Scientists: Methane from spacecraft landing on the Moon could “obscure” evidence of life

Chicken Little rules!
Chicken Little rules!

Chicken Little stupidity now abounds everywhere! Scientists using computer models say the methane fuel that many lunar landers will use can spread quickly across the entire Moon and then “obscure” any evidence of life that might be found there.

Sinibaldi and Francisca Paiva, a physicist at Instituto Superior Técnico and lead author of the study, built a computer model to simulate how that contamination might play out, using the European Space Agency’s Argonaut mission as a case study. The simulations focused on how methane, the main organic compound released during combustion of Argonaut propellants, might spread across the lunar surface during a landing at the moon’s South Pole. While previous studies had investigated how water molecules might move on the moon, none had done so for organic molecules like methane. The new model also accounted for how factors like solar wind and UV radiation would impact the methane’s behavior.

…The model showed exhaust methane reaching the North Pole in under two lunar days. Within seven lunar days (almost 7 months on Earth), more than half of the total exhaust methane had been “cold trapped” at the frigid poles — 42% at the South Pole and 12% at the North.

Though this result is of interest, as it suggests such exhaust can spread quickly on a low-gravity planet with no atmosphere, these scientists then make themselves look like fools by claiming this quick spread will contaminate the Moon, thus hindering the search for evidence of life there, and thus require new “planetary protection” measures. From their paper’s conclusion:

As lunar exploration unfolds, prioritizing effective and informed planetary protection measures will be key for safeguarding the Moon’s pristine scientific value and paving the way for a sustainable and responsible lunar exploration.

The level of foolishness in these claims is hard to measure. The Moon is the least likely place to search for evidence of past life. And regardless, limiting the use of methane fuel but allowing other exploration is not going to solve their problem. The mere presence of human activity is going to “contaminate” the Moon’s “pristine” environment. To make believe it is possible to impose some rules to prevent it is idiocy.

This whole study and its focus on “planetary protection” is really aimed at protecting the turf of these scientists. If others are allowed to explore the planets with different goals (profit or settlement instead of pure scientific research), their playground will be spoiled. Thus, they write these reports designed to give them ammunition for convincing governments to impose regulations in their favor. And they know they have allies in the UN for this purpose.

They also know they have willing allies in the propaganda press. Be prepared for numerous mainstream stories in the next day or so, touting this study with no skepticism.

Study: If Europa has an underground ocean, it is lifeless and dormant

Scientists analyzing the conditions that are believed to exist in Europa’s theorized underground ocean have concluded there is little geological activity within that ocean, reducing significantly the chances there is life there.

A new study led by Paul Byrne, an associate professor of earth, environmental and planetary sciences, at Washington University in St. Louis, throws cold water on the idea that Europa could support life at the seafloor. Using calculations that consider the moon’s size, the makeup of its rocky core and the gravitational forces from Jupiter, Byrne and a team of scientists conclude that Europa likely lacks the tectonic motion, warm hydrothermal vents or any other sort of underwater geologic activity that would presumably be a prerequisite for life.

“If we could explore that ocean with a remote-control submarine, we predict we wouldn’t see any new fractures, active volcanoes or plumes of hot water on the seafloor,” Byrne said. “Geologically, there’s not a lot happening down there. Everything would be quiet.” And on an icy world like Europa, a quiet seafloor might well mean a lifeless ocean, he added.

You can read the paper here [pdf]. It admits in its conclusion that these results have a lot of uncertainty, and the Europa Clipper mission, set to arrive in orbit around Jupiter in 2031, will reduce that uncertainty but not eliminate it, adding that “Ultimately, however, the true test of our results here will require directly accessing the ocean and, perhaps one day, the ocean floor itself.”

The growing X-ray shell of the 1604 Kepler supernova

Kepler's supernovae remnant over time
Click to see movie.

Cool image time! Astronomers now have created a short movie from X-ray data compiled by the Chandra X-ray Observatory accumulated during the past quarter century showing the expansion of the cloud ejected from the 1604 supernova discovered by astronomer Johannes Kepler.

The two images to the right are the first and last frames in the movie. Though they appear the same, if you look closely you will see that in the more recent image the cloud is larger. From the press release:

Supernova remnants, the debris fields left behind after a stellar explosion, often glow strongly in X-ray light because the material has been heated to millions of degrees from the blast. The remnant is located in our galaxy, about 17,000 light-years from Earth, allowing Chandra to make … detailed images of the debris and how it changes with time. This latest video includes its X-ray data from 2000, 2004, 2006, 2014, and 2025. This makes it the longest-spanning video that Chandra has ever released, enabled by Chandra’s longevity. Only Chandra, with its sharp X-ray images and longevity, can see changes like those seen here.

