Fourteen-year-old NASA satellite about to burn up uncontrolled in the atmosphere
Chicken Little rules again! After fourteen years, the orbit of one of NASA’s two Van Allen Probe satellites is about to decay, causing the 1,323 pound satellite to burn up uncontrolled in the atmosphere.
As of March 9, 2026, the U.S. Space Force predicted that the roughly 1,323-pound spacecraft will re-enter the atmosphere at approximately 7:45 p.m. EDT on March 10, 2026, with an uncertainty of +/- 24 hours. NASA expects most of the spacecraft to burn up as it travels through the atmosphere, but some components are expected to survive re-entry. The risk of harm coming to anyone on Earth is low — approximately 1 in 4,200.
As today is a very slow news day in space news, a lot of the mainstream press is highlighting this story, with the usual fear-mongering about how it could hit the Earth and cause terrible damage. And while it is certainly true that this satellite appears large enough for some pieces to reach the ground, the chances of those pieces causing any real harm is quite slim. In fact, I think NASA’s estimate of 1 in 4,200 to be far too high.
Mission engineers had initially estimated the orbit would decay in the 2030s, but that estimate was based on a prediction of a weak solar maximum. The Sun however was more active than predicted in the past decade, and that activity caused the Earth’s atmosphere to puff up, which in turn acted to accelerate the satellite’s orbital decay.
This incident once again shows us that there is money to be made in removing defunct satellites from orbit. NASA and ESA have both made it clear each would pay a company to do it. So have some private companies. Some of the orbital tug and robotic servicing companies have here an opportunity they need to grab.
On Christmas Eve 1968 three Americans became the first humans to visit another world. What they did to celebrate was unexpected and profound, and will be remembered throughout all human history. Genesis: the Story of Apollo 8, Robert Zimmerman's classic history of humanity's first journey to another world, tells that story, and it is now available as both an ebook and an audiobook, both with a foreword by Valerie Anders and a new introduction by Robert Zimmerman.
The print edition can be purchased at Amazon or from any other book seller. If you want an autographed copy the price is $60 for the hardback and $45 for the paperback, plus $8 shipping for each. Go here for purchasing details. The ebook is available everywhere for $5.99 (before discount) at amazon, or direct from my ebook publisher, ebookit. If you buy it from ebookit you don't support the big tech companies and the author gets a bigger cut much sooner.
The audiobook is also available at all these vendors, and is also free with a 30-day trial membership to Audible.
"Not simply about one mission, [Genesis] is also the history of America's quest for the moon... Zimmerman has done a masterful job of tying disparate events together into a solid account of one of America's greatest human triumphs."--San Antonio Express-News
Chicken Little rules again! After fourteen years, the orbit of one of NASA’s two Van Allen Probe satellites is about to decay, causing the 1,323 pound satellite to burn up uncontrolled in the atmosphere.
As of March 9, 2026, the U.S. Space Force predicted that the roughly 1,323-pound spacecraft will re-enter the atmosphere at approximately 7:45 p.m. EDT on March 10, 2026, with an uncertainty of +/- 24 hours. NASA expects most of the spacecraft to burn up as it travels through the atmosphere, but some components are expected to survive re-entry. The risk of harm coming to anyone on Earth is low — approximately 1 in 4,200.
As today is a very slow news day in space news, a lot of the mainstream press is highlighting this story, with the usual fear-mongering about how it could hit the Earth and cause terrible damage. And while it is certainly true that this satellite appears large enough for some pieces to reach the ground, the chances of those pieces causing any real harm is quite slim. In fact, I think NASA’s estimate of 1 in 4,200 to be far too high.
Mission engineers had initially estimated the orbit would decay in the 2030s, but that estimate was based on a prediction of a weak solar maximum. The Sun however was more active than predicted in the past decade, and that activity caused the Earth’s atmosphere to puff up, which in turn acted to accelerate the satellite’s orbital decay.
This incident once again shows us that there is money to be made in removing defunct satellites from orbit. NASA and ESA have both made it clear each would pay a company to do it. So have some private companies. Some of the orbital tug and robotic servicing companies have here an opportunity they need to grab.
