Scroll down to read this post.

 

Please consider supporting my work here at Behind the Black. I keep the website clean from pop-ups and annoying demands. Instead, I depend entirely on my readers to support me. Though this means I am sacrificing some income, it also means that I remain entirely independent from outside pressure. By depending solely on donations and subscriptions from my readers, no one can threaten me with censorship. You don't like what I write, you can simply go elsewhere.

 

You can support me either by giving a one-time contribution or a regular subscription. There are five ways of doing so:

 

1. Zelle: This is the only internet method that charges no fees. All you have to do is use the Zelle link at your internet bank and give my name and email address (zimmerman at nasw dot org). What you donate is what I get.

 

2. Patreon: Go to my website there and pick one of five monthly subscription amounts, or by making a one-time donation.
 

3. A Paypal Donation:

4. A Paypal subscription:


5. Donate by check, payable to Robert Zimmerman and mailed to
 
Behind The Black
c/o Robert Zimmerman
P.O.Box 1262
Cortaro, AZ 85652

 

You can also support me by buying one of my books, as noted in the boxes interspersed throughout the webpage or shown in the menu above. And if you buy the books through the ebookit links, I get a larger cut and I get it sooner.


The Sun shows a bit of life

It is that time again, buckos! Yesterday NOAA released its monthly update of the Sun’s sunspot cycle, covering the period of April 2013. As I have done every month for the past three years, I have posted this latest graph, with annotations to give it context, below the fold.

For the second month in a row the Sun’s sunspot output increased. The result is that April 2013 saw the most sunspot activity in more than a year, since December 2011.


April Solar Cycle graph

To give the data some context, I have added the curves as predicted by the solar science community. The green curves in the graph show the communities two original predictions from April 2007, with half the scientists predicting a very strong maximum and half predicting a weak one. The red curve is their revised May 2009 prediction.

Despite this increase in activity, sunspot production is still way below predicted levels. However, the increase does suggest that the recent prediction by some solar scientists that we might see a second and final peak to the solar maximum later this year might turn out to be right. Then again, that prediction isn’t based on any theoretical understanding of the Sun. It merely notes that double peaks have occurred in the past, and might occur again in the future. The Sun could just as well decide it has had enough of sunspots, and proceed directly to its next minimum. We shall see.

Meanwhile, for the third month in a row the solar scientists at the Marshall Space Flight center did not change their prediction for the solar maximum, the first time they have held to a prediction for this long since the fall of 2011. From September 2011 through the beginning of 2013, they would routinely revise their prediction on a monthly basis, coming up with predicted sunspot numbers for the solar maximum ranging from 59 to 99.

The Marshall scientists do not archive their predictions. Instead, they simply change their webpage each time they change the prediction. Thus, the only reason we know that these predictions have changed so often is because I have been tracking them as they happen. Below is a screen capture of their webpage from last month.

Marshall April prediction for solar maximum

This screen capture is from April 26, 2013, and is identical to their present prediction.

I have highlighted in yellow two sentences from their webpage because they inadvertently illustrate just how much guesswork lies behind these predictions. In the first paragraph they note that we are now four years into this solar cycle, the start date being when solar minimum actually occurred. In the next paragraph they state that their prediction should become fairly reliable “3 years after the minimum” occurs. The problem is that for the past year and a half, when they are supposed to have been able to reliably predict the upcoming maximum, they were instead changing their prediction monthly with a wide range of numbers.

I wonder if they have been reading their own webpage. Likely not. When they finally do, however, and see this absurd contradiction, I expect them to quickly change it and dump it down the memory hole. Thus, my screen capture now for all to see.

Genesis cover

On Christmas Eve 1968 three Americans became the first humans to visit another world. What they did to celebrate was unexpected and profound, and will be remembered throughout all human history. Genesis: the Story of Apollo 8, Robert Zimmerman's classic history of humanity's first journey to another world, tells that story, and it is now available as both an ebook and an audiobook, both with a foreword by Valerie Anders and a new introduction by Robert Zimmerman.

 
The ebook is available everywhere for $5.99 (before discount) at amazon, or direct from my ebook publisher, ebookit. If you buy it from ebookit you don't support the big tech companies and the author gets a bigger cut much sooner.


The audiobook is also available at all these vendors, and is also free with a 30-day trial membership to Audible.
 

"Not simply about one mission, [Genesis] is also the history of America's quest for the moon... Zimmerman has done a masterful job of tying disparate events together into a solid account of one of America's greatest human triumphs."--San Antonio Express-News

2 comments

  • Thomas

    ‘FAIRLY reliable’

  • D. K. Williams

    Obviously, manmade CO2 emissions are causing the sun to heat up. They are also causing humans to have increased electric dreams and prefer the color red. Paradoxically, such emissions result in a cooling of the eyeballs.

Readers: the rules for commenting!

 

No registration is required. I welcome all opinions, even those that strongly criticize my commentary.

 

However, name-calling and obscenities will not be tolerated. First time offenders who are new to the site will be warned. Second time offenders or first time offenders who have been here awhile will be suspended for a week. After that, I will ban you. Period.

 

Note also that first time commenters as well as any comment with more than one link will be placed in moderation for my approval. Be patient, I will get to it.

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *