COVID-19 vs other causes of death
Link here. The article freely admits that a new contagious disease is not the same as something like cancer and snakebites. It also notes the importance of putting this virus in its proper perspective, something unfortunately few are doing.
For example, about 4,700 deaths from the Wuhan flu have been recorded worldwide today. From all accounts we are also very near the peak of this epidemic. Compare this with other death rates:
According to the World Health Organisation’s (WHO) International Agency for Research on Cancer, there were 9.6 million deaths from cancer in 2018. That works out to around 26,000 deaths a day worldwide.
17.9 million people died from all cardiovascular diseases in 2016 according to the WHO—this works out as 49,000 a day.
Ischaemic heart disease or coronary heart disease specifically was the cause of 9.4 million deaths worldwide in 2016, 25,840 a day.
In 2016 the WHO estimated that 1.6 million people a year die from factors relating directly to diabetes. This is about 4,400 a day. [emphasis mine]
There’s more. Read it all. And remember also that of the 4,700 or so deaths from COVID-19 today, many occurred because the patient was already sick from some other illness and, based on the skewed reporting system being used, might really have died from those illnesses, not the Wuhan flu.
It is very clear that the fears pounded into us by the leftist academic community, working in league with the Washington bureaucracy, are way out of line. As the article concludes:
To sum up where we stand today, April 9: Based on the pretext that we must “limit the spread” of the Wuhan virus, the American economic boom of the past three years has been reversed in a matter of days, millions have lost their jobs, tens of thousands of small businesses have been shuttered and will probably never reopen, and three-quarters of the American population has been subjected to some form of house arrest by state, county and city governments.
All over the country people are being fined or arrested and jailed for violating suddenly imposed restrictions on their every movement and gathering, often with the aid of their neighbors, who turn them in to the police, following instructions on how to be a snitch. Attendance at religious services has been forbidden altogether or limited to ten people, even in vast cathedrals, while “permission” is granted to crowd supermarkets and convenience stores, buy booze, purchase cannabis and have pets groomed.
America’s almost instantaneous transformation into a police state is based on “models” that “predicted” upwards of 2 million deaths from the Wuhan virus without “mitigation” in the form of a preposterous attempt to quarantine 330 million people. And the people have obsequiously bowed to every ridiculous command.
We have been scammed. It is time that the scammers paid, not innocent Americans. It will however take innocent Americans to make that happen, at the voting booth in November.
On Christmas Eve 1968 three Americans became the first humans to visit another world. What they did to celebrate was unexpected and profound, and will be remembered throughout all human history. Genesis: the Story of Apollo 8, Robert Zimmerman's classic history of humanity's first journey to another world, tells that story, and it is now available as both an ebook and an audiobook, both with a foreword by Valerie Anders and a new introduction by Robert Zimmerman.
The ebook is available everywhere for $5.99 (before discount) at amazon, or direct from my ebook publisher, ebookit. If you buy it from ebookit you don't support the big tech companies and the author gets a bigger cut much sooner.
The audiobook is also available at all these vendors, and is also free with a 30-day trial membership to Audible.
"Not simply about one mission, [Genesis] is also the history of America's quest for the moon... Zimmerman has done a masterful job of tying disparate events together into a solid account of one of America's greatest human triumphs."--San Antonio Express-News
Link here. The article freely admits that a new contagious disease is not the same as something like cancer and snakebites. It also notes the importance of putting this virus in its proper perspective, something unfortunately few are doing.
For example, about 4,700 deaths from the Wuhan flu have been recorded worldwide today. From all accounts we are also very near the peak of this epidemic. Compare this with other death rates:
According to the World Health Organisation’s (WHO) International Agency for Research on Cancer, there were 9.6 million deaths from cancer in 2018. That works out to around 26,000 deaths a day worldwide.
17.9 million people died from all cardiovascular diseases in 2016 according to the WHO—this works out as 49,000 a day.
Ischaemic heart disease or coronary heart disease specifically was the cause of 9.4 million deaths worldwide in 2016, 25,840 a day.
In 2016 the WHO estimated that 1.6 million people a year die from factors relating directly to diabetes. This is about 4,400 a day. [emphasis mine]
There’s more. Read it all. And remember also that of the 4,700 or so deaths from COVID-19 today, many occurred because the patient was already sick from some other illness and, based on the skewed reporting system being used, might really have died from those illnesses, not the Wuhan flu.
It is very clear that the fears pounded into us by the leftist academic community, working in league with the Washington bureaucracy, are way out of line. As the article concludes:
To sum up where we stand today, April 9: Based on the pretext that we must “limit the spread” of the Wuhan virus, the American economic boom of the past three years has been reversed in a matter of days, millions have lost their jobs, tens of thousands of small businesses have been shuttered and will probably never reopen, and three-quarters of the American population has been subjected to some form of house arrest by state, county and city governments.
All over the country people are being fined or arrested and jailed for violating suddenly imposed restrictions on their every movement and gathering, often with the aid of their neighbors, who turn them in to the police, following instructions on how to be a snitch. Attendance at religious services has been forbidden altogether or limited to ten people, even in vast cathedrals, while “permission” is granted to crowd supermarkets and convenience stores, buy booze, purchase cannabis and have pets groomed.
America’s almost instantaneous transformation into a police state is based on “models” that “predicted” upwards of 2 million deaths from the Wuhan virus without “mitigation” in the form of a preposterous attempt to quarantine 330 million people. And the people have obsequiously bowed to every ridiculous command.
We have been scammed. It is time that the scammers paid, not innocent Americans. It will however take innocent Americans to make that happen, at the voting booth in November.
On Christmas Eve 1968 three Americans became the first humans to visit another world. What they did to celebrate was unexpected and profound, and will be remembered throughout all human history. Genesis: the Story of Apollo 8, Robert Zimmerman's classic history of humanity's first journey to another world, tells that story, and it is now available as both an ebook and an audiobook, both with a foreword by Valerie Anders and a new introduction by Robert Zimmerman.
The ebook is available everywhere for $5.99 (before discount) at amazon, or direct from my ebook publisher, ebookit. If you buy it from ebookit you don't support the big tech companies and the author gets a bigger cut much sooner.
The audiobook is also available at all these vendors, and is also free with a 30-day trial membership to Audible.
"Not simply about one mission, [Genesis] is also the history of America's quest for the moon... Zimmerman has done a masterful job of tying disparate events together into a solid account of one of America's greatest human triumphs."--San Antonio Express-News
Brace for the sensationalist news stories which will run in about two days’ time when the official COVID-19 US death toll surpasses that of Italy. (Earlier today we handily passed Spain into the number two spot.) These are, of course, total counts, and not per capita figures, but I doubt that will be mentioned.
I wish there was a good alternative name to “Wuhan flu”. It’s got a nice ring to it — it just flows better than something more sterile like “Wuhan disease” — but an influenza virus is something else entirely, so it comes across as ill informed. (Or is there precedent for using the term “flu” more loosely?) Various constructions reference bats, but I hate to bring them into it.
