Tag: engineering

A galaxy sunnyside up

9:23 am

A galaxy sunnyside up
Click for original image.

Cool image time! The picture to the right, cropped, reduced, and sharpened to post here, is the Hubble picture of the week. It shows a strange galaxy that defies categorization. From the caption:

The galaxy in question is NGC 2775, which lies 67 million light-years away in the constellation Cancer (The Crab). NGC 2775 sports a smooth, featureless centre that is devoid of gas, resembling an elliptical galaxy. It also has a dusty ring with patchy star clusters, like a spiral galaxy. Which is it, then: spiral or elliptical — or neither?

Because we can only view NGC [2775 from one angle, it’s difficult to say for sure. Some researchers have classified NGC 2775 as a spiral galaxy because of its feathery ring of stars and dust, while others have classified it as a lenticular galaxy. Lenticular galaxies have features common to both spiral and elliptical galaxies. It’s not yet known exactly how lenticular galaxies come to be, and they might form in a variety of ways.

To me, the galaxy most resembles a fried egg, sunnyside up, though I very strongly doubt that was the process that formed it. The bright center however suggests that something there has in the past emitted a lot of energy and radiation, thus clearing out the gas and dust from that center.

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Failed launch by Iran

11:49 pm

Though information is at present scarce and contradictory, Iran in the past few days appears to have made one or two launch attempts, either of a missile system near Tehran or of its orbital Zoljanah rocket from its Semnan spaceport to the east.

According to this Newsweek report, the launch was of a “suspected missile system … near its capital, Tehran.”

According to this tweet from astronomer Jonathan McDowell, who monitors such activity, it was a “possible failed orbital launch attempt … of an IRGC Zoljanah launch vehicle from Semnan, Iran.”

There is also this tweet from Iran media, which calls it a “missile” and a “test” that failed.

I think these conflicting reports are describing the same launch. If its the latter, then the question is whether it was a Zoljanah rocket, and if so was it attempting its first orbital launch after two suborbital tests in ’21 and ’22?

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South Korean rocket startup Innospace wins launch and marketing contract with German broadcast company

9:31 am

The South Korean rocket startup Innospace announced last week that it has signed a $5.8 million launch with the German broadcast company Media Broadcast Satellites (MBS) to not only launch two MBS satellites in 2026 and 2028 using its Hanbit rocket, but to have MBS market the rocket in Germany.

Under the agreement, INNOSPACE will carry out two HANBIT launch missions to deploy MBS satellites into Low Earth orbit (LEO), with one launch in 2026 and the other planned by 2028. In both launch missions, MBS satellites will serve as the primary payloads, with priority in launch scheduling and orbit determination.

INNOSPACE also signed a separate contract on the same day, officially appointing MBS as its exclusive agent for launch service sales and marketing within Germany, marking the company’s entry into the European space launch market. Following the contract, MBS will exclusively distribute launch services based on the HANBIT series to satellite customers in Germany.

Innospace has not yet launched Hanbit. It had hoped to attempt the first launch in July, but in May it delayed it to the end of 2025 due to issues found in a first stage pump. The launch itself will take place at Brazil’s long abandoned Alcântara spaceport on that nation’s northeast coast.

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Avio wins U.S. launch contract for its Vega-C rocket

9:19 am

Capitalism in space: In what I think is a first, the Italian rocket company Avio has won a Vega-C launch contract without any participation from the European Space Agency’s (ESA) commercial division Arianespace.

The contract is also with an American company, SpaceLaunch, to put an “institutional Earth observation satellite” in orbit in 2027.

The significance of the deal is that Avio is now successfully marketing and selling its Vega-C rocket, without the middleman Arianespace taking a cut. As part of the shift of ESA and Europe to the capitalism model, whereby it no longer runs things but acts merely as a customer, it also freed Avio from the clutches of Arianespace. Previously, Avio built the rocket for that government agency, which then marketed and sold it to satellite companies. Avio had no control over profit or price. In fact, it didn’t really own its own rocket.

This absurd situation is now ending. There are still a handful of Vega-C launches that were contracted for under Arianespace, but after these Avio will be completely in charge. This deal, announced yesterday, is the beginning of that process.

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SpaceX launches 28 Starlink satellites

9:08 am

The beat goes on. SpaceX early this morning successfully placed another 28 Starlink satellites in orbit, its Falcon 9 rocket lifting off from Cape Canaveral in Florida.

