Tag: capitalism

In a newspaper interview Richard Branson today claimed that Virgin Galactic is “just three months away from having a fully-functioning rocket that is capable of taking passengers into orbit.”

5:46 am

In a newspaper interview Richard Branson today claimed that Virgin Galactic is “just three months away from having a fully-functioning rocket that is capable of taking passengers into orbit.”

At this moment I am sadly very skeptical. The company has only done two powered flights of SpaceShipTwo, and the highest it has gone is about 70,000 feet. To make it fully-functioning, they need to fly it 70 miles high. And the rumors about their engine problems suggest they won’t be able to do this until next year, at the soonest.

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A drone that can fly continuously for five years at 65,000 feet.

6:34 pm

A drone that can fly continuously for five years at 65,000 feet.

The Solara series are designed to be a fraction of the cost of a satellite, but operate many similar tasks, such as surveillance, crop-monitoring, weather and disaster oversight, or any other monitoring that low-altitude satellites track. The Solara aircraft could cost less than $2 million, according to Forbes, which quotes Dustin Sanders, Titan’s chief electrical engineer, as saying, “We’re trying to do a single-million-dollar-per-aircraft platform. And the operation cost is almost nothing — you’re paying some dude to watch the payload and make sure the aircraft doesn’t do anything stupid.”

As with any new invention, the use of this drone carries with it both good and bad possibilities.

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The world that works vs the world that doesn’t.

6:18 pm

The world that works vs the world that doesn’t.

In Washington, penalties for failure are few: Has anyone been fired over the Obamacare launch debacle? Problems are always the fault of circumstances, or the Evil Opposition, or are simply swept under the rug. Of course, that means there’s not much learning from mistakes, and “more of the same, only we’ll try harder!” is a common response. As in The Hunger Games, life is always posh in Capital City; suffering is for the poor schlubs out in the provinces.

In the world that works, on the other hand, mistakes are painful: They cost people jobs, they cost investors money, they result in bad publicity that’s harder to explain away. Thus, people learn from them. Unsurprisingly, the world that works is where the money that Washington spends ultimately comes from.

The problem is that the bigger Washington gets, the less room is left for the world that works. As more and more of American life is taken over by the world of politics — in which wealth is not generated, but taken from one’s opponents and distributed to one’s supporters — a smaller share is left for the world that works.

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Stratolaunch has now released some preliminary details about its commercial rocket, including images.

11:00 pm

Stratolaunch has now released some preliminary details about its commercial rocket, including images.

Work has also begun on assembling the giant carrier airplane that will be used to take the rocket aloft.

Posted from lovely Williamsport, Pennsylvania. Tomorrow I will be busy visiting old friends as well as poking around an old Pennsylvania ghost town, so posting should be light.

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Virgin Galactic has signed a television deal for a reality show where the winner would get a flight into space on SpaceShipTwo.

7:52 am

Virgin Galactic has signed a television deal for a reality show where the winner would get a flight into space on SpaceShipTwo.

This sounds great, but the company first has to solve the very serious engineering problems it has with SpaceShipTwo’s engine, which apparently is going to cause a delay of at least one year in the ship’s development. Thus, this announcement is really nothing more than a publicity stunt designed to distract the public from those problems.

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Orbital Sciences is suing the government agency that operates the Wallops Island spaceport, saying it is refusing to pay a $16.5 million bill.

7:43 am

Orbital Sciences is suing the government agency that operates the Wallops Island spaceport, saying it is refusing to pay a $16.5 million bill.

I am not surprised. One of the prime reasons the launch of Antares and Cygnus was delayed by more than a year was because this same government agency had failed to upgrade the launchpad as promised, and Orbital Sciences was eventually forced to step in, take over, and spend millions to do the work itself.

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The failure of the Falcon 9 upper stage prior to a final engine test on Sunday’s launch may delay the rocket’s next commercial launch.

6:52 pm

The failure of the Falcon 9 upper stage prior to a final engine test on Sunday’s launch may delay the rocket’s next commercial launch.

SpaceX officials said after the Sept. 29 launch that the nonignition of the upper stage did not appear to be of a sort to delay the SES flight for very long. Feltes said SES is will hoping for a launch as soon as October, but added that if it slipped to November the company was willing to wait. The fact that SES will be awaiting details from SpaceX “does not mean that we reject the flight as a qualification flight,” Feltes said. “We still plan to be on the next Falcon flight, once SpaceX has solved the problem. But we need a technical explanation. We do need reignition of the stage for our satellite.”

The government shutdown also means that the Florida spaceport is presently unavailable for this launch (which is hardly a way to run a commercial operation). This fact makes it even more likely that SpaceX will eventually move all its commercial launches to its own spaceport, probably in Texas.

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SpaceX is denying rumors that the upper stage of its Falcon 9 rocket exploded after completing its mission.

4:17 pm

SpaceX is denying rumors that the upper stage of its Falcon 9 rocket exploded after completing its mission.

