Tag: Russia

NASA delays Axiom manned mission again

9:11 am

Without providing any specific details, NASA today announced that it has once again scrubbed the June 22, 2025 launch of Axiom’s Ax-4 manned mission to ISS as it assesses the Russian repairs to the air leaks in the Russian Zvezda module.

The space agency needs additional time to continue evaluating International Space Station operations after recent repair work in the aft (back) most segment of the orbital laboratory’s Zvezda service module. Because of the space station’s interconnected and interdependent systems, NASA wants to ensure the station is ready for additional crew members, and the agency is taking the time necessary to review data.

No new launch date has been set. Because the agency provides so little specific information, we don’t know if the air leak repairs are working, are failing, or have indicated even more serious problems that make any station docking a greater risk. Almost certainly, this latter fear is unfounded and the repairs have succeeded in stopping or slowing the loss of air, but the paucity of information from NASA allows for wild speculations. It would be better if the agency told us what it has so far learned, and exactly why that knowledge requires it to extend the data-gathering time period.

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Russia launches classified military satellite using its Angara-5 rocket

9:50 am

Russia today successfully launched a classified military satellite, its Angara-5 rocket rocket lifting off from its Plesetsk spaceport in northeastern Russia.

This was the fifth flight of the Angara-5 rocket, the most powerful version in the Angara family of rockets that Russia first proposed three decades ago to replace its older rockets and has had an extremely slow development history. Its core stage and four strap-on boosters crashed in drop-zones across Russia,

On June 9, 2025, the administration of the Kolpashevo District in the Tomsk Region of Russia declared several communities at risk of debris impact during an Angara-5 launch scheduled around 06:00 Moscow Time on June 19, 2025. The danger area covered the Verkneketsky, Kolpashevsky, Kargasoksky and Parabelsky Districts and was located around 65 kilometers north-west of Lake Tresh. This particular area, located around 2,320 kilometers downrange from Plesetsk, would normally be used as a drop zone for the second stage of an Angara rocket heading to an orbit with an inclination 63.4 degrees toward the Equator.

The rocket’s first stage boosters were expected to fall in the Komi Republic around 850 kilometers downrange, while the third stage would splash down in the Pacific Ocean, east of the Philippines, where the Russian authorities also declared a danger zone.

The leaders in the 2025 launch race:

76 SpaceX
34 China
8 Rocket Lab
7 Russia

SpaceX still leads the rest of the world in successful launches, 76 to 56.

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Axiom manned flight to ISS rescheduled; NASA attempts to clarify ISS leak situation

9:26 am

In a NASA update today, it announced a new launch date of June 19, 2025 for Axiom’s fourth manned flight to ISS while also attempting to clarify ISS leak situation that caused this last and more extended delay.

On June 12, NASA and Axiom Space delayed the mission as the agency continued to work with Roscosmos to understand the most recent repair efforts to seal small leaks. The leaks, located in the aft (back) most segment of the International Space Station’s Zvezda service module, have been monitored by flight controllers for the past few years.

Following the most-recent repair, pressure in the transfer tunnel has been stable. Previously, pressure in this area would have dropped. This could indicate the small leaks have been sealed. Teams are also considering the stable pressure could be the result of a small amount of air flowing into the transfer tunnel across the hatch seal from the main part of space station. By changing pressure in the transfer tunnel and monitoring over time, teams are evaluating the condition of the transfer tunnel and the hatch seal between the space station and the back of Zvezda.

It appears, though NASA doesn’t say so directly, that the Russians did not wish to change the situation at ISS with another docking — even if it was a docking on the American half of the station — while it was evaluating these leak repairs. It now appears they have gotten enough data to allow NASA to set a new launch date later this week.

If the repairs have managed to stop the leaks this is excellent news. At the same time, it doesn’t reduce the risks of a catastrophic failure of Zvezda, since the existence of these numerous stress fractures in its hull suggest a chronic long term failure that can only worsen with time.

The sudden delay of Axiom’s AX-4 last week also indicates poor coordination between NASA and Roscosmos. It was as if NASA had no idea the repair work was occurring, either because it wasn’t paying attention to what the Russians were doing or because the Russians had kept this work secret until it was completed. In either case, this is not how such a partnership should operate.

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Kazakhstan moves west

9:01 am

Two stories today suggest that Kazakhstan is shifting its politics away from Russia and towards the west, albeit carefully and with an eye to avoid poking the bear that lives so close by.

First, the government’s tourism agency announced plans to develop tourism at its Baikonur spaceport.

