What We Should ALL Be Doing Right Now!


Genesis cover

On Christmas Eve 1968 three Americans became the first humans to visit another world. What they did to celebrate was unexpected and profound, and will be remembered throughout all human history. Genesis: the Story of Apollo 8, Robert Zimmerman's classic history of humanity's first journey to another world, tells that story, and it is now available as both an ebook and an audiobook, both with a foreword by Valerie Anders and a new introduction by Robert Zimmerman.

 
The ebook is available everywhere for $5.99 (before discount) at amazon, or direct from my ebook publisher, ebookit.

 
The audiobook is also available at all these vendors, and is also free with a 30-day trial membership to Audible.
 

"Not simply about one mission, [Genesis] is also the history of America's quest for the moon... Zimmerman has done a masterful job of tying disparate events together into a solid account of one of America's greatest human triumphs." --San Antonio Express-News

I think this video clarifies perfectly the policies of our state and federal governments as well as the advice of all of their experts concerning the Wuhan flu. If we would only do what they tell us, all would be fine!

It also illustrates why we as citizens should simply begin living our lives normally, telling them to go to hell.

Readers!
 

We are now in the third week of my annual July fund-raiser for Behind the Black. My deep thanks to everyone who has so far donated or subscribed. The response this year has been wonderful.
 

We are not done yet. This monthly fund-raiser is now half over, and I am hoping the second half will result in as many donations as the first half did. If it does, I will remain free to continue my writing as I see fit, unblemished by the efforts of others to squelch my perspective in this increasingly intolerant world.
 

This year's fund-raising drive is also significant in that it celebrates the 10th anniversary of this website's founding. It is hard to believe, but I have been doing this for a full decade, during which I have written more than 22,000 posts, of which more than 1,000 were essays and almost 2,600 were evening pauses.
 

Therefore, I hope you will please consider donating to Behind the Black, by giving either a one-time contribution or a regular subscription, as outlined in the tip jar below. Your support will allow me to continue covering science and culture as I have for the past twenty years, independent and free from any outside influence.


 

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61 comments

  • Col Beausabre

    Remember, the one thing they can’t take is being laughed at (especially since they think only they have the right to parody)

  • John

    I don’t know what office she holds but she makes more sense than any other politician I’ve heard.

  • Ian C.

    Sounds like corona fatigue. That was fast. Here, have something motivational:

    “The results showed that medical officials have vastly underestimated the overall ability of the virus to mutate, in findings that different strains have affected different parts of the world, leading to potential difficulties in finding an overall cure.”

    “Li ‘s team infected cells with COVID-19 strains carrying different mutations, of which the most aggressive strains were found to generate as much as 270 times as much viral load as the weakest strains. The aggressive strains also killed the human cells the fastest.”

    “The study could have future implications on the treatment of coronavirus, as several different strains have been found throughout the world. The United States, which has the world’s worst death toll at 42,897, and 799,515 overall cases, has been struck by different mutations. New York, which itself had the worst death rate in the US, and the eastern coast show a strain of coronavirus similar to that found in Europe, whereas the western US has shown similarities with strains found in China.”

    https://www.jpost.com/health-science/coronavirus-has-mutated-into-at-least-30-different-strains-new-study-finds-625333

  • sippin_bourbon

    “The United States, which has the world’s worst death toll …”

    If you believe the numbers coming out of China.. which I don’t.

    There has also been evidence/reports that the US number of deaths is inflated.
    With the all the reports of bad tests and lack of tests, can we trust the number of “confirmed” cases?

    If you compare the US to a similar region (population areas of high and low population density over a large geographic area) such as the EU (as opposed to its significantly smaller member states) they are higher.

    What surprises me in India. Second largest population. Some very highly populated cities. Yet number at 14th in the number of cases.

    I read something like 65 labs creating tests?. How many in the US?

  • pzatchok

    There are reports coming out of China that a resurgence of the virus is now hitting the northern regions.
    Ops it got out of Wuhan. Or got back in from nations outside China.
    You know, like any other virus.

  • Ian C.

    sippin_bourbon,

    If you believe the numbers coming out of China.. which I don’t.

    Nobody (here) does. Or should do.

    There has also been evidence/reports that the US number of deaths is inflated.

    There’s also a lot of underreporting.

