Author: Robert Zimmerman

NASA has chosen the four shuttle engines that will be used to launch SLS on its first mission in 2021.

10:26 am

What a waste: NASA has chosen the four shuttle engines that will be used to launch SLS on its first mission in 2021.

All four engines were used multiple times on many shuttle missions. They will fly once on SLS, at a cost of many billions, and then end up destroyed when that giant rocket’s first stage falls into the ocean. Worse, no one has really defined what the goal of that first launch will be. It might merely be a test launch, with no humans on board.

To me, it would be wiser to put the engines into storage and wait until we have a new reusable capability that could take advantage of the reusable engineering of these engines. Throwing them away on a pork-barrel boondoggle like SLS seems so stupid.

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Using computer models and data collected in the past decade, some climate scientists now believe that a major Antarctica ice sheet is in the process of collapsing.

10:20 am

Using computer models and data collected in the past decade, some climate scientists now believe that a major Antarctica ice sheet is in the process of collapsing.

One team combined data on the recent retreat of the 182,000-square-kilometer Thwaites Glacier with a model of the glacier’s dynamics to forecast its future. In a paper published online today in Science, they report that in as few as 2 centuries Thwaites Glacier’s outermost edge will recede past an underwater ridge now stalling its retreat. Their modeling suggests that the glacier will then cascade into rapid collapse. The second team, writing in Geophysical Research Letters (GRL), describes recent radar mapping of West Antarctica’s glaciers and confirms that the 600-meter-deep ridge is the final obstacle before the bedrock underlying the glacier dips into a deep basin.

Because inland basins connect Thwaites Glacier to other major glaciers in the region, both research teams say its collapse would flood West Antarctica with seawater, prompting a near-complete loss of ice in the area. “The next stable state for the West Antarctic Ice Sheet might be no ice sheet at all,” says the Science paper’s lead author, glaciologist Ian Joughin of the University of Washington (UW), Seattle.

This result really falls under the category of the uncertainty of science. Though the data suggests a glacier that is part of the much larger West Antarctica ice sheet is melting, the prediction that the ice sheet itself will collapse sometime in the next two centuries is solely based on computer models that have all too often turned turned out to be wrong.

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Some scientists are now calling into question the BICEP2 results that confirmed the existence of inflation just after the Big Bang.

10:12 am

The uncertainty of science: Some scientists are now calling into question the BICEP2 results that confirmed the existence of inflation just after the Big Bang.

The biggest discovery in cosmology in a decade could turn out to be an experimental artifact—at least according to an Internet rumor. The team that reported the discovery is sticking by its work, however.

Eight weeks ago, researchers working with a specialized telescope at the South Pole reported the observation of pinwheel-like swirls in the polarization of the afterglow of the big bang, or cosmic microwave background (CMB). Those swirls are traces of gravitational waves rippling through the fabric of spacetime a sliver of a second after the big bang, argue researchers working with the Background Imaging of Cosmic Extragalactic Polarization 2 (BICEP2) telescope. Such waves fulfilled a prediction of a wild theory called inflation, which says that in the first 10-32 seconds, the universe underwent a mind-boggling exponential growth spurt. Many scientists hailed the result as a “smoking gun” for inflation.

However, scientists cautioned that the result would have to be scrutinized thoroughly. And now a potential problem with the BICEP analysis has emerged, says Adam Falkowski, a theoretical particle physicist at the Laboratory of Theoretical Physics of Orsay in France and author of the Résonaances blog. The BICEP researchers mapped the polarization of the CMB across a patch of sky measuring 15° by 60°. To study the CMB signal, however, they first had to subtract the “foreground” of microwaves generated by dust within our galaxy, and the BICEP team may have done that incorrectly, Falkowski reports on his blog today.

When the BICEP2 result was announced, the media went crazy over it. I however didn’t even post anything about it, as I know from experience that cosmological results such as this are very tentative and require confirmation. Too often, they turn out to be false results, with the scientists in charge fooled by the uncertain nature of their data.

The results from BICEP2 might still hold up. We need to wait a bit longer to find out.

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Russia fights back

9:50 am

Much has been made about the sanctions the Obama administration has imposed on any cooperation with Russia due to the situation in Ukraine and how those sanctions might damage the commercial and manned space efforts of the United States.

So far, all evidence has suggested that the sanctions have little teeth. The Obama administration exempted ISS from the sanctions. It also appears to be allowing the shipment of all commercial satellites to Russia for launch. Even a court injunction against using Russia rocket engines in U.S. military launches was lifted when the Obama administration asked the judge to do so.

The Russians now have responded. Why do I take their response more seriously?
» Read more

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The new American fascism.

