SpaceX CEO: Starship could launch as early as June
Capitalism in space: SpaceX’s CEO and president Gwynne Shotwell revealed today that Starship could be ready for its orbital test flight from Boca Chica as early as June, though government regulatory obstacles make that launch more likely three to six months from now.
It appears that the delays in getting FAA approval for launch have not been the only issues that have delayed that first launch attempt. Though SpaceX would have likely tried a launch months ago with earlier prototypes had the approval arrived as originally promised, that launch would have likely failed based on ground tests the company has been doing during the delay.
When Musk tweeted his “hopefully May” estimate, SpaceX was nowhere close to finishing the Starship – Ship 24 – that is believed to have been assigned to the orbital launch debut. However, SpaceX finally accelerated Ship 24 assembly within the last few weeks and ultimately finished stacking the upgraded Starship on May 8th. A great deal of work remains to truly complete Ship 24, but SpaceX should be ready to send it to a test stand within a week or two. Even though the testing Ship 24 will need to complete has been done before by Ship 20, making its path forward less risky than Booster 7’s, Ship 24 will debut a number of major design changes and likely needs at least two months of testing to reach a basic level of flight readiness.
A more likely launch date is probably late July at the earliest, though of course that will also depend on the government’s approval, something that presently appears difficult to get.
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Capitalism in space: SpaceX’s CEO and president Gwynne Shotwell revealed today that Starship could be ready for its orbital test flight from Boca Chica as early as June, though government regulatory obstacles make that launch more likely three to six months from now.
It appears that the delays in getting FAA approval for launch have not been the only issues that have delayed that first launch attempt. Though SpaceX would have likely tried a launch months ago with earlier prototypes had the approval arrived as originally promised, that launch would have likely failed based on ground tests the company has been doing during the delay.
When Musk tweeted his “hopefully May” estimate, SpaceX was nowhere close to finishing the Starship – Ship 24 – that is believed to have been assigned to the orbital launch debut. However, SpaceX finally accelerated Ship 24 assembly within the last few weeks and ultimately finished stacking the upgraded Starship on May 8th. A great deal of work remains to truly complete Ship 24, but SpaceX should be ready to send it to a test stand within a week or two. Even though the testing Ship 24 will need to complete has been done before by Ship 20, making its path forward less risky than Booster 7’s, Ship 24 will debut a number of major design changes and likely needs at least two months of testing to reach a basic level of flight readiness.
A more likely launch date is probably late July at the earliest, though of course that will also depend on the government’s approval, something that presently appears difficult to get.
The support of my readers through the years has given me the freedom and ability to analyze objectively the ongoing renaissance in space, as well as the cultural changes -- for good or ill -- that are happening across America. Four years ago, just before the 2020 election I wrote that Joe Biden's mental health was suspect. Only in this year has the propaganda mainstream media decided to recognize that basic fact.
Fourteen years ago I wrote that SLS and Orion were a bad ideas, a waste of money, would be years behind schedule, and better replaced by commercial private enterprise. Even today NASA and Congress refuse to recognize this reality.
In 2020 when the world panicked over COVID I wrote that the panic was unnecessary, that the virus was apparently simply a variation of the flu, that masks were not simply pointless but if worn incorrectly were a health threat, that the lockdowns were a disaster and did nothing to stop the spread of COVID. Only in the past year have some of our so-called experts in the health field have begun to recognize these facts.
Your help allows me to do this kind of intelligent analysis. I take no advertising or sponsors, so my reporting isn't influenced by donations by established space or drug companies. Instead, I rely entirely on donations and subscriptions from my readers, which gives me the freedom to write what I think, unencumbered by outside influences.
Please consider supporting my work here at Behind the Black.
You can support me either by giving a one-time contribution or a regular subscription. There are five ways of doing so:
1. Zelle: This is the only internet method that charges no fees. All you have to do is use the Zelle link at your internet bank and give my name and email address (zimmerman at nasw dot org). What you donate is what I get.
2. Patreon: Go to my website there and pick one of five monthly subscription amounts, or by making a one-time donation.
3. A Paypal Donation:
5. Donate by check, payable to Robert Zimmerman and mailed to
Behind The Black
c/o Robert Zimmerman
P.O.Box 1262
Cortaro, AZ 85652
You can also support me by buying one of my books, as noted in the boxes interspersed throughout the webpage or shown in the menu above. And if you buy the books through the ebookit links, I get a larger cut and I get it sooner.
The concerning part was that on Booster 7, they collapsed the transfer tube from the upper tank to the engines, due to some mistake in procedure during detanking. (Current theory). Like a straw, when you block one end and pull air out, it collapsed, stainless steel just being a bit stiffer than plastic, it took more of apressure drop.
But they seem to have fixed it, which is impressive, since b7 was back on the launch stand for further tests. Within days. That is impressive.
But Booster 7s current state is a potential issue. B8 is coming along quickly though…
Good article on the problem and the seeming fix.
https://www.teslarati.com/spacex-super-heavy-booster-b7-completes-repairs/
Has pics of the collapsed tube.
Here’s a video of a railroad tank car imploding when suction was applied to the tank outlet without the manway’s valve also being open
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Zz95_VvTxZM
A very interesting article. The tweet from Michael Baylor tells us that despite SpaceX expressing interest in April of 2021 that they would like to launch as early as July, the bureaucracy waited until 25 June to begin the permitting process. My recollection is that before the October meeting for public input for the environmental review, the FAA thought that they would have their final report at the end of November, and that after the public input they extended that timeline to the end of December. As the release date approached, they began a month for month slip in their expected release date. Their current schedule is for the end of this month, but history suggests that this will continue to slip. SpaceX seems to be operating as though they will finally start getting their permissions to launch from Texas.
Would the spotted owl — er rather the plower piper-cub bird — no, it’s the piping plover — become extinct if Starship-Super Heavy blew up on or near the Boca Chica pad? Obviously the bureaucracy thinks so, and maybe they think that it will happen just by roaring into space. Fortunately the humans in the same regions throughout the gulf coast and up half the Eastern Seaboard are deemed, by these same bureaucrats, relatively safe. A close shave for humanity.
How many months does it take for the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service to add in a requirement that someone, such as SpaceX, keep tabs on the local piping plover population to determine the effect of Starship launches? Oh, wait, we have a partial answer: at least five! It takes five months for the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service to write one sentence. Ah, the intelligence of the bureaucrats. One would think that they had never worked on an environmental report before.
Super Heavy-Starship weighs-in at about 11 million pounds (almost twice the Saturn V-Apollo weight). Taking 100 tons (200,000 lbs) of payload to orbit means it delivers 2% of its initial weight, half of the percentage of a Saturn V (but at much, much less cost per ton). Single stage to orbit is supposed to be 1% or less, but can that be done for less cost per ton than a Starship?
From the article:
A difference between NASA’s SLS project and SpaceX’s Starship project is that SpaceX sets challenge goals. Not impossible but difficult to accomplish. Slips in schedule are common in aerospace development, but SpaceX tries to make progress despite those slips. Right now those slips are not due to technical issues but due to outside issues, in this case political issues.
I think a couple of Raptor 2s blew up recently. Test to destruction. More honest than cover-ups.
Fail often
Fail fast
Fail forward