    With the all the reports of bad tests and lack of tests

    China delivered (on purpose?) dysfunctional test kits to 30+ countries and fools are still buying from them. Same with other faulty PPE items.
    In March I attempted to buy PPE wholesale from China and am happy that I handed that stuff over to people who can deal with it better. It super easy for panicking buyers to burn millions of dollars and receive harmful garbage from China w/o refunds.

    can we trust the number of “confirmed” cases?

    No. That’s why we should look at “excess mortality” numbers and total deaths and draw conclusions. In the excess deaths will be both C19 deaths and those non-C19 patients that died from lack of treatment because the health care system is focused on C19.
    The real case numbers can be anything, it’s all messed up. It’s one of the few times when I trust the dead more than the living.

    Re India, give it time, it’s just started. I wouldn’t trust their numbers as well, I’d always assume a lack of reliable testing. They seem to have some experience dealing with outbreaks. Same with Africa (e.g. Ebola). If they can contain it, good for them. Otherwise we’ll see the same videos coming from those places as we got from Wuhan in January or recently from Ecuador. The potential geopolitical consequences are worth thinking through.

    Re tests in the US, no idea.

  • john hare

    Ian C,
    With different strains showing different virulence, is it possible that surviving a weaker strain confers immunity against the stronger strain? I am thinking historically when it was discovered that cowpox inoculated for smallpox. The vaccine was natural and available without a lot of development and manufacturing. Is it remotely possible that the vaccine already exists in the natural form of the weaker strains?

    If this conjecture has any validity at all, why isn’t it being checked out by people that know what they are doing? Or is it?

  • Ian C.

    john hare,

    This isn’t my strength, so I asked around:

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Antibody-dependent_enhancement

    In other (my) words: the mild strain lets you create antibodies that are used by the stronger strain to take over (and destroy) the body’s defense mechanisms, thus making it worse.

    That was just one reply I’ve got and it’s still inconclusive. If I learn more, I’ll let you know.

  • Ian C.

    Just to add, ADE is related to

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cytokine_release_syndrome

    which some virologists expect/fear to happen with a second C19 wave. A healthy immune system is turned via overreaction against the body. Perhaps that was responsible for the many deaths of rather young people during the Spanish flu.
    Their scenario in case of C19: the first wave kills the weak and ill, the second wave kills those who survived the first wave by hijacking their antibodies, infiltrating their white blood cells and turning them against the body. (Hope I got that right.)

    But I have no idea how likely this 2nd wave scenario is. I hope it remains confined to edge cases.

  • Ian C: If this is so, then this virus is a real threat. However, if any of the model predictors try to claim they predicted this we must note that they are lying. They did not know this, and they based their false and wildly overstated predictions based merely on a first seasonal wave.

  • Andrew_W

    Is everyone unaware of the information on antibody testing out of NY?
    Admittedly the results are preliminary, but they have broken the information up into 4 geographical chunks: NY City, Long Island, Westchester, and the rest of NY State.

    I compared the death rates in those 4 chunks with the rate of infection as measured with the antibody tests and the best match I get is with a 1% false positive rate (yes, lots of assumptions about reporting of deaths) if the false positive rates were much higher than 1%, the “rest of NY State” would have a much higher result than the 3.6% they got, which wouldn’t match the ratio of the death rates between the 4 “chunks”.

    A false positive rate of ~1% would give useful results in NY where the actual percentage of people infected is high, but be rubbish in the Santa Clara study where infection rates were certainly far lower in comparison.

    So the number of positives across the state was about twice that which I’d guesstimated (“1 – 1.5 million”).
    These results would suggest that the number of infections in the countries that I’ve used as “controls” for getting the little under 1% to-as-much-as 2% fatality rate would be double that which the best of those countries, in terms of track and trace, have detected.

    Can that be right? Possibly, as long as the transmission from those undetected cases is very, very low, otherwise there’d be clusters breaking out – which would quickly be detected by those countries with the effort put in to detecting such things.

    We know we have super-spreaders, and for R0 to be as low as 2.6 (a popular figure for unbridled transmission) there are likely a lot of people that get the virus and don’t spread it.

    So I might have to go from ~0.8 – 2% fatality rate to ~0.4 – 1% fatality rate.

    But still lots of unknowns, like how soon after infection do enough antibodies appear, how long do antibodies persist.

  • sippin_bourbon

    “Re India, give it time, it’s just started. ”

    That is not what I was seeing.
    They had a few cases in late January.
    But I am having a hard time finding a reliable source that clearly states what actions they took.
    I have heard they went to a lock down more recently.

