Tag: Moon

Blue Origin’s 1st unmanned lunar lander completes ground testing

8:01 am

Blue Moon MK-1 in testing chamber
Blue Origin’s unmanned Blue Moon MK-1 lunar lander
in test chamber. Click for original image.

Blue Origin’s 1st unmanned lunar lander, dubbed Blue Moon Mark-1 (MK-1) or “Endurance,” has completed ground testing at the Johnson Space Center in Houston, prior to its planned launch before the end of this year.

The NASA press release however said nothing about the results of that testing.

Testing in NASA Johnson’s Chamber A, one of the world’s largest thermal vacuum test facilities, enabled engineers to model the vacuum of space and the extreme temperature conditions the spacecraft would experience during flight. By recreating these conditions on the ground, teams evaluated system performance and verified structural and thermal integrity prior to launch. NASA and Blue Origin will incorporate lessons learned from MK1’s design, integration, and testing to support NASA’s future Artemis missions that will return American astronauts to the Moon.

Normally when such testing is completed the press release touts their success. The vagueness in the language above is to my instincts somewhat concerning. Did they find something in that testing that needs modification prior to launch? If so, getting this lander off the ground before the end of the year is going to be questionable, as those fixes will have to be incorporated and then tested again.

Any delay such as this would in turn impact the first test in orbit of Blue Origin’s manned Blue Moon MK-2 lunar lander, scheduled for late 2027 during the Artemis-3 manned mission, where NASA wishes to test rendezvous and docking for both Blue Origin’s lander and SpaceX’s Starship.

Some clarity here would be reassuring.

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Falcon 9 upper stage to hit the Moon in August

9:28 am

Falcon 9 impact on Moon in August
Click for original image.

According to astronomer Bill Gray, who also tracks orbital objects, the upper stage of the Falcon 9 that launched Firefly’s Blue Ghost and Ispace’s Hakuto-R2 lunar landers in January 2025 will hit the Moon on August 5, 2026.

For some time, I’ve provided some software tools astronomers can use to identify satellites in their data. I use the US military’s publicly available satellite data for many objects, and compute orbits for high-orbiting objects the military doesn’t track.

This object falls squarely in the latter category. In September 2025, my software for computing orbits analyzed the observations and projected an impact with the moon on 2026 August 5.

While this looked like a pretty solid prediction, I couldn’t be totally sure of it at the time. The motion of space junk is mostly quite predictable; it simply moves under the influence of the gravity of the earth, moon, sun, and planets. We know those with immense precision. If those were the only factors involved, I could probably tell you where and when this object would hit the moon to within a few meters and a fraction of a second.

The problem is that space junk in general, and 2025-010D in particular [the upper stage], is also pushed around by sunlight (“solar radiation pressure”). This is an extremely gentle force, but over months, it can really build up. And it’s not entirely predictable. As an object tumbles, it may catch more or less sunlight, and may reflect some of it sideways. So sunlight is mostly pushing the object away from the sun, but there’s a slight bit of pushing in other directions as well.

With enough data, we can actually figure out where the forces are pushing an object. But they do change a little over time in ways that aren’t perfectly predictable. So I can be sure it will impact near the time and place I’ve predicted, but those varying forces mean that the actual impact will be at least a little off from that time and place. That’s the largest source of uncertainty in all this, and there’s no way to correct for it; we just have to wait and see what actually happens. (But come August, we’ll have a quite precise idea of where it will hit.

At present, Gray predicts the impact will occur at 2:44 am (Eastern) on August 5, 2026. The image above is his present estimate of where it will hit, as seen from Earth. If this prediction holds, the impact itself will likely not be visible from Earth, as it will occur in daylight and at the very western limb of the Moon. This prediction however could change somewhat in the next few months.

When it hits Gray estimates the stage will be moving at about 5,400 miles per hour, or 1.51 miles per second. Expect the science team for Lunar Reconnaissance Orbiter (LRO) to try to image this impact after the fact.

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Orion survives re-entry, crew splashes down safe

5:27 pm

Orion just after main parachute deployment
Orion just after main parachute deployment

Orion successfully survived re-entry tonight with its questionable heat shield, with the capsule splashing down off the coast of California at 8:07 pm (Eastern).

All four astronauts are healthy and safe. As of posting they were still in the capsule, floating on the ocean, with recovery crews on their way to it. [Update: those recovery crews, six boats with more than 40 people, are taking an ungodly amount of time to latch onto the capsule and begin recovery. Over an hour after splashdown the crew is still in the capsule.]

The Artemis-2 mission is now over, though the final condition of that heat shield still needs to be analyzed. In addition, engineers need figure out how to fix a bunch of other issues that took place during the mission:

  • A leak in an internal helium tank on Europe’s service module
  • Communication drop-outs several times
  • the endless issues with Orion’s toilet

There were other minor issues that cropped up repeatedly, none significant but all of which should be fixed. And though it will be helpful to determine how this heat shield performed, it should be noted that the data is essentially irrelevant to future missions. The next mission, Artemis-3, will use a completely different design, and test it for the first time on a manned flight. That flight however will be in Earth orbit, so the stress on the shield will be far less than this return, even with the changed re-entry path.

Though many will call this lunar fly-by “historic,” it will likely be little remembered by future generations. It did little to move the settlement of the solar system forward. No truly useful engineering was tested. The rocket and capsule are engineering dead-ends. Neither will be of much use for establishing colonies on the Moon or Mars, as SLS is still too expensive and too difficult to stack and launch and Orion is too small for any interplanetary missions, being nothing more than an overweight and very expensive ascent/descent capsule.

The only plus of this mission is that it will likely give NASA’s administrator, Jared Isaacman, the political clout to institute major changes in the entire Artemis program, changes that could make the American colonization of the solar system more likely. There are strong indications that he wants to make better use of the private sector.

And that private sector is poised to bypass NASA, regardless of what NASA wants or tries to do, with capabilities far better then anything we have seen since the Apollo program.