You live in the United States. Is there someone running for president that shares your view of things? Every time Trump mentions wanting to get people back to work he is lambasted by the news media, which represents the general view of the opposing party. Trump’s position has been to allow governors and local governments decide on if and how they deal with this disease. They have established guidelines for personal conduct, but haven’t mandated action, with penalties for ignoring the mandates. It is the press that have made it very difficult to do anything other than act based on the most dire models of inaction.
I live in the Bay Area.. where we have been “Sheltered in Place” and my business shuttered and twenty families impacted. This is a financial hardship on all of us, but my wife works on a Covid floor of a local hospital and all of the medical staff are scared to death. They are lacking personal protective gear and people are dying. Likely people are dying of other diseases at a greater rate, but even during the 2017-2018 flu season they didn’t experience this shortage of supplies. So, something is different here. Even without the press over-the-top reporting there is something different.
But Bob, those listed diseases and causes of death occur and behave differently. In some way, they’re part of the background noise and expected events the health care system is prepared for. They’re also costing a lot, it’s just not so visible because they’re ongoing. And for most there are campaigns to limit them.
This kind of argument is like when liberals wonder why conservatives care so much about innocent people being killed by illegals or worry about Islamist attacks, compared to how many people die from smoking or car accidents.
I’m with you on the questionable motivation some politicians, experts, and journalists have to utilize this for their agenda and profit. Some of the measures can be explained by lack of preparedness and continuing uncertainty. The (temporary?) loss of civil liberties and the terrible economic impact are serious issues.
On the other hand, we see this over the whole (developed) world and they’re not doing it for fun and giggles. If they thought that America is silly for shutting down the economy, they’d boost up theirs to take advantage of the situation — but they don’t.
Bob…. I find your position from the very start, to our current situation both wrong and biased… In spades…
From the first outbreak, before anything close to believable statistics were available you have been pushing your “chicken little syndrome” theory as tho it is fact.
Yes, you are great at going cherry picking articles and statistics that back up your oh so righteous and obviously correct position, and you do so without a trace of hubris. The jury is very much still out on this situation. God knows I actually hope you are right. You told me off for a little dark English humour regarding death rates… I could say it’s no more offensive than …quote “that of the 4,700 or so deaths from COVID-19 today, many occurred because the patient was already sick from some other illness”… I’m pleased that it matters little to you if already sick people die….
7900 people have died positive for corona in my home area in the UK, in the last couple of weeks, along with all the “regular” deaths… Boots on the ground here… The health service is trying to get my father to move back home as his condition has improved… He can’t walk, he can’t even get to the toilet, I won’t go into more details, but they need his bed for the influx of patients… Fortunately he has the funds ( in true US style, for the family to sort this situation…) To be honest, I’m growing a little tired of the rantings of someone who has zero boots on the ground experience, who blatently cherry picks data to suit their own agenda, and willfully ignores anything that don’t fit.
Bob, you are rapidly turning from a trusted news source, into an opinion piece of fluff with an agenda, And to be honest, that just makes me sad.
And I forgot to say…. Stay safe guys… Try not to cough on anyone, wash those hands! Industrial isopropyl alcohol is much cheaper than medical, but no different, and just stay safe…. I love and respect our host here… But Bob, I’ve said it before… Stick to space and politics… There is no opinion worth a dime to be made right now on medical matters … You do not “win” by constantly posting how right you were about whatever…. Let this play out and we will all be proven right or wrong…. Stop crying, knuckle down, wash your hands and let’s see what happens…
If you fancy reading about all the probable WuTang deaths that have not been recorded in the UK.. have a look Hundreds of UK care home deaths not added to official coronavirus toll
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/apr/09/covid-19-hundreds-of-uk-care-home-deaths-not-added-to-official-toll?CMP=Share_AndroidApp_Copy_to_clipboard
@Gary…. I wish you, and no offence, but more importantly your wife all the best in these hard times… Those that work on the front line right now are the heroes of our time… Blow hards like our host and a few others here think more about the right to liberty etc, etc, etc… But those who are stepping up and saving lives ( along with the guys and girls who are still collecting trash, the guys and girls who are still working the checkout, the guys and girls who are still driving the trucks that are supplying our needs that keep us alive) …. They are the real hero’s right now…. And I have no allegiance to your flag… But I salute them.
Stay safe!
Mr. Zimmerman’s preferred belief that the measures taken have had little effect on the rate of spread of the disease defy reality, in cities in the US that reacted with measures before the disease became established in the community the spread and death toll have remained low, in cities in which the disease was established in the community before measures were taken the disease has infected many people with many deaths.
There’s an obvious correlation across dozens of countries with the rate of spread and the measures taken with more extreme measures (whether government imposed or initiatives by people as individuals or as a community) correlating with the more dramatic slowing of spread. I’ve no doubt that if NZ had followed the more casual example set by Sweden we’d have hundreds of deaths by now instead of just 1. In this country we’re tracking the disease fairly well with 50% more tests/million people than the US and with 98% of tests being negative.
Andrew, is the NZ government talking about a COVID endgame — or at least a local endgame. Is your infection rate low enough that they hope to eliminate it on the islands in its entirety, and then go back to business as usual, or at least as usual as possible without foreign visitors? Has there been talk of reopening international travel via mandatory, government run quarantine camps?
The REAL history of “north America”
By Lee S.
Sometime back in Viking times, the mad Vikings sailed across to North America..
They had a good long look… A good long think… Went home, and never came back.
A few decades later, a Spanish sailor looking for India got lost ( twas before the days of Google maps ) and found some islands with a great culture of mangos , dancehall rythems and chilling.
Obviously the people were subhuman, so they were enslaved, treated like cattle… Bought and sold like the subhumans that they were…
Meanwhile…. The USA mainland was been explored… a land of untold promise… a land where any man could be free ( as long as the locals didn’t mind..)
Thus came the first example of biological warfare… Infect the locals … They will easily die, so let’s give them blankets laden with western germs… That will work…they are probably human, but not as white as us… so it’s all good…
Then came gold, and them came selling human beings into slavery, the unfunny irony is the white man called the black man saveges.
Fortunately, after a lot of gunfire, and an awful lot of deaths on every side, the old dudes in the US wrote a paper about how life will be lived… And 300 years or so later the people of this land they raped and stole think it gives them the right to semi automatic assault rifles. The indigenous people still live in fear and poverty…
HOWEVER.. there was something involving tea…. which even though the land of the free seems not so free just now… You yanks should cast your mind backs to when you were a little colony, without guns or smallpox, and remember how a cup of tea could make it all… All right… It’s the English way….
And, they were all English men for the most part, just like you.
The guilt and self hate must be killing you.
How do you live with yourself? No mirrors in your house.
Rose, at this stage we’re about half way through a 4 week government imposed lock-down, we had 29 new cases yesterday, which has been a steady decline over the last few days despite a significant increase in testing. The goal is to eliminate the disease from NZ and the measures taken by govt have wide support, not such good support from me though as I see many measures as over-the-top impositions that would achieve little on the one hand, and poor execution of measures by govt that should have been carried out more efficiently that would have been effective on the other. For example I’ve no doubt we’re getting a lot of ‘leakage’ of the disease through “essential” services like the police dealing with people face-to-face without any distancing, and through medical personnel not being supplied with PPE despite govt claims that there’s plenty of PPE available, in fact there have been several instances of medical staff being told not to wear PPE and 2 cases of infection of med staff after they were barred from using PPE.