    Did they shut down borders sooner?

  • Rose

    This is interesting: Blood-pressure drugs are in the crosshairs of COVID-19 research

    * https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-conoravirus-blood-pressure-ins/blood-pressure-drugs-are-in-the-crosshairs-of-covid-19-research-idUSKCN2251GQ

    Is hypertension itself a risk factor for poor COVID-19 outcomes, or is it the drugs people take to treat hypertension?

  • wayne

    Rose–
    Interesting, yes. (I have no real opinion, but it is interesting.)
    Does this guy have any actual stats? (only did a cursory read)
    One huge problem in-play, as to studying alleged effects like this– a lot of confounding variables. Folks who trend toward taking ‘high-blood-pressure meds,’ also trend toward using multiple other meds.
    The only med I can speak to– clozapine, a potent anti-psychotic, which can crash your white blood count. (if you take it, your blood is tested every week.)

  • Andrew_W

    Having said that the NY figures are also not truly based on random sampling: As I understand it those that were tested were people that were out and about and encountered the testing station. If not all people get out and about in urban areas to the same extent, that is many live rural or just stay home more, the chances of them being tested are lower, and so are the chances of them being infected. This bias would cause test results to be inflated above the actual antibody rates in the state.

  • Edward

    Ian C. wrote: “There’s also a lot of underreporting.

    Underreporting is only assumed, and it is being assumed by governments and organizations that have a financial (or other) incentive for there to be more cases and deaths. The U.S. has messed this up so badly that we cannot trust any of the numbers or conclusions that are coming from the experts who are directing (but should be advising) us as to what to do.

    Even so, the video in the post accurately mocks those same experts, because they keep telling us such contradictory things, every day. No wonder we cannot trust them.

    Not believing the politicians is one thing, but when the scientists become unreliable then we have a problem.

    Meanwhile, every time I need a good laugh (and a simultaneous cry), I watch the video again.

  • Andrew_W

    Something for Trump fans to consider:
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QtgVxGkrX1Y
    [2:50]

  • Rose

    Yeah, hmm. I see that the president’s fans are attempting to rebut the ridicule this generated by discussing blood irradiation therapy.
    * https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Blood_irradiation_therapy

  • Cotour

    HOW TRUP NOW SETS UP THE MEDIA

    Trump plays the long game.

    “Blood irradiation”, exposing blood to UV light as a therapy:

    ” Blood irradiation therapy is also administered externally through the skin on the projection of large blood vessels. ”

    This is what the president said regarding POSSIBLE therapies: https://youtu.be/zicGxU5MfwE

    He mentions the possibility of irradiating the blood with light, and using a “disinfectant” in possibly purifying the blood. Already a therapy using UV light exists, maybe it needs to be further developed? And he did not say to use bleach, drink bleach or anything else other than some kind of medically administered therapy to clean the blood. Do you really think that sounds silly? Does not sound silly to me.

    And I want to point out that someone like the president who mentions something like these kinds of approaches to dealing with a new virus or disease in how new technologies are developed, how the research is funded and is how they come to exist in the real world. That is how these things come to be and not through what ANY media personality thinks, says or does.

    Just like the Hydroxychloroquine issue, the president mentions it and the media immediately must turn it into a “poison” suggested by the president. “The president just suggested that people drink bleach!” is what I have now heard with my own ears from one of the people who watch these media outlets invested in destroying the president. (And that is a demonstration in just what an existential threat he really represents to these self interested media enitities)

    “The VA just did a study of Hydroxchloroquine in vets and it was found not to be effective”: A study done using probably much older people who ha d underlying conditions and were in advanced stages of the disease. Anything to discredit the president.

    I have looked pretty extensively into the issue and Hydroxychloroquine is very effective in many patients in combination with a Z pak or other drugs. In my every day life have personally spoken to people stricken with the virus, and ICU nurses, and some say it worked and saved lives, and others say they had to use something else. Some drugs work for some people and some drugs work for others, just like in the real world.

    An American who watches the likes of CNN and MSNBC comes to the hospital and needs help due to Covid 19, the doctor has tried everything else except Hydroxychloroquine and says to the patient “Were going to try the Hydroxychloroquine” And the patient says to the doctor “No, no doctor, don’t give me the Hydroxychloroquine, I heard on CNN that president Trump said it worked but it really does not, he was lying” ………ahhhhhhhhh, dead. “But the media said it does not work”. Good by and good luck.

