Tag: spaceflight

Long March 5B rolls to launchpad, carrying China’s next large space station module

9:59 am

Long March 5B being rolled to launch site
Long March 5B being rolled to launch site

China’s big Long March 5B rocket was successfully rolled to its launch site yesterday in preparation for a July 24, 2022 launch that will put China’s next large space station module, Wentian, into orbit.

The Wentian module, with a launch weight near 44,000 pounds (20 metric tons), will dock with the Tianhe core module on China’s Tiangong station in low Earth orbit. Chinese astronauts Chen Dong, Liu Yang, and Cai Xuzhe living on the Tiangong complex will monitor Wentian’s arrival, then become the first crew members to float into the station’s new module.

The launch this weekend will add the second of three large pressurized modules needed to complete the initial construction of the Tiangong space station. The Tianhe core module launched on a Long March 5B rocket in April 2021, and Chinese ground teams are preparing the Mengtian module for launch on a Long March 5B rocket in October.

The big question mark however concerning this upcoming launch is the central core stage of the Long March 5B, seen in the picture above surrounded by four strap-on boosters with Wentian stacked on top. In all previous Long March 5B launches, that core stage reached orbit, deployed its payload, and then crashed to Earth uncontrolled because its main engines could not be restarted. Will this core stage do the same?

The name of this particular Long March 5B also carries with it a new suffix, “Y3”. In the past when the Chinese added letters to a name it was because the rocket had been changed or upgraded in some manner. Furthermore, in March China did some static fire engine tests of what were suggested to be new engines for the core stage.

Developed by the China Aerospace Science and Technology Corporation, the engine is designed for the core stage of the Long March-5 carrier rocket series, which will be used to launch two lab modules of China’s orbiting Tiangong space station this year.

The long-range test, lasting 520 seconds, has verified the reliability of the engine, and there will be more than 20 experimental tasks that the rocket engine will undergo to further test its performance, the company disclosed.

Based on this meager information, it appears that China might have upgraded the core stage’s engines so they can be restarted and the stage’s de-orbit can be controlled so it crashes over the ocean, not over some random point of inhabited land. We shall have to wait until after the launch on July 24th to find out.

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The May micrometeoroid impact on Webb’s mirror

9:37 am

Figure 3 from report

In a detailed report [pdf] of Webb’s overall excellent operational status following its in-space commissioning, the science team also included an analysis of the May 2022 micrometeoriod impact on one segment of Webb’s mirror.

The image to the right, taken from figure 3 of the report, shows the remaining alignment error of Webb’s entire mirror, after alignment. Except for that one bright spot in the segment to the lower right, all of the segments show excellent alignment, well within the range predicted before launch. The bright spot however is from the impact, and suggests that one mirror segment is significantly damaged. From the report:

The micrometeoroid which hit segment C3 in the period 22—24 May 2022 UT caused significant uncorrectable change in the overall figure of that segment. However, the effect was small at the full telescope level because only a small portion of the telescope area was affected. After two subsequent realignment steps, the telescope was aligned to a minimum of 59 nm rms, which is about 5-10 nm rms above the previous best wavefront error rms values 7 . It should be noted that the drifts and stability levels of the telescope mean that science observations will typically see telescope contribution between 60 nm rms (minimum) and 80 nm rms (where WF control will typically be performed). Further, the telescope WFE combines with the science instrument WFE to yield total observatory levels in the range 70-130 nm (see Table 2), so the slight increase to telescope WFE from this strike has a relatively smaller effect on total observatory WFE.

In plain English, the impact while damaging has not seriously reduced the telescope’s predicted capabilities.

However, to be hit with this size impact so soon after launch is very worrisome, especially because Webb’s mirror is not housed in any protective tube like Hubble or most telescopes. From the report:

It is not yet clear whether the May 2022 hit to segment C3 was a rare event (i.e. an unlucky early strike by a high kinetic energy micrometeoroid that statistically might occur only once in several years), or whether the telescope may be more susceptible to damage by micrometeoroids than pre-launch modeling predicted.

The science team is presently trying to anticipate what might happen if the impact rate turns out to be much higher than expected, and what can be done to mitigate the degradation of the mirror should more impacts occur.

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Russia may delay its Luna-25 lander again

9:10 am

The landing area for Luna-25
The landing zone for Luna-25 at Boguslawsky Crater

According to Russia’s state run media, Roscosmos is considering delaying its Luna-25 lander again from September ’22 to sometime next year because of recently discovered issues with its landing system.

The launch of Russia’s lunar mission Luna 25 will most likely be pushed back to 2023 at the earliest because recent tests of its soft-landing device showed it failed to meet requirements, two sources in the space industry told TASS.

The Doppler speed and distance sensor made by the Vega Concern, part of the Rostech State Corporation, was tested in May and June and underperformed in terms of measurement precision, the sources said. The current precision would give 80% probability of a successful landing while the desired specifications call for a higher probability, which means either the device or the landing plan will have to be reworked.

