China delays return of Shenzhou 20 crew due to possible capsule damage from “space debris”
Shenzhou-16 after undocking in 2023. Click for source.
In a very brief statement today by China’s state-run press, it announced the planned return on November 6, 2025 of the Shenzhou-20 crew that has just completed their six month mission on the Tiangong-3 space station has been delayed indefinitely due to “a suspected impact from tiny space debris” on their Shenzhou capsule.
According to the statement “impact analysis and risk assessment are under way.”
A new crew arrived at the station on October 31, 2025 on the Shenzhou 21-capsule, and after a few days transition were to take over operations while the crew of Shenzhou-20 returned home.
We do not know the extent of the damage or even when it was first detected. Depending on the damage, China has several options. First, after review it could decide to return the crew on Shenzhou-20.
Second, it could decide that a fresh replacement capsule needs to be launched. If so, the old crew’s mission might be extended for a few months, as happened to a Soyuz crew on ISS in 2023 because of a leaking coolant system. First Russia launched a new empty capsule to ISS, and then the damaged capsule returned unoccupied. That way a lifeboat was always docked for that stranded crew.
It might also be possible to patch the damage, depending on its size and location.
In every case, the situation should not be critical. I am assuming the station is well stocked at this time, so that a crew of six instead of three could manage there for about three months. I am also assuming China has more Shenzhou capsules in the pipeline and can prepare a new one relatively quickly. Finally, I am also assuming China’s Shenzhou capsules can dock autonomously, as do their unmanned Tianzhou freighters.
And then again, if any of my assumptions are wrong, this situation could become more serious.
On Christmas Eve 1968 three Americans became the first humans to visit another world. What they did to celebrate was unexpected and profound, and will be remembered throughout all human history. Genesis: the Story of Apollo 8, Robert Zimmerman's classic history of humanity's first journey to another world, tells that story, and it is now available as both an ebook and an audiobook, both with a foreword by Valerie Anders and a new introduction by Robert Zimmerman.
The print edition can be purchased at Amazon or from any other book seller. If you want an autographed copy the price is $60 for the hardback and $45 for the paperback, plus $8 shipping for each. Go here for purchasing details. The ebook is available everywhere for $5.99 (before discount) at amazon, or direct from my ebook publisher, ebookit. If you buy it from ebookit you don't support the big tech companies and the author gets a bigger cut much sooner.
The audiobook is also available at all these vendors, and is also free with a 30-day trial membership to Audible.
"Not simply about one mission, [Genesis] is also the history of America's quest for the moon... Zimmerman has done a masterful job of tying disparate events together into a solid account of one of America's greatest human triumphs."--San Antonio Express-News
Shenzhou-16 after undocking in 2023. Click for source.
In a very brief statement today by China’s state-run press, it announced the planned return on November 6, 2025 of the Shenzhou-20 crew that has just completed their six month mission on the Tiangong-3 space station has been delayed indefinitely due to “a suspected impact from tiny space debris” on their Shenzhou capsule.
According to the statement “impact analysis and risk assessment are under way.”
A new crew arrived at the station on October 31, 2025 on the Shenzhou 21-capsule, and after a few days transition were to take over operations while the crew of Shenzhou-20 returned home.
We do not know the extent of the damage or even when it was first detected. Depending on the damage, China has several options. First, after review it could decide to return the crew on Shenzhou-20.
Second, it could decide that a fresh replacement capsule needs to be launched. If so, the old crew’s mission might be extended for a few months, as happened to a Soyuz crew on ISS in 2023 because of a leaking coolant system. First Russia launched a new empty capsule to ISS, and then the damaged capsule returned unoccupied. That way a lifeboat was always docked for that stranded crew.
It might also be possible to patch the damage, depending on its size and location.
In every case, the situation should not be critical. I am assuming the station is well stocked at this time, so that a crew of six instead of three could manage there for about three months. I am also assuming China has more Shenzhou capsules in the pipeline and can prepare a new one relatively quickly. Finally, I am also assuming China’s Shenzhou capsules can dock autonomously, as do their unmanned Tianzhou freighters.
And then again, if any of my assumptions are wrong, this situation could become more serious.
On Christmas Eve 1968 three Americans became the first humans to visit another world. What they did to celebrate was unexpected and profound, and will be remembered throughout all human history. Genesis: the Story of Apollo 8, Robert Zimmerman's classic history of humanity's first journey to another world, tells that story, and it is now available as both an ebook and an audiobook, both with a foreword by Valerie Anders and a new introduction by Robert Zimmerman.
The print edition can be purchased at Amazon or from any other book seller. If you want an autographed copy the price is $60 for the hardback and $45 for the paperback, plus $8 shipping for each. Go here for purchasing details. The ebook is available everywhere for $5.99 (before discount) at amazon, or direct from my ebook publisher, ebookit. If you buy it from ebookit you don't support the big tech companies and the author gets a bigger cut much sooner.
The audiobook is also available at all these vendors, and is also free with a 30-day trial membership to Audible.
"Not simply about one mission, [Genesis] is also the history of America's quest for the moon... Zimmerman has done a masterful job of tying disparate events together into a solid account of one of America's greatest human triumphs."--San Antonio Express-News
“The 2007 Chinese ASAT test created the largest field of space debris in history, with more than 3,000 pieces of trackable size (golf ball size and larger) officially catalogued in the immediate aftermath, and an estimated 150,000 debris particles.”
Wikipedia
“a suspected impact from tiny space debris”
Karma, or irony?
Boeing might be getting a call: “How much heatshield do you *really* need?”
Bob,
Your assumptions are correct. Shenzhou can be flown from the ground and dock autonomously. Their standard procedure is to have another capsule ready during a launch and changeover. Shenzhou-22 is ready to go.
They do have enough food, especially after the recent resupply from their Tianzhou cargo ship.
Butch and Suni send their regards
Just in….the real culprit was duck sauce on the gyros….that is all.
CCP will make every effort to bring them home safely for execution
Ha!
I wish I had thought of that….I’m slipping….i smel burnt toast…
Good lord Space X could make a huge international embarrassment for China by Send up a Passenger dragon filled with cargo to fly close by the Station and send out a call.
“Anyone call an uber.” Uber can even pay and put an uber sign on the Dragon.
Then when they turn it down move over to eventually dock with the ISS.
Payback for stealing IP.
”Space X could make a huge international embarrassment for China by Send up a Passenger dragon filled with cargo to fly close by the Station and send out a call.”
How would that be an embarrassment to anyone other than SpaceX? Sending up a Dragon which can’t even dock to the Chinese space station certainly wouldn’t embarrass the Chinese.
”Then when they turn it down move over to eventually dock with the ISS.”
The only way a Dragon in the orbit of the Chinese space station is going to get to the ISS is by landing, being refurbished, and launching again on another Falcon 9. Why SpaceX would spend nine figures of their own money to embarrass themselves like that, I have no idea.
PS: Bob, your site is broken. Every comment now just gets a “Verifying” and circle dots that just spin round and round and never stop.
My Cloudflare auto fills now.
Oh I know China would turn it down.
Uber spends almost 100 million on advertising its own company and collects almost a billion from selling ads on its system.
They could afford it.
Shenzhou sure looks like its design was based on (stolen from?) Soyuz.
Andi: You are exactly right, nor is this a secret. The Chinese worked closely with the Russians in creating Shenzhou. Essentially, they borrowed the design and then upgraded it.
Jay,
I’m sure you’re right that there is no imminent danger of a Donner Party redux aboard Tiangong. Still, with a doubled crew, those roasted chicken wings are going to go twice as fast.