The November fund-raising campaign for Behind the Black

8:13 pm

Scroll down for the most recent posts.

It is unfortunately time for another November fund-raising campaign to support my work here at Behind the Black. I really dislike doing these, but 2025 is so far turning out to be a very poor year for donations and subscriptions, the worst since 2020. I very much need your support for this webpage to survive.

And I think I provide real value. Fifteen years ago I said NASA’s SLS rocket was garbage and should be cancelled. Almost a decade ago I said its Orion capsule was a lie and a bad idea. As early as 1998, long before almost anyone else, I predicted in my first book, Genesis: The Story of Apollo 8, that private enterprise and freedom would conquer the solar system, not government. Very early in the COVID panic and continuing throughout I noted that every policy put forth by the government (masks, social distancing, lockdowns, jab mandates) was wrong, misguided, and did more harm than good. In planetary science, while everyone else in the media still thinks Mars has no water, I have been reporting the real results from the orbiters now for more than five years, that Mars is in fact a planet largely covered with ice.

I could continue with numerous other examples. If you want to know what others will discover a decade hence, read what I write here at Behind the Black. And if you read my most recent book, Conscious Choice, you will find out what is going to happen in space in the next century.

This last claim might sound like hubris on my part, but I base it on my overall track record.

So please consider donating or subscribing to Behind the Black, either by giving a one-time contribution or a regular subscription. I could really use the support at this time. There are five ways of doing so:

1. Zelle: This is the only internet method that charges no fees. All you have to do is use the Zelle link at your internet bank and give my name and email address (zimmerman at nasw dot org). What you donate is what I get.

2. Patreon: Go to my website there and pick one of five monthly subscription amounts, or by making a one-time donation. Takes about a 10% cut.

3. A Paypal Donation or subscription, which takes about a 15% cut:

4. Donate by check, payable to Robert Zimmerman. What you give is what I get. Mail checks to:

Behind The Black
c/o Robert Zimmerman
P.O.Box 1262
Cortaro, AZ 85652

5. Finally, you can also support me by buying one of my books, as noted in the boxes interspersed throughout the webpage or shown in the menu above.

This post will remain at the top of the page until the end of the month.

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Vast signs preliminary astronaut deal with the Maldives

8:01 am

Haven-1 with docked Dragon capsule
Artist rendering of Haven-1 with docked
Dragon capsule

Continuing a string of international agreements during the past few weeks, the space station startup Vast yesterday announced it has signed what appears to be a preliminary deal with the Maldives to fly astronauts to its proposed Haven-1 space station.

The agreement outlines that Vast and the MSRO [Maldives Space Research Organisation] will commit to exploring ways to engage the Republic of Maldives space sector. Through the partnership, the organizations will pursue astronaut flight opportunities aboard Vast space stations for agency astronauts, such as Haven-1, the world’s first commercial space station or Vast-provided private astronaut missions to the International Space Station. Both organizations will also collaborate on the development of educational programs and outreach activities, including projects conducted by MSRO astronauts onboard the ISS or Haven-1. These programs are aimed at specifically engaging schools, universities, and other educational institutions in the Republic of Maldives. [emphasis mine]

Vast has similar agreements with Uzbeckistan, Colombia, and the Czech Republic, as well as the European Space Agency. In every case, the agreement hints at Vast providing a space station visit for each country’s or organization’s astronauts, but no firm commitments. I now suspect that these are all preliminary agreements, pending the successful launch of Haven-1 in the first half of next year. Vast plans to keep Haven-1 in orbit for three years, during which it wants to fly four 30-day manned missions, using a Dragon capsule as the ferryboat.

At the moment the company has not announced any passengers or crews for those manned missions. Once Haven-1 is in orbit and operating, however, we should expect astronaut flights to be announced from one or more of these countries.

In a sense, Vast is doing the same thing that Axiom did with India, Poland, and Hungary, signing up each to fly astronauts to ISS. Both space station startups are simply hunting for passengers. And both know that every single third world nation in the world wants to fly its own astronauts in space. Vast, like Axiom before it, is now offering them a cheap way to do it.

Hat tip to BtB’s stringer Jay.

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Genesis cover

On Christmas Eve 1968 three Americans became the first humans to visit another world. What they did to celebrate was unexpected and profound, and will be remembered throughout all human history. Genesis: the Story of Apollo 8, Robert Zimmerman's classic history of humanity's first journey to another world, tells that story, and it is now available as both an ebook and an audiobook, both with a foreword by Valerie Anders and a new introduction by Robert Zimmerman.

 

The print edition can be purchased at Amazon or any other book seller. If you want an autographed copy the price is $60 for the hardback and $45 for the paperback, plus $8 shipping for each. Go here for purchasing details. The ebook is available everywhere for $5.99 (before discount) at amazon, or direct from my ebook publisher, ebookit you don't support the big tech companies and the author gets a bigger cut much sooner.


The audiobook is also available at all these vendors, and is also free with a 30-day trial membership to Audible.
 

"Not simply about one mission, [Genesis] is also the history of America's quest for the moon... Zimmerman has done a masterful job of tying disparate events together into a solid account of one of America's greatest human triumphs."--San Antonio Express-News

November 25, 2025 Quick space links

3:02 pm

Courtesy of BtB’s stringer Jay. This post is also an open thread. I welcome my readers to post any comments or additional links relating to any space issues, even if unrelated to the links below.

  • Scientists release final data from the Atacama Cosmology Telescope project
    The data, collected over almost two decades, confirm the conflict in the predicted number for the Hubble constant (the universe’s expansion rate), where two different methods of observations have produced two reliable but different numbers. At present no theory successfully explains the conflict.
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Conscious Choice cover

Now available in hardback and paperback as well as ebook!

 

From the press release: In this ground-breaking new history of early America, historian Robert Zimmerman not only exposes the lie behind The New York Times 1619 Project that falsely claims slavery is central to the history of the United States, he also provides profound lessons about the nature of human societies, lessons important for Americans today as well as for all future settlers on Mars and elsewhere in space.

 
Conscious Choice: The origins of slavery in America and why it matters today and for our future in outer space, is a riveting page-turning story that documents how slavery slowly became pervasive in the southern British colonies of North America, colonies founded by a people and culture that not only did not allow slavery but in every way were hostile to the practice.  
Conscious Choice does more however. In telling the tragic history of the Virginia colony and the rise of slavery there, Zimmerman lays out the proper path for creating healthy societies in places like the Moon and Mars.

 

“Zimmerman’s ground-breaking history provides every future generation the basic framework for establishing new societies on other worlds. We would be wise to heed what he says.” —Robert Zubrin, founder of the Mars Society.

 

All editions are available at Amazon, Barnes & Noble, and all book vendors, with the ebook priced at $5.99 before discount. All editions can also be purchased direct from the ebook publisher, ebookit, in which case you don't support the big tech companies and the author gets a bigger cut much sooner.

 

Autographed printed copies are also available at discount directly from the author (hardback $29.95; paperback $14.95; Shipping cost for either: $6.00). Just send an email to zimmerman @ nasw dot org.

Predicting dust storms in the Starship candidate landing zone on Mars

1:30 pm

View of dust storm one
Click for original figure.

Scientists using the UAE’s Al-Amal Mars orbiter were able to track two near-identical dust storms that occurred in the northern lowland plains of Mars and near the candidate landing zone for SpaceX’s Starship spacecraft.

The image to the right comes from figure 2 of the paper, and was taken by Al-Amal approximately 25,000 miles above the red planet’s surface. By comparing the growth and evolution of both storms, the scientists now think they have a method for predicting when such storms occur in this region. From their abstract:

Our observational case study constrains scenarios presented by Ogohara (2025). We show the first scenario, summarized in Section 5 of Ogohara (2025), [explains] dust storms 1 and 2. This scenario is as follows. Dust storms form in the later morning hours through combined effects of the warm sector of a low-pressure system and daytime phenomena. The low-pressure system is associated with wavenumber 3 baroclinic waves.

There is no doubt that dust storms 1 and 2 start to form and develop in the late morning hours, in or near the warm sector of a low-pressure system. Also, combined effects of this low-pressure system and daytime convection are possible. This is supported by evidence for daytime convection, such as the dust devil number in MY 28 and planetary boundary layer height estimates from the Mars Climate Database.

In other words, future SpaceX colonists should be prepared for late morning dust storms when a low-pressure system moves in.

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The smooth and extremely calm methane lakes of Titan

12:17 pm

The Cassini radar track on Titan
Click for full image.

Using archival radar data obtained by the Saturn orbiter Cassini from one of its many fly-bys of the moon Titan, scientists now believe that most of the high northern latitude lakes on Titan are mostly made of pure methane, not ethane, and that their surface is remarkably calm and smooth. From the abstract:

During its 119th flyby of the moon, the Cassini spacecraft conducted a bistatic radar experiment observing a group of seven lakes in Titan’s Northern Lake District located between (72°N, 143°W) and (77°N, 131°W). The orbiter transmitted a continuous-wave signal at a wavelength of 3.56 cm (X-band) toward Titan’s surface, targeting the moving specular reflection point between the spacecraft and Earth. As the antenna footprint intercepted the liquid surfaces of the lakes, distinct specular reflections were detected on Earth by the 70-m antenna at NASA’s Canberra Deep Space Network complex. Analysis of these reflections shows that all seven lakes exhibit similar dielectric properties—linked to their composition—and surface roughness, suggesting they are methane-dominated and may have a few millimeters of surface roughness. [emphasis mine]

The highlighted phrase underscores what previous data had shown, that the methane lakes of Titan are remarkably calm, almost to the point of absurdity.

