COVID-19 is NOT going to overwhelm our healthcare system


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As part of the panic that has been overwhelming the world because of COVID-19, one of the typical lies that is being spread is that the epidemic is going to overwhelm the world’s healthcare systems. This CNN article from yesterday, entitled “‘That’s when all hell broke loose’: Coronavirus patients start to overwhelm US hospitals”, is typical:

“We ended up getting our first positive patients — and that’s when all hell broke loose,” said one New York City doctor.

The doctor, who spoke to CNN on condition of anonymity out of concern for his job, described a hospital that was woefully unprepared for an influx of Covid-19 patients that started roughly two weeks ago — which has already stretched the hospital’s resources thin and led to severely ill patients outnumbering ventilators.

“We don’t have the machines, we don’t have the beds,” the doctor said.

“To think that we’re in New York City and this is happening,” he added. “It’s like a third-world country type of scenario. It’s mind-blowing.” [emphasis mine]

We’re all gonna die!

Not! To dispell these mainstream media lies, I am going to give my readers an example of what a real journalist does, in comparison to the brainless non-researchers at CNN (and elsewhere) who make believe they are journalists but instead play them, on television and cable each day, in order to push an anti-American and leftist agenda that is downright evil and destructive.

I’m going to do some real research, and provide it to my readers so that they can get some context and a deeper understanding of the fake Wuhan flu “pandemic.”

The past eight flu seasons

To the right is a graph I have put together using the actual estimates of flu hospitalizations and deaths in the United States since 2011 that have been gathered by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC). As you can see, last year’s flu season (2018-2019) was the worst in the U.S. in the past decade (and the worst according to the CDC for decades), with about 810,000 people requiring hospitalization and approximately 61,000 individuals dying from the flu. Even so, the numbers were not far different from previous flu seasons, with the average hospitalizations since 2011 ranging from 140,000 to 590,000, with deaths generally averaging just under 40,000 per year

During the past decade therefore the American healthcare system was apparently able to handle numbers like this quite capably, without bodies piling up in the street or in the hallways of hospitals.

The past eight flu seasons, with COVID-19 added

To the right is the exact same graph. This time however I have added to the 2019-2020 season all the confirmed U.S. cases of COVID-19 (not just hospitalizations) as well as all the confirmed COVID-19 deaths, as of today.

Notice anything? Yup, you got it. The totals hardly go up, and are in fact quite within the proven capabilities of the American healthcare system. As I’ve noted earlier, the Wuhan virus is a relative pinprick when compared with the annual flu season. Compared for example to the swine flu epidemic in 2009-2010, when the CDC estimated 274,304 hospitalizations and 12,469 deaths, the numbers for Wuhan are so far relatively small.

Now, we all know that the Wuhan epidemic is still in its early stages in the U.S. and therefore these numbers will certainly rise, quite possibly exceeding the swine flu numbers from 2009-2010. In the end however I am quite willing to bet that they will not rise much higher than what was seen in 2018-2019, or in 2009-2010, years where no lockdowns occurred, no one exercised social distancing, no panics occurred, and if you had suggested imposing martial law you would have been laughed out of the room.

Meanwhile, our brainless Congress is about to pass a $2 trillion COVID-19 stimulus bill, printing money like it grows on trees, that includes about $150 billion in money for hospitals as well as $130 billion in low interest loans for hospitals.

If only some journalists in our country were more interested in providing some facts, rather than foreboding and wild predictions based on emotional rants from anonymous sources, maybe then our society would not be going insane, and our Congress might not be running around like a chicken without its head, passing bills we can’t afford and possibly don’t need.

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125 comments

  • John C.

    Important information. Thanks for putting that together. I hear reports of morgues filling up too, but it makes me question how many people die on an average day in some of these hotspots and how many MORE are dying now? How many per day die from the Coronavirus and how many are dying because they are not going to the hospital like they normally would? I don’t know how many morgues there are, but I find it hard to believe that they can’t deal with a minute uptight.

  • Ian C.

    By April 15 we’ll have beaten those 61,000 flu deaths from 2018/19 with more C19 deaths.

  • Steve

    While I’m no fan of the mass media, my sister is an MD in Brooklyn NY. She tells me they are nearing capacity in beds and respirators. She is also on their ethics committee and they are discussing possible hard decisions to come.

  • Steve: I’m sorry about the possible NYC bed shortage, but we must also recognize that New York has had a chronic shortage of good and sufficient hospital care for decades, the result of a largely socialist-run system. I grew up in New York, and lived there until the 1990s. I can tell many stories about visiting the hospitals there, none particularly good. The contrast became even more stark once I moved away and started to see what the rest of the country experienced when they visited a hospital.

    I strongly suspect that this disease is not applying any more significant pressure on the system then seen in previous years. The difference is that hospital officials can use the panic to garner more funding and aid.

  • Mike Borgelt

    Mr Heinlein was a hopeless optimist about how crazy “the Crazy Years” would get.

  • Andrew_W

    You fail to take into account the fact that Covid-19 recovery is far slower, so people are in hospital for longer, and that this is going to hit quickly, and not be spread over 3 or 4 months.

  • John

    From Ian’s post earlier today.

    “Ian C.
    March 26, 2020 at 1:25 pm
    By April 15 we’ll have beaten those 61,000 flu deaths from 2018/19 with more C19 deaths.”

    Ian, I sincerely hope you are wrong. Someone please check my calculations.

    61,000 – 35,264 = 25,736. 25,736/17 = 1,513.8 (Average deaths per day to reach a total of 61,000 deaths by COVID-19 by
    April 15)

    GOD Help Us If You Are Right!

  • Wodun

    Taking a few weeks off and keeping our distance could prevent the number from exceeding the swine flu.

    Being hospitalized for this virus isn’t the same as being hospitalized for the flu.

    I think the media is being very sensational but at the same time, this is a dangerous virus that could kill a lot of people if nothing is done. We have to balance all the risks and this will be imperfect in the short term.

  • Cotour

    Interesting, why viruses from bats are so powerful. At least to humans.

    https://www.sciencenews.org/article/bats-immune-system-viruses-ebola-marburg-people

    “infect other animals has been a mystery.
    Previous work suggests that a bat’s immune system is especially adapted to tolerate viruses, thanks in part to its ability to limit inflammation. Now a study using cells grown in a lab hints that to counter a bat’s immune defenses, these viruses have gotten good at spreading rapidly from cell to cell. That means that when they get into animals without a similarly strong immune system, the viruses are particularly adept at causing serious damage, researchers report February 3 in eLife. ”

    PS: What are the Chinese doing to curb these practices of eating these little buggers? Or which ever little bugger is causing these aggressive contagions. Or, what are they doing to eliminate the cross contamination that their open “wet” markets create? If they are not going to do anything about, then we must take protective measures.

  • Ian C.

    John,

    My calc is rather simple. It grows (in urban areas at least) with around 25% daily in the early phase (that seems to be pretty robust in several affected areas). Since the growth’s 2nd derivative is still positive, I don’t need to take the capacity (see logistic growth) of susceptible cases (assuming no reinfections, one is either recovered or dead) into account to extrapolate growth for a couple of weeks. So it’s

    dead_n = dead_today * (1.25)^n

    with n = (reasonable) number of days (e.g. 0 < n < 31) and dead_today (in the US) = 1,209 according to https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/#coronavirus-deaths-log (also scroll down for graphs, they're telling plenty).

    We could create more sophisticated models with age-sex matrices, socioeconomic data, transport connections (e.g. airports are disease hubs), local particularities, events (like carnivals or conferences), and other real-world input etc., but a simple exponential growth guesstimate is good enough for now. Once the growth rate starts to reduce, we can make better guesstimates for the upper bound as well.

    Yes, there are always factors that don't make it into such a simple approach. E.g. once we see local hospitals becoming overwhelmed, the death rate will grow. And once a cure is available, perhaps unexpectedly soon, the death rate will go down.

  • Steve: To add to my comment, watch this clip

  • Andrew_W

    Trying to predict Covid-19 in the US by using China information:

    The peak in daily cases in China happened on Feb 4 with about 4000 cases, (I’m not using the anomalous peak on the 12th that resulted from a change of definitions in what qualified as a confirmed case).

    The number of cumulative deaths in China reached 490 on that date.

    Daily deaths in China peaked on about the 15th Feb at around 150. (The peak was actually very flat with a similar number of deaths from the 12th to the 18th).

    At the time of the Feb 4th peak in daily cases cumulative cases had reached about 25,000 about 1/3rd of total cases to now, so 2/3rds of cases were detected after the peak.

    Total deaths in China has now reached 3300.

    For the US the rate of daily deaths in still increasing, but across most of the US there are now some forms of lock-down and social isolation in effect that should see a peak in new cases in the next week or so.

    So, assuming we see a US peak in daily cases in 7 days, with other trends following the Chinese experience:

    The US cumulative cases is likely to reach 200,000 on about the 4th April with daily cases at peaking at perhaps 25,000 – 6 times the Chinese peak.

    The total US cases would reach 500,000 – 600,000.

    US deaths would peak about 15th April at about 1000/day.

    Cumulative US deaths would eventually reach 20,000 just over 2 months from now.

    So in raw numbers the US gets about 6 times those in China, about 2 months behind China, per million population figures would be about 24 times those in China.

    I expect the tail in the US to be longer due to US efforts being less coordinated than those in China.

    I’m not interested in people saying “Can’t trust Chinese data blah, blah, blah”. you want to run off your own guesses, based on what you think in better data, go for it.

    I think that’s the best case scenario, with Americans being as proactive as the Chinese were from now on, could be worse if people are more casual, though things could go better if the US gears up and has more aggressive testing or if advantage is taken of the better understanding we have of the virus compared to 2 months ago.

  • eddie willers

    Everybody except Robert and I are being so pessimistic.

    Is it because he and I are older (I am 68) and have seen our share of balderdash through the years?

  • wayne

    eddie-

    I’m fairly optimistic about the virus itself and completely pessimistic about the response.

    “Margin Call”
    Sullivan discovers the losses
    2011
    https://youtu.be/7h_7-4991Eg
    8:33

  • pzatchok

    The annual rate of death in the USA is 2,813,503 people. That’s right over 2.8 million die every year.
    https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/fastats/deaths.htm
    That would be about 234,458 each month. 52,106 each week. 7,708 a day.

