Tag: policy

More missions to Apophis when it flies past Earth in 2029?

11:45 am

Apophis' path past the Earth in 2029
A cartoon (not to scale) showing Apophis’s
path in 2029

There were two stories today that heralded the addition of one real and two potential new spacecraft to rendezvous with the potentially dangerous asteroid Apophis when it flies past the Earth on April 13, 2029.

First, the European Space Agency (ESA) awarded a 1.5 million euro contract to the Spanish company Emxys to build a small cubesat that will fly on ESA’s Ramses mission to Apophis. This is the second cubesat now to fly attached to Ramses, with the first designed to use radar to study Apophis’ interior.

The second CubeSat, led by Emxys, will be deployed from the main spacecraft just a few kilometres from Apophis. It will study the asteroid’s shape and geological properties and will carry out an autonomous approach manoeuvre before attempting to land on the surface. If the landing is successful, it will also measure the asteroid’s seismic activity.

Second, American planetary scientists have been lobbying NASA to repurpose the two small Janus spacecraft for a mission to Apophis. These probes were originally built to go to an asteroid as a secondary payload when the Pysche asteroid mission was launched, but when Pysche was delayed they could no longer go that that asteroid on the new launch date. Since then both Janus spacecraft have been in storage, with no place to go.

The scientists say they could easily be repurposed to go to Apophis, but NASA will have to commit to spending the cost for launch, approximately $100 million. NASA officials were not hostile to this idea, but they were also non-committal. I suspect no decision can be made until the new administrator, Jared Isaacman, is confirmed by the Senate and takes office.

Time however is a factor. The longer it takes to make a decision the fewer options there will be to get it to Apophis on time.

At the moment there is only one spacecraft in space and on its way to Apophis, and that is the repurposed Osiris-Rex mission, now called Osiris-Apex. Japan might also send a craft past Apophis as part of its mission to another asteroid.

Learning as much as we can about Apophis is critical, as there is a chance it will impact the Earth sometime in the next two hundred years.

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Space station startup Voyager Technologies about to go public

10:52 am

Starlab design in 2025
The Starlab design in 2025. Click
for original image.

The space station startup Voyager Technologies (formerly Voyager Space) has filed its paperwork for its expected initial public offering (IPO) of stock as it competes for a major contract from NASA to build its Starlab space station.

Voyager filed a preliminary prospectus for its planned initial public offering (IPO) with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission May 16. The company previously confidentially filed plans for its IPO with the SEC. The draft prospectus does not yet disclose how many shares the company plans to sell or the amount the company expects to raise in the IPO. It does, though, offer financial details about Voyager.

The company reported $144.2 million in revenue in 2024 and a net loss of $65.6 million, versus $136.1 million in revenue and a net loss of $25.2 million in 2023. The company also reported revenue of $34.5 million in the first quarter of 2025, and a net loss of $27.9 million.

This story actually made me less confident about this company’s plans, with this quote the most revealing:

The company received a funded Space Act Agreement from NASA to support initial design work on the station, currently worth $217.5 million with $70.3 million yet to be paid. … The NASA award covers only initial work on Starlab, and the company will have to compete for a second phase of NASA’s Commercial Low Earth Orbit Development program that will offer additional funding for station development. Voyager revealed in the prospectus that it projects Starlab to cost $2.8 billion to $3.3 billion to develop.

So far it appears Voyager has built nothing. Instead it has used NASA’s preliminary money to do and redo its on-paper design of Starlab (compare the more recent design concept in the image on the right with this older image from 2022), which as a concept is intended to be launched whole on a single Starship launch. No metal has been cut. The company appears to be following the old big space company approach of investing nothing of its own in development.

This does not mean its station will be a failure, but I expect it will not launch as scheduled in 2029 if it wins that major NASA contract. The company will have to build it all in less than three years, something that I doubt it will be able to do.

My present rankings for the four proposed commercial stations:

  • Haven-1, being built by Vast, with no NASA funds. The company is moving fast, with Haven-1 to launch and be occupied in 2026 for an estimated 30 days total. It hopes this actual hardware and manned mission will put it in the lead to win NASA’s phase 2 contract, from which it will build its much larger mult-module Haven-2 station..
  • Axiom, being built by Axiom, has launched three tourist flights to ISS, with a fourth scheduled for early June, carrying passengers from India, Hungary, and Poland. Though there have been rumors it has cash flow issues, development of its first module has been proceeding more or less as planned.
  • Orbital Reef, being built by a consortium led by Blue Origin and Sierra Space. Overall, Blue Origin has built almost nothing, while Sierra Space has successfully tested its inflatable modules, including a full scale version, and appears ready to start building its module for launch.
  • Starlab, being built by a consortium led by Voyager Space, Airbus, and Northrop Grumman, with an extensive partnership agreement with the European Space Agency. It recently had its station design approved by NASA, but it has built nothing, and appears unwilling to cut any metal until it wins NASA’s full contract.
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Air Force issues draft approval of second SpaceX launchpad at Vandenberg

9:44 am

Air Force last week issued a draft environmental impact statement approving SpaceX’s plans to rebuild the old Space Launch Complex 6 (SLC-6, pronounced “slick-six”) at Vandenberg that was first built for the space shuttle (but never used) and later adapted for ULA’s Delta family of rockets, now retired.