The image to the right, figure 1 of the paper, shows the track of this radar observation. Based on this data as well as data obtained during a later fly-by of another nearby lake, the scientists posit that all the lakes in this region are likely similar, mostly filled with methane having a surface with barely no ripples at all.

This information is crucial for the planned Dragonfly mission, that will fly over and onto Titan’s methane lakes, though not in the high latitudes but in its equatorial regions. Knowing the conditions as best as possible will increase the odds that this very risky mission will succeed.

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Leaving Earth cover

Leaving Earth: Space Stations, Rival Superpowers, and the Quest for Interplanetary Travel, can be purchased as an ebook everywhere for only $3.99 (before discount) at amazon, Barnes & Noble, all ebook vendors, or direct from my ebook publisher, ebookit.

 

If you buy it from ebookit you don't support the big oppressive tech companies and I get a bigger cut much sooner.

 

Winner of the 2003 Eugene M. Emme Award of the American Astronautical Society.

 
"Leaving Earth is one of the best and certainly the most comprehensive summary of our drive into space that I have ever read. It will be invaluable to future scholars because it will tell them how the next chapter of human history opened." -- Arthur C. Clarke

New radar data shows no evidence of liquid water under Mars’ south pole ice cap

11:51 am

New data using the Sharad radar instrument on Mars Reconnaissance Orbiter (MRO) appears to disprove the 2018 observations that suggested a lake of liquid water might exist under the Martian south pole ice cap.

From the abstract:

Due to a novel spacecraft maneuver, SHARAD has now obtained a basal return associated with the putative body of water. Modeling of the radar response is not consistent with the liquid water explanation, instead suggesting a localized, low roughness region of dry rock/dust beneath the ice could explain the SHARAD response. Reconciling the divergent responses of SHARAD and MARSIS remains essential to determine the nature of this anomalous south polar region.

In other words, this reflectively bright area is caused not by liquid water, but by a very smooth patch in the south pole’s many underlying layers. What remains unknown is the cause of that smoothness. The scientists posit that “a crater floor with sediment or impact melt fill” could be the cause. Another study in 2022 suggested it could be volcanic rock, while a 2021 study claimed clay could be the cause.

At the moment no one has the ability to find out. The only certain way would be to drill deep cores, but that won’t happen until there is a thriving colony on Mars.

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Russia launches classified military satellites

10:12 am

Russia today successfully launched a set of classified military satellites, its Angara-1.2 rocket lifting off from its Plesetsk spaceport in northeast Russia.

Russia’s state-run press provided no further information, not even confirming the number of satellites launched. The rocket’s path was north over the Arctic, to put the satellites in a polar orbit.

The leaders in the 2025 launch race:

154 SpaceX
73 China (a new record)
15 Rocket Lab
14 Russia

SpaceX still leads the rest of the world in successful launches, 154 to 122.

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Two suborbital test launches in Poland during the past month

10:03 am

According to different reports, it appears Poland successfully completed two different suborbital test launches since October, both launching from Poland’s Central Air Force Training Range in Ustka.

First, on October 24, 2025 a consortium of private and government entities successfully launched a three-stage suborbital rocket.

The project began in early 2020 and received roughly 18.6 million zł (€4.1 million) in EU funding through the European Regional Development Fund. The consortium is led by state-owned aerospace company WZL-1, and includes the Military Institute of Armament Technology (WITU) of the Ministry of Defence, and defence manufacturer ZPS Gamrat. While initially intended to carry payloads into space, WITU has stated that the technology could also be used for the development of anti-aircraft and tactical missiles.

According to a government official, the rocket reached a planned altitude of 40 miles, short of space.

Next, on November 22, 2025, the Perun rocket built by the Polish startup SpaceForest was launched (translated by Google):

On Saturday, just before 2 PM, the company SpaceForest successfully launched its Perun suborbital rocket from the Central Air Force Training Ground in Ustka, Poland. The rocket carried research payloads from across Poland. This was the third test flight of this rocket.

According to Marcin Sarnowski, a representative of SpaceForest, the flight went according to plan. The launch time was announced approximately 40 minutes before the countdown, in accordance with the company’s earlier announcements. The flight was visible from the beach. “During the flight, we managed to test many systems and experiments. We will know all the details soon,” said Sarnowski.

It increasingly appears Poland is developing its own rocket industry. SpaceForest for example has deals to launch its suborbital rocket from multiple spaceports in the Azores, on a ocean platform in the North Sea, and in Norway’s Andoya spaceport.

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NASA releases images during Osiris-Apex’s fly-by of Earth in late September

9:42 am

Earth as seen by Osiris-Apex
Click for original image.