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Orion’s risky return-to-Earth happens tonight at 8:07 pm (Eastern)

9:47 am

The Earth as seen by the Artemis-2 astronauts, from behind the Moon
The Earth and Moon during the lunar fly-by on April 6, 2026.
Click for original image.

After spending ten days in space, including a swing around the back of the Moon, the four-person Artemis-2 crew is now preparing for its return-to-Earth this evening, splashing down off the Pacific coast near San Diego.

At 10:53 p.m. EDT [last night], the Orion spacecraft ignited its thrusters for 9 seconds, producing an acceleration in velocity of 5.3 feet-per-second and pushing the Artemis II crew toward Earth. The crew is now more than halfway home.

About two hours before the burn, there was an unexpected return link loss of signal during a data rate change affecting the transmission of communications and telemetry from the spacecraft to the ground. Two-way communications were reestablished, and flight controllers resumed preparing for the upcoming burn with the crew shortly after.

…The third return trajectory correction burn is scheduled for April 10 at about 1:53 p.m. ahead of re-entry procedures.

This is I think the second time Orion has had a short loss of communications with ground control. In addition, the crew had to cancel a planned manual piloting demonstration of Orion while it flew past the Moon because of a leak in an internal helium tank, used to maintain pressure in the oxygen tank as the propellant is used. The leak was inside the European-built service module, which will be jettisoned before re-entry and burn up in the atmosphere.

Mission managers say this leak has not impacted any engine burns, but it will require attention before the next flight.

The return to Earth however carries the biggest risk of the entire mission. Orion’s heat shield is questionable. During its first use in the 2022 unmanned Artemis-1 flight around the Moon, it did not behave as expected, with large chunks breaking off instead of thin layers ablating away. Though mission engineers have adjusted the flight path through the atmosphere to mitigate stress, there is great uncertainty about that solution.

I have embedded NASA’s live stream of the return-to-Earth below. It begins at 6:30 pm (Eastern), though the first return event, jettison the service module, doesn’t occur until 7:33 pm (Eastern).
» Read more

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Orion completes short 15-second burn to refine its return-to-Earth

8:10 pm

The Earth as seen from behind the Moon
The Earth as seen from Orion just before the capsule swung behind
the Moon yesterday. Click for this and other Artemis-2 lunar images.

The Orion capsule today completed a 15-second engine burn in order to fine-tune its return path for splashdown in the Pacific Ocean on April 10th.

At 8:03 p.m. EDT, the Orion spacecraft, named Integrity, ignited its thrusters for 15 seconds, producing a change in velocity of 1.6 feet-per-second and guiding the Artemis II crew toward Earth. NASA astronaut Christina Koch and CSA (Canadian Space Agency) astronaut Jeremy Hansen reviewed procedures and monitored the spacecraft’s configuration and navigation data.

During today’s mission status briefing, NASA officials shared the first images received from the crew during the lunar flyby and confirmed that the USS John P. Murtha has left port and is headed to the midway point toward the recovery site in the Pacific Ocean.

This was Orion’s second small engine burn since it left Earth orbit on April 2, 2026. Unlike the Apollo missions to the Moon in the 1960s-1970s, which involved entering and leaving lunar orbit and doing complex maneuvers while there, the Artemis-2 mission around the Moon has largely been a passive one. The capsule was sent on this course at the start, and has been coasting since. Today’s burn was merely a small adjustment, not a major burn.

The re-entry on April 10, 2026 remains the key moment of the flight, as it has always been. Will that questionable heat shield do as NASA’s engineers predict and work to protect the four astronauts during re-entry? Or will it do things unexpected, because those engineers really don’t understand the engineering issues involved?

I am hopeful and optimistic. I also know that even if everything turns out fine, this flight will simply be a demonstration that NASA has learned nothing from the Challenger and Columbia accidents, and is still willing to risk human lives in order to win some political kudos and get some good PR. And for that reason I am not confident of the agency’s ability to truly do what it says, safely and competently.

One more note: Though the images being sent back are quite beautiful, they are hardly ground-breaking. Lunar Reconnaissance Orbiter has mapped the entire surface of the Moon at much great resolution, far better than anything seen on this mission. NASA might claim the astronauts are doing science, but most of it is minor and not very significant. When you get down to it, this is simply a very expensive tourist trip for four government employees, paid for at an ungodly cost by the American taxpayer.

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Orion completes small mid-course-correction engine burn as it prepares to swing around behind the Moon

9:41 am

The Moon as seen by Orion's astronauts
The Moon as seen by Orion’s astronauts on April 4th, cropped
and reduced to post here. Click for original image.

NASA’s manned Orion capsule last night completed small mid-course-correction engine burn to refine the spacecraft’s trajectory around the Moon and back to Earth.

Mission control teams in Houston and the Artemis II crew completed an outbound correction burn to refine the Orion spacecraft’s trajectory to the Moon. The burn began at 11:03 p.m. EDT and lasted 17.5 seconds. NASA astronauts Reid Wiseman, Victor Glover, and Christina Koch, along with CSA (Canadian Space Agency) astronaut Jeremy Hansen, continue on a precise path to flyby the Moon on Monday, April 6.

The lunar fly-by is scheduled for this evening. As the capsule swings around behind the Moon, there will be a communications black-out from 6:44 pm (Eastern) to 7:25 pm (Eastern). NASA is making a concerted PR effort to compare this to the Apollo 8 mission around the Moon, but the differences are gigantic. Apollo 8 went into orbit around the Moon. There was considerable risk it could get stuck there if its engine failed to fire properly when behind the Moon on its last orbit. Thus, that Apollo 8 blackout was quite tension-filled.

Orion’s fly-around is instead completely benign. They aren’t going into orbit, and they are already on their path back to Earth. There will be no extra element of risk as they fly behind the Moon. All they will be doing is coast along, as they have been doing since leaving Earth orbit. They will simply be out of touch for about 40 minutes.

