IHME lowers its death prediction for Wuhan virus again


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In what appears to be becoming an almost twice-weekly event, the scientists who created the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) model that the White House has been depending on to deal with the Wuhan flu epidemic have once again lowered their projected total deaths from COVID-19, from about 82,000 to 61,000.

Wednesday’s dramatic reverse in the model’s projection of U.S. deaths was made without a press release from IHME explaining the reasons for the reduction. It marks the second reduction in the model’s U.S. deaths projections since April 1, when it forecast 93,765 U.S. fatalities.

On April 5, the death projections were lowered to 81,766.

Our estimates assume statewide social distancing measures are continuing in states where they have already been enacted, and for those states without such measures in place, it is assumed they will be will be in place within seven days,” IHME director Christopher Murray said on April 5. [emphasis mine]

Murray’s highlighted statement above gives the impression that these new lower numbers are because of the imposed “social distancing measures.” This is a lie. All their predictions, even their highest, always included such measures. Thus, their earlier predictions were simply wrong, and very badly wrong.

In only a week they have dropped their prediction by one third.

I must add that this is the same model that has vastly over-estimated the number of hospitalizations that would occur, to the point of absurdity. Instead of having so many coronavirus patients that hospitals were overwhelmed, hospitals have had numerous empty beds, even in New York.

If the deaths from the Wuhan flu end up around 61,000, that number will match exactly the number of total deaths during the 2017-2018 flu season. Remember how we shut down the entire economy then too? I don’t.

I will also make a prediction. The final numbers will still be far lower than the 61,000 they are now predicting, even though there is clear evidence that many states are exaggerating the number of Wuhan flu deaths, probably in order to justify their panic that has shutdown the country and is bankrupting millions. In the end, even with these overstated numbers, the totals (including the flu) will I bet end up not much more than a somewhat bad flu season, but not one far different than 2017-2018, the worst in many years.

If the voters don’t fire a lot of politicians come November for this disgusting travesty, then we are surely doomed to bankruptcy and tyranny in future years.

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21 comments

  • Phill O

    Ah, but they will argue that the extreme measures took are the cause of the lower death rate. 60,000 is about the world death rate from rabies. I learned this from the Canadian government expert, back in 1998 when was handling a lot of skunks.

  • Wodun

    With everything shut down except a few businesses, people are all crowding in to just a few stores. The grocery stores have been packed. The social distancing guidelines have led grocers to close every other lane and this concentrates people in fewer liners and keeps them in close proximity to each other longer.

    You would expect the plague to spread easily in situations like this, especially a few weeks ago when the big rush hit.

  • Cotour

    Better to over estimate and under deliver here.

    None of those in government, previous or present, neither presidents, nor governors nor mayors were prepared for any of what has gone on. And at the apex is the master of panic, Bill DeBlasio, useless “Progressive” human. They were all warned of the potential and they all spent their precious capital on other more important things. What ever they were. And in the end, the solution? Just throw more other peoples money at it. And that is how things work as per usual, nothing much new to see here.

    Little by little this too will pass and we will adapt as we need to adapt and we will move into the future.

    https://apnews.com/fab319a90ead9aae057f7fab059c2ccb

    Incrementally the economy will reengage, and then we are going to have to deal with the Chinese in one way or another.

    So stay calm, don’t pick your nose, don’t rub your eyes, wash your hands, stay away from other humans for a while longer, and carry on.

  • Andrew_W

    Unfortunately 61,000 is too low, which is probably due to political pressure from the White House.

  • Cotour

    Wodun:

    What those who run those essential businesses need to do, for their customers benefit and there own is to manage how many people are allowed into the store and how long they have to get what they want / need (within reason of course).

    “NO DILLY DALLYING”

    Most people, 90 plus percent are conscious and are doing what needs to be done here. But there are others that need to be “guided”. If you need to limit how many people come into the store, then assess that need and do it. And the vast majority of people will follow your lead and be happy to cooperate. Most, but there are some that need that extra attention here and there. And it must be done with respect, but it is done firmly and without too much ambiguity.

