Another ESA rendezvous demo mission proposed

10:52 am

The European Space Agency (ESA) and the Luxembourg startup ClearSpace yesterday announced a new demo mission to test autonomous rendezvous and proximity maneuvers, scheduled to launch in 2027.

PRELUDE aims to validate autonomous rendezvous and proximity operations in real flight conditions. The mission will test high-accuracy tracking, navigation and maneuvering using a combination of vision-based and complementary sensors feeding onboard algorithms and autonomous, fault-tolerant guidance, navigation and control (GNC) software. The goal is to demonstrate full freedom of movement and safe, repeatable maneuvers around another spacecraft.

Sounds good, eh? Not so fast. ClearSpace has had a bunch of these missions proposed, and none has yet flown. In 2019 ClearSpace won an ESA contract to de-orbit an old piece of space junk by 2025. In 2023 however that mission was stymied when that space junk, a payload adapter from a 2013 launch of Vega rocket launch, was hit by another piece of space junk.

Both ESA and ClearSpace apparently had difficulties re-designing the mission. In 2024, the ESA forced a major shake-up in ClearSpace’s management and missions, with the established company OHB taking over the startup. Subsequently the mission was redesigned to de-orbit a different defunct satellite, but delayed until 2029.

In 2024 the United Kingdom gave ClearSpace and Japan’s Astroscale a contract to de-orbit two satellites in ’26. It is however not clear at this time whether that mission will launch as planned.

This new PRECLUDE mission is interesting in that it will test the rendezvous and proximity technology that ClearSpace must have for all the other de-orbit missions. In other words, those other missions were never possible, because ClearSpace didn’t have the capability to do them. This new mission appears designed to develop that capability.

I ask: Why wasn’t PRECLUDE scheduled first, in the first place? That it wasn’t reflects very badly on both ClearSpace and the ESA.

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Genesis cover

On Christmas Eve 1968 three Americans became the first humans to visit another world. What they did to celebrate was unexpected and profound, and will be remembered throughout all human history. Genesis: the Story of Apollo 8, Robert Zimmerman's classic history of humanity's first journey to another world, tells that story, and it is now available as both an ebook and an audiobook, both with a foreword by Valerie Anders and a new introduction by Robert Zimmerman.

 

The print edition can be purchased at Amazon or any other book seller. If you want an autographed copy the price is $60 for the hardback and $45 for the paperback, plus $8 shipping for each. Go here for purchasing details. The ebook is available everywhere for $5.99 (before discount) at amazon, or direct from my ebook publisher, ebookit you don't support the big tech companies and the author gets a bigger cut much sooner.


The audiobook is also available at all these vendors, and is also free with a 30-day trial membership to Audible.
 

"Not simply about one mission, [Genesis] is also the history of America's quest for the moon... Zimmerman has done a masterful job of tying disparate events together into a solid account of one of America's greatest human triumphs."--San Antonio Express-News

A small European prototype re-entry capsule survived PSLV launch failure

9:24 am

A small prototype re-entry demonstration capsule, built by the Spanish startup Orbital Paradigm and dubbed the Kestrel Initial Demonstrator (KID), apparently survived for a short period the failure of the third stage of India’s PSLV rocket early this week.

According to an Orbital Paradigm press release, the survival of its little demonstrator came as a surprise. “When we understood that the launch was non-nominal it was a bit of a hit for us,” explained Orbital Paradigm CEO Francesco Cacciatore. … “I think the launch livestream was still ongoing when the team saw that we had 190 seconds of flight data transmitted and received. We needed a few minutes to realize it was real data and not a glitch.”

…“KID was tested beyond its design envelope, and it worked. Separation, power-on, and data transmission, even after reentry, all performed well despite degraded conditions,” explained the company in a 13 January update. “Based on initial analysis, it seems that we achieved 4 out of 5 launch milestones, albeit through an off-nominal profile. The failure to deliver customers’ data prevents us from declaring the mission a success.”

The company considers the mission a failure because it did not get the re-entry data back that it really needed. It says however it is moving forward on a more advanced demonstrator it hopes to launch in 2027. I suspect it will not hire India’s space agency ISRO to launch it.

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ULA loses another launch contract to SpaceX

9:09 am

The Space Force yesterday announced it has switched rocket companies for its next GPS satellite launch, taking the launch away from ULA and its Vulcan rocket and giving it to SpaceX.

