Tag: capitalism

India and France sign deal to partner selling flights on their rockets

9:21 am

India and France have apparently signed a deal to not compete in selling flights on their biggest rockets, but instead work together to keep prices under their control.

Under the terms of the MoU [memorandum of understanding], NSIL’s [the commercial space division of India’s government] heavy-lift launch vehicle, LVM-3, and Arianespace’s Ariane-6 will be at the forefront of this joint endeavor.

The article at the link provides no information at all about the specifics of this deal. I am simply guessing that is it designed to control prices, especially because France by itself does not own the Ariane-6 and thus can not award launch contracts for it. All it can do is convince India to not charge less for its comparable LVM rocket (a variation of its GSLV rocket). If so, it is a bad deal for India, which can easily undercut any price that Arianespace can charge for the expensive Ariane-6. It will drive business from India, since other companies (such as SpaceX, ULA, and hopefully Blue Origin in the near future) will be under no obligation to match Ariane-6’s high cost.

It is also possible that the deal is simply an empty political gesture, timed during the visit to India by France’s President Emmanuel Macron. Its vague language suggests this. It gives Macron a photo op, but as an MOU it leaves India under no long term obligation.

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The Pentagon picks Northrop Grumman’s orbital refueling port as its standard

9:05 am

Having reviewed the designs of several orbital refueling ports, the Space Force has chosen Northrop Grumman’s port as the standard it wishes future military satellites to use.

In a move that could shape the in-orbit satellite servicing market, the U.S. Space Force’s Space Systems Command designated Northrop Grumman’s Passive Refueling Module (PRM) as a favored interface to enable future in-space refueling of military satellites. The PRM has a docking mechanism to allow a refueling vehicle in orbit to transfer propellant to another satellite to extend its useful life.

Northrop Grumman said the Space Systems Command, which oversees in-space logistics and services programs, also will support the company’s development of an orbital fuel tanker for geosynchronous orbit missions that would carry up to 1,000 kilograms of hydrazine fuel and deliver it to client satellites on demand.

Lauren Smith, program manager for in-space refueling at Northrop Grumman, said the selection of the PRM was based on the maturity and technical viability of the design, as well as the company’s experience servicing satellites in orbit. Northrop Grumman’s SpaceLogistics subsidiary remains the only commercial firm to have successfully serviced satellites in geostationary orbit, having docked twice with client Intelsat satellites some 22,000 miles above Earth to extend spacecraft life.

Note that even though Northrop Grumman’s MEV spacecraft has twice docked with defunct Intelsat satellites to return them to service, the spacecraft did no refueling. Instead, it brought its own fuel and engine, and used that to control the satellite.

Other companies developing refueling services with ports they had hoped would become the standard include Astroscale and Orbit Fab. Both have launched demo missions, but neither has yet completed a refueling mission as well. Though this Space Force decision is not exclusive, and leaves open the possibility of further awards to these other commercial refueling port designs, it will likely force everyone to move towards the Northrop Grumman design.

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SpaceX completes two launches on Sunday

9:20 am

SpaceX yesterday successfully completed two Starlink satellite launches, its Falcon 9 rocket lifting off from opposite coasts.

First the company launched 23 Starlink satellites from Cape Canaveral in Florida, using a first stage flying its eighteenth time. That first stage landed successfully on a drone ship in the Atlantic.

Next less than five hours later the company launched another 22 Starlink satellites from Vandenberg in California, using a first first stage flying its ninth time. That first stage landed successfully on a drone ship in the Pacific.

The 2024 launch race:

9 SpaceX
6 China
2 Iran
1 India
1 ULA
1 Japan

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Northrop Grumman writes off $100 million on its fixed-price Lunar Gateway contract

10:00 am

Northrop Grumman announced on January 25, 2024 that it has written off another $42 million on its fixed-price contract with NASA to build the main habitable module for its Lunar Gateway space station, bringing the total losses so far to $100 million.

The company blamed the latest charge primarily on “cost growth stemming from evolving Lunar Gateway architecture and mission requirements combined with macroeconomic challenges.” The company offered the same explanation when it reported the charge in the second quarter.

Northrop received a $935 million fixed-price contract from NASA in July 2021 to build the module, which is based on the company’s Cygnus cargo spacecraft. HALO will provide initial living accommodations on the Gateway and includes several docking ports for visiting Orion spacecraft and lunar landers as well as additional modules provided by international partners. It will launch together with the Maxar-built Power and Propulsion Element (PPE) on a Falcon Heavy.