I sadly remain personally bored by this mission. It is is testing relatively little new engineering for future use, and is mostly designed as a PR stunt to convince everyone that “NASA is back!” Hardly. The capabilities of SLS and Orion are extremely limited, and both are ungodly expensive. Neither will make possible any colonization of the solar system. All they do is act as a jobs program for government employees.

And there still remains this mission’s biggest moment of danger, re-entry and splashdown, using Orion’s questionable heat shield that did not behave properly on its only previous unmanned mission in 2022.

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Orion fires engines and is now on its way around the Moon

4:55 pm

After reviewing the operation of Orion capsule during its first day in orbit, the NASA Artemis-2 management team approved sending the spacecraft to the Moon.

The burn occurred at 7:49 Eastern. The live stream of that burn is embedded below.

At this moment NASA and the crew are committed. No matter what happens, they cannot return to Earth any earlier than about nine days from now. And when they return, they will have to do a direct dive into the atmosphere, heading to splashdown. The Orion heat shield at that point must work.
» Read more

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Ispace to replace engine on its lunar lander, delaying its NASA mission to 2030

9:09 am

Ispace's old and new landers

The Japanese lunar lander startup Ispace has been forced to institute a major shake-up of its upgraded lunar lander design because a subcontractor’s engine did not meet the required specifications.

The engine, called Voidrunner and built by Agile Space Industries, was about to be installed in the lander for a 2027 launch of NASA lunar lander mission when a review found its performance to be unsatisfactory.

After closely monitoring the engine’s status and conducting careful review, Ispace has determined that a change in the development plan to incorporate a new alternative engine is necessary to ensure the successful execution of the lunar landing mission. The new engine, which will replace VoidRunner, has already been developed by the alternative supplier and has a proven track record of operation in past lunar missions.

The company has also decided to standardize its two lunar lander designs, one developed in Japan and the second in parallel by its American division. The new lander, dubbed Ultra, will use this new engine and fly all of Ispace’s subsequent missions. The image above shows the company’s original lander Hakuto-R on the left, compared to its new Ultra lander on the right.

This change will delay its planned NASA mission by three years, to 2030, though the company hopes it will not impact the schedule of two other lunar lander missions for Japan. Its new updated schedule, all using Ultra:

  • 2028: a Japanese mission funded by Japan’s Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry
  • 2029: a Japanese mission funded by Japan’s Space Strategy Fund (designed at encouraging the private space sector
  • 2030: NASA’s mission, being built in partnership with the American company Draper

Ispace has also created a new lunar satellite program, to provide communications, location data, and satellite tracking from lunar orbit, with a goal of launching its first lunar orbiter by next year, and five by 2030.

As a lunar lander company Ispace has had a very mixed record. It has successfully flown two landers to lunar orbit and then down to the surface. Each however crashed, failing just prior to landing due to software issues. This new delay of its NASA mission is not going to please NASA administrator Jared Isaacman, who instead wants to speed up the agency’s lunar lander program, flying almost monthly beginning in 2030. It likely means Ispace is going to have problems winning any new NASA lander contracts, until it proves its new Ultra lander design.

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Intuitive Machines wins $180.4 million new NASA lunar lander contract

8:46 am

Intuitive Machines' Nova-D lunar lander
Click for original.

The lunar lander startup Intuitive Machines announced yesterday that it has won its fifth contract from NASA, a $180.4 million deal to place its larger upgraded Nova-D lander near the Moon’s south pole.

The IM-5 mission will target Mons Malapert, a ridge near the Lunar South Pole that offers continuous Earth visibility, stable illumination conditions, and access to permanently shadowed regions. These characteristics make the site a compelling location for future communications, navigation, and surface infrastructure.

The artist’s rendering to the right shows this Nova-D lander. What stands out immediately is its low-slung appearance. Intuitive Machines’ smaller Nova-C lander was tall (see this image), with a high center of gravity. In its only two landing attempts on the Moon it tipped over both times after touchdown. It appears the company has finally recognized the issue and reworked this new lander to make it more stable after touchdown.

This contract award appears to be part of the accelerated program by NASA administrator Jared Isaacman to land 30 unmanned rovers on the moon in three years, beginning in 2027. Mons Malapert is a plateau that Intuitive Machines second lander tipped over on. It is also the landing site for Astrobotics’ Griffin lander, as well as a candidate landing site for the first Artemis manned missions.

Note the small rover on the right in the graphic. While the mission will carry seven NASA science instrument payloads, it will also carry this commercial rover, built by Honeybee Robotics, a subsidiary of Blue Origin. As the company states above, the lander on this mission also has additional available payload capacity for more commercial customers.

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Canada cancels small lunar rover that was to fly on Firefly’s Blue Ghost lander in ’29

2:13 pm

Even as Canada has increased its government space spending in Europe and in Canada — mostly it appears to prop up bureaucracies or failing businesses — its space agency has at the same time cancelled its first lunar rover project, scheduled to brought to the south pole of the Moon by a Firefly Blue Ghost lander in 2029.

As part of its 2026-2027 departmental plan, the Canadian Space Agency (CSA) has cancelled its ambitious lunar rover mission. The lunar rover was announced in 2022. It would have been Canada’s first rover, built by Canadensys, and hitching a ride to the moon on a commercial launch vehicle built by a private U.S. company, Firefly Aerospace.

…The principal investigator of the mission, Gordon Osinski, a planetary geologist from Western University, said that he found out about a month ago, and that he was “devastated” by the news.

Note that this rover was hardly “ambitious.” It was a small unmanned rover comparable to similar rovers deployed by India, Japan, and others, mostly aimed at testing the engineering for later larger rovers.

The real issue however is how this decision illustrates Canada’s leftist government misplaced priorities. Increasingly it appears it is canceling actual space research or planetary missions and shifting the money to other uses, either European projects or bureaucracies in Canada or failing Canadian businesses.

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SLS/Orion have begun 12-hour trip from VAB to launchpad

8:59 am

Artemis-2 mission flight path
The Artemis-2 flight path. Click for full animation.

