No alien civilizations? After analyzing two decades of data SETI@Home produces 100 signals “worth a second look”

9:08 am

For more than two decades, from 1999 to 2020, the Search for Extraterrestrial Intelligence (SETI) project asked millions of people worldwide to loan it the use of their computers so the project to could analyze twelve billion signal detections that were of interest.

After 10 years of work, the SETI@home team has now finished analyzing those detections, winnowing them down to about a million “candidate” signals and then to 100 that are worth a second look. They have been pointing China’s Five-hundred-meter Aperture Spherical Telescope, a radio telescope referred to as FAST, at these targets since July, hoping to see the signals again.

Though the FAST data are not yet analyzed, [computer scientist and project co-founder David Anderson] admits he doesn’t expect to find a signal from ET.

At the link the SETI team outlined the many reasons, all quite reasonable, for the failure to detect any obvious signals from alien civilizations. The universe is vast, they only looked at a very tiny slice, the variations of signals are many, and the amount of data was still so gigantic analyzing it was endlessly time-consuming. Moreover, they might have been looking at the wrong wavelengths, and there is even the possibility that advanced civilizations simply don’t broadcast at any wavelengths.

Nonetheless, the project was not a failure. It showed it was possible to use a lot of home computers to create the equivalent of a super-computer. The technology and volunteer system it developed has since been used by other scientists on projects like looking for clouds on Mars and studying galaxy types.

The big question remains unanswered however. Considering the numbers of stars in the galaxy, and the recent data that shows most have planets, it seems strange that there have been so few candidate detections, and even these are questionable. Could it actually be the case that we are the first sentient intelligence species in the Milky Way?

There always has to be a first. That humanity might be that first is a mind-blowing thought.

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Mitsubishi buys space on proposed Starlab space station

9:01 am

Starlab design in 2025
The Starlab design in 2025. Click
for original image.

The Japanese company Mitsubishi has now signed an agreement with the consortium building the large single module Starlab space station that will launch on Starship, reserving part of that station for the company’s own use while also increasing its financial investment in the project.

Starlab Space LLC today announced that Mitsubishi Corporation has reserved and pre-purchased capacity on Starlab’s commercial space station, becoming a foundational customer while simultaneously increasing their investment in the company and joining Starlab’s Board of Directors through representative Issei Shinohara.

The expanded partnership includes acquisition of usage rights for designated payload volume and utilization of on orbit laboratory facilities on Starlab, positioning Mitsubishi to accelerate space-based research opportunities for Japanese institutions. This customer commitment is accompanied by an expanded equity partnership that brings additional investment to support Starlab’s development.

Mitsubishi had in April 2024 already joined the Starlab partnership, though almost no details were announced at that time. Today’s announcement provides those details. It also appears Mitsubishi is bypassing Japan’s space agency JAXA, which in the past always ran such international projects. Instead Mitsubishi will directly “support Japanese space development objectives while contributing to advancements in areas such as life sciences research, advanced materials development, and next-generation manufacturing technologies.” In other words, it is telling JAXA to jump in the lake. It can do this better without that government third party, which by the way has not been very effective in recent years.

This deal continues Starlab’s aggressive momentum in recent months. Though Axiom is still listed above it in my rankings below of all the American space stations under development, I now consider the two essentially tied for second.
» Read more

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Genesis cover

On Christmas Eve 1968 three Americans became the first humans to visit another world. What they did to celebrate was unexpected and profound, and will be remembered throughout all human history. Genesis: the Story of Apollo 8, Robert Zimmerman's classic history of humanity's first journey to another world, tells that story, and it is now available as both an ebook and an audiobook, both with a foreword by Valerie Anders and a new introduction by Robert Zimmerman.

The print edition can be purchased at Amazon or any other book seller. If you want an autographed copy the price is $60 for the hardback and $45 for the paperback, plus $8 shipping for each. Go here for purchasing details. The ebook is available everywhere for $5.99 (before discount) at amazon, or direct from my ebook publisher, ebookit. If you buy it from ebookit you don't support the big tech companies and the author gets a bigger cut much sooner.


