Tag: Russia

NASA inspector general: Air leak in Zvezda module on ISS increased significantly in 2024

12:14 pm

Figure 3 from IG report
Figure 3 from IG report, annotated by me to show Zvezda location.

According to a new report [pdf] from NASA’s inspector general, the air leaks in the Russian Zvezda module on ISS increased significantly in 2024, reaching “the highest level of risk in its risk management system,” and more than six times the normal planned leak rate for the station (see the box in the lower corner of the figure above).

[I]n February 2024 NASA identified an increase in the leak rate, and the Agency and Roscosmos continue to assess the risk that the increase poses to the module’s structure. In May and June 2024, ISS Program and Roscosmos officials met to discuss heightened concerns with the increased leak rate. The ISS Program subsequently elevated the Service Module [Zvezda] Transfer Tunnel leak risk to the highest level of risk in its risk management system. According to NASA, Roscosmos is confident they will be able to monitor and close the hatch to the Service Module prior to the leak rate reaching an untenable level. However, NASA and Roscosmos have not reached an agreement on the point at which the leak rate is untenable.

To mitigate potential impacts from the air leaks, NASA and Roscosmos continuously monitor leak rates and close the hatch to the Service Module when access is not required, sealing the module to minimize air loss while isolating the leak. While it is possible for the ISS to function if the hatch is closed permanently, it could impact cargo delivery because there would be one less cargo delivery port. Closing the hatch permanently would also necessitate additional propellent to maintain the Station’s altitude and attitude. Although the root cause of the leak remains unknown, both agencies have narrowed their focus to internal and external welds. As of June 2024, there was no indication of other leaks on the Station.

The transfer tunnel is the section of Zvezda that connects it to ISS. Though the report is very careful not to say anything specific about the cause of the leak, the evidence strongly suggests it is caused by stress fractures in the module’s hull, fractures that indicate a serious and dangerous long term issue. The tunnel however cannot be replaced without replacing Zvezda, and Zvezda cannot be replaced without detaching the entire Russian section from ISS, something that is likely very difficult and maybe impossible to do. And even if it could be replaced, Russia does not have the capability or the money right now to build a replacement.

The report also noted that keeping the station operating through 2030 faces other challenges, including the lack of redundancy for getting cargo and crew to ISS, the increasing difficulty of obtaining spare parts for the station, the long term damage from micrometeoroids and orbital debris, and finally, the unknown commitment of Russia, which at this point has not yet decided whether it will remain a partner after 2028.

All these issues underline the need for the four American private commercial space stations to reach orbit and get operational before 2028.

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New Russian missile explodes during test

9:29 am

According to orbital imagery, it appears that a new Russian missile that has been under development for more than a dozen years but has not yet completed a full test flight, exploded sometime between September 20th and September 21st during a test launch.

Satellite images from Planet Labs of the Sarmat’s Yubileinaya launch silo in Plesetsk posted on Sept. 21, 2024, showed a major crater left by an apparent rocket explosion, along with multiple fires just east of the site. The fires were also confirmed by NASA’s satellite-based Fire Information for Resource Management System, FIRMS, within 24 hours of Sept. 21, 2024. At least four fire engines speeding to the facility were also discernable on satellite images, confirming that these pictures had been taken immediately after the incident on September 21.

The rocket’s development — which claims will be far more capable than its present missiles — appears to have been plagued with problems and delays. It is also a strange missile, in that it is liquid-fueled, something that western militaries abandoned for missiles more than a half century ago. Solid-fueled missiles are simpler and can be stored ready-to-launch for long periods. Fueling and launching a liquid-fueled rocket quickly is not really practical during a wartime emergency.

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Russia’s Angara rocket launches pair of classified military satellites

8:47 am

Russia early today used its Angara-1.2 rocket to launch a pair of classified military satellites, lifting off from its Plesetsk spaceport in northwestern Russia.

The Angara-1.2 is the smallest member of the Angara family of rockets, intended to eventually replace all of Russia’s other rockets. This was that rocket’s third launch, all from Plesetsk. The rocket’s upper stages and fairings fell in Barents Sea.

The leader board in the 2024 launch race remains unchanged.