The plan involves rebuilding SLC-6 to accommodate both Falcon 9 and Falcon Heavy launches, including the addition of two landing pads. With its already operational launchpad at Vandenberg, SLC-4E, the company hopes to increase its annual launch rate from 50 (approved by the FAA earlier this month) to as much as 100.

The estimated launch cadence between SpaceX’s existing West Coast pad at … SLC-4E and SLC-6 would be a 70-11 split for Falcon 9 rockets in 2026 with one Falcon Heavy at SLC-6 for a total of 82 launches. That would increase to a 70-25 Falcon 9 split in 2027 and 2028 with an estimated five Falcon Heavy launches in each of those years.

The draft assessment is now open to public comment through July 7, 2025, with a final version expected to be approved in the fall. It appears the Air Force wants it approved, as it needs this capacity for its own launch requirements. It also appears it no longer cares what the California Coastal Commission thinks about such things, as it has no authority and its members appear motivated not by environmental concerns but a simple hatred of Elon Musk.

An annual launch rate of 100 however exceeds what the FAA approved in May, doubling it. In order to move forward either the FAA will have to issue a new reassessment of its own, or some legislative or executive action will be needed to reduce this red tape. Since Vandenberg is a military base, the military in the end makes all the final decisions. The FAA simply rubber-stamps those decisions.

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China launches communications satellite

9:17 am

China today successfully placed a communications satellite into orbit, its Long March 7A rocket lifting off from this coastal Wenchang spaceport.

SpaceX was supposed to have launched a set of Starlink satellites last night as well, but scrubbed the launch about two and a half minutes before launch. It plans to try again tonight.

The leaders in the 2025 launch race:

59 SpaceX
29 China
6 Rocket Lab
5 Russia

SpaceX still leads the rest of the world in successful launches, 59 to 47.

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In telling us why they are fleeing Trump America, three Yale professors prove they are unqualified for their jobs

12:11 pm

What many now label the
The “Poison Ivy League” may have finally
gotten better!

Good riddance! In a New York Times op-ed on May 14, 2025, three former Yale professors attempted to explain why they have quit their jobs at Yale and moved to teach in Canada at the University of Toronto.

Unbeknownst to them, their idiotic and ignorant reasons for leaving demonstrated that they are actually completely unqualified to be college professors, and that Yale (and the United States) will be better off without them.

Professor Stanley is leaving the United States as an act of protest against the Trump administration’s attacks on civil liberties. “I want Americans to realize that this is a democratic emergency,” he said.

Professor Shore, who has spent two decades writing about the history of authoritarianism in Central and Eastern Europe, is leaving because of what she sees as the sharp regression of American democracy. “We’re like people on the Titanic saying our ship can’t sink,” she said. “And what you know as a historian is that there is no such thing as a ship that can’t sink.”

Professor Snyder’s reasons are more complicated. Primarily, he’s leaving to support his wife, Professor Shore, and their children, and to teach at a large public university in Toronto, a place he says can host conversations about freedom. At the same time, he shares the concerns expressed by his colleagues and worries that those kinds of conversations will become ever harder to have in the United States.

As noted in this analysis of their actions, all three say they are doing this because they have studied fascism and thus “equate ‘Make America Great Again’ with Adolf Hitler’s ‘Ein Volk, ein Reich, ein Führer.'”

The analogy is so weak and incoherent as to be laughable. As the essayist in this second link notes, it cheapens the meaning of fascism and in fact suggests these three “professors” don’t have the slightest idea what the word means, despite their claim they have studied it.

More important however are the three quirks of personality illustrated by their position and actions that signify why their are unqualified to be professors to begin with.
» Read more

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Chinese pseudo-company completes another launch from sea platform

8:42 am

The Chinese pseudo-company Galactic Energy today successfully placed four communications satellites into orbit, its solid-fueled Ceres-1 rocket lifting off from a sea platform off the eastern coast of China.

To prove how pseudo this company is, China’s state run press did not even mention its existence in the report at the link. The solid fuel of the rocket tells us that it was derived from missile technology, and there isn’t a chance in hell that a private independent company in China could do so without the strict supervision and control from that country’s government.

Nonetheless, this was its 19th successful launch, and its fifth from a sea platform. The rocket has only failed once since since its first launch in 2020.

The leaders in the 2025 launch race:

59 SpaceX
28 China
6 Rocket Lab
5 Russia

SpaceX still leads the rest of the world in successful launches, 59 to 46.

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Third stage of India’s PSLV rocket fails during launch

9:36 pm

India’s PSLV rocket today (May 18 in India) experienced a launch failure in attempting to place an Earth observation satellite into orbit, with the failure occurring during the engine firing of the rocket’s third stage.