SpaceX could launch the GPS III Space Vehicle 09 (SV09) within the next few weeks, as the satellite was entering the final stages of pre-flight preparations. As part of the swap, United Launch Alliance (ULA) will instead launch the third of the next generation of Global Positioning System satellites. The GPS III Follow-on (GPS IIIF) SV13 satellite was originally scheduled to launch on a Falcon Heavy, but will now fly on Vulcan.

“SV09 and SV13 were traded between ULA and SpaceX to get capability to orbit as soon as possible, for the same reason as the prior swap, which resulted in the last GPS launch in May 2025,” the spokesperson said in a statement. “The trade results in an overall net cost savings to the government and again demonstrates our sustained commitment to moving at speed to deliver combat-credible capabilities on orbit to meet warfighter needs.”

While at first glance it appears ULA has lost nothing, the military’s decision here bodes ill for the company. First, it indicates ULA has been unable to get Vulcan ready on time, forcing the Space Force to look to someone who could.

Second, this is the second time the Pentagon has taken a launch from ULA for these reasons. Increasingly it appears the military is losing patience with ULA’s inability to launch on time. For example, in awarding its most recent set of nine launches, it gave them all to SpaceX, bypassing ULA entirely.

In the past the Space Force tolerated ULA’s delays and high launch cost in order to guarantee the military had more than one launch provider. It now appears it is placing more importance on reliability and cost savings. And as I say, this bodes ill for ULA, which has not done a good job of providing either.

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Conscious Choice cover

Now available in hardback and paperback as well as ebook!

 

From the press release: In this ground-breaking new history of early America, historian Robert Zimmerman not only exposes the lie behind The New York Times 1619 Project that falsely claims slavery is central to the history of the United States, he also provides profound lessons about the nature of human societies, lessons important for Americans today as well as for all future settlers on Mars and elsewhere in space.

 
Conscious Choice: The origins of slavery in America and why it matters today and for our future in outer space, is a riveting page-turning story that documents how slavery slowly became pervasive in the southern British colonies of North America, colonies founded by a people and culture that not only did not allow slavery but in every way were hostile to the practice.  
Conscious Choice does more however. In telling the tragic history of the Virginia colony and the rise of slavery there, Zimmerman lays out the proper path for creating healthy societies in places like the Moon and Mars.

 

“Zimmerman’s ground-breaking history provides every future generation the basic framework for establishing new societies on other worlds. We would be wise to heed what he says.” —Robert Zubrin, founder of the Mars Society.

 

All editions are available at Amazon, Barnes & Noble, and all book vendors, with the ebook priced at $5.99 before discount. All editions can also be purchased direct from the ebook publisher, ebookit, in which case you don't support the big tech companies and the author gets a bigger cut much sooner.

 

Autographed printed copies are also available at discount directly from the author (hardback $29.95; paperback $14.95; Shipping cost for either: $6.00). Just send an email to zimmerman @ nasw dot org.

NASA and Department of Energy agree to place nuclear reactor on Moon by ’30

8:56 am

NASA and Department of Energy have signed an agreement to develop nuclear power stations for NASA lunar base, and are targeting 2030 for placing a nuclear reactor on Moon.

NASA, along with the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE), announced Tuesday a renewed commitment to their longstanding partnership to support the research and development of a fission surface power system for use on the Moon under the Artemis campaign and future NASA missions to Mars.

A recently signed memorandum of understanding between the agencies solidifies this collaboration and advances President Trump’s vision of American space superiority by deploying nuclear reactors on the Moon and in orbit, including the development of a lunar surface reactor by 2030. This effort ensures the United States leads the world in space exploration and commerce. [emphasis mine]

Wanna bet? I’m laying odds that this joint government effort will end up being delayed and overbudget. In fact, the highlighted phrase suggests this work is already experiencing delays and budget overruns. Why else make a big deal about “a renewed commitment”?

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Leaving Earth cover

Leaving Earth: Space Stations, Rival Superpowers, and the Quest for Interplanetary Travel, can be purchased as an ebook everywhere for only $3.99 (before discount) at amazon, Barnes & Noble, all ebook vendors, or direct from my ebook publisher, ebookit.

 

If you buy it from ebookit you don't support the big oppressive tech companies and I get a bigger cut much sooner.