The government monopoly supply chain of numerous items of med supplies has failed over and over again with govt saying hospitals and GP’s are getting everything they need while the hospitals and GP’s are calling BS on that one.
Most NZer’s are also annoyed at the incompetence the govt demonstrated in preventing it getting into the country, despite the govt claiming it was doing lots of checks on travelers coming in, the travelers themselves were calling BS, saying there was little in the way of checks, and there were soo many cases of travelers being instructed to self isolate for two weeks that were blatantly ignored. Yesterday it was reported that 501 cases out of about 1200 cases in the country were people bringing it to NZ, with most of the rest of cases being direct links to them.
But despite all that govt incompetence we do have a good chance of eliminating the virus from this country over the next few weeks and I understand the plan is to severely restrict international travel until the threat of it being re-introduced is essentially gone, that if it’s eliminated we can all get back to nearly normal life.
Sorry…. I’m in the middle of writing a stand up piece…. And no better place to try out for some outrage than here…. ( If I’m factually wrong, corrections are very welcome)..
“Puts on tin hat, turns back to the camara and awaits the onslaught”
@Cotour, no they were not, there were Englishmen, Frenchmen, Dutchmen, Irishmen, Spanish, from everywhere…. ( I’ve always thought that “wild west” movies were not true to life…. No one had an “American” dialect in those days…)
I have no guilt…. I live under a system that has evolved over millennia…. Sure that system is flawed and has involved blood and treasure over the thousand + years it’s been around…. But nobody ever invaded Sweden , or the UK, and took it for their own , ( 1066 was the last time the UK was successfully invaded)…. I’m just trying to poke a bit of fun, in the bits I know hurt…. That’s the route of dark comedy ;-)
@Andrew W….. I would have thought that NZ would have perhaps one of the best chances of keeping the virus nailed down…. A relatively small population, a bloody big land your lot are spread over…. And some of the strictest immigration policies in the world… It supprises me you guys even need lockdown!
As I’ve said many times before…. We are in a worldwide experiment…. There are absolutely zero convisive conclusions to be drawn just yet…. Errrmmmm… And that’s it … No one knows.
https://youtu.be/s88r_q7oufE
Lee et al.,
Let me say a positive thing about Bob’s continuous skepticism about bat soup flu. It’s good training for the rest of us who think this is a very serious affair (or who’re even as paranoid like me and treat it as a bioweapon). Bob finds new data and arguments why this isn’t the zombie apocalypse and we have to show why it is. I hope Bob keeps his course. Because we really have to have sound reasons for any restriction of civil liberties and economic impacts.
Re your history of North America, were you applying this Whiskey-based “medicine” again? Delicious garbage. And yes, semi-automatic assault rifles are a God-given human right — and duty! Because when your government turns tyrannical against you, you need to drown the Earth with the blood of traitors. Tree of Liberty on all that.
It supprises me you guys even need lockdown!
Well, we wouldn’t have if the govt had performed its responsibilities to block the invader and stop it getting into the country in the first place, but no, PM Ardern is all about putting on a good show and pulling lots of faces, no substance in terms of actually getting things done.
By the way Lee, next time warn me before you trick me into clicking on a link that leads to annoying noises. This is far more civilized:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=St6jyEFe5WM&list=RDSt6jyEFe5WM&start_radio=1
Lee S: Sorry you feel that way. I cannot change my own conclusions, based on the facts as I see them. I also do not cheery pick. I look at a lot of sources, but in the end post those that illustrate what I think best what is happening.
As for boots on the ground, you know nothing about my personal situation. I have not talked about it, and will not.You should not assume.
Ian C: When it comes to the use of power to destroy the freedom of anyone, I have found it always wise to exercise great skepticism. In almost all cases, such skepticism proves to be right, and the use of power a misuse and abuse.
Sadly people no longer agree with this. I am continuously amazed at how credulous the public has become, to the point that they call skeptics like me “deniers” and “blowhards”, rather than consider the possibility that I might have a point.
I admit I could be wrong. However, in this case, shouldn’t we all hope I am right, that the death rate ends up as low as I expect, and no where as high as predicted, and that the modelers themselves were the blowhards?
Lee S wrote, “But Bob, I’ve said it before… Stick to space and politics.”
I love you how repeatedly insist I muzzle myself, but would be outraged if I censored your ability on my website to comment in any manner on any subject you chose. (I won’t by the way. Unlike you I believe in freedom.)
FWIW, I read this blog and some that are 180 degrees away in perspective. It is like competition in business to see which has a better product, which in this case is accuracy. So far, Bob is way ahead, though I don’t just take his word for it as it is my responsibility to check on the information I accept or reject.
john hare, a link to one of these other blogs you mention would be appreciated.
I am continuously amazed at how credulous the public has become, to the point that they call skeptics like me “deniers” and “blowhards”, rather than consider the possibility that I might have a point.
I submit that credulity is inversely proportional to age.
eddie willers: Heh. Though generally this is true, I have seen some pretty old people, older than I, quite willing to believe any blather coming from governmental sources. A lot. A lot more than you’d expect or want for our society to stay free.
Lee S:
A dark comedy routine?
You have to find a way to make what you write actually funny.
You got the dark down, now you have to find the funny. And even murder and slavery can have its dark / funny aspects, now you just have to find them.
If I am in the mood I will give it a try.
Lee, your “history” is inaccurate, myopic and frankly, offensive.
“In this country we’re tracking the disease fairly well with 50% more tests/million people than the US and with 98% of tests being negative.”
NZ is much much smaller than the USA so it is easier to do the testing. In the USA, most of the testing takes place in our hot spots. We test tens of thousands a day, soon to be in the hundreds of thousands a day, and have tested over two million people in total. Soon, the volume of testing and the variety of tests available will be staggering and our innovations will be rolled out globally. There are a few countries doing good work on testing and treatments but American Juggernaut is building pace and will not stop.
“Thus came the first example of biological warfare… Infect the locals … They will easily die, so let’s give them blankets laden with western germs… That will work…they are probably human, but not as white as us… so it’s all good…”
Not only did this never happen, people didn’t even know about germ theory in those days. You can’t stop humans from interacting and separate populations have always spread diseases, immunities, and genes to other populations. Did you know the exchange of disease was not one sided? Syphilis was the new world’s gift to the old. What impact has that disease had over the centuries?
Lee S:
Your peoples legacy: https://youtu.be/dCk6fSQ21rY
Now this is funny, a bit dark and racist but funny.
Lee, you just confirmed your status as a troll.
Lee, order and read this whole your getting better.
https://www.amazon.com/Debunking-Howard-Zinn-Exposing-Generation-ebook/dp/B07NLGWS6F
Lee-
Holy cow dude—-you know very little of the actual history of the United States.
wayne: I think Lee thought he was being funny. It was a spectacular failure. It also once again revealed a gleeful joy in him that the U.S. is having problems. As Trump would say, “Sad!”
Bob,
It’s probably a sign of the totalitarian mindset so prevalent (again) in our times to fight any critical thought as illegitimate, deranged, or criminal. I was quite surprised when I learned that those who criticized the Imperial model on C19 were called dangerous and irresponsible. Must be the same kind of people who smear skeptics of climate doom and the accompanying (highly lucrative [for some, that is]) measures with the same words.
