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New York falsely inflates COVID-19 death toll with no evidence

U.S. Wuhan virus deaths, as of April 14, 2020

Yesterday the nationwide death toll from the Wuhan virus suddenly jumped after several days of decline. The graph on the right, created using the numbers at this link, illustrates this. Until yesterday it clearly looked as if the epidemic was finally subsiding, and that the peak had occurred as expected several days ago.

Why the jump? Well it turns out the reason is because government officials in New York decided to add thousands of recent deaths to their total, based on no evidence of coronavirus, at all.

The city decided to add 3,700 people to its death tolls, who they “presumed” to have died from the virus, according to a report from The New York Times. The additions increased the death toll in the U.S. by 17%, according to the Times report, and included people who were suffering from symptoms of the virus, such as intense coughing and a fever.

The Times stated: “A limited number of tests have been available, and until now, only deaths where a person had tested positive were counted among those killed by the virus in New York.”

The report stated that Democratic New York City Mayor Bill de Blasio decided over the weekend to change the way the city is counting deaths.

In other words, de Blasio is falsely inflating the numbers. And I can guess why. The drop during the past few days indicated that this manufactured crisis was beginning to end. That cannot be tolerated, as these government officials are still in the process of cementing their totalitarian control over their citizens. More time is needed! Let’s balloon the totals to magnify the crisis beyond reality!

The symptoms described could easily apply just as much to the flu. Moreover, just because someone has a cough or fever does not mean this is what killed them. They don’t say, but I bet some of those individuals clearly died from other causes.

This is fraud and corruption at its worst.

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  • Phill O

    No surprise here!

  • Rose

    The drop during the past few days indicated that this manufactured crisis was beginning to end.

    Weekend dips in death count (due to reporting issues) with a surge the following Tuesday have been a regular feature of the data, as is evident in the chart you included. (See those five high squares between the two dips, and the five earlier steadily increasing ones which follow the earlier jump.)

  • Rose

    Bob, if your thesis is that the 58.6% increase in the US reported daily death rate from Monday to Tuesday (from 1450 to 2299) is due to a change in NYC reporting, then it appears to be well wide of the mark (assuming that your linked dataset is accurate).

    Their State by State data show that New York’s daily figures increased by only 15.9% (from 671 to 778) over the same period, while that for the rest of the US increased by 95.3% (from 779 to1521)!

    It seems the spike is not due to New York, but is despite New York’s improving numbers and due to a spike elsewhere in the country.

    Here is my data from so someone can check my math:

    US total deaths as reported on Sun, Mon, Tue:
    21919, 23369, 25668
    NY total deaths as reported on Sun, Mon, Tue:
    9385, 10056, 10834
    US\NY total deaths calculated for Sun, Mon, Tue:
    12534, 13313, 14834

    US daily deaths calculated for Mon, Tue:
    1450, 2299 (+58.6%)
    NY daily deaths calculated for Mon, Tue:
    671, 778 (+15.9%)
    US\NY daily deaths calculated for Mon, Tue:
    779, 1521 (+95.3%)

  • Rose: You could very well be correct, and this spike has nothing to do with New York’s attempt to inflate the death toll numbers falsely. If so, when those numbers get added we will then have an even greater spike, created by a manipulation of the numbers for political reasons.

    At the same time, note this study: Israeli Professor Shows Virus Follows Fixed Pattern

    Professor Yitzhak Ben Israel of Tel Aviv University, who also serves on the research and development advisory board for Teva Pharmaceutical Industries, plotted the rates of new coronavirus infections of the U.S., U.K., Sweden, Italy, Israel, Switzerland, France, Germany, and Spain. The numbers told a shocking story: irrespective of whether the country quarantined like Israel, or went about business as usual like Sweden, coronavirus peaked and subsided in the exact same way. In the exact, same, way. His graphs show that all countries experienced seemingly identical coronavirus infection patterns, with the number of infected peaking in the sixth week and rapidly subsiding by the eighth week.

    The Wuhan Virus follows its own pattern, he told Mako, an Israeli news agency. It is a fixed pattern that is not dependent on freedom or quarantine. “There is a decline in the number of infections even [in countries] without closures, and it is similar to the countries with closures,” he wrote in his paper. [emphasis in original]

    If this analysis is right, we are now in the sixth of an eight week pattern. The peak should be now, with deaths declining thereafter.

  • Rose

    Wednesday’s figures are in, with the following daily death tolls:
    US: 2492 (+8.4% from Tue)
    NY: 752 (-3.3% from Tue)
    US\NY: 1740 (+14.4% from Tue)

    NY *may* have flattened out, but Wednesday figures often seem a bit low in comparison to Tuesday’s, given’s Tuesday’s inflation from late weekend data, so caution is in order.