8:41 am

The new American fascism.

Another day, another witch hunt — this time in duplicate. “Twin brothers David and Jason Benham,” CNN reports, “have lost their opportunity to host their own HGTV show.” On Tuesday, the pair was gearing up for their new role; by sundown the next day, the network had announced tersely that it had “decided not to move forward with the Benham Brothers’ series.” And that, as they say, was that.

Their real crime:

Per Right Wing Watch’s rather hysterical indictment, the brothers’ main crimes against humanity are to have “led a prayer rally,” talked a few times on the radio, written a few articles, and — shock! — been involved in “protests outside of abortion clinics” and “at a 2009 LGBT event.” In other words, to have taken to the public square and to have spoken — an activity free societies have traditionally tended to cherish.

The persecution shall continue until we are all free!

And then there’s this: A football player has been fined and suspended for posting tweets critical of a newly drafted homosexual football player.

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A news story today reports that cracks have been discovered in the wings of WhiteKnightTwo.

8:27 am

More problems for Virgin Galactic: A news story today reports that cracks have been discovered in the wings of WhiteKnightTwo.

Sources tell me the cracks are along the spars that run the length of the wings. Specifically, they are located where the spars connect with the fuselage. My sources tell me the cracks have caused quite a bit of concern among the engineers at Virgin and Scaled. One particularly worrisome aspect is that nobody knows why or when they occurred.

I’m told there is some comfort in the repairs being made based on previous Scaled experience in patching composites. However, since the cause of the cracks is uncertain and WhiteKnightTwo is unique in terms of its size and the stresses placed on it by SpaceShipTwo, the engineers are in uncharted territory. They don’t know if they have addressed the root cause, or whether the problem will reoccur.

If this story turns out to be trie, it will likely be a disaster for Virgin Galactic. Not only can they not yet fly SpaceShipTwo because of engine issues, the mother ship that puts the spacecraft into the air can’t fly either.

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Does the auction sale of an Excalibur Almaz capsule signal the end of this manned space commercial company?

9:23 am

Does the auction sale of an Excalibur Almaz capsule signal the end of this manned space commercial company?

It certainly looks that way, which is tragic in that the company had a very smart and viable idea: Use already built Soviet-era manned space equipment to launch a space hotel and provide a ferry to it for a relatively low cost. The development was already done and the hardware already built. All they had to do is refurbish and update things.

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Ground tests of SpaceShipTwo’s engines continue.

9:20 am

Ground tests of SpaceShipTwo’s engines continue.

No flight tests have occurred in four months, however, which suggests that they have decided to abandon their first engine design and are now doing these new ground tests to prove the reliability of the new engine before proceeding to flight tests. The lack of flight tests also suggests that Richard Branson’s most recent announcement that he will definitely fly as a passenger this year is most likely hogwash.

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The trip of what is essentially a circuit breaker on ISS has reduced the station’s power by about 12.5%.

9:02 am

The trip of what is essentially a circuit breaker on ISS has reduced the station’s power by about 12.5%.

The cause and solution has not yet been isolated. The loss of power at this point is not critical, and has not effected any experiments or the safety of the crew.

The article itself gives a very detailed and informative outline of the system and what has happened, though you have to spend the time to wade through the alphabet soup of NASA terminology — SSU, SAWs, VDC, DCSUs, MBSUs, DDCUs, POR — that NASA uses.

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The 2013 Walter Duranty Prize for mendacious journalism was announced on Monday.

9:39 am

The 2013 Walter Duranty Prize for mendacious journalism was announced on Monday.

This prize – in honor (or, more accurately, dishonor) of Walter Duranty, the New York Times Moscow correspondent during the 1920s and 1930s – was first given in 2011 by PJ Media and The New Criterion. For various reasons of sloth and bureaucracy, it has taken the organizations a year and a half to award a second round, but the prize will now be put on an annual basis.

A second award – The Rather (after Dan Rather) — for lifetime achievement in mendacious journalism was initiated this year.

Sadly, the number of qualified candidates far exceeded the number of prizes.

In related news: “A suspected arms dealer, an allegedly crooked mayor dealing in White House access, and a cowardly attorney general walk into a bar. Even if it’s the bar right next door to The Washington Post, would they get any coverage? If they’re Democrats, the answer is probably no.”

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Building a scale model of the International Space Station — using matchsticks!

9:12 am

Building a scale model of the International Space Station — using matchsticks!

