Sunspot update: For the first time in 2022, sunspot activity eases
With the year half over, the Sun in June did something it had not done since the start of the year: The number of sunspots seen daily on the Sun’s visible hemisphere actually declined from the month before.
I know this because, as I do every month, I have posted below NOAA’s monthly update of its graph tracking the number of sunspots on the Sun’s Earth-facing hemisphere, with some addition details added to provide a larger context.
The graph above has been modified to show the predictions of the solar science community for the previous solar maximum. The green curves show the community’s two original predictions from April 2007 for the previous maximum, with half the scientists predicting a very strong maximum and half predicting a weak one. The blue curve is their revised May 2009 prediction. The red curve is the new prediction, first posted by NOAA in April 2020.
The decline in activity in June even included one day, June 8, 2022, where the Sun was blank, the first time that had happened since a four day stretch from December 9 to December 12, 2021. Based on the amount of activity presently going on, as well as the general increase in the number of sunspots this year, it will not be surprising if that one day in June is that last blank day we see for several years.
Despite the June decline, the sunspot count was still much higher than the 2020 prediction of NOAA’s solar scientist panel, and continues to suggest that the outlier prediction of a handful of solar scientists late in 2020 — that this upcoming maximum will be a very active one — appears more likely to be correct.
Then again, past performance is no guarantee of future results. No one in the solar scientist community really understands the processes that produce the sunspot cycle, so all their predictions are merely based on past patterns. In an object as large and as complex as the Sun, it is likely a mistake to assume such patterns will repeat like clockwork. Instead, we should expect a large dose of chaos in what the Sun does, even if it does it within certain reasonable expected parameters.
Now available in hardback and paperback as well as ebook!
From the press release: In this ground-breaking new history of early America, historian Robert Zimmerman not only exposes the lie behind The New York Times 1619 Project that falsely claims slavery is central to the history of the United States, he also provides profound lessons about the nature of human societies, lessons important for Americans today as well as for all future settlers on Mars and elsewhere in space.
Conscious Choice: The origins of slavery in America and why it matters today and for our future in outer space, is a riveting page-turning story that documents how slavery slowly became pervasive in the southern British colonies of North America, colonies founded by a people and culture that not only did not allow slavery but in every way were hostile to the practice.
Conscious Choice does more however. In telling the tragic history of the Virginia colony and the rise of slavery there, Zimmerman lays out the proper path for creating healthy societies in places like the Moon and Mars.
“Zimmerman’s ground-breaking history provides every future generation the basic framework for establishing new societies on other worlds. We would be wise to heed what he says.” —Robert Zubrin, founder of founder of the Mars Society.
All editions are available at Amazon, Barnes & Noble, and all book vendors, with the ebook priced at $5.99 before discount. The ebook can also be purchased direct from my ebook publisher, ebookit, in which case you don't support the big tech companies and I get a bigger cut much sooner.
Autographed printed copies are also available at discount directly from me (hardback $24.95; paperback $14.95; Shipping cost for either: $5.00). Just email me at zimmerman @ nasw dot org.
With the year half over, the Sun in June did something it had not done since the start of the year: The number of sunspots seen daily on the Sun’s visible hemisphere actually declined from the month before.
I know this because, as I do every month, I have posted below NOAA’s monthly update of its graph tracking the number of sunspots on the Sun’s Earth-facing hemisphere, with some addition details added to provide a larger context.
The graph above has been modified to show the predictions of the solar science community for the previous solar maximum. The green curves show the community’s two original predictions from April 2007 for the previous maximum, with half the scientists predicting a very strong maximum and half predicting a weak one. The blue curve is their revised May 2009 prediction. The red curve is the new prediction, first posted by NOAA in April 2020.
The decline in activity in June even included one day, June 8, 2022, where the Sun was blank, the first time that had happened since a four day stretch from December 9 to December 12, 2021. Based on the amount of activity presently going on, as well as the general increase in the number of sunspots this year, it will not be surprising if that one day in June is that last blank day we see for several years.
Despite the June decline, the sunspot count was still much higher than the 2020 prediction of NOAA’s solar scientist panel, and continues to suggest that the outlier prediction of a handful of solar scientists late in 2020 — that this upcoming maximum will be a very active one — appears more likely to be correct.
Then again, past performance is no guarantee of future results. No one in the solar scientist community really understands the processes that produce the sunspot cycle, so all their predictions are merely based on past patterns. In an object as large and as complex as the Sun, it is likely a mistake to assume such patterns will repeat like clockwork. Instead, we should expect a large dose of chaos in what the Sun does, even if it does it within certain reasonable expected parameters.
Now available in hardback and paperback as well as ebook!
From the press release: In this ground-breaking new history of early America, historian Robert Zimmerman not only exposes the lie behind The New York Times 1619 Project that falsely claims slavery is central to the history of the United States, he also provides profound lessons about the nature of human societies, lessons important for Americans today as well as for all future settlers on Mars and elsewhere in space.
Conscious Choice: The origins of slavery in America and why it matters today and for our future in outer space, is a riveting page-turning story that documents how slavery slowly became pervasive in the southern British colonies of North America, colonies founded by a people and culture that not only did not allow slavery but in every way were hostile to the practice.
Conscious Choice does more however. In telling the tragic history of the Virginia colony and the rise of slavery there, Zimmerman lays out the proper path for creating healthy societies in places like the Moon and Mars.
“Zimmerman’s ground-breaking history provides every future generation the basic framework for establishing new societies on other worlds. We would be wise to heed what he says.” —Robert Zubrin, founder of founder of the Mars Society.
All editions are available at Amazon, Barnes & Noble, and all book vendors, with the ebook priced at $5.99 before discount. The ebook can also be purchased direct from my ebook publisher, ebookit, in which case you don't support the big tech companies and I get a bigger cut much sooner.
Autographed printed copies are also available at discount directly from me (hardback $24.95; paperback $14.95; Shipping cost for either: $5.00). Just email me at zimmerman @ nasw dot org.
As the sun is our major heat source, a good understanding of it’s patterns is very important! IMHO