Tag: science
How to see Comet Pan-STARRS.
Seven sound recordings made before Thomas Edison.
Seven sound recordings made before Thomas Edison.
Seven sound recordings made before Thomas Edison.
New computer models find that the tropical rain forests will not be harmed by increased carbon dioxide in the atmosphere.
The uncertainty of science: New computer models find that the tropical rain forests will not be harmed by increased carbon dioxide in the atmosphere.
Tropical forests are unlikely to die off as a result of the predicted rise in atmospheric greenhouse gases this century, a new study finds. The analysis refutes previous work that predicted the catastrophic loss of the Amazon rainforest as one of the more startling potential outcomes of climate change.
In the most extensive study of its kind, an international team of scientists simulated the effect of business-as-usual emissions on the amounts of carbon locked up in tropical forests across Amazonia, Central America, Asia and Africa through to 2100. They compared the results from 22 different global climate models teamed with various models of land-surface processes. In all but one simulation, rainforests across the three regions retained their carbon stocks even as atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration increased throughout the century.
The study provides “robust evidence for the resilience of tropical rainforests”, says lead author Chris Huntingford, a climate modeller at the UK’s Centre for Ecology and Hydrology in Wallingford. But uncertainties remain, he adds.
First, this prediction is based on a computer model, which is as likely to be as right as the previous pessimistic predictions. With that in mind, no one should start dancing for joy. The long term consequences of increased carbon dioxide in the atmosphere remain unknown.
Second, I am baffled by the previous predictions that favored catastrophe for the tropical jungles because of increased levels of carbon dioxide. Plants breath CO2. They prosper from it. If you put more in the atmosphere they will thrive. Moreover, the tropical jungles are already hot, and the plant life there is adapted to that heat. Raising the global temperature should not hurt them significantly.
Finally, faced with a result that defuses all the crisis-mongering of the global warming crowd, the author of the article feels obliged at the end to emphasis their new bugaboo: extreme weather! It’s coming! Duck your heads!
But don’t worry. When weather extremes also fail to appear, they will find something else to scream about.
The uncertainty of science: New computer models find that the tropical rain forests will not be harmed by increased carbon dioxide in the atmosphere.
Tropical forests are unlikely to die off as a result of the predicted rise in atmospheric greenhouse gases this century, a new study finds. The analysis refutes previous work that predicted the catastrophic loss of the Amazon rainforest as one of the more startling potential outcomes of climate change.
In the most extensive study of its kind, an international team of scientists simulated the effect of business-as-usual emissions on the amounts of carbon locked up in tropical forests across Amazonia, Central America, Asia and Africa through to 2100. They compared the results from 22 different global climate models teamed with various models of land-surface processes. In all but one simulation, rainforests across the three regions retained their carbon stocks even as atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration increased throughout the century.
The study provides “robust evidence for the resilience of tropical rainforests”, says lead author Chris Huntingford, a climate modeller at the UK’s Centre for Ecology and Hydrology in Wallingford. But uncertainties remain, he adds.
First, this prediction is based on a computer model, which is as likely to be as right as the previous pessimistic predictions. With that in mind, no one should start dancing for joy. The long term consequences of increased carbon dioxide in the atmosphere remain unknown.
Second, I am baffled by the previous predictions that favored catastrophe for the tropical jungles because of increased levels of carbon dioxide. Plants breath CO2. They prosper from it. If you put more in the atmosphere they will thrive. Moreover, the tropical jungles are already hot, and the plant life there is adapted to that heat. Raising the global temperature should not hurt them significantly.
Finally, faced with a result that defuses all the crisis-mongering of the global warming crowd, the author of the article feels obliged at the end to emphasis their new bugaboo: extreme weather! It’s coming! Duck your heads!
But don’t worry. When weather extremes also fail to appear, they will find something else to scream about.
The Russians now say that they have not found any previously unknown life forms in the sample from Lake Vostok.
The uncertainty of science: The Russians now say that they have not found any previously unknown life forms in the sample from Lake Vostok.