91 SpaceX
38 China
11 Russia
10 Rocket Lab

American private enterprise still leads the rest of the world combined in successful launches 106 to 60, while SpaceX by itself still leads the entire world, including American companies, 91 to 75.

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Russia launches three astronauts to ISS

9:45 am

Russia this morning successfully launched a new crew to ISS, its Soyuz-2 rocket lifting off from Baikonur in Kazakhstan.

With this launch there are now nineteen humans in orbit, a new record. This includes the three Chinese astronauts on China’s Tiangong-3 space station, the four astronauts on the private Polaris Dawn mission, the three astronauts on this Soyuz, and the nine astronauts on ISS (four from a Dragon launch, two from the Starliner launch, and three from a previous Soyuz launch).

The Soyuz capsule will dock with ISS this afternoon.

The leaders in the 2024 launch race:

89 SpaceX
38 China
10 Rocket Lab
10 Russia

American private enterprise still leads the rest of the world combined in successful launches 104 to 58, while SpaceX by itself leads the entire world, including American companies, 89 to 73.

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Russia claims its next unmanned Moon mission, Luna-26, is on schedule

9:09 am

Phase I of China/Russian Lunar base roadmap
The original phase I plan of Chinese-Russian lunar
base plan, from June 2021.

According to Russia’s state-run press, its next unmanned Moon mission, Luna-26, is on schedule for a planned launch in 2027, though that press also claims the launch may happen in 2026 instead.

The problem with this claim is that Russia had for years said that this lunar orbiter would launch by 2025. As expected, the mission has not launched on time, as have all of Russia’s 21st century lunar exploration plans. For example, the previous lunar mission, the Luna-25 lunar lander, was originally supposed to land on the Moon in 2021, was not launched until 2023, and ended up crashing on the Moon when the spacecraft did not function properly during a engine burn in lunar orbit.

In the first phase of the so-called China-Russian partnership to explore the Moon, is shown by the 2021 graph to the right, China continues to do all the heavy lifting, and do so pretty much on the schedule predicted. Russian meanwhile continues to do what I predicted back in 2021, get nothing done on time and when launched have problems.

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The continuing stalemate in the Ukraine War

12:32 pm

In the past few months the situation in the war between Russia and the Ukraine has had some significant battlefield events that suggested the situation is becoming unstable. First, Russia began an offensive campaign along the northern border of the Ukraine near the Ukrainian city of Kharkiv, pushing back into the same territory it had abandoned during its major retreat and defeats in the fall of 2022.

This offensive, combined with the gains Russia has made in the past few months in eastern Ukraine, suggested that it had completely recovered from those 2022 defeats, and was now moving forward in its effort to conquer the Ukraine in its entirety. At least, that’s how it seemed from a cursory outsider’s view.

Then, last month, the Ukraine launched its own offensive across the border into Russia’s Kursk region, the first time any Russian territory had been invaded since Russia’s unprovoked invasion of the Ukraine in February 2022. That same cursory view suggested that the situation was becoming unstable, and that Russia now faced a serious problem of its own.

To me, the only way to find out how serious these changes are since my last Ukraine War update six months ago, in February 2024, is to do another, and to compare the territorial changes on a map, as I have done every time previously.

Not surprisingly, a look at the map brings clarity to the situation.
» Read more

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Russia launches Progress cargo spacecraft to ISS

9:34 pm

Russia tonight (August 15th in Russia) successfully launched a Progress freight to ISS, its Soyuz-2 rocket lifting off from the Baikonur spaceport in Kazakhstan.

Rendezvous and docking with ISS scheduled for August 17, 2024 in the early morning.

The leaders in the 2024 launch race:

80 SpaceX
33 China
10 Rocket Lab
9 Russia

American private enterprise still leads the rest of the world combined in successful launches 95 to 50, while SpaceX by itself still leads the entire world combined, including American companies, 80 to 65.

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August 7, 2024 Quick space links

3:49 pm

Courtesy of BtB’s stringer Jay. This post is also an open thread. I welcome my readers to post any comments or additional links relating to any space issues, even if unrelated to the links below.