The first stage completed its eleventh flight, landing on a drone ship in the Atlantic.

The leaders in the 2025 launch race:

121 SpaceX
54 China
13 Russia
12 Rocket Lab

SpaceX now leads the rest of the world in successful launches, 121 to 93.

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Blue Origin wins contract to bring NASA’s Viper rover to the Moon

9:12 am

NASA yesterday awarded Blue Origin a contract to use its Blue Moon lunar lander to transport the agency’s troubled Viper rover to the Moon’s south pole region.

The CLPS task order has a total potential value of $190 million. This is the second CLPS lunar delivery awarded to Blue Origin. Their first delivery – using their Blue Moon Mark 1 (MK1) robotic lander – is targeted for launch later this year to deliver NASA’s Stereo Cameras for Lunar-Plume Surface Studies and Laser Retroreflective Array payloads to the Moon’s South Pole region.

With this new award, Blue Origin will deliver VIPER to the lunar surface in late 2027, using a second Blue Moon MK1 lander, which is in production. NASA previously canceled the VIPER project and has since explored alternative approaches to achieve the agency’s goals of mapping potential off-planet resources, like water.

The contract does not guarantee this mission. NASA has several options along the way to shut things down, depending on the milestones Blue Origin achieves. The first of course is the success of that first lunar lander.

The announcement does not make clear how NASA is going to pay for the work needed to finish Viper. VIPER was originally budgeted at $250 million. When cancelled in 2024 its budget had ballooned to over $600 million, and that wasn’t enough to complete the rover for launch. Moreover, after getting eleven proposals from the private sector companies to finish and launch Viper, in May 2025 NASA canceled that solicitation.

It is very likely Blue Origin is picking up the tab, but if so the press release does not say so.

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FAA releases proposed revisions to environmental assessment at Boca Chica to accomodate full orbital testing and return of both Superheavy and Starship

12:33 pm

The planned return trajectories for both Superheavy and Starship
The planned return trajectories for both
Superheavy and Starship

The FAA today released [pdf] a new draft of the environmental assessment of SpaceX’s Superheavy/Starship operations at Boca Chica that will allow for full orbital flights as well as for both to return to that launchpad.

The two maps to the right show the two planned return paths for Superheavy (top) and Starship (bottom) as it comes back from orbit. In both cases the ships will return to Boca Chica to be caught by tower chopsticks. The reassessment analyzed the impacts of these trajectories, including its impact on aviation traffic, and concluded the proposal was acceptable. From its conclusion:

The 2022 PEA [Programmatic Environmental Assessment] and April 2025 Tiered EA [environmental assessment] examined the potential for significant environmental impacts from Starship-Super Heavy launch operations at the Boca Chica Launch Site and defined the regulatory setting for impacts associated with Starship-Super Heavy. The areas evaluated for environmental impacts in this Tiered EA include aviation emissions and air quality; noise and noise-compatible land use; hazardous materials; and socioeconomics. In each of these areas, the FAA has concluded that no significant impacts would occur as a result of the Proposed Action. [emphasis mine]

This approval is still only a draft. It must go through a public comment period, ending October 20, 2025. There will also be a virtual public meeting on October 7, 2025. Information about submitting comments or participating in that virtual meeting can be found here.

Such meetings are likely to see the leftist anti-Musk crowd come out in droves, screeching how we are all gonna die if these launches are allowed. The FAA will nod its head, and then ignore the Chicken Littles and approve this plan.

The plan itself tells us that SpaceX is definitely gearing up the first orbital flights of Starship next year, along with the first attempts to catch it with the tower chopsticks.

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Inexplicable very large patterns found in Saturn’s upper atmosphere

9:40 am

Beads and arms in Saturn's upper atmosphere
Click for original image.

Using the Webb Space Telescope’s infrared capabilities, scientists have detected several different and inexplicable large atmospheric structures linked somehow to the gas giant’s north pole aurora.

The two images to the right, cropped, reduced, and annotated to post here, show both types of newly discovered features.

