New simulations suggest that the magnitude of tsunamis predicted to hit Japan have previously been underestimated.

New simulations suggest that the magnitude of tsunamis predicted to hit Japan have been significantly underestimated.

The difficulty here is that these predicted giant tsunamis are still expected to be very rare events. It is thus unclear what is more practical, to build things at great cost so that they can survive these rare events, or to live with the risk and rebuild each time after disaster strikes.

Coming and going

There are really only two important stories today concerning space exploration. The story that is getting the most coverage is the big news that the space shuttle Discovery is making its last flight, flying over Washington, DC, as it is delivered to the Smithsonian for permanent display.

Of these stories, only Irene Klotz of Discovery News seems to really get it. This is not an event to celebrate or get excited about. It is the end of an American achievement, brought to a close probably three to five years prematurely so that the United States now cannot even send its own astronauts to its own space station.

The other news, actually far more important, has gotten far less coverage, and includes three different stories all really about the same thing.
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The trial of an ex-JPL computer specialist who claims he was fired for his Christian beliefs ended today.

The trial of an ex-JPL computer specialist who claims he was fired for his Christian beliefs ended today.

Closing arguments ended Monday after a five-week trial. The case will be decided by Superior Court Judge Ernest Hiroshige, who must first review written arguments from both sides and could take months before announcing a verdict. Both sides agreed to forgo a jury.

More video proof from Project Veritas that voter fraud in Washington DC is easy to do.

More video proof from Project Veritas that voter fraud in Washington DC is easy to do.

His new video shows Project Veritas going into poll locations in DC on April 3, being offered ballots for Ben Jealous, President & CEO of the NAACP; one Bill Maher; and David Brock (Project Veritas says they could not verify whether the David Brock for which they were offered a ballot was the same David Brock as the Media Matters president). Hilariously, Project Veritas also shows that you can’t get into Media Matters without showing ID. The video also depicts Project Veritas going to a polling place and asking about Alicia Menendez, daughter of New Jersey Senator Robert Menendez (D) and political commentator on MSNBC; a poll worker asks to see ID, preventing Project Veritas from being offered Menendez’s ballot.

The failure to obtain a ballot for Menendez was directly because ID was required, which is the whole point that Project Veritas is trying to make.

And of course, the Democratically controlled Board of Elections in DC is right on the case, announcing that it has started an investigation of Project Veritas.

Researchers have found that they cannot reproduce the results of 89 percent of 53 “landmark” cancer research papers.

More bad news for peer-reviewed science: Researchers have found that they cannot reproduce the results for almost ninety percent of the fifty-three “landmark” cancer research papers they reviewed.

It is worse than you think. Consider this quote:

Part way through his project to reproduce promising studies, Begley met for breakfast at a cancer conference with the lead scientist of one of the problematic studies. “We went through the paper line by line, figure by figure,” said Begley. “I explained that we re-did their experiment 50 times and never got their result. He said they’d done it six times and got this result once, but put it in the paper because it made the best story. It’s very disillusioning.”

ULA, NASA’s prime contractor for operating the space shuttle, on Friday laid off nine percent of its work force.

USA, NASA’s prime contractor for operating the space shuttle, on Friday laid off nine percent of its work force.

I honestly have to ask: why did it take so long? The last shuttle flight was in July of last year. It couldn’t possibly have required that many people to prepare these spacecraft for display in museums.

Update: Typo corrected. Thank you Erik.

Some wisdom from Pravda: “Humans explore space only for profit.”

Some wisdom from Pravda: “Humans explore space only for profit.”

And then there’s this, from the U.N., not surprisingly published at MSNBC: “Private property in outer space: The other side of the argument.” To quote the U.N. expert: “More rules are needed, but I am also of the opinion that you do not need to create property rights [in space].”

It is a sad world when support for capitalism, private property rights, and competition comes from Pravda, while in the U.S. such ideas get slapped down.

Satellite photos have revealed that there are twice as many emperor penguins in Antarctica than scientists had predicted.

The uncertainty of science: Satellite photos have revealed that there are twice as many emperor penguins in Antarctica than scientists had predicted.

Not surprising in this era of spin-generated science, every article I’ve seen on this story (here’s another) has felt obliged to say how this news means the poor penguins will start off stronger when global warming arrives to decimate their population. However, wasn’t global warming already happening? And wasn’t that warming supposed to have decimated their population already?

The truth is we really don’t know. This new data could actually mean that emperor penguins like global warming. It could suggest that global warming hasn’t started yet. It could even be evidence that the climate isn’t warming at all.

But no, let’s just spin it in one direction: global warming is happening, and it will kill penguins. No matter how many penguins we find.

Europe’s primary Earth-observation satellite has gone silent.

Europe’s primary Earth-observation satellite, Envisat, has gone silent.

Launched in 2002, the satellite is billed as the most sophisticated environmental monitor in orbit, with ten instruments providing streams of valuable data on everything from ozone, clouds and greenhouse gases to land-use trends and sea-surface temperatures — data that have figured in more than 2,000 scientific publications, ESA says. Over the years, Envisat has also offered a unique vantage point on major environmental disasters such as the December 2004 earthquake and tsunami in southeast Asia and the Deepwater Horizon oil spill in the Gulf of Mexico in 2010. Now, scientists fear that the satellite’s decade-long run has come to an abrupt end.

Problems began on 8 April when the satellite’s signal cut out as it was passing over a ground station in Sweden. ESA has been working with a team of scientists and engineers to diagnose the problem and to re-establish contact, but the outlook remains unclear.

An up and down Sun, for real this time

Though I am a bit late in covering this story (due to moving, unpacking, Passover, and an unexpected visit to the dentist), NOAA’s Space Weather Prediction Center on April 9 released its monthly update of the ongoing sunspot cycle of the Sun. The most recent graph is below the fold.

In order to understand the context of this new graph, however, it is necessary to make a correction and clarification.
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European subsidies have put Arianespace in the black.

European subsidies have put Arianespace in the black for 2011 and 2012.

The key quote however is this:

But ESA governments have made clear they are not happy having to cover losses, especially since the workhorse Ariane 5 rocket, introduced in the mid-1990s, is well past its teething stage and has conducted 47 consecutive launch successes. Its last failure was in late 2002.

Arianespace has dominated the commercial launch market in recent years, yet can’t make a profit. In this case, however, I suspect that if the company lost its subsides it would somehow find a way to finally reduce its budget.

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