 

Winner of the 2003 Eugene M. Emme Award of the American Astronautical Society.

 
"Leaving Earth is one of the best and certainly the most comprehensive summary of our drive into space that I have ever read. It will be invaluable to future scholars because it will tell them how the next chapter of human history opened." -- Arthur C. Clarke

China launches twice from today different spaceports

5:02 pm

China finally entered the 2026 launch race today with two launches from two of its spaceports.

First, it placed a classified remote sensing satellite into orbit, its Long March 6A rocket lifting off from its Taiyuan spaceport in northeast China.

No word on where the rocket’S lower stages, using very toxic hypergolic fuels, crashed inside China.

About an hour later it launched the 18th group of Guowang (also Satnet) satellites into orbit, its Long March 8A lifting off from its coastal Wenchang spaceport in south China.

Though the lower stages of this rocket fell in the ocean, they did so in the territorial waters of the Philippines, forcing its government to issue a warning to its citizens.

Though China’s state-run press provided no information about the number of Guowang satellites launched, all previous launches using the Long March 8A placed nine in orbit. Based on this guess, this internet-of-things constellation now has 137 satellites in orbit out of a planned 13,000.

The 2026 launch race:

5 SpaceX
2 China

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January 13, 2026 Quick space links

2:55 pm

Courtesy of BtB’s stringer Jay. This post is also an open thread. I welcome my readers to post any comments or additional links relating to any space issues, even if unrelated to the links below.

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Exposed weirdness on floor of Martian crater

12:18 pm

Crazy shapes on floor of Martian crater
Click for original image.

Cool image time! The picture to the right, rotated, cropped, reduced, and sharpened to post here, was taken on November 27, 2025 by the high resolution camera on Mars Reconnaissance Orbiter (MRO).

The science team labels this “exposed crater floor materials”. While properly vague, that hardly suffices. This image could easily fall into my “What the heck?!” category of Martian geology that is difficult to understand, no less explain.

The color strip suggests that dust dominates near the top and bottom, though dust is also present in the middle. The patches with the bluish tint in the middle suggests these lighter swirls and patches are bedrock.

Of course, none of that explains the weird shapes of these patches, nor why they exist at all.

Before delving into those weird shapes, we must note the two vertical black strips to the right of the color strip, indicating a gap in data. Such gaps have been appearing more frequently of late, suggesting MRO’s age, almost a decade in orbit around Mars, is beginning to show itself. A failure in 2023 in one filter band of the high resolution camera already leaves blank the color swath in black and white images. These new blank strips indicate further issues, warning us that we must be prepared for the loss of this camera and orbiter in the somewhat near future.
» Read more

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China claims it has launched and landed a new suborbital reusable spacecraft

10:05 am

Reports from China’s state-run press today and yesterday claim that a pseudo-company, CAS Space (wholly owned by a government agency) has successfully completed the first test flight and parachute recovery of a new small scale suborbital reusable spacecraft dubbed PH-1.

The vehicle lifted off at about 4 pm and reached an altitude of roughly 120 kilometers, passing the Karman line — commonly regarded as the boundary between Earth’s atmosphere and outer space — before descending back to Earth. After re-entering the atmosphere, its recoverable payload cabin deployed a parachute at around 10 km and landed smoothly at a designated site, the company said.

CAS Space said the test validated key technologies, including re-entry deceleration, parachute recovery and precision landing control. Engineers also assessed the performance of critical components during the flight.

A handful of images were released yesterday, but none showed the recovered capsule or its landing.

It is probably that this test was as successful as China’s press claims. It is also possible that this reporting has been carefully designed to hide aspects of the flight that were a failure.

Once developed, CAS Space claims the spacecraft, also dubbed Lihong-1, could be used to provide experiments about 300 seconds of weightlessness. This is not much longer than the periods of weightlessness produced when flying in a “vomit comet” airplane. Moreover, this spacecraft appears too small for manned flights. A larger spacecraft would have to be developed for that purpose.

Hat tip to BtB’s stringer Jay for the link to the images.

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No alien civilizations? After analyzing two decades of data SETI@Home produces 100 signals “worth a second look”

9:08 am

For more than two decades, from 1999 to 2020, the Search for Extraterrestrial Intelligence (SETI) project asked millions of people worldwide to loan it the use of their computers so the project to could analyze twelve billion signal detections that were of interest.