    NY state has an annual death rate of about 122,740.
    That is 10,228 a month, 2,360 a week, 336 a day.
    https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/pressroom/states/newyork/newyork.htm
    4,500 die from the flu/pneumonia a year normally. Is NY state at 25% of that number yet? They should be at 1,125 dead from C19 if its the same as the flu.

    If our annual national death rate this year goes up 10% that would be an extra 281,350 people killed by this virus.
    Since we are three months into the year we have a heck of a lot of catching up to do. We need an additional 280 thousand people to die by new years. On top of the 2.8+ million who are already going to die.

    If we fall short this is a nothing burger.

  • pzatchok

    To help fix NY cities problems they could just start moving patients (non covid patients)out of the city to surrounding areas.

    The same with the dead.

    From what I understand the city morgues in NY were already at maximum. And had been for years.

  • Andrew_W

    “If we fall short this is a nothing burger.”

    The US won’t have hundreds of thousands killed by this disease – because rational people understand it is not a nothing burger and are taking drastic actions to stop hundreds of thousands being killed by this disease.

    NYS has gotten to 100 deaths a day from Covid-19, do nothing and in a week that would be 1000 deaths a day.

  • Andrew_W wrote, “Rational people understand it is not a nothing burger and are taking drastic actions.”

    I am so glad we have you here, Andrew_W, the only rational man in the room, to tell to us what we should be doing. (The operative word is “tell.” Think about it.) How can we even question you, especially when you presented us with this prediction on March 24, 2020:

    You’re out of date Cotour, deaths is now 655, it’s quadrupling every week, so do nothing:
    Today: 650
    1 week: 2,600
    2 weeks: 10,400
    3 weeks: 41,600
    4 weeks: 166,400
    5 weeks: 665,600

    With plenty more weeks in the year.

    Based on this thoughtful, detailed, and very rational analysis it is obvious that anyone who questions “drastic actions”, such as imposing lockdowns that are threatening to create an economic crash equivalent to the Great Depression, is clearly irrational. Similarly, we really must stop questioning the proposals and actions of our elected leaders, here and across the globe. They really know best, at all times, even when, as Andrew Cuomo today admitted, their decisions to shut everything down and quarantine everyone (one of those “drastic actions” you tout) might not have been so smart.

    Sweeping statewide quarantine orders may not have been the most effective strategy to combat the coronavirus, Gov. Andrew Cuomo conceded on Thursday, as he weighed plans to restart the economy.

    “We closed everything down. That was our public health strategy,” said Cuomo during an Albany press briefing. “If you re-thought that or had time to analyze that public health strategy, I don’t know that you would say ‘Quarantine everyone.’”

    How dare I question Cuomo, or other governors, or Congress, or even Trump? They know best. I should just shut up and acquiesce to these rational leaders.

    As well to you, one of those rational individuals whom always knows best.

    I bow before you, in humbleness at my inability to see the truth.

  • pzatchok

    Its funny how China has peaked and now doesn’t have a single new case. A billion people but not one single new case.
    Do people really think that every boarder of China is perfectly closed? Not a single prostitute from North Korea is getting into China. Not a single drug smuggler is getting in or out.
    Not a single report out of a rural area yet. You know those places where they don’t have hospitals and millions of subsistence farmers live.
    Not one single solder has worked both sides of a boarder around a quarantine zone.

    But somehow the US will not peak until millions die.

    And we have more and better hospitals.
    I don’t see the rich people of the world running to China for treatments.

  • Andrew_W

    Mr. Zimmerman in an earlier post you claimed: “To put it mildly, this epidemic is a nothing burger”

    I queried that with: “But you consider this: “To put it mildly, this epidemic is a nothing burger” accurate and reasonable?”

    “Perhaps you and I see the phrase “nothing burger” differently, to me that means something like “not big enough to take serious action to avoid.””

    To which you replied: “Your point is well taken. My statement was very truly an overstatement, mostly a reaction to the wild over-reaction I see to this virus.”

    Now from you we have this:

    Mr. Zimmerman: “I am so glad we have you here, Andrew_W, the only rational man in the room,”

    I make no such claims, you’re just making things up, as eddie willers points out, others commenting here also consider action is necessary, I consider those people rational. What counts as “drastic action” is a matter of opinion. I’ve made no claims about specific courses of action required other than that social isolation or separation and testing, testing, testing will help slow the spread of the virus, I certainly have not advocated for lock-downs in the US, though such lock-downs have certainly been effective at dramatically slowing the rate of spread of the virus in other countries.

    US deaths are now at 1300, by the 31st March there will be 2600 deaths in the US, by the 7th April there will be close to 10,400 deaths from this virus in the US. If there are not 41,600 deaths by 14th April (as I obviously predict above that there will not be) it will be because in America people and governments did not “do nothing”.

    “Based on this thoughtful, detailed, and very rational analysis it is obviously that anyone who questions “drastic actions”, such as imposing lockdowns that are threatening to create an economic crash equivalent to the Great Depression, is clearly irrational.”

    You can make up claims about what I say if it gives you a thrill, but strawmanning me, attributing assertions to me that I have not made, is a reflection on your ethics, not mine. Me saying that drastic actions” are needed does not define such actions as the actions that have been taken.

    “How dare I question Cuomo, or other governors, or Congress, or even Trump? They know best. I should just shut up and acquiesce to these rational leaders.”

    You can express whatever opinion you like regarding questioning the actions proposed and implemented by government, local, state and national, but you’ve no basis for asserting that I support any action of their outside of those I’ve advocated for.

    “I bow before you, in humbleness at my inability to see the truth.”

    You’re confusing “humbleness” and “arrogance”. Arrogance because you claim to be able to assert what opinions I have when I have asserted no such opinions.

  • pzatchok

    China must have the perfect treatment and cure, a secret vaccine, the virus might have a timer and has stopped, or someone is fudging the numbers.

  • pzatchok

    If we only had Obama as out great leader no one would be panicking.

  • commodude

    Andrew_W, why should a county with no cases completely shut down?

    Travel from disease hotspots wasn’t banned, instead, as has been stated here, in some ways it’s being advocated, as other areas which haven’t mismanaged their local support infrastructure have more beds available.

    Instead, businesses which have nothing to do with the “pandemic” are forced to close, putting people out of work for no gain.

    As to the arrogance which screams from your posts which you claim innocence, there are none so blind as those who WILL NOT see.

    The entire response to this has been completely irrational and unconstitutional.

  • Andrew_W

    “Andrew_W, why should a county with no cases completely shut down?”

    I’ve no idea, you tell me.

    “there are none so blind as those who WILL NOT see.”

    An utterly meaninglessly assertion without given context, someone advocating for policies diametrically opposite the ones you advocate for could also spout “there are none so blind as those who WILL NOT see” with as much pointlessness as you do.

    “Instead, businesses which have nothing to do with the “pandemic” are forced to close, putting people out of work for no gain.”

    Indeed, I’ve made the point on other forums that the measures taken need to be targeted to reduce the spread of the disease with the minimum of adverse economic impact. Businesses should be able to continue to operate with the owners free to take the measures necessary to reduce the chances of transmission of the disease happening through the operation of that business.
    In New Zealand the government has shut down everything considered non-essential, which was stupid as many businesses can operate with little close contact between people, other businesses could minimize contact between employees and eliminate close contact between staff and the public. For instance a retailer could switch to home delivery with on-line shopping and payment.
    In NZ we’ve the ridiculous situation where supermarkets continue to operate with little change but other food retailers eg. butchers have been ordered to close. I would have thought that they should all be able to stay open as long as they are held responsible if their business activities result in the spread of the disease.

    We also have the ridiculous situation where those in “essential” activities are taking zero actions to prevent their activities causing the spread of the disease, as I said on Kiwiblog 2 days ago:

    “I’ve just come back from picking a script up from the pharmacy, I was surprised that of the more than dozen people working in a crowded shop only 3 were wearing masks (maybe not coincidentally they were the 3 ethnic east Asians working there).
    If we are going to kill this bug in 4 weeks there needs to be no leakage.
    I would have thought the special people in “essential” services would be taking at least the minimum of measures to prevent being the conduit for such leakage given the sacrifices us commoners are having to make and the huge economic damage that’s happening.”

    Other examples of the elite in “essential” services include the police taking no precautions such as distancing and wearing masks to prevent themselves spreading the disease.

    I’ve no doubt the changes I would support and think are necessary would be dramatic for many businesses to enable them to continue operating without them being a conduit for the spread of the disease, that does not mean I’m advocating for widespread state intervention – despite Mr. Zimmerman leaping to that assumption.

  • Ian C.

    eddie willers,

    That’s not pessimistic (from my side at least). The American approach to catastrophes seems to be: “Outside of the known and expected (which we can reasonably prepare for), there are so many possible threats, why focus on one in advance, bind resources, and neglect other possible ones? We don’t really know which threats go through the roof and it requires evidence. Most remain small and easy to deal with. But once something actually goes through the roof, we focus on dealing with it full-force.” And that’s why I’m optimistic that America will get hurt first but emerges victorious (and stronger) eventually.
    What I try to do is to argue that this is one of those through-the-roof events.

  • Chris

    I don’t think we know what’s going on yet.
    The reason I say that is that the real test we need is not being widely administered yet. According to Dr Henry Miller on John Batchelor (There is no greater depth of detail nor level of understanding in such a succinct package): Widely distributed seriology testing is needed. Per Dr Miller this blood test will determine if the patient has HAD COVID-19 not just if the case is active. The test determines if the patient has anti-bodies from a prior infection, not just detecting the RNA of an active virus infection.
    Without this data we do not know the true extent of C19 infection into the populace. Because of this we see some models of the path of the spread being large and and some small. We hear some researchers saying many folks “MAY have already had the infection but with few serious symptoms.” Without a statistically significant sample of the seriology data from a statistically significant set of locations I don’t think we know what is happening.

  • wayne

    Chris–
    Good stuff.
    (JB is a National Treasure!)

    To what you refer is commonly called an “antibody titer.” Literally measuring the number of antibodies’ one has to a specific virus.
    (If you’ve received the hepatitis B vaccine for example, some recommend having your hep B antibody titer taken at 10, 15, and 20 years.)
    Until we have a handle on who has already had this, we’re lacking vital knowledge that skews calculations.
    Broadly, there’s quantitative and qualitative testing. Simple screening tests are binary and on the qualitative end of the spectrum; some Thing is present or not at a specific level. Quantitative testing measures the amount of the Thing (the viral-load) present.