The link is cued to just before the tracking screen began showing the third stage drop from its planned trajectory. The suddenness of the loss of data as well as the drop in the trajectory suggests the engine exploded during firing, but that is pure speculation. Regardless, the launch, only the second India has attempted in 2025, was a failure.

Moreover, the first launch this year was a failure also, though the GSLV rocket in that launch performed as expected and deployed the satellite in its planned transfer orbit. At that point however the Indian-built satellite’s thrusters failed to operate, stranding the satellite in the wrong orbit , which soon decayed. UPDATE: According to a more recent report, it has remained in orbit but provides little service.

Thus 2025, which ISRO had predicted to be India’s most active year ever, is so far not turning out so well. ISRO hopes to begin launching its first unmanned test flights of its Gaganyaan capsule later this year, using its Heavy Lift Vehicle Mark 3 rocket (HLV-M3), an upgraded version of its GSLV rocket. One wonders if these issues will impact that schedule.

These failures by the space agency could however help the Modi government shift the balance of power away from ISRO and to its emerging private rocket sector. If the agency can’t get it done, maybe the private sector should be given the chance to do it. For example, the government has been pushing to have the ownership and management of the PSLV rocket transferred from ISRO to a private rocket company since in 2016. In the nine year since, there however has been little sign of this shift happening.

Part of the problem has been that none of India’s private rocket startups are really ready to take over these operations. The transfer is further made less likely by the strong resistance to change within ISRO’s bureaucracy. These failures provide political ammunition to push back against that resistance.

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Two launches last night, by China and Rocket Lab

10:23 am

The high pace of rocket launches this year continued last night, but in a rare exception this time it had nothing to do with SpaceX.

First, the Chinese pseudo-company Landspace successfully placed six radar satellites into orbit, its upgraded version of its Zhuque-2 rocket lifting off from the Jiuquan spaceport in China’s northwest.

No word on where the rocket’s lower stages crashed inside China. Unlike its larger Zhuque-3 rocket, which has not yet flown but is being designed as a copy of a Falcon 9 with its first stage able to return to Earth vertically, the Zhuque-2 has no such ability.

Next, Rocket Lab successfully placed a commercial radar satellite into orbit, its Electron rocket lifting off from one of the company’s two launchpads in New Zealand. This launch was the third by Rocket Lab for the satellite company iQPS, and is the second in an eight-satellite launch contract with the company.

The leaders in the 2025 launch race:

59 SpaceX
27 China
6 Rocket Lab
5 Russia

SpaceX still leads the rest of the world in successful launches, 59 to 45.

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FAA issues revised launch window and flight restrictions for future Starship test flights

11:00 am

Flight path for Starship's ninth test flight

Due to the breakup of Starship over the Atlantic during its last two test flights, the FAA today issued [pdf] revised launch window and flight plan restrictions for future flights, in an attempt to placate somewhat the concerns of the United Kingdom.

The map to the right, taken from the FAA assessment, shows in red the area where air traffic is impacted by the next Starship/Superheavy launch, now tentatively planned for next week. Note how the path threads a line avoiding almost all land masses, thus limiting the worst impact to just the Bahamas, the Turks & Caicos Islands. Though the launch will effect 175 flights and require one airport on these islands to close during the launch window, to minimize the impact the FAA has required that the launch window be scheduled outside peak travel periods.

At the same time, the FAA after discussions with the governments on these islands has approved this flight plan, noting that “no significant impacts would occur” due to the ninth flight.

The agency has not yet actually issued the launch license, but it will almost certainly do so in time for SpaceX’s planned launch date. Since the advent of the Trump administration the FAA has no longer been slow walking these approvals in order to retype the results of SpaceX’s investigation. Instead, as soon as SpaceX states it has satisfactorily completed its investigation, the FAA has accepted that declaration and issued a launch license. Expect the same this time as well.

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Kazakhstan denies rumors that Russia plans to abandon Baikonur

10:01 am

In response to reports in its local press that Russia was going to pull out of the Baikonur spaceport in the next three years, two decades before its lease expires in 2050, the Kazakhstan government yesterday issued a denial.

Local media in Kazakhstan have reported that Russia could exit the lease between 2026 and 2028 as it pulls back from international space cooperation, including a planned withdrawal from the International Space Station (ISS) as early as 2028.

“The question of early termination of the lease, or transfer of the city of Baikonur to the full control of the Kazakh side, is not being considered at this time,” Kazakhstan’s Aerospace Committee told AFP.

There rumors however could have real merit. Once ISS is retired, the Russians will have little reason to use Baikonur. It is almost certain it will not have launched its own replacement station by then, and Baikonur’s high latitude location will make its use with any other station difficult if not impossible. Moreover, the effort to switch to its Angara rocket favors launches from the Vostochny and Plesetsk spaceports, both of which have launchpads built for that rocket.

