of its Luna-25 mission to August.

No reason for the delay was revealed. The mission itself has been under development for almost a quarter century, with numerous delays. It will be the first lunar probe by Russia since the 1970s.

The lunar mission will be launched atop a Soyuz-2.1b carrier rocket with a Fregat booster from the Vostochny space center in the Russian Far East. Under the lunar project, the Luna-25 automatic station will be launched for studies in the area of the lunar south pole. The lander is set to touch down in the area of the Boguslawsky crater.

The green dot on the map shows this crater, with the white cross the Moon’s south pole. The other two missions are also targeting launches this summer, with Chandrayaan-3 set for a July launch and Nova-C in late September.

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Russia launches Progress with cargo to ISS

9:18 am

Russia today used its Soyuz-2 rocket to launch a new Progress freighter to ISS, with its docking to the station to occur shortly.

The leaders in the 2023 launch race:

34 SpaceX
19 China
7 Russia
4 Rocket Lab

The U.S. still leads China 38 to 19 in the national rankings, and the entire world combined 38 to 32. SpaceX by itself now trails the entire world, including American companies, 34 to 36.

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Two Russian astronauts shift airlock on ISS during 7-hour spacewalk

9:58 am

With the help of the new European robot arm on the Russian half of ISS, two Russian astronauts completed a 7-hour spacewalk yesterday, successfully shifting a Russian airlock module to the new Nauka module on ISS.

The cosmonauts began their spacewalk at 11:01 p.m. Moscow time on Wednesday and spent seven hours and ten minutes outside the International Space Station (ISS). The main objective of their extravehicular activities was to transfer an airlock from the Rassvet module to the Nauka multi-purpose laboratory module. It was done with the help of the ERA robotic arm under the remote control of cosmonaut Andrey Fedyaev, who stayed aboard the ISS.

The work is part of an ongoing series of spacewalks required to complete the installation of Nauka to the station.

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China once again outlines its lunar base plans; Russia out? Project delayed?

9:38 am

China/Russian Lunar base roadmap
The original Chinese-Russian lunar base plan, from June 2021.

In outlining today China’s long term plans for establishing a manned lunar base near the south pole of the Moon, the project’s chief designer, Wu Weiren, revealed several changes in the program, almost all of which were indicated by what he did not say than what he did.

The graph to the right was released when this program was first announced in June 2021. At that time the plan was announced as a partnership of China and Russia, and was aiming to begin intermittent manned operations on the Moon in 2036.

According to Wu’s presentation today however, China apparently no longer considers Russia to be a full equal partner. It appears instead that Russia was mentioned as part of Wu’s effort to encourage many other countries to join the project. As reported by China’s state-run press:

During Tuesday’s event, Wu also highlighted the cooperation initiative for countries, organizations, and scientists worldwide to join the construction of the research station. In 2021, the China National Space Administration (CNSA) released a partnership guideline for the International Lunar Research Station.

That the state-run press made no mention of Russia in this description indicates strongly China’s devaluation of Russia’s contribution. This devaluation is not a surprise. As I noted in 2021,

[B]ased on Russia’s recent track record in the past two decades for promised space projects, we have no guarantee they will fly as scheduled, or even fly at all.

Since then Russia invaded the Ukraine and has suffered economically because of it. Its own first contribution to this partnership, Luna-25, has been delayed repeatedly, with its present launch now scheduled for July. It was always obvious that Russia — in its present state — could not match China, nor was it likely it would meet its promised targets.

Wu’s presentation also indicated that the third phase, when intermittent manned operations will begin, has been delayed from 2036 to 2040.

Overall, however, the Chinese plan remains stable and rational, and is likely to be carried out with reasonable success, based on how the country proposed and then achieved construction of its space station. The station was built essentially as described by the plan, with only a delay of a few years.

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The developing trench war in Ukraine

4:55 pm

The developing trench war in Ukraine
For the original maps, go here (November 16, 2022) and here (April 16, 2023)

In my last update on the Ukraine War on November 16, 2022, I concluded that the stream of territorial gains by the Ukraine in the previous two months suggested that it was on the march and that in the coming months it would slowly and steadily regain territory from the Russians.

