ISS as presently configured. Click for original.

For the first time in its more than quarter century history, all eight docking ports on ISS are occupied, as shown in the graphic to the right.

For the first time in International Space Station history, all eight docking ports aboard the orbital outpost are occupied following the reinstallation of Northrop Grumman’s Cygnus XL cargo spacecraft to the Earth-facing port of the station’s Unity module. The eight spacecraft attached to the complex are: two SpaceX Dragons, Cygnus XL, JAXA’s (Japan Aerospace Exploration Agency) HTV-X1, two Roscosmos Soyuz crew spacecraft, and two Progress cargo ships.

This milestone follows the reattachment of the Cygnus XL spacecraft, supporting the Northrop Grumman-23 commercial resupply services mission for NASA, which was removed last week by the robotics officer at the agency’s Mission Control Center in Houston using the space station’s Canadarm2 robotic arm. The Cygnus XL movement was coordinated between NASA, Northrop Grumman, and Roscosmos to provide appropriate clearance for the arriving crewed Soyuz MS-28 spacecraft on Nov. 27.

Cygnus will remain attached to the orbiting laboratory until no earlier than March 2026, when it is scheduled to safely depart and dispose of up to 11,000 pounds of trash and unneeded cargo when it harmlessly burns up in Earth’s atmosphere.

This situation will not last of course, and in fact it may never happen again before the station is retired around 2030. First, Cygnus will leave in March. Second, one Russian Soyuz capsule will leave shortly, as the presence of two simply indicates a crew rotation is underway.

Third, it is presently unclear when the Russians will be able to launch further Soyuz or Progress capsules. Its only launchpad for doing so experienced significant damage last week when the new crew was launched, its mobile transporter (used to move the rocket to the pad) falling into the flame trench below. Reports suggest that it might take Russia two years to clean up the damage and replace it, though I suspect it will move quicker than this.

Either way, the next Progress freighter will not launch in December as planned. Nor is it likely that the next Soyuz manned crew will launch as scheduled in the spring. The next flight might have to wait until late next year, at the earliest. If so, it is likely that the new crew launched last week will be asked to do a significantly extended mission, even a record-breaking one lasting more than fifteen months, in order to keep the Russian half of ISS occupied by a Russian crew.

As the Russians had already decided to reduce these launches from two per year to three every two years, this decision is less radical than it appears. The biggest problem however would be supplying the Russians with cargo, as no Progress freighters could arrive during that time. If the Russians ask NASA to pick up the slack, this would be a great opportunity to get back some of the cash they made the U.S. pay when we had to rely on Soyuz capsules after the shuttle was retired and SpaceX’s Dragon capsules were not yet flying. During that time the Russians worked to soak NASA for as much as possible.

In fact, NASA should stay out entirely, as it really is a somewhat disinterested third party. If the Russians want to hire SpaceX to provide it cargo, it should negotiate directly with SpaceX. That American private company should have the freedom to make as much as it can from this situation.

The so-far unstated consequence of this situation however is that there is now a good chance that the longest mission ever in space has just begun, with the possibility of breaking Valeri Polyakov’s 439 day record (about 14.5 months) set in 1994-1995.