In a fixed price contract NASA is not suppose to issue change orders. What must be happening is that either the company or NASA are recognizing there are some issues with the initial and then revised designs, forcing Northrop Grumman to issue its own change orders, delaying development and adding costs.

That the company is having problems however is a bit baffling. First, space station module design is not new. There is a history going back decades on how to do this. Second, Northrop is basing this module design on its already launched Cygnus freighters. Though unmanned, these freighters still have to be habitable after docking with ISS. It should not be so difficult to upgrade them.

Regardless, the company has now become hostile to bidding on any future fixed price contracts, or if it does, it will bid much higher (a decision that caused it to lose in another recent bidding contest). Hopefully this decision on fixed price contracts, similar to Boeing’s own decision, will not cause NASA to abandon such contracts. Just because these big, old-space companies can’t work efficiently doesn’t mean others can’t. Fixed-price is how every business in the real world must function. For most NASA projects such a deal is realistic. If these old companies can’t function practically let new companies bid instead. This will be better for NASA and the entire American space industry.

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Lockheed Martin & Boeing get Space Force satellite development contracts

9:43 am

The Space Force has awarded Lockheed Martin and Boeing $66 million contracts each to design their own version of a new communications satellite for the military.

Over the next 15 months, the companies will create prototype satellites showing how they would meet the Space Force’s requirements for the MUOS satellites. DoD announced the contract awards Jan. 25.

The Space Force is expected to select one of the companies in 2025 to manufacture two flight-ready narrowband satellites to modernize the existing constellation of five MUOS satellites in geosynchronous orbit. Narrowband communications use relatively small amounts of data, but are critical for military operations.

A third unnamed company also bid but was not selected. The choice of Boeing for this competition is surprising, considering its numerous management and engineering problems across a wide range of products, from airplanes to space capsules. NASA itself has been so dissatisfied with Boeing’s work that in 2020 it decided at that time “to eliminate Boeing from future award consideration.” That decision appears to still stand. As far as I can remember Boeing not won any NASA contracts since.

Moreover, Lockheed Martin built the current MUOS satellites in orbit, while Boeing does not have a big reputation in recent years building satellites.

All told, it will therefore be extremely surprising if Boeing wins this competition. I suspect the Space Force issued this contract to help keep Boeing a viable company and to give it an opportunity to get its act together. Rewarding incompetence however is rarely successful.

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African lawfare to take control of space

12:57 pm

Modern academia: Marching with Lenin!
Modern African academia, proudly marching with Lenin!

It appears that a growing cadre of African lawyers are working within international organizations such as the UN and the International Astronautical Union (IAU) to use the Outer Space Treaty as a wedge to take control of space, wresting it from the hands of private commerical companies.

I make this assessment based upon a long article about this new lawfare published today in Wired, describing the training and political goals of a number of young African layers in the field of international space law.

[S]ome players in the global south are gearing up for the orbital future not just by scrambling to launch satellites, but by building up skills in outer space law—the evolving area of international jurisprudence that introduced the “province of all mankind” concept in the first place.

Though the Outer Space Treaty is still the cornerstone of space law, other international agreements have built up around it over the years—and more still are desperately needed to regulate today’s realities in space. “This is an area of rulemaking where they’re just setting up the rules for the future, so you need to have a perspective now,” explains Timiebi Aganaba, a British-Canadian-Nigerian professor at Arizona State University who has been instrumental in driving African interest in space law. “If the system gets built without you—if you come in later—people will start quoting laws to you.”

In 2011, Aganaba helped organize the first teams of African law students to enter something called the Manfred Lachs Space Law Moot Court Competition. The global tournament, named after an architect of the Outer Space Treaty, uses fictional court cases to train young lawyers how to think through the plausible conflicts that could soon arise beyond the atmosphere—and it is far and away the most important professional conduit into the field of space law. Students who make it to the final round of the competition argue their cases before actual judges from the International Court of Justice—the world’s highest forum for legal disputes between countries. And since 2011, teams from Africa have become a force in the competition. In 2018, South Africa’s University of Pretoria won the international championship.

If Aganaba’s name rings a bell to my readers, it is no surprise. » Read more

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Starliner launch in mid-April continues on target

10:35 am

In an update today from NASA, it appears the first manned flight of Boeing’s manned Starliner capsule remains on target for a mid-April launch on a ULA Atlas-5 rocket.