    A Covid 19 story and a doctors comments: https://youtu.be/3DVathrs218

    And I guarantee you that if Trump mentioned it there is someone working on developing or soon will be developing some blood “Disinfectant” technology that will clean the blood and rid it of dangerous viruses and other maladies. I have not found it yet but will keep looking. Its out there.

    My continued suggestion to the every day American who I care about? STOP WATCHING AND PAYING ATTENTION TO THE MEDIA, THEY ARE NOT YOUR FRIENDS AND ARE PUSHING AN AGENDA AND IT IS NOT BASED IN JOURNALISM, AND ITS NOT IN THE INTERESTS OF YOUR FREEDOM AND YOUR COUNTRY.

    JGL

  • Rose

    Donald Trump said idea to inject disinfectant to cure coronavirus was ‘sarcastic’
    * https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=scMxBjz9DkQ
    Specifically, “asking a very sarcastic question to the reporters in the room.”

  • Andrew_W

    I was actually looking more at his advocacy of injecting “antiseptics” Wiki “Antiseptics are generally distinguished from antibiotics by the latter’s ability to safely destroy bacteria within the body,”

    I suppose the C19 infected could just try getting really, really drunk. The blood irradiation idea looks more like a clever idea in search of a mission. I think it’s closer to therapies like acupuncture that science, but maybe they could get a placebo effect with it.

  • Andrew_W

    Sorry, “disinfectant”, I miss-remembered it as “antiseptic”, He was not being sarcastic, he’s now lying (again) to cover his backside.

    But that’s just Trump . . .

  • Cotour

    WHAT I HAD SENT TO MY SISTER:

    Someone said this morning to me: “Trump suggested that people inject themselves with bleach”. Also someone said to me today : “Trump told people to inject themselves with Lysol”. And that is what the public hears and is what the media pushes. A bit too literal for me.

    There exists different technologies to “cleanse” or “disinfect” the blood, call it what you will.

    Trumps need to either stick it to the media in the on going gotcha war or just his need or compulsion to have something to say on any particular subject is not relevant (Not to me anyway). And that is why I do not, like I told you, watch any of Trumps news conferences, or any main stream media that covers him.

    And yes, Trump plays a long game.

    I have stated before, he is a kind of egomaniacal savant of sorts, and it works for him in a way that is not “Regular”, he is different. If you are unable to see him in the reality of his particular “style” then he is going to make you nuts.

    My only test for him? That he is committed to preserving in some way shape or form the Constitution and what it intends in the real world fight with the Democrats / “Progressives” / now Leftists who now in fact seek to destroy it and reformulate it. That is a non starter for me. How is that “Open” borders policy looking to you these days?

    There is no fine distinction to be made any more between the political parties in America, its either one way or its going to be the other. Do I like everything that Trump says? No I do not. Do I think he tends to create the controversies that surround him? Sometimes, yes he does. Get over it.

    Now, choose one.

  • Rose

    Dr. John Campbell describes it most charitably: “He’s a bit like me, really. He tends to think out loud. And I tend to think out loud sometimes and you can say things you don’t really mean.”
    * https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ypsUIh41xUw

  • Andrew_W

    The difference is that if Dr. John Campbell stuffs it up like that (and he has, I watch his videos too) he takes responsibility for his mistakes. Trump never does, he then tells lies, blames other, anything but accept responsibility – and his partisan supporters don’t question, never do, and his opponents are equally intractable, but, for me if I make a mistake – as I too often do when I comment here – I correct and apologize as I did above, I’d like to see that policy from others including politicians.

  • Andrew_W

    To eliminate this virus the challenge is to get R0 below 1 and keep it there until the enemy has been vanquished.
    The ability of countries, states and communities to do that will come down to both the discipline imposed by the state on the people and the social culture of the people in a country.

    At the moment we can see that some East Asian countries have gotten R0 without the use of government imposed measures, Western cultures are different to East Asian cultures, we’re more supportive of individuality – people having the right to do their own thing, that’s a good thing when it comes to economics and things like creativity and individual freedom. But when it comes to defeating this sort of enemy it’s not so effective, a few rogues spreading the virus can defeat the efforts of the majority to contain it.