The international team of researchers, comprising 23 scientists from institutions across the UK, US and France, made the discoveries during a continuous 10-hour observation period on 29 November 2024, as Saturn rotated beneath JWST’s view. The team focused on detecting infrared emissions by a positively charged molecular form of hydrogen, H3+, which plays a key role in reactions in Saturn’s atmosphere and so can provide valuable insights into the chemical and physical processes at work. JWST’s Near Infrared Spectrograph allowed the team to simultaneously observe H₃⁺ ions from the ionosphere, 1,100 kilometres above Saturn’s nominal surface, and methane molecules in the underlying stratosphere, at an altitude of 600 kilometres.

In the electrically-charged plasma of the ionosphere, the team observed a series of dark, bead-like features embedded in bright auroral halos. [top picture] These structures remained stable over hours but appeared to drift slowly over longer periods.

Around 500 kilometres lower, in Saturn’s stratosphere, the team discovered an asymmetric star-shaped feature [bottom picture]. This unusual structure extended out from Saturn’s north pole towards the equator. Only four of the star’s six arms were visible, with two mysteriously missing, creating a lopsided pattern.

A more accurate word for the “beads” I think would be “patches”, as they are not small but major dark regions that appear to rotate with the planet, as do the arms. Both also seem to be related to each other as their rotations match, though one sits about 300 miles lower in the atmosphere. As noted in the press release, “the processes that are driving the patterns may influence a column stretching right through Saturn’s atmosphere.”

All guesses. All we have at this point is a truly intriguing observation.

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Luxembourg cargo capsule startup Space Cargo raises $32 million in private investment capital

9:14 am

The Luxembourg cargo capsule startup Space Cargo has now raised $32 million in private investment capital in a new funding round focused on developing its BentoBox platform for in-space manufacturing and experimentation.

On 15 September, the company announced that it had closed a €27.5 million Series A funding round led by Expansion Ventures and supported by Eurazeo. The round included participation from the European Innovation Council, the European Investment Bank, and the Luxembourg Future Fund II, which is managed by Société Nationale de Crédit et d’Investissement and the European Investment Fund. It also included contributions from numerous private investors who participated through the crowd-equity platform Tudigo.

Unlike Varda’s returnable capsule, BentoBox is smaller and not designed to return to Earth. Instead it gets launched incorporated on orbital spacecraft built by others, such as Thales Alenia’s REV-1 tug and Atmos’s Phoenix returnable capsule.

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Astra is now targeting mid-’26 for first launch of its new Rocket-4 rocket

9:00 am

According to a presentation by Astra officials this week, the company now plans the first launch of its larger Rocket-4 rocket in the summer of 2026, followed by a second launch in the fall for the Pentagon.

The summer 2026 inaugural launch will be a test flight, Kemp said, followed by one in October or November for the Defense Department’s Space Test Program. Astra plans quarterly launches of Rocket 4 in 2027, with long-term goals for much higher launch rates. Astra has maintained plans to make Rocket 4 a transportable launch system using standard shipping containers, allowing it to operate from sites with little more than a concrete pad.

This company has had a checkered history. It built and launched its smaller Rocket-3 rocket several times back in 2021 and 2022, with mixed results. After those launch failures it then decided to retire that smaller rocket for Rocket-4, only to run out of cash in 2023-2024. In 2024 its founders put together the cash to buy up the company’s stock to go private, and since then it has made most of its money from that one military test contract as well as selling its electrical propulsion systems to satellite companies.

If it gets Rocket-4 off the ground and begins regularly launches it will be an amazing recovery.

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Japan closes down its Akatsuki Venus orbiter mission

8:50 am

japan’s space agency JAXA today announced that it has shut down down operations on its Akatsuki orbiter, in orbit around Venus since 2015.

Communication with “Akatsuki” was lost during operations near the end of April 2024, triggered by an incident in a control mode of lower-precision attitude maintenance for a prolonged period. Although recovery operations were conducted to restore communication, there has been no luck so far. Considering the fact that the spacecraft has aged, well exceeding its designed lifetime, and was already in the late-stage operation phase, it has been decided to terminate operations.

Akatsuki has a interesting history. Launched in 2010, it failed to enter Venus orbit as planned in two attempts in 2010 and 2011 because of a failure in its main engine. Engineers then improvised and — after orbiting the Sun for several years — were able to get it into Venus orbit in 2015 using only its attitude thrusters. Its primary mission ended in 2018, but it continued to study Venus’ atmosphere since.

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Russia’s Bion-2 capsule returns to Earth after a month in space

8:44 am

After a month in space carrying a cargo of biological samples, including 1,500 fruit flies and 75 mice, Russia’s Bion-2 capsule was successfully recovered today after landing in southern Russia.

Following the landing, some mice was [sic] to be dissected at the site, followed by further dissections on the 1st, 5th, 15th and 30th days after landing to study the effects of space conditions on live organisms.

While resembling the commercial private returnable capsules, such as Varda’s, that are being developed, the difference is significant. Russia has been flying these capsules for decades, which is actually an upgrade from the very first Vostok capsule which it flew Yuri Gagarin in 1961. However, the research has always been focused not on producing a product for sale on Earth but related to Russia’s manned program. Thus, the results has always been somewhat dead end. Expect the same here.

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Astronomers refine the spin and size of Hayabusa-2’s next target asteroid

10:15 am

Using a number of ground-based telescopes, astronomers have determined that asteroid 1998 KY26, which Japan’s Hayabusa-2 probe will visit in 2031, spins much faster and is much smaller than previously estimated.

The new observations, combined with previous radar data, have revealed that the asteroid, 1998 KY26, is just 11 meters wide. It is also spinning about twice as fast as previously thought: “One day on this asteroid lasts only five minutes!” he says. Previous data indicated that the asteroid was around 30 meters in diameter and completed a rotation in approximately 10 minutes. The smaller size and faster rotation will make the spacecraft’s touchdown maneuver more difficult to perform than anticipated.

The observations also found that 1998 KY26 is bright, suggesting it is a solid object, not a rubble pile. Its fast rotation adds weight to this conclusion.

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Perseverance data suggests multiple past wet periods occurred in Jezero Crater

9:24 am

Perseverance's travels inside Jezero Crater
Figure 1 of the paper, showing Perseverance’s travels inside Jezero Crater. PIXL is an instrument on the rover. The numbers indicate the Martian days since landing. The Three Forks Depot is where Perseverance placed its first cache of sample cores. Click for original.

Scientists analyzing data taken by the Mars rover Perseverance while it traversed the floor and delta inside Jezero Crater strongly suggests that the landscape there experienced multiple past wet periods.

In Jezero, the 24 mineral species reveal the volcanic nature of Mars’ surface and its interactions with water over time. The water chemically weathers the rocks and creates salts or clay minerals, and the specific minerals that form depend on environmental conditions. The identified minerals in Jezero reveal three types of fluid interactions, each with different implications for habitability.

The first suite of minerals — including greenalite, hisingerite and ferroaluminoceladonite — indicate localized high-temperature acidic fluids that were only found in rocks on the crater floor, which are interpreted as some of the oldest rocks included in this study. The water involved in this episode is considered the least habitable for life, since research on Earth has shown high temperatures and low pH can damage biological structures.

…The second suite of minerals reflects moderate, neutral fluids that support more favorable conditions for life and were present over a larger area. Minerals like minnesotaite and clinoptilolite formed at lower temperatures and neutral pH with minnesotaite detected in both the crater floor and the upper fan region, while clinoptilolite was restricted to the crater floor.

Finally, the third category represents low-temperature, alkaline fluids and is considered quite habitable from our modern Earth perspective. Sepiolite, a common alteration mineral on Earth, formed under moderate temperatures and alkaline conditions and was found widely distributed across all units the rover has explored. The presence of sepiolite in all of these units reveals a widespread episode of liquid water creating habitable conditions in Jezero crater and infilling sediments.

You can read the peer-reviewed paper here. The uncertainty of these results is important to note. The analysis did not actually look at real samples. It took data obtained by Perseverance and used computer models and AI to analyze it. The research also assumes the minerals formed based on our understanding of such geological processes on Earth. On Mars conditions are very alien, and could result from chemistry we as yet do not understand, or are unaware even exists.

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NASA and Northrop Grumman work out rendezvous plan to get Cygnus to ISS

11:08 pm

UPDATE: The plan worked and Cygnus is safely berthed at ISS.

According to a press release tonight, NASA and Northrop Grumman have figured out a new rendezvous plan to get Cygnus to ISS after its previous engine burns yesterday cut off prematurely and left it in the wrong orbit.

NASA and Northrop Grumman are targeting the safe arrival of the company’s Cygnus XL at approximately 7:18 a.m. EDT Thursday, Sept. 18, to the International Space Station. The Cygnus XL now will conduct a series of burns to bring the spacecraft to the space station for its robotic capture and installation.

NASA astronaut Jonny Kim is scheduled to capture Cygnus XL using the station’s Canadarm2 robotic arm with backup support from NASA astronaut Zena Cardman. After capture, the spacecraft will be installed on the Unity module’s Earth-facing port and will remain at the space station until March 2026.

The release also added this detail about why that engine burn ended too soon:

Data shared by the spacecraft confirmed that Cygnus XL operated as intended during two planned maneuvers when an early warning system initiated a shutdown command and ended the main engine burn because of a conservative safeguard in the software settings.

Apparently this cause has reassured them that the engine is in good shape for the final rendezvous burns.

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Monitoring the largest recent impact detected by InSight’s seismometer

11:51 am

Overview

Cool image time! On December 24, 2021 the seismometer of the Mars lander InSight detected a four magnitude earthquake, the largest detected up until then. Because its nature suggested that it had been caused by an impact, not an internal shifting, the science team for Mars Reconnaissance Orbiter (MRO) immediately started searching for new impact craters in the area of Mars where the data suggested the quake came from.

Two months later they found it, in the northern lowland plains just south of the prime landing zone chosen by SpaceX for its Starship spacecraft. The black cross on the overview map to the right indicates the position. The four red spots are the prime Starship landing sites. The white dots indicate other locations considered. The black dots were images taken for a proposed Dragon landing. This impact is thus only about 100 miles away from the nearest possible Starship landing spot.
» Read more

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Premature engine cutoff forces postponement of Cygnus berthing to ISS

11:16 pm

During the second of two engine burns today, designed to raise the orbit of Northrop Grumman’s Cygnus freighter to match ISS’s, the burn ended prematurely, placing the capsule in the wrong orbit.

Early Tuesday morning, Cygnus XL’s main engine stopped earlier than planned during two burns designed to raise the orbit of the spacecraft for rendezvous with the space station, where it will deliver 11,000 pounds of scientific investigations and cargo to the orbiting laboratory for NASA. All other Cygnus XL systems are performing normally.

The berthing, using one of the robot arms on ISS, had been planned for early tomorrow, Wednesday, but will not occur until both NASA and Northrop Grumman engineers have analyzed the issues and come up with “an alternate burn plan”.

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Strange unexplained polarization shifts in M87’s supermassive black hole

12:25 pm

The changing magnetic field of M87
Click for original image.

Using the Event Horizon Telescope (EHT), astronomers have detected unexpected and so far unexplained polarization shifts in the supermassive black hole that resides at the center of the galaxy M87, located 55 million light years away.

That black hole is estimated to have a mass six billion times that of our Sun, and was the first ever imaged by EHT. By using observations made in 2017, 2018, and 2021, as shown in the images to the right, found its magnetic field changing in unexpected ways.

Between 2017 and 2021, the polarization pattern flipped direction. In 2017, the magnetic fields appeared to spiral one way; by 2018, they settled; and in 2021, they reversed, spiraling the opposite direction. Some of these apparent changes in the polarization’s rotational direction may be influenced by a combination of internal magnetic structure and external effects, such as a Faraday screen. The cumulative effects of how this polarization changes over time suggests an evolving, turbulent environment where magnetic fields play a vital role in governing how matter falls into the black hole and how energy is launched outward.

The changes were more puzzling in that the size of the black hole’s event horizon, the ring surrounding it, did not change. According to the scientists, this suggests “magnetized plasma swirling near the event horizon is far from static; it’s dynamic and complex, pushing our theoretical models to the limit.”

That the magnetic field flipped polarity however should not be surprising to scientists. Consider the same polarity flips we see in our own Sun every eleven years. It should be expected that the magnetic field around a super massive black hole would be equally variable, if not more so.

The problem is that there remains no understanding about why such changes happen. We know the magnetic field exists. We know it flips polarity. With the Sun we know it does so regularly every eleven years. Why it does so however remains unknown, though there are theories. With M87 the data is far less certain.

Tracking the changes at M87 however should help us build our knowledge base so that someday we might finally grasp those fundamentals.

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Isar outlines what caused the failure on the first launch of its Spectrum rocket

11:13 am

Isar's first launch attempt fails
Spectrum falling seconds after launch

According to officials of the German rocket startup Isar Aerospace, its Spectrum rocket failed during its first launch in March 2025 because of a loss of attitude control, which then caused the rocket to self-destruct.

