SpaceX CEO: Starship could launch as early as June
Capitalism in space: SpaceX’s CEO and president Gwynne Shotwell revealed today that Starship could be ready for its orbital test flight from Boca Chica as early as June, though government regulatory obstacles make that launch more likely three to six months from now.
It appears that the delays in getting FAA approval for launch have not been the only issues that have delayed that first launch attempt. Though SpaceX would have likely tried a launch months ago with earlier prototypes had the approval arrived as originally promised, that launch would have likely failed based on ground tests the company has been doing during the delay.
When Musk tweeted his “hopefully May” estimate, SpaceX was nowhere close to finishing the Starship – Ship 24 – that is believed to have been assigned to the orbital launch debut. However, SpaceX finally accelerated Ship 24 assembly within the last few weeks and ultimately finished stacking the upgraded Starship on May 8th. A great deal of work remains to truly complete Ship 24, but SpaceX should be ready to send it to a test stand within a week or two. Even though the testing Ship 24 will need to complete has been done before by Ship 20, making its path forward less risky than Booster 7’s, Ship 24 will debut a number of major design changes and likely needs at least two months of testing to reach a basic level of flight readiness.
A more likely launch date is probably late July at the earliest, though of course that will also depend on the government’s approval, something that presently appears difficult to get.
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The audiobook is also available at all these vendors, and is also free with a 30-day trial membership to Audible.
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Capitalism in space: SpaceX’s CEO and president Gwynne Shotwell revealed today that Starship could be ready for its orbital test flight from Boca Chica as early as June, though government regulatory obstacles make that launch more likely three to six months from now.
It appears that the delays in getting FAA approval for launch have not been the only issues that have delayed that first launch attempt. Though SpaceX would have likely tried a launch months ago with earlier prototypes had the approval arrived as originally promised, that launch would have likely failed based on ground tests the company has been doing during the delay.
When Musk tweeted his “hopefully May” estimate, SpaceX was nowhere close to finishing the Starship – Ship 24 – that is believed to have been assigned to the orbital launch debut. However, SpaceX finally accelerated Ship 24 assembly within the last few weeks and ultimately finished stacking the upgraded Starship on May 8th. A great deal of work remains to truly complete Ship 24, but SpaceX should be ready to send it to a test stand within a week or two. Even though the testing Ship 24 will need to complete has been done before by Ship 20, making its path forward less risky than Booster 7’s, Ship 24 will debut a number of major design changes and likely needs at least two months of testing to reach a basic level of flight readiness.
A more likely launch date is probably late July at the earliest, though of course that will also depend on the government’s approval, something that presently appears difficult to get.
On Christmas Eve 1968 three Americans became the first humans to visit another world. What they did to celebrate was unexpected and profound, and will be remembered throughout all human history. Genesis: the Story of Apollo 8, Robert Zimmerman's classic history of humanity's first journey to another world, tells that story, and it is now available as both an ebook and an audiobook, both with a foreword by Valerie Anders and a new introduction by Robert Zimmerman.
The ebook is available everywhere for $5.99 (before discount) at amazon, or direct from my ebook publisher, ebookit. If you buy it from ebookit you don't support the big tech companies and the author gets a bigger cut much sooner.
The audiobook is also available at all these vendors, and is also free with a 30-day trial membership to Audible.
"Not simply about one mission, [Genesis] is also the history of America's quest for the moon... Zimmerman has done a masterful job of tying disparate events together into a solid account of one of America's greatest human triumphs."--San Antonio Express-News
The concerning part was that on Booster 7, they collapsed the transfer tube from the upper tank to the engines, due to some mistake in procedure during detanking. (Current theory). Like a straw, when you block one end and pull air out, it collapsed, stainless steel just being a bit stiffer than plastic, it took more of apressure drop.
But they seem to have fixed it, which is impressive, since b7 was back on the launch stand for further tests. Within days. That is impressive.
But Booster 7s current state is a potential issue. B8 is coming along quickly though…
Good article on the problem and the seeming fix.
https://www.teslarati.com/spacex-super-heavy-booster-b7-completes-repairs/
Has pics of the collapsed tube.
Here’s a video of a railroad tank car imploding when suction was applied to the tank outlet without the manway’s valve also being open
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Zz95_VvTxZM
A very interesting article. The tweet from Michael Baylor tells us that despite SpaceX expressing interest in April of 2021 that they would like to launch as early as July, the bureaucracy waited until 25 June to begin the permitting process. My recollection is that before the October meeting for public input for the environmental review, the FAA thought that they would have their final report at the end of November, and that after the public input they extended that timeline to the end of December. As the release date approached, they began a month for month slip in their expected release date. Their current schedule is for the end of this month, but history suggests that this will continue to slip. SpaceX seems to be operating as though they will finally start getting their permissions to launch from Texas.
Would the spotted owl — er rather the plower piper-cub bird — no, it’s the piping plover — become extinct if Starship-Super Heavy blew up on or near the Boca Chica pad? Obviously the bureaucracy thinks so, and maybe they think that it will happen just by roaring into space. Fortunately the humans in the same regions throughout the gulf coast and up half the Eastern Seaboard are deemed, by these same bureaucrats, relatively safe. A close shave for humanity.
How many months does it take for the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service to add in a requirement that someone, such as SpaceX, keep tabs on the local piping plover population to determine the effect of Starship launches? Oh, wait, we have a partial answer: at least five! It takes five months for the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service to write one sentence. Ah, the intelligence of the bureaucrats. One would think that they had never worked on an environmental report before.
Super Heavy-Starship weighs-in at about 11 million pounds (almost twice the Saturn V-Apollo weight). Taking 100 tons (200,000 lbs) of payload to orbit means it delivers 2% of its initial weight, half of the percentage of a Saturn V (but at much, much less cost per ton). Single stage to orbit is supposed to be 1% or less, but can that be done for less cost per ton than a Starship?
From the article:
A difference between NASA’s SLS project and SpaceX’s Starship project is that SpaceX sets challenge goals. Not impossible but difficult to accomplish. Slips in schedule are common in aerospace development, but SpaceX tries to make progress despite those slips. Right now those slips are not due to technical issues but due to outside issues, in this case political issues.
I think a couple of Raptor 2s blew up recently. Test to destruction. More honest than cover-ups.
Fail often
Fail fast
Fail forward