…The researchers used the video to show that the fastest parts of the remnant are traveling at about 13.8 million miles per hour (2% of the speed of light), moving toward the bottom of the image. Meanwhile, the slowest parts are traveling toward the top at about 4 million miles per hour (0.5% of the speed of light). This large difference in speed is because the gas that the remnant is plowing into toward the top of the image is denser than the gas toward the bottom. This gives scientists information about the environments into which this star exploded.

This is one of the curses that astronomers live with. Things take a loooong time to unfold, often several generations. Thus Kepler might see this supernova when it erupts, but the explosion continues for many centuries.

An excellent summary of Europe’s rocket companies, both established and startups

Link here. This list is a great summary of all the rocket companies in Europe, most of which are startups that haven’t yet launched. It also includes the two companies that are already established, ArianeGroup and Avio.

With each company the report provides a nice quick status overview. It ranks some lower than I (Rocket Factory Augsburg), but the analysis is based on all the same stories I’ve posted here on Behind the Black in the past year, plus a few extra details about companies I had not yet heard of.

Based on this review, it appears that at least three European startups are gearing up for a first launch in 2026. It would be surprising if all three succeed in getting off the ground, but the momentum is definitely building towards a lot of excitement in the next year or two.

Rocketdyne to reappear with sale by L3Harris of its civilian rocket engine division

The name Rocketdyne is about to rise from the ashes with the sale by L3Harris of its civilian rocket engine division to the private equity firm AE Industrial Partners.

The firm is selling a 60 percent stake, worth $845 million, and maintaining about a 40 percent share of the space propulsion business unit, which focuses on technologies related to NASA and civil space activities. For example, its products include nuclear power systems for future missions to the moon and Mars, and the RL10 engine that powers the upper stage for United Launch Alliance’s Vulcan heavy lifter.

That said, the RS-25 rocket engine business is excluded from the sale; the engine is the primary propulsion system on NASA’s Space Launch System being designed to send crews to the moon under the Artemis mission.

When L3Harris purchased Aerojet-Rocketdyne in 2023, the names of these two companies from the very beginnings of the space age vanished. It now appears that AE is going to bring one back.

AE Industrial ― which previously has invested in commercial space companies including York Space Systems, Redwire and Firefly — said in an announcement today that the new entity will be named Rocketdyne “in recognition of its heritage and longstanding innovation within space propulsion technology.”

Aerojet-Rocketdyne had been in trouble for years prior to is purchase, and it remains uncertain whether the engine part of this new Rocketdyne company can compete. Its main business right now is building the engines used by the SLS rocket, which in the long run has a limited future.

Detection of the wake of Betelgeuse’s companion star

The wake of Betelgeuse's companion star

Astronomers believe they have detected evidence of the wake created by Betelgeuse’s companion star as it plows through the primary star’s vast atmosphere.

You can read their paper here [pdf]. The cartoon to the right, annotated by me to post here, is figure 5 of the paper, looking down at Betelgeuse’s pole. It is not to scale. The scientists have nicknamed the companion Siwarha.

The team detected Siwarha’s wake by carefully tracking changes in the star’s light over nearly eight years. These changes show the effects of the previously unconfirmed companion as it plows through the outer atmosphere of Betelgeuse. This discovery resolves one of the biggest mysteries about the giant star, helping scientists to explain how it behaves and evolves while opening new doors to understanding other massive stars nearing the end of their lives.

Located roughly 650 light-years away from Earth in the constellation Orion, Betelgeuse is a red supergiant star so large that more than 400 million Suns could fit inside. Because of its enormous size and proximity, Betelgeuse is one of the few stars whose surface and surrounding atmosphere can be directly observed by astronomers, making it an important and accessible laboratory for studying how giant stars age, lose mass, and eventually explode as supernovae.

Using NASA’s Hubble and ground-based telescopes at the Fred Lawrence Whipple Observatory and Roque de Los Muchachos Observatory, the team was able to see a pattern of changes in Betelgeuse, which provided clear evidence of a long-suspected companion star and its impact on the red supergiant’s outer atmosphere. Those include changes in the star’s spectrum, or the specific colors of light given off by different elements, and the speed and direction of gases in the outer atmosphere due to a trail of denser material, or wake. This trail appears just after the companion crosses in front of Betelgeuse every six years, or about 2,100 days, confirming theoretical models.

