January 20, 2026 Zimmerman/Space Show appearance

10:18 pm

David Livingston has now uploaded my appearance on the Space Show from yesterday, January 20, 2026.

You can download the audio of the program here.

To watch the Zoom broadcast go here.

Twas I think one of the best shows, especially because of the excellent questions and comments from the other participants. If you don’t know why NASA’s entire Artemis program is a mess, you need to watch or listen to this show.

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Genesis cover

On Christmas Eve 1968 three Americans became the first humans to visit another world. What they did to celebrate was unexpected and profound, and will be remembered throughout all human history. Genesis: the Story of Apollo 8, Robert Zimmerman's classic history of humanity's first journey to another world, tells that story, and it is now available as both an ebook and an audiobook, both with a foreword by Valerie Anders and a new introduction by Robert Zimmerman.

 

The print edition can be purchased at Amazon or any other book seller. If you want an autographed copy the price is $60 for the hardback and $45 for the paperback, plus $8 shipping for each. Go here for purchasing details. The ebook is available everywhere for $5.99 (before discount) at amazon, or direct from my ebook publisher, ebookit you don't support the big tech companies and the author gets a bigger cut much sooner.


The audiobook is also available at all these vendors, and is also free with a 30-day trial membership to Audible.
 

"Not simply about one mission, [Genesis] is also the history of America's quest for the moon... Zimmerman has done a masterful job of tying disparate events together into a solid account of one of America's greatest human triumphs."--San Antonio Express-News

Conscious Choice cover

Now available in hardback and paperback as well as ebook!

 

From the press release: In this ground-breaking new history of early America, historian Robert Zimmerman not only exposes the lie behind The New York Times 1619 Project that falsely claims slavery is central to the history of the United States, he also provides profound lessons about the nature of human societies, lessons important for Americans today as well as for all future settlers on Mars and elsewhere in space.

 
Conscious Choice: The origins of slavery in America and why it matters today and for our future in outer space, is a riveting page-turning story that documents how slavery slowly became pervasive in the southern British colonies of North America, colonies founded by a people and culture that not only did not allow slavery but in every way were hostile to the practice.  
Conscious Choice does more however. In telling the tragic history of the Virginia colony and the rise of slavery there, Zimmerman lays out the proper path for creating healthy societies in places like the Moon and Mars.

 

“Zimmerman’s ground-breaking history provides every future generation the basic framework for establishing new societies on other worlds. We would be wise to heed what he says.” —Robert Zubrin, founder of the Mars Society.

 

All editions are available at Amazon, Barnes & Noble, and all book vendors, with the ebook priced at $5.99 before discount. All editions can also be purchased direct from the ebook publisher, ebookit, in which case you don't support the big tech companies and the author gets a bigger cut much sooner.

 

Autographed printed copies are also available at discount directly from the author (hardback $29.95; paperback $14.95; Shipping cost for either: $6.00). Just send an email to zimmerman @ nasw dot org.

Communications resume with Mars

1:02 pm

First images back from Curiosity and Perseverance
Go here and here for the original images.

It appears the solar conjunction that has blocked all communications with the rovers and orbiters for the past three weeks around Mars has now fully ended, with the first new images appearing today from both Curiosity and Perseverance.

The two images to the right were downloaded today. The top image was taken on January 20, 2026 by Curiosity’s front hazard avoidance camera. It appears to be looking uphill in the direction the rover is soon to travel, climbing Mount Sharp. If you look closely you can see the mountain’s higher ranges on the horizon, just to the right of the rover itself.

The bottom picture was actually taken on January 15, 2026 by Perseverance, but was only downloaded today. Both science teams had programmed their rovers to take images throughout the conjunction, scheduled for download when communications resumed.

The picture was taken by Perseverance’s left high resolution camera located on top of the rover’s mast. It looks down at the ground near the rover at the pebbles and rocks that strewn the relatively smooth surface of the terrain west of Jezero crater.

Neither image is particularly ground-breaking. What is important however is that both images prove the rovers are functioning as expected. Expect a lot more data to arrive in the next few days, all gathered during three weeks of blackout.

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Haven-1 launch delayed until 2027

12:35 pm

Haven-1 with docked Dragon capsule
Artist rendering of Haven-1 with docked
Dragon capsule

According to Vast’s CEO, Max Haot, the launch of its single module Haven-1 space station has now been pushed back to the first quarter of ’27.

