New Trump executive order today guarantees major changes coming to NASA’s Moon program
Change is coming to Artemis!
The White House today released a new executive order that has the typically grand title these type of orders usually have: “Ensuring American Space Superiority”. That it was released one day after Jared Isaacman was confirmed as NASA administrator by the Senate was no accident, as this executive order demands a lot of action by him, with a clear focus on reshaping and better structuring the entire manned exploration program of the space agency.
The order begins about outlining some basic goals. It demands that the U.S. return to the Moon by 2028, establish the “initial elements” a base there by 2030, and do so by “enhancing sustainability and cost-effectiveness of launch and exploration architectures, including enabling commercial launch services and prioritizing lunar exploration.” It also demands this commercial civilian exploration occur in the context of American security concerns.
Above all, the order demands that these goals focus on “growing a vibrant commercial space economy through the power of American free enterprise,” in order to attract “at least $50 billion of additional investment in American space markets by 2028, and increasing launch and reentry cadence through new and upgraded facilities, improved efficiency, and policy reforms.”
To achieve these goals, the order then outlines a number of actions required by the NASA administrator, the secretaries of Commerce, War, and State, as well as the Director of the Office of Management and Budget (OMB) and the Assistant to the President for Domestic Policy (APDP), all coordinated by the assistant to the President for Science and Technology (APST).
All of this is unsurprising. Much of it is not much different than the basic general space goals that every administration has touted for decades. Among this generality however was one very specific item, a demand to complete within 90 days the following review:
by the Secretary of Commerce and the Administrator of NASA, in consultation with the Director of OMB, of their respective major space acquisition programs to identify any such programs that are more than 30 percent behind schedule based on the program’s acquisition baseline, 30 percent over cost based on the program’s baseline, unable to meet any key performance parameters, or unaligned with the priorities in this order, along with a description of their planned mitigation or remediation efforts.
If that isn’t a very precise description of SLS and Orion, I don’t know what is. It appears this executive order is quite specifically laying the political groundwork for ending both, and to do so the Trump administration wants this report on hand to show both Congress and the public. Note too that the report isn’t simply supposed to identify these over-budget and behind schedule programs, but to outline the “planned mitigation or remediation efforts”, efforts that must work to “grow a vibrant commercial space economy through the power of American free enterprise.”
In other words, Trump wants Isaacman to work up a new Artemis program that he can present to Congress, no longer relying on a government-owned rocket (SLS). It is also likely that Isaacman and Trump discussed this entire strategy during their meetings leading up to Trump’s renomination of Isaacman.
What will that new plan entail? You can bet, based on the order’s focus on private enterprise, that it will involve SpaceX, with a strong dash of Blue Origin on the side. It will also include the many American startups planning the first launch of new rockets in 2026 (Rocket Lab, Relativity, Stoke Space) as well as others already established (Firefly and Northrop Grumman). That plan is also going to include the four commercial space station projects under development, as well as all the other peripheral industries involved.
Damage to Orion heat shield caused during re-entry in 2022,
including “cavities resulting from the loss of large chunks”
And you can also bet it will outline the phasing out of SLS, Orion, and possibly Lunar Gateway, as quickly as possible. It might not cancel the already scheduled and funded next three Artemis SLS/Orion missions, but it is also very likely it will recommend that these programs be cancelled thereafter.
The deadline for the release of this report, 90 days from today or the middle of March, also suggests it is intended as a weapon for not only cancelling later SLS/Orion missions, but for forcing a change on the Artemis-2 mission, scheduled for the February-April 2026 time frame. That mission plans to fly four astronauts around the Moon, launched on SLS and flying inside an Orion capsule with a questionable heat shield (see the image to the right) and an untested environmental system. To fly such a manned mission with such questionable equipment is unconscionable, and appears to be another example of NASA putting scheduling ahead of good engineering and safety, as it did with Challenger and Columbia.
The deadline for this report suggests that Trump’s executive order today is precisely aimed at providing Isaacman the political clout he needs to pull those astronauts from that mission, for legitimate safety concerns. When he releases this report in March, he will do so with great fanfare, in a manner that will allow him to take such a politically charged action. All he needs to do is make sure Artemis-2 does not launch beforehand, a delay of only a matter of weeks.
Be prepared for political fireworks come March.
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”If that isn’t a very precise description of SLS and Orion, I don’t know what is.”
SLS has been on budget and on schedule for years. Years ago it had some development issues that delayed first flight, but since then it has been hitting its milestones pretty much on target.
”…to identify any such programs that are more than 30 percent behind schedule based on the program’s acquisition baseline.”
That would be Starship. It was awarded a contract in 2021 with a schedule of making orbit in 2021, completing operational derivatives* for Starlink (Pez dispenser) and generic payload (chomper) deployment in 2021, developing tanker and fuel depot derivatives in 2022, landing an unmanned Starship on the moon in 2023, and performing the first manned landing in 2024. In fact, the entire rationale for giving SpaceX — and only SpaceX — the contract was that they were the only company who could meet that schedule.
None of that happened. 4-1/2 years later we are still waiting for Starship to make orbit. Six additional major derivatives still lie ahead after that. No one expects SpaceX to make even the 2028 date, or even come close to it.
With the EO reaffirming the 2028 goal and additional near-term landings after that, I don’t see either SLS or Orion going away anytime soon. I don’t see the Starship contract being cancelled either, BTW, just sidelined while work on an alternate is accelerated.
I expect that extra $50 billion will be used for 1) an alternate lander to make 2028 (which will become 2030 when all is said and done), 2) an alternate (commercial) capsule for Orion, 3) an alternate launch architecture involving depots and distributed launch allowing SLS to be phased out after 2030, 4) surface habitats and pressurized rovers, and 5) space nuclear power.