The audiobook is also available at all these vendors, and is also free with a 30-day trial membership to Audible.
 

"Not simply about one mission, [Genesis] is also the history of America's quest for the moon... Zimmerman has done a masterful job of tying disparate events together into a solid account of one of America's greatest human triumphs."--San Antonio Express-News

Portugal signs Artemis Accords

8:30 am

Portugal yesterday become the 60th nation to sign the Artemis Accords, according to an announcement posted by NASA administrator Isaacman on X.

In October 2025 a Latvia government report had indicated that it had signed the accords, making it the 60th nation in this American alliance, but Isaacman’s announcement did not include it.

Thus, Portugal is the 60th nation, with this the full and corrected list: Angola, Argentina, Armenia, Australia, Austria, Bahrain, Bangladesh, Belgium, Brazil, Bulgaria, Canada, Chile, Colombia, Cyprus, Czech Republic, Denmark, Dominican Republic, Ecuador, Estonia, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Hungary, Iceland, India, Israel, Italy, Japan, Liechtenstein, Lithuania, Luxembourg, Malaysia, Mexico, the Netherlands, New Zealand, Nigeria, Norway, Panama, Peru, Poland, Portugal, Romania, Rwanda, Saudi Arabia, Senegal, Singapore, Slovakia, Slovenia, South Korea, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, Thailand, the Philippines, the United Kingdom, the United Arab Emirates, the Ukraine, the United States and Uruguay.

I suspect Latvia will soon make it official, especially because its neighbors, Estonia and Lithuania, have already signed. These three former Soviet vassal states try to work together as this reduces the Russian threat.

Portugal’s signing means practically all of Europe is now on board.

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Isaacman makes it official: Artemis-2 will fly manned around the Moon, despite Orion’s heat shield concerns

8:01 am

Orion's damage heat shield
Damage to Orion heat shield caused during re-entry in 2022,
including “cavities resulting from the loss of large chunks”

In a tweet yesterday afternoon, NASA administration Isaacman essentially endorsed the decision of the NASA managers and engineers in its Artemis program who decided they could live with the engineering issues of Orion’s heat shield (as shown in the image to the right) and fly the upcoming Artemis-2 mission around the Moon carrying four astronauts with that same heat shield design.

Isaacman’s statement however suggests to me that he is not looking at this issue as closely as he should.

Human spaceflight will always involve uncertainty. NASA’s standard engineering process is to identify it early, bound the risk through rigorous analysis and testing, and apply operational mitigations that preserve margin and protect the crew. That process works best when concerns are raised early and debated transparently.

I appreciate the willingness of participants to engage on this subject, including former NASA astronaut Danny Olivas, whose perspective reflects how serious technical questions can be addressed through data, analysis, testing, and decisions grounded in the best engineering judgment available. [emphasis mine]

The highlighted sentence is fundamentally incorrect. » Read more

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Conscious Choice cover

Now available in hardback and paperback as well as ebook!

From the press release: In this ground-breaking new history of early America, historian Robert Zimmerman not only exposes the lie behind The New York Times 1619 Project that falsely claims slavery is central to the history of the United States, he also provides profound lessons about the nature of human societies, lessons important for Americans today as well as for all future settlers on Mars and elsewhere in space.

 
Conscious Choice: The origins of slavery in America and why it matters today and for our future in outer space, is a riveting page-turning story that documents how slavery slowly became pervasive in the southern British colonies of North America, colonies founded by a people and culture that not only did not allow slavery but in every way were hostile to the practice.  
Conscious Choice does more however. In telling the tragic history of the Virginia colony and the rise of slavery there, Zimmerman lays out the proper path for creating healthy societies in places like the Moon and Mars.