For gleeful joy about America’s pandemic situation, just read most of Western European’s press. Its typical anti-Americanism is a bit more in-ya-face than usual currently. Its hate for Trump is the same though, i.e. high.
Apologies to Lee, and I’ll assume he knows better.
The Good, the Bad and the Ugly –
The “Estasi dell’Oro” (“Ecstasy of Gold”) segment
Swedish Royal Philharmonic Orchestra
https://youtu.be/OQ1PJs5-Zmk
1:43
At an economy of $20 trillion and a population of 300 million, we see that each year each American is $65,000 productive, and each lifetime (76 years) is $5 million productive. For each Trillion dollars of government spending to mitigate the effects of government’s overreach, we lose the equivalent of 200,000 people’s lifetime productivity, reducing our ability to solve future health issues was well as reducing the overall productivity. For the recent $2 trillion plus $4 trillion remediation law, that comes to 1.2 million wasted lifetimes.
For every million people who lose their jobs (America has exceeded 15 million, now) and assuming a working career of 45 years, each week of shutdown loses the equivalent of 425 lifetimes, so this week alone we are losing the equivalent of 6,400 lives just from the lack of productivity. As the unemployment continues to skyrocket, the weekly equivalent lost lives will also continue to climb.
From the reports of the models used to determine policy, the first and second parts of our remediation efforts, travel bans and social distancing, reduced potential deaths by 90%, or 2 million lives. The destroyed economy and massive government debt can only save up to the remaining 200,000, and it is doing a poor job of that.
From my math, above, we are wasting six times more lives than the maximum lives that could be saved by lockdown, and it only gets worse with each passing week.
Lee S.,
You wrote: “Thus came the first example of biological warfare… Infect the locals … They will easily die, so let’s give them blankets laden with western germs… ”
A progressive’s lie. Historians were only able to find that two traders made this claim in a Colorado tavern, once, in the 19th century, but they have never been able to find any indications of Indians who were the victims of such a scheme.
“and them came selling human beings into slavery”
Which came from the English king. Indeed, when the American colonists wanted to make slavery illegal in several American colonies King George vetoed those laws. This veto is the very first grievance in the Declaration of Independence.
“Fortunately, after a lot of gunfire, and an awful lot of deaths on every side, the old dudes in the US wrote a paper about how life will be lived… ”
Actually, they wrote about how their federal government was to be operated, not how anyone was to live his life, as they believed that life, liberty, and the pursuit of happiness was up to the individual, not the government.
Remember this stupid comment of yours, an unreal history of a location that you thought needed to be put in quotes, the next time you complain about someone cherry picking his facts.
“no they were not, there were Englishmen, Frenchmen, Dutchmen, Irishmen, Spanish, from everywhere….”
Actually, the ones that you most complained about , the old men who “wrote a paper about how life will be lived” were subjects of the English king. Oh, and the lost Spanish sailor, he was Italian. You really need to check your facts before revising history.
Andrew_W wrote: “at this stage we’re about half way through a 4 week government imposed lock-down, we had 29 new cases yesterday, which has been a steady decline over the last few days despite a significant increase in testing.”
Since the incubation time is two weeks, we see that in New Zealand the efforts made before the lockdown worked very well, as their has been a decline before the result of the lockdown could take effect.
Since the incubation time is two weeks, we see that in New Zealand the efforts made before the lockdown worked very well, as their has been a decline before the result of the lockdown could take effect.
Nice try, and to some extent you’re right, but:
1. About 40% of cases are direct imports. The contribution by those imported cases has been reported as fairly constantly at 40% of new cases, only recently declining with the dramatic reduction in the number of New Zealanders returning home in the last few days.
2. The incubation period is not “two weeks”, it’s as short as 3-4 days, so if the decline in infections were entirely due to the lock-down we would expect numbers to decline within a few days of the start of lock-down.
A new study calculates that the median incubation period for COVID-19 is just over 5 days and that 97.5% of people who develop symptoms will do so within 11.5 days of infection.
https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2020/03/200317175438.htm
Whoops… I really shouldn’t post after a few beers, and dropping my night meds…. Apologies to anyone deeply offended…
I am going to scroll back and check out the links I have been recommended to click on … ( Sorry Andrew… I love that song, and thought it pertinent to the discussion..)
My point remains though…. For the few years I have been hanging out here I have suffered a never ending tirade telling me that I am wrong, the country of my birth is wrong ( some truth there ), and that my country of choice is wrong. My politics are wrong, Sweden’s politics are wrong, any thought coming from left of center is wrong, and basically my beliefs and the social system I approve of is destined to nothing but doom and collapse. The hubris of the USA is actually a source of humour… I might need to work a little on my diatribe, ( and thanks to all for pointing out factual inaccuracies… I want to remain truthful)…
If there is to be any good to be taken from this whole messed up situation, it’s that when we come out the other side we will all be taking a long look at our priorities, and our values… And fingers crossed changes will occur for the better… If nothing else, the world should be better prepared next time around.
Stay safe my American friends…. Take my attempts at comedy with the big pinch of salt it’s intended with… And keep washing those hands!
@Edward…. It was a humorous ( to some ) diatribe… thanks for pointing out my inaccuracies, although you are wrong regarding my point in the mix of accents… If we had the honour to be able to go back and listen in on conversations, the mix of dialects would be amazing…
Here is one thought for you to chew over…. If my stereotypical thoughts regarding the USA are so wrong, what does that say about your stereotypical thoughts regarding Sweden? Given that we are both fairly intelligent men, ( ok, I drink a bit too much, and I’m crazy ), but if I am really that far off the mark regarding US culture, doesn’t that imply that perhaps you a little off the mark regarding mine?
Regardless of the answer…. Stay safe!
@Bob…. I apologize is I presumed regarding your personal situation…. I realize that some things are off limits in the discourse here, and I am sorry.
Regarding your other points, absolutely no, you should never have to moderate your own comments on your own website…. You misunderstand me, I am as fervent about free speech as anyone here…. But I also believe that if you have a large audience, if you are being disingenuous, it’s fine to call that out … And I believe you are verging into the territory of miss-information with your constant downplaying of the current pandemic… Perhaps I am wrong, and have missed something, but as far as I can tell, your every comment regarding Corona has implied that there is nothing to worry about.
I find this troubling, at a point where any “facts” that either you or I refer to are essentially rubbish. Hopefully the actual numbers will be far lower than the the projected numbers… But to pull any conclusions at this point is disingenuous.
And one final opinion…. Purely opinion… I have no data to back this up…. Only what I have received from fellow boots on the ground reports and seen with my own eyes.
I believe that the WuTang flue is going to infect pretty much everyone… 90somthing percent will have no symptoms, those that do will have a high mortality rate…. When this is done the body count will be in millions above the standard death rate for this time of year. It’s a killer… And it’s the health workers, and the service workers that are keeping the wheels of modern life turning…. I know I’m mostly disagreed with here…. But be it US, Swedish, Brazilian or Australian…. I raise a glass for the small people who are doing such a huge job keeping sanity in life for us all.
Lee S:
Your apology accepted.