 

 

  • Another relatively boring press release of an image from Europe’s Mars Expresss orbiter

    • I post so few images from Mars Express because Europe releases so few, and when they do, they don’t usually provide enough good information to understand what one is looking at. For example, this release never really tells us the global location of the picture, info that is crucial to understanding it. I could look it up, but the image itself is just not that interesting.

 

 

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Russia releases timeline for its Russian Orbital Station to replace its ISS operations

9:03 am

Tabletop Model of Russian Space Station
A tabletop model of the station unveiled in 2022

Earlier this month Russia released a detailed timeline for the construction of its Russian Orbital Station (ROS) to replace its ISS operations once the older station is retired and de-orbited, with the first station module supposedly launched in 2027 and the station completed by 2033.

Russia is set to launch the future orbital outpost’s first research and energy module in 2027, Roscosmos said. Roscosmos also plans to launch the universal nodal, gateway and baseline modules by 2030 to form the core orbital station together with the research and energy module, it said. “At the second stage, from 2031 to 2033, the station is set to expand by docking two special-purpose modules (TsM1 and TsM2),” Roscosmos said.

The project is estimated at 608.9 billion rubles (about $6.98 billion).

This project has been discussed in Russia since the middle of the last decade, and as usual for Russian government-run space projects, it has limped along with little but powerpoint proposals and small demo models (as shown on the right) for years. The impending end of ISS and its replacement by commercial stations (that will not include any Russian participation) seems to have finally helped get the project started for real.

Don’t expect this above schedule however to meet its target dates. Russia’s track record since the fall of the Soviet Union is that such projects usually take two decades to launch, not three years.

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Russia arrests three Europeans this week for trespassing at Baikonur spaceport

10:23 am

Russia this week arrested three Europeans, two Dutch and one Belgium, for sneaking onto the Baikonur spaceport in Kazakhstan illegally.

This is the second time this year and the third time since 2022 that Russia has caught Europeans attempting to enter the spaceport illegally. In June one of those trespassers died in the attempt from dehydration. It appears it has become “a thing” to do, mostly by social media types who then post videos of their travels.

Russia and Kazakhstan however invite these trespasses because neither makes it easy or even possible to visit the spaceport and see its sights. Its inavailabiity makes it a target, and thus these illegal visits. It would be much better is both countries routinely ran public tours, at very reasonable rates, as NASA does at Cape Canaveral. India’s space agency ISRO meanwhile makes money by selling tickets to view its launches.

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Russian inspector satellite now approaching its eleventh communications satellite

9:22 am

A Russian inspector satellite dubbed Luch-2 and launched in March 2023 is now maneuvering to make a close approach and surveillance of an eleventh commercial communications satellite in geosynchronous orbit.

The company is forecasting that Luch 2’s next object of interest is the Intelsat 1002 communications satellite. “Luch 2 is expected to perform an additional maneuver to stop its drift near Intelsat 1002 on June 28 if it continues its past pattern of behavior,” Slingshot said. This behavior mirrors that of its predecessor, Luch Olymp-K-1, which has been known for similar intelligence-gathering activities.

The close approaches have ranged from 12 miles to 142 miles, with most getting inside 100 miles distance.

It is unlikely Russia is testing robotic maneuvering technology, as it has had this capability since the 1970s. More likely it is testing the ability to intercept communications from such satellites, though it is unknown whether Luch-2 has done so. Visiting multiple satellites would also permit it to test against a wide variety of technology.

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Breakup of defunct Russian satellite forces astronauts on ISS to retreat to lifeboat capsules

10:04 am

Because an old and defunct Russian Earth-observation satellite broke up into about 100 pieces as it began falling back to Earth on June 26, 2024, the astronauts on ISS spent an hour or so today sheltering in the three manned capsules (Endeavour, Starliner, and Soyuz) docked to ISS just in case one of those pieces hit the station.

Nothing hit the station, and the astronauts resumed their normal activities.

One wonders it this action was done simply out of normal caution, or if NASA officials did it to show their confidence in using Starliner as a lifeboat and thus help stem some of the bad publicity the agency is getting for the repeated delays in returning Starliner and its crew back to Earth. I don’t know the exact altitude in which that satellite broke up, but such things usually happen when a satellite dips below 100 miles, well below ISS’s present orbit. If so, there was absolutely no danger at all, and the retreat to the capsules was pure show.