NASA engineers today began the long and slow 12-hour trip of the SLS rocket from the Vehicle Assembly Building (VAB) to the launchpad in preparation for a targeted April 1, 2026 launch date of this Artemis-2 mission around the Moon.

NASA’s Artemis II SLS (Space Launch System) rocket and Orion spacecraft slated to send four astronauts around the Moon began rolling to Launch Pad 39B at 12:20 a.m. EDT on Friday, March 20. Rollout operations at the agency’s Kennedy Space Center in Florida were delayed earlier in the day due to high winds in the area.

The trek to the pad is expected to take up to 12 hours, as NASA’s crawler-transporter 2 carefully carries the rocket on top of the mobile launcher approximately 4 miles along the crawlerway.

The launch will send four astronauts on a ten-day mission swinging around the Moon and back to Earth, using a questionable heat shield and a life support system not yet been tested in space. On the first unmanned Artemis-1 mission around the Moon in 2022, the shield experienced far more damage than predicted, with large chunks breaking off. NASA engineers think they understand why this happened, and have decided that they can mitigate the problem by using a less stressful flight path upon return into Earth’s atmosphere.

They don’t really know if this is so, but they hope so. As for the life support system, the plan is to remain in a high Earth orbit for the mission’s first day to test it. If it has problems then, the crew will be able to return to Earth somewhat quickly. If it has problems after heading to the Moon, however, that won’t be possible.

If a private company tried to convince NASA to do this mission with these issues, the agency would say “Hell no!” It is proceeding because, like the Challenger and Columbia failures, it is a NASA-built project and politics and schedule have superseded safety and good engineering procedures

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Scientists: Shadowcam images suggest there is little water in permanently shadowed lunar craters

8:58 am

Shadowcam-LRO mosaic
The floor of Shackleton Crater showing no obvious ice deposits,
as seen by Shadowcam, imposed on a Lunar Reconnaissance Orbiter
image. The black cross marks the south pole. Click for original image.

In a new paper published yesterday, the science team for the low-light Shadowcam instrument on South Korea’s lunar orbiter Danuri confirmed their earlier conclusion from 2024, that there appears to be far less water ice than expected in the permanently shadowed lunar craters near the Moon’s south pole. From their abstract:

We used the high-reflectance and forward-scattering optical properties to search for water ice in lunar PSRs [permanently shaded regions]. We found no evidence of widespread water ice in PSRs at abundances above the detection limit of 20 to 30 wt % but could not rule out widespread low-content water ice. A few small locations with both high reflectance and forward-scattering behavior were observed, which could be consistent with >10 wt % ice.

And from their conclusion:

Our manual examination of ShadowCam radiance images that cover all lunar PSRs suggests either that most of the lunar PSRs lack surface ice exposures or that their ice concentration is below the detection limit, approximately 20 to 30 wt % on the basis of the visible reflectance enhancement, which aligns well with previous ShadowCam findings. Only a few candidate high-reflectance anomalies were seen, which, if they are water ice, is consistent with previous sparse detections of lunar surface water ice.

There is still a chance there is water ice in these permanently shadowed craters, but it appears once again that if it exists, it will likely require processing to extract it from the soil, and there won’t be that much available regardless.

These results are not conclusive, but they do suggest that the south pole of the Moon will not be as ideal a location for a lunar base as previously imagined.

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The first Artemis lunar landings might not go to the Moon’s south pole

10:09 am

It appears from remarks recently by one NASA official, that while the south pole remains the agency’s main lunar base target, it is now looking into other landing options in order to make those first manned landing less risky and easier and quicker to achieve.

Amit Kshatriya, NASA Associate Administrator was very vague in his statement, but nonetheless this was what it appears he was saying:

We have opened up the, I would say, the performance specification for the early landing missions in as many ways as we can, in terms of different lunar orbits we want to take, or different other constraints … to make it as agile as possible, to recognize performance limitations in some of the machines we have and let our providers tell us, hey, if you took these constraints out of the way, how could we go faster? So we’re going to do that.

The agency’s administrator, Jared Isaacman, is also pushing to quickly begin sending a lot of unmanned landers to the south pole by next year. Thus, under this plan, we might actually find out first whether there really is water in those permanently shadowed craters, before committing our manned lunar base to this location.

This new approach makes a great deal of sense, especially since the data that has looked into those craters has been very inconclusive, some positive and some negative.

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A day-by-day description of the entire Artemis-2 manned mission

10:04 am

NASA today posted a detailed day-by-day description of the entire ten-day Artemis-2 manned mission around the Moon, outlining the tasks planned for the astronauts on each day.

The launch is now targeting April 1, 2026.

The description of their closest approach to the Moon is both interesting and underwhelming.

The Artemis II crew will come their closest to the Moon on flight day 6, while traveling the farthest from Earth. Artemis II could set a record for the farthest anyone has traveled from Earth depending on launch day, breaking the current record – 248,655 miles away – set in 1970 by the Apollo 13 crew. The distance the Artemis II crew will travel depends on their exact launch day and time.

Over the course of the day, the crew will come within 4,000 to 6,000 miles of the lunar surface as they swing around the far side of the Moon – it should look to them about the size of a basketball held at arm’s length. [emphasis mine]

In other words, Orion is not going to get very close, and in fact, the Moon will only be 2 to 3 times bigger than what we see here on Earth. I suspect the best photographs taken will be those showing both the Earth and Moon, both of which will be relatively small.

Overall, I remain highly concerned about this mission. The life support system has never been tested in space before, and they will spend the first day checking it out in Earth orbit. And the return to Earth will involve using a heat shield that did not perform well on the Artemis-1 mission in 2022, losing chunks during re-entry.

They hope a less stressful flight path will mitigate this issue, but then, they need to hit that flight path perfectly on their way back from the Moon. During yesterday’s briefing it was obvious this was a concern to NASA officials.