Finally, Russia has not had the cash to upgrade the launchpads at Baikonur, so much so that it has often been late paying Kazakhstan its annual $115 million rental fee, delays which at one point caused Kazakhstan to seize the launchpad Russia was upgrading for its proposed new Soyuz-5 rocket.

In fact, Russia might not be able to afford Baikonur at all, based on its present finances and the cost of its stupid war in the Ukraine.

We shall not get clarity on this story for at least a year or so, but stay tuned. Nothing is certain.

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Gilmour scrubs launch attempt today

9:51 am

The Australian rocket startup Gilmour Space has scrubbed its first attempt to launch its Eris rocket from its own Bowen spaceport on the eastern coast of Australia.

Our team identified an issue in the ground support system during overnight checks. We’re now in an extended hold to work through it. Our next target is the Friday morning launch window.

The company has a two week launch window extending through the end of the month. If it can’t launch in that window then it will try again in the second half of June, assuming the bureaucracy of the Australian Space Agency issues a revised licence. It took that government three years to issue this license, so assuming it will work quickly to issue a revision is a dangerous thing.

The company is not providing a live stream of the launch, though it has said it will release a full video after the fact.

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Norway signs the Artemis Accords

9:37 am

Norway today became the 55th nation to sign the Artemis Accords, the second nation to do so since Donald Trump assumed the presidency.

The full list of nations now part of this American space alliance: Angola, Argentina, Armenia, Australia, Austria, Bahrain, Bangladesh, Belgium, Brazil, Bulgaria, Canada, Chile, Colombia, Cyprus, Czech Republic, Denmark, Dominican Republic, Ecuador, Estonia, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Iceland, India, Israel, Italy, Japan, Liechtenstein, Lithuania, Luxembourg, Mexico, the Netherlands, New Zealand, Nigeria, Norway, Panama, Peru, Poland, Romania, Rwanda, Saudi Arabia, Singapore, Slovakia, Slovenia, South Korea, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, Thailand, the United Kingdom, the United Arab Emirates, the Ukraine, the United States and Uruguay.

Unlike previous announcements, the only official public announcement (so far) was from the State Department. NASA has not yet issued its own statement. Also, and maybe far more important, unlike the previous announcement in April when Bangladesh signed, the text of the announcement made no mention of the Outer Space Treaty, as had been routinely stated during the Biden administration.

When Trump in his first term had created the Artemis Accords, the goal had been to create an American alliance of nations that supported private property and capitalism, which could also become strong enough to either get around the Outer Space Treaty’s restrictions on these concepts, or work to revise that treaty entirely to allow nations to establish such laws on other worlds. During Biden’s term that goal was abandoned. NASA announcements of new signatories would always state bluntly the exact opposite, that the accords were designed to support the Outer Space Treaty, using this language:

The Artemis Accords are grounded in the Outer Space Treaty and other agreements including the Registration Convention, the Rescue and Return Agreement, as well as best practices and norms of responsible behavior that NASA and its partners have supported, including the public release of scientific data.

Today’s State Department announcement makes no mention of the Outer Space Treaty at all, instead placing the focus on the accords’ principles of private enterprise.

With an alliance now of 55 nations (which is also likely to grow), the present Trump administration is well positioned to force some action on changing or eliminating the Outer Space Treaty’s limitations on private property and the ownership of territory on other worlds. Obviously this is not the most important item on Trump’s plate, but it does need to be addressed if Americans (and everyone else) are to have the freedom to establish colonies on other planets, protected by the same laws that protect Americans on Earth.

Hopefully the subtle language change seen today in this State Department press announcement is a signal that the Trump administration intends to do so.

UPDATE: It appears that NASA still wants this alliance to uphold the Outer Space Treaty. Late today it released its own press release announcing Norway’s signing, and included the boilerplate that I quote above that it began using during the Biden administration.

I wonder when (or if) Marco Rubio or any of the higher ups in the Trump administration (including Trump) will ever take an interest in this issue. So far it does not appear they have.

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SpaceX committing millions to develop the town of Starbase at Boca Chica

10:55 am

Even though the newly minted town of Starbase at Boca Chica is essentially a “company town,” with almost all its residents employees of SpaceX, the company is not treating the town in a traditional company town manner, which in the past meant the company used its monopoly control to the detriment of its employees.

Instead, it appears SpaceX is committing millions to develop the town of Starbase at Boca Chica into a very classy place to live.

The newly minted Starbase, Texas will soon have a $22 million community center, according to online records from the Texas Department of Licensing and Regulation. The community center is being designed by a Pennsylvania design firm called AE7, and will be located at 41028 Quicksilver Ave. immediately north of a bend in the Rio Grande. It will include a 20,000-square-foot building and pool, with construction aiming to start in June and be completed by June 2026, according to the TDLR records.

…Earlier this year, Starbase officials registered several other community projects with state regulators, including a $20 million school “housing children from infancy to grade 12,” whose construction was set to get underway in April. Other projects include a 2,555-square-foot medical clinic, a $2 million multifamily construction featuring a 111,745-square-foot “new parking garage and multifamily” development at 52163 Memes St.