Last Saturday (January 10) we reached the key milestone of fully completing the primary structure, and some of the secondary structure; all of the acceptance testing occurred in November as well. Now we are starting clean room integration, which starts with TCS (thermal control system), propulsion, interior shells, and then moving on to avionics. And then final close out, which we expect will be done by the fall, and then we have on the books with NASA a full test campaign at the end of the year at Plum Brook. Then the launch in Q1 next year.

Until recently the company had been targeting a launch in the first half of 2026. This is a delay of almost a full year, and suggests the previous launch date has not been a serious target for quite some time.

Haot at the article at the link provides some new details about the manned missions to the station. It will launch unmanned, and after check-out in orbit that could last two weeks or longer, a professional SpaceX Dragon crew will fly a two-week mission there to do further check-outs.

After this up to three more two-week missions are planned, with Vast already having a deposit for the first. It also is willing to do more during Haven-1’s three year lifespan.

More and more it appears to me that in my rankings below of the five commercial space stations presently under development, the top three space stations are practically tied. And of the five stations, three are hoping to begin launching modules in the ’27-’28 time frame.
» Read more

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Leaving Earth cover

Leaving Earth: Space Stations, Rival Superpowers, and the Quest for Interplanetary Travel, can be purchased as an ebook everywhere for only $3.99 (before discount) at amazon, Barnes & Noble, all ebook vendors, or direct from my ebook publisher, ebookit.

 

If you buy it from ebookit you don't support the big oppressive tech companies and I get a bigger cut much sooner.

 

Winner of the 2003 Eugene M. Emme Award of the American Astronautical Society.

 
"Leaving Earth is one of the best and certainly the most comprehensive summary of our drive into space that I have ever read. It will be invaluable to future scholars because it will tell them how the next chapter of human history opened." -- Arthur C. Clarke

January 21, 2026 Quick space links

9:20 am

Courtesy of BtB’s stringer Jay. This post is also an open thread. I welcome my readers to post any comments or additional links relating to any space issues, even if unrelated to the links below.

I am posting this early because I am busy this morning dealing with a scheduled family medical procedure. Nothing critical, but I will be out of the office for a good portion of the day. I plan to catch up in the afternoon.

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French startup The Exploration Company negotiating purchase of UK rocket startup Orbex

8:39 am

Prime rocket prototype on launchpad
The prototype of Orbex’s never-launched Prime rocket,
on the launchpad in 2022

In what appears to be a direct consequence of British red tape blocking Orbex from launching in the past four years, it is now in negotiations to sell its assets to the French startup The Exploration Company.

On 21 January, Orbex published a brief press release stating that a letter of intent had been signed and that negotiations had begun. The company added that all details about the transaction remain confidential at this stage. A statement from Orbex CEO Phil Chambers suggests that the company’s financial position factored into its decision to pursue a buyer. “Our Series D fundraising could have led us in many directions,” said Chambers. “We believe this opportunity plays to the strengths of both businesses, and we look forward to sharing more when the time is right.”

Let me translate: In 2022 Orbex had set up a factory close to the proposed Sutherland spaceport on the north coast of Scotland, had signed a 50 year lease with that facility to launch its Prime rocket there, had built a launch platform and tested a prototype of the rocket, and was poised to do its first launch. All it needed was license approvals from the United Kingdom’s Civil Aviation Authority (CAA).

And then it waited, and waited, and waited, and waited. By 2024 it gave up on Sutherland, because the authorities (local and national) kept rejecting its spaceport license for environmental and political reasons. It switched its launch site to the SaxaVord spaceport on the Shetland Islands, pushing back that first launch to 2026. Along the way the UK gave it a $25 million grant, likely to keep the company above water because the UK was blocking its ability to launch.

All for naught. It is very clear Orbex has run out of cash waiting, and is now looking to salvage its work by selling everything to the French company, which so far has focused on building a cargo capsule to supply the upcoming commercial space stations.

If the sale goes through, do not be surprised if Orbex’s assets exit the UK entirely. And at that point, the CAA’s red tape can be given credit for destroying a second rocket company, following Virgin Orbit.

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JAXA releases preliminary results of investigation into December 2025 H3 rocket launch failure

8:01 am

Japan's space agency JAXA

JAXA yesterday released the preliminary results of its investigation into upper stage failure during the December 2025 launch of its H3 rocket.