Alexandre Dalloneau, vice president of mission and launch operations at Isar, said that the company had not properly characterized bending modes of the vehicle at liftoff. “The controllability has to be tuned in order to counter such behavior,” he said. That environment was not fully modeled and incorporated into the vehicle’s control system. “We were outside the environment that we expected, so that the controllability does not succeed.”

That loss of attitude control caused the vehicle to go outside the safety zone at the launch site. That, in turn, triggered the flight termination system on the rocket. He said the company has revised its modeling of vehicle modes at liftoff to correct the problem.

The company is now working towards a second launch from Norway’s Andoya spaceport, which it hopes to attempt either late this year or early next year. Afterward it hopes to launch eight-plus times a year, based on the demand it is presently seeing for its rocket.

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Europe once again delays test flights of its Callisto 1st stage hopper

11:05 am

Callisto's basic design
Callisto’s basic design

First proposed in 2015 as Europe’s answer to SpaceX’s Falcon 9, the first test flights of the European Space Agency (ESA)’s Callisto grasshopper-type reusable test prototype, as shown on the right, has once again been delayed, now from 2026 to 2027.

On Friday, CNES published a call seeking a partner to provide mechanical operations and procedures support ahead of the Callisto flight-test campaign, including contributions to operations user manuals, drafting mechanical operation procedures, and conducting detailed studies of mechanical interfaces between the vehicle and the ground segment. In the preamble to the scope of work, the notice states that the campaign will be carried out from the Guiana Space Centre in French Guiana in 2027. It will include an integration phase followed by eight test flights and two demonstration flights, all to be completed over a period of eight months.

The project, in which Japan’s space agency JAXA is participating, had an initial budget of $100 million, and originally planned to do its first hops in 2020. Instead, ESA spent a dozen years making powerpoint presentations, while SpaceX flew hundreds of operational flights with its Falcon 9, for profit.

Worse, this program is not attached to any rocket. It is a dead end. ESA and JAXA might get some useful engineering data from it, but it will belong to no one, and it is unclear anyone will care. At this moment it appears several private companies in Europe will have flown their own new rockets before Callisto even gets off the ground, and the data from those real rocket launches will be much more useful to them down the road.

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Lucy scientists name the features on asteroid Donaldjohanson

10:16 am

The named features on Donaldjohanson
Click for original.

The science team for the asteroid probe Lucy have now released their names for the features they discovered on the main belt asteroid Donaldjohanson when the spacecraft flew past in April 2025.

The smaller lobe is called Afar Lobus, after the Ethiopian region where Lucy and other hominin fossils were found. The larger lobe is named Olduvai Lobus, after the Tanzanian river gorge that has also yielded many important hominin discoveries.

The asteroid’s neck, Windover Collum, which joins those two lobes, is named after the Windover Archeological Site near Cape Canaveral Space Force Station in Florida — where NASA’s Lucy mission launched in 2021. Human remains and artifacts recovered from that site revolutionized our understanding of the people who lived in Florida around 7,300 years ago.

Two smooth areas on the asteroid’s neck are named Hadar Regio, marking the specific site of Johanson’s discovery of the Lucy fossil, and Minatogawa Regio, after the location where the oldest known hominins in Japan were found. Select boulders and craters on Donaldjohanson are named after notable fossils ranging from pre-Homo sapiens hominins to ancient modern humans.

These names were “approved” by the International Astronautical Union (IAU), which claims the authority over the naming of every rock, boulder, pebble in space. The truth is, however, that future spacefarers are going to accept these names no matter what the IAU had said, simply because these scientists did the first exploration of this asteroid. They get to choose, not the IAU.

The spacecraft is now on its long coast out of the main belt and on to the orbit of Jupiter, where it will make fly-bys of ten different asteroids.

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Scientists at JPL now predict a major long term uptick in sunspot activity

9:59 am

The solar science community's failed predictions
The many failed recent predictions of the
solar science community

The uncertainty of science: According to a NASA press release today, scientists at JPL now predict that the Sun will see a major increase in sunspot activity in the coming decades, ending the relatively quiet period seen in the two past solar maximums.