    In military terms it only takes a few to break the ranks under pressure for the front to collapse. It’s all the people that are on the front line in this one and Western Society, with its individuality, isn’t so well equipped for this fight. The US least of all, especially with the hyper-partisanship that exits there now.

    (posted by me previously on another forum earlier today)

  • Andrew_W

    “. . some East Asian countries have gotten R0 well under 1 without . .”

  • Cotour

    Andrew W: Get over it.

  • Rose

    Cotour: Andrew W: Get over it.

    He, or more properly his country, will likely be getting over *it* very soon.

    But for the reasons that he mentioned, along with the strongly federal nature of the US government leading to differing responses among the states and the inability to curb interstate traffic, I don’t believe that NZ’s model will work in the US. Infection is so prevalent that I just don’t see the lockdowns holding out for long enough to bring them down the the level that can be properly traced. In the end, I think we will see both the economic damage (destruction of both livelihood and lives) inflicted by what will probably be a cycle of repeated lockdowns plus the deaths we would have had by following a Swedish model, but just drawn out over a longer period.

    (Speaking of Sweden, Hey Lee S, how are you and your dad?)

  • Cotour

    Been busy today and I had 5 minutes to look further into “Disinfecting” human blood of viruses and other pathogens.

    https://news.harvard.edu/gazette/story/2015/08/wyss-improves-sepsis-device/

    I will be looking further into it all, both this system and the UV system. And this is over and above Trumps propensity to just say something.

  • Rose: I have been in email correspondence with Lee S. All is fine. He is simply taking a break from commenting for a bit. He thanks you for your concern, and is most appreciative.

  • wayne

    Good deal on Lee.

    {Heck} on Wheels –
    “The Swede from Norway”
    https://youtu.be/FQq60LM5tcc
    (0:22)

    “I’m Norwegian, but no matter. We’re all American’s now, even you Rebels, yes?!”

  • commodude

    Robert,

    We may disagree with Lee S, but I doubt nay of us wish him harm. Political disagreements for me aren’t personal, and he seems like a good person. I pray he and his are doing well.

  • Edward

    Rose wrote: “… and the inability to curb interstate traffic …

    It isn’t just interstate traffic. In Santa Clara County, traffic was low for the first four weeks of our lockdown, but for the past week and a half auto traffic has been coming back toward normal levels. Rush hour traffic has not materialized, but traffic is similar to the flow rates, before lockdown, off rush hour. I have no idea where everyone is going, because the stores aren’t open. I have had to drive almost every day of our lockdown and I have noticed this change.

    Even in deep blue Silicon Valley, people getting tired of this Great Oppression.

  • Edward

    It’s good to hear that Lee S is OK. The “radio silence” was worrying.

  • wayne

    “Sweden has reported a record number of new coronavirus infections for the second day in a row – just as the country threatens to close bars and restaurants that do not follow social distancing measures.”

    “Public Health Agency: Far too early to relax”
    https://www.aftonbladet.se/nyheter/a/b5v95d/folkhalsomyndigheten-alldeles-for-tidigt-att-slappna-av
    (just translate the page to English)

  • Andrew_W

    Anders Tegnell and Johan Giesecke are the people steering Sweden’s policy on dealing with Covid-19, both have a long history of downplaying the risk of pandemics, with Giesecke proud to have been recently advising WHO Director-General Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus.

  • Max

    UV light is very effective as a disinfectant. My daughter used to tell me, when she worked at a tanning salon, the machine is sterile, we wipe it down after each use to remove the sweat and the oil.
    Place your hand over a flashlight in a dark room, obviously light penetrates skin. UV more so, that’s why people suntan for their health. Not only do you form vitamin D, necessary for health and immunity, but it breaks down chemical compounds that helps the body remove them from your system.
    There are many drugs/medications and skin treatments that forbid you from being in the sun because of adverse side effects. In vaccines for example, Thimerosal will break down to ethylmercury causing mental issues. aluminum adjuvants are also in vaccines. It is necessary in these circumstances for some people to avoid sunlight completely.

    Millions perhaps billions of people are drinking alcohol (A disinfectant) in large amounts, it is not working to kill the virus. Conclusion? Drink more alcohol.