The speculation was spawned in part by the fact that the U.S. Space Surveillance Network is currently tracking more orbital objects associated with the launch than expected. … “Regarding the rumors you may have heard about the Falcon 9 second stage, in short, our data confirms there was no rupture of any kind on the second stage,” SpaceX spokeswoman Emily Shanklin wrote in an Oct. 1 email. “Following separation of the satellites to their correct orbit, the Falcon 9 second stage underwent a controlled venting of propellants … and the stage was successfully safed. During this process, it is possible insulation came off the fuel dome on the second stage and is the source of what some observers incorrectly interpreted as a rupture in the second stage.” SpaceX attempted to reignite the upper stage after payload separation in a demonstration of a capability it will need to place satellites into the proper geostationary transfer orbit. However, the reignition sequence was aborted after a problem was detected, SpaceX Chief Executive Elon Musk told reporters in a postlaunch teleconference.

Anything is possible, but I am inclined to believe SpaceX in this case. Moreover, even if true, the bottom line is that the rocket launch was still a complete success, putting its payloads in orbit as promised.

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Russia’s Proton rocket returned to flight today with a successful launch of a commercial satellite.

4:21 pm

Russia’s Proton rocket returned to flight today with a successful launch of a commercial satellite.

This launch only occurred about two hours ago and all appears at this time to be going well. For the Russians this is a crucial flight, as they need to demonstrate that they are cleaning up their quality control problems following the spectacular Proton launch failure in July in order to compete in the increasingly competitive launch market.

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SpaceX successfully launched its upgraded Falcon 9 rocket today, putting its first commercial payload into orbit.

4:13 pm

SpaceX successfully launched its upgraded Falcon 9 rocket today, putting its first commercial payload into orbit.

They also attempted to restart both the first and second stages after separation to test the possibility of eventually getting them back to Earth undamaged.

Two post-mission burns of the boost stage were attempted. The first, involving three of the rocket’s nine first-stage Merlin 1D engines, was successful in slowing its descent into the atmosphere. But SpaceX was unable to carry out a second burn of a single engine after the stage went into a spin and ran out of fuel due to what Musk described as a centrifuge effect. The second burn was intended to further slow the first stage’s descent, and because it did not take place as planned, the stage hit the ocean hard, Musk said. Parts of the first stage had been recovered, he added.

The restart of the second stage never occurred due to what Elon Musk called “minor” issues.

The successes today of both Falcon 9 and Cygnus once again demonstrate the advantages of allowing private companies the freedom to design and build rockets they then own and can sell on the open market. The cost to get these space vehicles built was far lower than anything NASA has built in decades, and both got finished much faster as well.

Getting into space can only get cheaper and faster from here.

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Japan’s H-2A rocket, built by Mitsubishi, has won its first commercial contract.

9:06 pm

The competition heats up: Japan’s H-2A rocket, built by Mitsubishi, has won its first commercial contract.

This is a surprise, as Japan has tried for years to sell the H-2A to commercial satellite carriers, with no success. That they have finally succeeded suggests to me that the demand for launch services is increasing, and there is room for more companies to provide the service.

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The Coney Island of the Smokies

8:12 pm

The main drag in Gatlinburg, Tennessee

I must admit I did not expect this. When we made our reservations to stay in a timeshare motel in Gatlinburg, Tennessee, I imagined the town would resemble the small West Virginia towns I am very familiar with from my many years of caving in that state. There would be a relatively quiet main street, with some restaurants, a supermarket, one or two gas stations, and some basic shopping.

What I found instead is a wonderfully energetic example of American capitalism, a carnival amusement area reminiscent of the amusement spots of the past and most epitomized by Brooklyn’s Coney Island.

When I was growing up in Brooklyn in the late 1950s and 1960s, Coney Island was a shadow of its grand past, but it still carried with it much of its old glory. You could stroll along the boardwalk or Surf Avenue and visit hundreds of shops, stores, and amusement rides, most of which were independently owned. In addition, the island also had several larger private amusement parks, such as Steeplechase Park, Astroland, and Luna Park (which unfortunately had closed before I ever saw it), each of which had a collection of their own rides and amusements. With some, like Steeplechase and Luna, you had to pay a separate admission price to get in.

This is exactly what I discovered here in Gatlinburg and the adjacent towns of Pigeon Forge and Sevierville.
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India has now rescheduled the launch of its home-built GSLV rocket for December 15.

9:09 am

India has now rescheduled the launch of its home-built GSLV rocket for December 15.

The launch of Geosynchronous Satellite Launch Vehicle (GSLV), which was deferred on August 19 following a flaw in the rocket, will take place on December 15, ISRO head said here today. “The launch of GSLV D5 satellite which was postponed on August 19 about two hours before liftoff after detection of a fuel leak in the rockets’ second stage will now be held on December 15,” ISRO chairman Dr K Radhakrishnan said at an interactive session with students and teachers here.