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Slovenia becomes 23rd member nation of the European Space Agency

9:05 am

Formerly part of Yugoslavia and largely aligned with the communist bloc during the Cold War, Slovenia has now signed on to become the 23rd member nation of the European Space Agency (ESA).

Slovenia has been working with ESA since 2008, when it signed a first Cooperation Agreement, followed by a European Cooperation Agreement. This cooperation was strengthened with its accession to associate membership in 2016, which it upgraded in 2020 with a new Agreement for an enhanced Association. This included a provision that after its expiration in 2025, Slovenia can apply for ESA membership.

Slovenia’s membership still needs to be ratified, but that is expected.

Increasingly Putin’s invasion of the Ukraine has proven to be incredibly stupid. It has not only trapped Russia in a quagmire that it can’t easily escape, with victory nowhere in sight, it has caused all of its other neighbors to look west, away from Russia, out of fear of getting invaded themselves. Slovenia is just the most recent example.

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Armenia signs Artemis Accords

5:13 pm

Armenia, formerly part of the Soviet Union, has now joined the American space alliance by signing the Artemis Accords, becoming the 43rd nation to do so.

This announcement came on the same day Armenia’s prime minister announced that the country was also leaving the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO), created after the break-up of the Soviet Union and created from former U.S.S.R. provinces that are now separate nations.

Armenia’s ties with Russia, its long-time sponsor and ally, have grown increasingly strained after Azerbaijan waged a lightning military campaign in September to take the Karabakh region, ending three decades of ethnic Armenian separatist rule there.

Armenian authorities accused Russian peacekeepers who were deployed to Nagorno-Karabakh after a previous round of hostilities in 2020 of failing to stop Azerbaijan’s onslaught. Moscow, which has a military base in Armenia, rejected the accusations, arguing that its troops didn’t have a mandate to intervene.

It could also be that Armenian sees Russia as a hostile power, considering its invasion of the Ukraine. Russia’s failure to win quickly in the Ukraine and the bogged down nature of the war also make this a very good moment to break free from Russia. Putin doesn’t have the resources to invade another neighbor.

The Artemis Accords now includes these nations: Angola, Argentina, Armenia, Australia, Bahrain, Belgium, Brazil, Bulgaria, Canada, Colombia, Czech Republic, Ecuador, France, Germany, Greece, Iceland, India, Israel, Italy, Japan, Lithuania, Luxembourg, Mexico, the Netherlands, New Zealand, Nigeria, Peru, Poland, Romania, Rwanda, Saudi Arabia, Singapore, Slovakia, Slovenia, South Korea, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, the United Kingdom, the United Arab Emirates, the Ukraine, the United States and Uruguay.

Whether it will do much depends wholly on what the U.S. does. Right now, the American government’s space effort is confused and incoherent. There is a lot of money being spread around, but not much getting accomplished.

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French startup captures Russian satellite maneuvering close to another geosynchronous satellite

9:09 am

The French startup Aldoria has released a short movie taken by its ground telescopes showing a Russian “inspector” satellite maneuvering close to another geosynchronous satellite.

In a recent operation, Aldoria detected a sudden close approach by the Russian Luch Olymp K-2 (Luch-2) to a satellite positioned in geostationary orbit (GEO). This manoeuvre occurred on April 12, around 35,780 km in altitude, highlighting the increasing complexity of space activities. Luch Olymp 2, known for its unusual manoeuvres was predicted, by Aldoria, to closely approach the satellite prior to the observed manoeuvre. The original Luch-1, launched in 2014, was known for similar abnormal behaviour, creating a heightened sense of vigilance within the space community. Luch-2, like its predecessor, has a history of unusual manoeuvring near other satellites in geostationary orbit, which has also generated suspicions regarding its mission.

You can see the video here.

In the past year it appears the entire aerospace industry in Europe has come alive, no longer captured by the European Space Agency’s government-owned commercial arm, Arianespace. Instead, there are companies popping up everywhere, doing the kinds of entrepreneurial work American companies have been known to do since the founding of the country.

The competition for business and the amount of innovation in space should get very brisk in the next few years.