The launch of this lunar lander has been delayed repeatedly, though the recently deposed head of Roscosmos, Dmitry Rogozin, had said as recently as late May that the September launch date was firm. It could very well be that with his removal the new head, Yuri Borisov, took another look and decided this new delay was necessary.

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NASA delays launch of its VIPER lunar rover to over concerns about commercial lander

8:58 am

VIPER's planned route on the Moon
VIPER’s planned route at the Moon’s south pole

In order to do more engineering tests of Astrobotic’s Griffin lunar lander, NASA has now delayed the launch of its VIPER lunar rover from November 2023 to November 2024.

NASA’s decision to pursue a 2024 delivery date results from the agency’s request to Astrobotic for additional ground testing of the company’s Griffin lunar lander, which will deliver VIPER to the lunar surface through CLPS. The additional tests aim to reduce the overall risk to VIPER’s delivery to the Moon. To complete the additional NASA-mandated tests of the Griffin lunar lander, an additional $67.8 million has been added to Astrobotic’s CLPS contract, which now totals $320.4 million.

Though the press release makes no mention of it, the launch of Astrobotic’s Griffin lander is partly dependent on the launch of Astrobotic’s first and smaller lunar lander, Peregrine, which was originally supposed to fly on the inaugural flight of ULA’s new Vulcan rocket, in 2021. That rocket’s first flight however has been delayed repeatedly because of delays by Blue Origin in completing development of the BE-4 rocket engine, to be used in Vulcan’s first stage. It is presently scheduled for early 2023, but that date remains tentative. This new delay of Griffin could be to make sure Peregrine flies first.

Regardless, this new budget increase means that the budget for Griffin has experienced a 62% cost overrun from its original $199 million number. This large increase in what is supposed to be a fixed price contract suggests that Astrobotic has been having some problems unstated by NASA, despite an inspector general report [pdf] that said all was going reasonably well.

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UAE earmarks $820 million for space-related projects

10:40 am

The new colonial movement: The government of the United Arab Emirates (UAE) announced yesterday that it has budgeted $820 million for its space program, with the first project to be a constellation of Earth observation satellites.

Its first project will be to build a constellation of advanced imaging satellites, to be named Sirb, an Arabic term for a flock of birds. They will be used for environmental and land usage monitoring, data collection, and analysis. “These small-scale satellites are more agile, faster to develop and more powerful – an indicator of the types of new generation systems that technology is now making possible,” Al Amari said, noting the satellite’s use of SAR (synthetic aperture radar) technology.

The goal is to launch the first satellite by 2025, with the constellation completed by 2028.

It is not stated how else this allocated money will be spent, since such a constellation of smallsats should not cost almost a billion dollars to build.

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Chinese university tests hypersonic space plane

10:30 am

fietian-1, Chinese spaceplane

According to social media reports, a Chinese university, Northwestern Polytechnical University (NPU), successfully tested on July 4, 2022 a prototype hypersonic prototype that uses both rocket and scramjet engines, as explained at this report:

What is particularly interesting about the launch of Feitian-1 is that it uses an RBCC [Rocket-Based Combined Cycle] engine to propel it to speeds in excess of Mach 5. An RBCC engine is a combination of an air-breathing ramjet, air-breathing scramjet, and ducted rocket. As the vehicle accelerates, the engine transfers from one mode to the next, allowing it to cope with air hitting the intake at greater and greater speed, and then becoming a pure rocket at top speed and very high altitudes.

The two images shown above are an attempt to get a sense of scale for this rocket. I think it is smaller than the Chinese wish us to believe, probably less than fifty feet tall, as stacked. Note the buildings in the right image. Other images showed no tower or strongback, also suggesting a small rocket. Moreover, all the released images hide the base of the rocket, suggesting there are attachments there the Chinese do not wish us to see, probably fuel and communications lines, all of which would help determine scale.

Finally, the upper stage, which I estimate to be no more than fifteen feet long, is purposely photographed from the side to hide its likely spaceplane appearance. This spaceplane look suggests this particular engineering research is at least superficially commercial and not military, connected more with the effort in China to develop hypersonic planes. That the Chinese government allowed this much information to be released also tells us that this particular prototype is not specifically military in nature.

This is not to say that the technology will not be adapted for military use. It certainly will be. NPU and its Institute of Spaceplanes and Hypersonic Technologies is also sanctioned by the U.S. government because of its ties to China’s military.

The US sanctions list frequently includes Northwestern Polytechnical University among the sanctioned entities from China. The University’s staff and students are not allowed to purchase or use commodities made in the US, including mathematical software.

Despite being a space plane test of the small prototype hypersonic rocket, this is the first reliable report from China that I have seen of such a suborbital test. Previous reports, despite being heavily touted by the U.S. military and accepted without question by the mainstream press, were unconfirmed and appeared untrustworthy. This report, showing proof of a suborbital test of what looks like a smaller scaled prototype I think gives us a more accurate picture of China’s present capabilities in this technology. They are moving fast, but are not there yet.