Most rational people understand and have some compassion (but not much) for the more committed and practicing people of the Left who have loads of “Issues”, and many take meds to deal with them. I myself have friends and people who surround me in NYC that are just as confused and partially informed about history and politics and the irrational conclusions that the Politically Correct among us arrive at entertain me to no end. And its a more sad kind of entertainment.
I laugh right in their face, when appropriate. So if comedy was your true goal in your stupor, you have accomplished it to some degree.
And I love when those on the Left use the, “The Native Americans were invaded and their lives living in concert with nature, in eternal peace, was taken away by the Europeans”. The Native Americans, as were most EVERY tribe or civilization that has ever existed throughout time were territorial and war like and were raiders and rapers and captured and kept their own slaves. If not that they just killed you in the many ways that they invented to do so, and they may have eaten your brain if it served their ritual purposes. Just like has happened throughout history in most every one of those tribes or civilizations through out the world. At least for the last 11,000 years, if not since humans climbed down from the trees. And not to minimize it, the Native Americans after being decimated were and continue to be the victims of that loss.
And you also propose that the Europeans essentially invented slavery and the many inhuman acts that come along with the practice. They did not. If truth be told slavery was invented and perfected beginning in places like Africa and Egypt etc. And of course I am not justifying it in any way or for one second, all I am doing is pointing out your convenient self serving use of such a depraved practice to your purposes. Now that is dark.
And you forget to mention that it is those same Europeans and the civilization that they brought eventually resulted in the formal and legal abolishment of such practices for most of the civilized world. Just one detail that you forget to mention.
And drugs and booze or not you should know better than to attempt to present such foolish narratives, especially here on BTB.
Wishing you and your family the best in these “interesting” times we find ourselves.
Hey Lee,
I’m glad to hear that your father is doing better.
I was wondering if, upon surviving infection and recovering without (I assume) damage, you have experienced any sense of elation or a feeling of, well, if not invincibility, at least having the superpower of presumptive immunity.
I suppose I am projecting here, and expressing a bit of envy.
I’m helping a number of high risk category, elderly neighbors by doing their shopping and taking their trash to the dump and their recycling to collection boxes (which probably also ends up in some dump somewhere, now that the county has shifted to single-stream collection), to limit their possibility of exposure. But I’m now very reluctant to do the occasional chores I used to, such as going inside to scoop their cats’ litter boxes or sit down over a cup of tea and socialize, as I’m concerned that I could spread an infection I don’t yet know I have. (I can’t imagine the conflict home-health nurse practitioners must feel over this.)
So in slightly different circumstances, I’d be of a mind to seek out infection to get it over with and then get on without the same concerns. (And I’m no youngster — though perhaps I’ve never lost a juvenile sense of immortality. Intellectually, I know I won’t live forever, but emotionally, I can’t buck the feeling that, at the very least, I’m immortal until I die, … and once that happens I won’t be around to worry about it!)
If antibody testing comes on line, and it is confirmed that infection and recovery confers a large degree of immunity, then I expect a lot of people will seek out infection — sort of a modern take on the old pox party — though I’m sure the practice will be denounced by the medical community. I’ve not yet read about intentional COVID-19 self-infection, but I wouldn’t be surprised if it’s happening to some degree already.
It would surprise the hell out of me.
Lee: I believe that the WuTang flue is going to infect pretty much everyone…
I think you are most likely correct.
Rose and Cotour: That this virus is going to infect everyone is the number one reason it is a mistake to run in terror from it. The faster its infection is distributed, the sooner it will die off, thus protecting those older individuals who will have trouble fighting it off.
In other words, we should not live in fear, but boldly. That is what a free people do. That is what past American generations did.
There is only one unknown that would make this approach a failure, and that would be if it is possible to get COVID-19 a second time, even if you have antibodies for it. In that case, the epidemic will not die off, and older people (like myself) will always be threatened by it. So far, the evidence points against this possibility, though there have been a few weakly sourced news reports suggesting that some can get the Wuhan virus twice.
We shall have to see. I however remain optimistic.
I too am optimistic, but I certainly will not be going looking to become infected by this virus, this is not the mumps. And I suggest the same for you. Are you in that 5 or so percent that can not withstand the trial by bat virus? Is Rose?
I think the long term take away from this, however it shakes out regarding the potential peculiarities of this particular virus, in the long term people will without doubt for the most part be a little more mindful about their personal space and their personal cleaning habits as well as others.
(As a little side note from the real world: A friend just came in, his wife is a nurse. She comes home a nervous wreck every day he told me. Comes home, removes all of her clothes and showers immediately. He is very concerned for her.
I have a little program going for all front line medical people where I shave off a chunk of their purchase due to an anonymous person who is financing it. They deserve it, and they appreciate it
And just now another customer, a local 3 electrician who has been on furlough for 7 weeks tells me he is getting $500 a week in unemployment, and another $600 from the stimulus for a grand total of $1100.00 per week. I observed that it does not pay for him to go back to work. He agreed. This stimulus may have some unexpected consequences, when the government just throws money at something that is usually the result. But what else could they do in their confused desperation?)
(Re. intentional self-infection)
Cotour: It would surprise the hell out of me.
Really? I know I’m strange, but in a country of a third of a billion people, there have got to be a handful who are even stranger — or even just as strange, but in slightly different circumstances. Though I could see why they wouldn’t talk about it.
Searching online, I found two related stories:
* https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/08/opinion/coronavirus-parties-herd-immunity.html
Here an epidemiologist gives “seven reasons your “coronavirus party” is a bad idea”, saying that this is a question she is increasingly hearing.
* https://reason.com/2020/03/27/deliberately-infect-healthy-young-people-to-test-coronavirus-vaccines-propose-bioethicists/
Slightly different, but recommending quick double-blind vaccination/placebo followed by intentional exposure trials using young, health volunteers.
That last I’d certainly jump at (assuming they’d be interested in some not-so-young) as I would be contributing double to society.
Cotour: Are you in that 5 or so percent that can not withstand the trial by bat virus? Is Rose?
I’ll take my chances.* ** But I can’t speak for others, and thus don’t feel justified in recommending societal strategies. Bob isn’t shy about it, but it is just too far above my pay grade to do anything but attempt to shape a consensus.
* Assuming you don’t declare me pure if I succumb, but a witch to be condemned to death if I survive!
** I assume those chances are a bit better than you suggest, because:
I think we all agree that the published death rates are almost certainly high due to severe under-reporting of mild or asymptomatic cases (exacerbated by a lack of testing).
And I think we also agree that many of those in the highest risk category who die would have likely died without infection sometime in the next year or even the next couple months. (Not trying to be cold here. Every death is connected to numerous threads of the human condition, each often involving a great deal of anguish and pain. But having one’s life cut a few months short IS less tragic than being cut down in one’s prime. Thankfully this plague doesn’t target the young like the 1918 Spanish* flu did.) [* “Spanish” in name only. That one was also Chinese.]