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Chinese scientists pinpoint a prime landing site for its manned lunar mission

9:21 am

Potential landing site for China's manned lunar landing

Though no final decision has apparently been made, a just published research paper suggests that China is considering a location almost dead center on the Moon’s near side, on the edge of a mare region dubbed Sinus Aestruum, for its first manned lunar landing, presently targeting a 2030 launch date. From the abstract:

We propose four prospective landing sites in the traversable areas, which provide a range of diverse geological samples, including volcanic debris, mare basalts, Copernicus crater ejecta and high-Th materials. Such a collection may provide insights into the geological evolution of the region and enhance our understanding of the lunar mantle composition and volcanic processes.

The red star on global lunar map to the right, taken from figure 1 of the paper, shows the location of this region. The lower map zooms into the region, with the four stars indicating the four prospective landing sites. The region has several rilles, long meandering channels thought to have formed from lava flow, that could be reached during an EVA.

Though it appears the scientists of this paper are lobbying for this landing region and no final decision has been reached, its location and wide variety of geology strongly suggests this will be the final choice. If so, of the four landing sites outlined two are in the smoother mare regions, and two are off the edge, in rougher terrain. For safety considerations, it is likely the final landing site will be in one of the former.

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Voyager to make “a multi-million-dollar strategic investment” in Max Space’s inflatable habitats

3:16 pm

Voyager-Max lunar habitat
Click for original image.

In an expansion of a partnership announced last month, Voyager Technologies — the lead company in the consortium building the Starlab space station — today announced it is now making “a multi-million-dollar strategic investment” in Max Space’s inflatable habitats, aiming at winning contracts both for NASA’s proposed Moon base as well as any other “future deep space missions.”

The actual dollar amount has not yet been released, but my sources say it is in “the low eight figures,” or more than $10 million but probably less than $25 million.

This partnership appears aimed not at NASA’s space station program nor enhancing Starlab. Instead, it is focused on providing NASA (and other commercial operations) inflatable habitats that can be launched and quickly established on the Moon and elsewhere, as shown by the artist’s rendering to the right. It appears Voyager will build the foundation, base, and airlock, while Max will provide the inflatable module above. From the press release:

This initiative directly supports NASA’s historical Artemis Program and aligns precisely with Administrator Isaacman’s announcement to be on the Moon to stay by 2028. Max Space delivers critical enabling infrastructure, maximizing livable volume, enhancing crew safety, and reducing the cost and complexity of surface deployment. It complements Voyager’s broader lunar roadmap, including cislunar mission management, surface logistics, propulsion, power systems, and future surface infrastructure, reinforcing a shared vision of the Moon as an operational domain, not a temporary destination.

In other words, the two companies are aiming to become major suppliers for NASA’s Artemis lunar base, and to do that by offering a way to get it quickly built and operational, at a reasonable cost.

I suspect it will be a few years before NASA issues any such contracts. It will first want to see both companies demonstrate success, both with Voyager’s Starlab and Max Space’s own demo station module scheduled for launch in ’27. Nonetheless, this announcement puts them on the map in the race to get those contracts, and begins to put some commercial reality to the American colonization of the solar system.

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China outlines plans for manned space program

10:26 am

China’s state-run press today outlined a short update on the status of its manned space station program as well as its planned manned lunar landing, still targeting a 2030 launch.

For the space station, these are its upcoming plans:

China is scheduled to launch two crewed missions and one cargo spacecraft mission for its space station operation in 2026, according to the China Manned Space Agency (CMSA). An astronaut from the Hong Kong or Macao special administrative region is expected to carry out a space station flight mission as early as this year, the CMSA noted.

One astronaut from the Shenzhou-23 crew will conduct a year-long in-orbit stay experiment, the CMSA said.

I am willing to bet that China is planning an even longer station mission that will break Valeri Polyakov’s 14.5 month record mission, set in the 1990s on Mir.

As for China’s lunar landing plans, nothing new was announced:

China is targeting a crewed lunar landing by 2030. The development of major flight products, including the Long March-10 carrier rocket, the Mengzhou crewed spacecraft, and the Lanyue lunar lander, is proceeding smoothly. Key tests have been completed, including the zero-height abort test for the Mengzhou spacecraft, the landing and takeoff test for the Lanyue lunar lander, the static fire test and the low-altitude demonstration and validation test for the Long March-10 rocket system, and the maximum dynamic pressure escape test for the Mengzhou spacecraft system.

In 2026, the country will intensify efforts to advance the construction of supporting facilities and equipment for the lunar mission at the Wenchang Spacecraft Launch Site in southern Hainan Province, as well as the development of ground support systems.

China has not yet outlined a program of missions leading up to that lunar landing. Like Apollo and now Artemis, it makes sense to do low orbit rendezvous and docking tests of these various spacecraft before heading to the Moon. It also makes sense to do these same tests first in lunar orbit, before landing. Expect China to announce such a program soon, for launch in the 2027-2029 timeframe.

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New analysis suggests Moon’s magnetic field shifted multiple times from weak to strong to weak

10:03 am

The uncertainty of science: A new analysis of Apollo lunar samples suggests that the Moon’s magnetic field actually shifted back and forth from strong to weak, with it being weak most of the time.

The problem scientists have had since the Apollo missions is that the Apollo samples, which all came from the relatively flat mare regions, tended to exhibit evidence of a strong past magnetic field, even though the Moon’s size and make-up suggested its field should have always been weak. This new research offers a solution:

The research team analysed the chemical makeup of a type of lunar rock – known as the Mare basalts – and found a new correlation between their titanium content and how strongly magnetised they are. Every lunar sample which had recorded a strong magnetic field also contained large amounts of titanium – and the samples containing less than 6 wt.% titanium were all associated with a weak magnetic field.

This suggests that the formation of high-titanium rocks and the generation of a strong lunar magnetic field are linked. The researchers believe that both were caused by melting of titanium-rich material deep inside the Moon, temporarily generating a very strong magnetic field.