SpaceX is also building a $100 million office building for its operations. It has also filed plans to create a $13.5 million recreation center and sushi restaurant. Another plan to build a $15 million retail plaza was proposed earlier, but has remained stalled.

Under the leadership of Elon Musk (“the new Hitler” according to the brainless Democratic Party and its media propagandists), the employees of SpaceX at Starbase will be living in an up-to-date modern and very upper middle class environment, comparable to the best suburban communities found anywhere in the United States.

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China and SpaceX complete launches

9:58 am

Two launches so far today. First, China successfully launched the first 12 satellites for proposed orbiting computer constellation dubbed the “Three-Body Computing Constellation,” its Long March 2D rocket lifting off from its Jiuquan spaceport in northwest China.

As is usual for China’s state-run press, it revealed little useful information about this constellation.

Each satellite in this initial batch is equipped with a domestically developed 8-billion-parameter AI model capable of processing satellite data across levels L0 to L4 (with L0 referring to raw data directly collected by the satellite), CGTN learned from the lab. The constellation also supports full inter-satellite connectivity. In addition to AI-powered data processing, the satellites will carry out experimental missions, including cross-orbit laser communication and astronomical science observations.

The press also provided no information about where the rocket’s lower stages, using very toxic hypergolic fuels, crashed inside China.

Next, SpaceX placed another 28 Starlink satellites into orbit, its Falcon 9 rocket lifting off from Cape Canaveral in Florida. The first stage completed its fourth flight, landing on a drone ship in the Atlantic.

The leaders in the 2025 launch race:

58 SpaceX
26 China
5 Rocket Lab
5 Russia

SpaceX still leads the rest of the world in successful launches, 58 to 43.

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Starlink gets approvals to operate in Saudi Arabia, Scotland, and Bangledesh

12:08 am

In the past two days SpaceX’s Starlink constellation for providing internet service globally has obtained approvals from three different countries, widening its use significantly worldwide.

First, Scotland has approved Starlink to begin a six-month trial whereby the constellation will provide internet access on trains operating “between Inverness and Thurso, Wick, Kyle of Lochalsh and Aberdeen.” If successful, the program will be expanded to provide service along other rural train lines in Scotland.

Next the Bangledesh government approved a 90-day waiver allowing Starlink to “supply bandwidth from outside the country.” Normally the regulations in that country require such services to be routed through “local gateways”, which likely refers to local communications companies. This waiver will allow SpaceX to offer Starlink in its normal manner, direct to the customer and outside any already established communications network.

Whether the waiver will be extended further is at present unknown, but I suspect it will be because of public pressure.

Finally, Elon Musk announced that Saudi Arabia has now approved Starlink for “aviation and maritime use” within the country.

All in all, SpaceX continues to vacuum up the world’s internet market simply because none of its competitors have made the effort to compete aggressively. They continue to cede territory to Starlink, without a fight.

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Gilmour finally gets launch license from Australian bureaucrats

11:37 am

Australian commercial spaceports
Australia’s commercial spaceports. Click for original map.

After several years of delays, the Australian rocket startup Gilmour Space today announced that it has finally been issued a launch license from the Australian Space Agency.

According to the company, “pending weather & final system checks, we’re on target for our launch window to open NET May 15.”

The launch will take place at Gilmour’s own Bowen spaceport on the east coast of Australia. The Eris rocket has three stages and is designed to launch smallsats similar to Rocket Lab’s Electron rocket.

It is amazing this company hasn’t gone bankrupt waiting for this launch license. It applied in 2022, hoping to launch that year. Three years later it finally gets the okay. The amount of cash it had to burn unnecessarily in those years would generally destroy most startups.

Whether the red tape in Australia will clear up in the future is decidedly unknown, especially with the election victory this month of the leftist party.

Hat tip BtB’s stringer Jay.

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China launches communications test satellite

9:53 am

China early this morning successfully launched another communications test satellite. its Long March 3C rocket lifting off from its Xichang spaceport in southwest China.

China’s state-run press as always released little information. All we really know is that this launch has been part of a series of recent launches putting similar communications test satellites into orbit. We also don’t know where the rocket’s lower stages, which use very toxic hypergolic fuels, crashed inside China.

The leaders in the 2025 launch race:

57 SpaceX
25 China
5 Rocket Lab
5 Russia

SpaceX still leads the rest of the world in successful launches, 57 to 42.

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Pentagon raises the list of companies that can bid on space infrastructure projects to almost two dozen

9:48 am

Capitalism in space: In its effort to rely on the private sector for its space needs, the Pentagon yesterday added fourteen space companies to its list of eight companies that can bid on space infrastructure projects.

The latest round of companies added to the project includes Capella Space, EdgeCortix, Eutelsat America Corp. OneWeb Technologies, Fairwinds Technologies and AST Space Mobile, Illumina Computing Group, Lockheed Martin Space, MapLarge, SES Space & Defense, Skycorp, SkyFi, Ursa Space, and Viasat.