That analysis was wrong, at least in the short run. First, I failed to recognize that the Ukraine would need time to consolidate its large gains in September and October. Continuing the push apparently was beyond its capabilities without significant restocking of its troops and their equipment.

Second, by mid-November the Russians managed to halt the panicked retreat of its army, and forced it to re-establish reasonable lines of defense. It soon announced plans for a winter offensive, with the goal of capturing, at a minimum, the remaining territory of both the Donetsk and Luhansk Oblasts that either had never been taken or had been lost during the Ukraine’s successful fall offensive.

In the subsequent five months, the Russians have pushed hard, and gotten little for their effort. The map above, clipped from detailed maps produced daily by the Institute for the Study of War (ISW), compares the frontlines on November 16, 2022 with the present lines on April 16, 2022. Russian-held territory is indicated in pink, Ukrainian territory is either white or blue, blue indicating territory recaptured from Russia. The striped region is territory Russia grabbed in 2014.

Except for some gains in the south, the Russians have moved that frontline almost not at all.
» Read more

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Frank Rubio’s flight to ISS will exceed a year, setting a new American record

10:25 am

Frank Rubio
Frank Rubio

Initially, Frank Rubio’s first flight in space was intended to be a standard six month mission on ISS. Launched on September 21, 2022 on a Soyuz-2 rocket inside a Soyuz capsule, the plan was for him and his two crewmates to return in March, 2023.

Then their Soyuz capsule developed a leak in its coolant system in December 2022. Not knowing if it was safe to use this capsule with humans inside, a replacement unmanned Soyuz capsule was launched by the Russians to ISS in February 2023, with the leaking Soyuz capsule brought back unmanned earlier this week.

The Russians however decided that this new capsule, designed for a six month mission, would stay in orbit for six months, so that it would be used to its planned capability. This decision also hinged on the lack of a new crew arriving on this new capsule. If it brought Rubio and his crew home earlier, ISS would be short three crew members for at least several months.

The planned return date, September 27, 2023, now means that Rubio’s mission will be at least 371 days long, making him the first American to fly a full year in space. Previously NASA falsely touted Scott Kelly’s 340-day mission as a year-long mission, when it never was. Later, Mark Vande Hei’s mission, also launched on a Soyuz, was extended to 355 days, still just short of a year, because the Russians wanted to send a film crew to ISS and return them on the capsule which Vande Hei was intended to come home on.

Whether Rubio truly does spend a year in space however remains uncertain. Two different Russian spacecraft — the Soyuz and a Progress freighter — have developed this coolant leak in the past three months. If this problem is a systemic manufacturing error, which Russia is now investigating, the decision might be to return the new capsule sooner than planned, out of fear it will develop its own leak. We shall likely find out sometime in the next three months.

If Rubio does end up in space for a full year, however, it will likely be a dream come true, having become an astronaut in 2017 but waiting six years for his first flight.

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Russia’s Soyuz-2 rocket launches classified military satellite

11:06 pm

Russia today successfully launched a classified military satellite, using its Soyuz-2 rocket lifting off from Plesetsk spaceport in northern Russia.

The rocket traveled north over the Arctic Ocean, so its first stage fell harmlessly into the ocean.

The leaders in the 2023 launch race:

21 SpaceX
11 China
6 Russia
3 Rocket Lab

American private enterprise still leads China 24 to 11 in the national rankings, and the entire world combined 24 to 21. SpaceX now trails the rest of the world, including other American companies, 21 to 24.

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Leaking Soyuz capsule returns unmanned to Earth

9:06 am

The Soyuz capsule with a leaking coolant system successfully landed in Kazakhstan today, returning to Earth unmanned because of that leak.

Russian engineers will now analyze whether a crew would have been able to come home safely in that spacecraft, despite its damaged coolant system, which will provide information for future such problems. They will not be able to study the leak itself, however, as it was part of the capsule’s service module, which separates upon return and burns up in the atmosphere.