Engineers continue to analyze the data from the recent parachute drop test that appeared to prove out the redesign of the capsule’s parachutes. Also, the work to replace or mitigate the flammable tape in the capsule has been completed.

Boeing completed removal of P213 tape that may have posed a flammability risk in certain environmental conditions. Boeing removed more than 17 pounds, or roughly 4,300 feet, of the material from the Starliner crew module. For areas in which removal of the tape carried an increased risk to Starliner hardware, Boeing applied tested remediation techniques such as overwrapping the P213 tape with another non-flammable, chafe-resistant tape, and installing fire breaks on wire harnesses.

No explanation as yet has been released as to how it was even possible for Boeing to have used this tape, considering it has been common practice since the Apollo 1 fire in 1967 to avoid the use of flammable materials in spacecraft. Nor has any explanation been issued on how the weak link in the main parachute connection to the capsule was not discovered until only weeks before the manned flight, last summer.

Nonetheless, both issues appear solved. After years of delays and innumerable problems, Boeing might finally be ready to fly Starliner with passengers. It desperately needs this flight to be successful, especially considering the company’s other ongoing problems with its 737 airplane. It also will not receive the rest of its contract payments from NASA until this flight is a success, and the delays and problems have cost the company more than $1.5 billion. The contract was fixed price, so Boeing has had to pay for all the additional costs from its own pocket.

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Surprise! Activist objections force delay in land swap at Boca Chica

10:02 am

Due to objections by activist organizations opposed to SpaceX’s entire operation at Boca Chica, the Texas Parks and Wildlife Department has delayed the vote on the land swap with SpaceX where the company hands over 447 acres nearby and gets 47 acres of state parkland adjacent to the company’s Starship launch site.

Parks and wildlife commissioners were set to vote on the plan Thursday morning but the item was withdrawn from the agenda after they were hit with criticism from concerned residents, county officials and environmental groups including the Sierra Club Lone Star Chapter and SaveRGV. Many called on the state to table the proposal to allow more time for public disclosure and discussion.

Parks and Wildlife received 1,039 comments opposing the the proposal and 263 in support.

Both Save RGV and the Sierra Club have participated in lawsuits against SpaceX and the FAA, attempting to shut down all commercial space operations at Boca Chica. Officials from local Cameron County also had objections to the swap, apparently because it had plans to buy the land SpaceX was giving to the federal government as a wildlife refuge.

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Space Force issues contract to assess New Glenn rocket for military launches

9:49 am

The Space Force has awarded Blue Origin an $18 million contract to assess that company’s new New Glenn rocket in order to certify it eventually for military launches.

The Space Force awarded Blue Origin nearly $18 million for “National Security Space Launch Phase 3 Lane 2 early integration studies to assess launch vehicle trajectory and mission design, coupled launch loads, and integrated thermal environments to inform compatibility between launch vehicles and space vehicles for missions planned in fiscal years 2025 and 2026.”

The NSSL Phase 3 procurement is divided into two lanes: Lane 1 caters to lower-risk missions to lower orbits, while Lane 2 focuses on demanding missions to higher orbits, requiring certified launch vehicles and full mission assurance. The latter is where Blue Origin, with its New Glenn heavy-lift rocket, could aim to challenge incumbents SpaceX and United Launch Alliance.

Bids for NSSL Phase 3 were submitted in December. Launch services contracts are expected to be awarded later this year for missions to be flown starting in late 2025 through 2029 or beyond.

The Pentagon wants to certify a third launch company for these higher-mass, higher-orbit missions, and New Glenn is powerful enough to provide that service, once it begins operational. This study puts Blue Origin on a path to get that certification.

After years of delays at both ULA and Blue Origin that left almost the entire launch market in the hands of SpaceX, it now looks like SpaceX is finally going to get some competition.

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Europe signs up four rocket startups to provide it launch services

10:09 am

Capitalism in space: The European Space Agency (ESA) and the European Commission have jointly signed four rocket startups to contracts for eventually providing these government agencies a competitive commercial rocket industry capable of launching its payloads into space.

Each of the companies will receive a “frame” contract as part of the initiative, allowing them to compete for task orders for launching specific missions. Officials did not disclose the anticipated value of those contracts, or how many launch companies competed to participate in the program.