I think everyone who expects everything non-SpaceX to be cancelled and everything just handed over to SpaceX are going to be very disappointed. Again.
* Not technically part of the HLS contract but part of SpaceX’s development plan.
To mkent
I think Starship is doing pretty good. They are getting better, and better with launches. No landings, and reuse yet. But that will come. And after that, going from Earth, to LEO, it will be able to launch about three times a day, 20 times a week, 1,000 times a year.
SLS could never do that.
SLS on schdule? The Artemis I launch was supposed to occur in 2018 and did not happen until 2022. I would not call that on schedule. The Artemis II mission is nearly 5 years behind its original 2021 launch date. According to Space.com in 2020 the program was then 33% off the schedule and budget goals originally given to Congress. It would appear that RZ is correct in his assumption of what the target program is.
mkent, what alternate universe are you getting your information from or are you just a SpaceX hater?
BillB: mkent is correct on schedule and budget for SLS, if you make believe the schedule and numbers begin around 2021. Since then SLS has been holding its own somewhat as planned.
The problem is that the schedule and numbers don’t begin in 2021, as you most correctly note.
For a more complete accounting, see my 2017 policy paper, Capitalism in Space. (it’s a free download). At that time SLS and Orion were already insanely over budget and behind schedule, and little in the ensuing years has changed that.
Finally, note that the Trump executive order is very specific: It references the “baseline” budget and schedule. In other words, use the original promised numbers. Under that approach, SLS and Orion do not fare well at all.
This Just in. (Satire warning)
Like the Kennedy Center, President Trump has announced that the Kennedy Space Center will henceforth be know as the “Trump
Space Center,” and Starship will be renamed the “Trump Space Scepter.” Likewise, the Gulf of America, formerly known as the Gulf of Mexico, will now be called the Gulf of Trump.
Poor Susie Wiles *tries,* but apparently there is only so much that she can do. More seriously, there is the danger that all of the good that has been done — including what is discussed above — since last year’s election may be undone by the arrogance and tone deafness of a certain pig-headed Irishman who apparently does not care how many potential allies and supporters he alienates.
Quos deus vult perdere, prius dementat.
Ronald Reagan was an Irishman, too, but you could disagree with him and still like him. Likewise, he had a keen sense of humor, even after he had been shot. For me, the best analogy is that Trump is essentially the Batman elevated to a national level, doing the unpleasant but necessary things to clean up Gotham Nation that nobody else would dare to do* — the hero that we need, but not necessarily the one that we would want.
*And many of the Democrats seem to be every bit as twisted and evil as the Joker.
Okay, stipulate that SLS/Orion are now on a reasonable schedule. (Dismiss previous development history from your mind; it’s just water under the bridge, and besides, it’s painful.) What a New and Improved schedule it is! Three years between A1 and A2 (really sort of an unfair swipe, given they had to spend considerable time justifying putting the A2 crew on the same TPS that took a bit of a beatdown on A1) then a two-year wait for A3 BUT WE CAN BLAME SPACEX FOR THAT ONE, THE SLACKERS. Every one of those orange beauties tossed to the ocean floor or otherwise trashed, at $4.2B a pop. Sweet. What an amazing display of what our tax dollars can accomplish in the hands of our technocratic betters. Rejoice Therefore!
mkent,
An imaginative comment – particularly the parts about Starship’s alleged “schedule.”
“No one expects SpaceX to make even the 2028 date, or even come close to it.”
Well, I, for one, expect a manned Moon mission via HLS Starship by 2028. More to the point, so does SpaceX. SpaceX now has its own quite urgent reason to get to the Moon – AI data centers in space – and on a scale that makes the entire Artemis project look like a Boy Scout troop’s summer camp-out compared to the D-Day landings at Normandy.
And don’t waste any further time composing your wish list for that $50 billion mentioned in the EO. That isn’t a commitment to new government spending, it’s a goal for new private-sector space investment. The SpaceX IPO next year should cover well over half of that goal in one fell swoop.
Robert Zimmerman,
I hope Trump and Isaacman interpret those 30% margin numbers exactly as you surmise. SLS and Orion deserve to die with all deliberate speed. If this EO proves to be the axe needed to kill them, then good for Trump.
I didn’t put this item on my “greatest hits of the new EO” list in the other comment thread because, frankly, the things I did put there are, IMHO, of considerably more importance than the inevitable fate of SLS-Orion. I have long-since ceased to care very much about SLS-Orion or the details of the exact paths both will soon enough take to the graveyard. My remaining concerns anent those two unlovely lumps of metal now revolve entirely around no NASA astronauts dying unnecessarily aboard what Casey Handmer memorably – and correctly – labeled recently as “flaming garbage.”
The recent revelations regarding SpaceX’s plans for the Moon anent the goal of developing a massive infrastructure of AI data centers in space at flank speed now seems all but certain to guarantee both massive settlement and industrialization of that body over the long term with even the earliest aspects dwarfing the ambitions embodied in the Artemis program of record. SpaceX will do what is needful to address its goals and SLS-Orion will vanish of terminal irrelevance. The precise nature of that demise will be of interest mainly as entertainment, not because it will any longer have anything of consequence to do with America’s future in space.
Dick Eagleson wrote:
“My remaining concerns anent those two unlovely lumps of metal now revolve entirely around no NASA astronauts dying unnecessarily aboard what Casey Handmer memorably – and correctly – labeled recently as “flaming garbage.” ”
I’ll bet Trump is worried about that one as well. I know I am.
From the EO:
“…or unaligned with the priorities in this order, …”
I wonder if that includes science missions.
I wrote:
I wonder if that includes science missions.
I answer myself: probably not…not in this EO which seems to be oriented towards manned missions
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