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Russia launches military satellite

9:50 am

Using its Soyuz-2 rocket, Russia today launched a classified military satellite into orbit, lifting off from its Plesetsk spaceport in northern Russia.

The rocket flew north over the Arctic, with its first and second stages falling into the ocean.

The leaders in the 2023 launch race:

19 SpaceX
11 China
5 Russia
2 Rocket Lab

American private enterprise still leads China in launches 21 to 11 in the national rankings, and the entire world combined 21 to 18. SpaceX now trails the entire world combined, including American companies, 19 to 20.

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Russia’s Luna-25 unmanned lunar lander to be delivered to Vostochny in early June

10:23 am


Click for interactive map.

According to Russia’s state-run press, its Luna-25 unmanned lunar lander will finally be delivered to its launchsite in Vostochny in the first ten days of June 2023, after many years of delays.

The press announcement made no mention of a launch date after delivery, though according to an earlier report Roscosmos is aiming for a July 13, 2023 launch date.

The landing site on the Moon is Boguslawsky crater, as indicated by the green dot on the map to the right. If it occurs as planned, it will join three other landers now targeting 2023 lunar landings, Ispace’s Hakuto-R1, Intuitive Machines Nova-C, and India’s Chandrayaan-3, with three of four landing in the Moon’s south pole regions. The white cross marks the location of the south pole itself, on the rim of Shackleton Crater.

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Russia and China launch satellites

9:20 am

Two launches today in Russia and China.

First China used its Long March 2C rocket to launch a “remote sensing satellite” into orbit. No other information about the satellite was released. Nor was any information about whether the rocket’s first stage landed near habitable areas.

Next Russia used its Proton rocket to launch a classified satellite, likely a military surveillance satellite, into orbit. Like China Russia launches from an interior spaceport, with its first stage falling “in Karaganda Region of Kazakhstan,” with the second stage landing in drop zones in Russia. Russia, which has been doing this regularly for more than a half century, has always done a good job either avoiding habitable areas with the first stage crash, or keeping such stories out of the international press.

The 2023 launch race:

16 SpaceX
9 China
4 Russia
1 Rocket Lab
1 Japan
1 India

American private enterprise still leads China 17 to 9 in the national rankings, and the entire world combined 17 to 15. SpaceX alone is now tied with the entire world, including all other American companies, 16 all.

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Russia considering bringing Soyuz launched on February 23rd home earlier

9:35 am

According to unnamed sources in the Russian press, Roscosmos officials are considering bringing the Soyuz capsule launched on February 23rd to ISS back to Earth in June rather than September, while moving up the launch of the next Soyuz manned mission.

As noted by space journalist Anatoly Zak:

The existence of such plans indicated that specialists had still been concerned about the possibility of a critical leak in the thermal control system of the fresh crew vehicle similar to those that hit two previous transport ships. Such change in schedule would also debunk the official explanation of previous two accidents by Roskosmos and NASA as caused by meteors rather than production defects.

The two previous coolant leaks occurred about three months after launch. Bringing the Soyuz home in June would get it home in about three and a half months, suggesting the Russians are no longer confident their Soyuz and Progress spacecraft can withstand six months in space.

If this plan is adopted it will also put less strain on the crew slated to come home on that Soyuz. Their mission has been planned for six months. Extending it to a full year without any prior preparation risks serious health issues.

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ISS maneuvers to avoid satellite

9:02 am

Though a collision was unlikely, Russian engineers fired the engines of a docked Progress freighter on March 6, 2023 to adjust ISS’s orbits in order to guaranteethat an Earth-observation satellite would fly past harmlessly.

At approximately 7:42 a.m. (12:42 GMT), thrusters on the Progress 83 resupply vessel currently docked with the International Space Station (ISS) fired for a little more than six minutes, raising the station’s orbit to prevent the potential collision, NASA said in a blog post (opens in new tab).

The satellite in question appears to have been an Argentinian Earth-observation satellite launched in 2020, according to Sandra Jones, from NASA’s Johnson Space Center. In a tweet, Dr. Jonathan McDowell, astronomer and astrophysicist at the Harvard–Smithsonian Center for Astrophysics, narrowed the possible candidates down to Nusat-17, noting the constellation’s orbital decay.