Participants discussed infrastructure upgrades, the creation of new travel routes, brand strengthening, investment attraction and partnerships to support long-term development.

According to Kazakh Tourism Сhairman Kairat Sadvakasov, the concept focuses on building a sustainable tourism ecosystem during the periods between rocket launches. The goal is to integrate Baikonur into Kazakhstan’s cultural, educational and scientific agenda.

Both the Soviet and Russian governments have always treated Baikonur as a classified military installation, and forbid such visitation, including vetoing public viewing areas areas. Kazakhstan has likely seen the cash earned by India and U.S. by allowing such spaceport tourism, and wants some for itself. Evidently it now thinks the Russians no longer have the clout to stop it from doing so.

Next, Kazakhstan’s government announced it has signed a deal with SpaceX to introduce Starlink into the country.

The agreement ensures that Starlink will comply with Kazakhstan’s legal and regulatory requirements, including those related to information security and communications. Until now, Starlink operated in the country only on a pilot basis, providing internet access exclusively to schools.

The upcoming launch will allow citizens to legally purchase, register, and use Starlink terminals. The service aims to improve high-speed internet access in remote and hard-to-reach regions, supporting rural schools, healthcare centers, mobile units, and infrastructure sites – particularly in areas where laying fiber-optic networks is not feasible.

This deal also suggests a change in Kazakhstan’s relationship with Russia. Starlink is blocked from Russia due to its invasion on the Ukraine. Yet the service is now available to both Kazakhstan and the Ukraine, formerly part of the Soviet Union and directly adjacent to Russia. That Kazakhstan is publicly permitting Starlink in is a clear statement that it wants the same technology as the Ukraine to better protect it from a Russian invasion.

It also suggests a decline in Russia’s influence inside Kazakhstan. Previously if the Russians said jump, the Kazakhstan government would ask, “How high?” Now it appears it is willing to act more independently, and in ways that are not necessarily in Russia’s interests.

One wonders if this shift could go as far as Kazakhstan trying to sell Baikonur as a launch site for other commercial entities, such as from India, China, and Europe. I doubt many would buy the service (Baikonur is not well located compared to other spaceports), but the very offer would signal a major political shift in this part of the world.

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Axiom manned mission delayed further because of new Zvezda leaks on ISS

8:58 am

Figure 3 from September Inspector General report
Figure 3 from September Inspector General report, showing Zvezda’s location on ISS.

According to a press update today by NASA, the launch of the commercial Ax-4 manned mission to ISS has been further delayed due to work by the Russians attempting to seal new leaks in the station’s Zvezda module.

NASA and Axiom Space are postponing the launch of Axiom Mission 4 to the International Space Station. As part of an ongoing investigation, NASA is working with Roscosmos to understand a new pressure signature, after the recent post-repair effort in the aft most segment of the International Space Station’s Zvezda service module.

Cosmonauts aboard the space station recently performed inspections of the pressurized module’s interior surfaces, sealed some additional areas of interest, and measured the current leak rate. Following this effort, the segment now is holding pressure.

In other words, the Russians had recently detected an increase in leakage in the module, identified several more cracks inside Zvezda, and have been working to seal them.

The graphic above comes from a 2024 NASA inspector general report, which at that time noted a significant increase in the leak rate in 2024 (see the data in the lower right). Since then it has been NASA policy to close the hatch that connects the American and Russian sections of the station whenever anything docks with Zvezda, due to risk that the docking could cause the module to fail entirely.

Zvezda is one of the oldest modules on ISS, built in the late 1980s and launched in 2000. It is believed the leaks are due to stress fractures in its hull due to the many dockings and undockings that have occurred at its aft docking port.

If the NASA press release can be believed, the situation is under control and the repairs have been successful. If so, expect the Axiom mission to be rescheduled shortly.

If not, we could be witnessing the beginning of the end of ISS, five years earlier than planned by bureaucrats in Washington and Moscow.

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Russia launches classified satellite

9:42 am

Russia today successfully placed a classified military satellite into orbit, its Soyuz-2 rocket lifting off from its Plesetsk spaceport in northeast Russia.

The Russians provided extensive information about the places where the rocket’s lower stages and strap-on boosters would crash, issuing “warnings for the planned rocket boosters impacts between Yar Sale and Ports Yakha settlements, as well as in Panaevsk and Khadyta-Yakha sites.” These crash zones have been used previously. Though unlike China Russia routinely warns its people about such things, like China it has never had a problem dumping these stages on their head.