Previously the agency had indicated it believed the cause was linked to the separation of the rocket’s payload fairings. This new report changes that conclusion:

After liftoff, the No. 8 H3 rocket sustained damage to the section where the Michibiki No. 5 positioning satellite was mounted, when the satellite cover, called fairing, was separated.

In addition, the fuel tubing of the rocket’s second-stage engine was damaged, presumably causing combustion to stop earlier than planned, JAXA said in a progress report on its investigation into the failure at a meeting of a subgroup of a science ministry panel.

As the section was damaged, the satellite was no longer attached to the second stage of the rocket. The satellite fell off when the first stage separated.

In other words, as the fairings released, the satellite apparently deployed, damaging the fuel feed to the upper stage engine. It is as yet unclear whether the deployment system worked as intended, but did so prematurely, or if it failed entirely, allowing the satellite to fall away once the fairings separated.

At the moment Japan has no launch capability. Both of JAXA’s rockets, the H3 and the Epsilon-S are grounded due to launch failures. Meanwhile, the country has only recently begun to develop private launch companies, none of which are ready to launch.

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January 20, 2026 Quick space links

2:30 pm

Courtesy of BtB’s stringer Jay. This post is also an open thread. I welcome my readers to post any comments or additional links relating to any space issues, even if unrelated to the links below.

  • NOAA predicts a major geomagnetic storm to reach Earth January 20, 2026
    While much of the press will scream like Chicken Little, the NOAA prediction notes that the heaviest impact will be above 60 degrees latitude, and that it will have a “minor impact” on satellites and cause “weak fluctuations” in the power grid. In other words, we are not gonna die, though we might see some cool auroras.
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I will be on the Space Show with David Livingston tonight

10:00 am

I will be appearing with David Livingston on the Space Show tonight at 7 pm (Pacific). This will be a Zoom presentation, so if you wish to participate or ask questions, this is the announcement David sent out today:

You can listen and participate with us in our program tonight with Bob Zimmerman by using one of the following two Zoom phone numbers. Bob will be talking about his recent Op-Ed on Artemis and safety plus numerous other timely and important space topics.

One tap mobile
+1-253-200468,,81561774534# US
+1-253-21-8782,,81561774534# US (Tacoma)

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Computer simulations suggest Jupiter and Saturn have fundamentally different interiors

9:57 am

The different polar vortexes of Jupiter and Saturn

The uncertainty of science: In attempting to explain why the polar vortexes of Jupiter and Saturn are so different, scientists running large computer simulations have found that the difference could be because Jupiter’s interior is “softer” than Saturn’s.

The two images to the right illustrate the different polar vortexes of both planets. Jupiter’s (top) is made up of multiple chaotic small storms that form a hexagon-like ring around the pole. Saturn’s (bottom) is a single very coherent hexagon-shaped storm.

Over multiple different simulations, they observed that some scenarios evolved to form a single large polar vortex, like Saturn, whereas others formed multiple smaller vortices, like Jupiter. After analyzing the combinations of parameters and variables in each scenario and how they related to the final outcome, they landed on a single mechanism to explain whether a single or multiple vortices evolve: As random fluid motions start to coalesce into individual vortices, the size to which a vortex can grow is limited by how soft the bottom of the vortex is. The softer, or lighter the gas is that is rotating at the bottom of a vortex, the smaller the vortex is in the end, allowing for multiple smaller-scale vortices to coexist at a planet’s pole, similar to those on Jupiter.

Conversely, the harder or denser a vortex bottom is, the larger the system can grow, to a size where eventually it can follow the planet’s curvature as a single, planetary-scale vortex, like the one on Saturn.

If this mechanism is indeed what is at play on both gas giants, it would suggest that Jupiter could be made of softer, lighter material, while Saturn may harbor heavier stuff in its interior.

This conclusion however runs completely counter to what we should expect. Jupiter has a much great mass, and one would assume from this that its interior would therefore be denser and thus harder.

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Australian rocket startup Gilmour Space raises $145 million in investment capital

9:28 am

Eris rocket launch and failure
Gilmour’s Eris rocket falling sideways from launchpad
(indicated by red dot) in July 2025. Click for much better
video.

The Australian rocket startup Gilmour Space, whose one orbital test launch in 2025 failed, has now raised an additional A$217 million ($145 million American) in investment capital, in addition to the A$142 million it had previously raised.