The article at the link includes a nice graph showing the number of times per year engineers have had to do this since 1999. The number of such maneuvers ranges from 0 to 5 per year, with no clear trend up or down. That lack of a trend suggests the constant howls claiming that space junk is a growing problem might be a bit overstated. This is not to say it isn’t a problem, merely that the problem might not be as severe as some claim.

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A Russian Mars airplane?

9:26 am

According to Russia’s state run press, a team of engineers at the Moscow Aviation Institute (MAI), working in partnership with engineers from India, are developing a fixed-wing robotic airplane for use on Mars.

The work on the Marsoplane began in April 2022 after the funding request was approved by the Russian Science Fund. Karpovich believes that the team of scientists will be able to successfully test the technology demonstrator by the end of next year. “By the end of 2024, the Russian side will have to publish ten articles, build and successfully test the technology demonstrator,” she said. [emphasis mine]

It would be nice if this project succeeded but do not get your hopes up. Note the emphasis on the number of papers published. This indicates the goal of this project is not actually building this airplane, but to maintain the careers of its engineers here on Earth. In fact, the whole article has this feel, which by the way is consistent with almost all Russian space projects for the past two decades. Lots of talk, some engineering tests, but nothing real ever gets built that actually flies.

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Russians launch unmanned Soyuz to ISS

5:34 pm

The Russians today successfully launched an unmanned Soyuz capsule to ISS to replace the capsule damaged by a coolant leak in December.

The new capsule will dock to ISS in two days, on February 25th. Then on February 27th a Falcon 9 rocket will launch four astronauts on its Endurance reusable Dragon capsule. The damaged Soyuz capsule will be de-orbited shortly thereafter.

Because of the new Soyuz was intended to remain in orbit with its crew until September, Roscosmos and NASA agreed to keep the crew from the damaged Soyuz on ISS until then, making the mission of these two Russians and American Frank Rubio about a year long. There is a chance Rubio could set a new record for the longest American mission, depending on the exact day his mission returns.

The 2023 launch race:

12 SpaceX
6 China
3 Russia
1 Rocket Lab
1 Japan
1 India

American private enterprise still leads China 13 to 6 in the national rankings, and the entire world combined 13 to 11. SpaceX alone still leads the entire world 12 to 11.

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February 23, 2023 Quick space links

3:53 pm

Courtesy of BtB’s stringer Jay.

 

 

 

 

  • Russia now targets a July 13, 2023 launch date for its Luna-25 Moon lander

    • Though this mission has been delayed endlessly, and Russia has also been forced to delay its later planned unmanned lunar probes due to its lack of certain components formerly obtained from the west before its invasion of the Ukraine, I now expect this launch to happen on that date or reasonable close to it.

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Russians release image of coolant system hole in Progress

1:47 pm

Comparing holes in Soyuz and Progress spacecraft

Roscosmos officials today released a close-up image taken on February 17, 2023 of what they think is the hole in the Progress freighter that caused a leak in its coolant system on February 11th.

The picture was taken shortly after the freighter undocked from ISS to be de-orbited over the Pacific. To the right is a comparison of pictures taken of that Progress hole and the hole that occurred in December on the Soyuz spacecraft docked to ISS. The comparison was first created by this Twitter user but rearranged by me to post here. The red circle in the bottom image marks what the Russians identify as the Progress hole. The top image shows the hole that caused an almost identical leak in a Soyuz capsule in December. The Russians say the Progress hole is about 12 millimeters in diameter, and to their mind was caused “by an external influence,” same as the Soyuz hole.

This conclusion however is suspect. If you look at the best resolution version of the picture of the Progress hole (available here), there appears to be material surrounding the hole, as if the hole broke from the inside, not from an outside impact. (Because the resolution is poor, however, this conclusion is uncertain.)