  • Andrew_W

    or went about business as usual like Sweden, coronavirus peaked and subsided in the exact same way. In the exact, same, way.

    Except all of those countries have done a lock-down except Sweden, and while the new case numbers in Sweden have flattened, they certainly have not seen a falloff as has been seen in the all of the other countries mentioned.

    Also those countries that went into lock-down earlier have had a commensurate flattening or down-turn in case numbers, taking California as an example, they when into lock-down early in terms of the extent of the local infection rates and the numbers remain low, NY went into lock-down late in terms of the extent of the local infection rates and the numbers were much higher, Australia and NZ went into lock-down early in terms of the extent of the local infection rates and the numbers remain low, Italy had much higher infection rates when they went into lock-down and the numbers were much higher.

    Obviously there are differences in local factors that muddy things; population densities, smoking rates, cultural factors, but I can point out that Sweden, Norway Australia and NZ have broadly similar characteristics in such things, Australia and NZ got off the mark earliest (in terms of local spread), then Norway, with Sweden remaining fairly casual in dealing with the virus – and subsequent infection and death rates reflect those differences in policy.

    As an aside the different approach the Swedes have adopted is very noticeable in their reporting of numbers throughout the week: 5 days with big numbers, 2 quiet day, 5 days with big numbers, 2 quiet days etc.

  • Andrew_W

    I had a look at that Israeli Professors “study” it’s rubbish, using the usual weekend down-turn in Swedish numbers on the weekend of the 5th & 6th April (weekend numbers being released on the Sunday and Monday) to manufacture the rubbish claim. Those weekend numbers constituting the entirely of the “evidence” WRT Sweden.

  • Brian

    It seems that the reclassification of deaths in New York might relate to a tie to federal money. Whether this is of a nefarious nature that’s for someone else to determine. I remember reading a couple days ago don’t remember where, that Hospital systems get more federal money if deaths are classified as Covid-19 deaths.

  • Andrew _W

    China a while back had a day on which their numbers had a sudden increase in one day due to cases previously not included, France had the same a few days ago because Covid deaths in rest homes hadn’t been included, Britain’s death toll currently includes only deaths in hospitals, rest homes and deaths at home are not included.

    In New Zealand we’ve been including “probable” cases, cases throughout the community that are symptomatic but without a positive test, the opinions on diagnosis I’ve seen are that lung x-rays are easily distinguished from flu and other respiratory conditions. So I’m betting that deaths attributed to covid in most countries are still far below actual deaths if a positive test result is required to qualify officially.

  • Robert, most (if not all) of the large jump at the end of the plot is likely due to a weekend effect of the reporting. I’ve been analyzing the data for several weeks now and have plots on my Tableau Public home page here:!/

    The Confirmed Cases and Deaths from the weekends seem to be under counted and added to the following days.
    There is already an apparent delay of a day or two between the time these events are first recorded and the time they are reported, so under count bump might not show up as a bump until Tuesday or Wednesday. The phenomenon seems to have to both states and countries.

    Whether or not deaths are being appropriate counted is a separate issue.

  • Rose

    Here is a CovidTrends link to the top 9 states which haven’t yet made the turn. Together, their increasing rates more than outweigh NY’s decreasing rate.

  • Max

    As I was reading this article, a woman on local morning talk show explain that her aunt just died in New York of pancreatic cancer. She did not have a cold.
    The death certificate read that she died of suspected coronavirus 19.
    The family contacted the doctor to explain. He said; all deaths are one of two choices in New York. Coronavirus, verified by test, all others are suspected coronavirus, even traffic accidents.
    The family hired a lawyer. They don’t wanna be caught up in a fraud.

  • Cotour

    That fraud, if true, and who would doubt it, by the state of NY would be solely about $$$$$$$$$$ and at some level being reimbursed by the federal government for $$$$$$$$ spent.

    And this will extend to the Chinese Communists after the 20 year law suit that will certainly be brought against them. And the legal system when you think about it, potential military / nuclear warfare aside, is going to be the most effective manner in which to deal with the Chinese.

    You want to be accepted in the civilized world community? Then you will be sued in an international court and / or your assets will be frozen until a compensation is arrived at. NYS is just fooling / pumping the metrics to be recompensed for their capital expenditures.

    That is where this thing will be going IMO. If not, then what? A hot war? (That may come later)

  • Max

    Apparently others are worried about this fraud, they’re keeping track of it on social media. Here’s an example.