The leaders in the 2025 launch race:

60 SpaceX
30 China
6 Rocket Lab
6 Russia

SpaceX still leads the rest of the world in successful launches, 60 to 49.

It is entertaining to see that the private American rocket company Rocket Lab is matching Russia launch for launch this year. Once Russia launched dozens of times per year. Now it will do well to achieve one launch per month. Rocket Lab meanwhile is trying to top twenty launches in 2025. It might not meet that number, but it is quite likely to top Russia when the year ends.

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Kazakhstan denies rumors that Russia plans to abandon Baikonur

10:01 am

In response to reports in its local press that Russia was going to pull out of the Baikonur spaceport in the next three years, two decades before its lease expires in 2050, the Kazakhstan government yesterday issued a denial.

Local media in Kazakhstan have reported that Russia could exit the lease between 2026 and 2028 as it pulls back from international space cooperation, including a planned withdrawal from the International Space Station (ISS) as early as 2028.

“The question of early termination of the lease, or transfer of the city of Baikonur to the full control of the Kazakh side, is not being considered at this time,” Kazakhstan’s Aerospace Committee told AFP.

There rumors however could have real merit. Once ISS is retired, the Russians will have little reason to use Baikonur. It is almost certain it will not have launched its own replacement station by then, and Baikonur’s high latitude location will make its use with any other station difficult if not impossible. Moreover, the effort to switch to its Angara rocket favors launches from the Vostochny and Plesetsk spaceports, both of which have launchpads built for that rocket.

Finally, Russia has not had the cash to upgrade the launchpads at Baikonur, so much so that it has often been late paying Kazakhstan its annual $115 million rental fee, delays which at one point caused Kazakhstan to seize the launchpad Russia was upgrading for its proposed new Soyuz-5 rocket.

In fact, Russia might not be able to afford Baikonur at all, based on its present finances and the cost of its stupid war in the Ukraine.

We shall not get clarity on this story for at least a year or so, but stay tuned. Nothing is certain.

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Crash prediction for Venera failed lander now reduced to four hours

8:24 am

Venera reentry prediction
Click for original image.

UPDATE: According to several reports today such as this one, the spacecraft ended up burning up over the Indian Ocean west of Indonesia at 2:24 am (Eastern) on May 10, 2025. It remains unclear whether it can be salvaged in any way.
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The Aerospace Corporation’s prediction for the final uncontrolled re-entry of the Soviet Union’s 1972 failed Venus lander Venera has now been reduced to four hours, centered above the Indian Ocean near Indonesia, as shown on the map to the right, at around 1:29 pm Eastern.

This prediction however has great uncertainty, and will change in the next few hours. However, based on the orbits depicted, there is a good chance the lander will come down over either Europe or Asia.

As it was designed to survive the very thick and very hot atmosphere of Venus, there is also a good chance it will survive its uncontrolled re-entry through Earth’s atmosphere. Since Russia inherited all the assets of the Soviet Union, it will be responsible for any damage the lander does, as per the Outer Space Treaty.

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Russia signs space agreement with Venezuela

9:23 am

The losers unite! Russia’s state-run press today announced that its government have signed a bi-lateral agreement with Venezuela to work together in space.

Moscow and Caracas have agreed to enhance cooperation in the peaceful use of outer space, including by building a Glonass ground station in Venezuela, according to a bilateral cooperation treaty.

Because of the bankruptcy at both nations, this agreement really doesn’t involve much real space development. All it really does is allow Russia to build a ground station in Venezuela for operating its orbiting Glonass GPS-type constellation, which Russia in turn has been struggling for decades to bring back into full operation after the fall of the Soviet Union.

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Soyuz safely returns three astronauts from ISS

9:42 am

A Russian Soyuz capsule successfully landed in Kazakhstan this morning, bring two Russians and one American back to Earth after a seven month mission to ISS.

The American on board, Don Petit, also celebrated his 70th birthday today, completing his fourth mission in space. According to the article at the link, he did not do well upon landing, requiring significant aid to exit the capsule. The picture released by NASA of him being carried to the medical tent shows him smiling with a thumbs up, but he is clearly unable to walk at this point on his own. That fact by itself is not significant, because many astronauts after missions lasting longer than six months need aid upon return. It does indicate however that this flight is almost certainly Petit’s last one. As that NASA release it notes he “is doing well and in the range of what is expected for him following return to Earth.”

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NASA-Roscosmos barter deal to fly each other astronauts to ISS extended

8:55 am

In announcing its future crew assignments in early April NASA also confirmed that its barter deal with Russia to fly each other astronauts to ISS has been extended to 2027.