  • Craken

    You’d think an astronomy nut would understand exponentials, but I see no evidence of such understanding. Can’t you at least look at a graph?

  • Cotour

    (Andrew W, that was sarcasm, not arrogance, directed at you by the Zman. Its easier and a way around calling you a banned BTB term. What would happen if the Zman had to give himself a time out or to even ban himself? Sometimes I don’t know how he controls himself. Especially when dealing with such Left leaning fraudulent and dishonest by nature opposition)

    ———–

    On another subject:

    You might be aware that there is a proposed agenda that states: There will some day be a false flag “Invasion from outer space” and the solution to this “attack” would be for the world to come together and form a One World Government to battle it. Not so far fetched given our level of technology.

    And here we see that that is exactly what is being proposed by former Brit Prime Minister Gordon Brown. And naturally it comes from our European brothers that are soooo immersed in their EU / Sorosian world government test model. Which sickens me.

    https://www.thegatewaypundit.com/2020/03/here-we-go-former-british-pm-gordon-brown-calls-for-new-global-government-to-fight-impact-of-coronavirus/

    I know the invasion from space sounds a little too sci fi for most, and that would certainly come under the S.O.M. type model of operation, but here we are all the same. The invasion venue has just been changed from outer space to inner space. Same result.

    This tendency to default fearfully conclude that there must be the completion of this Sorosian Globalist dream of a One World Government must be finally destroyed with either a silver bullet or a stake through its heart. Why is that? Because to fulfill those dreams America as formulated and its Constitution must be destroyed. America is the ONLY country that stands in the way of this Orwellian utopian hellish dream.

    And there is only one World Leader that stands in its way. Guess who?

  • Lee S

    A thought just occured to me while posting on a previous thread…. The only differences between the USA and Sweden is the higher tax rate… Which is kinda built into life…. We all still have all the options you guys have, we can build a business, build a house, go out to the forest and shoot an animal and eat it ( guns are much more controlled… But we can still go out and hunt.). We all have exactly the same “freedoms” that you American guys have… Except we have higher taxes, which pay for the social benefits the whole population enjoys… Health care, child care, public transport, road repair, unemployment help…. Etc, etc, etc….
    We are also a democracy… We also get the chance to keep or reject our government every 4 years…. Except we don’t have a regime of only 2 parties, we end up with a mix of the parties the people have voted for, in the proportion of the people who voted for them.
    So to be honest… You Americans consider me to not, somehow, to be “free”. However I can do everything you guys do ( I can even buy my own medical insurance should I wish, but I don’t need to), I have an actual broader democracy than you guys do… I pay higher taxes, I get a much better social service from my government than you guys do…. All the esteemed posters here are welcome to their own systems… But I honestly believe my tax krona are going to good use. They help the tide rise, and that tide raises all ships.

  • Jim

    We do know that the uptick in unemployment if prolonged will result in more annual deaths – poverty kills – the inability to consider a more regional and precision approach to this is unfortunate and has placed additional people at real risk as businesses fail and people are permanently impacted. The doomsday scenarios are just that, wildly off the mark.

    The big model that got everyone spooked has already been demonstrated to be wildly inaccurate. Even the author is walking it back dramatically, albeit with some interesting rationale. Regional issues that impact NYC for instance should not have required other areas of the country to do similar drastic measures. Assuming the unemployment rate average for the year increases by one percent approximately 37,000 people who wouldn’t have died will. That is the real danger in the total lock down. There was never justification for it. I realize the testing fiasco created by the FDA and CDC due to silly procedures didn’t help. We were blind. And China’s behavior also added to that. You cannot accept any Chinese data, so I appreciate a poster above efforts, but if you are using Chinese numbers to support anything you might as well pick numbers out of a hat. No one should waste time reading it. It has no validity at all.

    The administration is prepared to begin advocating for county by county evaluation and disease isolation. The ramped up testing will help that. That should allow the country to mostly open up in a few weeks. The hardest hit areas are already beginning to see a decrease in acceleration and the warmer weather will further help. I will never call this a nothing burger in the sense the annual flu isn’t a nothing burger. People get sick and die. But I will accept that the shutting down of the economy was a huge over reach, the dollars spent on the aid package are money we don’t have to spend, and we are in a very precarious situation if the economy doesn’t recover quickly.

  • Rick K.

    In the interest of journalistic sourcing and objectivity (as you say, “what a real journalist does”), I want to “pick on” a characterization you made (hopefully in a good-natured way), and comment on the methodology for your numbers.

    You refer to ‘the fake Wuhan flu “pandemic.”’ While the mainstream media may be hyping it, the official classification as a pandemic was on March 11, 2020, by WHO Director-General Dr. Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus. I don’t think you intended to call his classification into question. From his statement, this was not done lightly.
    https://www.who.int/dg/speeches/detail/who-director-general-s-opening-remarks-at-the-media-briefing-on-covid-19—11-march-2020

    I would agree that the mainstream media likes to hype things to sell page views (or in the old days, papers off the newsstand). The first time I can find Dr. Tedros using the term “pandemic” was on March 9, when he said that the threat of a pandemic had become “very real. But it would be the first pandemic in history that could be controlled. The bottom line is, we are not at the mercy of the virus.” You can see he was anticipating but also trying to give us hope at the same time.
    https://www.who.int/docs/default-source/coronaviruse/transcripts/who-audio-emergencies-coronavirus-press-conference-full-09mar2020-(1).pdf
    So while he was trying to encourage governments to start mobilizing, the business-savvy parts of media decided to sell headlines.

    The data on https://ncov2019.live/data seems pretty good. If I told you it was created by a high school student in Washington state, you might find it hard to believe. (Go to the About page.) So far as I can tell, it tracks pretty well with the Johns Hopkins website. In a recent interview, I heard he is getting additional volunteers to help with the site, but basically all high school students. What they are doing is quite remarkable.

    The Johns Hopkins site is: https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/map.html
    The numbers I copied off the site at 8:47 pm PDT (11:47 pm EDT) of March 26 show 85,840 confirmed cases in the U.S. This seems to be about 10,000 higher than what you have. If I follow your methodology correctly, I think your number was 74,573, which might have been right earlier in the day. On another source, I did see a big jump in the cases for New York, probably for cases that hadn’t gotten into the web-based tracking systems until then.

    As for what the numbers represent (and I am no doctor), the seasonal flu numbers typically run from the beginning of fall to the end of winter, i.e., six months. COVID-19 in the United States did not happen until Jan 20. But the first known case of someone who had neither traveled abroad or been exposed to someone who had done so did not occur until Feb. 28. It is probably safe to assume that the person was infected in mid-February. In terms of comparing seasonal flu to COVID-19, this is 6 months vs 6 weeks. A useful number, if it could be obtained, would be: what are the US cases for seasonal flu in the first 6 weeks or 2 months of the flu season? Then compare that to COVID-19.

  • Rick K: My numbers are from when I wrote the article, early in the day. I recognized that they would change.

    All your points are reasonable. The bottom line to me remains the same. The panicked reaction by government officials and the media to this virus has been wholly unwarranted. I have never advocated doing nothing but I am very enraged that our political ruling class is using this issue as an excuse to destroy the economy — and numerous people’s lives — so that they can justify more power for themselves.

  • Ian C.

    Cotour,

    Of course do specific people always call for a global government. Doesn’t mean others follow the call. And Trump’s America isn’t the only country in the way of the NWO. You think that, say, Russia or Japan would welcome and implement it? Not even the Europeans are that stupid (only the Germans and Swedes fall for that stuff, but don’t worry, they’re being replaced with more selfish groups while we talk and soon this nonsense comes to an end).

    Lee,

    Now let me pretend to be outraged about you comparing Sweden’s socialist-feminist non-workers’ paradise with freedom-loving, risk-taking, and innovation-enabling America and only seeing the tax rate as the difference.
    America, that’s “let me do my own stuff and carry the consequences myself, both good and bad.” Sweden is “my learned helplessness leaves me passive and unable, someone please take care of me.” Which explains perhaps the differences in taxation as well.

  • Cotour

    Ian C:

    Americas Constitution is the one main stumbling block that must be fundamentally gutted and done away with for the Soroasian agenda to be instituted. No other country fundamentally matters. By Soros’s own words “The Constitution needs a few adjustments”, and he and his adherents are just the ones to accomplish that.

    And he spends his billions in his quest, if nothing else you have to admire his commitment.

    “Not even the Europeans are that stupid “. Where have you been? What do you think the EU and the countries that belong to it have been up to all of these years? Thank God it appears to be falling apart, but that does not mean that you should take your eyes off of them.

    They are even more dangerous now, they might go to such extreme measures that would push the entire world economy over the edge, only to emerge in some other formulation.

    (Hey, wait a minute, what exactly is going on in the world right now?) And if you think that the likes of a Soros and company are playing 2D chess you need your head examined.

  • Cotour

    PS: And I am not saying that they are behind this contagion, but it is not beyond reality that they might be. This contagion and its disruptive nature that cuts through all economies and has the ability to bankrupt them if nothing else represents a golden opportunity to “refinance” those who find themselves in trouble.

    You might want to look into Mr. Soros and what his specialty is and how he made his billions.

  • M Puckett

    Andrew assumes the Chinese numbers are accurate, how cute!

  • Ian C.

    Cotour,

    I’m aware of Soros and I ran often enough into fellas who’re funded and orchestrated by his various outlets. Also looked into the Soros leaks and how he connects to parliaments and NGOs, his involvement with the European refugee crisis, etc. Wonderful stuff.

    The EU is a bunch of self-serving bureaucrats on a power trip, its member states and their domestic power structures are self-serving bargainers. If they profit from closer integration, they do it (whether it serves their people is secondary). If they lose grip or it doesn’t pay off, they might disentangle a bit. I think they’re not different from the Washington swamp, just with fewer resources in the back.

    Good point re the Constitution.

  • Cotour

    Beautiful Ian C, you are aware.
    (I thought you might be sleeping, or even worse, you were a 2D unconscious Leftist chess player)

    And everything, and I mean EVERYTHING, that is discussed here on this web site depends on the existence of that one very inconvenient thing that Soros must “adjust”, the American Constitution. And that is true for the entire world as we know it. Like it or not.

    If not “IT”, then what? Chaos, subjugation, slavery and random murder? There would be no difference between our world today and the Greek or Roman empire, or North Korea, except with cars and airplanes.