NASA today released photos taken by the asteroid probe Osiris-Apex (formerly Osiris-Rex) as it swung past the Earth on September 23, 2025 at a distance 2,136 miles, on its way to the asteroid Apophis.

The picture to the right, cropped, reduced, and sharpened to post here, was one of about 424 images taken by the spacecraft during the fly-by. From those, scientists compiled a movie, which you can view here. As this picture shows, South America was in view on the right side of the Earth.

Osiris-Apex, which had already completed its prime mission by returning samples from the asteroid Bennu, is scheduled to arrive at Apophis shortly after that asteroid’s close fly-by of the Earth on April 13, 2029. The Trump administration had threatened to shut it down for budget reasons, but Congress restored those funds in ending the government shut down.

At that time Apophis will zip past only 20,000 miles from Earth. There will be no chance of collision. Nor is there much chance Apophis will hit the Earth in the next two centuries. Its orbit however makes it a potentially dangerous asteroid, and that 2029 fly-by could change these calculations.

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Twin Escapade Mars orbiters take first images to test instruments

9:21 am

Escapade camera test
Click for original image.

The two twin Escapade Mars orbiters, built by Rocket Lab, that were launched last week by Blue Origin’s New Glenn rocket have both successfully activated and tested their optical and infrared cameras.

The optical picture to the right, reduced to post here, shows the side of one solar panel on one of the orbiters.

The images prove the cameras are working well. The visible-light image also suggests that the spacecraft should have the sensitivity to image Martian aurora from orbit. The infrared camera will be used at Mars to better understand how materials on the surface heat up and cool down during Mars’ day-night cycle and over the planet’s seasons.

The second ESCAPADE spacecraft also successfully took its first photos, but it was targeted toward deep space, so the images were simply black.

The NASA press release did not explain why the second spacecraft’s camera was pointed in that manner. One would think the engineers would want it to look at the spacecraft in order to test its pointing and resolution. It could be it is placed in this manner and cannot be changed, or it could be there is a problem not mentioned by the release.

The two spacecraft are taking a different path to Mars than normal. Both will remain as Lagrange Point 2, a million miles from Earth until November 2026, when they will then be sent back towards Earth to slingshot past to arrive at Mars in September 2027. This plan allowed the spacecraft to be launched with greater flexibility, rather than be tied to the launch windows that occur every two years that all other Mars probes have used.

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Vast signs deal with Colombia’s space agency

8:01 am

Haven-1 with docked Dragon capsule
Haven-1 with docked Dragon capsule

The space station startup Vast last week signed an agreement with the space agency of the South American country of Colombia to do cooperative research, linked to Vast’s planned space stations.

The agreement suggested it would be used mostly to encourage educational and research opportunities for Colombia’s universities and schools. However, the press release added this tidbit:

Both organizations intend to work together to identify joint initiatives that leverage Vast’s spacecraft, including Haven-1, scheduled to be the world’s first commercial space station, with AEC’s [Columbia’s space agency] growing ecosystem of data analytics, connectivity, and science education programs.

Vast already has similar agreements with Uzbeckistan, the Czech Republic, and the European Space Agency. Its Haven-1 single module station, set to launch next year for a three-year mission during which it will be occupied four different times for several weeks, still has no confirmed passengers or crews. One can’t help wondering if these international deals hint at the possibility that one or all of these international partners will fly astronauts there.

It is also possible Vast has been hunting for passengers, and as yet has not been able to convince anyone to buy a ticket. I expect everyone is waiting to see the condition of Haven-1, after it launches.

There is one problem that might make any final deal with Colombia difficult: Its Marxist president does not have a very good relationship with the Trump administration.

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A Midnight Repost: Farewell to America

12:29 am

I wrote the essay below the day before the November 2024 election, when it remained very uncertain whether it would be Donald Trump or Kamala Harris as our next president.

The essay itself did not get picked up at very many news aggregates. Nor did it garner as much traffic as would be expected, based on the aggregates that did pick it up. I believe the reason was the depressing title.

No matter, the point I made then still holds. The fundamental American culture — based on freedom, family, and the Judeo-Christian values of Western Civilization — that made this the most prosperous place ever created by humankind in its entire history no longer exists.

What will come remains unknown. We might see a resurgence of that culture, especially based on the public’s response following the murder of Charlie Kirk. Then again, we might not. As I said in the very first line of my history, Leaving Earth, societies change.

I repost this essay now, during Thanksgiving week, because I strongly believe it essential that we understand exactly where we stand, in order to make it possible for us to move forward, in the right direction. The essay is also another example of my never-ending and too often successful effort to look farther into the future than others. I think a year later this essay stands up quite well in this sense.

———————————–
Farewell to America

The Liberty Bell
“Proclaim liberty throughout all the land unto all
the inhabitants thereof.” Photo credit: William Zhang

Despite my headline, this essay is not intended to be entirely pessimistic. Instead it is my effort to accept a reality that I think few people, including myself, have generally been able to process: The country we shall see after tomorrow’s election will not be the America as founded in 1776 and continued to prosper for the next quarter millennium.