After 10 years of work, the SETI@home team has now finished analyzing those detections, winnowing them down to about a million “candidate” signals and then to 100 that are worth a second look. They have been pointing China’s Five-hundred-meter Aperture Spherical Telescope, a radio telescope referred to as FAST, at these targets since July, hoping to see the signals again.

Though the FAST data are not yet analyzed, [computer scientist and project co-founder David Anderson] admits he doesn’t expect to find a signal from ET.

At the link the SETI team outlined the many reasons, all quite reasonable, for the failure to detect any obvious signals from alien civilizations. The universe is vast, they only looked at a very tiny slice, the variations of signals are many, and the amount of data was still so gigantic analyzing it was endlessly time-consuming. Moreover, they might have been looking at the wrong wavelengths, and there is even the possibility that advanced civilizations simply don’t broadcast at any wavelengths.

Nonetheless, the project was not a failure. It showed it was possible to use a lot of home computers to create the equivalent of a super-computer. The technology and volunteer system it developed has since been used by other scientists on projects like looking for clouds on Mars and studying galaxy types.

The big question remains unanswered however. Considering the numbers of stars in the galaxy, and the recent data that shows most have planets, it seems strange that there have been so few candidate detections, and even these are questionable. Could it actually be the case that we are the first sentient intelligence species in the Milky Way?

There always has to be a first. That humanity might be that first is a mind-blowing thought.

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Mitsubishi buys space on proposed Starlab space station

9:01 am

Starlab design in 2025
The Starlab design in 2025. Click
for original image.

The Japanese company Mitsubishi has now signed an agreement with the consortium building the large single module Starlab space station that will launch on Starship, reserving part of that station for the company’s own use while also increasing its financial investment in the project.

Starlab Space LLC today announced that Mitsubishi Corporation has reserved and pre-purchased capacity on Starlab’s commercial space station, becoming a foundational customer while simultaneously increasing their investment in the company and joining Starlab’s Board of Directors through representative Issei Shinohara.

The expanded partnership includes acquisition of usage rights for designated payload volume and utilization of on orbit laboratory facilities on Starlab, positioning Mitsubishi to accelerate space-based research opportunities for Japanese institutions. This customer commitment is accompanied by an expanded equity partnership that brings additional investment to support Starlab’s development.

Mitsubishi had in April 2024 already joined the Starlab partnership, though almost no details were announced at that time. Today’s announcement provides those details. It also appears Mitsubishi is bypassing Japan’s space agency JAXA, which in the past always ran such international projects. Instead Mitsubishi will directly “support Japanese space development objectives while contributing to advancements in areas such as life sciences research, advanced materials development, and next-generation manufacturing technologies.” In other words, it is telling JAXA to jump in the lake. It can do this better without that government third party, which by the way has not been very effective in recent years.

This deal continues Starlab’s aggressive momentum in recent months. Though Axiom is still listed above it in my rankings below of all the American space stations under development, I now consider the two essentially tied for second.
» Read more

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Portugal signs Artemis Accords

8:30 am

Portugal yesterday become the 60th nation to sign the Artemis Accords, according to an announcement posted by NASA administrator Isaacman on X.

In October 2025 a Latvia government report had indicated that it had signed the accords, making it the 60th nation in this American alliance, but Isaacman’s announcement did not include it.

Thus, Portugal is the 60th nation, with this the full and corrected list: Angola, Argentina, Armenia, Australia, Austria, Bahrain, Bangladesh, Belgium, Brazil, Bulgaria, Canada, Chile, Colombia, Cyprus, Czech Republic, Denmark, Dominican Republic, Ecuador, Estonia, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Hungary, Iceland, India, Israel, Italy, Japan, Liechtenstein, Lithuania, Luxembourg, Malaysia, Mexico, the Netherlands, New Zealand, Nigeria, Norway, Panama, Peru, Poland, Portugal, Romania, Rwanda, Saudi Arabia, Senegal, Singapore, Slovakia, Slovenia, South Korea, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, Thailand, the Philippines, the United Kingdom, the United Arab Emirates, the Ukraine, the United States and Uruguay.

I suspect Latvia will soon make it official, especially because its neighbors, Estonia and Lithuania, have already signed. These three former Soviet vassal states try to work together as this reduces the Russian threat.