They join eight other firms that were brought on board in 2022: Aalyria Technologies, Amazon Web Services, Amazon Kuiper, Anduril, Astranis, ATLAS Space Operations, Enveil, Google, Palantir, Planet Labs, Microsoft, and SpiderOak.

Essentially, the Pentagon wants these companies to compete for contracts to build various space-based communications assets, coming up with the designs and spacecraft themselves. In this round the specific goal is to develop satellite systems that can transmit data and communications to military units anywhere on the globe.

It is puzzling however that SpaceX is not included in this list, even though all its competitors are. I suspect this is because SpaceX’s Starshield version of Starlink is covered under different military programs and contracts. Or it could be that politics forced the military to exclude it in this case. Or there could be some other reason that defies logic. Understanding the byzantine workings of the government’s bureaucracy is often impossible.

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NASA engineers end second super pressure balloon flight early

9:23 am

Flight path of second super pressure balloon test
Flight path of second super pressure balloon test

Due to an issue with its power system, NASA engineers today decided to end its second super pressure balloon flight this year after only nine days, when the balloon crossed over South America and thus allowing them to recover it safely.

Although the balloon performed well and the mission successfully met its minimum requirements toward qualification of the balloon system, an issue with the power system aboard the balloon gondola prompted the team to terminate the mission early as a precaution. The team had been monitoring a power failure in one of the redundant charging systems since May 8.  “Despite the loss of one of the redundant charging systems, the remaining power system was performing very well and still able to sustain the batteries and electrical equipment over the course of the mission,” said Hamilton. “However, to be cautious, the team opted to end the flight early to get the equipment back, so we can do a full failure analysis.” 

After identifying a safe area and coordinating with Argentinian officials, the flight was safely terminated. Recovery of the balloon and payload is in progress. 

The first flight flew for seventeen days, circling the globe at the high southern latitudes. In that case issues with the balloon caused the flight to be terminated while it was over the ocean, preventing recovery. As the goal with both flights was to fly for 100 days, neither came close to that target.

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Poland completes suborbital test launch

8:36 am

A consortium of Polish private and public institutions announced on May 9, 2025 that it had successfully completed a suborbital rocket launch on April 15, 2025, testing the first stage of a planned three-stage suborbital rocket.

According to a separate release from ZPS Gamrat [one of the consortium partners], the rocket exceeded an altitude of 10 kilometres before being destroyed by its onboard flight termination system, as planned. The goal of the test was to validate the rocket’s navigation and control systems, engine performance under flight conditions, flight termination system, telemetry systems, and aerodynamic characteristics. According to the WITU release, teams are currently analysing the data collected during the flight.

The next flight will add the second stage, and is targeting a launch this summer. If successful, the third launch using all three stages will take place before the end of the year.

This solid-fueled rocket is essentially a re-invention of the Scout suborbital rockets that NASA (and its predecessor the N.A.C.A) tested and flew many times out of Wallops Island in the 1950s and 1960s. Those test flights tested many basic components used in orbital rockets today, while also doing short suborbital science research each flight. It appears Poland aims to do the same thing now.

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China launches classified satellites for military remote sensing

10:27 pm

China today successfully launched a set of classified satellites (number classified) for doing military remote sensing, its Long March 6 rocket lifting off from its Taiyuan spaceport in north China.

As usual, China’s state-run press released little information about the satellites, the launch, or where the rocket’s core stage and four strap-on boosters crashed inside China. The report did state the Long March 6 was “modified,” but did not detail how. One wonders if China has done something to improve the rocket’s upper stage, which reaches orbit and has had a tendency to break up shortly thereafter, creating large clouds of space junk.

The leaders in the 2025 launch race:

55 SpaceX
24 China
5 Rocket Lab
5 Russia

SpaceX still leads the rest of the world in successful launches, 55 to 41.

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Crash prediction for Venera failed lander now reduced to four hours

8:24 am

Venera reentry prediction
Click for original image.

UPDATE: According to several reports today such as this one, the spacecraft ended up burning up over the Indian Ocean west of Indonesia at 2:24 am (Eastern) on May 10, 2025. It remains unclear whether it can be salvaged in any way.
————————-

The Aerospace Corporation’s prediction for the final uncontrolled re-entry of the Soviet Union’s 1972 failed Venus lander Venera has now been reduced to four hours, centered above the Indian Ocean near Indonesia, as shown on the map to the right, at around 1:29 pm Eastern.

This prediction however has great uncertainty, and will change in the next few hours. However, based on the orbits depicted, there is a good chance the lander will come down over either Europe or Asia.

As it was designed to survive the very thick and very hot atmosphere of Venus, there is also a good chance it will survive its uncontrolled re-entry through Earth’s atmosphere. Since Russia inherited all the assets of the Soviet Union, it will be responsible for any damage the lander does, as per the Outer Space Treaty.