The country can certainly be made great again. Elon Musk’s SpaceX proves it, time after time. The talent and creativity of free Americans is truly endless, and if Donald Trump wins it is very likely that energy will be unleashed again, in ways that no one can predict.

The country can certainly become free again. There is no law that prevents the elimination of bureaucracy and regulation, no matter how immortal government agencies appear to be. The fall of the Soviet Union in 1991 proves this. Though Russia has sadly retreated back to its top-down government-ruling ways, the country did wipe out almost all its bureaucracy in 1991, resulting in an exuberant restart that even today is nowhere near as oppressive as Soviet rule.

Should Donald Trump win, we should have every expectation that he will do the largest house-cleaning of the federal government ever. The benefits will be immeasurable, and magnificent.

What however will not change, even if Donald Trump wins resoundingly tomorrow, is the modern culture and political ethics that now exist. That modern culture is fundamentally different than the America that existed during the country’ s first 200 years, and it guarantees that America can never be the country it once was.
» Read more

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China launches unmanned Shenzhou-22 capsule to its Tiangong-3 station

9:23 pm

UPDATE: The capsule successfully docked with Tiangong-3 as planned, thus giving its three astronauts a lifeboat again.

China tonight (November 25, 2025 Chinese local time) successfully launched an unmanned Shenzhou-22 capsule to its Tiangong-3 station, its Long March 2F rocket lifting off from its Jiuquan spaceport in northwest China.

China moved very fast to get this rocket and capsule integrated and stacked and ready to launch, less than three weeks. This speed was essential because the three-person crew on Tiangong-3 had no usable lifeboat capsule which they could use should something go wrong and they needed to evacuate. Their capsule, Shenzhou-21, had been used by the previous crew to get back to Earth because that crew’s capsule, Shenzhou-20, had been damaged by “space debris,” according to China’s state-run press.

The capsule is scheduled to dock with Tiangong-3 later in the day, about six hours after launch.

No word by China’s press where the rocket’s lower stages crashed inside China.

The leaders in the 2025 launch race:

154 SpaceX
73 China (a new record)
15 Rocket Lab
13 Russia

SpaceX still leads the rest of the world in successful launches, 154 to 121.

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NASA trims $768 million from Boeing’s Starliner contract

9:08 pm

Starliner docked to ISS
Starliner docked to ISS in 2024.

According to one story late today, the modifications NASA announced today on its Starliner contract with Boeing will trim $768 million from the total contract, assuming the two later optional manned missions never fly.

Originally valued at $4.5 billion, Boeing’s contract under the Commercial Crew Program envisioned six operational astronaut flights. NASA’s latest modification cuts that number to four, including up to three crewed missions and an uncrewed cargo flight set for April 2026. Two additional flights remain optional. With the changes, the contract’s value has dropped by $768 million to $3.732 billion; NASA has already paid $2.2 billion to date.

Boeing can still earn that additional money if if somehow manages to convince NASA to do all six flights. It will have great difficult achieving this, however, since there probably won’t be enough time to get all six flights up before ISS is retired. That fact is partly why NASA has made this change.

This report however suggests that NASA is not paying Boeing extra money for the unmanned cargo mission in April 2026. Instead, it is treating it as if it were the first operational manned Starliner flight, paying Boeing its purchase price as if it had achieved all its milestones during the manned demo flight last year.

It really pays in today’s America to be a big giant corporation that does lots of business with our bloated and very corrupt federal government. That government is then quite willing to bend over backwards to help you, even if you are like Boeing and incompetent (Starliner), corrupt (737-MAX), or routinely go over-budget and fail to deliver on time (Air Force One). That certainly appears to be the case here with Boeing.

Hat tip BtB’s stringer Jay.

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Robert Goulet & Julie Andrews – My Cup Runneth Over

6:01 pm

An evening pause: From the 1966 Broadway musical, I Do! I Do!, and performed here on the Julie Andrews Show. I originally posted this in 2012, on our wedding anniversary. This chorus now strikes me most profoundly:

In only a moment we both will be old
We won’t even notice the world turning cold
And so, in this moment with sunlight above
My cup runneth over with love.

Hat tip Diane Zimmerman.

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Blue Origin’s Blue Ring orbital tug gets a customer

3:40 pm

Blue Origin today announced that the orbital situational awareness company Optimum Technologies (OpTech) has purchased payload space on the first flight of its Blue Ring orbital tug.

Blue Ring’s first mission is expected to launch in 2026 with initial injection into Geostationary Transfer Orbit (GTO) and additional services performed in Geostationary Orbit (GEO). The Blue Ring vehicle will demonstrate its ability to simultaneously support the GEO tracking and custody mission as well as space object characterization, leveraging dynamic maneuverability to support high-resolution characterization.