Betelgeuse is essentially a giant blob that undulates like a blob of water floating in weightlessness on ISS. Knowing the location and orbit of this companion will help astronomers better understand the central star’s periodic inexplicable changes.

“Round Deposits” in Martian crater

Round deposits in a crater
Click for original image.

Today’s cool image could also be entered into my “What the heck?!” category of strange Martian geology. The picture to the right, cropped, reduced, and sharpened to post here, was taken on October 19, 2025 by the high resolution camera on Mars Reconnaissance Orbiter (MRO).

The science team labels this as “Round Deposits in Crater.” And yup, that’s what we have, round and flat small mesas inside an unnamed 3,500-foot-wide very shallow crater (no more than 10-20 feet deep) that also appears to be sitting higher than the surrounding landscape. Furthermore, several nearby craters are also raised, with one having its own oblong flat interior mesa. Moreover, the terrain around the crater appears stippled, as if it has been eroding or sublimating away.

The latitude, 37 degrees north, provides the first clue for explaining this weird landscape.
» Read more

A UK law professor and news outlet prove the UK is not the place to launch rockets

Proposed or active spaceports in North Europe
Proposed or active spaceports in North Europe

If I had any remaining hopes that the United Kingdom might finally begin to reform its Byzantine space regulations that bankrupted one rocket company and has blocked any launches from its proposed spaceports for almost a decade — allowing other spaceports in Europe to attract rocket companies and leap ahead — those hopes vanished in reading an article in the Shetland Times today, in which a professor specializing in UK space law described its red tape as “very good,” drawing “on best practice from other industries and jurisdictions.”

Alexander Simmonds of the University of Dundee says a balance should be struck to avoid launch operators being put off by strict regulatory requirements. The lecturer in space law and writer behind The Space Legislation of the United Kingdom says UK regulation of the space industry is “very good” and draws on best practice from other industries and jurisdictions.

Licences are in place for SaxaVord to host the first vertical satelite launch in 2026, and Dr Simmonds says operators have taken responsibilities “very seriously”. But he fears future operators could look elsewhere if compliance becomes too much of a problem and more cost-effective alternatives are available.

“My own view is we’re in a very good place at the moment, as regards to regulation,” Dr Simmonds told The Shetland Times. “I think that the legilsators have been cautious with this and have been very entitled to be, given the nature of what we are dealing with.”

Both this so-called expert and the journalist interviewing him appear entirely ignorant about the history of past decade. While red tape in the UK has blocked or seriously delayed launches, rocket startups have “looked elsewhere,” signing deals and launching from Norway’s long established Andoya spaceport that has now gone commercial with enthusiastic government support. At the same time, new spaceport projects have begun at three other locations, all of which appear to also have support from their local governments in Sweden and Germany. While the UK government has choked off business, the governments at these other spaceports have moved aggressively to ease regulation.

The cluelessness of both Simmonds and the Shetland Times reporter indicates there is absolutely no urgency in the UK to fix things, and in fact it appears they aren’t even aware their emperor is wearing no clothes.

The space station race: Startup Max Space to establish factory at Kennedy in Florida

Thunderbird, with cut-out showing interior and person for scale
Max Space’s proposed Thunderbird station, with cut-out showing
interior and person for scale. Click for original images.

The space station startup Max Space has apparently decided to establish its manufacturing facility at the Kennedy Space Center in Florida, and expects to hire its first 30 to 50 employees there this year.

Currently working with Space Florida, Max Space is moving toward setting up operation in Exploration Park on Space Commerce Way, and has already begun hiring. While the company already has a address in Exploration Park, they are seeking to set up in an existing 20,000 to 30,000 square-foot manufacturing facility. This is where the large space habitat modules will be manufactured.

While Space Florida confirmed Max Space’s intentions to move into the area, no further details were provided. Max Space said they expect to bring 30 to 50 new hires onboard within the first half of 2026.

The company had previously positioned itself as the builder of modules that any one of the four other commercial private space stations could buy and add to their stations. It now appears it has decided to enter the competition as its own station, proposing Thunderbird as its bid. It is gearing up to fly a smaller demonstration mission in ’27 to prove its inflatable design that is based on the same technology used by the modules built by the now-defunct company Bigelow.

With this in mind, I have now added Max Space to my rankings of the commercial stations under construction, and have placed it ahead of Blue Origin’s Orbital Reef station, based on my impression of where both projects presently stand. Essentially, they are tied for last place, but I put Max Space ahead because it seems to have positive momentum, while the partnership of Blue Origin and Sierra Space appears to be faltering.
» Read more

Innospace releases preliminary results of launch failure

The South Korean rocket startup Innospace last week released its first preliminary results of its investigation into the December 22, 2025 failure during the first orbital launch attempt of its Hanbit-Nano rocket.

Based on video footage and preliminary data available to date, the vehicle achieved approximately 30 seconds of nominal ascent. During its passage through cloud layers, communication between the vehicle and ground systems was lost. Subsequently, the vehicle sustained structural damage of an undetermined cause, leading to separation into multiple sections and indications of first-stage engine thrust termination. As a result, the vehicle lost propulsion and attitude control and entered free fall, separating into the first stage, second stage, and smaller debris fragments.

As the calculated Instant Impact Point (IIP) remained within the launch site’s designated safety perimeter, and to prevent debris dispersion and residual hazards, the Flight Termination System (FTS) was activated in accordance with procedures pre-coordinated with Brazilian safety authorities. The launch vehicle was detonated at the point of ground impact, resulting in early mission termination.

In plain language, the rocket broke up about 30 seconds after lift-off, and as its pieces hit the ground engineers activated the self-destruct software.

The company says it hopes to try again in ’26, launching once again from Brazil’s Alcantera spaceport. I suspect it will take longer than that to pin down the cause of the rocket’s “structural damage” and fix it. The data so far suggests a fundamental flaw that require a major redesign.

Review of SpaceX’s 2026 Superheavy/Starship test flights

Link here. The article begins by reviewing the work SpaceX is doing at both Boca Chica in Texas and Cape Canaveral in Florida. In the end, the company is aiming to have two Starship launchpads at Boca Chica and three launchpads in Florida, with both locations have extensive manufacturing facilities capable of building ships and boosters almost continually.

It then provides a nice review of all five Superheavy/Starship test flights that took place in 2025, a review that makes it very clear how much was accomplished, and indicates the possibilities for ’26. If SpaceX could manage almost one flight every two and a half months last year, despite two test stand explosions, the odds are excellent it will exceed that pace this year.

SpaceX launches 29 more Starlink satellites, plus a review of its Falcon 9 first stage fleet

The beat goes on: SpaceX tonight successfully launched another 29 Starlink satellites, its Falcon 9 rocket lifting off from Cape Canaveral in Florida.

This was SpaceX’s second launch in 2026. At this moment the company is the only one to have launched anything this year.

The rocket’s first stage was on its first flight, landing successfully on a drone ship in the Atlantic. As new boosters are now introduced so rarely, I decided to look back at how many new stages SpaceX has been introducing each year to get a sense of the size of its fleet. The rough chart below is based on the data on this Wikipedia page. It begins in 2018 because that is when SpaceX introduced the Block 5 version of the stage that it still uses, and says is designed to do as many as 40 flights.

New stages introduced each year:
—————————————–
2018: 6 (all now deactivated or expended)
2019: 7 (all now deactivated or expended)
2020: 4 (all now deactivated or expended)
2021: 3
2022: 7 (5 deactivated or expended)
2023: 9 (5 deactivated or expended)
2024: 9 (3 deactivated or expended)
2025: 8

According to that webpage, SpaceX has approximately 25 active stages in its fleet. The numbers above suggest the company has been increasing the size of its fleet steadily. In fact, since 2022 it appears the company has added 23 stages to the fleet. In 2025 it appears it added a new stage about every 20 launches.

This estimate is rough and is almost certainly not precisely accurate. For example, several stages listed as active have flown only once, or have not flown in awhile.

Nonetheless, this rough count helps explain how SpaceX can launch so frequently. It now has a robust fleet of Falcon 9 boosters to draw on, and it is growing that fleet to meet its needs. All it needs to do is make sure it can manufacture enough upper stages and satellites to fill its launch manifest.

NASA: The leak in the Zvezda module on ISS has apparently been sealed

According to one NASA official, the leaks in the Zvezda module on ISS that have been on-going for more than five years have apparently all been sealed.

However, recently two sources indicated that the leaks have stopped. And NASA has now confirmed this. “Following additional inspections and sealing activities, the pressure in the transfer tunnel attached to the Zvezda Service Module of the International Space Station, known as the PrK, is holding steady in a stable configuration,” a space agency spokesman, Josh Finch, told Ars. “NASA and Roscosmos continue to monitor and investigate the previously observed cracks for any future changes that may occur.”