NASA announced April 3 that astronaut Chris Williams had been assigned to the Soyuz MS-28 spacecraft scheduled to launch to the ISS in November, joining Roscosmos cosmonauts Sergey Kud-Sverchkov and Sergei Mikaev. The announcement came ahead of the April 8 launch of fellow astronaut Jonny Kim to the ISS on Soyuz MS-27.

The announcement of the Williams flight assignment was the first public indication by NASA that it has extended an agreement with Roscosmos for “integrated crews” on Soyuz and commercial crew flights to the ISS. Under the no-exchange-of-funds barter agreement, NASA astronauts fly on Soyuz spacecraft and Roscosmos cosmonauts fly on commercial crew vehicles to ensure that there is at least one American and one Russian on the station should either Soyuz or commercial crew vehicles be grounded for an extended period.

Russian sources in January 2025 had indicated the agreement had been extended, but this most recent non-announcement is the first confirmation by NASA.

One interesting change in the schedule revealed by this crew announcement is that Russia will be launching less frequently while extending its Soyuz missions. Previously Russia’s missions were six months long, the same length as NASA’s standard ISS mission. Now Russia will only launch every eight months. No explanation was given for this change, which will likely complicate the station’s already complex docking schedule. I suspect two reasons: First the Russian government probably needs to reduce costs, and flying less often serves that purpose. Second, Roscosmos officials probably want to also fly longer missions for research.

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Russia launches three astronauts to ISS

10:57 pm

Russia early on April 8, 2025 successfully launched two Russians and one American to ISS on a six month mission, its Soyuz-2 rocket lifting off from its Baikonur spaceport in Kazakhstan.

They will dock with ISS after only two orbits, three hours after launch.

The leaders in the 2025 launch race:

40 SpaceX
18 China
5 Rocket Lab
5 Russia

SpaceX still leads the rest of the world in successful launches, 40 to 32.

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April 7, 2025 Quick space links

3:28 pm

Courtesy of BtB’s stringer Jay. This post is also an open thread. I welcome my readers to post any comments or additional links relating to any space issues, even if unrelated to the links below.

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The real underlying battle between Trump and Zelinsky

2:01 pm

The kerfuffle last week between the United States and the Ukraine, instigated by the unprecedented ugly end to the press conference that concluded the visit of Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelensky to the White House, is actually quite understandable if one is willing to consider the perspective of both sides. Unfortunately, I have seen little such analysis anywhere. Instead we get emotional attacks. On the left Trump is a vicious politician who wants to carve the Ukraine up for the benefit of Russia. On the right Zelensky is a corrupt barbarian who simply wants the war to continue forever so that he can steal as much U.S. foreign aid as possible for his own private benefit.

Neither of these conclusions are very helpful. Nor do they provide any insight to what is really going on.

So, what are the different perspectives that caused this confrontation?
» Read more

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Russia and SpaceX complete launches

9:34 pm

Two more launches today. First, Russia launched a Glonass GPS-type satellite, its Soyuz-2 rocket lifting off from its Plesetsk spaceport in northern Russia. The rocket’s core stage, four strap-on boosters and upper stage all landed in planned zones within Russia. Whether they crashed near homes is unknown.

Next SpaceX launched another 23 Starlink satellites, its Falcon 9 rocket lifting off from Cape Canaveral in Florida. The first stage completed its fifth flight, landing on a drone ship in the Atlantic.

Note that though some launch sites indicate China also did a launch this weekend of the solid-fueled Kuaizhou-1A rocket built by the pseudo-company Expace, a translation of this French site indicates the launch was a failure.

The leaders in the 2025 launch race:

26 SpaceX
9 China
3 Russia
2 Rocket Lab

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Russia successfully launches new Progress freighter to ISS

3:07 pm

Russia today successfully placed a new Progress freighter into orbit, its Soyuz-2 rocket lifting off from Kazakhstan.

The freighter will dock with ISS on March 2, 2025, docking with the aft port of the Zvezda module, the core module of the Russian half of the station. I guarantee that during that docking the hatch will be closed between the American and Russian segments, as that is now NASA’s policy because of its concern about the stress fractures in Zvezda.

The leaders in the 2025 launch race:

25 SpaceX
9 China
2 Rocket Lab
2 Russia

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Putin fires head of Roscosmos

8:28 am

Vladimir Putin today fired Yury Borosov, who has run Russia’s space industry as head of Roscosmos for only two and a half years after he replaced Dmitry Rogozin, whom Putin had fired in 2022.