  • Lee s

    @ Ian C…. Thank you for taking the bait ….
    I quote you.”“my learned helplessness leaves me passive and unable, someone please take care of me.”….. great argument, is there any chance of backing it up with… Ermm …. An actual argument? My point was that I have the same “freedoms” ( whatever that is supposed to mean!) that you guys over the pond have. But I have a higher rate of tax, and a vastly superior, much more humane system of social care than the US.
    I am not a sheep, my vote actually counts more in my democracy than yours does in the US ( We are not a 2 party pretend democracy ) , I live in a country I am acctually proud to be living in…. Sweden has not started a pointless war in over 500 years. ( That has saved us a load of cash!) I live in a country that is independent enough to vote against joining the euro.. we still have our Krona… ( As my homeland England still has the pound ) , and honestly…. There is enough nonsense going down around the world for real, without having to dream up conspiracy theories, ( not explicitly directed at you Ian), but really…. The world may be in fire … But perhaps it’s not all a plot to overthrow the US… Perhaps it’s a piece missing from you guys understanding of the world instead?

  • Heartland Patriot

    Ian C, can you please tell me why half of South Korea isn’t dead yet? Do they have a “cure” they are hiding and hoarding from the rest of the world? Are Seoul, Busan, Gunsan, and Inchon not densely populated cities? Do they have some insane number of hospital beds per capita compared to the rest of the planet? What about ventilators? Docs and nurses? You math says one thing, but South Korea’s real-world example says something else…maybe we should also talk about Germany?

  • The last 5 years, Spain has averaged about 423,000 deaths per year. 35,000 per month. So far the total in three months Covid 19 death total in Spain is 4,365. But apparently they have to convert ice rinks into morgues to handle a 4% increase.

  • Cotour

    ” Perhaps it’s a piece missing from you guys understanding of the world instead?”

    It, and this is where you do not understand, is exactly the other way around. You Lee S have it exactly backwards. I know this is unfathomable to you, but you are going to have to trust me here.

    America, the Founders of America, the only true modern era Progressives, changed the world fundamentally. And there are forces, people, agendas that exist, recognize it or not, that want to end what they were able to recognize and formulate.

    And they are generally called Communists and Globalists. You keep your head hidden in the sand.

  • Lee S

    @Cotour, I like you, your comments are generally well thought out and intelligent… But have you ever considered that perhaps there are other social models that work?, Have you ever considered that the US is not perfect? Have you ever considered that because I state that in some respects our socialist model here over the water can be better than the US model, I am not insulting you guys personally? I don’t recall once when I have suggested here that the European/Swedish/UK model of whatever might have some advantages over the American model of whatever, and have not been answered with anything but a lecture on how I am wrong. I also found the same when I was over there… Even ironic, self depricating jokes were met with aggression rather than laughter. The only conclusion I can draw is that yanks suffer from a huge amount of hubris. You guys are unarguably very good at many things, but your democracy is flawed, and your social care system leaves a lot to be desired. Not just my view, but also the rest of the world’s. This is not an insult, just the opinion of a huge amount of people who live outside your glass house.
    It is not the rest of the free world who have our heads in the sand… You who would have the free world look up to you should shake the sand from your hair and have a long look in the mirror. Occasionally suggestions are made that you might take heed of. My pinko commie lands government might not be for you guys, but that doesn’t mean your land is perfect either ( god knows, mine is far from perfect too!) A little less jumping to unneeded self defense, and a little more contemplation on the facts is needed here…. We are heading into uncharted waters right now, and there is no right or wrong…. Only time will tell.

  • sippin_bourbon

    Lee
    “You who would have the free world look up to you should shake the sand from your hair and have a long look in the mirror”

    We are too busy keeping the socialist within our borders at bay.

    We keep politely suggesting that they join you over there, but they always decline.

    Like you they are always ready to preach the gospel according to Karl. But they are few, and in the American system.

    They get upset when no one takes them seriously as well.

  • Andrew_W

    “Ian C, can you please tell me why half of South Korea isn’t dead yet?”

    East Asian cultures are less individualistic than Western culture, they’ll do what their families and societies ask of them without whining or giving the finger in response.

  • Andrew_W wrote, quite seriously, “East Asian cultures are less individualistic than Western culture, they’ll do what their families and societies ask of them without whining or giving the finger in response.”

    I post this story from today, with many videos, without further comment: “Wuhan Residents Have Had Enough Of Road Blocks – They Fight Back Against The Communist Police.”

  • Andrew_W

    “East Asian cultures are less individualistic than Western culture, they’ll do what their families and societies ask of them without whining or giving the finger in response.”

    Mr. Zimmerman, I urge you to be courageous and to either agree or disagree with my assertion.

    Your link does illustrate an important point though which you’ve apparently overlooked: The confiscation of civil liberties does eventually lead to people rebelling, this is a good reason why the across-the-board confinement being imposed by Western governments is a really bad idea, and needs to be changed to allow greater freedoms. While the Chinese might have been willing to tolerate confinement for 2 months due to their culture, it’s doubtful Westerners will be so tolerant, many will soon be asking why and publicly resisting the edicts (rather than just complaining about and resisting them at their doctors).

  • Andrew_W:

    You seem to finally be recognizing my position, from the beginning. Congratulations!

    And Westerners so far seem to be as tolerant of an across-the-board confinement, as the Chinese. Quite unfortunately, to my way of thinking. Suggests that we have become as compliant and as sheeplike as the Chinese.

  • Andrew_W

    Mr. Zimmerman, I’ve never been opposed to your position on the excesses of the government response, you’ve just created strawman about my opinion on that in your own mind. My position was and remains that decisive action needs to be taken by society to combat the spread of this disease because it’s a dangerous disease, but such action needs to be far less authoritarian.

    What you suffer from is the traditional buy-in of the hyper-partisan: If this disease or the science of AGW or some other impact on society that is incommensurable with the left-right spectrum is inconvenient to you in ideological terms you buy that issue itself as a left-right issue, creating justifications in your own mind as to why the issue itself needs to be judged as a matter of left or right, to judge it not on its own merits but in terms of what is convenient to you ideologically – you want the disease to be a nothing burger so then any government action is simpler to portray as unjustifiable leftist authoritarianism.

    “And Westerners so far seem to be as tolerant of an across-the-board confinement, as the Chinese. Quite unfortunately, to my way of thinking. Suggests that we have become as compliant and as sheeplike as the Chinese.”

    We shall see, no Western country has been under lock-down for more than a fraction of the time Wuhan was, and it’s not like those fighting the imposition with their actions are representative of most people in Wuhan, they are for now a tiny minority.

  • Lee S

    @sippin_bourbon, I see you also have no augment against my points…. Presumably you consider your homeland to be the greatest democracy in the world… Use your vote to remove those you disagree with.
    If you had taken any notice of anything I have explained regarding my political stance here over the few years I have been posting, you might have realised I am what you consider “left”, but in my world I am a “left centerist”, I’m all for free enterprise, I’m all for personal freedom, I’m also all in for taxes so the government can do its job, which is in my, and my fellow countrymens opinion is to look after it’s citizens….. Once again I reiterate, that is the job we pay them for… We trust them to do a good job with our tax money, and we can vote them away if they do a bad job. We have democracy..
    I understand that your idea of government responsibility is different to mine…. That’s just fine. But to belittle us here over the pond, to compare our democracy to the rise of your nutter far left fascist, ( mostly a US problem…. Remember I said MOSTLY) is both disingenuous and ignorent. We live, we eat and breath, we cast our votes, we work, we party, we raise our children, we post on forums to deaf ears, just like everyone else.
    The US is by no metric any better than anywhere else in the world…. I’m not saying it is worse, but seriously, and I’ve said this so many times before…. The US is not the be all and end all…. Come to Sweden… you can sleep on my couch and I will cook for you and buy you a beer. The time for huge egos is gone.

  • Cotour

    “But have you ever considered that perhaps there are other social models that work?,”

    Yes, all of my comments are based on extensively understanding most all of those models and the history that accompanies them.

    Understand that the world fundamentally changed in 1776. And you and your society are in large part a beneficiary of that change. America believe it or not is the evolution of your European culture. America is the next step for many reasons, and what you find yourself living in still clutches onto that old history and tradition. And there is plenty there that is certainly good, the people being the first on that list.

    But you must understand where America is related to the evolution of the world. What the Founders basically took to the next level, the European / Western culture. (As disturbing as that may be for you to hear.) But it is such a new cultural and governance model that it is still delicate and is threatened by what was.

    I am not even demanding you live like we live. I have stated that I respect your decisions that you have made for you and your family, and that is genuine. But just recognize where earths future lies, it is not in the past, it is in the future.

    And America and what it formulates is the future, but it may be hard to see it that way from where you are. (And as disturbing and bizarre as that may sound) Your going to have to trust me.

    And if America and what it formulates goes away, then YOU have one big fat problem. So live well where it is that you choose to live, but understand where your security and your freedom emanates from and where the future lies.

  • Lee S

    @Andrew_W, your well thought out posts will not be welcomed from most of the regular readers here…. If your not a member of the “public shooter gun association” or whatever it’s called, you get virtually shot down…. However, it’s our duty to try and inject a little social responsibility into both our hosts and the rest of the readers outlooks…. There are non so blind than those that will not see… But we must try and offer a pair of glasses regardless!

  • Cotour

    What a valiant cause, social responsibility.

  • Lee S

    @Cotour…. You are still full of hubris…. You do not realise the rest of the world has a different opinion regarding your country… You might have the biggest military, you might have the opinion that you have saved the world from distruction, you might have the opinion that the rest of the world longs to be just like the US… But unfortunately my friend, we don’t.. it’s great your experimenting with a strange type of democracy… Actors and reality TV stars can become “the most powerful man in the world”…. While I’m personally happily surprised how well trump is doing, you have absolutely no right to crow about your system…. I actually have very little knowledge about your young country… I took Greek and Roman history… Your history is still in its toddler years…. Come back when you have done a half millennia.

  • Lee S

    Quot “Cotour
    March 27, 2020 at 2:23 pm
    What a valiant cause, social responsibility.”
    Yup… It is…. If you have any empathy.
    That’s what sets us apart from apes. It’s what created civilization, and the lack of it in the US is what cheers me up that we have an ocean between us.

  • sippin_bourbon

    Lee,
    “Presumably you consider your homeland to be the greatest democracy in the world”

    No, I consider this the greatest Republic in the world. That is not ego talking, it is simply a fact.

  • Andrew_W

    “What you suffer from is the traditional buy-in of the hyper-partisan”.