Because the Mare basalts were an ideal landing site for the Apollo missions, due to being relatively flat, the astronauts brought back far more of the titanium-rich basalts (containing evidence for a strong magnetic field) than are representative of the lunar surface. As a result, large numbers of these rocks have been analysed by scientists back on Earth, and this was previously interpreted to mean that the lunar magnetic field was strong for long periods of its history.

Instead, the limited number of samples, all from the same regions, biased the conclusions. The scientists predict that future missions to more places on the Moon will confirm their findings.

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NASA today completes SLS wet dress rehearsal with few problems

8:35 pm

NASA today successfully completed its SLS wet dress rehearsal countdown with few problems, fueling the rocket completely and then running the countdown down to T-33 seconds and then recycling back to T-10 minutes and running the countdown down again, this time to T-29 seconds.

During the day-long event there were only two minor issues, neither of significance. Early in the day there was “an issue with ground communications” that required mission control to shift to “backup communication methods” for about a half hour before the issue was resolved.

Then, during the first countdown to T-33 the count was paused and recycled once “due to a booster avionics system voltage anomaly.” This also appeared to be minor issue quickly resolved.

NASA will hold a press conference tomorrow at 11 am (Eastern) to discuss the results of the entire rehearsal.

NASA administrator Jared Isaacman had stated previously that he needed to see a perfect rehearsal before he would approve the launch of Artemis-2, carrying four astronauts on a ten-day mission around the Moon. While today’s rehearsal was not “perfect,” the issues were very minor. I suspect he will give the okay, with a tentative launch date of March 6, 2026 already being considered. The present launch window closes on April 6, 2026.

That mission, should it fly, still carries enormous risk. The Orion capsule will be using a life support system never tested in space before. It will also be using a heat shield that is questionable, having failed to behave as expected in the first Artemis mission in 2022.

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Engine problems for Japan’s lunar lander company Ispace

9:27 am

According to company officials, the Japanese lunar lander company Ispace is having issues with the engine is has been developing for its next (and third) lander mission — a joint project with the American company Draper — problems that have now delayed the mission from ’26 to ’27.

In an earnings call discussing its fiscal third-quarter financial results this month, ispace executives said issues with development of the new VoidRunner engine could delay the company’s next lander mission. VoidRunner is a joint project between ispace’s U.S. subsidiary and Agile Space Industries, a U.S. space propulsion company, announced in May 2025. It replaced an Agile Space engine originally planned for use on the Apex 1.0 lander that ispace U.S. is developing.

Changing the engine required modifications to the lander design, Ispace said at the time, delaying its use on a mission led by Draper for NASA’s Commercial Lunar Payload Services, or CLPS, program from 2026 to 2027. That mission to the lunar farside is designated Mission 3 by Ispace.

Ispace has made two attempts to land on the Moon. In both cases, the mission worked perfectly until the last moments, resulting in a crash rather than a soft landing. In the first case software had the engines shut down when the spacecraft was still about three miles above the ground, while in the second case the spacecraft’s laser range-finder provided incorrect altitude data.

It presently has contracts for three more missions, the one for NASA working with Draper, a second for Japan in ’28, and a third for Europe in ’29. That it has had to replace the engines on the first (and might have to do it on the second) is a very bad sign. Usually it is best practice to build and test the engine first, get it right, and then build the spacecraft or rocket around it. Replacing an engine usually signals larger design problems that are difficult if not impossible to fix.

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NASA now targeting February 19, 2026 for 2nd SLS wet dress rehearsal countdown

8:20 am

According to an announcement yesterday afternoon, NASA is now targeting February 19, 2026 for the second SLS wet dress rehearsal countdown.

During the rehearsal, the team will execute a detailed countdown sequence. Operators will conduct two runs of the last ten minutes of the countdown, known as terminal count. They will pause at T-1 minute and 30 seconds for up to three minutes, then resume until T-33 seconds before launch and pause again. After that, they will recycle the clock back to T-10 minutes and conduct a second terminal countdown to just inside of T-30 seconds before ending the sequence. This process simulates real-world conditions, including scenarios where a launch might be scrubbed due to technical or weather issues.

If this dress rehearsal goes off perfectly, NASA is considering the possibility of an actual launch attempt on March 6, 2026, though it admits that date is very preliminary That launch will carry four astronauts on a ten-day mission slingshot around the Moon and back to Earth, using an Orion capsule with untested life support system and a questionable heat shield.

The present launch window for this mission closes on April 6th, so NASA’s margins will shrink considerably if this second dress rehearsal has any further problems.

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FAKE Chandrayaan-2 images of the Apollo 11 and 12 landing sites

8:30 am

Chandrayaan-2 images of Apollo 11 and Apollo 12 landing sites

The pictures to the right are fake, as are the two stories I had linked to in the now crossed-out post below. Both stories included pictures of the Apollo 11 and Apollo 12 landing sites that were fake and did not match the actual pictures taken earlier by Lunar Reconnaissance Orbiter.

I seem to remember that Chandrayaan-2 had taken pictures of these Apollo landing sites, but I have not been able to find those originals. Either way, the stories below as well as the pictures to the right are fake, and for that reason I have deleted the links to both.

For reasons I don’t understand, two different news outlets in the past two days decided to highlight the 2021 images taken by India’s Chandrayaan-2 lunar orbiter of the Apollo 11 and 12 landing sites, with both outlets claiming these pictures provided third-party verification that those manned lunar landings actually happened.

Those pictures are to the right. They aren’t new, but they are so good I decided they were cool enough to post again.

As for proving the lunar landing happened, that is pure anti-American silliness, sadly too often pushed by ignorant Americans. They should be ashamed. The Apollo landings were possibly the greatest single achievement Americans have ever accomplished. And if not the greatest, the landings rank near the top, and above all they certainly were among our noblest achievement.

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India picks landing site for its Chandrayaan-4 lunar sample return mission

10:22 am

Landing sites at the Moon's South Pole

Scientists at India’s space agency ISRO have now picked [pdf] a preliminary landing site for its planned Chandrayaan-4 lunar sample return mission, scheduled to launch in 2028.