Sergei Bulat of the genetics laboratory at the Saint Petersburg Institute of Nuclear Physics had said Thursday that samples obtained from the underground Lake Vostok in May 2012 contained a bacteria bearing no resemblance to existing types. But the head of the genetics laboratory at the same institute said on Saturday that the strange life forms were in fact nothing but contaminants.
It appears that the earlier announcement was either premature, or inappropriate.
The uncertainty of science: The Russians now say that they have not found any previously unknown life forms in the sample from Lake Vostok.
Sergei Bulat of the genetics laboratory at the Saint Petersburg Institute of Nuclear Physics had said Thursday that samples obtained from the underground Lake Vostok in May 2012 contained a bacteria bearing no resemblance to existing types. But the head of the genetics laboratory at the same institute said on Saturday that the strange life forms were in fact nothing but contaminants.
It appears that the earlier announcement was either premature, or inappropriate.
Comet Pan-STARRS will likely be its brightest for northern hemisphere viewers this weekend.
Comet Pan-STARRS will likely be at its brightest for northern hemisphere viewers this weekend.
Look to the west low on the horizon at sunset to see it.
Comet Pan-STARRS will likely be at its brightest for northern hemisphere viewers this weekend.
Look to the west low on the horizon at sunset to see it.
Sand that is always dry
An evening pause: As Arthur Clarke said, “Any sufficiently advanced technology is indistinguishable from magic.”
Eight of the world’s most incredible swimming pools.
The Crab Nebula has flared again.
The Crab Nebula has flared again.
The Crab Nebula has flared again.
The Russians have announced that their samples from Lake Vostok, buried deep under the Antarctic icecap contains life, one of which is new.
The Russians have announced that their samples from Lake Vostok, buried deep under the Antarctic icecap, contains life, one of which is never before seen.
The Russians have announced that their samples from Lake Vostok, buried deep under the Antarctic icecap, contains life, one of which is never before seen.
A sunstone, used by mariners to judge the position of the Sun when it is cloudy, has been found at a 16th century shipwreck.
A sunstone, used by mariners to judge the position of the Sun when it is cloudy, has been found at a 16th century shipwreck.
A previous study showed that calcite crystals reveal the patterns of polarized light around the sun and, therefore, could have been used to determine its position in the sky even on cloudy days. That led researchers to believe these crystals, which are commonly found in Iceland and other parts of Scandinavia, might have been the powerful “sunstones” referred to in Norse legends, but they had no archaeological evidence to support their hypothesis—until now.
A sunstone, used by mariners to judge the position of the Sun when it is cloudy, has been found at a 16th century shipwreck.
A previous study showed that calcite crystals reveal the patterns of polarized light around the sun and, therefore, could have been used to determine its position in the sky even on cloudy days. That led researchers to believe these crystals, which are commonly found in Iceland and other parts of Scandinavia, might have been the powerful “sunstones” referred to in Norse legends, but they had no archaeological evidence to support their hypothesis—until now.
Touching the underground ocean of Europa, from Earth.
Touching the underground ocean of Europa, from Earth.
Touching the underground ocean of Europa, from Earth.
The search to find and understand the Chelyabinsk meteorite.
The search to find and understand the Chelyabinsk meteorite.
The search to find and understand the Chelyabinsk meteorite.
Curiosity is easing out of safe mode as engineers switch computers.
Curiosity is easing out of safe mode as engineers switch computers.
Curiosity is easing out of safe mode as engineers switch computers.
We don’t need no solar maximum
It is that time again! Today, March 4, NOAA released its monthly update of the Sun’s sunspot cycle, covering the period of February 2013. As I do every month, I am posting this latest graph, with annotations to give it context, below the fold.
Once again, the Sun has shown a complete inability to produce sunspots, at the very moment it had been predicted to be rising towards its maximum in the sunspot cycle. The numbers in February plunged from the tepid rise we saw in January to below the crash we saw in December. Right now, when the Sun is supposed to peaking, it is instead producing sunspots in numbers as low as seen in 2011, at the very end of the last solar minimum.
» Read more
The true national debt.
The day of reckoning looms: The true national debt.
Depending on what you include, the number could be as high as $31 trillion, twice what is normally mentioned. Worse, I’ve read other reports that suggest that even this number is low.
But don’t worry! Homeland Security has got us covered with its new fleet of armored vehicles!