Four of the companies selected for the Flight Ticket Initiative are startups working on small launch vehicles: Isar Aerospace, Orbex, PLD Space and Rocket Factory Augsburg. None of them have yet conducted an orbital launch but expect to do so within the next two years.

Arianespace, ESA’s launch company that previously had a monopoly on launches, also received a frame contract, but it apparently must now compete for future contracts with these startups.

Europe had attempted to compete with SpaceX by once again using Arianespace and its big space contractors to build the Ariane-6 rocket. That project however is years behind schedule, and has resulted in an expendable rocket that is too expensive. Europe has thus been forced to buy launches from SpaceX.

This new arrangement essentialy means that Europe has adopted the recommendations I made in my 2017 policy paper, Capitalism in Space, available here [pdf]. Rather than design, build, and own its rockets, Europe will instead become a customer like anyone else, buying products developed and owned by private and competing European rocket companies.

Of the startup companies listed above, two (Isar and Rocket Factory) are German, one (Orbex) is British, and one is Spanish (PLD). Thus, this arrangement also spreads the wealth throughout Europe.

Unless outside events change things (such as war or economic collapse), this decision is likely to result in a renaissance in Europe’s launch industry comparable to what is happening now in the U.S. and India. If so, the future for the exploration and settlement of the solar system looks bright indeed.

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Florida legislature considering bills to expand territory of its commerical Florida spaceport

9:51 am

Four bills under consideration in Florida’s legislature are proposing to expand the territory controlled by Space Florida, the state agency that runs the state’s commerical spaceport.

HB 577 and SB 968 seek to expand Florida’s spaceport system territory to include Tyndall Air Force Base and Homestead Air Reserve Base. Space Florida says the land owners still have authority over what projects or improvements can be made.

CS/HM 143 and SB 370 seeks to add seaports as a qualified tax-exempt category of private activity bonds. Space Florida is urging Congress to take action, as receiving the tax exemption is not something the state alone can change.

The bills specifically refer to property that the state owns within these federal bases or recently given back to the state. Overall however these bases remain federal facilities. It thus appears the bills are mostly designed to pressure Congress to act to give Space Florida more control.

The supporters of the bills cite the need for this expansion due to the spectacular increase in commercial launches in Florida, which set a record last year and is expected to do the same each year for the foreseeable future. The irony is that when the space shuttle’s retirement was announced in 2004, Florida officials thought this would be an end to the state’s space operations. Instead, private enterprise since then has resulted in a growth far greater than anything NASA ever provided.

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First two stages of New Glenn assembled for the first time

9:35 am

After years of delays, Blue Origin announced yesterday that it has finally joined the first and second stages of its orbital New Glenn rocket, in preparation for its planned first launch later this year.

The stages remain horizontal inside Blue Origin’s assembly facility at Cape Canaveral, where engineers continue to check them out.

New Glenn’s launch was originally supposed to be in 2020. Problems with its first stage BE-4 engine put it (as well as ULA’s Vulcan rocket) four years behind schedule. The evidence now suggests that those problems were badly acerbated by the poor leadership of Bob Smith, Blue Origin’s CEO from 2017 to 2023, who apparently refused to spend money on test engines and the additional hardware necessary to test the engine to figure out what was wrong. Smith also appeared to slow all other work down in numerous ways as well as antagonize many at the company, causing a lot of high level engineers over time to flee.

Almost to the day Smith left last year Blue Origin has appeared to come to life. If so, this bodes well for both its future as well as that of the entire American rocket industry. New Glenn is a very powerful rocket, capable of lifting 50 tons to low Earth orbit, making it comparable to SpaceX’s Falcon Heavy. Its first stage is also designed to be reuseable, landing on a drone ship like the Falcon 9. If successful it will thus be a very capable competitor to SpaceX.

The company is aiming for an August launch. Keep your fingers crossed.

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Sierra Space confirms burst test of its fullscale inflatable module was successful

9:21 am

Sierra Space yesterday confirmed that the pressure test-to-failure of a fullscale inflatable space station module was successful in proving its safety and design.

The pressure shell for Sierra Space’s LIFE™ (Large Integrated Flexible Environment) habitat is made of expandable “softgoods,” or woven fabrics that perform like a rigid structure once inflated. During an Ultimate Burst Pressure (UBP) test, the teams inflate the test article until it fails, which helps determine how strong its softgoods materials would be under extreme stresses in the harsh environment of space. The full-scale unit in this test reached 77 psi before it burst, which well exceeds (+27%) NASA’s recommended level of 60.8 psi (maximum operating pressure of 15.2 psi multiplied by a safety factor of four).