[Four] sites of Mons Mouton area was fully characterised with respect to terrain characteristics using high resolution OHRC multiview image datasets and it was found that 1km x 1km area around MM-4 (-84.289, 32.808) contains the less hazard percentage, mean slope of 5°, Mean height of 5334m and most number of hazard free grids of size 24m x 24m. Hence MM-4 can be considered for the potential site of Chandrayaan-4 mission.

The study area of all four sites is indicated on the map to the right by the red dot labeled “Chandrayaan-4”. This mountain, Mons Mouton, is essentially a flat plateau between the numerous craters in the south pole region (many with permanently shadowed craters). Intuitive Machines second lander, Athena, attempted a landing there last year, and tipped over, as did that company’s first lander, Odysseus, both indicated in green. Astrobotic’s Griffin lander (yellow) is targeting this mountain also, hopefully to launch later this year.

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NASA targeting January 31, 2026 for Artemis-2 dress rehearsal countdown

8:25 am

The flight plan for the Artemis-2 mission around the Moon
The flight plan for the Artemis-2 mission around the Moon. Click for original.

NASA engineers are now targeting January 31, 2026 for the manned dress rehearsal countdown of the Artemis-2 SLS rocket and Orion capsule.

The upcoming wet dress rehearsal is a prelaunch test to fuel the rocket. During the rehearsal, teams demonstrate the ability to load more than 700,000 gallons of cryogenic propellants into the rocket, conduct a launch countdown, and practice safely removing propellant from the rocket without astronauts inside the spacecraft.

During several “runs,” the wet dress rehearsal will test the launch team’s ability to hold, resume, and recycle to several different times in the final 10 minutes of the countdown, known as terminal count. The rehearsal will count down to a simulated launch at 9 p.m. EST, but could run to approximately 1 a.m. if needed.

This rehearsal will include the four-person crew inside the Orion capsule, which will once launched take them in a wide ten-day Earth orbit that will swing them past the Moon and then back to Earth. The crew entered quarantine at the end of last week to reduce the chance they will catch any illnesses prior to launch.

This mission carries great risk, as the capsule’s life support system has never been used in space before, while the viability of its heat shield remains questionable.

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Japan’s government gives Ispace a $125 million contract to build a high-precision lunar lander

8:30 am

Is this the first sign that Japan's space agency JAXA is becoming irrelevant?
Is Japan’s failed space agency JAXA finally
starting to become irrelevant?

The Japanese lunar lander startup Ispace last week announced it has won a $125 million contract to build a high-precision lunar lander targeting a 2029 launch in the Moon’s “polar regions”.

Ispace, inc, a global lunar exploration company, announced that the company was selected to implement its proposal for “High Precision Landing Technology in the Lunar Polar Regions” project under the second phase of Japan’s Space Strategy Fund. The technology will be implemented in ispace’s Mission 6, with development now underway.

The funding amount is subject to change based on stage gate reviews and other factors, so full receipt is not guaranteed at this time.

The mission will also include a lunar orbiter that will act as a relay communication satellite that will also remain in orbit after the mission to provide communications for future missions, not only for polar missions but for missions to the Moon’s far side.

Ispace plans to use some of the technology it is developing for its 2nd generation lunar lander, scheduled to fly in ’28.

This contract is significant because it appears to leave ownership of the project entirely in Ispace’s hands, with Japan’s space agency JAXA having little design or management control. It also appears to use the funds from country’s ten-year $6.6 billion fund as intended. That fund was established in 2023 to support new space startups under the capitalism model, whereby the companies provide the product and government and JAXA are merely the customer.

Up until now it appeared this fund was accomplishing little. In fact, there have been indications that JAXA was trying to repurpose the fund for its own benefit, using it to hire a lot more staff while maintaining control and ownership of any project, rather than let the private sector own its own work.

Since JAXA has increasingly done a very bad job promoting Japan’s space exploration industry, those indications were a very bad sign for Japan’s future in space.

This deal appears however to use that strategic fund properly, even if JAXA might still be skimming a large percentage of the fund off the top. This is not unlike what NASA has been doing. Bureaucrats must be bureaucrats, and all government agencies must be eternal and immortal, no matter what.

Like NASA, however, the success of Ispace and rest of Japan’s private space sector from projects financed by this fund will eventually allow that private sector to make those bureaucrats and JAXA irrelevant. It is happening now in the U.S. It now appears there is a chance it will happen in Japan as well.

Hat tip to BtB’s stringer Jay.

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NASA and Department of Energy agree to place nuclear reactor on Moon by ’30

8:56 am

NASA and Department of Energy have signed an agreement to develop nuclear power stations for NASA lunar base, and are targeting 2030 for placing a nuclear reactor on Moon.

NASA, along with the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE), announced Tuesday a renewed commitment to their longstanding partnership to support the research and development of a fission surface power system for use on the Moon under the Artemis campaign and future NASA missions to Mars.

A recently signed memorandum of understanding between the agencies solidifies this collaboration and advances President Trump’s vision of American space superiority by deploying nuclear reactors on the Moon and in orbit, including the development of a lunar surface reactor by 2030. This effort ensures the United States leads the world in space exploration and commerce. [emphasis mine]

Wanna bet? I’m laying odds that this joint government effort will end up being delayed and overbudget. In fact, the highlighted phrase suggests this work is already experiencing delays and budget overruns. Why else make a big deal about “a renewed commitment”?

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Former astronaut once again blasts NASA decision to fly Artemis-2 manned

10:13 am

Charles Camarda on the shuttle
Charles Camarda on the first shuttle flight
after the Columbia failure.

The opposition to NASA’s decision to fly humans in the Orion capsule around the Moon with a questionable heat shield continues. Charles Camarda, an engineer and former NASA astronaut who has repeatedly expressed concerns about that heat shield and had been invited to attend the review meeting that NASA administrator Isaacman had arranged to ease his concerns, has now revealed his concerns were not eased in the slightest by that meeting, and that the Ars Technica article by Eric Berger that suggested otherwise was wrong, and that he is still “outraged” at NASA’s bad engineering decisions.