On Christmas Eve 1968 three Americans became the first humans to visit another world. What they did to celebrate was unexpected and profound, and will be remembered throughout all human history. Genesis: the Story of Apollo 8, Robert Zimmerman's classic history of humanity's first journey to another world, tells that story, and it is now available as both an ebook and an audiobook, both with a foreword by Valerie Anders and a new introduction by Robert Zimmerman.
The print edition can be purchased at Amazon or from any other book seller. If you want an autographed copy the price is $60 for the hardback and $45 for the paperback, plus $8 shipping for each. Go here for purchasing details. The ebook is available everywhere for $5.99 (before discount) at amazon, or direct from my ebook publisher, ebookit. If you buy it from ebookit you don't support the big tech companies and the author gets a bigger cut much sooner.
The audiobook is also available at all these vendors, and is also free with a 30-day trial membership to Audible.
"Not simply about one mission, [Genesis] is also the history of America's quest for the moon... Zimmerman has done a masterful job of tying disparate events together into a solid account of one of America's greatest human triumphs."--San Antonio Express-News
general question;
What is considered a ‘stable’ orbit for the earth?
ah, here we go.
“The Remarkable Story of Chicken Little”
Boston : Degen, Estes & Co., No. 23 Cornhill
(published between 1865-1871)
https://archive.org/details/remarkablestoryo00bostiala
It would be fun to have parts end up in Walden Pond.
Atmosphere puffy? No wonder I feel heavier.
One story: two sides –
“NASA satellite launched during Obama Administration to deorbit after setting radiation endurance records”
“NASA satellite in uncontrolled reentry; agency blames Trump budget cuts”
It’s worth recalling that the second U.S. satellite launched (pre-Nasa, by the Navy)—identical to the one originally intended to be first (except the first Vanguard blew up): that is, (what was subsequently called) Vanguard I—is still in orbit today, orbital parameters 654 km by 3,969 km (perigee decayed about 4 km since its launch), expected to finally reenter around the year 2200.
Excuse me (misinterpreted my sources): Vanguard I’s perigee is unchanged; its apogee has now decayed some 144 km since launch, to a present height of 3,825 km.
wayne,
You asked: “What is considered a ‘stable’ orbit for the earth?”
What a good question.
I’m not sure that there is a stable orbit for the Earth. One might consider the Moon to be in a stable orbit, but the gravitational interaction with the Sun makes the Moon’s orbital plane change with time, which is why we do not get solar and lunar eclipses at specific times of the year. The Moon crosses the solar plane (the plane of the ecliptic, which is the plane containing the Earth’s orbit around the Sun) in different months, depending upon the wobble of the Moon’s orbital plane.
Despite the satellites staying in position, geostationary orbit (GEO) is likewise unstable. Those satellites have small stationkeeping thrusters that stop the natural north-south motion as the Sun and the Moon both gravitationally tug on them. Once again, the orbital planes of these satellites would naturally wobble in a way similar to the Moon’s wobbling plane, and the satellites in the graveyard orbit for GEO do exactly that. Because the Sun and the Moon are in different planes, there is probably no orbit that does not wobble.
Low Earth orbit (LEO) is unstable due to the drag induced by the atmosphere. The Sun and Moon interactions are probably minimal relative to the perturbations caused by the shape of the Earth. Mountains that jut up have an affect on changing the direction of a LEO satellite as the gravitational tug makes it turn to the left or right. The Earth’s overall shape is not quite spherical, as its rotation causes a slight (~3 mile) bulge at the equator, making the shape ever so slightly like an m&m or Reese’s Pieces. This bulge is like a mountain, pulling a satellite left or right, causing a wobble in the satellite’s orbital plane. It is why sun-synchronous orbits are possible.
America’s GPS satellites are in a much higher orbit, around 12,000 miles. There is no atmospheric drag at that altitude (or so little it doesn’t matter), and the shape of the Earth is less dramatic, although I once saw some code for GPS location calculations, and the perturbation calculation for this shape was included, so I guess it is dramatic enough when trying to calculate your position within a meter or so.
Or maybe my definition of “stable” is not what you meant.
I would submit that a working definition of ‘stable orbit’ is one with an acceptable variance for the time needed to do the work. Similar to a ‘stable approach’ for an aircraft. Just don’t let Spock touch the thrusters.