October 31, 2022 Quick space links
Courtesy of BtB’s string Jay, who has been sending them to me for the past week. Unfortunately, my isp decided to only send me about half my emails during that time, and I only discovered this today. Ugh, modern big corporations. They operate like badly run feudal plantations.
Thus, tonight’s quick links will catch up on some stories we missed from late last week.
- Airbus begins testing of the Orion service module for Artemis-2, the mission that NASA claims will land humans on the Moon
I honestly fear that mission, since I have no faith in SLS, even if the first unmanned test flight works perfectly. To put humans on it and send them to the Moon seems frightfully unsound.
- On next Atlas-5 launch, ULA will test inflatable heat shield designed to bring its Vulcan 1st stage engines safely back to Earth
The launch is now set for November 9th. More information about the heat shield test here.
In general this seems far too complex and expensive, especially since SpaceX has demonstrated on more than a hundred 1st stage returns that if the speed is properly controlled the engine does not need a heat shield to protect it.
- Japan delays by one year, to ’24, the launch of an upgraded HTX unmanned cargo freighter
The HTV-X is to be launched on Japan’s new H3 rocket, which has also experienced delays and is yet to fly.
This image compares the HTV-X with the older HTV. The X is actually smaller, but it has larger solar panels.
- China completes manufacture of the 4m primary mirror to be used on its Hubble-class orbiting optical telescope, planned for launch in ’24.
If this works as planned, the telescope will fly in formation with the Tiangong-3 station, from which astronauts will periodically fly maintenance missions. At four meters diameter, this telescope is significantly larger than Hubble’s 2.4 meter primary mirror, and will thus be more capable.
- Blue Origin delivers second BE-4 flightworthy engine to ULA
ULA can now install the engines in the first Vulcan rocket and begin testing. Whether it will be ready for its first flight early next year remains unknown. It is even more uncertain whether Blue Origin can ramp up its BE-4 assembly line so as to produce enough of these engines for all of the planned launches of the Vulcan as well as Blue Origin’s own as-yet-unflown New Glenn rocket.
Readers!
Please consider supporting my work here at Behind the Black. Your support allows me the freedom and ability to analyze objectively the ongoing renaissance in space, as well as the cultural changes -- for good or ill -- that are happening across America. Fourteen years ago I wrote that SLS and Orion were a bad ideas, a waste of money, would be years behind schedule, and better replaced by commercial private enterprise. Only now does it appear that Washington might finally recognize this reality.
In 2020 when the world panicked over COVID I wrote that the panic was unnecessary, that the virus was apparently simply a variation of the flu, that masks were not simply pointless but if worn incorrectly were a health threat, that the lockdowns were a disaster and did nothing to stop the spread of COVID. Only in the past year have some of our so-called experts in the health field have begun to recognize these facts.
Your help allows me to do this kind of intelligent analysis. I take no advertising or sponsors, so my reporting isn't influenced by donations by established space or drug companies. Instead, I rely entirely on donations and subscriptions from my readers, which gives me the freedom to write what I think, unencumbered by outside influences.
You can support me either by giving a one-time contribution or a regular subscription. There are four ways of doing so:
1. Zelle: This is the only internet method that charges no fees. All you have to do is use the Zelle link at your internet bank and give my name and email address (zimmerman at nasw dot org). What you donate is what I get.
2. Patreon: Go to my website there and pick one of five monthly subscription amounts, or by making a one-time donation.
3. A Paypal Donation or subscription:
4. Donate by check, payable to Robert Zimmerman and mailed to
Behind The Black
c/o Robert Zimmerman
P.O.Box 1262
Cortaro, AZ 85652
You can also support me by buying one of my books, as noted in the boxes interspersed throughout the webpage or shown in the menu above.
Courtesy of BtB’s string Jay, who has been sending them to me for the past week. Unfortunately, my isp decided to only send me about half my emails during that time, and I only discovered this today. Ugh, modern big corporations. They operate like badly run feudal plantations.
Thus, tonight’s quick links will catch up on some stories we missed from late last week.
- Airbus begins testing of the Orion service module for Artemis-2, the mission that NASA claims will land humans on the Moon
I honestly fear that mission, since I have no faith in SLS, even if the first unmanned test flight works perfectly. To put humans on it and send them to the Moon seems frightfully unsound.
- On next Atlas-5 launch, ULA will test inflatable heat shield designed to bring its Vulcan 1st stage engines safely back to Earth
The launch is now set for November 9th. More information about the heat shield test here.
In general this seems far too complex and expensive, especially since SpaceX has demonstrated on more than a hundred 1st stage returns that if the speed is properly controlled the engine does not need a heat shield to protect it.
- Japan delays by one year, to ’24, the launch of an upgraded HTX unmanned cargo freighter
The HTV-X is to be launched on Japan’s new H3 rocket, which has also experienced delays and is yet to fly.
This image compares the HTV-X with the older HTV. The X is actually smaller, but it has larger solar panels.
- China completes manufacture of the 4m primary mirror to be used on its Hubble-class orbiting optical telescope, planned for launch in ’24.
If this works as planned, the telescope will fly in formation with the Tiangong-3 station, from which astronauts will periodically fly maintenance missions. At four meters diameter, this telescope is significantly larger than Hubble’s 2.4 meter primary mirror, and will thus be more capable.
- Blue Origin delivers second BE-4 flightworthy engine to ULA
ULA can now install the engines in the first Vulcan rocket and begin testing. Whether it will be ready for its first flight early next year remains unknown. It is even more uncertain whether Blue Origin can ramp up its BE-4 assembly line so as to produce enough of these engines for all of the planned launches of the Vulcan as well as Blue Origin’s own as-yet-unflown New Glenn rocket.