More telling is that, as both pictures show, the two holes are almost in the exact same place on these two spacecraft. As noted by the Twitter user who first made this picture comparison, “I can’t even calculate the odds of 2 spacecraft being struck in almost the same place, within weeks of each other.”

That the Soyuz leak caused so much staining and the Progress leak has none is also puzzling.

Were these leaks both caused by the impact of a micrometeoriod or piece of space junk, as the Russians now claim? Or was one by sabotage or sloppy production work on the ground? Or were both? One impact might make sense, but two at almost the same spot? It defies logic or the percentages for two impacts so similar to occur so close together in time.

Sabotage however in the same area is very conceivable, especially considering that the Russians have never explained the cause of the hole that was drilled in a Soyuz capsule in 2018, a hole that was drilled and then patched, before launch.

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Inspection of leaking Progress after undocking detects no obvious damage

1:10 pm

After undocking the Progress freighter from ISS yesterday, Russian astronauts on the station rolled it so that all sides of its service module could be photographed and inspected in the hope of spotting the leak in its coolant system that sprung on February 11th.

No visual damage has been detected at the Progress MS-21 spacecraft after it undocked from the International Space Station. “After the Progress MS-21 cargo spacecraft undocked from the International Space Station’s Poisk mini-research module, footage was made of its exterior surface and no visual damage was detected,” the statement [from Roscosmos] reads.

Initially the Russians postponed its de-orbit as they considered the idea of redocking the freighter to another port on the Russian half of ISS in order to inspect it more closely, but eventually they decided to fore-go that plan and de-orbit it on February 19th, one day later.

In watching the live stream of the undocking and the roll maneuver, I thought I saw a partial reddish-orange stain, similar to the stain around the hole that occurred in the Soyuz capsule in December, but it was mostly hidden behind other equipment and the Russians seemed to not consider this significant.

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Roscosmos will launch unmanned Soyuz to ISS on February 21

5:15 pm

Roscosmos today announced that it will launch the unmanned Soyuz to ISS on February 21st, only a two-day delay after doing a quick inspection of its outer surface for possible damage following the coolant leak of a Progress freighter on February 11th.

BtB’s stringer Jay provided me this translation of the announcement at the link:

The Soyuz MS-23 spacecraft has been checked and is beginning to be prepared for launch. The preparations suspended the day before at Baikonur will resume tomorrow or the day after tomorrow.
The launch is scheduled for the 20th of February.

The ship was inspected. No maliciously drilled holes were found. We decided not to wait any longer. In any case, a refueled ship must either be launched or sent to a museum.

Update: removal of the launch vehicle to the launch pad on February 18, launch on February 21″ [emphasis mine]

The highlighted words are truly intriguing. It appears Roscosmos is desperately trying to convince the world that the repeated recent leaks to Soyuz and Progress spacecraft are not related to sabotage on the ground. At the same, Roscosmos has never told us the results of its investigation into the 2018 hole in a Soyuz capsule that someone drilled and then patched before launch. It seems incredibly unlikely that the two recent leaks in the exterior coolant systems of two different spacecrafts were both caused by impact from a micrometeorite or tiny piece of space junk. Two such impacts could of course occur this frequently, but for both to happen to such similar locations on only Russian spacecraft seems beyond improbable.

Either way, the decision makes some sense. The available lifeboats on ISS right now are really insufficient. Better to get this launched. More important, they had already begun fueling it, and once that is done the clock was running. They have to launch by a certain time.

Meanwhile it would be wise for NASA to begin arranging new emergency lifeboat arrangements with SpaceX as well as Boeing (once it finally gets Starliner operational). Depending on the Russians for even part of this responsibility seems ill advised. If preplanned properly, SpaceX could certainly launch one of its Dragon manned capsules quickly in an emergency.

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First picture of hole that occurred on Soyuz in December

12:55 pm

Hole in First picture of hole that occurred on Soyuz in December

Russia has now released an image taken using the robot arm on ISS of the leak that occurred on its Soyuz capsule docked to ISS in December.

The picture to the right, cropped and reduced to post here, is that image. This is not the coolant leak hole on the Progress freighter on February 11th, this past weekend. As of now no image of that hole has ever been released.