According to this British news report, Borosov was fired due to a “catastrophic reduction in the number of launches, as well as incidents and accidents with serious consequences”. Since 2022, the number of successful Russian launches has dropped from 21 to 19 to 17 (in 2024), and so far in 2025 it has only launched once, a classified military launch yesterday. Though there is no indication that launch was a failure, the timing of Borosov’s firing today suggests something might have gone askew once the payloads reached orbit.

The new Roscosmos head is 39-year-old Dmitry Bakanov, who was previously deputy minister of transport.

It is not likely Bakanov will have any better luck revitalizing Russia’s space industry than Borosov. First, Putin consolidated that industry in 2015 into this single Roscosmos corporation, so there is no competition allowed. Russia under Putin’s rule has increasingly returned to the top-down communist model, and as a result it is increasingly less capable of accomplishing much.

Second, Putin’s idiotic invasion of the Ukraine has done nothing but harm to the nation. And as that war continues to drag on, the harm has only been metastasizing.

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Italian government awards former Ukrainian startup a $1.14 million development loan

10:07 am

A former Ukrainian startup, Kurs Orbital, has won a $1.14 million loan from Italy’s National Agency for Investment Attraction and Business Development (Invitalia) in order to build and sell its module providing rendezvous and docking capabilities for satellites.

Kurs Orbital was founded in 2021 by the former director of Ukraine’s space agency, Volodymyr Usov. After Russia invaded Ukraine in 2022, the company relocated to Turin, Italy. The company is currently developing its ARCap system, a rendezvous and proximity operations module that can be integrated with a wide range of vehicles, including satellites, orbital transfer vehicles, and even cargo or crew spacecraft. Possible applications for the technology include satellite life extension missions, in-orbit servicing, and space debris removal.

On 30 December, the company announced that it had secured a €1.1 million soft loan from Italy’s National Agency for Investment Attraction and Business Development (Invitalia). A soft loan provides the borrower with more favourable terms than traditional lenders typically offer. The loan was awarded through the agency’s Smart&Start programme, which focuses on supporting the growth of innovative startups by providing financing of between €100,000 and €1.5 million.

The Kurs rendezvous and docking system was first developed in the Ukraine for the Soviet-era space stations. When the Soviet Union broke up it continued to sell them to Roscosmos, but over time the Putin government increasingly worked to block these deals as it tried (and generally failed) to develop the capabilities within Russia. The Ukrainian companies then began marketing their products, with some success, in the west. Following Russia’s 2022 invasion of the Ukraine those companies have either died, or done what Kurs Orbital did, move to the west.

While this story might resemble the actions of the Chinese government as described in my previous post, there is one very fundamental difference. In Italy the law protects the property rights of this company. The Italian government might provide it loans and assistance, like the Chinese, but it does not have the power or right to take it over, at its whim, as the Chinese communists can.

The story also illustrates the foolishness of Russia’s power-hungry policies. It not only has wasted its youth and industry on a useless war, it has driven away companies and technology that formerly gave it capabilities it now lacks.

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Roscosmos buys Earth observation data from private Russian satellite company

11:05 am

According to a report today by Russia’s state-run news agency TASS, Roscosmos has awarded a commercial contract to a private Russian satellite company, dubbed Sputnix, to purchase earth observation data its satellites have already collected.

“In 2024, up to 1.4 billion rubles [around $14.285 million] were allocated in budget funds to conclude forward contracts with private companies on buying out Earth’s remote sensing data obtained from their satellites and created under the federal project ‘Developing the Advanced Space Systems and Services High-Tech Sector.’ The first contract on buying out data has been concluded with the Sputnix Group of Companies,” Roscosmos said in a statement.

The Sputnix Group confirmed to TASS that the contract had been signed.

“Under the contract, the data already loaded into the database were bought out. We hope that next year we will be able to sign a forward contract as part of implementing the roadmap for the ‘Advanced Space Systems and Services’ project,” the company said, emphasizing that cooperation with Roscosmos remained a priority for Sputnix.

Sputnix was founded in 2011, and has so far launched 20 satellites into orbit, though many were short-lived cubesats. While on the surface this company appears real, it is not unlike the pseudo-companies in China. Its contracts appear to be almost all with the Russian government, all its work appears supervised by that government, and at any moment the Russian government can take it over, as it essentially did with the effort of the so-called private rocket startup S7 to launch from the Sea Launch ocean platform.

In other words, this news piece is simply the Russian government’s attempt to convince the world and its own people that there is a competitive and independent private sector in Russia, when in reality it doesn’t exist.

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