OpTech’s Caracal sensor is designed to provide actionable insights on resident space objects and orbital activity and includes onboard image storage, object detection algorithms, and passive thermal control. The payload is designed to operate flexibly across dynamic orbits over a year-long mission profile. Caracal will fly with Scout Space’s Owl sensor, along with internally developed payloads, all demonstrating Blue Ring as the ideal platform for supporting future GEO space domain awareness missions.

This instrument is designed to inspect what else is in orbit. It could be that the mission will have Blue Ring fly close to other satellites, both foreign and domestic, so that Caracal can gather imagery and data. Such capabilities are things both the Chinese and Russians have tested repeatedly and the Pentagon needs as well.

This announcement once again indicates that under CEO David Limp, Blue Origin is finally beginning to actually do things.

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November 24, 2025 Quick space links

3:01 pm

Courtesy of BtB’s stringer Jay. This post is also an open thread. I welcome my readers to post any comments or additional links relating to any space issues, even if unrelated to the links below.

  • The Long March-2F carrying Shenzhou-22 is now on the launchpad
    It will carry only cargo to provide a lifeboat for the astronauts on Tiangon-3. While many in the west are speculating it will launch on November 25th due to road closure notices, all China has said so far is that it is “scheduled for launch in the near future.”
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NASA downgrades Boeing’s Starliner contract

12:36 pm

Starliner docked to ISS
Starliner docked to ISS in 2024.

NASA today announced a major revision to its contract for Boeing’s manned Starliner capsule, changes that will require it to fly one more unmanned cargo mission to ISS before putting people on it again, while also reducing the total number of later purchased manned flights.

As part of the modification, the definitive order has been adjusted to four missions, with the remaining two available as options. The next Starliner flight, known as Starliner-1, will be used by NASA to deliver necessary cargo to the orbital laboratory and allow in-flight validation of the system upgrades implemented following the Crew Flight Test mission last year.

NASA and Boeing are targeting no earlier than April 2026 to fly the uncrewed Starliner-1 pending completion of rigorous test, certification, and mission readiness activities. Following Starliner certification, and a successful Starliner-1 mission, Starliner will fly up to three crew rotations to the International Space Station.

It has been rumored for months that NASA would require Boeing to fly another unmanned mission before certifying Starliner for manned flights. The question that this press release does not answer is whether NASA is paying for this unmanned flight. The original contract was fixed price, and required Boeing to meet certain milestones before further payments. Another cargo flight to ISS was not in that original deal.

I therefore suspect this is NASA’s way to get Starliner certified. Boeing has likely refused to pay for another demo flight, threatening instead in negotiations to cancel the project entirely. NASA however needs to get cargo to ISS. By buying a cargo mission from Boeing (possibly instead of Northrop Grumman’s Cygnus capsule, which is presently hindered because it lacks its Antares launch vehicle), NASA gets that cargo while also saving Starliner.

The bottom line remains fundamental: Will Boeing finally be able to do a successful problem-free Starliner flight in April 2026? We shall have to see. The fact that NASA appears to be reducing the total number of eventual Starliner missions to ISS indicates its own lack of confidence.

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Who was Cornelius Vanderbilt?

12:03 pm

The First Tycoon

I ask the question in my headline because I am quite sure it is a question most Americans can no longer answer, with any firm knowledge. I myself didn’t know who Vanderbilt really was until I read a wonderful biography of him, The First Tycoon: The epic life of Cornelius Vanderbilt by T.J. Stiles, about two months ago.

Beforehand, all I really knew about Vanderbilt was that he had been a big deal somehow in the 1800s, and as a result there was a statue of him on the south side of Grand Central Station in New York, visible only by drivers going past on the overpass that circles the station.

What I learned from Stiles book however was astonishing. Not only did Vanderbilt build Grand Central Station, it was part of a transportation empire he created that by the end of his life covered most of the eastern United States. For Americans in the 1800s, if you needed to get from one place to another, you almost certainly rode on a Vanderbilt steamship or railroad.

Even more interesting to me however were the remarkable similarities in style, approach, and success between the Cornelius Vanderbilt of the 1800s and the Elon Musk of the 2000s. Both focused on taking new technology and making it profitable. Both built their empires on transportation.

And most of all, both focused on the product they were building to make money, not on speculating its value to make a quick buck.
» Read more

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Two Middle Eastern startups sign deal to build a mini-shuttle dubbed Oryx

9:15 am

LEAP71's aerospike test engine
Leap71’s smallscale aerospike engine during testing.
Click for original image.

A rocket startup in the UAE, Aspire, has signed a partnership deal with a rocket engine startup in Dubai, Leap71, to build a fully reusable mini-shuttle dubbed Oryx, not unlike the Dream Chaser mini-shuttle that Sierra Space has been trying to launch now for more than a decade.