The Series E round was jointly led by the National Reconstruction Fund Corporation (NRFC) and Hostplus, with participation from Future Fund, Blackbird, Funds SA, HESTA, NGS Super, Main Sequence, QIC, and Brighter Super.

…Proceeds from the raise will be used to support continued development and qualification of its Eris orbital launch vehicle, scale rocket and satellite manufacturing, expand test and launch infrastructure, and grow the company’s workforce to meet global demand for space launch services.

The National Reconstruction Fund Corporation is a government agency with a A$15 billion budget tasked to help finance new industries. It contributed A$75 million in this fund raising round.

The other major contributor was Hostplus, which matched that contribution.

Though the company has said it will attempt a second orbital test launch in 2026, no dates have been announced.

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Update on NASA’s damaged Goldstone antenna

8:25 am

According to a scientists at JPL, the Goldstone antenna — one third of NASA’s Deep Space Network (DSN) that scientists and NASA use to communicate with any interplanetary mission — will not resume operations until May of 2026.

The antenna has been out of service since September 2025 when it was damaged badly by workers who rotated the antenna past its correct limits, causing damage to piping and cables.

DSS-14 is officially scheduled to resume operations May 1, Benner said. “Unofficially, this might change. We’re hearing a variety of things,” he added, without specifying whether the return could be earlier or later. He noted that DSS-14 had already been scheduled to go offline in August 2026 for extended maintenance expected to last until October 2028, replacing equipment that in some cases is 40 to 50 years old.

In other words, this outage essentially took the antenna out of service a year early.

The outage can be covered by NASA’s other two DSN antennas in Spain and Australia, but it also limits the whole network’s capabilities. When Artemis-2 launches in the next month or so this limitation will significantly reduce communications with NASA’s other planetary missions at Mars and elsewhere during that mission’s 10-day flight around the Moon.

We still do not know the cause of the over-rotation, which at present does appear to have been the result of human carelessness. And NASA’s lack of transparency in this matter reinforces that speculation.

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New spaceport proposed in India independent of its space agency ISRO

8:02 am

The existing and proposed spaceports in India
The existing and proposed spaceports in India

According to the chief minister of the Andhra Pradesh province of India, his government is presently in discussions with the private Indian energy company Greenko Group about establishing a partnership to build a commercial spaceport at Hope Island off the coast near the city of Kakinada.

Addressing the gathering of foreign investors in renewable energies and officials of the State government after performing ‘bhumi puja’ [ground-breaking] for the Green Hydrogen and Green Ammonia Production Complex in Kakinada, Mr. Naidu said, “Soon, we (Andhra Pradesh) will launch satellites from the Hope Island. It will come soon, and Kakinada will have a lot of advantages in the field of technology and innovation.”

“The Greenko Group is evincing interest in being a part of the State government’s Space City project that includes developing satellite launching facility. In a recent interaction, Greenko Founder and Group CEO Anil Kumar Chalamalsetty has shown interest in the Space City project on the Hope Island,” said Mr. Naidu.

The location has advantages over the Sriharikota spaceport, run by India’s space agency ISRO, which on polar orbital launches needs to use extra fuel to avoid flying over Sri Lanka to the south. This issue is one of the reasons ISRO is presently building that second spaceport to the south for its SSLV rocket.

If privately run, this new spaceport will have other advantages. It will possibly attract some of India’s new rocket startups, who will avoid some of the bureaucracy that accompanies any dealings with ISRO. ISRO launches always involve a gigantic number of government personnel, a cost these startups can’t afford. This new Hope Island spaceport might avoid these costs with low overhead and efficient operations.

Nothing is firm yet. From the statement above, it appears the negotiation is in a very preliminary stage, and might never bear fruit.

Hat tip BtB’s stringer Jay.

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Another Zimmerman op-ed today at PJ Media

9:17 pm

Our mindless propaganda press
Our mindless propaganda press

PJ Media tonight posted another op-ed by yours truly:

Artemis II Ready for Dress Rehearsal: Propaganda Press Misses the Real Story of This Dangerous Mission

My readers know I strongly oppose flying this mission manned because of questions about Orion’s heat shield and its untested life support system. In this op-ed however my purpose was not to argue this point again. Instead, I wanted to take our bankrupt media to task for their utter failure to report these facts.

When NASA this past week rolled SLS/Orion to the launchpad, I was appalled by the coverage. In reviewing every article I could find about that rollout, it seemed I was “reading the state-run presses of China and the Soviet Union”, not a free independent press charged with covering the news.

