China’s 21-ton Long March 5B core stage to make uncontrolled re-entry
For the second time in two launches, the 21-ton core stage of China’s Long March 5B rocket is about to make uncontrolled re-entry, with a mass large enough that some part of it is certain to hit the ground.
Where and when the new Long March 5B stage will land is impossible to predict. The decay of its orbit will increase as atmospheric drag brings it down into more denser. The speed of this process depends on the size and density of the object and variables include atmospheric variations and fluctuations, which are themselves influenced by solar activity and other factors.
The high speed of the rocket body means it orbits the Earth roughly every 90 minutes and so a change of just a few minutes in reentry time results in reentry point thousands of kilometers away.
The Long March 5B core stage’s orbital inclination of 41.5 degrees means the rocket body passes a little farther north than New York, Madrid and Beijing and as far south as southern Chile and Wellington, New Zealand, and could make its reentry at any point within this area.
The previous core stage hit the Atlantic Ocean six days after launch in May 2020. Had it come down fifteen to thirty minutes earlier it would have come down on U.S. soil, possibly even on top of the New York metropolitan area.
China’s design for this rocket means that every single launch will result in similar potential disasters. They cannot restart the core stage’s engines after cut-off, so that once it has delivered its payload it is nothing more than a very big and uncontrolled brick that has to hit the ground somewhere.
This is a direct violation of the Outer Space Treaty, which China is a signatory. The treaty makes signatories liable for any damage from an uncontrolled re-entry, and requires them to take action to prevent such events from occurring.
China it appears doesn’t care much about the treaties it signs. The first time could be rung up to a mistake. The second time is intentional and tells us that this country will not honor any of its obligations anywhere else, if it decides it can get away with it.
Readers!
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For the second time in two launches, the 21-ton core stage of China’s Long March 5B rocket is about to make uncontrolled re-entry, with a mass large enough that some part of it is certain to hit the ground.
Where and when the new Long March 5B stage will land is impossible to predict. The decay of its orbit will increase as atmospheric drag brings it down into more denser. The speed of this process depends on the size and density of the object and variables include atmospheric variations and fluctuations, which are themselves influenced by solar activity and other factors.
The high speed of the rocket body means it orbits the Earth roughly every 90 minutes and so a change of just a few minutes in reentry time results in reentry point thousands of kilometers away.
The Long March 5B core stage’s orbital inclination of 41.5 degrees means the rocket body passes a little farther north than New York, Madrid and Beijing and as far south as southern Chile and Wellington, New Zealand, and could make its reentry at any point within this area.
The previous core stage hit the Atlantic Ocean six days after launch in May 2020. Had it come down fifteen to thirty minutes earlier it would have come down on U.S. soil, possibly even on top of the New York metropolitan area.
China’s design for this rocket means that every single launch will result in similar potential disasters. They cannot restart the core stage’s engines after cut-off, so that once it has delivered its payload it is nothing more than a very big and uncontrolled brick that has to hit the ground somewhere.
This is a direct violation of the Outer Space Treaty, which China is a signatory. The treaty makes signatories liable for any damage from an uncontrolled re-entry, and requires them to take action to prevent such events from occurring.
China it appears doesn’t care much about the treaties it signs. The first time could be rung up to a mistake. The second time is intentional and tells us that this country will not honor any of its obligations anywhere else, if it decides it can get away with it.
My July fund-raising campaign for 2021 has now ended. Thank you all for your donations and subscriptions. While this year’s campaign was not as spectacular as last year’s, it was the second best July campaign since I began this website.
And if you have not yet donated or subscribed, and you think what I write here is worth your support, you can still do so. I depend on this support to remain independent and free to write what I believe, without any pressure from others. Nor do I accept advertisements, or use oppressive social media companies like Google, Twitter, and Facebook. I depend wholly on the direct support of my readers.
If you choose to help, you can contribute via Patreon or PayPal. To use Patreon, go to my website there and pick one of five monthly subscription amounts, or by making a one-time donation. For PayPal click one of the following buttons:
If Patreon or Paypal don't work for you, you can support Behind The Black directly by sending your donation by check, payable to Robert Zimmerman, to
Behind The Black
c/o Robert Zimmerman
P.O.Box 1262
Cortaro, AZ 85652
China doesn’t give a rat’s —- about their own people being hit by falling rockets, why would they care about anyone else’s?
Isn’t this the rocket they plan to use mutiple times to launch their space station ?
There are roughly 90 million members of the chinese communist party, and they all need to go, all the way.
U-2
“Seconds”
https://youtu.be/XSl0W-NsL98
3:10
Rules for thee but not for mee. I don’t think that’s in the communist manifesto, but it should be. It applies to those people over there and over here.
No action to be taken under the Biden and Trudeau dictatorships.
Come on baby hit my land!!!!!
It might take years but I can get some cash out of them.
Why should China care about such inconveniences as ‘treaties’? They are the only superpower. The United States is done being United, and Russia, is, well, Russia. If a US President were to make a show of force, half of the country would accuse them of ‘warmongering’. A house divided, and all.
America still lives and is strong in the hearts of countrymen; we just need to find a physical location for it.
I’d like to see its re-entry…safely…
I wonder how China would react if a space tug sent it back home where it came from. China’s junk, Chinas yard!
Now playing, Space Junk by Devo.
humphreyrobot–
Devo
-the relevant tune-
https://youtu.be/nFCU_Ld9snU
2:14
“And now I’m mad about space junk,
I’m all burned out about space junk.
Walk and talk about space junk.
It smashed my baby’s head, space junk,
And now my sally’s dead, space junk….”
It has been EVIDENT for a LONG time that china has no integrity or honor – only SELF ! That is why they were so against PRESIDENT TRUMP’s reelection and most likely were a MAJOR player behind the corrupted election results! I keep thinking that with all the carnage by the IMPOTUS joe and harris junta that the vast majority of AMERICANS will look at the PROVEN VOTE FRAUD and DEMAND that PReSIDENT TRUMP is returned to office and everyone involved in the SCAM is prosecuted ! THEN and only then will we put an end to the stealth and corruption of chinese infiltration.
To be fair, I wouldn’t sign a treaty with the US. How’s that Ukrainian territorial integrity in exchange for giving up nukes treaty working out?
Soon?
Could we be a little more specific. Give maybe a range in the half life of gold fish or something?
Soon as in, this week, this month, or this millennial?
TSgt Ciz: See today’s update for more precise estimate, with May 10th as the centerpoint of the window.