    Someone has to run the show.

  • Considering that 87,984 have died already, per the Johns Hopkins tracker, all these figures are moot.

  • Andrew_W

    Considering that 87,984 have died already
    That’s globally, we’re talking about the US for now.

  • Cotour

    Nerds.

  • t-dub

    This is a must watch documentary, imho.

    A new documentary presented by The Epoch Times and the New Tang Dynasty television network (NTD) dives into the true origin of COVID-19.

    https://youtu.be/Le_rfTdayLs approx 55 min.

  • wayne

    t-dub–
    There is also a mini-documentary from Sky News Australia that is interesting.

  • Cotour

    T-dub:

    Excellent find, very informative, pretty much confirms my general assertions from what I have been able to find myself in different technical papers and other stories. Although I could have lived without the dramatic emotive back round music. That in itself is a psyops.

    I think it is plain and obvious that we are going to have to deal at some time in the not so distant future in a more aggressive manner with the Communist leadership of Chyna. Whether that be massive law suits that essentially bankrupt it and force the change that all on the planet need, or in “Other” ways that might be a bit more confrontational.

    Good find, I shared it with many of my friends.

  • t-dub

    Wayne – I’ll try to find it and check it out . . . Thanks!

    Cotour – Yes, dealing with China moving forward is going to be key. Do we take them to the Hague and charge them with crimes against humanity? Do we have the world file a class action lawsuit and sue them in the world court for reparations? Do we nationalize our national debt? (This would have to be done with the rest of the world saying yes or the dollar could suffer) maybe we consider isolating sanctions as well . . .

    China MUST be dealt with moving forward but what form that will take is a mystery to me right now.

    Glad you shared it with friends!!! I did not appreciate the dramatic music either, I had to turn off my sub-woofer . . .

  • wayne

    “Sky News Special Covid-19: Ground Zero”
    Sky News Australia
    April 5, 2020
    https://youtu.be/pKmUxSlOoUE
    25:52

  • Cotour

    Understanding of course that the Epoch Times is a more conservative leaning media project and that Gordon Chang has a distaste to say the least for the Communist Chinese, the piece is interesting in laying out that the virus existed within the lab and was not likely a function of the market. I personally like the reporting style of the Epoch Times.

    And so now there for me remains 3 questions to answer: 1. Was the virus being studied manipulated?, and 2. If it was then for what purpose?, and 3. Was the release an accident or a purposeful act? I think the natural vector at this point is the less likely route.

    A friend replied to me that “the method to engineer such an RNA virus does not exist.”. And from what was revealed in the piece the Chinese researcher may well have been able to modify / manipulate the virus and combine it with other components of other viruses. This is a very specialized area of study.

    And of course the Chinese leaderships actions to destroy evidence and cover it all up does not help their case at all, but it is their nature in such matters. We will continue to see where this goes. But the Chinese need a reinstruction of some sort. And we know that ambitious Communists like the Chinese leadership really only understands one thing, one “ultimate” thing.

  • All right, at the risk of being mercilessly mocked. I still harbor a doubt that there is a good apples to apples comparison being made when it is say:

    “If the deaths from the Wuhan flu end up around 61,000, that number will match exactly the number of total deaths
    during the 2017-2018 flu season. Remember how we shut down the entire economy then too? I don’t.”

    The point being that in 2017-18 the US didn’t shut down the economy and in 2020 we did and (presumably IF the prediction comes true) we ended up with 61,000 deaths EVEN with draconian measures.

    Doctors Birx and Fauci attribute that fact to our Whu-Flu being much more contagious than regular flu. The continuing reduction in mortality (100K-90K-80K-60K) is attributed (as Dr Birx said today) to the definition of full social distancing. At the inception, modelers felt that the population could only achieve ~50% effectiveness and our wonderful citizens are doing far more than the modelers thought they could achieve.