Portugal’s signing means practically all of Europe is now on board.

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Isaacman makes it official: Artemis-2 will fly manned around the Moon, despite Orion’s heat shield concerns

8:01 am

Orion's damage heat shield
Damage to Orion heat shield caused during re-entry in 2022,
including “cavities resulting from the loss of large chunks”

In a tweet yesterday afternoon, NASA administration Isaacman essentially endorsed the decision of the NASA managers and engineers in its Artemis program who decided they could live with the engineering issues of Orion’s heat shield (as shown in the image to the right) and fly the upcoming Artemis-2 mission around the Moon carrying four astronauts with that same heat shield design.

Isaacman’s statement however suggests to me that he is not looking at this issue as closely as he should.

Human spaceflight will always involve uncertainty. NASA’s standard engineering process is to identify it early, bound the risk through rigorous analysis and testing, and apply operational mitigations that preserve margin and protect the crew. That process works best when concerns are raised early and debated transparently.

I appreciate the willingness of participants to engage on this subject, including former NASA astronaut Danny Olivas, whose perspective reflects how serious technical questions can be addressed through data, analysis, testing, and decisions grounded in the best engineering judgment available. [emphasis mine]

The highlighted sentence is fundamentally incorrect. » Read more

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SpaceX launches another 29 Starlink satellites

2:49 pm

SpaceX today completed its fifth launch in 2026, placing 29 Starlink satellites into orbit, its Falcon 9 rocket lifting off from Cape Canaveral in Florida.

The first stage competed its 25th flight, landing on a drone ship in the Atlantic.

At this moment the entire 2026 launch race is SpaceX, and SpaceX only. The only other entity to attempt a launch so far in 2026 has been India’s space agency ISRO, and that launch was a failure last night.

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January 12, 2026 Quick space links

2:45 pm

Courtesy of BtB’s stringer Jay. This post is also an open thread. I welcome my readers to post any comments or additional links relating to any space issues, even if unrelated to the links below.

5 comments

New research supports theorized intermittent ocean exiting Mars’ giant Valles Marineris canyon

11:31 am

Theorized ocean from 2019 & 2022 papers
Theorized ocean from 2019 & 2022 papers

Scientists studying the deltas of debris that exist at the base of the cliffs inside Mars’ giant Valles Marineris canyon have concluded the deltas suggest the existence of an ocean there about three billion years ago.

The theorized ocean on the map to the right comes from research published in 2019, with additional support published in 2022. This new work supports those conclusions. From the press release:

At the lower end of the canyon system, so-called “scarp-fronted deposits” were discovered, which are interpreted as “fan deltas”. Fan deltas form where a fan-shaped cone of debris and sand grows directly into a standing body of water. The researchers found that the structures mapped on Mars are very similar to classic deltas on Earth.

…The results also show that the ocean found was at least as large as the Arctic Ocean on Earth. Schlunegger says: “We are not the first to postulate the existence and size of the ocean. However, earlier claims were based on less precise data and partly on indirect arguments. Our reconstruction of the sea level, on the other hand, is based on clear evidence for such a coastline, as we were able to use high-resolution images.”

You can read the new paper here [pdf]., which I strongly suggest as the press release at the link above is very poorly written. The 2019 and 2022 work focused on computer models and the geological features in the region of the theorized ocean, including evidence of possible past tsumanis. This new research focuses on the debris piles at the base of Valles Marineris’ cliffs, all of which appear to end at similar elevations. As this new paper notes:
» Read more

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Comparing the global ground stations of China and the U.S.

10:49 am

Link here. The article is an excellent review of China’s ground stations located globally, noting how its network is far more limited that the United States, caused by a lack of trust of its intentions by foreign countries.

China currently has access to at least 18 overseas space facilities in Africa, Antarctica, Latin America, South Asia, and the South Pacific. There is no evidence to suggest that any of these countries might expel China’s space tracking and surveillance stations anytime soon. But the longevity of these sites is more precarious than those of the United States. Changing political conditions and concern that these sites may play a role in a conflict involving the United States could undermine China’s ability to maintain key parts of its overseas space tracking network.

The article then notes how China has recently lost stations in Australia, New Zealand, and the Czech Republic and has been forced to field a fleet of ocean-going satellite-tracking ships, similar to what the Soviet Union did during the Cold War.