I do disagree, however, with some claims I’m seeing that COVID-19 deaths are being vastly over-reported. Infection rates just aren’t yet high enough that the intersection of those actively infected and those who were going to die anyway during those couple of weeks of infection would yield a significant number. (I agree that the infection could be the last straw — but that fits in the category above. But I rather doubt that the trauma victim who dies after testing positive is really being counted as a COVID-19 death.) More than balancing that, a lack of testing means that those who die at home (in NYC at least), are not tested, and thus were not counted unless they had previously tested positive. And NYC is reporting a sharp increase in deaths at home — from roughly 25 daily to well over 200. Hmm, I see this is changing, and NYC will now be reporting “probable” COVID-19 deaths form those who die at home with suspect symptoms.
So perhaps the numerator is a wash, but the true denominator is almost certainly much larger than currently understood.
* https://www.syracuse.com/coronavirus/2020/04/us-may-issue-coronavirus-immunity-cards-fauci-says.html
Here is a way to change societal opinions. We aren’t experiencing the sort of catastrophe where the living envy the dead, but if we come to the point where the uninfected envy the recovered or otherwise immune, then we may see some coronavirus parties, but more importantly there will be a greater demand both for rapid (though riskier) vaccine trials and for reopening of the economy. (The latter because while getting infected still has its costs, it would offer potential benefits as well, thus shifting (to some small degree) one’s personal risk/benefit calculus.)
You can be as strange as you choose Rose, I fully support your ability to choose for yourself what ever you please. You want to have a Covid 19 party? You go right ahead. As long as it relates primarily to you or other consenting adults and does not force your choices too aggressively on another. So, have at it.
I also disagree with this statement:
“And I think we also agree that many of those in the highest risk category who die would have likely died without infection sometime in the next year or even the next couple months. ”
My experience in talking to some of the ICU nurses on the front line of this in NYC are really not making the distinctions that you are making regarding people who are afflicted with this and are taken out of commission and or killed by it and their particular age or condition. These nurses are all very concerned for their personal welfare while working with this thing, and they are mostly on the younger side of the metric.
So my conclusion is still while in the mix today: Wash your hands after you touch anything, don’t pick your nose (Your not a nose picker, are you Rose? I didn’t think so :), don’t rub your eyes, and in general, as long as this thing is raging as a general rule stay away from people, at least ones that you are not closely affiliated with. Not until some clinically accepted therapy to deal with it effectively is developed and recognized.
Sometime the Hydroxy chloroquin / z pack / zinc therapy works well from what I am anecdotally hearing from several sources, and sometimes it does not. So please, when you decide to begin your experiment with self infection let us know, we will all like to know how it works out.
And of course I wish you the best of luck.
Contour: You’re not a nose picker, are you Rose? I didn’t think so.
But I am an eyebrow stroker, which is almost as bad. Keep … hands … off … face. Argh! So hard!
Yes, I do feel strongly for what the medical community is going through and am hugely appreciative of their dedication, even in the best of times. And they do pay in any scheme which increases infection rate. Best wishes to your front-line-medical-people-customers and to Gary’s wife. (I better stop here before I pull a Tiny Tim!)
An eye brow stroker………hummmmm.
Rose,
Your commments made me snicker, as my ancestors in England were almost burned for being witches. They survived a smallpox outbreak in their village when most of the town was killed, and they were unscathed. There is a genetic immunity to smallpox in my bloodline that was almost culled from the herd due to fears of witchcraft. My entire BCT company had scars form the smallpox vaccination, I had no reaction at all. Nothing.
commondude,
My mother had no reaction to the vaccine. As a child in the 50s she was sent back to be re-vaccinated because she had no scar on her arm. None of my older sibs, born before 1972 have one either.
I was vaccinated in 2003. I have no scar, and never developed the blisters. My younger brother in 2012. No scarring.
It happens.
Sippin_bourbon…
Love the handle. LOL
Didn’t know that little bit of family lore until I was having dinner with my uncle after coming back from active duty. Seems my mother’s side of the family largely carry that immunity. It’s odd how the genetics work out.
Would either of you gentlemen, since you have a demonstrated a strong family history of viral resistance, be willing to voluntarily throw those dice and take the Bat soup virus challenge with Rose?
Cotour,
Since abusing my body for 20 years in the military and having a variety of “preexisting medical issues”, I’ll pass and wait for science to come up with a vaccine.
Not sure I’d win the fight.
The question isn’t whether any one of us will choose to expose ourselves to the virus. The question is whether we should make that choice for others, by force if necessary.
Our society has apparently decided it has the right to decide for everyone, in all circumstances. Freedom be damned.
What bothers me about the handling of this is the amount of panic engendered by the media and politicians. I’ve seen grown men act out in total, abject fear, quivering in rage over it.
We pay our nickel, we take our chances. I’d prefer to take my own chances, and not have them dictated to me. Last time I checked the Constitution made me those promises.
And now we are back to the vaxing in the schools issue and not knowing what we do not know nor what is the best thing to be done.
Thinking along these lines, what if Dr, Fauci decreed that all persons that serve the public will have a test to prove that they are either without the markers for the virus and are “Clean”, or they have the markers for the virus and they have developed anti bodies and can no longer transmit the virus to those who have no immunity. Which ever he deems the more effective or “safer” protocol.
Neither is acceptable to me, but maybe it will be decided that “for the good of the people this MUST be done”.
And then where will be all be? Now even adults will be turned into the children and made to comply or you can not work? And you will have to now provide papers to establish your eligibility to work serving the public? And who might be producing those tests or vaccinations? That would be one sweet contract. And who would enforce it?
This has the potential to go to some very interesting places.
Cotour: Fascist Fauci (I like that I might use it more) could demand that anyone without antibodies, unclean you might say, will have to sew a yellow star on their clothes. He could even have the government make them, putting the word “UNCLEAN” in the middle.
Yeah, that’s the ticket. It’s worked so well before!
We already have such papers.
They are called vaccination records. I am not an anti-vaxxer . So if/when a vaccine is produced I will accept it.
I cannot take the chances to be part of a test group due to my contact with someone who is immunocompromised.
It seems to me they are able to find volunteers for these things. I see adds for studies and medical research. They get compensated. Some times pretty well.
If declared unclean, will they have to ring a little bell?
At some point leadership will have to lead, doctors and consultants are not leadership.
Trump is ruminating about this very issue, and the pressure is on him, but IMO he will intuitively come to his decision and move positively into the future. And his one problem is that this is not his area of expertise, and he can not make a major mistake for the many obvious reasons.
That being said the solutions going into the future will IMO have to be incremental protocols, methods of control, personal awareness, informative media campaigns, what have you. There is no perfect solution here where the virus is scrubbed from the environment. The virus, like the Chinese, care not about whether anyone is inconvenienced or killed. They are a lot alike in that way.
People say “We will wait for the vaccine”. Well guess what? AIDS is a virus and we have been waiting for a vaccine for that for the last 30 years? (Has it been that long?). And who knows whats going on inside this bat virus? (That “missing” (read: dead) bat virus researcher knows) And some how there have been developed ways of managing the AIDS virus and people live with it for many, many years in a normal manner.
This, like most all problems and their solutions is not about being black or white, its about rational individuals making decisions for themselves and their own lives. If we were discussing the release of plutonium, now that would be more of a black or white issue, ask the people of Chernobyl or Fukashima about their choices.
