The solar scientists change their prediction again
Today, with little fanfare, the solar scientists at the Marshall Space Flight Center adjusted slightly downward their prediction for the upcoming solar maximum, from a sunspot number of 73 down to 72. This was the fourth month in a row that they have revised their prediction.
The Marshall scientists do not archive their predictions, which I suspect is a convenient way of preventing people from noticing how much they change them. I however like to archive these revisions. Below is a full list of their changes during the past two years:
- January 2011: They predicted a maximum sunspot number of 59 occurring in July 2013.
- September 2011: They raised their prediction to 70, moving it forward to May 2013.
- October 2011: They upped it again, to 77, moving forward to April 2013.
- November 2011: They upped it again, to 89, moving it back to May 2013.
- December 2011: They upped it again, to 99, moving it forward to February 2013.
- January 2012: They revised it down slightly, to 96, still for February 2013.
- Early February 2012: They kept the number at 96, but moved the maximum back to late 2013.
- Mid February 2012: They revised the number down to 63, with the peak set for early 2013.
- March 2012: They revised the number up to 70.
- March 2012: They revised the number down to 59, predicting the peak to arrive in the spring of 2013
- April 2012: They revised the number to 60, with the peak in spring 2013.
- May 2012: They revised the number up to 61.
- June 2012: The maximum sunspot number was now predicted at 60.
- September 2012: They made a big revision, raising the prediction up to 76 while delaying the peak to the fall of 2013.
- October: 2012: They lowered their prediction down to 75.
- November 2012: They again lowered the prediction, down to 73.
- December 2012: They lowered the prediction again, to 72.
As one of my regular readers commented, “Not much of a prediction if it changes every month.” I should also note that these solar scientists claim on their webpage that
Predicting the behavior of a sunspot cycle is fairly reliable once the cycle is well underway (about 3 years after the minimum in sunspot number occurs).
Since the actual solar minimum occurred in early 2009, we are now almost four years past that minimum. Shouldn’t their prediction by now be settling onto a single number instead of changing from month-to-month?
The support of my readers through the years has given me the freedom and ability to analyze objectively the ongoing renaissance in space, as well as the cultural changes -- for good or ill -- that are happening across America. Four years ago, just before the 2020 election I wrote that Joe Biden's mental health was suspect. Only in this year has the propaganda mainstream media decided to recognize that basic fact.
Fourteen years ago I wrote that SLS and Orion were a bad ideas, a waste of money, would be years behind schedule, and better replaced by commercial private enterprise. Even today NASA and Congress refuse to recognize this reality.
In 2020 when the world panicked over COVID I wrote that the panic was unnecessary, that the virus was apparently simply a variation of the flu, that masks were not simply pointless but if worn incorrectly were a health threat, that the lockdowns were a disaster and did nothing to stop the spread of COVID. Only in the past year have some of our so-called experts in the health field have begun to recognize these facts.
Your help allows me to do this kind of intelligent analysis. I take no advertising or sponsors, so my reporting isn't influenced by donations by established space or drug companies. Instead, I rely entirely on donations and subscriptions from my readers, which gives me the freedom to write what I think, unencumbered by outside influences.
Please consider supporting my work here at Behind the Black.
You can support me either by giving a one-time contribution or a regular subscription. There are five ways of doing so:
1. Zelle: This is the only internet method that charges no fees. All you have to do is use the Zelle link at your internet bank and give my name and email address (zimmerman at nasw dot org). What you donate is what I get.
2. Patreon: Go to my website there and pick one of five monthly subscription amounts, or by making a one-time donation.
3. A Paypal Donation:
5. Donate by check, payable to Robert Zimmerman and mailed to
Behind The Black
c/o Robert Zimmerman
P.O.Box 1262
Cortaro, AZ 85652
You can also support me by buying one of my books, as noted in the boxes interspersed throughout the webpage or shown in the menu above. And if you buy the books through the ebookit links, I get a larger cut and I get it sooner.
Wow, this cycle is the smallest since 1906.