A short video showing the moment the module bursts can be seen here.

The module is for the Orbital Reef commercial space station that Sierra Space is building in partnership with Blue Origin, which is supposed to be the lead company in the project. However, it is Sierra Space that appears to be building and testing hardware. What Blue Origin is doing remains unclear, as has been the case now for five-plus years.

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Astrobotic’s Peregrine burns up in Earth’s atmosphere

8:23 am

At about 3:50 pm (Eastern) yesterday, the lunar lander Peregrine, built by the private company Astrobotic, hit the Earth’s atmosphere above the South Pacific and burned up, according to an update from the company.

The mission is over, having failed to reach the Moon due to a ruptured propellant tank caused by a leak in an interior helium tank.

The company was successful in regaining control over the mission after the leak, activating all payloads and getting data back from them, including images and even a short movie. It was also able to communicate with it from lunar distances. It failed however in testing its landing capabilities, its primary mission.

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SpaceX successfully launches four astronauts to ISS on Axiom private mission

3:03 pm

They’re coming for you next: SpaceX today successfully launched three European astronauts (plus the company capsule commander) to ISS on an Axiom private mission, its Falcon 9 rocket lifting off from Cape Canaveral at 4:49 pm (Eastern).

The capsule, Freedom, is flying humans into space for its third time. The first stage successfully completed its fourth flight, landing back at Cape Canaveral.

The mission itself is private, but the customer is the European Space Agency, which has paid the company Axiom to bring its astronauts to ISS for a fourteen day mission. Axiom in turn hired SpaceX to provide the rocket and capsule. This flight is confirmation that Europe has accepted the concept of capitalism in space, whereby it no longer depends on governments to accomplish what it wants, but instead is a customer buying those products from the private sector.

The astronauts are expected to dock with ISS early tomorrow morning.

The 2024 launch race:

6 SpaceX
5 China
1 India
1 ULA
1 Japan

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SpaceX files for permits to build a shopping center and restaurant at Boca Chica

9:44 am

SpaceX has now filed for permits to build both a shopping center and restaurant at Boca Chica, with construction beginning in March and completed by the end of the year.

The location proposed is on the beach only a short distance to the west of SpaceX’s Starship/Superheavy facilities. It will be located looking north not at the Gulf of Mexico but at South Bay, one of the large inlets that surround the spit of land where those facilities are located. It is also located on roads that might not close during launches, which means it might be an excellent location to attract tourists during launches, about six miles from the launch site itself.

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SpaceX requests 43 acres of nearby Boca Chica State Park, offering to expand another park by 477 acres

1:52 pm

In order to “expand its operational footprint” at Boca Chica, SpaceX is asking to buy 43 acres of nearby Boca Chica State Park, and will offer as part of the purchase 477 acres adjacent to the Laguna Atascoca National Wildlife Refuge several miles to the north.

The link above includes maps showing the relative location of the properties. According to the meeting agenda for the Texas Parks and Wildlife department (TPWD), scheduled to take up this exchange next week, the commission already favors the deal.

“This acquisition will provide increased public recreational opportunities including hiking, camping, water recreation, and wildlife viewing, and allow for greater conservation of sensitive habitats for wintering and migratory birds,” the TPWD agenda stated. The agenda concludes by stating that the Commission finds that the proposed exchange is in the best interest of TPWD.

The public has been invited to comment on the deal at the meeting. Do not be surprised if we have a riot at that meeting of leftist activists protesting this deal.

Hat tip Robert Pratt of Pratt on Texas.

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Next manned mission to ISS to launch tomorrow

10:12 am

The next manned mission to ISS, a private mission by the company Axiom carrying three European astronauts and commanded by an Axiom astronaut, is presently scheduled to launch tomorrow, January 18, 2024, at 4:49 pm (Eastern).

This is a private mission by Axiom, launched on SpaceX’s Falcon 9 and flying the astronauts in its Freedom Dragon manned capsule. This will be Freedom’s third flight to ISS. The launch was originally scheduled for today, but SpaceX scrubbed the mission today in order to give it “additional time allows teams to complete pre-launch checkouts and data analysis on the vehicle.” It appears during normal prelaunch checkouts engineers found the joints between the upper stage and the capsule were not tightened the proper amount. The company decided to replace the joints, which caused this one day delay.