While good news, no one should feel sanguine. The leaks occurred because the hull of Zvezda has developed stress fractures, due to age (more than a quarter century in orbit) and the repeated dockings to its aft port. Future fractures and leaks are still possible, with the chance of a catastrophic failure very possible.

It would be prudent for NASA to continue to shut the hatch between the U.S. and Russian halves of the station, whenever a docking is taking place.

India’s space agency: At least six launches in 2026

According to remarks by the head of India’s space agency ISRO last week, the agency is planning at least six launches in 2026, including two unmanned test flights of its Gaganyaan manned capsule.

Also planned will be the first launch of its PSLV rocket that was manufactured entirely by commercial vendors, rather than ISRO itself. The goal by the Modi government had been to transfer ownership of the rocket to private companies, but ISRO revised that to retain control and ownership while giving manufacture to the private companies HAL & L&T, thus defeating the essential goal of shifting power to the private sector.

The total does not include possible orbital attempts by two rocket startups, Skyroot and Agnikul.

SpaceX completes first launch in 2026

The beat goes on! SpaceX tonight successfully placed an Italian Earth observation satellite into orbit, its Falcon 9 lifting off from Vandenberg Space Force Base.

The satellite’s data will be used by Italy for both military and civil purposes. The rocket’s first stage completed its 21st flight, landing back at Vandenberg. The two fairings completed their 2nd and 23rd flights respectively.

At this moment, SpaceX has the only launch in 2026.

Many Martian mysteries in one spot

Many Martian mysteries in one spot
Click for original image.

Just because there are no new images coming back from Mars at this time because the Sun is in the way does not mean we can’t enjoy more cool Martian images. The picture to the right, cropped, reduced, and sharpened to post here, was taken on October 20, 2025 by the high resolution camera on Mars Reconnaissance Orbiter (MRO).

Labeled merely a “terrain sample,” this means it was taken not as part of any particular research project but to fill a gap in the camera’s schedule. The camera team needs to take regular photographs in order to maintain the camera’s proper temperature, and when there is a long gap they add a terrain sample image to the schedule. Usually they try to pick some target of interest.

In this case the target is this 2,500-foot-high cliff, in which we can see a whole range of Martian geological mysteries. First there are the slope streaks on the cliff, a feature unique to Mars but as yet unexplained. Resembling avalanches, these streaks leave no debris piles at their base, do not change the topography in any way, and can appear randomly throughout the year, fading with time. Though the streaks in this picture are dark, streaks can also be bright.

Both the parallel ridges at the base of the cliff, as well as the cliff itself, are remnants of other major geological events, at least based on present theories.
» Read more

SpaceX doing trial runs of specialized barge for transporting Starship/Superheavy from Boca Chica to Florida

SpaceX has now confirmed that it is doing trial runs of a barge specifically designed for transporting Starship/Superheavy from the manufacturing facility in Boca Chica to its Florida launchpads.

[SpaceX’s Vice President of Launch, Kiko] Dontchev also clarified that both the Super Heavy booster and Starship upper stage would be tilted to a horizontal position for maritime transit, in response to an artist’s rendering of a Starship traveling vertically aboard a vessel. “Initial deliveries are a single booster or ship per trip, with the plan to move to multiple vehicles per transit sooner than later,” he wrote. “You’ll thank me later.”

These barge trials, combined with the fact that SpaceX has already shipped significant Starship/Superheavy components to Florida even as it builds rocket manufacturing facility there, strongly suggest the first Florida launches are not too far in the future, possibly even this year.

ESA funds Danish lunar orbiter

The European Space Agency (ESA) has agreed to fund the first Danish-built interplanetary probe, a smallsat lunar orbiter dubbed Mani that will launch in ’29 and map the Moon’s surface.

The Máni mission is a lunar mission that will use a satellite to map the Moon’s surface with high-resolution images and create detailed 3D maps. The goal is to make it safer for astronauts and lunar rovers to land and move around on the Moon. The satellite will orbit the Moon’s north and south poles, which are key areas for future human missions.

The mission will also map how light reflects from areas on the Moon that are used to study Earth’s ability to reflect sunlight onto the lunar surface – the so-called earthshine. This knowledge could improve our understanding of how Earth’s climate will evolve.

The University of Copenhagen leads the mission and is responsible for the mission’s Science Operations Center, which will plan which areas to map and analyze the vast number of images generated.[emphasis mine]

I love how this European press release about a lunar orbiter somehow makes its most important mission studying climate change on Earth. Utterly idiotic.