    So…..admitting that I too doubt that we can keep the shutdown going without catastrophic long term damage to our economy…..don’t we need to keep up the good work at least until the first wave is over and spend the months up to December in figuring how to be ready to react with the expected second wave?

  • Doubting Thomas: Your faith in the honesty and sincerity of these Washington bureaucrats is most endearing.

    The culture of Washington hates the culture of free America. They will do anything to kill it, as was obvious when I last visited Washington for a conference run by the Washington think tank that ended up very reluctantly publishing my policy paper Capitalism in Space.

    This Washington crowd has proven that it will do anything to maintain their power. They have demonstrated this fact most clearly in the past three years.

    They repeatedly lied, creating numerous fake slanders against Donald Trump and Brett Kavanaugh.

    They lied to create a fake Russian collusion investigation against Trump, again with no evidence.

    They then used more fake but different accusations to push for a fake impeachment, again with no evidence.

    They abused the power of the IRS to attack conservatives unjustly.

    They misused the FISA court to spy on Trump and his campaign, illegally, first to try to help Hillary Clinton win the election, then to try to overthrow Trump illegally after he won.

    They also used the FISA court to illegally spy on Americans, and used its power to prosecute some merely because they were part of the opposition.

    They have used their power in NOAA and NASA to tamper with climate data, to create the illusion that the climate is warming more than it is.

    I could go on. As I say, your faith in the honesty of these people is most endearing. After what we have seen for the past three years, you really believe their models, even though they come from the same academic community that has made it very clear it is totally dominated by liberal and leftist thought, and has also made it clear it hates Trump and the American people who voted for him? And has also made it clear that they will say almost any lie to defeat him?

    The adjustments in the models in the past week have revealed how fake those first models were, and how they were expressly designed to cause the panic we have seen, and the economic collapse. These people want the economy to fail. It will not only help them defeat Trump, it will harm the evil Americans they hate.

  • I should add that I am not mocking you. I am trying to wake people up. The intentions of our leaders in Washington and in state governments have nothing to do with helping ordinary Americans. Their goal is power, and they are manipulating this situation quite successfully to get it.

  • Andrew_W

    I’ve been working on a 7 day lag between diagnosis and death in the most affected states in America, arguably a longer lag would apply to states that have kept testing up with transmission rates and are getting far lower positive test rates than NY, NJ and Michigan.

    Looking at the trend in diagnosis US wide there was a steady increase in new cases from all the way through to the 4th April, after which there is a leveling off, so I expect the trend in death numbers to unfortunately continue to increase for another few days, based on the trend in diagnosis rates over the last week I expect deaths to increase to soon close to 3000 a day.

    From there I expect the slide in the numbers of deaths to be slower than the rate of increase that we’ve seen to the peak.

    Looking at all the numbers, and comparing to European countries that are a week ahead of the US in the trend (Italy, Spain, UK, Netherlands etc) I cannot see how the US is going to get out of this epidemic with as few as 61,000 deaths over the next 2 months, compared to the UK for example the US has seen very few deaths, but that I see as mostly a result of the far more rapid spread of the virus in the US – the US death rate is still catching up, when the death rate does finally plateau in about a week I think deaths will have reached 25,000, and that the slow rate of decline in deaths from there will see another 50,000 added to the toll by the end of June. That’s assuming that there will not be an extended plateau, raising numbers even further, as there has been in several other countries.

  • Rick

    Comparing CV19 deaths to flu deaths is impossible.
    Once they decided that anyone that does that tests positive counts as CV19, the numbers are artificial.

  • F16 Guy

    Robert: A brilliant summary to Doubting Thomas. Thanks

    Over the years I have come to this site daily for education on things of common interest. I have found during this virus “panic” that BTB has been far more accurate than any government “model”.
    Keep up the great work!

  • eddie willers

    Doubting Thomas

    You need to amp up your doubting.

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