    I’ll add that the hyper-partisan on the left do a similar and opposite buy-in on these issues to those on the right, and that the extent of such hyper-partisanship is higher in the US now than at most times in the past, and higher in the US now than it is in other Western countries.

  • Lee S

    My kids are finally asleep, I’ve poured myself a glass of wine, I’m playing Prince,and tomorrow is Saturday and I get a sleep in… Is there anyone who can explain to me exactly how my life is different to theirs?
    Stay safe guys… I love the banter, and wouldn’t stick around if I thought I was dealing with idiots… I might disagree with almost everyone here, but I’ll fight my corner… And I’m happy when you guys do the same! Have a great weekend!

  • Ian C.

    Lee,

    While you might have something similar to the American freedoms, how are those freedoms guaranteed (not granted) and how are they used by the people? How many people start a business vs. seeking a government job? How much risk capital is available and invested into daring new businesses (this risk capital comes from the ability to accumulate capital w/o having it taxed away and a culture of taking risk and cashing in and reinvesting it in case of success)? How is dissent against the status quo and distrust of the government treated socially? Is it encouraged or does the collectivist mindset enforce conformity? And so on.

    And what do you have against actors and reality TV stars as leading politicians? Aren’t those closer to the people sometimes than career politicians with their networks that work against the people?

    Heartland Patriot,

    I mentioned South Korea as a positive example in another thread [1]. Quote: “While some outbreak-experienced countries like South Korea reacted quickly, which allowed them to have a strict but civilized and disciplined approach, the West lost around two months and now has to lock down cities and shut down the economy in a hurry.”

    The German numbers are still a thing we need to look into later. From what I learned, Germany doesn’t test dead people for C19 (as Italy does) and it assigns cause of death to the comorbidities (e.g. pneumonia) even if infected with C19 (while Italy counts the presence of C19 as a C19 death). We have to see later how their fatalities develop, what can be attributed to their health system, their social distancing measures, and different ways of counting the affected.

    [1] https://behindtheblack.com/behind-the-black/essays-and-commentaries/today-covid-19-made-my-doctor-and-i-criminals/#comment-1078027

  • pzatchok

    Lee S

    America is distinctly different from the Greek and Roman systems of government.
    They may have been around millennia as you say but they didn’t make much improvement beyond a every limited form of democracy.
    They both had slaves for their whole history. Only the rich could vote or hold office. Their separate states freely went to war with each other. The only truly democratic thing they did was the ostracization vote. And even that was only used very infrequently and even that was found to be subject to cheating.

    We might not be perfect but we have improved on that inside our short years.

  • pzatchok

    China has had 5,000 years if top down dictatorial rule.
    Those who didn’t follow orders quickly lost their lives.
    Being ruled by a communist dictatorship is nothing new.
    Its been breed into them. Or at least independence has been breed out of them.

    The fact that a few people inside China are speaking up and arguing against the lock down speaks more about outside influence than any internal influence.

  • Cotour

    What the Greeks and Romans, and most all other civilizations lacked?

    They had no peaceful mechanism related to the transfer of power. And that is what all of the chaos in our system 2000 years later is all about and that is why the politically empowered will do anything to retain or acquire power. But we have the formal structure to do so.

    And how did they accomplish the transfer of power? Through warfare, blood shed and murder. The good old fashioned way.

  • pzatchok

    https://www.breitbart.com/politics/2020/03/27/gov-andrew-cuomo-admits-stockpile-of-thousands-of-unused-ventilators/

    And he admits the system is NOT being stressed as of yet. They are not at capacity.

    Its all a dog and pony show to get the feds to cough up some cash.

  • Cotour

    And one more point to Lee S.

    As long as everyone else in the world is as civilized as you in Sweden are then everything is fine, no problems. As long as they are as nice and civilized as you.

  • hondo

    Apocalyptic porn – it is addictive and been around for some time. If the virus doesn’t get us, then seas rising (global warming), an asteroid, zombies etc. etc.
    People like it! Eat it up! Probably be disappointed if/when it doesn’t happen.
    What’s that say about most people.
    I do know we are destroying our economy and probably inflating our currency.

  • Lee S

    @ Ian C., You should perhaps have a look at the Swedish tech start up market before talking nonsense…. I love ya dude… But if your gonna give me grief… Do it honestly… Sweden has just about the highest growth in tech in the world. ( I mostly drive a forklift, so don’t have a dog in that fight…)
    When is the great enlightenment going to arrive guys? Almost every poster here tells me how wrong we are over here… How the US is better than anything, no matter how historic, I’m about to hit the sack, Ian C. to some good music… Tomorrow I will awake, cook some form of bacon breakfast for my family, and we will all go about our day. I understand you are under the delusion that we are somehow not as “free” as you guys…. I will raise a pint to you tomorrow afternoon when I meet my friends… We will sit a sensible distance apart… We will bump elbows instead of shaking hands or hugging, and we will drink a couple of beers while discussing how come Americans feel they are so more free than we are… Even tho you guys pay less tax and have such a worse social system… We pay more tax, have a better social system ( empirically true, by any metric )
    Can any one of you guys tell me how my life is worse than yours? Can you tell me how your life is better because you live in the US? Im all ears… Please tell me!

  • Ben

    Now add to that the estimate of the number of flu cases we might expect this year and your numbers double and make this year look twice as bad as any other.

    But for some reason you act like the flu won’t exist this year. Looks like your reporting ability isn’t as great as you seem to think.

  • Ian C.

    Lee,

    I won’t downplay Swedish startup successes (and the Swedish economy and high HDI in general). And other European countries have successful startup ecosystems as well. And of course has Europe places with good living conditions (its cities are among the top in several rankings), and prosperity is rather high esp. in the West and North. But you compare Sweden with the entire US and this doesn’t work. A state-by-state comparison might make more sense and we could start with the GDP.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Comparison_between_U.S._states_and_sovereign_states_by_GDP_per_capita

    Like it or not, the higher prosperity in the US gives more options to the individual than in the EU. I’m too lazy to research it now, but I bet that the poor in the US are on average better off than the poor in the EU. And don’t come with tent cities and homeless drug addicts piling up in liberal cities in the US, then I point out the rotten poverty holes in the EU. Don’t treat rural living conditions in sparsely populated fly-over states as the norm, or I pretend that those Europoors with their donkey cars and fouling teeth are representative for Europe. And if you moan about higher inequality in America as a bad sign, I’ll explain with it’s actually good.

  • Eddie Willers
    https://behindtheblack.com/behind-the-black/essays-and-commentaries/covid-19-is-not-going-to-overwhelm-our-healthcare-system/#comment-1078067

    We oldsters have the benefit of our own, historical perspective.

    When I was a toddler, “Fallout Shelter” wasn’t a video game … it was something many people were building in their basements and backyards.

    Then there was this little disturbance known as the Cuban Missile Crisis.

    (Fortunately) I was too young to perceive that in real time … my earliest childhood memory was being irate that my cartoons were being pre-empted for the funeral of President Kennedy.

    But a memory that has stuck around, is driving up through west-central Missouri to visit uncles who farmed there, and my father pointing out the Minuteman missile silos we drove by. One of them, I found out later, was located just a mile from one of my uncles.

    Had that kind of outbreak occurred, there would have been no flattening the curve, until whole cities had been flattened.

    While the coronavirus is serious, we’ve faced bigger threats. Millennials have COVID-19 … we had 6Li2H.

  • wayne

    Prof. Jordan Peterson
    “Evil Bloody Well Exists”
    https://youtu.be/zPfFqFl31ZI
    6:32

  • Velouria226

    Some yokel wrote this:
    “You’re out of date Cotour, deaths is now 655, it’s quadrupling every week, so do nothing:
    Today: 650
    1 week: 2,600
    2 weeks: 10,400
    3 weeks: 41,600
    4 weeks: 166,400
    5 weeks: 665,600”

    This is absurd. Because he’s suggesting that the number of dead operates the same way as the infection rate. Yes, there is some exponential growth in infection so we do see numbers doubling from week to week or day to day. But this is the infection rate. Deaths do not work the same way. They separate the number of cases into mild and serious/critical. Despite the number of cases goign up exponentially the number of serious/critical grows at a much slower rate (because 80-90% of infections are mild).
    It’s been hovering around 2000 -30000 range for a week in the US despite numbers jumping in cases. And people don’t die the way they get infected. People who die are already on a list of people on serious/critical condition. Whether they live or die is not contingent on becoming infected by someone else. So there is no exponential doubling in death the way there is in infection.
    We should assume that people in critical condition may die. At least a percentage of them.
    Let’s assume though that 100% of critical cases die. That would be 2000 – 3000 cases. Who would die next week? There would be no doubling of cases because 100% would be dead. So zero would die. (Assuming That the 2000 dead was the final number of critical cases) You can’t have more people die than are even in the group of serious/critical cases.
    Realistically, some numbers of people will die from the serious/critical list and new people will be added to the serious critical list from the new cases we see. But that number is not increasing exponentially. That is the number that should be looked at if we want to determine how many may die. Not the number of cases.
    We are not going to see 10,400 dead in week two because we haven’t even seen 10,4000 serious/critical cases.

  • Ian C.

    Velouria226,

    If the number of critical cases is a rather stable percentage of those who are infected (10-20%), then the number of critical cases grows the same way the number of the infected grows. What will vary is the fatality rate, it’s rather low when the cases are treated and it’s higher when they aren’t (e.g. because the health system is overwhelmed).

    Since I haven’t seen that the fatality rate is already shrinking, my (admittedly rather simple) prediction is that by April 5 we’ll see around 11,000 C19 deaths and by April 15 it’ll be 105,000 C19 deaths. Between those two dates the delayed results of social distancing measures might kick in and show decreasing infection (and fatality) rates. Let’s hope that the measures came early enough. So by April 15 we’ll see certainly more than 10,000 dead but perhaps less than 100,000. By March 31 we’ll see around 3,600 dead by the way.

  • ChewiesMom

    I think your Winter Flu chart is off by a year. I looked on the CDC site and it shows that data starting in 2010-2011 with the last year 2018-2019; the worst year was 2017-2018. I don’t know if the numbers for 2019-2020 have been published anywhere yet.

  • A. Nonymous

    Lee,

    I recommend watching the below (or, frankly, any of his lectures).

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=u0eJK4Avk2M

    Then, check out your local and regional demographics.