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China proposes building two new satellite constellations, each with about 100,000 satellites

9:46 am

China has filed papers with the International Telecommunication Union (ITU) — the international licensing agency comparable to the U.S.’s FCC — to build two new satellite constellations, each with about 100,000 satellites that would be linked as one gigantic constellation.

The filings, submitted to the ITU in late December 2025, are designated CTC-1 (CHN2025-79441) and CTC-2 (CHN2025-79398), each covering 96,714 satellites in 3,660 orbital planes, according to documents posted in the Union’s “as-received” database.

CTC-1 includes both advance publication information (API) and a more detailed coordination request, reflecting progression through different stages of the ITU regulatory process for a single notional Non-Geostationary Orbit (NGSO) system, while CTC-2 currently remains at the API-only stage. Both reference a “new operating agency” as a placeholder for their operating agencies.

Together, the pair represent one of the largest constellation filings ever made, highlighting the growing competition over orbital and spectrum resources.

Both filings appear to be very preliminary, and in fact appear to be an attempt by China to grab control of as much orbital territory and satellite spectrum as possible, to block others from access. Neither has been approved, and won’t be without a detailed review by the ITU.

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Space station Starlab gets major new investor

9:25 am

Starlab design in 2025
The Starlab design in 2025. Click
for original image.

The consortium led by Voyager Technologies that is building the Starlab space station announced last week that it has obtained a major new investor with more than a billion dollars in assets.

The investor, Seven Grand Managers, is based in New York. The announcement did not specify how much the firm had committed to the Starlab project, but it was clear from this statement that involved significant funds.

“Starlab is being built to be commercially viable from Day One,” said Chris Fahy, founder and chief investment officer, Seven Grand. “Our investment recognizes that commercial infrastructure in the post-ISS era is not speculative, but tangible, bankable and poised for growth. Starlab’s world-class management team and strategic partners are unlocking the beginning of this enormous opportunity.” [emphasis ine]

The highlighted quote suggest Seven Grand was impressed with the Starlab concept, a single very large ready-to-go station launched on Starship. Most of the other stations will involve assembly of multiple modules on multiple launches before they are “ready-to-go.” The only other station launching as a single module, Max Space’s Thunderbird, has only recently entered the race, and is thus far behind.

Starlab had previously raised $383 million in a public stock offering, in addition to the $217.5 million provided by NASA. This new private investment capital further strengthens its future, and suggests the station could get built and launched, even if it fails to win a major station construction contract from NASA.

Below are my rankings of the five American space station projects:
» Read more

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India’s PSLV rocket experiences the second launch failure in a row

11:43 pm

India’s space agency ISRO tonight attempted its first launch in 2026 and the first launch of its PSLV rocket since the rocket’s third stage failed during a May 2025 launch.

Unfortunately the rocket’s third stage failed again, near the end of its engine burn. The animation on the mission control displays, based on actual telemetry, showed the stage suddenly tumbling, its engines no longer firing. It appears something catastrophic occurred the end of that burn.

The rocket’s primary payload (a satellite for India’s military) as well as 18 smallsats for a variety of other customers were all lost.

While ISRO last year was able to complete five successful launches of its larger GSLV and LVM rockets, the PSLV was grounded due to that May 2025 failure. Today’s launch was intended to show the third stage problem had been fixed. Instead, it showed that the modifications hadn’t fixed the problem. In fact. it occurred at almost the same time as in the May launch. The link above is cued to just before the stage began tumbling. In May the failure took place 374 seconds into the flight. Today it occurred at 377 seconds into the flight.

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Former astronaut once again blasts NASA decision to fly Artemis-2 manned

10:13 am

Charles Camarda on the shuttle
Charles Camarda on the first shuttle flight
after the Columbia failure.

The opposition to NASA’s decision to fly humans in the Orion capsule around the Moon with a questionable heat shield continues. Charles Camarda, an engineer and former NASA astronaut who has repeatedly expressed concerns about that heat shield and had been invited to attend the review meeting that NASA administrator Isaacman had arranged to ease his concerns, has now revealed his concerns were not eased in the slightest by that meeting, and that the Ars Technica article by Eric Berger that suggested otherwise was wrong, and that he is still “outraged” at NASA’s bad engineering decisions.

