12 comments

• Joe2

  January 16, 2012 at 6:34 pm

  Not trying to start an argument, but last Fall’s “Dry Run” for the final review for this flight was very (to put it mildly) problematic. SpaceX resources are strained trying to make all the required corrections. Be interesting to see how long it takes to get ready to try the test flight.
• Kelly Starks

  January 17, 2012 at 6:11 am

  You’ld expect that though. SpaceX always grossly undercut their engineering and development budgets to well under a tenth that of similar commercial programs, or a 100th a similar NASA program. That always looks great until you try to get a workable product out the door – and SpaceX has had more relyability problems and accidents then any significant launcher program in generations.

  frankly my fear is they would squeek through a couple test flights, then crash nito the station, or crash adn kill a load of passengers – THEN admit they have problems they need to deal with.
• Joe2

  January 17, 2012 at 8:05 am

  All to true. It is also a reason to be skeptical of SpaceX press releases stating they are simultaneously:

  – Completing work on their COTS commitments
  – Developing their CCDev system
  – Developing the Falcon Heavy
  – Developing a reusable version of the Falcon 9
• Kelly Starks

  January 17, 2012 at 8:56 am

  Yeah, if you were a top of the line “tiger team” of experts (a Skunk works or ScaledComposits at their best) that list is several to tens of billions of dollars worth of engineering and development effort. SpaceX in their total history hasn’t spent a billion on everything; and Musk staffs with green newbies, not a Tiger team of top in their field experts.

  This is not adding up .

  Oh, and you forgot Musks talking about SpaceX launching Manned missions to Mars in maybe 10 years, certainly 20 — and in 20 they be moving huge numbers (in a recent interview he said possibly millions ) of colonists to Mars. Which would burn through billions ni dev adn program costs.
• Craig Beasley

  January 17, 2012 at 9:11 am

  I work for SpaceX’s competition, but even so, I know that the ultimate goal as a spacefaring species is for business to put Joe Sixpack into space. It can’t be the government doing it forever, any more than sending the U.S. Calvalry out to the west was the act of settlement. People have to start living and working there.

  I hope that SpaceX’s urge to ‘rub our faces in it’ doesn’t result in something that screws up the commercial push to space.
• Kelly Starks

  January 17, 2012 at 10:40 am

  My biggest fear is that SpaceX will become a Pied Piper drawing all the space advocates after it — then crash and burn, taking all of advocacy, and belief in space industrialization with it.

  We’ve already seen SpaceX’s prominence in CCDev as a club to discredit the concept. More could well (probably will) come.
• Chris Kirkendall

  January 17, 2012 at 12:49 pm

  Well, admittedly, I’m a fan of SpaceX – I like their “Can-Do”attitude, and thinking that just because others haven’t done it before doesn’t mean they CAN’T. But I’m taking a “wait and see” attitude – let the proof be in the pudding. If they pull off the next phase without a hitch (or at least, without a major one…) & then succeeding ones, they’ll make believers out of a lot of folks who doubt them now. Maybe it’s just wishful thinking on my part – I’m not an engineer & never worked in the industry, just a fan of space exploration, especially manned. I think most of us would concede they’ve come farther, and faster, than anyone thought possible. Let’s see how they do – I sincerely wish them luck…
• Joe2

  January 17, 2012 at 1:42 pm

  I also wish them luck, but they are already more than two years behind their own initial schedule (first cargo delivery Fall 2009) and counting. If a ‘government’ program fell that far behind many critics would be talking about incompetence.

  My own concern is similar to the ones stated above. If they fail spectacularly at this point (after all the over the top promises) it will be a serious setback not only for ‘commercial space’, but for the more traditional type of program as well.
• Craig Beasley

  January 17, 2012 at 1:44 pm

  That’s exactly my sentiment. Spot on!
• Kelly Starks

  January 18, 2012 at 7:36 am

  >.. just because others haven’t done it before doesn’t mean they CAN’T..

  The problem is succeeding where no one has before, or more specificly building what lots of others have built – The problem is succeeding where no one has before, or more specificly building what lots of others have built – but 40 times cheaper; means you need to come up with some great new idea or, or have superior expertise, or something. SpaceX is very far from having any of that (as their string of amateurish mistakes testifies). They are making a very dated design craft, without understanding that this design’s limits contradict their goals. (Its a great design for doing what Musk has no interest in, and really crappy if you want to do what he wants.) Making increasingly unreasonable claims etc., not being able to deliver no promised coat capability promises, and an increasingly defensive management. Doing things that echo classic dot come companies before the crash actions.

  So SpaceX increasingly doesn’t fit the bill as great innovator and developer opening the frontier, or even a reliable, competitive, service provider.
  .
• Kelly Starks

  January 18, 2012 at 7:38 am

  :)
  Thanks. Normally folks threaten to burn me at the state for saying such things “against the true faith”.

  ;/
• Chris Kirkendall

  January 18, 2012 at 10:10 am

  OK – well, some of you guys may know more than I do. I guess we’ll find out soon enough if they truly do have their act together, or whether they’re just blowin’ smoke. Anyone know if there’s a new target date for this next launch? March, April – ???