Readers!
Please consider supporting my work here at Behind the Black. Your support allows me the freedom and ability to analyze objectively the ongoing renaissance in space, as well as the cultural changes -- for good or ill -- that are happening across America. Fourteen years ago I wrote that SLS and Orion were a bad ideas, a waste of money, would be years behind schedule, and better replaced by commercial private enterprise. Only now does it appear that Washington might finally recognize this reality.
In 2020 when the world panicked over COVID I wrote that the panic was unnecessary, that the virus was apparently simply a variation of the flu, that masks were not simply pointless but if worn incorrectly were a health threat, that the lockdowns were a disaster and did nothing to stop the spread of COVID. Only in the past year have some of our so-called experts in the health field have begun to recognize these facts.
Your help allows me to do this kind of intelligent analysis. I take no advertising or sponsors, so my reporting isn't influenced by donations by established space or drug companies. Instead, I rely entirely on donations and subscriptions from my readers, which gives me the freedom to write what I think, unencumbered by outside influences.
You can support me either by giving a one-time contribution or a regular subscription. There are four ways of doing so:
1. Zelle: This is the only internet method that charges no fees. All you have to do is use the Zelle link at your internet bank and give my name and email address (zimmerman at nasw dot org). What you donate is what I get.
2. Patreon: Go to my website there and pick one of five monthly subscription amounts, or by making a one-time donation.
3. A Paypal Donation or subscription:
4. Donate by check, payable to Robert Zimmerman and mailed to
Behind The Black
c/o Robert Zimmerman
P.O.Box 1262
Cortaro, AZ 85652
You can also support me by buying one of my books, as noted in the boxes interspersed throughout the webpage or shown in the menu above.
It appears China is positioning themselves to be *the* astronomy destination for decades to come.
I got a look, but did not get to keep or copy, a document a couple of years ago that was a very good technical insight into why Vulcan has to do the parachute the engines thing instead of a propulsive landing. Falcon 9 is a very unusual design in terms of the stage balance, the first stage burn ends at a much lower altitude and speed than is normally designed for. And while it’s easy to just say “well, they should have designed Vulcan that way”, it had huge impacts on the design of the second stage, which in the case of Falcon has a much higher thrust, mass, etc than Centaur. If they tried to start using the Centaur stage in the same regime as a Falcon upper, they’d basically have to give up on their larger fairing options, a fair amount of potential payload mass, and the really high-energy interplanetary launch profiles where Centaur is undeniably better than Falcon.
The limited publicly available data suggests that New Glenn will be somewhere in between, with the first stage coming back from a higher and faster point than Falcon 9, possibly even higher and faster than a Falcon Heavy core, and of course SpaceX hasn’t succeeded at that yet.
If this is a general-space-news open thread, then so far the Falcon Heavy has done an excellent launch. Main stage on its way up to GEO.
To add a larger picture to David Eastman’s comment: I like the idea of having multiple technologies for slowing cargo to a destination planet through an atmosphere. In this case, the cargo uses less propellant.
As Mr Eastman notes, as a first-stage retrieval process, it’s used comparable loads of propellant to get that far up in the first place, so it’s a wash. I like this idea for other purposes.
David Eastman wrote: “The limited publicly available data suggests that New Glenn will be somewhere in between, with the first stage coming back from a higher and faster point than Falcon 9, possibly even higher and faster than a Falcon Heavy core, and of course SpaceX hasn’t succeeded at that yet.”
The tradeoffs that SpaceX has made allow competitors to be able to improve on SpaceX’s achievements. Each company can make their own decisions for their own tradeoffs and compromises, based upon their own priorities. SpaceX showed the world that the price tag for getting to orbit is a major factor for many customers, and several launch providers have already responded. These lower prices are allowing more and more customers to increase the demand for launch services, and Robert continually notes this increase in his (not yet daily) launch reports.
OldSpace, such as ULA, had focused on performance: the amount of mass that went to orbit. NewSpace responded to customer needs and is bringing down the price to orbit. The former was technical excellence, and the latter is economic excellence.
David E.,
FTR, Space X successfully landed 1 of 3 FH cores but one went overboard in rough seas. A functioning FH modified Octograbber would probably have saved this booster.
Some light payload F9s have maxed out at like 8,500 km/h and were successfully recovered. Heavy payload Starlink F9 launches only get to about 6,500 km/h. IIRC FH cores are also in this velocity neighborhood but w/ much higher payloads. This latest FH topped out at 14,200 km/h and I believe is the fastest Falcon 9 yet. No way this one is coming back w/o melting. :-)
I agree that the expendable high thrust Falcon 2nd stages are the tradeoff to being able to recover relatively lower velocity F9 stage 1’s and is probably why Vulcan will need to use SMART for partial booster recovery.
Great flight regardless.
I was thinking the engines are the expensive part. Making tanks is easy.
I am guessing they figure it is easier to recover a smaller package?
Will be interesting to see how well it works.
Tory Bruno said that the rationale for the inflatable heat shield is to recover the engines which are 60% of the total cost of the booster system.
About SLS safety worries, made me recall deaths by major Nasa program.
X-15 : 1,
Apollo : 3,
STS : 14.
George C,
Your progression comes close to the equation (N^N)*(2/N). This still seems close when considering that the loss of a single Starship could result in 100 lost lives and N=4 results in the number 128.