The write-up of every one of these so-called news outlets is cloying and worshipful. The worst examples are those that focus on the ridiculous quote by one astronaut, “We are very likely going to see things that no human eye has ever seen.” This may be true (four humans will see the Moon from a new perspective), but it is hyperbole of the worst sort. Not only have humans circled the Moon before, but unmanned orbiters have also mapped the entire globe at a resolution far better than anything that will be visible to the Artemis-II crew.

Furthermore, these media reports repeat without any questioning NASA’s very false claim that it has done everything possible to make sure this flight is safe.

Only one article out of almost 20 news outlets mentioned Orion’s questionable heat shield, and that article made it seem as if NASA had fixed the problem. None of the articles even mentioned the fact that Orion’s life support system will be flying in space for the very first time, essentially using four human beings as guinea pigs.

Instead, every article was a propaganda piece extolling mindlessly the wonders of NASA and this mission, making believe all was perfect and well planned.

This is bad journalism of the worst sort. If you are going to report on this mission, good journalism requires you to at least note these issues. In fact, good journalism demands it, because it actually makes for a much better story: NASA is sending four astronauts around the Moon in a capsule with questionable engineering!

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January 19, 2026 Quick space links

2:55 pm

Courtesy of BtB’s stringer Jay. This post is also an open thread. I welcome my readers to post any comments or additional links relating to any space issues, even if unrelated to the links below.

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“A new empire has sprung into existence, and there is a new thing under the sun.”

12:52 pm

The words I quote in the headline above were spoken during a sermon by Pastor Manasseh Cutler on August 24, 1788 at the just established settlement of Marietta, Ohio, founded only six months previously by a small group of New England pioneers, with the goal of beginning the settlement of the American west now available following the end of the war of independence against Great Britain.

The Pioneers by David McCullough

It may be emphatically said that a new empire has sprung into existence, and there is a new thing under the sun. By the Constitution now established in the United States, religious as well as civil liberty is secured.

Some serious Christians may possibly tremble for the Ark, and think the Christian religion in danger when divested of the patronage of civil power. They may fear inroads from licentiousness and infidelity, on the one hand, and from sectaries and party divisions on the other.

But we can dismiss our fears, when we consider the truth can never be a real hazard, where there is a sufficiency of light and knowledge, and full liberty to vindicate it.

Cutler’s words come from David McCullough’s 2019 history, The Pioneers, describing the effort of Cutler and a small group of New Englanders to re-create a new New England in the wilderness north of the Ohio river.

Not surprisingly, McCullough’s book is quite readable, as are all his works. What made it a revelation to me is that it revealed an aspect of this early American settlement of the west that I had been ignorant of. It wasn’t just any old Americans moving west to found new communities. At the beginning it was specifically the descendants of the Pilgrims and Puritans in New England, actually organizing consciously to repeat the same thing as their ancestors, sending a group of God-fearing religious families west to build a new city on a hill, for the future of America and for their children.

Cutler himself had been crucial in lobbying Congress to establish the laws necessary to allow these first first settlers to buy land and begin settlement. He and a group of former revolutionary soldiers from New England had worked up a plan, and sent Cutler to New York and Philadelphia to convince Congress to pass the Northwest Ordinance of 1787, establishing the legal framework for settling the vast territories now open to American north and west of the Ohio river. Cutler himself wrote much of that bill, making sure it included articles requiring freedom of religion and no slavery.

In the early spring of 1788 the first group of twenty-two settlers arrived, and within a very short time they had established a town and community. By the time Cutler arrived in the late summer, the colony was so well established that families were arriving to build their own farms.
» Read more

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A 10-mile-long avalanche on Mars

11:32 am

Overview map

A ten mile long avalanche on Mars
Click for original image.

Cool image time! The picture to the right, cropped, reduced, and sharpened to post here, was taken on November 8, 2025 by the high resolution camera on Mars Reconnaissance Orbiter (MRO). It shows only three miles of a ten-mile-long avalanche inside the solar system’s largest canyon, Valles Marineris.

The white dot on the overview map above marks the location. In the inset the white rectangle indicates the area covered by the picture to the right. I have indicated the avalanche’s full extent beyond this.

Overall, the landslide fell about one mile along those ten miles. That there are about a dozen small craters on top of the slide tells us this happened quite a long time ago.

