Eleventh Starship/Superheavy a complete success
Starship and Superheavy during ascent today.
On the eleventh orbital test flight today of Starship/Superheavy, SpaceX basically achieved all its engineering goals, with both Superheavy and Starship completing their flights as planned, with Superheavy doing a soft vertical splashdown in the Gulf of Mexico, and Starship doing a soft vertical splashdown in the Indian Ocean.
The Superheavy flown was on its second flight, having flown on test flight #8. Of its 33 Raptor engines, 24 had flown previously. In returning, it successfully used a new configuration of engine burns, first firing thirteen engines, then six, then three.
More significant was Starship’s flight. The engineers had purposed left tile off in some locations that would experience the greatest heat during re-entry, to find out if the ship could survive a loss of those tiles. It did, and did so in a truly remarkable manner, always flying in a controlled manner, even as it attempted a radical and previously untried banking maneuver as it approached the ocean in order to simulate a return to the launch tower chopsticks at Boca Chica.
Prior to splashdown and during its coast phase, Starship once again successfully tested the deployment of eight dummy Starlink satellites, as well as a relight of one of its Raptor engines to demonstrate it will be able to do a planned de-orbit burn once it enters a full orbit on future test flights.
Once again, the word to describe this flight is remarkable. While no else has yet been able to recover a first stage and reuse it, SpaceX has been doing it with its Falcon 9 for almost a decade, and doing it hundreds of times.
And now it has twice reused a Superheavy booster, out of only eleven test launches. Based on this and the last test flight, the company will almost certainly begin reusing Starship prototypes during next year’s orbital test flights, when it will begin flying full orbits using its third version of Starship, including returns to Boca Chica for chopstick tower catches. Furthermore, expect the deployment of real Starlink satellites on those missions.
The next mission should likely take place close to the end of this year, and it should likely be followed by additional flights about every two months.
“Proclaim liberty throughout all the land unto all
the inhabitants thereof.” Photo credit: William Zhang
While politicians and media swamp creatures focus on the relatively inconsequential race to do an Apollo-like manned landing on the Moon, the real American space program is being run privately by SpaceX, and its goal is to not only go to Mars, but to do so in a manner that will quickly establish a human colony. Along the way the company will help facilitate that government space program, but only as it helps SpaceX learn better how to get humans to Mars.
Most significantly, SpaceX is doing its space program entirely on its own dime. It is being financed by the revenues coming in to the company from the now more than seven million subscribers to Starlink. And those numbers will only rise with time, as Starship begins launching the next generation of satellites with capabilities that will dwarf all of SpaceX’s competitors.
Once again, freedom, private enterprise, and the American dream wins. May all humans someday live under rules that will allow them the same possibilities.
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The reentry tiles performed like never before too. No burn throughs that I could see, very little tile protection delamination and the engine bay area looked to have come through in fine shape. I did notice one engine out during either the 1st stage landing burn or the boost back burn. But with all of the engines sitting in reserve, this has to be a minor issue. And we saw a picture-perfect demo of the Starlink dispenser system. A near perfect mission profile indeed.
A great day with great results.
But I think the cadence of Starship launches next year will considerably exceed one every two months. Flight 12, as you note, is most likely a couple of months off, but Super Heavy 18, the first of the V3 boosters, should be caught after flight and should also be in much better shape than any of the caught V2 boosters. Given that Pad 2 is also designed to handle much faster turn-arounds than Pad 1 has been able to do, the main thing limiting Pad 2 cadence will be the time it takes to truck in propellant. Once the now-under-construction air separation plant comes on-line, 80% of truck-based propellant deliveries go away allowing a radical jump in flight cadence.
Then there is the LC-39A Starship launch pad which should be completed early in 1Q 2026. That site should also contribute materially to the 2026 Starship launch cadence using Super Heavies and Starships barged over from Starbase. By 2Q or 3Q 2026, Pad 1 at Starbase should be rebuilt to match Pad 2 and the LC-39A Starship pad and can add to the 2026 Starship cadence in the back half of next year. Methane refinement facilities at both Starbase and KSC/Canaveral will enable further increases to cadence. By year-end 2026, Starship launch cadence may well exceed one every two weeks.
Year-end 2026 is also when the Gigabays at both Starbase and Roberts Road come on-line. 2027 should see the completion of two additional Starship pads at LC-37. By year-end 2027, Starship launch cadence will probably exceed that of the Falcons – and from more pads, 5 vs. 4.
Tom,
Yeah, there was one engine-out in the middle ring on the Super Heavy boostback burn. But it lit right up for the landing burn.
Flight twelve will almost certainly not be this year, and I would not be at all surprised to see it as late as March. There is an enormous amount of work still to be done to get either launch pad ready for the next version ship and booster. But once they get the ground side operational, I expect flight cadence will be high.
From the very first Starship re-entry, it was amazing to have real-time video during the hottest parts of re-entry.
Remember on all of the Mercury, Gemini, Apollo capsule re-entry burns, where the plasma generated off of the heat shield caused 3-5 minutes of blackout? For several reasons, and especially because there are already thousands of Starlink satellites in place, we get to watch the entire Starship re-entry burn.
Once again, Robert Heinlein is smiling down from Heaven.