Trump is going to have to communicate these ideas and short term incremental solutions to his people and the people of America and manage this thing. And there obviously will be a moment in the future where the first steps will be able to be made, and then the next and the next. Does anyone think that the population of America is going to sit in their defaulted on houses for a year before they get up and solve their problems? I think not.
Trump will intuitively feel his way through this based on science and reasonable incremental solutions. If not, what? Like I tell everyone who comes to me scared and confused “Whats going to happen?” they ask.
Stay calm and do what is reasonable, and if you are inconvenienced in some way, get over it and move into the future in some positive way, shape, or form. If not then drive to the highest bridge that you can find and solve all of your problems. That tends to give them some perspective.
I have established rational measures, have clearly communicated them and have found ways to manage my safety and the publics safety and it has been very successful so far, Im still here. And admittedly I have a unique situation. Each business will have to do the same, and some will not be able to survive because there will be too long of a time between the beginning of this event and the point at which it becomes reasonable for them to get back into operation depending upon their industry or business and business model and how this thing dissipates.
In the next two to three weeks or so this will have to begin to loosen up and begin to right itself. If not, then let the lines at the bridges around the country begin to form.
Andrew_W,
You wrote: “ANice try, and to some extent you’re right, but:”
No “but” to it. Both of your points reinforce my statement.
Lee S,
You wrote: “The hubris of the USA is actually a source of humour… I might need to work a little on my diatribe, ( and thanks to all for pointing out factual inaccuracies… I want to remain truthful)…”
It is interesting (or humorous) that you interpret your own factual errors to be hubris on the part of the USA. You keep bragging that your system of government is a thousand years in the making, but ours is based upon a system tried two thousand years ago. Indeed, the earliest use of socialism that I can find is the Plymouth Colony, in America, four hundred years ago. It demonstrated that socialism does not work, and William Bradford’s journal explains why it does not work. Isn’t it hubris to insist that something that does not work actually does work, because you want it to work, despite centuries of evidence to the contrary?
You claim your country to be democratic, but until a century ago it had been a monarchy for a thousand years or so.
“although you are wrong regarding my point in the mix of accents…”
You had a point? I thought you merely cherry picked talking points from progressives and anti-American socialists in order to Obama us (knock us down a few pegs).
“If my stereotypical thoughts regarding the USA are so wrong, what does that say about your stereotypical thoughts regarding Sweden? … if I am really that far off the mark regarding US culture, doesn’t that imply that perhaps you a little off the mark regarding mine?”
What stereotypical points regarding Sweden? My points regard socialism, not culture.
Rose wrote: though I’m sure the practice will be denounced by the medical community.”
The medical community is looking pretty incompetent, these days. They give us a bogus reason to shut down the economy and admitting that they exaggerated the numbers in order to get us to react, and they were utterly unprepared for biological attack, especially in a city that tells everyone that it is a major target for terrorism. Now, we are so badly shut down that regular medical care is getting hard to come by. I am very disappointed with the medical community’s response to what is now looking too much like a regular flu (one which attacks the respiratory system, making it scarier) that looked worse only because the Chinese refused to do anything about it in the early days, and that when it finally became known to exist, everyone was given the impression that it is wildly contagious and extremely deadly.
What a cluster bleep.
Both of your points reinforce my statement.
Complete nonsense, shorter incubation times mean it’s sooner into a lock-down that the effects of that lock-down start to show up as a drop in symptomatic cases.
Ref: Fauci…. he’s a prime example of exactly why we shouldn’t allow un-elected technocrats to rule over us.
Andrew_W: “Complete nonsense,”
Not a very good try on your part. The official word is still two weeks, not a couple of days. The official word is still that the effects of lockdown will take at least three weeks to show. Whatever modeling you are doing to produce your predictions is clearly wrong.
The official word is still that the effects of lockdown will take at least three weeks to show.
No, 2 weeks for the slowest cases to go symptomatic. You’re still talking complete nonsense.
Andrew_W,
Oh! That explains why the experts are telling us that this week, the fourth week of the lockdown, is the worst week. The disease kicks in right away, then people linger for weeks and weeks before dying. That is slightly different than the current explanation of how the disease progresses, but you must know better, because you say that the data on the ground “talks” complete nonsense.
That explains why the experts are telling us that this week, the fourth week of the lockdown, is the worst week.
Actually it looks like NY is past the peak of new cases, which was a week ago, on the 4th April, obviously as the people that die don’t usually do so on the same day they’re diagnosed there’s a lag between diagnosis and death, if the diagnosis is initially made on the basis of symptoms (as appears to be common in NY) rather than antigen tests the diagnosis is going to be made after the patient is symptomatic, usually days after they become symptomatic. The evidence is that as a result the median day for deaths in NY is not more than a week after diagnosis.
The disease kicks in right away, then people linger for weeks and weeks before dying.
No one has said that, so, strawman.
Previously I thought the peak in US deaths would be this week, but I now think we’ve seen it in the last couple of days.
FWIW I think for the US at the moment only 25% of cases are being diagnosed, the case fatality rate to date across all infections is 1.5% and the median lag between diagnosis and death is 6 days. Using those parameters I get a good match between the diagnosed infection rate and deaths up to 6 days ahead, I expect 1800 – 2000 a day for the next few days.
I want to make a clarification to one of my posts:
“People say “We will wait for the vaccine”. Well guess what? AIDS is a virus and we have been waiting for a vaccine for that for the last 30 years? (Has it been that long?).”
This sentence should have read: ” People say “We will wait for the vaccine”. Well guess what? HIV is a virus and we have been waiting for a vaccine for that for the last 30 years? (Has it been that long?).”
To be accurate HIV is the virus that results in the condition of AIDS, my mistake.
Sweden doesn’t have ‘rights’ like the USA does. They have privileges.
They didn’t even have the simple right of free speech until the 1950’s I believe. And even now it still only a government granted privilege. And it has a few limits on subjects.
At any time the government can take everything they think is a right away and the people have no legal way to rise up and take them back. They would be criminals fighting against their nations own laws.
We in the USA would not be the criminals but the government would be by taking our rights away. We, by our own constitution are allowed to rise up and reform our government. Our rights are granted by God or our creator. Not granted by the government. And what is granted by God can only be taken by God.
For the non believers just Change the word God to nature.
Our rights are the very same rights granted by nature to all living creatures.
Andrew_W: “Actually it looks like NY is past the peak of new cases, which was a week ago”
If only I believed a word that comes out of these incredible people, anymore.
Andrew_W,
I looked up the numbers that you rely upon, and found that it was this current week, the week the experts predicted, that looks like it is the peak. If your facts were correct, then the deaths in New York would have been last week, or before, not this current week.
I meant to include the reference: https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/us/new-york-coronavirus-cases.html
To all,
The original reason to shelter in place (not lockdown or impose marshall law) was to prevent the hospitals from being overrun with COVID19 cases. This mission has been accomplished for the US, including New York City, which has many empty beds in the USS Comfort, a hospital built in Central Park, and other medical facilities. New York City has even sent respirators to other states, because it turns out they don’t need as many as they received.
It is now time to end this marshall law and let us get back to work, save our companies and jobs, resume receiving regular healthcare, live our lives, regain our liberty and freedom, and get back to the pursuit of happiness. Not next year, not next month, and not next week, but today. Right now.