Recently completed by Acton, the wooden ISS is as impressive in size as it is in detail. Comprised of 282,000 matchsticks, the 1/26 scale model required 8 gal (30 L) of glue and took roughly 1,950 hours to complete. Whereas the actual ISS measures out at 108.5 m (356 ft) wide and 72.8 m (239 ft) long, Acton’s scaled down version measures out at an impressive 4.1 m (13.5 ft) and 2.8 m (9.2 ft) wide. Solar arrays, trusses, communication components, and even the Space Shuttle Atlantis, are all there in intricate detail.

With pictures.

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Fact checking Elon Musk’s statements about his company’s efforts to reuse the Falcon 9 first stage reminds us of some space history and one of Musk’s chief competitors.

9:06 am

Fact checking Elon Musk’s statements about his company’s efforts to reuse the Falcon 9 first stage reminds us of some space history and one of Musk’s chief competitors.

The bottom line: Bringing the first stage back to Earth safely and vertically is doable, and has been done before.

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In response to the Obama administration’s request a judge has lifted her injunction against the purchase of Russian rocket engines for the Atlas 5 rocket.

7:27 pm

In response to the Obama administration’s request a judge has lifted her injunction against the purchase of Russian rocket engines for the Atlas 5 rocket.

More here. It appears that, at least for the moment, the Atlas 5 rocket will be allowed to buy these engines. Whether the Russians will continue to allow them to buy them however remains an open question, especially if things in the Ukraine get worse.

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Less than 24 hours after the House held Lois Lerner in contempt, the IRS has finally agreed to turn over all her emails to House investigators.

2:31 pm

Less than 24 hours after the House held Lois Lerner in contempt, the IRS has finally agreed to turn over all her emails to House investigators.

Republican lawmakers have been demanding the documents for months and, in March, Oversight Committee chairman Darrell Issa threatened to hold IRS commissioner John Koskinen in contempt if he did not produce the e-mails requested by the committee. Koskinen had told lawmakers it might take years to produce them. [emphasis mine]

Years, eh? That’s suddenly changed, hasn’t it?

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How to turn an American spacecraft ferrying astronauts to ISS serve as a lifeboat as well.

9:07 am

How to turn an American spacecraft ferrying astronauts to ISS serve as a lifeboat as well.

A very interesting read, as it outlines the specific technical problems faced by engineers that one wouldn’t normally consider. The capsule has to be able to remain functional and reliable after months in orbit, but it also has to become functional at a moment’s notice, should an emergency happen.

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The creation in the lab of an as yet unnamed superheavy element adds weight to the theory that there might exist even heavier elements that are stable in nature.

8:59 am

The creation in the lab of an as yet unnamed superheavy element adds weight to the theory that there might exist even heavier elements that are stable in nature.

The scientists did not observe element 117 directly. Instead, they searched for its daughter products after it radioactively decayed by emitting alpha particles—helium nuclei with two protons and two neutrons. “The heavy nuclei makes an alpha decay to produce element 115, and this also decays by alpha decay,” says Jadambaa Khuyagbaatar of GSI, lead author of a paper reporting the results published on 1 May in Physical Review Letters.

After a few more steps in this decay chain, one of the nuclei produced is the isotope lawrencium 266—a nucleus with 103 protons and 163 neutrons that had never been seen before. Previously known isotopes of lawrencium have fewer neutrons, and are less stable. This novel species, however, has an astonishingly long half-life of 11 hours, making it one of the longest-lived superheavy isotopes known to date. “Perhaps we are at the shore of the island of stability,” Düllmann says.

If these superheavy elements could be created, they would be the stuff of science fiction. They might have properties that we would find extremely useful.

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The IRS audited 10 percent of all Tea Party donors, a rate much higher than for average Americans.

9:52 pm

Working for the Democratic Party: The IRS audited 10 percent of all Tea Party donors, a rate much higher than for average Americans.

Republicans said 24 conservative groups were asked for their donor lists. The IRS initially told Congress that those lists were destroyed, but when they went through their files they discovered three lists that weren’t destroyed.

Rep. Dave Camp, Michigan Republican and chairman of the House Ways and Means Committee, asked the IRS to review the names on those lists to see whether any had been audited. The IRS reported back that 10 percent were audited — substantially higher than the average rate of 1 percent of average Americans who are audited each year.

In other words, the IRS acted as an agent of the Democratic Party to harass and strike fear into their opponents.

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According to a GAO report, the sequester cuts that were going to destroy civilization as we know it resulted in exactly one layoff across the entire federal government.

11:48 am

According to a GAO report, the sequester cuts that were going to destroy civilization as we know it resulted in exactly one layoff across the entire federal government.

That is not a typo. Only one person total was laid off to meet the mandated cuts imposed by sequestration. Most agencies froze hiring or imposed furloughs, though even the number of furloughs was less than predicted.

Remember this fact the next time a politician screams dire warnings about any cuts in the federal budget.

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