As always, the scale of Valles Marineris boggles the mind. Though this avalanche fell about 5,000 feet (the same depth of the south rim of the Grand Canyon), that drop only covered one fifth of Valles Marineris’s depth. At this point, from the rim to the floor the elevation difference is about 23,000 feet, which would place the rim among the 100 highest mountains on Earth. And of course, this is only one small spot in this gigantic canyon that runs 2,500 miles east-to-west, with its depth about the same that entire length.

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Japanese rocket startup Interstellar raises another $129.7 million in private investment capital

9:11 am

The Japanese rocket startup Interstellar announced late last week that it has successfully raised another $129.7 million in private investment capital, bringing its total available cash to $287.7 million.

Interstellar’s Series F round represents one of the largest fundraising to date by a privately held space startup in Japan2, bringing Interstellar’s cumulative funding to 44.6 billion JPY (287.7 million USD). The round, led by Woven by Toyota, raised 14.8 billion JPY (95.5 million USD) through a third-party allotment of preferred shares in an up-round.

In addition, the company secured 5.3 billion JPY (34.2 million USD) in debt financing from financial institutions, including 1.8 billion JPY (11.6 million USD) in loan facilities with stock acquisition rights provided by the Japan Finance Corporation. Alongside the fundraising, secondary transactions with existing shareholders were also conducted to optimize the company’s capital structure. Nomura Securities provided advisory support in this series, including the introduction of several potential investors, some of which resulted in fundraising.

Interstellar was one of the earliest rocket startups, first attempting a suborbital launch in 2018. After that launch failed it then disappeared for almost five years to suddenly reappear last year with major funding from Toyota and other sources.

It had previously hoped to complete the first launch of its Zero orbital rocket in 2025. At the moment however the company has set no new launch date, though it has announced that it has seven customer payloads for that launch.

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China launches more satellites in its Guowang satellite constellation

8:57 am

China today successfully placed the 19th group of Guowang (SatNet) satellites into orbit, its Long March 12 rocket lifting off from its coastal Wencheng spaceport.

The lower stages of the rocket fell in the territorial waters of the Philippines, forcing that government to issue a warning to its citizens.

Previously I had read reports claiming Guowang was an internet-of-things constellation aiming to 13,000 satellites eventually. That was incorrect. This constellation is comparable to Starlink, providing internet access globally. Before today’s launch there were 137 Guowang satellites in orbit. China’s state-run press provided no information about the number of Guowang satellites launched today. All previous launches using the Long March 12 placed nine in orbit, which would bring the total in orbit to 146. According to the article at the link, however, the constellation now has 150 in orbit.

The 2026 launch race:

8 SpaceX
5 China

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Startup focused on mining helium-3 on the Moon teams up with JPL for private rover mission

8:45 am

Artist rendering of Black Moon's Fusion-1 rover
Artist rendering of Black Moon’s Fusion-1 rover

The helium-3 lunar mining startup Black Moon Energy (BMEC) has now signed a partnership deal with JPL to build and send a private rover to the Moon, dubbed Fusion-1, to search for helium-3.

BMEC will lead mission management, resource-assessment strategy, and large-scale operations planning. As global leaders in robotic space exploration, the Jet Propulsion Laboratory (JPL) and Caltech, which manages JPL, have been engaged to oversee the mission’s robotic systems, scientific instrumentation, data acquisition, and mission operations.

…BMEC’s initial year-long lunar expedition will provide the first decision-quality dataset for Helium-3 production operations. Information from the mission will support potential applications in fusion power generation, national security systems, quantum computing, radiation detection, medical imaging, and cryogenic technologies. Insights from the mission will guide BMEC’s long-term strategy for establishing a sustainable cost-effective Helium-3 supply chain from the lunar surface.

A review of Black Moon’s website as well as a search on the web reveals no information about the company’s available capital, so this proposed private mission could be real, or it could be pie-in-the-sky.

Its existence at all however proves the impact that lower launch costs is having. Proposing a private mission such as this before SpaceX would have been met with outright laughter. Now it draws serious interest. It is wholly conceivable to build a low-cost small robotic rover and find affordable launch providers and lunar lander companies that can get it to the Moon.

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Japan’s government gives Ispace a $125 million contract to build a high-precision lunar lander

8:30 am

Is this the first sign that Japan's space agency JAXA is becoming irrelevant?
Is Japan’s failed space agency JAXA finally
starting to become irrelevant?

