U.S. and China top Russia for most launches in 2016
The competition heats up: In 2016 it appears that the United States will complete the most rocket launches, at 20, followed by China with 19 and Russia with 18.
For the past two decades Russia has generally been the yearly leader in launches, but recent competition from the U.S. private sector and China’s surging government program, combined with lagging quality control problems and budget shortages in Russia, has had their launch rate decline to third. I also fully expect the U.S. lead to grow in the coming years as a range of low cost new companies come on line.
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The competition heats up: In 2016 it appears that the United States will complete the most rocket launches, at 20, followed by China with 19 and Russia with 18.
For the past two decades Russia has generally been the yearly leader in launches, but recent competition from the U.S. private sector and China’s surging government program, combined with lagging quality control problems and budget shortages in Russia, has had their launch rate decline to third. I also fully expect the U.S. lead to grow in the coming years as a range of low cost new companies come on line.
Readers!
Please consider supporting my work here at Behind the Black. Your support allows me the freedom and ability to analyze objectively the ongoing renaissance in space, as well as the cultural changes -- for good or ill -- that are happening across America. Fourteen years ago I wrote that SLS and Orion were a bad ideas, a waste of money, would be years behind schedule, and better replaced by commercial private enterprise. Only now does it appear that Washington might finally recognize this reality.
In 2020 when the world panicked over COVID I wrote that the panic was unnecessary, that the virus was apparently simply a variation of the flu, that masks were not simply pointless but if worn incorrectly were a health threat, that the lockdowns were a disaster and did nothing to stop the spread of COVID. Only in the past year have some of our so-called experts in the health field have begun to recognize these facts.
Your help allows me to do this kind of intelligent analysis. I take no advertising or sponsors, so my reporting isn't influenced by donations by established space or drug companies. Instead, I rely entirely on donations and subscriptions from my readers, which gives me the freedom to write what I think, unencumbered by outside influences.
You can support me either by giving a one-time contribution or a regular subscription. There are four ways of doing so:
1. Zelle: This is the only internet method that charges no fees. All you have to do is use the Zelle link at your internet bank and give my name and email address (zimmerman at nasw dot org). What you donate is what I get.
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4. Donate by check, payable to Robert Zimmerman and mailed to
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18, 19, & 20, respectively, are what the Russians, Chinese, and Americans have now. They also have at least 2, 3, and 3 more scheduled this year, respectively. However, the Chinese have been known to launch missions unannounced, and they for some reason launch heavily in November and December. I wouldn’t be surprised to see China pop off another two unannounced.
Despite what has been reported at the link and elsewhere, it won’t be the first time America led in the annual orbital launch count. She did that every year from 1958 to 1965. Perhaps other years too, but I’m too lazy to dig through all of the stats right now.
Proton has been out of traffic since the summer, but so too Falcon 9 since 3 months now. So in terms of capacity without such problems, China seems to be slightly behind.
mkent,
The article has been corrected. It now acknowledges the US lead in the early years, and also mentions a US lead in the mid 1990s. Good eye on your part.
If SpaceX successfully makes its launch vehicles reusable, thereby slashing costs, do you think the U.S. launch rate will surge ahead of both Russia and China?