    This brings me no joy, but whether things go south this year or a decade from now, Europe (and most of the world) is going to face devastation. At the same time, I can understand the isolationist attitude, even if I don’t agree with it–after 30 years of watching the US being taken for granted or denigrated, dealing with massive free-rider issues, and the stubborn NATO response to an actual Article V mobilization, I’m tired of it all, myself.

  • Davlbrown

    We are on the precipice of a significant economic catastrophe that the bureaucrats and politicians in Washington are not ramped up for or even qualified to handle. Many small businesses are poised to go under in a few short weeks. Providing over $900 per week for 39 weeks in unemployment benefits is not going to encourage Americans to go back to work, especially in light of fear mongering shelter in place sentiments. I am a consultant for trade association whose members think they may not be able to operate even if the economy starts to get back on the tracks in a couple of months. This is but one example of the embeclic response coming out of Washington, DC

  • wayne

    I would put forth the proposition that while we may be facing a medical situation, the economic fallout thereof is a direct result of primarily State actions, mandates, and “orders.” The Political fallout, is going to push us over the edge.

    Hoppewave
    “Absurdistan” The Music Video
    (so to speak)
    https://youtu.be/8CvbDOJT1ro
    4:33

  • ParisParamus

    Lee_S, you fail to realize, or at least mention a number of dynamics that call into question your claim of Swedish virtue. First, you’re apparently not a Swede, which means, to some extent, your outlook and perspective isn’t that of a Swede; hey, I felt pretty free and happy when I was living in France… Second, you fail to acknowledge that things are as good as they are in Sweden because America subsidizes Sweden in so many ways—and no, I’m not only speaking of defense, but also cultures of all kind, innovation, trade, and a number of others.

  • GWB

    with the average hospitalizations since 2011 ranging from 140,000 to 590,000
    I think you mean “range of hospitalizations”. The actual average is 446,729, with a standard deviation of almost 191,000.

    Now, we all know that the Wuhan epidemic is still in its early stages in the U.S.
    That’s one of the assumptions that has badly informed our response. I don’t think we’re as “early” in this as the doomsayers think. (Look at the ILI data from December through February.)

    I think our measures have pushed the numbers down a bit. But I think those numbers would be down on the basis of “OMG, everybody wash your hands!” and the marginal good achieved by “Shut everything down!” is minimal. (And the cost-benefit balance is decidedly on the cost side of things.)

    Oh, and NYC was always going to be an American disaster with an epidemic like this. Similarly LA, SF and Seattle. All are densely populated (strike 1), with large ethnic ghettos, particularly Chinese* (strike 2), they have massively obstructed the free market and imposed their constraints on the area (foul ball), and are infused with “No Risk allowed!” attitudes (strike 3, yer out!).

    (* Because vast numbers of “new” diseases seem to come out of China, the Chinese are very culturally tied to their homeland and visitation goes back and forth regularly, and they seem to tend to crowd together. Those last two being very bad things when we’re talking communicable diseases.)

  • wayne

    GWB–
    good stuff.

  • GWB

    hondo
    March 27, 2020 at 6:52 pm
    an asteroid… Probably be disappointed if/when it doesn’t happen.

    Well, yeah, was hoping for SMOD over the other possibilities in 2016. Got Trump instead, so not as disappointed as some.

    probably inflating our currency
    No probably about it.

  • Birdman

    There seem to be a few different discussions going on here. I’d like to comment on two of them.
    1) Will the healthcare system get “overwhelmed”?
    2) Did the federal government overreact with its shelter in place recommendations and pass unnecessary and harmful legislation?

    First I’d like to say that any argument based on previous year’s flu statistics I’m afraid is going to be off the mark. Any serious discussion about the impact of COVID19 simply MUST include information and predictions about TRANSMISSION RATES – in this case in different mitigation scenarios ranging from do nothing to full lock down. For several reasons but mostly because there is a significant period of contagiousness before symptoms present, transmission rates are much higher than the normal flu. In the past weeks the infected have likely been infecting on the average 2 to 4 other people. That means exponential growth of infections so that even if the hospitalization and ICU rate is relatively low, the areas hardest hit will reach ICU capacity quite quickly, especially considering the comparatively long average time spent by patients in ICU – around 10 days.

    So the answer to 1) is a clear yes if the definition of “overwhelmed” is that decisions will need to be made regarding to whom to ration treatment in some places (you can’t realistically move large groups of patients to less affected areas). Some will be left to die. You will begin hearing the first news stories of that within the next 3-4 days.

    Regarding point 2)…was it bad legislation that will not do what it is supposed to do? Of course. Was it necessary to allay the fears of individuals, especially those whose jobs were affected? Well, kind of. Even though this in and of itself is terrible for the economy long term, it was the trade-off for telling people they couldn’t earn a living. I’m sure there was a better way to accomplish that though.

    Are shelter in place restrictions necessary? Absolutely, yes. The transmission rate needs to be brought down as quickly as possible. How long should those restrictions remain in place? The shortest time possible due to the terrible effects they will have on the economy.

    Severely curtailing personal interactions as well as other measures such as use of masks, handwashing, etc. are absolutely critical now to reduce the transmission rate as we’re buying time until we understand the virus better, have widespread testing available, and develop a strategy to isolate the most vulnerable while allowing others to resume normal economic activity.

    I get the mistrust of the media, and the actions of the government also should always be viewed skeptically. But in my opinion there’s enough reliable information (not from China or Iran) out there now especially from countries ahead of the US in infections per capita to make reasonable predictions about what the next few weeks in the US will look like. I would be willing to listen to arguments regarding the differences between private and public healthcare (such as in the those countries ahead of the US) but I haven’t seen anything that indicates more ICU space or ventilators are available in the US.

    The US also has the greatest capacity to pull together and kick this thing’s butt, but everyone needs to understand the problem well. I encourage you all to keep reading a variety of sources, have Skype conversations or internet discussions with your peers to get all points of view and then make up your own mind.

  • davlbrown

    I personally understand some of the shelter in place directions, but severe restrictions are not reasonable for every location if you follow social distancing, hand washing and other practices. I live in a county with less than 1 infection for every 60 square miles, which is about as significant for social distancing as one can get. I am 72. I avoid high traffic public places but still going to Tractor Supply or Lowes when I need something.

    There are some good things in the legislation but the compromises that had to be made are not always effective. My clients are seasonal businesses. The Payroll Protection Loans require you to be in business on February 15th and have a payroll awt that time. Many seasonal businesses don’t open until April 1 in a normal year. So, scratch that. Fortunately, some may qualify for Economic Disaster Loans. Others have huge inventory shipments arriving with no ability to pay for them. Net 60-day terms. Their orders are near zero at this point since most have been cancelled. So, hopefully SBA loans will be available to help some of them.

  • Ben wrote: “But for some reason you act like the flu won’t exist this year. Looks like your reporting ability isn’t as great as you seem to think.”

    And for some reason Ben seems to miss the very obvious fact that my numbers include the flu numbers for this year. Looks like his reading ability is not as great as he seems to think.

  • Max

    The Chinese death’s is estimated to be 10 times what they are telling us. In an effort to find a better estimation, other methods are being utilized.
    21 million cell phones go silent…
    https://www.ibtimes.sg/china-hiding-covid-19-death-toll-21-million-cell-phones-disappeared-why-41580
    The pandemic may have been used as an opportunity to remove people with low social scores from their communities, as evidenced of videos, and the large pile of burning bodies? outside of cities as pictured by satellites. The protests are gone.
    Where in the United States, the virus excuse is used as a “Hail Mary” to undermine Trump and take over the now destroyed economy. Nearly every business is shut down, every worker furloughed or let go. Unemployment numbers are through the roof and no caseworkers showing up to process the workload. Computer systems are overwhelmed, phones go unanswered, government workers take there vacations early. Even 911 calls are going unanswered because so many police officers are under 14 day observation /Quarantine for exposure.
    Never let a crisis go to waste.
    Santa Claus came early to Washington DC, while the rest of Rome burned…

  • David Lintz

    Great information. But what I find missing is the localized comparison between the years you have displayed. From an overall US stand point I believe you are absolutely correct in your assessment that the medical system wont be taxed more than in past years. However, it may very well be that local systems, i.e. NYC, might become overwhelmed. What I would have liked to have also seen is this comparison localized for the NYC area.

    I don’t know if that data can be easily found but if it can be pointed out to me I would love to take a look.

  • David Lintz: An excellent question, one that I myself wish I could answer.

    See however this excellent comment from one of my regular readers, noting that the real question here is not how many die from COVID-19, but how many additional deaths per year it causes.

    Based on all data, which strongly suggests that the bulk of those who die are elderly and already ill, I suspect the number of additional deaths will be relatively tiny. For example, many of those killed by the Wuhan flu would just have likely been killed by the flu.

  • Lee S

    Sorry I’m late again, you guys really need to sort your time zones out! @ParisParamus, I have lived here for 20 years and hold Swedish citizenship, I think that gives me a right to comment more as a native than a tourist. 2 kids, a cat and a hamster… What more do I need to have a valid opinion?
    The fact of the matter is not one of us know how this is going to pan out… I’m a little nervous about the Swedish experiment, me and my family have been sick, so I hope we are now immune…. My family back in the UK are under lockdown… Is that better? You guys are under lockdown ( perhaps the only time you will ever agree that Sweden is more free than the US!) Who really knows? And the only honest answer to that question is “no one”…. as I have commented before… We are going to come out of this crisis a different group of animals… My socialist outlook, your capitalist outlook, any other outlook you can point to, will be changed forever… For better or worse… Life is never going to be the same … Let’s all just cross our fingers and hope it’s for the better. Stay safe my friends.

  • Lee S

    @Bob, quote “Based on all data, which strongly suggests that the bulk of those who die are elderly and already ill, I suspect the number of additional deaths will be relatively tiny. For example, many of those killed by the Wuhan flu would just have likely been killed by the flu.”
    I take my flu jab every year… I have type 1 diabetes, and high blood pressure. If I die from the wutang flu I would rather not just be a statistic to confirm your opinion… This is real Bob… I’m in the high risk group… I plan on not dying just yet, if I can help it…. I know I might be likely killed by the flu anyway, but sorry Bob, your comments are sometimes a little…. Inhumane?

  • Matt

    Robert Zimmerman,

    Sarcasm, condescension, and ad hominem attacks do not bolster your case. Quite the reverse.

    Someone with a strong argument has no rational reason to lash out at those who disagree respectfully.

    The farther I read down this comment thread, the less I trust your objectivity and judgement on this subject.