Mani will use the changing shadows to create detailed topographic maps. As it is unlikely it will be capable of providing better data than produced over the past sixteen years by Lunar Reconnaissance Orbiter (LRO), this mission is mostly an engineering demo by Denmark and the Danish startup, Space Inventor, that is building the satellite for a consortium of universities. If successful the satellite will possibly be able to replace LRO (which is going to fail sooner or later), and provide data on any lunar surface changes that occur in the future.

SpaceX to do a major orbital reconfiguration of its Starlink constellation

According to a X post yesterday by Michael Nicholls, SpaceX’s Starlink engineering vice-president, the company over the next year will be lowering the orbits of more than 4,000 satellites in its Starlink constellation, in order to allow the company to more quickly de-orbit them if they fail.

We are lowering all Starlink satellites orbiting at ~550 km to ~480 km (~4400 satellites) over the course of 2026. The shell lowering is being tightly coordinated with other operators, regulators, and USSPACECOM.

Lowering the satellites results in condensing Starlink orbits, and will increase space safety in several ways. As solar mininum approaches, atmospheric density decreases which means the ballistic decay time at any given altitude increases – lowering will mean a >80% reduction in ballistic decay time in solar minimum, or 4+ years reduced to a few months. Correspondingly, the number of debris objects and planned satellite constellations is significantly lower below 500 km, reducing the aggregate likelihood of collision.

Nicholls notes that it presently has only two dead satellites in the present fleet of 9,000 satellites, but decided to do this move regardless, as it also apparently will reduce collision risks with other satellites as well.

Not surprisingly, China’s state-run press and our anti-capitalism propaganda press immediately tried to give China credit for this change, while lambasting SpaceX. That China is contributing to the risk of collision with its own multiple giant satellite constellations and is doing nothing on its own is apparently irrelevant to both. Our nice of them.

The three week communications blackout from Mars has begun

Last image before blackout from Curiosity
Click for original.

Last image before blackout from Perseverance
Click for original.

The two images to the right, both downloaded today (here and here) from the Mars rovers Curiosity (top) and Perseverance, illustrate quite clearly the beginning of the three-week-long communications blackout from Mars caused every two years when the orbits of Earth and Mars places the Sun in-between. As the Curiosity science team noted in a December 22, 2025 update:

This holiday season coincides with conjunction — every two years, because of their different orbits, Earth and Mars are obstructed from one another by the Sun; this one will last from Dec. 27 to Jan. 20. We do not like to send commands through the Sun in case they get scrambled, so we have been finishing up a few last scientific observations before preparing Curiosity for its quiet conjunction break.

Apparently engineers were able to squeeze data and images from Mars for a few extra days, but the incomplete nature of these two pictures — combined with the lack of any other new images today — tells us that the blackout has definitely begun. That they were able to get these additional images after conjunction began suggests the blackout might also end a bit earlier than expected.

Though there is always a concern that something could go wrong while communications are blocked, the risks are small. The science teams for all the Mars orbiters and rovers have dealt with this situation now almost a dozen times since operations became routine there more than a quarter century ago.

The only spacecraft at real risk this conjunction is Maven. Contact was lost from it in early December for unknown reasons, and all efforts to regain communications have so far failed. All engineers know from the little data they have gotten back is it appears to be tumbling. This three week blackout will make any chance of recovery extremely unlikely.

The global launch industry in 2025: The real space race is between SpaceX and China

In 2025 the worldwide revolution in rocketry that began about a decade ago continued. Across the globe new private commercial rocket companies are forming, not just in the United States. And across the globe, the three-quarters-of-a century domination by government space agencies is receding, though those agencies are right now pushing back with all their might to protect their turf.

Dominating this revolution in 2025 in every way possible however were two entities, one a private American company and the second a communist nation attempting to imitate capitalism. The former is SpaceX, accomplishing more in this single year than whole nations and even the whole globe had managed in any year since the launch of Sputnik. The latter is China, which in 2025 became a true space power, its achievements matching and even exceeding anything done by either the U.S. or the Soviet Union for most of the space age.
» Read more

Turkey and Somalia confirm spaceport plans

Somalia

In a public meeting of the presidents of Turkey and Somalia in Istanbul yesterday, Turkish President Recep Erdogan confirmed that Turkey has begun construction of a spaceport in Somalia.

Astrophysicist Umut Yildiz said the project, announced by President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and detailed by Industry and Technology Minister Mehmet Fatih Kacir, offers Türkiye significant geographic and technological opportunities.