  • Rose

    That bump *still* does not appear to have been rolled into the dataset. As explained above, the Tuesday spike of 2,299 shown in the graph at the top of this post is due to increasing death rate reports from outside New York, and *despite* decreases from NY.

    But those additional deaths do now appear to have been rolled into the page, and all added on Tuesday, which brings their spike to 6,185.

    (FWIW, my gut feeling (from a synthesis of the various articles I’ve read) is that NYC had been significantly underreporting deaths, and the changed methodology was warranted.)

  • Col Beausabre

    A week or so ago Bob the Zee posted about an inexplicable decline in deaths from ordinary flu. I posited that the cause was that deaths from ordinary flu were being misdiagnosed as due to Wuhan Flu decreasing one and inflating the other. This report seems to bear that out – except rather than difficulty in diagnosis, it seems to be driven by cynical politics (‘Look at the number of deaths due to Trump!”). What we need is to see a combined figure for ordinary and Wuhan Flu and how that compares with 2018-19 deaths due to (presumably only) ordinary flu.

  • Andrew_W

    A week or so ago Bob the Zee posted about an inexplicable decline in deaths from ordinary flu.
    Pretty sure that’s happening everywhere measures are being taken to combat Covid as those measures are effective against flu transmission also. 2 – 3 weeks ago over here there were people with flu-like symptoms being declined Covid testing because they didn’t qualify, now we’re capable of testing 10,000 a day but only doing half that number because the rise in the number of people with flu symptoms, expected at this time of year, has just stopped dead.

  • Andrew_W

    The incubation period of the flu is usually between one and four days.

    Much shorter than the incubation period of Covid, so the drop in cases in response to measures taken that would inhibit the spread of both diseases would show up as a reduction in the number of cases of flu first.

  • Andrew-Winter

    Well the CDC is at it again. They used to publish a chart showing cases by “onset of Illness: on this page: That chart is gone, apparently moved. That was the chart where you could actually see the bell curve being manipulated by the changes in “reporting”. This information has been moved to here:

    Here is the CDCs “excuses” for inflating the numbers. Found here:

    “About the Data on This Page

    1. State and local public health departments are now testing and publicly reporting their cases. In the event of a discrepancy between CDC cases and cases reported by state and local public health officials, data reported by states should be considered the most up to date.

    2. As of April 14, 2020, CDC case counts and death counts include both confirmed and probable cases and deaths. This change was made to reflect an interim COVID-19 position statementpdf iconexternal icon issued by the Council for State and Territorial Epidemiologists on April 5, 2020. The position statement included a case definition and made COVID-19 a nationally notifiable disease.

    A confirmed case or death is defined by meeting confirmatory laboratory evidence for COVID-19. A probable case or death is defined by i) meeting clinical criteria AND epidemiologic evidence with no confirmatory laboratory testing performed for COVID-19; or ii) meeting presumptive laboratory evidence AND either clinical criteria OR epidemiologic evidence; or iii) meeting vital records criteria with no confirmatory laboratory testing performed for COVID19.

    3. Self-reported by health department characterizing the level of community transmission in their jurisdiction as: “Yes, widespread” (defined as: widespread community transmission across several geographical areas); “Yes, defined area(s)” (defined as: distinct clusters of cases in a, or a few, defined geographical area(s)); “Undetermined” (defined as: 1 or more cases but not classified as “Yes” to community transmission); or “N/A” (defined as: no cases).

    4. Case notifications were received by CDC from U.S. public health jurisdictions and the National Notifiable Diseases Surveillance System (NNDSS).”

    I am done. I am now willing to believe any conspiracy theorist who says that this entire thing from that weird announcement of an upcoming plague made by Fauci two years ago to the present who claims that this entire thing, from beginning to end, is nothing more than Political Theater. This farce has cemented in my mind that the Deep State needs to go.

    There should not be any career path at all in government service. The entire GS System and it’s “union/s” needs to be scrapped. These “professional” “career” civil servants no longer serve the civitas. They serve themselves, and they need to go. Every Single One Of Them. I will vote for Trump on the mere HOPE that he will do something to these leeches and parasites. He could start with a stroke of the pen and rescind this executive order.

    What the Executive Order Giveth. The Executive Order Can Taketh Away. I am pretty sure he may not know that he has the power to kill the unionized civil service workers of the world with the stroke of a pen. If I were president this would be the first thing I did, rescind this train wreck, and set “term limits” on all civil service jobs. Maybe even in the military too.

    (I am very likely over reacting to the military thing, but it bares thinking about.)

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