The crew will spend up to fourteen days at ISS.

I have embedded a live stream of the launch below.
» Read more

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Military awards satellite contracts worth $2.5 billion to three companies

9:25 am

The Pentagon’s Space Development Agency (SDA) today announced the award of contracts to Sierra Space, Lockheed Martin, and L3Harris for the construction of 54 reconnaissance satellites, with a total value of $2.5 billion.

The 54 satellites will form part of the SDA’s Proliferated Warfighter Space Architecture, a massive missile detection and tracking constellation in low Earth orbit that’s being built and launched in “tranches.” The trio of contracts announced today is for 18 satellites each in the Tranche 2 Tracking Layer: L3Harris’s award is worth $919 million; Lockheed Martin, $890 million; and Sierra Space, $740 million.

Last week SDA had awarded Rocket Lab its own 18-satellite contract for this constellation, worth $515 million.

The contract awards signal several major changes in the Pentagon’s space strategy. First, it is farming the work out to multiple companies, two of which (Rocket Lab and Sierra Space) are new. In the past the military relied on a very limited number of companies, all well established, with most contracts going to only one vender. New companies had great difficulties getting in the door.

Second, it is building a constellation of smallsats rather than single large satellites. Smallsats are cheaper to build and replace, and are much harder military targets to hit.

Third, though it appears the military is designing these satellites, it appears it is still shifting much of the work from it to the private sector. In other words, the Pentagon is becoming a customer instead of a builder. The result will be a healthy space industry capable of doing more for itself and the military.

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Indian satellite startup opens new satellite factory

9:04 am

Capitalism in space: The Indian satellite startup Pixxel has opened a new factory in Bengaluru in southern India, where it expects to ramp up satellite production in the coming years.

Bengaluru-based space data company Pixxel inaugurated its first spacecraft manufacturing facility in Bengaluru on Monday. The new facility holds significance as it targets to launch six satellites this year and 18 more by 2025, further advancing its mission of building a “health monitor” for the planet.
Spread across 30,000 square feet, the facility, at its full capacity, is equipped to handle more than 20 satellites simultaneously that can be turned around within a timeframe of six months, making possible a total of 40 large satellites per year.

The company says that its “…total customer base is divided into three divisions as of now – 40 per cent agriculture, 30 per cent resource companies, and 30 per cent government. Pixxel expects 85 per cent of the revenue to be generated from its commercial side and the rest from the government’s side by 2025.”

For India’s government and its space agency ISRO, Pixxel’s existence signals the sea-change in its policies, similar to what has been happening in the U.S. with NASA. In the past ISRO would have built the satellites. Now it is buying them from the private sector in India. That shift bodes well for India’s space industry, and will likely make it a major player in space in the coming years.

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SpaceX’s Starlink: More satellites in orbit but fewer close encounters

8:56 am

According to a recent filing with the FCC, SpaceX has found its Starlink constellation had to do fewer collision avoidance maneuvers in the past six months, despite having more satellites in orbit.

In that period, Starlink satellites had to perform 24,410 collision avoidance maneuvers, equivalent to six maneuvers per spacecraft. In the previous reporting period that accounted for the six months leading up to May 31, 2023, the constellation’s satellites had to move 25,299 times. The data suggests that even though the Starlink constellation has grown by about 1,000 spacecraft in the last six months, its satellites made fewer avoidance maneuvers in that period than in the prior half year.

At the moment it is not clear why the number dropped, especially as it had been doubling every six months previously as more satellites were launched. This might signal improved more precise orbital operations, or it could simply be a normal fluctuation. It will require additional reports to get a better sense.

These numbers however should rise as more larger satellites constellations (from Amazon and China) start launching as expected.

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Elon Musk’s employee update released January 12th

10:19 am

I have embedded below an employee update of the status of all of SpaceX’s projects, given by Elon Musk and released publicly on January 12, 2023. The video has been edited only to remove the many enthusiastic applauses by Musk’s audience of co-workers in order to shorten it.