…President Erdogan said the first phase of the three-stage project has been completed and construction has begun under the Türkiye Space Agency, adding that the goal is to establish significant infrastructure in space launch and satellite technologies.

Minister Kacir said the spaceport will become a strategic, revenue-generating infrastructure for Türkiye through growing commercial satellite launch services, testing activities and integration processes, while also contributing to Somalia’s development.

This spaceport plan had first been revealed by Turkish officials two weeks ago, but yesterday’s press conference now makes it official.

No press release from Turkey’s state-run press however revealed the spaceport’s precise location in Somalia. Nor is it confirmed that any actual construction has begun. I suspect it will be a very long time before anything actually launches from the site.

Space Force requests proposals for new Vandenberg launchpad for heavy and super-heavy rockets

Vandenberg Space Force Base

The Space Force on December 29, 2025 released a request for information (RFI) from the private sector for building a new launchpad at the southern-most tip of Vandenberg Space Force Base, for use by “new” heavy and super-heavy rockets.

The Space Force said it prefers to use the site for new vehicles rather than ones that already have launch sites at Vandenberg, to “increase launch diversity” at the base. The service is also interested in vehicles with “unique capabilities,” such as point-to-point transportation or the ability to return payloads.

The RFI emphasizes the need for “technically mature” vehicles capable of operating from SLC-14 within five years of signing a lease agreement. Companies must also provide details about their operations to address safety concerns and minimize impacts on other launch operators at the base.

You can read the actual RFI here. The map to the right, taken from the RFI and annotated to post here, labels the area under consideration as “Sudden Flats”. SpaceX’s two launchpads are indicated, with SLC-6 presently under development.

Though the description of the request appears to favor SpaceX, it could also apply to Blue Origin’s New Glenn as well as the company’s proposed larger versions of that rocket.

The request asks for proposals within 30 days.

China launches two satellites for “new technology verification for space target detection”

China today successfully launched two technology test satellites designed to do “space target detection”, its Long March 7A rocket lifting off from its coastal Wenchang spaceport.

China’s state-run press provided no other information. It also appears the drop zones for the rocket’s lower stages were once again in Philippino waters, requiring that government to warn its citizens to avoid those zones and subsequent any rocket debris.

The leaders in the 2025 launch race:

168 SpaceX
90 China (a new record)
18 Rocket Lab
17 Russia

SpaceX still leads the rest of the world in successful launches, 168 to 150.

At this moment no other launches are scheduled before the end of the year, thus closing out the 2025 year in rocketry. I will publish my annual global report in the next few days. Stay tuned.

The up and down tale of two rocket startups, Vector and Phantom

Jim Cantrell and cars
Jim Cantrell at Vector in 2017, shown in front of
one of his side businesses, fixing and refurbishing race
cars and rare luxury sports cars (located then at Vector).

The tales of rocket startups are often fraught with ups and downs of all kinds, often traveling in circles that no one can ever predict. This is one such tale.

In the mid-2010s there was a rocket startup called Vector, based here in Tucson, founded by a guy named Jim Cantrell. At that time Cantrell pushed the company in the style of Elon Musk, going very public for publicity and to raise investment capital.

He was remarkable successful at both. Unfortunately, his engineers were not as successful at engine building. After years of effort they all realized that their rocket engines were under-powered, and wouldn’t be able to get the rocket into orbit. In 2019 the company’s biggest investor backed out, Cantrell left the company, and new owners took over, hoping to rebuild.

Flash forward to 2021, and Jim Cantrell has reappeared with a new rocket company, Phantom Space, also based in Tucson, raising $6 million in seed capital. In the next four years he obtained a small development contract from NASA, completed two more investment rounds raising first $22 million and then around $37 million, and began development of a new orbital rocket, dubbed Daytona. The company also began work on its own small satellite constellation, PhantomCloud (more on this later).

As for Vector, there was little to report during those four years. The only update said the company was buying engines from the rocket engine startup Ursa Major, the same company Phantom was using.

It is now the end of 2025, and the fate of these two companies has once again intertwined, in a most ironic manner. Last week I learned from Jim Cantrell that Vector had closed shop, and that its last remaining assets, some of which Cantrell himself had helped develop when he headed Vector, had been bought by Phantom. This includes several unused rocket stages, the vertical rocket test stands, a lot of computers, and hardware.
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Colliding galaxies, as seen in the infrared and X-rays

Colliding galaxies in the infrared and X-rays
Click for original image.