 

“Zimmerman’s ground-breaking history provides every future generation the basic framework for establishing new societies on other worlds. We would be wise to heed what he says.” —Robert Zubrin, founder of the Mars Society.

 

All editions are available at Amazon, Barnes & Noble, and all book vendors, with the ebook priced at $5.99 before discount. All editions can also be purchased direct from the ebook publisher, ebookit, in which case you don't support the big tech companies and the author gets a bigger cut much sooner.

 

Autographed printed copies are also available at discount directly from the author (hardback $29.95; paperback $14.95; Shipping cost for either: $6.00). Just send an email to zimmerman @ nasw dot org.

SpaceX launches another 29 Starlink satellites

2:49 pm

SpaceX today completed its fifth launch in 2026, placing 29 Starlink satellites into orbit, its Falcon 9 rocket lifting off from Cape Canaveral in Florida.

The first stage competed its 25th flight, landing on a drone ship in the Atlantic.

At this moment the entire 2026 launch race is SpaceX, and SpaceX only. The only other entity to attempt a launch so far in 2026 has been India’s space agency ISRO, and that launch was a failure last night.

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Leaving Earth cover

Leaving Earth: Space Stations, Rival Superpowers, and the Quest for Interplanetary Travel, can be purchased as an ebook everywhere for only $3.99 (before discount) at amazon, Barnes & Noble, all ebook vendors, or direct from my ebook publisher, ebookit.

If you buy it from ebookit you don't support the big oppressive tech companies and I get a bigger cut much sooner.

 

Winner of the 2003 Eugene M. Emme Award of the American Astronautical Society.

 
"Leaving Earth is one of the best and certainly the most comprehensive summary of our drive into space that I have ever read. It will be invaluable to future scholars because it will tell them how the next chapter of human history opened." -- Arthur C. Clarke

January 12, 2026 Quick space links

2:45 pm

Courtesy of BtB’s stringer Jay. This post is also an open thread. I welcome my readers to post any comments or additional links relating to any space issues, even if unrelated to the links below.

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New research supports theorized intermittent ocean exiting Mars’ giant Valles Marineris canyon

11:31 am

Theorized ocean from 2019 & 2022 papers
Theorized ocean from 2019 & 2022 papers

Scientists studying the deltas of debris that exist at the base of the cliffs inside Mars’ giant Valles Marineris canyon have concluded the deltas suggest the existence of an ocean there about three billion years ago.

The theorized ocean on the map to the right comes from research published in 2019, with additional support published in 2022. This new work supports those conclusions. From the press release:

At the lower end of the canyon system, so-called “scarp-fronted deposits” were discovered, which are interpreted as “fan deltas”. Fan deltas form where a fan-shaped cone of debris and sand grows directly into a standing body of water. The researchers found that the structures mapped on Mars are very similar to classic deltas on Earth.

…The results also show that the ocean found was at least as large as the Arctic Ocean on Earth. Schlunegger says: “We are not the first to postulate the existence and size of the ocean. However, earlier claims were based on less precise data and partly on indirect arguments. Our reconstruction of the sea level, on the other hand, is based on clear evidence for such a coastline, as we were able to use high-resolution images.”

You can read the new paper here [pdf]., which I strongly suggest as the press release at the link above is very poorly written. The 2019 and 2022 work focused on computer models and the geological features in the region of the theorized ocean, including evidence of possible past tsumanis. This new research focuses on the debris piles at the base of Valles Marineris’ cliffs, all of which appear to end at similar elevations. As this new paper notes:
» Read more

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Comparing the global ground stations of China and the U.S.

10:49 am

Link here. The article is an excellent review of China’s ground stations located globally, noting how its network is far more limited that the United States, caused by a lack of trust of its intentions by foreign countries.

China currently has access to at least 18 overseas space facilities in Africa, Antarctica, Latin America, South Asia, and the South Pacific. There is no evidence to suggest that any of these countries might expel China’s space tracking and surveillance stations anytime soon. But the longevity of these sites is more precarious than those of the United States. Changing political conditions and concern that these sites may play a role in a conflict involving the United States could undermine China’s ability to maintain key parts of its overseas space tracking network.