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Academics in space community scheme to continue their racist DEI policies

1:41 pm

USRA logo

A letter sent out yesterday by the Universities Space Research Association (USRA) clearly illustrated the bigoted desire of our modern Marxist academic community to continue its racist Diversity, Equity, and Inclusion (DEI) policies in hiring by hiding or renaming them so that the Trump administration might not notice.

USRA is one of several university consortiums that manage a variety of space, science, and astronomical operations for the government. In USRA’s case, it manages the Lunar Planetary Institute (LPI) for NASA.

The letter purported to announce how the organization was complying with Trump’s executive orders banning such race-based programs, but instead revealed its desire to continue them, but to do so under the table where no one could monitor them.
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China hints that it is moving forward with expansion of Tiangong-3 space station

12:39 pm

According to a statement by one Chinese official, China will use its Long March 5B rocket to soon launch more modules to its Tiangong-3 space station, expanding the station’s size considerably.

“According to the plan, the Long March 5B rocket will also carry out the future launches of additional modules for the crewed space station,” Wang Jue from China Aerospace Science and Technology Corporation (CASC) told China Central Television (CCTV) April 30. No official timeline has been released for the missions, but the comments appear to confirm plans to add modules to Tiangong, a T-shaped, three-module orbital outpost constructed across 2021-2022.

In 2022 China had hinted on this same plan, but it is three years later and nothing has yet happened. It could be this statement was an attempt at lobbying by this official, trying to convince the government to finance the new modules. Or it could be the first new module, a hub with six docking ports that will allow the additional fullsize modules to be attached, is nearing completion and launch.

Who knows? One must take all such proclamations from China with a grain of salt.

The article also notes the revisions to the Long March 5B rocket so that its core stage no longer reaches orbit to subsequently crash uncontrolled somewhere on Earth. Instead, the upper stage has been upgraded so that it gets the payload into orbit and the core stage shuts down earlier and thus falls into the ocean immediately after launch.

Hat tip to BtB’s stringer Jay.

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Rocket Lab’s as-yet unlaunched new Neutron rocket gets military contract

10:01 am

Neutron landing platform
Graphic showing Neutron landing on Rocket Lab’s
barge

Capitalism in space: Rocket Lab has won a contract from the Air Force to test the use of its new Neutron rocket for tranporting cargo quickly across the globe, despite the fact that the rocket won’t make its first launch until later this year, at the earliest.

The mission, slated for no earlier than 2026, will fall under the Air Force Research Laboratory’s (AFRL) “rocket cargo” program, which explores how commercial launch vehicles might one day deliver materiel to any point on Earth within hours—a vision akin to airlift logistics via spaceflight.

…The cargo test would be a “survivability experiment.” Neutron is expected to carry a payload that will re-enter Earth’s atmosphere, demonstrating the rocket’s ability to safely transport and deploy cargo.

Neutron is designed to bring its first stage back to a vertical landing on Earth for re-use, similar to what SpaceX does with its Falcon 9. Unlike the Falcon 9, however, Neutron’s fairings remain attached to the rocket, opening and closing like alligator jaws to deploy its satellite payloads. Since it brings the fairing back attached to the rocket and closed after satellite deployment, the plan will be to see if it can carry within this enclosed fairing this Air Force test payload and bring it back unscathed.

This contract suggests the military is very confident that Neutron will fly as planned, and will succeed in its early launches.

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Update on Vast’s space station plans

10:19 am

Haven-2
Haven-2 station once completed

Link here. The article provides a very detailed look at Vast’s short and long range plans, including its overall strategy to win NASA’s full space station construction contract by first building, launching, and occupying its small scale Haven-1 station and thus demonstrating it is the right company for NASA to finance its full scale Haven-2 rotating space station (shown in the graphic to the right).

The article notes that Vast intends to complete Haven-1’s primary structure in July, and do environmental and vibration ground testing from January to March 2026, with its planned launch on a Falcon 9 rocket in May 2026. Once launched it plans to put crews on board for a total of 30-days (though it is unclear at this moment whether that will be a single mission or a series of shorter flights).

In addition, the article reveals that the company also hopes to do two spin tests of Haven-1, testing its ability to rotate and create an artificial gravity. That aligns with the goal of Vast’s full scale Haven-2 station, which it wants to rotate as well. Since the plan is to assembly Haven-2 from upgraded Haven-1 modules, these spin tests are essential for proving the larger station’s design.

Based on this new information, I think we can now map out the evolving but still subject-to-change manned operations at Haven-1, comprising several short 3-5 day manned missions. The first will the crew test the module’s operation. The next two will be to do these spin tests, with people on board.

Vast’s strategy is fundamentally different than the other proposed stations (all listed below). Instead of taking a small NASA development grant to create designs on paper, it is spending its own money to actually launch a demonstration station. If successful, this strategy will make it very easy for NASA to pick it when the time comes to award the larger station construction contracts.