In their paper, the scientists say they come to this conclusion due to changes seen in solar wind activity since 2008. From their abstract:

Over the course of two decades until 2008, the solar wind became significantly weaker with a constant declining trend in many important solar wind parameters, and solar cycle 24 being the weakest on record since the start of the space age. Here we show that since 2008, the Sun has reversed this long-term weakening trend with a steady increase in various solar wind proton parameters observed at 1 au. Furthermore, comparison of values from a fitted trend to data between 2008 and 2025 show the following increases in solar wind proton parameters: speed (~6%), density (~26%), temperature (~29%), thermal pressure (~45%), mass flux (~27%), momentum flux or dynamic pressure (~34%), energy flux (~40%), interplanetary magnetic field magnitude (~31%), and the radial component of the magnetic field (~33%).

This has important implications on long-term solar trends, implying that the exceptional weakness of solar cycle 24 was most likely a recent outlier and that the Sun is not entering a modern era Maunder/Dalton-like minimum phase in its solar variation, but is instead recovering from a ~20 yr decline.

This analysis and conclusion is most intriguing, but we must also remember that every prediction by the solar science community in the past two decades has turned out to be wrong, as illustrated by the graph above. This prediction is just like all those others, in that it is based not on any fundamental understanding of why these changes in the solar wind are occurring, but simply extrapolating this past behavior into the future, a very unreliable method of prediction.

These scientists might be correct, but I would not bet any money on it.

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China launches “test satellite for satellite internet technology”

9:25 am

China today successfully launched a satellite for testing “satellite internet technology”, its Long March 2C rocket lifting off from its Jiuquan spaceport in northwest China.

Its state-run press provided no other information about the satellite. Nor did it provide any information about where the rocket’s lower stages — which use toxic hypergolic fuels — crashed inside China.

The leaders in the 2025 launch race:

118 SpaceX
54 China
13 Russia
12 Rocket Lab

SpaceX still leads the rest of the world in successful launches, 118 to 93.

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The causes behind the launch failure of Firefly’s Alpha rocket in April

9:20 am

In late August the FAA and Firefly completed the investigation into the launch failure of Firefly’s Alpha rocket in April, clearing the way for the company to resume launches.

At the time however this approval was reported here merely as a quick link on X. The company however also published its conclusions at that time which explained the cause of the failure. For completeness I post that now, describing what happened just after the first stage separated from the second stage.

Alpha’s first stage then experienced a rupture milliseconds after stage separation. The pressure wave hit Alpha’s second stage, leading to the loss of the engine’s nozzle extension and substantially reducing stage two thrust. The second stage was able to recover attitude control and continued to ascend to an altitude of 320 km until running out of propellant. The vehicle was three seconds short of achieving orbital velocity and five seconds short of the target payload deployment orbit.

The ground-based video, onboard telemetry, post-flight empirical testing and Computational Fluid Dynamics analysis corroborated excessive heat from Plume Induced Flow Separation as the most probable root cause of the mishap. Alpha Flight 6 flew a higher angle of attack than prior missions. Plume-induced flow separation intensified heat on the leeward side reducing structural margins, causing the booster to rupture from stage separation induced loads.

Fortunately, the corrective actions are straight forward: increase thermal protection system thickness on Stage 1 and reduce angle of attack during key phases of the flight. Corrective actions have already been implemented.

The company expects to resume flights in the very near future, probably before the end of 2025.

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Spanish rocket startup PLD completes test of prototype first stage

9:07 am

The Spanish rocket startup PLD has successfully conducted a short “burst test” of a full scale prototype of the first stage of its proposed Miura-5 rocket as it prepares for a first launch.

The test subjected the stage to pressures beyond its intended operating limits to determine the point of structural failure. According to the PLD Space update, the test validated the structural performance of the tank under cryogenic temperatures and extreme pressure conditions. The company will now proceed with a fully integrated qualification model of the stage that includes all the elements required for flight.

The company had hoped to launch the rocket for the first time from its French Guiana launchpad before the end of this year, but that schedule has slipped to 2026. At the same time, it clearly is making real progress, having also tested the engines of the rocket’s second stage in August.

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The central star-forming cauldron of M82, the most well known star-forming galaxy

12:40 pm

The central star-forming region of M82
Click for original. For original of inset go here.