The Japanese lunar lander startup Ispace last week announced it has won a $125 million contract to build a high-precision lunar lander targeting a 2029 launch in the Moon’s “polar regions”.

Ispace, inc, a global lunar exploration company, announced that the company was selected to implement its proposal for “High Precision Landing Technology in the Lunar Polar Regions” project under the second phase of Japan’s Space Strategy Fund. The technology will be implemented in ispace’s Mission 6, with development now underway.

The funding amount is subject to change based on stage gate reviews and other factors, so full receipt is not guaranteed at this time.

The mission will also include a lunar orbiter that will act as a relay communication satellite that will also remain in orbit after the mission to provide communications for future missions, not only for polar missions but for missions to the Moon’s far side.

Ispace plans to use some of the technology it is developing for its 2nd generation lunar lander, scheduled to fly in ’28.

This contract is significant because it appears to leave ownership of the project entirely in Ispace’s hands, with Japan’s space agency JAXA having little design or management control. It also appears to use the funds from country’s ten-year $6.6 billion fund as intended. That fund was established in 2023 to support new space startups under the capitalism model, whereby the companies provide the product and government and JAXA are merely the customer.

Up until now it appeared this fund was accomplishing little. In fact, there have been indications that JAXA was trying to repurpose the fund for its own benefit, using it to hire a lot more staff while maintaining control and ownership of any project, rather than let the private sector own its own work.

Since JAXA has increasingly done a very bad job promoting Japan’s space exploration industry, those indications were a very bad sign for Japan’s future in space.

This deal appears however to use that strategic fund properly, even if JAXA might still be skimming a large percentage of the fund off the top. This is not unlike what NASA has been doing. Bureaucrats must be bureaucrats, and all government agencies must be eternal and immortal, no matter what.

Like NASA, however, the success of Ispace and rest of Japan’s private space sector from projects financed by this fund will eventually allow that private sector to make those bureaucrats and JAXA irrelevant. It is happening now in the U.S. It now appears there is a chance it will happen in Japan as well.

Hat tip to BtB’s stringer Jay.

15 comments

China’s damaged Shenzhou-20 manned capsule successfully returned unmanned today

8:01 am

Shenzhou-20 after return
Click for original image.

China today finally brought its damaged Shenzhou-20 manned capsule back to Earth, having it touch down in China’s Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region.

All the text sources from China’s state-run press showed images like the one to the right, from a distance. Though one of the descent capsule’s windows is visible, and appears to have attracted a lot of attention from members of the recovery crew, it is impossible to see if this is the window that China says was hit by some space debris and damaged. Nor can we see the cracks China claimed were there that forced it to send up a rescue capsule to bring the crew back and return this capsule unoccupied.

BtB’s stringer Jay found two other tweets that China released on X. One focused entirely on the used spacesuit that was returned within the capsule, ignoring the capsule itself. The other showed just one image, showing a side of the capsule with no windows.

Why China has been so reluctant to release any images of the damaged window forces one to suspect they are hiding something, such as the cracks were not caused by an impact but by some issue with the capsule itself. This speculation could of course be completely wrong, but China’s secrecy is what generates it.

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SpaceX yesterday completed one launch while China had two launch failures

8:20 am

There were three launches attempts yesterday, though the two by China were both failures.

First, China’s Long March 3B rocket attempted a launch from its Xichang spaceport in southwest China but the rocket failed at some point. All that China’s state-run press said was that “an anomaly occurred during its flight” and “the cause of the failure is under investigation.” We therefore do not know when the failure occurred, or where any of the rocket stages crashed, inside China or elsewhere.

Next, China’s pseudo-company Galactic Energy attempted the first launch of its new Ceres-2 rocket, lifting off from the Jiuquan spaceport in northwest China. Once again, China’s state-run press provided little information, stating merely that “an anomaly occurred during its flight.”

The Ceres-2, like its predecessor the Ceres-1, is a solid-fueled rocket, though its final stage upgrades the rocket with liquid fuel. Both are based on missile technology, which is why this pseudo-company is “pseudo,” as everything it does is closely supervised by the Chinese government.

Finally, SpaceX placed a National Reconnaissance Office classified satellite into orbit, its Falcon 9 rocket lifting off from Vandenberg in California. The first stage completed its 2nd flight, landing back at Vandenberg. The two fairings in turn completed their 13th and 30th flights respectively.

The 2026 launch race:

7 SpaceX
4 China

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