No interpretation of this hole and the stain around it has as yet been released. However, Russia has now postponed the launch of the next Soyuz capsule from February 19th until early March in order “to give investigators time to rule out similar issues in the upcoming mission.” This Soyuz was to launch unmanned to replace the Soyuz that leaked in December and provide the astronauts that launched on that leaking Soyuz a safe lifeboat that they could come home on.

Meanwhile, all communications with ISS have now been shifted to the private channels, so the public cannot hear them.

All these actions strongly suggest that both the Russians and Americans are now seriously considering the possibility of sabotage or damage to the coolant systems on all Russian spacecraft, before they leave the factory and are launched.

ISS as of February 11, 2023

To clarify the situation, the image to the right shows all the spacecraft presently docked to ISS. Progress 82 is the spacecraft that experienced a leak in its coolant system on February 11th. Soyuz-MS22 experienced a leak in its coolant system in December. At the moment the only safe vehicle for returning the seven astronauts on ISS is Crew-5 Dragon, SpaceX’s Endurance spacecraft. Should a major catastrophe occur requiring an immediate evacuation of the station, the plan right now is for five astronauts to come home on Endurance, and two Russians to come home on the damaged Soyuz. (The thinking is that having only two men on board will prevent too much of a temperature rise during the return to Earth because of the lack of its coolant system.)

With the delay in the launch of the replacement Soyuz lifeboat, this emergency plan will be in place for at least three weeks longer.

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Shortly after new Progress freighter docks with ISS, older Progress loses internal pressure

10:42 am

ISS as of February 11, 2023

Shortly after a new Progress freighter docked with ISS early today (shown as Progress 83 in the graphic to the right), the older Progress 82 lost internal pressure, possibly in its coolant system.

On February 11, Roskosmos, citing data from mission control, said that the Progress MS-21 cargo ship docked at the station lost pressure. According to the State Corporation, the hatch connecting the ship’s pressurized compartment with the rest of the station was closed and the vehicle was fully isolated from the ISS’ habitable volume.

…According to unofficial sources, the spacecraft lost all its cooling fluid from its Thermal Control System, SOTR. Several hours after the incident, NASA confirmed that the breach had been limited to the cooling system. At the same time, the US space agency said that the hatches between the cargo ship and the station had remained open, while temperatures and pressures aboard the outpost had remained normal. The subsequent publicly available exchange between the NASA mission control in Houston and a US astronaut Frank Rubio, aboard the ISS, indicated that the coolant system of the Progress MS-21 spacecraft had been completely emptied before the leak stopped.

The report is very unclear. In the first paragraph it suggests the freighter’s atmosphere had leaked out, while its hatches were closed and it was isolated from the station. The second paragraph suggests it only lost pressure and coolant from its coolant system, and the hatches had been open during the event.

Either way, this is the second Russian ferry spacecraft to experience such an event since mid-December, when the Soyuz capsule attached to ISS lost its coolant from what is believed to have been a small impact.

This particular Progress freighter is slated to be undocked from ISS on February 18th, when it will be de-orbited, burning up in the atmosphere over the Pacific. Thus, this leak appears to pose a relatively small risk to the station, as it probably has already been filled with station garbage and was likely ready for disposal anyway.

This incident however raises larger concerns. If it was caused by an impact from an external object, either micrometeorite or space junk, it suggests that the station might face a new increased risk of such events, quite possibly from debris from the Russian anti-satellite test in November 2021. As of November 2022 it was estimated that there were 444 objects still in orbit, with all but 18 expected to fall back to earth by 2025. It could be that one of those tracked objects hit ISS, or a different object that has not been tracked.

Or possibly we are seeing evidence of some quality control problem in the construction of these spacecraft, in Russia. Russia and NASA have still not revealed the results of the investigation into the hole that was drilled into the hull of a Soyuz capsule in 2018. Could there be some sabotage going on the ground in Russia that has not been identified that is designed to cause such leaks sometime after launch?

Some clarity on this issue is now becoming essential.

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