The rage you witnessed was my observing the exact behaviors used to construct risk and flight rationale which caused both Challenger and Columbia Accidents. Using “tools” inappropriately and then claiming results to be “Conservative.” Not to mention the reliance on Monte Carlo simulations to predict failure probabilities which were also proven to be inaccurate by orders of magnitude in my book “Mission Out of Control” which you claim to have read.

I suggest, in the spirit of transparency, you should ask NASA to release just the “Findings” of NESC Report TI-23-01849 Volume I. Finding 1 states the analysis cannot accurately predict crack initiation and propagation at flight conditions. And there was so much more which was conveniently not presented.

In other words, he finds NASA’s engineering claims that Orion’s heat shield will work using a different less stressful return trajectory as it dives back into the atmosphere about 25,000 mph to be false and untrustworthy. Worse, he sees it as proof that this is a continuation of the same culture at NASA that resulted in the Columbia failure.

Some of the exact same people responsible for failing to understand the shortcomings of the Crater Analysis tool (used tiny pieces of foam impacts to Shuttle tiles to predict a strike from a piece of foam which was 6000 larger and which caused the Columbia Accident) were on the Artemis Tiger Team now claiming they could predict the outcome of the Orion heatshield using a tool (similar to CRATER) called the Crack Identification Tool (CIT) which was also not physics based and relied on predictions of the key paramenter, permeability, which they claim to be the “root” cause, pressure, to vary by three orders of magnitude (that’s over 1000x).

In defense of NASA, those engineers had also presented data that showed Orion’s hull was strong enough to survive re-entry, even if the heat shield failed entirely. It is unclear if Camarda’s objections here apply to that data as well.

Regardless, his strong public disagreement with NASA on this once again raises serious questions about the upcoming manned Artemis-2 mission, set to launch sometime in the February to March time frame.

24 comments

SpaceX launches NASA’s Pandora exoplanet space telescope

9:32 am

SpaceX today successfully launched a new NASA space telescope, Pandora, its Falcon 9 rocket lifting off from Vandenberg in California.

Pandora is a smallsat focused on studying 20 stars known to have transiting exoplanets. It will look at each repeatedly to draw as much information about the star and the exoplanet as possible. Also deployed were two other NASA smaller astronomy cubesats.

The Falcon 9 first stage completed its 5th flight, landing back at Vandenberg. The two fairing halves completed their first and seventh flights respectively.

At this moment, SpaceX is the only entity to have launched in 2026. This was its fourth launch.

5 comments

Space Force awards nine launch contracts to SpaceX

1:03 pm

In announcing its next round of satellite launch awards, the Space Force’s Space Systems Command (SSC) has awarded all nine launches (valued at $739 millon total) to SpaceX, bypassing both Blue Origin and ULA.

SSC awarded the [three] SDA-2 missions to SpaceX for launches projected to begin in [the fourth quarter of fiscal year ’26], and awarded the [two] SDA-3 missions to SpaceX for launches to begin in [the third quarter of fiscal year ’27]. SSC also awarded the [four] NTO-5 launches to SpaceX projected to occur in [the first quarter of fiscal year ’27 and the second quarter of fiscal year ’28]. The total value of these awards is $739M.

It is surprising that SpaceX got all nine contracts. Even though SpaceX charges less than ULA, and Blue Origin’s New Glenn rocket is not yet certified by the Pentagon for operational launches, it has been military policy in recent years to distribute this work to more than one launch provider so as to guarantee a redundancy. ULA exists today for expressly that reason. In the past it would have certainly gotten at least one of these launches.

As for Blue Origin, the Space Force could have awarded it at least one of the later launches in ’27 and ’28, contingent on getting New Glenn certified.

That the Space Force bypassed both companies entirely speaks volumes. It appears it has decided to simply go with the best product now available, and to heck with redundancy.

20 comments

French rocket startup MaiaSpace announces its launch schedule

12:36 pm

The French rocket startup MaiaSpace is now planning to launch a suborbital test rocket in 2026 to be followed by its first orbital flight in 2027.

As the company works toward the commencement of commercial operations in 2027, it is planning to launch an initial suborbital demonstration flight in late 2026 to validate key elements of the Maia launch system. The rocket will be launched in its full two-stage configuration and will carry a reduced propellant load, with MaiaSpace aiming for a minimum altitude of 100 kilometres. … “For what concerns our first flight, we will deploy a minimum viable product designed to test critical phases (lift-off, stages separation, engine ignition of the second stage, …) and to validate the key features required for our first orbital flight.”