    For myself, I don’t think that the US hospital system as a whole will be overwhelmed, but I’m more concerned about it now than before I visited this page.

  • Ian C.

    Lee,

    Your country’s approach is centered around trust (that the citizens behave thoughtfully and cautiously) and thus only general recommendations and some soft restrictions are seen as necessary. Gradually they’re now tightening the restrictions as they did in other countries (e.g. mass gatherings were limited to 500, now 50, and this will go down in the future). But first, also like other countries, Sweden saw mass events, normal use of public transportation, and so on. They wanted to copy South Korea in some way, but that would require social distancing early on, a prepared population, and massive testing. None of that is present in Sweden.

    The lack of testing makes the number of infections pretty uncertain, the fatalities might provide better insight. This number will go straight up for the next three weeks.

    March 31: 300 deaths
    April 5: 1,100 deaths
    April 15: 15,000 deaths

    And then we’ll see whether you have attained herd immunity and Sweden got away with a short spike in deaths and things get better w/o reducing public life and the economy too much. It might work out, but Sweden has to ignore the outcries when the dead start piling up and continue her course. So for the better part of April you’re basically flying blind and we have to hope for the best.

    https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/sweden/

  • Lee S

    @ Ian C…. Yup… We are very litteraly flying blind here…. I joke about us being more free than the US, but who knows what the outcome will be? If Bob is correct then I have nothing to worry about, if Bob is just spouting his opinion from a position of ignorance, then perhaps I do have something to worry about…. Bob, occasionally you are a bit of a blowhard… And I’m not 100% sure of your qualifications to give medical advice… However the world has Sweden to act as a controle group. I will keep you all updated. No deaths in my social circle as of yet… My local Chinese restaurant is devoid of customers, and the local bar is pretty quiet for a Saturday… But life in the S. Household is continuing pretty much as normal… If any of us die I will let you all know.
    As the rest of Europe lives under lockdown, Sweden keeps calm and carries on

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/mar/28/as-the-rest-of-europe-lives-under-lockdown-sweden-keeps-calm-and-carries-on?

  • pzatchok

    Actually Sweden is getting more and more strict.
    Many businesses have closed.
    And today they have announced that groups will be reduced to 30 from the previous 500.
    Today they have announced that they will reduce the amount of testing and only treat those who are severe.

    All after their health minister originally announced it would never get to them.

  • Andrew_W

    In a comment above I suggested there would be 500,000 – 600,000 cases and about 20,000 US deaths in the US, as the peak for both are coming later in Italy than I would have expected, despite that country’s lock-down, I was thinking yesterday that that guestimate was too low.
    This has popped up on NBF in the last few hours and I admit is probably closer to my current thinking on what the course of the spread in the US is likely to be:

    https://www.nextbigfuture.com/2020/03/washington-health-metrics-forecasts-40000-to-160000-covid-19-deaths-for-usa.html

    They forecast

    The US will need between 130,000 and 480,000 hospital beds. The most likely is a US peak need for 232,000 beds.

    The number of cases will be about 400,000 to 1.5 million.

    USA – 40,000 to 160,000 Death range. 82,000 deaths main projection.
    New York – 5,000 to 27,000 Death range. 10,240 deaths main projection

    They project the US will need about 19,000 invasive ventilators.
    There will be a need for 35,000 ICU beds with about 15,000 new ICU beds needed.

    The USA is predicted to peak April 14, 2020.
    New York is predicted to peak on April 6, 2020.

  • Andrew_W: We shall see. I expect this prediction, like all the other predictions so far, will be way high.

  • Cotour

    From the real world:

    This is some interesting virus. Just spoke to a friend who is a fireman, 50ish, who had a weird headache, low grade fever, turned into the runs, knocked him out for a couple of days, not much more than that. Got the test and was positive. He was out driving around but wearing a mask, seems no worse for the wear. Probably gave it to his wife and his son, they seem fine for the moment.

    He must have been in Manhattan and / or a hospital related to his job and must have caught it there (?) (lots of question marks). He will when appropriate donate his blood for any antibody studies or a vaccine. And the he told me of another guy with a wife and three kids just a couple of blocks away who apparently succumbed to it.

    I have heard of a couple of others in my area who have it and are isolated and apparently doing ok, but this was the first death I heard of (Not confirmed by me at this moment)

  • Cotour

    Related to models, projections and predictions: See Marmot dam removal / time estimates for the removal of the natural fill by the river.

    They had not a clue as to the reality of it all.

  • wayne

    Cotour–
    These dam removals are big in the Midwest as well. Some times they are warranted, some times they are pure PR.
    I would put forth the proposition: If you or I had caused that amount of sediment to go into & down that river, we’d be in jail.

    Speculating wildly– I was sicker than the proverbial dog the start of February, unlike anything I have ever experienced; felt a very minor head cold coming on then it went straight to my lungs. Felt like what I imagine Malaria feels like– chills & sweats. Lasted literally 100 hours and then took me 10 days to feel ‘normal.’
    Makes One Wonder, eh?

  • Cotour

    Wayne: Happy to hear you are well now. I know you have health issues, but if it was this virus as indicated by the existence of your last message it did not kill you. Why not? I suppose you would have to be tested to see if you had the anti bodies to establish that you did or did not have it.

    “Experts” a lot of the time are just guessing and the models we see them use, just like in climate change and other areas, like the spread of or the lethality of this virus is all just that, a guess. Some more educated and accurate than others.

    This virus appears to be a bit of an unknown and is doing some extreme things to some people.

    My point about the dam was that multiple engineers and “experts” with all kinds of calculations predicted, were guessing, how long it would take for the river to remove ALL of the material that the dam consisted of.

    Months? Years?………….the material that the dam consisted of was gone over night! Wooosh.

  • wayne: Get better. And take care.

  • Ian C.

    Enjoy:

    “China ‘acting as charitable godfather to gain global power’: Farage” (14:33)
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dCwWLAlwU7c

    “Bannon on coronavirus: We have an economic inferno coming at us” (8:42)
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XpswoHa01q0

  • Andrew_W

    “China ‘acting as charitable godfather to gain global power’: Farage”
    “Bannon on coronavirus: We have an economic inferno coming at us”

    Well that just proves that Farage and Bannon are a pair of lefties!
    /sarc.

  • Andrew_W

    I’m surprised at some of the data on this site:
    https://covidtracking.com/data/

    At the moment in NZ we’re getting about a 3% positive rate on tests, that’s with the testing of only people with CLOSE contact with known cases or symptoms STRONGLY suggestive of a person having Covid-19 – and most kiwi’s are angry that the testing being carried out is far too restricted.

    But according to the site above Delaware has an 85.6%(!) rate of positive tests, for some others states the positive rates are:
    New Jersey 36%
    New York 34%
    Alabama 14%
    California 18%
    Colorado 15%
    Georgia 21%
    Indiana 15%
    Louisiana 13%
    Michigan 29%
    Oklahoma 24%

    With the US overall returning 16% positive tests.

    Obviously those are with similar testing regimes as we’re using here, with the testing of only those most likely infected. And also obviously a heck of a lot of people are not being tested who have a high possibility of being infected.

    If those figures are accurate I’m betting the number infected across the US is at least double the recorded number.

    No way is community transmission going to be controlled through so little testing, suddenly the lock-down looks far more reasonable.

    Possibly the data on that site in incomplete (though on the page “about the data” what they have sounds OK).

  • wayne

    Cotour–
    Yes, I caught your point– ref “modelling.” The wizards of smart are sometimes not so wizardly, are they?!
    (I have late-onset, non-shaking Parkinson’s, which is maintaining itself quite well on minimal meds. Plenty of room for dose escalation later.)

    Mr. Z.,
    Thank you.
    Feeling fine now from whatever bizzaro bug I had, but it whacked me down for 4 straight days, beginning of February time frame. Unlike anything I ever remember experiencing in my life, and definitely viral in nature. Did not have a fever, but constant chills/sweats.

    When this all blows over, I intend to get checked to see if I have any antibodies to covid-19.

  • Cotour

    Wayne: Im very happy to hear you are doing well, I would miss you. Who else would there be on BTB to tangentially promote “The increasing of the air pressure” over any particular offensive location and turning into a “glass parking lot” ?

    Classic! Always brings a smile to my face.

    Andrew W: I think that the numbers in reality reflect the nature of a truly open society that has massive amounts of people who desire to either be in the U.S. or immigrate to the U.S. because they know where their best interest lie. And that is the nature of a truly open, Democratic, Constitutionally based free society as it is.

    (Again, we are all “free” depending upon the society that we find ourselves a part of. No one on this planet is truly FREE, not in the context of the society we find ourselves immersed in anyway)

    Although I am surprised that NZ does not have a higher rate of infection given the number of Chinese mining interests in the country (Or is that Australia?).

    In Italy the infection rate in the North is higher apparently because the Chinese who have bought all of the top Italian design houses and have about 100K people that now live and shuttle between Northern Italy and Wuhan, China, where all of the sewing is done. Add to that an aging Italian populous and the fact that they still have a very high rate of smoking and that their hospital system is apparently unable to adapt / grow as needed to accommodate such a unique health emergency shock to the system. This all makes for a bad outcome. And I have great respect for the many Italian doctors and nurses that are being pushed way beyond their capacity. Its 24 / 7 for them.

    All healthcare workers all over the world are being tested and are being push to their max, they are to be commended. Without them and their dedication the numbers obviously would be much, much higher.

    In the end we will all somehow do what must be done and come out the other end of this experience and move into the future. And America will still lead this future. If not IT, then what? China? Russia? New Zealand?

    You intuitively know the answer as does the rest of the world. And we are all thankful for that fact.

  • This offers some useful perspective. But one difference that is crucial for comparisons to normal flu seasons is that all these flu patients hospitalized were spread across a 4 month season. They didn’t all show up at the ER in two weeks. Our resource capacity does demand that we try to flatten the curve to spread the pandemic over time. This strategy does have economic implications and costs.

  • Jason Hillyer

    There’s a lot of chat to read through that I haven’t done yet. However, I wanted to ask this quick question, for Mr. Zimmerman. I agree that the data doesn’t make sense and the hospitals shouldn’t be being overwhelmed. That is, indeed, a rational conclusion to draw from the data. However, why aren’t we taking into consideration the opinions of those who are on the ground, in these hospitals, who are telling us that there is a problem; telling us that they need more masks and beds and ventilators? Are they just flat out wrong, or is that all fake news? I don’t hear anyone saying that their hospital is fine and well prepared and that they are handling this crisis just fine. Thanks.