Cool image time! The picture to the right, cropped, reduced, and annotated to post here, was released today by the Hubble Science team. It shows the central star-forming core of the galaxy M82, only about 12 million light years away and long known as a “peculiar” galaxy by earlier research from the 20th century. For this reason I used the 1963 optical image taken by the 200-inch Hale Telescope at Palomar in California as the inset, showing the entire galaxy. At the time the data only suggested some major energetic events were occurring in the galaxy’s core, as indicated by what looked like filaments shooting out from that core at right angles to the plane of the galaxy.

Data since then, from Hubble and Webb and other space telescopes, have revealed that this galaxy, which some have nicknamed the “Cigar Galaxy”, is forming stars at a prolific rate.

Forming stars 10 times faster than the Milky Way, the Cigar Galaxy is what astronomers call a starburst galaxy. The intense starburst period that grips this galaxy has given rise to super star clusters in the galaxy’s heart. Each of these super star clusters contains hundreds of thousands of stars and is more luminous than a typical star cluster.

The red indicates the dust that permeates the galaxy. The blue comes from the radiation emitted from the clusters near the center, illuminating and ionizing that dust.

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Bubbling lava frozen in a Martian crater

11:24 am

Bubbling lava frozen in a Martian crater
Click for original image.

Cool image time! The picture to the right, cropped, reduced, and sharpened to post here, was taken on June 23, 2025 by the high resolution camera on Mars Reconnaissance Orbiter (MRO). This one-mile-wide unnamed crater was a featured image last week by the science team. As noted in the caption, written by Chris Okubo of the U.S. Geological Survey:

This area was covered by a large flood of lava, which we see as the generally flat areas surrounding the crater. As the lava flowed across, some of it flowed into this crater through a low spot along the crater rim.

Once in the crater, the lava heated ground water or ground ice in the floor, causing the water to boil and turn into steam. This steam then exploded through the overlying lava and created small, ring-shaped formations. These are called ”rootless cones,” and they record the presence of ground water or ground ice in the crater floor at the time of the lava eruptions.

In other words, when this crater was flooded with hot lava, it was filled with ice or water. That fact is significant because of the crater’s location, as shown in the overview map below.
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Progress docks safely with Zvezda module at ISS

9:24 am

ISS as of today
ISS as of today. Click for original.

In what is increasingly a worrisome procedure, Russia’s just launched Progress freighter successfully docked with the aft port of the Zvezda module at ISS this past weekend, bringing with it more than 5,000 pounds of supplies and research equipment.

The image to the right, annotated additionally by me, shows the present configuration of spacecraft at ISS. The concerns center on the stress fractures that have been found in the Zvezda hull, fractures that have caused the air leak on ISS and are believed attributable to the many dockings to the module since its launch in the late ’90s, as well as the module’s age. It was first built in the late ’80s, making it almost four decades old.

For recent dockings, NASA now closes the hatch between the Russian and American halves of the stations, just in case Zvezda experiences a catastrophic failure. The Russians seem less concerned, but nonetheless they also take extra care during dockings. It is my understanding their astronauts prepare their Soyuz capsule as a lifeboat and immediately escape during these operations.

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Starlink down for about an hour last night

8:53 am

According to several major news sources, Starlink was down for about an hour last night globally, impacting several tens of thousands in the U.S. alone.

More than 37,000 US users were reporting issues with the internet service Monday at 12:30 a.m. ET, according to the website Downdetector.com. By 1:30 a.m., that number had fallen into the hundreds. The internet service owned by Musk’s SpaceX stopped working on “the entire frontline in Ukraine” around 7:30 a.m. Kyiv time (12.30 a.m. ET), said Maj. Robert “Magyar” Brovdi, the commander of Ukraine’s unmanned systems force, on Telegram. As of 8:00 a.m., service was gradually being restored, he said.

I link to CNN, but numerous other outlets thought this story significant enough to give it front page coverage. That this is considered news, however, illustrates perfectly how well Starlink functions normally. A brief outage lasting less than an hour makes the cover of every news outlet in the world, because normally Starlink works without problems for its more than six million subscribers.

SpaceX has not as yet provided any information about the cause of the outage. I suspect we are seeing the result of a hacker attack, possibly by Russia, but that is pure speculation. Even if not, it is in SpaceX’s interest to outline in detail what happened. This has been its policy in the past, but in the previous outage in July the company was not forthcoming. That lack of transparency has not served the company well.

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