The day of reckoning looms: The true national debt.
Depending on what you include, the number could be as high as $31 trillion, twice what is normally mentioned. Worse, I’ve read other reports that suggest that even this number is low.
But don’t worry! Homeland Security has got us covered with its new fleet of armored vehicles!
New research concludes that it was a static electric spark that set fire to the Hindenberg in 1937.
New research concludes that it was a static electric spark that set fire to the Hindenberg in 1937.
New research concludes that it was a static electric spark that set fire to the Hindenberg in 1937.
A newly discovered asteroid will pass within the Moon’s orbit on Wednesday.
A newly discovered asteroid will pass within the Moon’s orbit on Wednesday.
2013EC, as the asteroid has been named, is estimated to be between 30 to 60 feet in diameter.
A newly discovered asteroid will pass within the Moon’s orbit on Wednesday.
2013EC, as the asteroid has been named, is estimated to be between 30 to 60 feet in diameter.
“This is the biggest meteorite found in East Antarctica for 25 years.”
Two probes named after James Van Allen and designed to study the two Van Allen radiation belts have discovered there is a third intermittent belt.
Two probes named after James Van Allen and designed to study the two Van Allen radiation belts have discovered there is a third intermittent belt.
Two probes named after James Van Allen and designed to study the two Van Allen radiation belts have discovered there is a third intermittent belt.
The meteorite that landed in Russia on February 15 has now been traced to the Apollo family of near Earth asteroids.
The meteorite that landed in Russia on February 15 has now been traced to the Apollo family of near Earth asteroids.
The meteorite that landed in Russia on February 15 has now been traced to the Apollo family of near Earth asteroids.
Richard Feynman explains the scientific method.
An evening pause: “It doesn’t make a difference how beautiful your guess is, it doesn’t make a difference how smart you are, who made the guess, or what his name is. If it disagrees with experiment, it’s wrong.”
Scientists are considering revising the guidelines for heart risk as determined by your cholesterol levels.
The uncertainty of science: Scientists are considering revising the guidelines for heart risk as determined by your cholesterol levels.
The ATP IV committee has pledged to hew strictly to the science and to focus on data from randomized clinical trials, says committee chairman Neil Stone, a cardiologist at Northwestern University School of Medicine in Chicago. If so, Krumholz argues, LDL [cholesterol] targets will be cast aside because they have never been explicitly tested. Clinical trials have shown repeatedly that statins reduce the risk of heart attack and stroke, but lowering LDL with other medications does not work as well. The benefits of statins may reflect their other effects on the body, including fighting inflammation, another risk factor for heart disease. [emphasis mine]
In other words, the assumption that’s been pushed for more than a decade that lowering your cholesterol will lower your risk of heart attack has never been tested or proven. If this isn’t science by myth I don’t know what is.
The uncertainty of science: Scientists are considering revising the guidelines for heart risk as determined by your cholesterol levels.
The ATP IV committee has pledged to hew strictly to the science and to focus on data from randomized clinical trials, says committee chairman Neil Stone, a cardiologist at Northwestern University School of Medicine in Chicago. If so, Krumholz argues, LDL [cholesterol] targets will be cast aside because they have never been explicitly tested. Clinical trials have shown repeatedly that statins reduce the risk of heart attack and stroke, but lowering LDL with other medications does not work as well. The benefits of statins may reflect their other effects on the body, including fighting inflammation, another risk factor for heart disease. [emphasis mine]
In other words, the assumption that’s been pushed for more than a decade that lowering your cholesterol will lower your risk of heart attack has never been tested or proven. If this isn’t science by myth I don’t know what is.
“Vulcan” and “Cerberus” win the poll to name Pluto’s two unnamed moons.
“Vulcan” and “Cerberus” win the poll to name Pluto’s two unnamed moons. Key quote:
Vulcan was a late addition to the Pluto moon name contenders, and pulled into the lead after Shatner, building on his Capt. James T. Kirk persona, plugged the name on Twitter. Vulcan, the home planet of Kirk’s alien-human hybrid first officer Spock, is not just a fictional world in the Star Trek universe. It is also the name of the god of fire in Roman mythology, and officials at SETI added the sci-fi favorite to the ballot for that reason.