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SpaceX completes 31st launch in 2022, matching its entire output in 2021

12:17 pm

Capitalism in space: SpaceX today successfully launched 53 Starlink satellites with its Falcon 9 rocket, completing its 31st launch in 2022, matching the company’s entire output for all 2021 in only a little more than six months.

The first stage completed its 13th mission.

The leaders in the 2022 launch race:

31 Space
23 China
9 Russia
5 Rocket Lab
4 ULA

American private enterprise now leads China 44 to 23 in the national rankings, and the entire world combined 44 to 39.

SpaceX is targeting 60 launches in 2022. With the year just a little more than half over, it is setting a pace capable of achieving that goal.

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NASA and Roscosmos finalize barter deal for flying astronauts to ISS

9:35 am

As expected, mere hours after the firing of Dmitry Rogozin as head of Roscosmos, the Russians finally signed a barter deal with NASA for flying astronauts on each other’s spacecraft.

U.S. astronaut Frank Rubio will launch to the space station from Kazakhstan with two Russians in September. That same month, Russian cosmonaut, Anna Kikina, will join two Americans and one Japanese aboard a SpaceX rocket flying from Florida. Another crew swap will occur next spring.

No money will exchange hands under the agreement, according to NASA.

It appears that the firing of Rogozin by Putin signals larger strategic goals. Putin wants to defuse the tensions between the west and Russia, and this barter deal indicates Rogozin’s firing has achieved that aim, at least in space. Whether Roscosmos’s new head, Yuri Borisov, can regain Russia’s international commercial rocket customers is more questionable. Roscosmos under Rogozin proved to be a very unreliable partner. Regaining trust so that westerners will be willing to buy its services again could take decades.

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Layered mesa on Mars

12:57 pm

Layered mesa on Mars
Click for full image.

Cool image time! The photo to the right, cropped and reduced to post here, was taken on May 26, 2022 by the high resolution camera on Mars Reconnaissance Orbiter (MRO). It shows a mesa about three quarters of a mile in length that appears to be many-layered, from top to bottom.

The brightness of the mesa, compared to the surrounding plains, also emphasizes the different layers, though in this case it suggests two major epochs where the material being laid down in each was fundamentally different.

Or the difference could simply mean that the surrounding terrain is covered with dust, hiding its true color.

There is no question that winds in the thin Martian atmosphere have contributed to the erosion that formed this mesa, much like the buttes in the American southwest are shaped by winds. Whether water was a factor for this Martian butte is far less certain.

The overview map below provides context.
» Read more

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Saudi Arabia signs Artemis Accords

10:31 am

According to an announcement yesterday by NASA administrator Bill Nelson, Saudi Arabia has now become the twenty-first nation to sign the Artemis Accords, joining the growing American alliance to explore the solar system.

The full list of signatories so far: Australia, Bahrain, Brazil, Canada, Columbia, France, Israel, Italy, Japan, Luxembourg, Mexico, New Zealand, Poland, Romania, Saudi Arabia, Singapore, South Korea, the United Kingdom, the United Arab Emirates, the Ukraine, and the United States.

The accords were introduced by the Trump administration and are bi-lateral agreements between each nation and the United States. Their language is designed to protect property rights in space, and thus get around the limitations of the Outer Space Treaty. By signing up as many nations as possible, the accords are also creating this new American space alliance, which will be competing against the Chinese-Russian axis that opposes the accords.

Right now Germany and India remain the only major players in space who have not aligned themselves with either side. I expect Germany to eventually sign. India however appears to want to remain non-aligned.

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Virgin Galactic leases facility in Arizona to build up to six of its reusable suborbital space planes

9:13 am

Capitalism in space: Virgin Galactic announced on July 14, 2022 that it has leased a new facility in Mesa, Arizona where it will build up to six of its reusable suborbital space planes, with the goal of beginning commercial flights by late 2025.

The Delta class spaceship is Virgin Galactic’s production vehicle that is designed to fly weekly, supporting the Company’s target of 400 flights per year from Spaceport America. Based on current schedules, the first of these ships is expected to commence revenue-generating payload flights in late 2025, progressing to private astronaut flights in 2026.

The Company is currently selecting various suppliers to build the spaceship’s major subassemblies, which will be delivered to the new Mesa facility for final assembly. Virgin Galactic motherships will ferry completed spaceships to Spaceport America, New Mexico for flight test and commercial operation.

Combined with its recent contract award to Aurora to build two new motherships, it appears the management that replaced Richard Branson at Virgin Galactic has found that it can’t really proceed with commercial operations with the ships Branson left behind. Apparently the company is working to replace everything, and will likely delay commercial operations another few years in the process.

These decisions might be smart, but considering the company’s long history of endless delays, the buying public and the investment community might not be willing to tolerate more delays. It also remains very questionable there is enough business to justify its prediction of 400 flights per year, even if the company loses no customers.

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