As part of the plan, Leap71 will develop two types of engines for Oryx, including one using an aerospike nozzle.

Building on their ongoing cooperation, Aspire Space is now contracting LEAP 71 to develop the rocket engines powering the Oryx’s second stage. Each engine will produce 20 tons (200 kN) of thrust, and the partners are pursuing two parallel propulsion paths: a conventional engine and a novel aerospike configuration.

The aerospike concept, long studied but never flown, offers superior efficiency across both atmospheric and vacuum flight regimes — making it particularly well suited for reusable launch systems. LEAP 71 gained international recognition in December 2024 for successfully testing a 5 kN aerospike engine, validating key aspects of its design.

The picture to the right shows the LEAP aerospike engine during those 2024 tests. As I noted then, “The spike in the center acts as one wall of the nozzle, and the changing pressure of the atmosphere acting as the other side of the nozzle, allowing the nozzle size to change as the rocket rises, thus making its thrust as efficient as possible.”

Those tests were done in the United Kingdom, suggesting the company relied on British engineers using financing from Dubai. Even so, to go from that smallscale test to a full engine launching both a rocket and a reusable mini-shuttle will be a major challenge. Or to put it another way, to say their plans are aspirational is an understatement.

Hat tip BtB’s stringer Jay.

7 comments

A magnificent barred spiral

8:58 am

A barred spiral
Click for original image.

Cool image time! The picture to the right, reduced to post here, was released two weeks ago as the European Space Agency’s (ESA) Hubble picture of the week, showing a classic barred spiral galaxy that is estimated to be about 50 million light years away. From the caption:

This galaxy has been nicknamed the ‘Lost Galaxy’ because it’s extremely faint when viewed through a small telescope.

…On full display in this Hubble image are NGC 4535’s young star clusters, which dot the galaxy’s spiral arms. Many of the groupings of bright blue stars are enclosed by glowing pink clouds. These clouds, called H II (‘H-two’) regions, are a sign that the galaxy is home to especially young, hot, and massive stars that are blazing with high-energy radiation. By heating the clouds in which they were born, shooting out powerful stellar winds, and eventually exploding as supernovae, massive stars certainly shake up their surroundings.

The photo was taken as part of a survey of similar nearby galaxies in order to study these H-II regions.

I look at that bar and wonder at the wondrous mystery of the universe, to form such shapes.

It is so far a very slow news day.

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A company that wants to shoot payloads into orbit with a cannon

9:23 am

Link here. The company is called Longshot. It isn’t the only company attempting to do this. I reported on another company, Green Launch, in 2022, but have heard little from it since then.

I leave it to the engineers in my readership to tell me if this company has any chance of success. It seems to me that any payloads it launches would likely have to be dead weight, like water or oxygen or fuel, as the speeds involve would damage delicate instrumentation.

31 comments

SpaceX launches 28 Starlink satellites; 1st stage flies for first time

9:14 am

UPDATE: When I wrote this post, several sources stated that the first stage was flying for its thirtieth time. I relied on those sources. As it turns out, they were wrong. The first stage on this launch was flying for its first time. The post below has been rewritten to correct this error.

———————–
SpaceX early this morning successfully placed another 28 Starlink satellites into orbit, its Falcon 9 rocket lifting off from Vandenberg Space Force Base in California.

The first stage completed its first flight, landing on a drone ship in the Pacific.

The leaders in the 2025 launch race:

154 SpaceX (a new record)
72 China
15 Rocket Lab
13 Russia

SpaceX now leads the rest of the world in successful launches, 154 to 120.

8 comments

Startup B2Space launches rocket from balloon

10:21 am

The startup B2Space has completed a test flight using a balloon to lift a solid-fueled rocket to high altitude, where the rocket was then launched.

In a 17 November update, the company announced that it had completed a test of its integrated rockoon launch system using a “rocket of lower power than that planned for the commercial version of the system.” The test was conducted from the Port of Vueltas in Valle Gran Rey in the Canary Islands. Its aim was to validate key elements of the company’s rockoon launch system, including the rocket rail alignment and ignition subsystems.

The balloon was launched at 4:00 CET and carried the small rocket to an altitude of 21.5 kilometres, at which point the rocket was launched. Speaking to European Spaceflight, B2Space CTO Valentin confirmed that the ignition system had been successful but did not share any details about the state of the rocket itself. In a 17 November update, the company confirmed that all elements of the launch system had been successfully recovered following the test.

Calling this company a startup is not quite accurate, as it has been around for almost a decade, pushing the idea of a a balloon-launched rocket, dubbed a “rockoon”. The idea itself is not new. If my memory serves me right, it had been tested intermittently in some form as early as the 1950s.

The company hopes to test a larger suborbital version in 2026, followed by an orbital test.