The article then notes how China has recently lost stations in Australia, New Zealand, and the Czech Republic and has been forced to field a fleet of ocean-going satellite-tracking ships, similar to what the Soviet Union did during the Cold War.

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China proposes building two new satellite constellations, each with about 100,000 satellites

9:46 am

China has filed papers with the International Telecommunication Union (ITU) — the international licensing agency comparable to the U.S.’s FCC — to build two new satellite constellations, each with about 100,000 satellites that would be linked as one gigantic constellation.

The filings, submitted to the ITU in late December 2025, are designated CTC-1 (CHN2025-79441) and CTC-2 (CHN2025-79398), each covering 96,714 satellites in 3,660 orbital planes, according to documents posted in the Union’s “as-received” database.

CTC-1 includes both advance publication information (API) and a more detailed coordination request, reflecting progression through different stages of the ITU regulatory process for a single notional Non-Geostationary Orbit (NGSO) system, while CTC-2 currently remains at the API-only stage. Both reference a “new operating agency” as a placeholder for their operating agencies.

Together, the pair represent one of the largest constellation filings ever made, highlighting the growing competition over orbital and spectrum resources.

Both filings appear to be very preliminary, and in fact appear to be an attempt by China to grab control of as much orbital territory and satellite spectrum as possible, to block others from access. Neither has been approved, and won’t be without a detailed review by the ITU.

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Space station Starlab gets major new investor

9:25 am

Starlab design in 2025
The Starlab design in 2025. Click
for original image.

The consortium led by Voyager Technologies that is building the Starlab space station announced last week that it has obtained a major new investor with more than a billion dollars in assets.

The investor, Seven Grand Managers, is based in New York. The announcement did not specify how much the firm had committed to the Starlab project, but it was clear from this statement that involved significant funds.

“Starlab is being built to be commercially viable from Day One,” said Chris Fahy, founder and chief investment officer, Seven Grand. “Our investment recognizes that commercial infrastructure in the post-ISS era is not speculative, but tangible, bankable and poised for growth. Starlab’s world-class management team and strategic partners are unlocking the beginning of this enormous opportunity.” [emphasis ine]

The highlighted quote suggest Seven Grand was impressed with the Starlab concept, a single very large ready-to-go station launched on Starship. Most of the other stations will involve assembly of multiple modules on multiple launches before they are “ready-to-go.” The only other station launching as a single module, Max Space’s Thunderbird, has only recently entered the race, and is thus far behind.

Starlab had previously raised $383 million in a public stock offering, in addition to the $217.5 million provided by NASA. This new private investment capital further strengthens its future, and suggests the station could get built and launched, even if it fails to win a major station construction contract from NASA.

Below are my rankings of the five American space station projects:
» Read more

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India’s PSLV rocket experiences the second launch failure in a row

11:43 pm

India’s space agency ISRO tonight attempted its first launch in 2026 and the first launch of its PSLV rocket since the rocket’s third stage failed during a May 2025 launch.

Unfortunately the rocket’s third stage failed again, near the end of its engine burn. The animation on the mission control displays, based on actual telemetry, showed the stage suddenly tumbling, its engines no longer firing. It appears something catastrophic occurred the end of that burn.

The rocket’s primary payload (a satellite for India’s military) as well as 18 smallsats for a variety of other customers were all lost.

While ISRO last year was able to complete five successful launches of its larger GSLV and LVM rockets, the PSLV was grounded due to that May 2025 failure. Today’s launch was intended to show the third stage problem had been fixed. Instead, it showed that the modifications hadn’t fixed the problem. In fact. it occurred at almost the same time as in the May launch. The link above is cued to just before the stage began tumbling. In May the failure took place 374 seconds into the flight. Today it occurred at 377 seconds into the flight.

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