Today’s cool image illustrates how beautiful images of heavenly objects don’t always have to be in wavelengths our eyes can see. With the wonders of modern technology, we can now see wondrous things in wavelengths that are invisible to us.

The picture to the right, cropped and reduced to post here, is a perfect illustration. It was released on December 1, 2025, and combines X-ray data from the Chandra X-ray Observatory with infrared data from the Webb Space Telescope. From the caption:

This view of NGC 2207 and IC 2163 takes a James Webb mid-infrared image (white, gray, and red) and adds the X-ray view from Chandra (blue). Together, it is quite an eye-catching result.

…Here, both spirals are shown face on, with the smaller of the two galaxies, IC 2163, at the upper left of the larger galaxy, NGC 2207, which dominates the center and lower right of the image. Both galaxies have long, spiraling, silver blue arms, dotted with specs of blue and red. Toward our upper left, the curving arms overlap, and bend toward their neighbors’ core.

In optical wavelengths the gossamer lines of structure would be lost, overwhelmed by the light of each galaxy’s stars.

European Space Agency hacked

It appears some of the European Space Agency’s (ESA) servers have been hacked, with some of its internal data placed for sale on the web.

On 26 December, reports began to emerge on X claiming that ESA had suffered a significant data breach, with a hacker using the alias “888” offering more than 200 gigabytes of data for sale. According to the hacker’s listing, the allegedly compromised data included source code for proprietary software, sensitive project documentation, API tokens, and hardcoded credentials.

ESA has since issued a statement claiming the data breach was limited, but according to information posted on X, the breach included “Confidential internal documents (Airbus Defence & Space, Thales Alenia Space)” and “sensitive technical information related to space programs.”

I wouldn’t be surprised if China is bidding for this information right now. Then again, Europe’s space effort is so unimpressive compared to China that China might not see the information worth much.

Russia’s early warning satellite constellation is apparently no longer functioning

The satellites in Russia’s constellation for giving its military early warning of missile attacks, dubbed EKS, have been one-by-one failing in recent years, and it now appears the last one has now experienced a malfunction as well.

After the launch of the 6th Tundra satellite in 2022, the Russian military seemingly gave up on the effort to deploy the EKS early warning constellation or, possibly, the industry was simply unable to build new satellites due to technical problems associated with the Western sanctions and/or financial problems. No fresh satellites were launched into the network in the following three years, while, according to an analyst of the Russian strategic nuclear forces Pavel Podvig, the orbital tracking indicated that from March 2025 to December of the same year, the number of operational Tundra satellites fell from three to just one, possibly as a result of in-orbit failures.

…As of December 2025, Kosmos-2552 (EKS-5) was the only satellite within the EKS system which did not show a clear sign of failure, according to Podvig, but the spacecraft did miss a maneuver expected in November 2025, based on the usual pattern of its detectable orbit adjustments.

None of this is a surprise. Russia’s invasion of the Ukraine has not only isolated the country, it has crippled it in numerous ways, both financially and technologically. It no longer has access to many western high tech components it had relied on, and the loss of all its international launch customers has left its rocket industry devoid of hard currency.

Thus, when Russia makes any grandiose claims about its future space plans, it is wise to harbor great doubts.

China launches Earth mapping satellite

China yesterday successfully placed what it called a “geographic mapping” satellite, its Long March 4B rocket lifting off from its Jiuquan spaceport in northwest China.

Its state-run press provided no additional information about the satellite, nor did it provide any information about where the rocket’s lower stages, using very toxic hypergolic fuels, crashed inside China.

The leaders in the 2025 launch race:

168 SpaceX
89 China (a new record)
18 Rocket Lab
17 Russia

SpaceX still leads the rest of the world in successful launches, 168 to 149.

The headwaters of an ancient Martian channel

glacial debris in canyon floor
Click for original image.

Cool image time! The picture to the right, rotated, cropped, reduced, and sharpened to post here, was taken on October 24, 2025 by the high resolution camera on Mars Reconnaissance Orbiter (MRO).

The science team labels this simply as “irregular terrain.” It is far more than that. We are looking at a three-mile-wide shallow canyon, with what appear to be eroding glacial features on the canyon floor.

The location is at 35 degrees north latitude, so finding glacial features here is entirely unsurprising, especially because this location is the southern edge of the 2,000-mile-long mid-latitude strip in Mar’ northern hemisphere I label glacier country, because almost every picture shows such glacial features.

In this case, the channel also suggests a much more complex geological history, that could involve flowing water though flowing glaciers are increasingly becoming an alternative explanation.
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