    Does drinking bleach help? The government thinks so, Chlorine is the disinfectant that’s in my drinking water. (Chlorine gas in the shower is the leading cause of lung cancer in non-smokers)

    There are stores across America, vitamin shops, who specialize in the area of nutrition to fight viral and other infections. Zinc is my favorite, but there’s also tea, vitamin C, blueberries, etc. and a host of unconventional treatments like hydrogen peroxide, crystal therapies, Royal rife style radio frequencies devices, and perhaps 5G radiation. (whether you want it or not)

    What I have experimented with and have the best results is “working in the yard”. That means exercise, sweating out toxins, oxygenation, sunlight, heat. Not only do you build immune system but you sleep well too.

  • Ian C.

    Bob,

    I cannot speak for models used for C19 policies. But I know what was available to me since January, when such concerns were making their rounds. Since I’m weak on the virological/medical side, I forget about the details (don’t ask me anything about proteins and stuff) and just work with the high-level consequences.

    There are pandemic response simulations/exercises that should have 2nd and later waves included. The responses we see from governments worldwide might give us a hint what they fear or prepare for. Countries that can’t afford it are shutting down. We might be the lucky ones here with developed health care systems and plenty of wealth to waste.

    The whole thing might peter out into a moderate something burger. But that’s not what I prepare for. Let’s call it the cornucopian burger that keeps on giving.

    john hare,

    One that’s currently hot is plasma therapy, though I’ve been told that not enough is know at this point re its usefulness for C19. There are currently 80+ vaccines and 300+ treatments under development, I bet your approach is among them.

    sippin_bourbon,

    Re India, I mostly read anecdotal reports. Nothing reliable from official sources. That’s why I wait for videos and stories instead of numbers. Some places seem to open up again.

    Edward,

    Even so, the video in the post accurately mocks those same experts, because they keep telling us such contradictory things, every day. No wonder we cannot trust them.

    Novel situation, daily masses of new reports and studies and assumptions are coming in. From that you have to derive coherent rules that are valid (and useful) for a larger time span and all societal groups. Have fun doing that.

    when the scientists become unreliable

    The positive interpretation is that the international scientific community with thousands of researchers working on the problem produces so many new data in such a short time span. Science contradicts itself anyway on its path to find out (it has to with new knowledge invalidating the old), now it just does it way faster. Isn’t that great actually?

    Andrew_W,

    At the moment we can see that some East Asian countries have gotten R0 well under 1 without the use of government imposed measures

    Which ones?

    Happy to hear that Lee S is okay.

  • Andrew_W

    Ian C
    As the coronavirus pandemic sparks global lockdowns, life has continued comparatively unhindered in places like Taiwan, South Korea and Hong Kong after their governments and citizens took decisive early action against the unfolding crisis.

    https://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2020/04/08/asia-pacific/hong-kong-taiwan-south-korea-buck-global-lockdown-trend/#.XqYVuYzVKUk

  • I think our worried modelers in this thread should first, rewatch the video of the post. It illustrates the insane and totally useless policies of most western governments, especially in the U.S. And that insanity in the U.S. is not solely because we have fifty states all with different policies. Within most states the policies have been incoherent and irrational, to the extreme.

    Second, I refer you again to this essay: The real devastation from COVID-19: A destroyed economy imposed by government panic

    The numbers from the Wuhan flu continue to demonstrate that the reaction was an over-reaction, and will cause far more harm then the virus itself.

  • Andrew_W

    Mr. Zimmerman, I think you fail to understand that I’m not advocating policy. I’m concentrating on the characteristics of the virus. I’ve pointed out that it has been controlled in some countries without them resorting to lockdowns.
    And because I’m not particularly partisan about what policies we should be adopting, I’m not searching out every ad hoc rubbish study produced by people with the same agenda and wishes about what the characteristics of the virus are as I have – and ignoring other more thorough studies that contradict what I want to believe.

  • Andrew_W

    For the US I think Rose is close to the mark.
    https://behindtheblack.com/behind-the-black/points-of-information/what-we-should-all-be-doing-right-now/#comment-1079571
    I’m seeing too much division for non-lockdown containment to work in the US as it has in the countries mentioned above, and unfortunately we can’t make the characteristics of the virus different through wishing they were different.

  • Andew_W: I am totally uninterested in wasting time debating you. However, your absurd statement that you “are not advocating policy” needs addressing, as it is blatantly dishonest. Every modern modeler seems to always repeat this lie, even as they go out of their way to come up with models that will do expressly that: “advocate a policy.”