“Vulcan” and “Cerberus” win the poll to name Pluto’s two unnamed moons. Key quote:
Vulcan was a late addition to the Pluto moon name contenders, and pulled into the lead after Shatner, building on his Capt. James T. Kirk persona, plugged the name on Twitter. Vulcan, the home planet of Kirk’s alien-human hybrid first officer Spock, is not just a fictional world in the Star Trek universe. It is also the name of the god of fire in Roman mythology, and officials at SETI added the sci-fi favorite to the ballot for that reason.
The world’s smallest optical space telescopes to launch on Monday.
The world’s smallest optical space telescopes to launch on Monday.
The world’s smallest optical space telescopes to launch on Monday.
Mammoth Cave is now officially longer than 400 miles.
Mammoth Cave is now officially longer than 400 miles.
This official announcement is a bit old, as the survey work that brought Mammoth over 400 miles was probably done during the October or December 2012 expeditions.
Update: I contacted some of my caving friends who survey in Mammoth regularly, and they have confirmed that the survey reached 400 miles during the October 2012 expedition.
Mammoth Cave is now officially longer than 400 miles.
This official announcement is a bit old, as the survey work that brought Mammoth over 400 miles was probably done during the October or December 2012 expeditions.
Update: I contacted some of my caving friends who survey in Mammoth regularly, and they have confirmed that the survey reached 400 miles during the October 2012 expedition.
R.I.P. Dr. David S. McKay: 1936-2013
R.I.P. Dr. David S. McKay: 1936-2013. More here.
Though he was most famous for being the lead author of the 1996 paper suggesting that fossil life had found in a Martian meteorite, McKay was one of the giants of planetary science whose work was far more extensive and important. He will be missed.
R.I.P. Dr. David S. McKay: 1936-2013. More here.
Though he was most famous for being the lead author of the 1996 paper suggesting that fossil life had found in a Martian meteorite, McKay was one of the giants of planetary science whose work was far more extensive and important. He will be missed.
New data has allowed scientists to lower the chance that the asteroid Apophis will hit the Earth in a future orbit.
New data has allowed scientists to lower the chance that the asteroid Apophis will hit the Earth in a future orbit.
Recent observations from Pan-STARRS PS1 telescope at Haleakala, Hawaii have reduced the current orbital uncertainty by a factor of 5, and radar observations in early 2013 from Goldstone and Arecibo will further improve the knowledge of Apophis’ current position. However, the current knowledge is now precise enough that the uncertainty in predicting the position in 2029 is completely dominated by the so-called Yarkovsky effect, a subtle nongravitational perturbation due to thermal re-radiation of solar energy absorbed by the asteroid. The Yarkovsky effect depends on the asteroid’s size, mass, thermal properties, and critically on the orientation of the asteroid’s spin axis, which is currently unknown. This means that predictions for the 2029 Earth encounter will not improve significantly until these physical and spin characteristics are better determined.
The new report, which does not make use of the 2013 radar measurements, identifies over a dozen keyholes that fall within the range of possible 2029 encounter distances. Notably, the potential impact in 2036 that had previously held the highest probability has been effectively ruled out since its probability has fallen to well below one chance in one million. Indeed only one of the potential impacts has a probability of impact greater than 1-in-a-million; there is a 2-meter wide keyhole that leads to an impact in 2068, with impact odds of about 2.3 in a million.
The second paragraph basically says that the keyholes that might bring Apophis back to Earth are very small, making it unlikely that the asteroid will fly through any one of them in 2029. The first paragraph however notes that it will be impossible to chart the asteroid’s course accurately enough to rule out this possibility until we have more data on the asteroid itself.
New data has allowed scientists to lower the chance that the asteroid Apophis will hit the Earth in a future orbit.