Though Musk provided a lot of general information about the company’s long term goals with Starlink, Starship, Mars, the Moon, and other topics, these are the most important take-aways relating to its ongoing efforts now:

  • Falcon 9: The company is now upgrading its first stage so that it will be able to fly reused forty times, not twenty. Musk also noted that they have now reused the rocket’s fairings more than 300 times.
  • They are now aiming for about 150 launches in 2024. (It appears now that the biggest obstacle to this goal will be weather, as seen by the weather delays that have stalled Falcon 9 launches this very week.)
  • The Dragon fleet has now spent more days at and flights to ISS than the NASA’s entire shuttle fleet.
  • Starlink: It is a supplement to present phone and internet service, not a replacement, serving remote areas. Its biggest obstacle now however to providing that service is government approvals. The company is blocked by regulators in many places where the service is operational.

On Starship/Superheavy, he revealed these facts:

  • They are planning to double its payload capacity to 200 tons to orbit, twice the Saturn-5.
  • Starship would have made orbit on the second orbital test if it had had a payload. To simulate the weight of payload it had carried extraoxidizer, and when it vented these as it approached orbit it caused problems that activated the self-destruct system.
  • The third orbital test flight will thus almost certainly reach orbit, and will then test engine burns, some refueling technology, payload deployment, and de-orbit procedures.

Musk emphasized that they must be able to fly these tests frequently to get Starship/Superheavy functioning, not just for SpaceX but for NASA’s Artemis program. As he said, “Time is the one true currency.” With each launch they refine the system to make it more reliable and operational. Without those launches they can’t.

He did not mention why launches might not happen frequently, probably because the last thing he needs to do is antagonize the regulators who are slowing him down. I (and other journalists) however are not under that restriction. The biggest obstacle to SpaceX’s success is the red-tape being wound around it by the Biden administration and its love of strict regulation, possibly instigated by its political hostility to Elon Musk as a person.

This government action to stymie freedom must end, and the sooner the better.
» Read more

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Peregrine still operational but expected to burn up in Earth’s atmosphere

9:23 am

Peregrine flight path as of January 13, 2024
Click for original image.

According to an update yesterday from Astrobotic’s engineering team, the damaged lunar lander is likely to enter the atmosphere burn up when its orbit brings it back to Earth in about a week.

In an update the day before, the company released a graph of the spacecraft’s position in relation to the Earth and Moon, shown to the right. From that update:

Peregrine remains operational at about 238,000 miles from Earth, which means that we have reached lunar distance! As we posted in Update #10, the Moon is not where the spacecraft is now (see graphic). Our original trajectory had us arriving at the Moon on day 15 post launch. Our propellant estimates currently have us running out of fuel before this 15-day mark

The plan had apparently been to circle the Earth twice in this elongated orbit, with the second orbit (after some mid-course corrections) bringing Peregrine close enough to the Moon (after it had moved further in its orbit) to be captured by its sphere of influence. With the loss of fuel due to the leak, the spacecraft doesn’t have the fuel to do any of the required engine burns, including one that would avoid the Earth’s atmosphere upon return.

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Momentus delays next orbital tug mission due to lack of funds

3:24 pm

The orbital tug startup Momentus has now delayed its next orbital tug mission, scheduled to launch in March on a SpaceX Falcon 9 rocket, due to shortage of cash in the bank.

In a filing with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission Jan. 12, Momentus announced it did not plan to fly its next tug, Vigoride-7, on SpaceX’s Transporter-10 rideshare launch in March. The company said it called off the flight because of its “inability to support continuing operations for the expected launch date as a result of the Company’s limited liquidity and cash balance.”

The company said in November that it has signed up seven customers who planned to deploy satellites on Vigoride-7 and two other customers who would operate hosted payloads on the vehicle, but did not identify then. Momentus also intended to fly a rendezvous and proximity operations demonstration on the vehicle as part of its long-term plans for reusable tugs.

Momentus also announced the layoff of 20% of its full-time workforce, on top of the 30% layoffs which occurred in the third quarter in 2023. It appears from the SEC filing that these layoffs are a result of not winning the military contract to build its Tranche-2 constellation, won by Rocket Lab earlier this week.

The company is presently seeking new investment capital.

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Another look at the increasing regulatory burden impacting commerical space

1:10 pm

Link here. The author does a nice job summarizing the problems now becoming evident as the administration state strives to expand its power and control. Though he gives space to both sides, allowing the defenders of that administrative state to explain why strong regulations are good, he doesn’t bow to those defenders, as do too many modern journalists.

That he quotes me extensively (and has has told me personally that he is a regular reader of Behind the Black), might have something to do with this. He isn’t parroting my positions, however, in this essay, but giving his own perspective.

Definitely worth reading.

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