    Let me quote Ian C again:

    If I were a modeler in a public health position and think that something serious is coming, knowing that careful and balanced warnings get usually ignored, boy would I make dramatic predictions under the (valid) assumption that if nothing is done that this might have serious consequences. Considering the massive uncertainties in the medical dimension (characteristics of the disease, surge capacity and performance of the health care system) and the human dimension (how will people behave/react, one has to start with [most likely wrong] assumptions that influence the model significantly), I would see to get people working as soon as possible to take mitigative steps and gather data. A nice “would you please” doesn’t do the job. [emphasis mine]

    I think that nicely sums up the state of modern modeling. And it is also why I do not take most modern modelers very seriously. In fact, I generally ignore them, as I think our elected officials should. Their track record stinks, and this epidemic has only served to illustrate that fact again. Worse, that awful track record has repeatedly been exposed as having an agenda.

  • Andrew_W

    Mr. Zimmerman, if I’ve an ideological agenda you should be able to describe it. So make your claims as to what you think it is.

  • wayne

    ST: Deep Space-9
    In Purgatory’s Shadow
    “Lying is a Skill….
    https://youtu.be/w0ba-A01WWA
    1:51

    Personally, I’ve had my fill of all this.
    =Endless lies spewed by professional liars, backstopped by amateur liars & budding totalitarian statists, completing what obama set in motion.

  • Ian C.

    Andrew_W,

    All those countries have “government imposed measures.” They just didn’t (have to) kick their economies and public lives into the dust. Wearing masks, fever checks, restrictions for restaurants and events, closing schools or businesses where needed etc., it’s all there. Perhaps we’re meaning different things with “measures” though.

    See South Korea’s “new normal.”

    https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-southkorea/work-smart-travel-alone-eat-out-fast-south-koreas-prescription-for-coronavirus-recovery-idUSKCN22617K?il=0

    Bob,

    worried modelers

    Provided one does the work honestly and with some experience, it forces us to get our assumptions straight and makes them testable and errors can often be traced back. Whereas the majority of people go with their vague assumptions alone (usually undocumented and prone to forget the parts that didn’t work out). When we’re wrong, we have a higher chance of finding out where and why.

    Anyway, I restrict myself from making further C19 predictions here. No fun. I rather focus on those things I love about this place and its community: space and liberty. Won’t C19 let ruin that for me.

  • wayne

    Jordan Peterson:
    “Tragedy vs Evil” Summary
    https://youtu.be/mFYlFI1bjSg
    2:47

  • Andrew_W

    Ian C. OK, I’d the impression that government hadn’t used legal threat’s so much.

    I wonder if Mr. Zimmerman would find the measures taken by the governments in Taiwan, S Korea and Hong Kong acceptable.

    If not, and if the same applies to others stridently opposed to government imposed measures, the question becomes: Would entirely voluntary measures have been enough to get R0 below 1 in the US? I suspect not. So that would put things on the course that Rose described.

  • wayne

    Andrew_W-
    briefly–
    We have a lot of power-hungry in elected positions (not to mention the permanent back-office support staff of the Administrative state) and we’re getting a look at exactly who believes in Federalism, and a *whole bunch* of other stuff.

  • Andrew_W

    Wayne, I was looking at the graphs of the different states a couple of days ago I noticed that there’s a divergence in the progress being made fighting the spread; there’re about 6 states in the NW, 3 in the NE, Hawaii and Alaska (all small in population) that have gotten past the peak and are down to low numbers in terms of the daily diagnosed.
    Perhaps those states should declare independence so they can restrict travel from states that continue to have high rates of infection. You’d be supportive of such self-determination no doubt (all very hypothetical and not going to happen) ;-)

  • wayne

    Andrew_W–
    (no time to address this)
    ref: “restrict travel from States”
    Interestingly, under the various (FDR) depression-era Court (scotus) interpretation(s) of the Commerce Clause, the President has massive powers to impose his will unto the States. (This stuff works both ways) And to Trump’s credit, he has not gone all totalitarian on us.
    gotta go….

  • commodude

    Andrew, the actions taken by other governments are immaterial to the situation in the United States. Their Constitutions are different, and they don’t have the history of individualism, decentralized control and individual rights that the US does.

    The wholesale surrender of rights in the face of a threat raised to hysterical levels the media, and their complicity in the tyrannical overreach of the petit tyrants in state capitols is unforgivable.