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Launches by China and Russia

9:16 am

Earlier today both China and Russia successfully completed launches.

First, China launched a Chinese-built Pakistani communications satellite into orbit, its Long March 3B rocket lifting off from its Xichang spaceport from the southwest of China.

No real information was released about the satellite, or the fate of the rocket’s lower stages and four strap-on boosters, all of which use toxic hypergolic fuels and certainly crashed somewhere in China.

Next, Russia successfully launched a new Progress cargo ship to ISS, its Soyuz-2 rocket lifting off from Baikonur in Kazakhstan. The freighter will dock with ISS tomorrow. I have embedded video of the launch below, cued to T-30 seconds.

The rocket’s flight path took it over Kazakstan, Russia, and China, with drop zones for the lower stages in the first two. No word on whether the lower stages and four strap-on boosters crashed near habitable areas.

The leaders in the 2024 launch race:

57 SpaceX
25 China
8 Russia
6 Rocket Lab

American private enterprise still leads the world combined in successful launches, 65 to 39, while SpaceX by itself leads the entire world, including other American companies, 57 to 47.

» Read more

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Russia’s Soyuz-2 rocket launches classified payloads

9:21 am

Russia yesterday placed an unnamed number of classified satellites into orbit, its Soyuz-2 rocket lifting off from its Plesetsk spaceport in the northern part of Russia.

The flight path went north, so the rocket’s four strap-on boosters and lower stages all fell in remote regions or in the Arctic Ocean.

The leaders in the 2024 launch race:

51 SpaceX
21 China
7 Russia
5 Rocket Lab

American private enterprise still leads the world combined in successful launches, 58 to 34. SpaceX by itself still leads the rest of the world, including other American companies, 51 to 41.

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Pentagon: SpaceX effectively blocking Russian illegal use of Starlink

9:26 am

According to one Pentagon official, SpaceX has effectively blocked Russia’s illegal use of captured or illegally purchased Starlink terminals.

Plumb declined to elaborate on what tactics, techniques or procedures are being used to stem Russia’s use of the highly portable communications terminals that connect to SpaceX’s fleet of low-orbiting satellites. Ukrainian government officials had no immediate comment.

Starlink terminals continue to be advertised for sale in Russia on platforms such as e-commerce site Ozon. Their sellers say they function through subscriptions taken out in the name of residents of European countries where the technology is licensed, and they say that connections work — not within Russia’s heartlands but near border regions such as Ukraine’s occupied territories.

This week, however, users complained of unprecedented connectivity issues. On the messaging app Telegram one of the sellers recommended transferring onto a more expensive global service plan. Bloomberg hasn’t been able to independently verify whether those workarounds restore connectivity for illicit Starlink use in Russia.

The official tried to make it sound as if the Pentagon was an equal partner with SpaceX in accomplishing this work, but that’s absurd. The military is without doubt helping SpaceX anyway it can, but the bulk of the technical work is almost certainly being done by SpaceX.

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Russia to NASA: We’ll wait a bit before putting our astronauts on Starliner

8:54 am

Even though Russia and NASA have a barter deal whereby one astronaut from each country flies free on each flight of its spacecraft, Russia it appears will forego flying any Russians on Boeing’s Starliner capsule for the immediate future.

At the May 3 briefing, though, NASA officials said it was unlikely that a Russian cosmonaut would be assigned to Starliner-1 [the first operational flight after the first manned demo flight launching today]. “We expect, on the Roscosmos side, they’re more likely to want to see a long-duration flight also, so we think they’ll want to start to fly with us on Starliner-2,” said Dana Weigel, NASA ISS program manager.

That would appear to disrupt the ongoing series of seat exchanges between NASA and Roscosmos. “We’re still working through that with our Roscosmos counterparts. It’s our desire to continue to do integrated crew,” she said, adding that NASA and Roscosmos don’t have an agreement yet in place for exchanging crews in the timeframe that will include Starliner-1.

This isn’t a surprise. Russia made the same decision with SpaceX’s Dragon manned capsule, waiting until it had flown a few times before agreeing to allow its astronauts on it. With Boeing Russia might be more hesitant, consider the problems Starliner has had in development plus the overall quality control issues known to exist at Boeing.

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