Edward wrote, “The original reason to shelter in place (not lockdown or impose marshall law) was to prevent the hospitals from being overrun with COVID19 cases.”
I agree, but I need a source. I didn’t keep any of the links where this was stated. Can you or anyone provide?
Edward, I looked at your link, the graphic with a 7 day average they use is obviously not done how it should be done, the 7 day average as they do it is positioned on the graph 3.5 days late, the position giving the average of the previous 7 days, not the average of that day, the previous 3, and the next 3 (you can’t correctly show a rolling 7 day average up to the last day of available data).
The “Cases by county” graphic shows all counties with slowing case growth rates over the last 2 weeks.
From this source (which can be a little confusing as “The day is reset after midnight GMT+0”) the highest day for new cases was on the 4th April, the highest day for deaths was on the 10th April. I don’t now expect either of those peaks to be exceeded (though the weekend figures appear to be depressed below the trendline – probably due to information not moving towards release – on weekends which could see up-dating after Easter this Tuesday or Wednesday).
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/
I expect that the US including NY will not have a rapid decline in cases because, as the article you link to notes: “subway. . . ridership in poorer neighborhoods, where many must continue commuting to work, has not changed as dramatically. Overall, the city’s low-income neighborhoods have been hit the hardest by the pandemic.”
There’s going to be a lot of ‘leakage’ in the NY lockdown, reducing the rate in the decline in case numbers.
This is an interesting interview of a Dr. Shiva, MIT biologist, Republican, and is running for the Senate in Mass. Make of that what you will. Dr. Shiva is being interviewed by an interviewer that I do not particularly like but he goes into Dr. Fauci and the rest of the Trump advisors, the Globalist agenda, Bill Gates and the vaccinators. And either you believe in a Globalist agenda or you do not.
I happen to believe through evidence that I developed by listening to the words of established Globalist players that there certainly is a Globalist agenda, whether it is either overt or covert. And that agenda includes population reduction, mass vaccinations, RFID chipping of humans, a One World, U.N. type government entity. In other words the ultimate control over people and the acquisition of the power to enforce through law and government mandate. No thank you.
And in that model America and its Constitution is the one major stumbling block to its full manifestation and implementation. And if that were to be then it is the Communist Chinese that inherit the earth. Are you familiar with how the Communist Chinese tend to operate?
And these kinds of events like a bat soup virus pandemic is a prime facilitator of these kinds of agendas. The fear that something that is unseen and in the air and can kill you is a powerful motivator to incentivize people to rush to government to protect and shelter them. I say no to this also. Get over your own mortality and take the power back that you are willing to give away for some perception of security and safety.
https://youtu.be/GmD3EoSRgsI
Dr. Shiva brings out the point that most people dying are imuno compromised and he promotes “other” modes of dealing with the virus such as vitamin D and other modalities. And if you were to listen to other doctors of Indian decent they too will bring up nutrition and other similar modes of therapy.
I myself know several people who have tested positive for the virus, went through its symptoms, and lived to tell about it. I also know several others who were taken out by the virus, and I do not know any details about their health condition previous to their contracting the virus.
So you might want to listen to this interview and decide for yourself. Keeping in mind of course that it is Trump that has caused all of this. Well that is the narrative that the media machine is now underway pushing with everything they have got. The media is not you friend America.
pzatchok,
I think comparing the search for a COVID vaccine and an HIV vaccine is not a fair comparison.
HIV is an immune system disease. There is no indication that the Chinese Corona Virus attacks the immune system.
Also, (from Wikipedia, but its the simplest explanation:
HIV vaccines are hard because:
-Classic vaccines mimic natural immunity against reinfection as seen in individuals recovered from infection; there are almost no recovered AIDS patients.
-Most vaccines protect against disease, not against infection; HIV infection may remain latent for long periods before causing AIDS.
-Most effective vaccines are whole-killed or live-attenuated organisms; killed HIV-1 does not retain antigenicity and the use of a live retrovirus vaccine raises safety issues.
So far, there has been no indication that the CCV acts this way.
But your overall point, that the vaccines are not going to appear tomorrow, or even in the next weeks, are still valid. It will take an unknown amount of time.
Edward/Mr Z.
Minor correction. “not lockdown or impose marshall law”
Martial (as in military) law.
It has not actually happened yet. However, there are a few Governors and local Mayors that are pushing the limits.
For instance, the attempts to stop “drive in” church services, where people stay in their cars and listen via low power FM are certainly overreach. They are meeting the needs of social distancing. Those leaders are feeling thepush back, as they should.
Most of these “leaders” fall to one side of the isle. It is my opinion that people from that side of the isle generally want to think of population as stupid or incompetent.
And I forgot to include the Pope as one of the promoters of Globalism:
https://disrn.com/news/pope-francis-pushes-for-universal-basic-income
“I know that you have been excluded from the benefits of globalization,”
“This may be the time to consider a universal basic wage which would acknowledge and dignify the noble, essential tasks you carry out. It would ensure and concretely achieve the ideal, at once so human and so Christian, of no worker without rights,”
“I hope that this time of danger will free us from operating on automatic pilot, shake our sleepy consciences and allow a humanist and ecological conversion that puts an end to the idolatry of money and places human life and dignity at the center,”
Francis said. “Our civilization — so competitive, so individualistic, with its frenetic rhythms of production and consumption, its extravagant luxuries, its disproportionate profits for just a few — needs to downshift, take stock, and renew itself.”
Never forget the Pope.
Robert,
You asked: “I agree, but I need a source. I didn’t keep any of the links where this was stated. Can you or anyone provide?”
This is what my county said on March 16, the day they announced the lockdown:
https://www.sccgov.org/sites/opa/newsroom/Pages/covid-19-nonessential-services-close.aspx
And this is the directive:
https://www.sccgov.org/sites/phd/news/Pages/press-release-03-16-20.aspx
Notice that this came after a puny problem was observed, there was hardly a curve to flatten:
Clearly the authorities were driven to panic and overreacted to something that hardly looked like a problem at all — and turned out to not be a problem at all.
I have not heard anyone speak of this priority in quite some time. We are the victims of mission creep, going from the original mission of reducing hospital loads to saving lives to no one being at risk of contracting the virus — the advisers are telling us that we have to stay shut down until a vaccine is developed, 18 or 24 months from now.
We gave them an inch, and they are taking our livelihoods. Now, instead of being overwhelmed it looks like our hospitals and doctor offices are at great risk of insolvency — they are underwhelmed, and we are not receiving proper health care at all. What a cluster-bleep.
Welcome to Obama’s America, land of the formerly free.
I get angrier and angrier every day that we are stuck in this horrific situation and with each new revelation of how corrupt the advisors were when they recommended that the government turn tyrant. The numbers that they came up with showed that they were recommending an overreaction, but they lied anyway and inflated the numbers in order to drive this tyrannical reaction. The longer it takes for them to give us back our lives, the more likely it is that we will have a revolution, hopefully societal and not violent. For instance, there seemed to be more cars on the streets today than there were last week.
“Eternal vigilance is the price of liberty” — Thomas Jefferson (maybe)
We snoozed, we lost.
Edward: Thank you. Just what I wanted.