  • Andrew_W

    Commodude:
    . .they don’t have the history of individualism. .
    I mention that about 30 comments up. It’s all the people that are on the front line in this one and Western Society, with its individuality, isn’t so well equipped for this fight. The US least of all, especially with the hyper-partisanship that exits there now. So I agree with Rose on that one. It would be . . better . . if only 0.1% of those infected died and if, as with the flu, only 14% caught it in a year. I don’t see that happening (though vaccines would change that, perhaps other measures unknown), and wishing the weight of evidence wrong isn’t going to change that.

  • commodude

    Yet you continue to ask the question in comparison to other governments.

    To compare the US and South Korea, the actions of the governments and the reactions of the people to those actions is comparing apples to kumquats.

    The rabbit warrens of NYC and other massive metro areas are having issues. There are very few cases in the area I live, yet we’re under the same restrictive tyrannical rules as the rabbit warrens. Target the trouble areas, and leave the rest of us alone.

  • Andrew_W

    Commodude, I’m not imposing restriction, I haven’t advocated for restriction, I’ve pointed out that some cultures are more willing to accept restrictions than others. In your comment you seem to want to disagree with me about something, but I’ve no idea what.

  • Edward

    Ian C.,
    You wrote: “The positive interpretation is that the international scientific community with thousands of researchers working on the problem produces so many new data in such a short time span. Science contradicts itself anyway on its path to find out (it has to with new knowledge invalidating the old), now it just does it way faster. Isn’t that great actually?

    We didn’t seem to have such a problem with any of the other outbreaks that we had over the past two decades. Even under Ebola, which was even scarier, we didn’t have to suspend basic personal rights or shut down economies, because there just wasn’t that much uncertainty. Until the Wuhan Virus, we had learned much faster, and acted much more effectively. This time around, we learned much too late and acted so poorly that a regular flu has turned into a disastrous cluster bleep.

    So, no. Contradictory knowledge is not great, actually. What is learned early on should not be too inconsistent with what we learn later, otherwise those who were doing the early investigations and analyses were doing it wrong. That is bad. Barking up the wrong scientific tree delays the actual knowledge of the world around us. Misinformation early on results in poor decision making, such as suspending the public’s basic rights and freedoms as well as devastating entire economies when such action is unnecessary.

    When science works this bad, no one should trust it.

    What is good is when the later studies merely refine the knowledge gained earlier, such as increasing the confidence level or adding certainty to more significant digits. Especially when so many lives depend upon correct decision making.

    This is what good science is for, and this is the kind of science that should be — and is — trusted.

    wayne,
    You wrote: “Endless lies spewed by professional liars, backstopped by amateur liars & budding totalitarian statists, completing what obama set in motion.

    That is an excellent summary of this whole Great Oppression.

  • wayne

    Rollins Band
    “Liar”
    https://youtu.be/iaysTVcounI
    4:50

  • wayne

    Wickard v. Filburn:
    The Aggregation Principle & Congressional Power
    The Federalist Society
    https://youtu.be/rS4NRHU23cE
    4:39

  • wayne

    Andrew_W-
    Personally, I’m not a neo-confederate. (We had an entire Civil War over a lot of these issues.)

    The State’s created the Federal Government, not the other way around. However, various firewalls have been breached & destroyed since the “progressive era” of over 100 years ago.
    (We have an Income Tax (without direct apportionment), we have the direct-election of federal senators {who no longer answer to the States which they were supposed to represent} and scores of our SCOTUS decisions mangling all the OEM specs}

    (As much as I’d like California to secede, huge amounts of the State are “owned” by the Federal government, and all that would stay inside the Union.)

    States cannot create interstate-compacts with other States, unless they have approval of Congress.(See in part, Articles of Confederation, and why a rewrite was necessary.)

    Under the FDR/SCOTUS interpretation of the Commerce Clause, Trump has almost absolute authority to order States to open Commerce, in part by withholding Federal $$.

    (I’m tired of this stuff, but I’m darn sure of exactly what we need and who to blame.)

    “I know it was you, Fredo.”
    https://youtu.be/DjUOBVAbGhQ
    0:49

  • Ian C.

    Edward,

    This is what good science is for

    You follow a very idealized idea of what “good science” is. You sound like my engineering and embedded systems friends who can work with a lot of accuracy and where uncertainty is treated with a safety margin. Honest talk, straight to the topic. They assume that everything else should work in the same way.

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