  • Jason Hillyer: The source I quote in this particular essay is highly unreliable. First it is reported by CNN, known for repeated news failures, sometimes because of sloppiness, sometimes because of a an irrational hatred of Trump.

    Second, the source is anonymous, something that is often very untrustworthy, and has been especially so in the past four years when quoted by news sources like CNN.

    Third, it is a single source. All other named sources in the article do not confirm its sense of panic and disaster, only worry that a disaster might happen. The old rules of journalism used to demand that you do not publish any anonymous source without multiple confirmations from other sources. CNN doesn’t bother with these rules anymore (another reason why it is what we used to call a supermarket rag, not something to be taken seriously).

    Finally, my experience in the past two decades has led me to increasingly not trust any “predictions” coming from communities that are dominated by the left, such as academia and Democratic strongholds like New York City. They repeatedly lie, fake data, tamper with information, and distort the facts to get the results they want. And in the case of the Wuhan flu, the results they want is a destroyed economy that they can use to defeat Trump in November.

    I hope this answers your question.

  • Tom J

    A little off the topic: I’d rather have Trump in office than any Democrat, but it does look like he has cynically played them with this stimulus bill, to our long term detriment. If you print and dump $2 Trillion into the economy in March, you’ll have a boom that will be in full force in November, and you’ll get the credit for it.

  • Tom J: Yup. And your point applies cynically to the Republicans in Congress also.

  • Ngrate

    While there are some good aspects of the stimulus bill, some of it is irrational. The Paycheck Protection Loan, which is supposed to help small business, and the previous H.R.6201 – Families First Coronavirus Response Act — combine to discourage employment. H.R. 6201 requires small businesses to cover 10 weeks of Family Medical Leave (which is really 12 weeks counting the two weeks of sick leave) and 80 hours of sick leave. Supposedly that money will be refunded at some point after you file your quarterly taxes. An employee is eligible if they simply have to stay home to take care of the kids due to virus- related school closures etc. as well as for medical reasons related to the virus. While many companies provide a week of paid sick leave, not to this extent and 10 weeks will blow them away. Why take this risk and hire employees when demand and cash flow is low? These businesses do not have the cash flow to cover extensive layoffs of even 25% of their labor force. Not to mention that the Democrats insisted on adding an extra $600 per week to unemployment benefits which should total over $950 per week in most states for 39 weeks. There is loan forgiveness in the PPP loan but it doesn’t add up to hire employees to sit around and do nothing when they can do better on unemployment and you don’t have to risk the obligations of 3 months of paid family medical leave. This is just more Nancy in Wonderland legislation.

    Some of the oversight of corporate bailout money is good, but the new oversight board is likely to result in many companies shunning it.

  • pzatchok

    Jason Hillyer

    Always remember the old saying. If it bleeds it leads.

    No one wants to hear good news.

    And exactly who you gearing the bad news from? politicians, workers or administrators of those very hospitals?

  • pzatchok

    Andrew_W

    Positive case numbers are meaningless. Really they are.
    That number doesn’t even represent the number of people infected. Its just a number of the people tested that show positive now. Millions could already be infected and not tested. Until everyone is tested it means nothing.

    By the time a year has passed I fully expect a 100% infection rate. Everyone will get it. Everyone.
    Just like the flu. If you have some misguided idea you can dodge it your wrong. Just like with the flu everyone will get it at least once in their lives.

    The death rate is the only real number.
    And now they are finding that covid deaths are actually taking the place of flu deaths. Those people would have died by flu are now dying by virus C19. The total number of deaths is not up by more than 1%. And that number is right along with the number for a flu virus we have no vaccine for yet.

    Nothing in the US is stressed yet except the people who believe the sky is falling.

  • Andrew_W

    pzatchok.
    What the high ratio of positive tests reveals is that the bar to be tested is high, that asymptomatic people are not being tested despite proximity to those that have tested positive.

  • pzatchok

    But it has nothing to do with the death rate at all.

  • Chrispy

    Great article! Common sense…where has it gone?

    I’m in Michigan and utilizing common sense, I’ve deduced some things. Nobody is sure when this virus started, but it’s early in December. So, we had 2 months (or close to) of open borders with China? The virus has been here for months!

    I’m 99% sure my family had this already in December and/or February. My boys both exhibited the exact symptoms in December. Then, in February, they again had all these exact symptoms, but my wife and I also had the symptoms a week after my youngest son (13) had it.

    There is an ER doctor in my neighborhood who is sure he had this in February as well.

    My point is that we are probably on the downswing of this virus, not the upswing. Everybody acts like it just got here in February or March, but it’s been here since December.

  • wayne

    Chrispy–
    I’m on the Lake Michigan coast. I don’t know exactly what illness I experienced in early February, but it was viral in nature, in the lungs, and whacked me down unlike anything I have ever experienced. (4 solid days of what-I-imagine, Malaria feels like, [chills & sweats] and then a solid 10-14 days before I felt ‘normal.’)
    Concurrently in that time period, I know of 2 other people who had a similar experience they both attributed to the flu, but did not escalate to the level of medical care.
    Totally anecdotal, but makes me wonder.

    pzatchok-
    I tend to agree you are probably more correct than not. (your comment immediately above)

    Public Service Announcement:
    [If you get severely depressed watching cable-TV, turn it off. And stay away from Drudge, holy cow, what has he been smoking?]
    Thanks to Free Enterprise:
    “Louder with Crowder” is making all his daily evening-shows on BlazeTV, available for free on his YouTube channel, starting this week.

    Just for fun…
    “when I listen to this, so do my neighbors…”

    “Dr. Trump”
    Louder with Crowder
    April 2019
    https://youtu.be/sX0Hi7fZxZ0
    2:49

  • Richard Garcia

    I don’t think that the death rate will ever exceed two percent in the USA. The more people are tested for past exposure the lower the number Will be. We all know that they would have a hard time with this group of people all at once. No Hospital is equipped to handle this. Treat like it’s a war put them in large room’s and make it easier for the staff. Normal hospital procedure must be rethought.

  • Mona

    We have treatments (plural) now. The numbers should start falling. The one doctor who is a specialist in the field of infectious diseases did not have to intubate any of his patients, all of whom had preexisting conditions. That’s pretty substantial. He said the chances of that happening were something like .000something considering their conditions. There is great hope, but the three big MSMs continue to fan the flames of fear. That, to me, is irresponsible but also criminal.

  • Cotour

    I was listening to the John Catsimitidies radio show this morning and he was interviewing a doctor.

    This doctor sited another doctor who was administering the healthcare for 30,000 I think a Hasidic Jew community and he was very successfully treating his many Covid patients with the hydroxychloroquine / Azithromycin with the addition of Zinc. Very few hospital stays or intubations or deaths. You can probably listen to it on a podcast, the doctor was nearer the 9:30 portion of the show.

    And if you remember the president early on identified this treatment as being effective against the virus. Dr. Fauci was not as enthusiastic about it but the president promoted it. I will assume because the president heard very good anecdotal stories about the therapy and was not constrained by a clinical study. And the media crucified him for it, but they are right down the middle when it comes to Trump. (Sarcasm)

    If I had it I would insist on the treatment even if it had some down side to it and that would be based on the anecdotal information. In extreme situations you must be willing to take risk.

  • Cotour

    Real world update:

    Just saw / spoke to my friend who is an ICU nurse in a major NY / Westchester hospital and I asked her about the Hydroxychloro / Z pak / zinc therapy. She has a day off and is burnt out, and is not at all looking forward to going to work next week which she understands to be the apex week.

    She says this drug cocktail is not exactly her experience, they throw everything that they have at this virus and some live, and some don’t. There does not seem to be a proven strategy that is very successful. If this virus gets a hold of you and it does not like you you have a problem.

    She says, once it plugs up your upper respiratory tract there is basically nothing more they can do, and you die. Even if they pump 3 times the air pressure into the lungs.

    And she specifically mentioned the Hasidic Jews and said that “They have to do something”. Meaning I assume that the manner in which they live is promoting this thing.

    So she is basically contradicting what the doctor this morning said. (??????)

    The real world is a female dog.

  • Andrew_W

    I suspect there’s a bit of grasping at straws or snake doctoring going on with the claims about various drugs being the new miracle against this virus, Ivermectins of all things being Australia’s current favorite.

  • Cotour

    Rep. Kevin Mcarthy being interviewed by Judge Jeanine points out that the Chinese are now attempting to leverage the needed Personal Protective Equipment that the Chinese produce into a forced “Value added” deal to buy Hawawi 5G equipment. I guess the Chinese also are on board with the “Never let a crisis go to waste” model.

    https://youtu.be/QT-238kL5dk

    And interesting, and this may just be a misspoken or misinterpreted word, but Rep. Mcarthy points out that the Chinese “Created” the virus and now the Communist party is trying to cover it up”. (?)

    Created as in they allowed this “wet” market to exist where the virus allegedly was transmitted from a bat to a human and de facto “Created” the virus? But as I understand it it has been established by the female researcher that the laboratory was in fact working on the bat virus and the bats in question were from 600 miles away and were not being sold in the Wuhan market. That is an inconsistency.

    To my mind through the evidence that has been revealed, the Civd19 virus existed, but it existed within the laboratory and not the market.

    I would like Rep. Mcarthy to clarify that statement, in detail.

    One poorly chosen word? Or an indication of something else? The technical papers and the researchers seem to be indicating something other than the government story line. Both governments.

    Always remember that there are two conversations underway at all times. One is the Pedestrian Realm conversation, and the second is the Political Realm conversation. Where the actual truth of the matter lies is to IMO be determined.

    “Strategy Over Morality describes a two-tiered “conversation” between a Public and their Empowered Leadership where the Public believes there is only a single, no tiered conversation occurring and that single conversation is assumed by the Public to relate to the Public’s morality and truth model perspective. ”

    The two governments operate and communicate in the Political Realm where their “Truth” is related to strategy and not necessarily the Public Realm truth reality.

  • Cotour

    An adjustment :

    “To my mind through the evidence that has been revealed, the Covid19 virus existed, it existed within the laboratory for sure, and not the market for sure.”

  • wayne

    Andrew_W–
    Ivermectin–discovered in the 70’s, approved in the USA in the 1980’s.
    An “anti-parasitical,” –dog owners will recognize it as “Heartguard.”

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