Recent observations from Pan-STARRS PS1 telescope at Haleakala, Hawaii have reduced the current orbital uncertainty by a factor of 5, and radar observations in early 2013 from Goldstone and Arecibo will further improve the knowledge of Apophis’ current position. However, the current knowledge is now precise enough that the uncertainty in predicting the position in 2029 is completely dominated by the so-called Yarkovsky effect, a subtle nongravitational perturbation due to thermal re-radiation of solar energy absorbed by the asteroid. The Yarkovsky effect depends on the asteroid’s size, mass, thermal properties, and critically on the orientation of the asteroid’s spin axis, which is currently unknown. This means that predictions for the 2029 Earth encounter will not improve significantly until these physical and spin characteristics are better determined.
The new report, which does not make use of the 2013 radar measurements, identifies over a dozen keyholes that fall within the range of possible 2029 encounter distances. Notably, the potential impact in 2036 that had previously held the highest probability has been effectively ruled out since its probability has fallen to well below one chance in one million. Indeed only one of the potential impacts has a probability of impact greater than 1-in-a-million; there is a 2-meter wide keyhole that leads to an impact in 2068, with impact odds of about 2.3 in a million.
The second paragraph basically says that the keyholes that might bring Apophis back to Earth are very small, making it unlikely that the asteroid will fly through any one of them in 2029. The first paragraph however notes that it will be impossible to chart the asteroid’s course accurately enough to rule out this possibility until we have more data on the asteroid itself.
In an interview in Australia, the head of the IPCC has admitted that the climate has stopped warming now for the past seventeen years.
Consensus! In an interview in Australia, the head of the IPCC has admitted that the climate has stopped warming now for the past seventeen years.
No computer climate model offered in any IPCC report predicted this long pause in warming. They all instead insisted that because of the increase of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere, the global temperature would have to rise, and do so quickly and with catastrophic results.
In other words, those models were wrong. The climate is very complicated, and we don’t yet understand very well how it functions.
Consensus! In an interview in Australia, the head of the IPCC has admitted that the climate has stopped warming now for the past seventeen years.
No computer climate model offered in any IPCC report predicted this long pause in warming. They all instead insisted that because of the increase of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere, the global temperature would have to rise, and do so quickly and with catastrophic results.
In other words, those models were wrong. The climate is very complicated, and we don’t yet understand very well how it functions.
Using Kepler scientists have discovered a three planet solar system with one planet slightly larger than our Moon.
Using Kepler astronomers have discovered a three planet solar system with one planet slightly larger than our Moon.
Kepler-37’s host star belongs to the same class as our sun, although it is slightly cooler and smaller. All three planets orbit the star at less than the distance Mercury is to the sun, suggesting they are very hot, inhospitable worlds. [The moon-sized] Kepler-37b orbits every 13 days at less than one-third Mercury’s distance from the sun. The estimated surface temperature of this smoldering planet, at more than 800 degrees Fahrenheit (700 degrees Kelvin), would be hot enough to melt the zinc in a penny. Kepler-37c and Kepler-37d, orbit every 21 days and 40 days, respectively.
Using Kepler astronomers have discovered a three planet solar system with one planet slightly larger than our Moon.
Kepler-37’s host star belongs to the same class as our sun, although it is slightly cooler and smaller. All three planets orbit the star at less than the distance Mercury is to the sun, suggesting they are very hot, inhospitable worlds. [The moon-sized] Kepler-37b orbits every 13 days at less than one-third Mercury’s distance from the sun. The estimated surface temperature of this smoldering planet, at more than 800 degrees Fahrenheit (700 degrees Kelvin), would be hot enough to melt the zinc in a penny. Kepler-37c and Kepler-37d, orbit every 21 days and 40 days, respectively.
Scientists have released some results from their look at asteroid 2012 DA14 during its fly-by last week.
Scientists have released some results, including video, from their look at asteroid 2012 DA14 during its fly-by last week. Key quote:
The asteroid’s path was perturbed by Earth’s gravitational field in such a way that it won’t come as close in the foreseeable future.
The video, which I have embeded below the fold, was produced from radar data. It clearly shows the asteroid’s rotation.
» Read more
Scientists have released some results, including video, from their look at asteroid 2012 DA14 during its fly-by last week. Key quote:
The asteroid’s path was perturbed by Earth’s gravitational field in such a way that it won’t come as close in the foreseeable future.
The video, which I have embeded below the fold, was produced from radar data. It clearly shows the asteroid’s rotation.
» Read more