Maiaspace is a wholly owned subsidiary of ArianeGroup, the Airbus-Safran partnership that builds the Ariane-6 rocket for Arianespace. Its goal with Maiaspace is to quickly develop a small reusable rocket that can compete with the other new European startups in Germany (Isar and Rocket Factory Augsburg) and Spain (PLD).

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FCC approves SpaceX request to expand Starlink by 7,500 satellites

12:21 pm

The Federal Communications Commission (FCC) yesterday approved SpaceX’s request to both expand its Starlink constellation by 7,500 satellites as well as use additional bands of spectrum.

The Federal Communications Commission on Friday approved SpaceX’s request to launch an additional 7,500 of its Starlink Gen2 satellites, bringing the total allowed Gen2 constellation to 15,000. The agency also granted the company’s request to operate in additional spectrum bands and to operate at higher power in other bands between 10.7-30 GigaHertz (GHz), pending the completion of an existing FCC rulemaking where the question is being considered.

…The order also allows SpaceX satellites to use lower orbits, down to 340 kilometers, and provide direct-to-cell service. The company is seeking approval for a separate 15,000-satellite constellation that would provide upgraded direct-to-cell service using spectrum it’s purchasing from EchoStar.

The article notes that under the Trump administration has also revamped the FCC’s grant program, that under Biden canceled an $886 million grant, claiming absurdly that Starlink did not provide service to rural areas. Under the new program “SpaceX is set to serve the most locations of any ISP under the $42.45 billion Broadband Equity, Access, and Deployment program after new Trump administration rules that made it easier for satellite providers to compete for funding.”

Not that SpaceX or any of the other constellations need this government grant. Trump would serve the country better to shut the program down.

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An outline of NASA’s present schedule leading up to the Artemis-2 manned lunar fly-by mission

8:11 am

Link here. The mission will slingshot four astronauts around the Moon and back to Earth. The update includes lots of details about the rollout, the dress rehearsal countdown, the follow-up, and finally the various launch windows and the requirements that determine them.

This paragraph however about those requirements struck me:

The launch day and time must allow SLS to be able to deliver Orion into a high Earth orbit where the crew and ground teams will evaluate the spacecraft’s life support systems before the crew ventures to the Moon.

That life support system will be making its first flight in space, with four humans as the guinea pigs. Though this is another example of NASA putting schedule ahead of safety (the system should have flown at least once unmanned), it does indicate the agency recognizes the risk it is taking, and has added this extra longer orbit to give engineers time to test the system.

There are three launch windows, within which there are only five available launch dates:

January 31 to February 14 (February 6, 7, 8, 10, and 11)
February 28 to March 13 (March 6, 7, 8, 9, 11)
March 27 to April 10 (April 1, 3, 4, 5, 6)

In 2022, once NASA managers chose their first launch window, they were able to get the rocket off on the first attempt. There were no scrubs or aborts, though prior to that attempt the launch date was delayed numerous time over five years. Based on that past history, it is likely the agency will succeed on its first attempt in February, barring weather issues.

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ISS crew to return on Wednesday January 14, 2026

10:40 pm

The present four-person expedition 11 crew on ISS, which has one member with an undisclosed sudden health issue that needs addressing on the ground, will undock and return to Earth on January 14, 2025 in SpaceX’s Endeavour capsule.

NASA and SpaceX are targeting no earlier than 5 p.m. EST, Wednesday, Jan. 14, for the undocking of the agency’s SpaceX Crew-11 mission from the International Space Station, pending weather conditions. … NASA astronauts Zena Cardman and Mike Fincke, JAXA (Japan Aerospace Exploration Agency) astronaut Kimiya Yui, and Roscosmos cosmonaut Oleg Platonov will splash down off the coast of California at approximately 3:40 a.m. on Thursday, Jan. 15.

Mission managers continue monitoring conditions in the recovery area, as undocking of the SpaceX Dragon depends on spacecraft readiness, recovery team readiness, weather, sea states, and other factors. NASA and SpaceX will select a specific splashdown time and location closer to the Crew-11 spacecraft undocking.

NASA has released no information about the medical issue that canceled a spacewalk and prompted the early return of this crew. We do not even know the name of the impacted astronaut.

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