My present rankings for the four proposed commercial stations:

  • Haven-1, being built by Vast, with no NASA funds. The company is moving fast, with Haven-1 to launch and be occupied in 2026 for an estimated 30 days total. It hopes this actual hardware and manned mission will put it in the lead to win NASA’s phase 2 contract, from which it will build its much larger mult-module Haven-2 station..
  • Axiom, being built by Axiom, has launched three tourist flights to ISS, with a fourth scheduled for early June, carrying passengers from India, Hungary, and Poland. Though there have been rumors it has cash flow issues, development of its first module has been proceeding more or less as planned.
  • Starlab, being built by a consortium led by Voyager Space, Airbus, and Northrop Grumman, with an extensive partnership agreement with the European Space Agency. It recently had its station design approved by NASA.
  • Orbital Reef, being built by a consortium led by Blue Origin and Sierra Space. Overall, Blue Origin has built almost nothing, while Sierra Space has successfully tested its inflatable modules, including a full scale version, and appears ready to start building its module for launch.
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The French startup, The Exploration Company, ships its next cargo capsule prototype for launch

9:50 am

The Exploration Company, a French startup aiming to provide cargo services to both ISS and the future space stations that will replace it, has completed construction and testing of its next cargo capsule prototype, dubbed “Mission Possible,” and has shipped it to Vandenberg in California for launch on a SpaceX Falcon 9 rocket in June 2025.

In a 6 May update, The Exploration Company announced that it had completed Mission Possible’s pre-shipment review on 2 May and subsequently shipped the capsule to its launch site in the United States. The spacecraft will launch aboard a SpaceX Falcon 9 as part of the Transporter-14 rideshare mission, which is expected to lift off no earlier than June 2025.

Once launched, the Mission Possible capsule will remain attached to the Falcon 9 upper stage until after the stage completes its deorbit burn. This approach is necessary because the capsule lacks sufficient propulsion to independently deorbit itself. After separation, it will carry out a series of reorientation manoeuvres as it begins atmospheric reentry.

This capsule is 2.5 meters in diameter, smaller that its proposed commercial Nyx capsule that is the company’s eventual commercial freighter. It is also larger than the company’s first prototype, which flew on the first launch of Ariane-6 in 2024 but was unable to test its re-entry designs because of a failure in that rocket’s upper stage engine that prevented its planned controlled de-orbit.

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Europe and India sign agreement to work together on manned space flight

9:35 am

The European Space Agency (ESA) yesterday announced that it has signed an agreement with the Indian government that will lay the groundwork for them to work together on manned space exploration, first in connection with their future space station plans and later on lunar exploration.

ESA and ISRO declared their intent to work together on the interoperability of rendezvous and docking systems to allow their respective spacecraft to work together in low Earth orbit. They will also examine further activities related to astronaut training, analogue space missions – where teams test aspects of space missions in ground-based simulations – and parabolic flight activities.

…Future cooperation possibilities include ESA astronaut flight opportunities to the planned Bharatiya Antariksh Station (BAS) and early scientific utilisation, as well as developing infrastructure in low Earth orbit. The two space agencies are also discussing alignment on payloads and robotic scientific missions to the Moon.

Faced with the decommissioning of ISS in 2030, as well as the likely end to several major Artemis components (Orion and Lunar Gateway) that ESA has had a major part, it appears Europe has quickly begun looking for other alternatives. It already has partnered with the American consortium building the Starlab space station, but this new agreement with India gives it more options.

India meanwhile gets aid and support from Europe. It could even be that both are negotiating transferring some of Europe’s Lunar Gateway modules to India’s space station.

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Russia signs space agreement with Venezuela

9:23 am

The losers unite! Russia’s state-run press today announced that its government have signed a bi-lateral agreement with Venezuela to work together in space.

Moscow and Caracas have agreed to enhance cooperation in the peaceful use of outer space, including by building a Glonass ground station in Venezuela, according to a bilateral cooperation treaty.

Because of the bankruptcy at both nations, this agreement really doesn’t involve much real space development. All it really does is allow Russia to build a ground station in Venezuela for operating its orbiting Glonass GPS-type constellation, which Russia in turn has been struggling for decades to bring back into full operation after the fall of the Soviet Union.

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India tightens its satellite regulations for foreign companies

9:27 am

In what is a likely response to the increased military conflict with Pakistan, India’s government has announced new satellite regulations for foreign companies that will likely impact the operations of both Starlink and OneWeb.

The country’s Department of Telecommunications (DoT) announced 29 additional regulations May 5, citing national security interests, which also apply to companies that already hold licenses for providing space-based communication services directly to users.

The rules include a requirement for call logs and other user data to be stored in India, and new obligations for interception and monitoring under national law. Satellite operators must also show how they plan to source at least 20% of their ground infrastructure equipment from India within five years of commercial launch.

The article at the link suggests that these new regulations will have a greater impact on OneWeb than Starlink. Yet, OneWeb already has approval to sell its services in India, while Starlink has not.

The article also included one interesting tidbit from a Starlink official, noting that the company expects to have 6.5 million subscribers by the end of this year. Based on the company’s subscriber fees, that translates into many billions in revenue. Very clearly SpaceX no longer needs NASA to develop Starship.

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