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SpaceX issues 1st statement regarding Superheavy test explosion

9:27 am

Damaged Superheavy
Click for original image.

SpaceX yesterday issued its first update regarding the explosion in the lower half of the Superheavy booster that it had planned to fly on the next orbital test flight.

Booster 18 suffered an anomaly during gas system pressure testing that we were conducting in advance of structural proof testing. No propellant was on the vehicle, and engines were not yet installed. The teams need time to investigate before we are confident of the cause. No one was injured as we maintain a safe distance for personnel during this type of testing. The site remains clear and we are working plans to safely reenter the site.

That no propellant was involved explains why the booster and test pad experienced relatively little damage. They were likely pumping nitrogen through the system to test it, and while something exploded, the gases were not volatile.

The picture to the right is a screen capture from aerial drone flights performed by RGV Aerial Photography and posted on nasaspaceflight.com. I have enhanced it to bring out the details. Note the lack of damage on all sides of the booster at its base. The explosion was clearly confined to the booster, and appears to have occurred from within.

21 comments

SpaceX launches 29 more Starlink satellites

1:02 am

SpaceX early this morning successfully launched another 29 Starlink satellites, its Falcon 9 rocket lifting off from Cape Canaveral in Florida.

The first stage completed its 9th flight, landing on a drone ship in the Atlantic.

The leaders in the 2025 launch race:

153 SpaceX (a new record)
72 China
15 Rocket Lab
13 Russia

SpaceX now leads the rest of the world in successful launches, 153 to 120.

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November 21, 2025 Quick space links

3:07 pm

Courtesy of BtB’s stringer Jay. This post is also an open thread. I welcome my readers to post any comments or additional links relating to any space issues, even if unrelated to the links below.

  • On this day in 1998, the first module of ISS was launched from Baikonur
    Dubbed Zarya, it was built by Russia but paid for by the U.S., which still owns it. Though it is the oldest module on ISS, it is the Russian Zvezda module, launched two years later, that presently has the stress fractures in its hull from which the station’s atmosphere is leaking, and which threaten the station’s survival in the next four years.
9 comments

Bigoted academia upset that Trump won’t allow them to push the racist DEI agenda

12:53 pm

Lysenko with Stalin
Trofim Lysenko (on the left), preaching to Stalin as he destroyed
Soviet plant research by persecuting anyone who disagreed with him,
thus causing famines that killed millions. He is now the role model for
today’s entire science community.

Cue the world’s smallest violin! An article today in the journal Science proves once again that science has nothing to do with what that journal now publishes. The headline:

‘This is censorship.’ Conference requires abstracts to comply with Trump anti-DEI order

It seems scientists submitting abstracts to the annual Lunar and Planetary Science Conference (LPSC) in Texas are upset because the Trump administration will not allow any papers to include any mention of diversity, equity, or inclusion (DEI) as a topic.

The Lunar and Planetary Science Conference (LPSC), hosted annually by the Lunar and Planetary Institute (LPI) in Texas, last week announced a new requirement for the upcoming 2026 conference: All submitted abstracts must comply with executive orders from the administration of U.S. President Donald Trump. His 20 January executive order called DEI “illegal and immoral discrimination programs” and terminated both federal DEI programs as well as grant funding for DEI initiatives. The conference policy follows moves earlier this year by LPI’s parent organization, the Universities Space Research Association (USRA), to scrub DEI-related content—including archived LPSC abstracts—from its websites.

Researchers are fuming, saying LPSC is doubling down on its previous decisions, and prioritizing avoiding trouble with the government over intellectual freedom. “This is censorship,” says planetary scientist Paul Byrne of Washington University in St. Louis. “Even if the percentage of people who would normally write a DEI abstract is small, a much larger percent are pissed off.”

In other words, the science community wants to support DEI racial discrimination, because it is designed to favor the racial and sexual groups they favor. To them it is more important to infuse these bigoted ideas into all science, rather than actually report real research about the solar system and planets.
» Read more

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What might be the weirdest crater on Mars

12:44 pm

What might be Mars' weirdest crater
Click for original.

Cool image time! The picture to the right is taken from a global mosaic created from images taken by the wide-view context camera on Mars Reconnaissance Orbiter (MRO). The original source image was probably a photograph taken on February 15, 2020.

I normally begin with an image from MRO’s high resolution camera, but the only images that camera took of this crater did not show it entirely. This context camera shows it in all its glory, what to my eye appears to be one of the weirdest craters I’ve seen on Mars.

First, note its oblong shape — 5.5 miles long and 3.7 miles wide — which appears to narrow to the southeast. It certainly appears that if this crater was caused by an impact, the bolide came in at a very low angle from the northwest, plowing this 700-foot-deep divot as it drove itself into the ground. Research has shown that an impact has to come in almost sideways to do this. Even at slightly higher angles the resulting craters will still appear round.

But wait, there’s more!
» Read more

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