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Due to problems developing SpaceShipTwo’s engine, it appears that its first flight into space will not occur sooner than February 2014

9:06 am

Due to problems developing SpaceShipTwo’s engine, it appears that its first flight into space will not occur sooner than February 2014, and that commercial operations will likely not begin before the end of 2014.

The problem is that despite public claims to the contrary, the nitrous oxide-rubber hybrid has never been hot fired on the ground at full duration, sources indicate. And the engine is not powerful enough even when fully fired to get SpaceShipTwo into space with any actual payloads (i.e., six wealthy passengers). Even as Scaled Composites has pursued the flight test program and Virgin Galactic has issued optimistic flight predictions that commercial flights are only months away, the two companies have been secretly working on alternatives to the nitrous oxide-rubber engine they have been using to explore SpaceShipTwo’s flight envelope. Sources report that the development of alternative hybrid designs has been running into trouble. An engine that used nitrous oxide and nylon exploded on Scaled Composites test stand on May 17. The nozzle and rocket casing were thrown clear and the test stand was wrecked. The composite tank holding the nitrous oxide did not explode, but it was damaged to the point where it could not be reused.

This is very bad news. To develop a new engine at this late stage of development will be quite difficult. The spaceship itself was designed specifically with the first engine in mind. Any replacement will likely be different in power and design and require some changes to the ship.

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A new delay in the launch of a Russian weather satellite illustrates the need that small satellite owners have for their own rocket.

10:14 am

Opportunity knocks: A new delay in the launch of a Russian weather satellite illustrates the need that small satellite owners have for their own rocket.

The planned mid-December launch of a Russian Soyuz/Fregat rocket carrying a Russian weather satellite and a half-dozen small satellites for British, Norwegian and Canadian customers has been delayed again, to late February, following the latest series of issues with the main satellite payload, industry officials said. The delay, which is not the first for this launch, illustrates the immutable reality confronted by owners of small satellites manifested as secondary payloads: You launch at the convenience of the principal passenger, and not before.

If there was a small rocket available for these small satellites, not only would they flock to it, the number of small satellite customers would probably skyrocket, as the only thing preventing the funding of many nanosats is the lack of the launcher.

On another note, the technical delays for this Russian satellite and its rocket once again highlight the quality control problems within the Russian aerospace industry.

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China today successfully launched a new quick response rocket.

9:57 am

The competition heats up: China today successfully launched a brand new quick response rocket.

Very little is known about the Kuaizhou rocket, other than it was developed by CASIC. No photos or graphics exist in the public domain. It is also known the rocket – likely on its test flight – was carrying a satellite, called Kuaizhou-1. Built by the Harbin Institute of Technology, the new satellite will be used for emergency data monitoring and imaging, under the control of the national remote sensing center at the national Academy of Sciences. The new satellite is probably part of a “quick response satellite system” model that was already announced as in the works by the Chinese.

The rocket appears to be fueled entirely by solid rocket motors. Thus, they could build a bunch and have them in storage, ready to go at any time.

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China announced today that it plans to hold the launch cost of its Long March rockets at $70 million per launch.

4:56 pm

The competition heats up: China announced today that it plans to hold the launch cost of its Long March rockets at $70 million per launch.

Until Space Exploration Technologies Corp. (SpaceX) of Hawthorne, Calif., arrived on the scene with advertised launch prices that bested even those of the Chinese, the Long March was considered the low-cost option among providers of rockets carrying satellites to geostationary transfer orbit, where most communications satellites are dropped off in orbit. [Chinese] officials point out that SpaceX has yet to prove its ability to maintain its prices – between $58 million and around $65 million for commercial customers – as it inaugurates its new Falcon 9 v1.1 rocket and ramps production to meet the company’s large commercial backlog.

China is gambling that its proven track record will entice customers to pay them the extra money over SpaceX’s unproven Falcon 9.

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Because of the scheduled arrival of a Soyuz manned capsule to ISS on Wednesday, NASA and Orbital Sciences have decided to delay Cygnus’s rendezvous and berthing until Saturday.

8:53 am

Because of the scheduled arrival of a Soyuz manned capsule to ISS on Wednesday, NASA and Orbital Sciences have decided to delay Cygnus’s rendezvous and berthing until Saturday.

As far as I can tell, the software glitch and the delay are relatively minor issues, being handled with due care and caution, and will not prevent the eventual docking. More important, they are not serious enough to require any major design changes to Cygnus, which means the freighter will be able to begin operational flights soon after this demo flight is completed.

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The Russians have now rescheduled for September 30 the next Proton rocket launch.

10:00 am

The competition heats up: The Russians have now rescheduled for September 30 the next Proton rocket launch.

The Russian Proton rocket’s return to flight following its spectacular July 2 failure has been rescheduled for Sept. 30 following a review of a first-stage valve issue and discussions between the Russian and Kazakh governments over launch safety issues.

They claim the main reason for the delay was the issues of clean-up following the July 2 launch crash, but that “first-stage valve issue” intrigues me. They have been very closed-mouth about it, yet it very clearly existed.

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