The rage you witnessed was my observing the exact behaviors used to construct risk and flight rationale which caused both Challenger and Columbia Accidents. Using “tools” inappropriately and then claiming results to be “Conservative.” Not to mention the reliance on Monte Carlo simulations to predict failure probabilities which were also proven to be inaccurate by orders of magnitude in my book “Mission Out of Control” which you claim to have read.

I suggest, in the spirit of transparency, you should ask NASA to release just the “Findings” of NESC Report TI-23-01849 Volume I. Finding 1 states the analysis cannot accurately predict crack initiation and propagation at flight conditions. And there was so much more which was conveniently not presented.

In other words, he finds NASA’s engineering claims that Orion’s heat shield will work using a different less stressful return trajectory as it dives back into the atmosphere about 25,000 mph to be false and untrustworthy. Worse, he sees it as proof that this is a continuation of the same culture at NASA that resulted in the Columbia failure.

Some of the exact same people responsible for failing to understand the shortcomings of the Crater Analysis tool (used tiny pieces of foam impacts to Shuttle tiles to predict a strike from a piece of foam which was 6000 larger and which caused the Columbia Accident) were on the Artemis Tiger Team now claiming they could predict the outcome of the Orion heatshield using a tool (similar to CRATER) called the Crack Identification Tool (CIT) which was also not physics based and relied on predictions of the key paramenter, permeability, which they claim to be the “root” cause, pressure, to vary by three orders of magnitude (that’s over 1000x).

In defense of NASA, those engineers had also presented data that showed Orion’s hull was strong enough to survive re-entry, even if the heat shield failed entirely. It is unclear if Camarda’s objections here apply to that data as well.

Regardless, his strong public disagreement with NASA on this once again raises serious questions about the upcoming manned Artemis-2 mission, set to launch sometime in the February to March time frame.

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An outline of NASA’s present schedule leading up to the Artemis-2 manned lunar fly-by mission

8:11 am

Link here. The mission will slingshot four astronauts around the Moon and back to Earth. The update includes lots of details about the rollout, the dress rehearsal countdown, the follow-up, and finally the various launch windows and the requirements that determine them.

This paragraph however about those requirements struck me:

The launch day and time must allow SLS to be able to deliver Orion into a high Earth orbit where the crew and ground teams will evaluate the spacecraft’s life support systems before the crew ventures to the Moon.

That life support system will be making its first flight in space, with four humans as the guinea pigs. Though this is another example of NASA putting schedule ahead of safety (the system should have flown at least once unmanned), it does indicate the agency recognizes the risk it is taking, and has added this extra longer orbit to give engineers time to test the system.

There are three launch windows, within which there are only five available launch dates:

January 31 to February 14 (February 6, 7, 8, 10, and 11)
February 28 to March 13 (March 6, 7, 8, 9, 11)
March 27 to April 10 (April 1, 3, 4, 5, 6)

In 2022, once NASA managers chose their first launch window, they were able to get the rocket off on the first attempt. There were no scrubs or aborts, though prior to that attempt the launch date was delayed numerous time over five years. Based on that past history, it is likely the agency will succeed on its first attempt in February, barring weather issues.

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Isaacman okays flying Artemis-2 manned, despite heat shield questions

1:53 pm

According to an article posted today at Ars Technica, after a thorough review NASA administrator Jared Isaacman has decided to allow the Artemis-2 mission — set to launch sometime before April and slingshot around the Moon — to fly manned with four astronauts despite the serious questions that still exist about its heat shield.

The review involved a long meeting at NASA with NASA engineers, several outside but very qualified critics, as well as two reporters (for transparency).

Convened in a ninth-floor conference room at NASA Headquarters known as the Program Review Center, the meeting lasted for more than three hours. Isaacman attended much of it, though he stepped out from time to time to handle an ongoing crisis involving an unwell astronaut on orbit. He was flanked by the agency’s associate administrator, Amit Kshatriya; the agency’s chief of staff, Jackie Jester; and Lori Glaze, the acting associate administrator for NASA’s Exploration Systems Development Mission Directorate. The heat shield experts joined virtually from Houston, along with Orion Program Manager Howard Hu.

Isaacman made it clear at the outset that, after reviewing the data and discussing the matter with NASA engineers, he accepted the agency’s decision to fly Artemis II as planned. The team had his full confidence, and he hoped that by making the same experts available to Camarda and Olivas, it would ease some of their concerns.

My readers know that I have been strongly opposed to flying Artemis-2 manned, an opposition I expressed in an op-ed at PJMedia only yesterday. However, after reading this Ars Technica report, my fears are allayed somewhat by this quote:
» Read more

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Zimmerman Op-Ed at PJ Media

7:50 pm

Orion's damage heat shield
Damage to Orion heat shield caused during re-entry in 2022,
including “cavities resulting from the loss of large chunks”

PJ Media this evening published an op-ed I prepared this week in a last desperate effort to convince both President Trump and NASA administrator Jared Isaacman to rethink the manned nature of the Artemis-2 mission scheduled to launch sometime in the next three months.

President Trump and NASA Administrator Isaacman: Please Take the Crew Off of Artemis II

Nothing I say in this op-ed will be unfamiliar to my readers. I choose to farm it to PJ Media because I wanted it to get as much exposure as possible. As big as my audience is becoming, from 4 to 6 million hits per month, PJ Media has a wider reach.

I also decided in the op-ed to make no general arguments against SLS or Orion. Though my opposition to them is long standing and well known, this is not the time to fight that battle. My goal was simply to get NASA to put engineering ahead of schedule, so as to avoid the possibility of it repeating another Apollo 1 fire or Challenger accident.

I doubt at this point this op-ed will make a difference, but to paraphrase a quote written by Gordon Dickson in his wonderful science fiction book Way of the Pilgrim, there was a hand pushing me from behind, forcing me forward. I had no choice. The image of Orion’s heat shield to the right, after the 2022 return from the Moon, required action.

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