Scroll down to read this post.

 

Readers!

 

The time has come for my annual short Thanksgiving/Christmas fund drive for Behind The Black. I must do this every year in order to make sure I have earned enough money to pay my bills.

 

For this two-week campaign, I am offering a special deal to encourage donations. Donations of $200 will get a free autographed copy of the new paperback edition of Genesis: The Story of Apollo 8, while donations of $250 will get a free autographed copy of the new hardback edition. If you desire a copy, make sure you provide me your address with your donation.

 

As I noted in July, the support of my readers through the years has given me the freedom and ability to analyze objectively the ongoing renaissance in space, as well as the cultural changes -- for good or ill -- that are happening across America. Fourteen years ago I wrote that SLS and Orion were a bad ideas, a waste of money, would be years behind schedule, and better replaced by commercial private enterprise. Only now does it appear that Washington might finally recognize this reality.

 

In 2020 when the world panicked over COVID I wrote that the panic was unnecessary, that the virus was apparently simply a variation of the flu, that masks were not simply pointless but if worn incorrectly were a health threat, that the lockdowns were a disaster and did nothing to stop the spread of COVID. Only in the past year have some of our so-called experts in the health field have begun to recognize these facts.

 

Your help allows me to do this kind of intelligent analysis. I take no advertising or sponsors, so my reporting isn't influenced by donations by established space or drug companies. Instead, I rely entirely on donations and subscriptions from my readers, which gives me the freedom to write what I think, unencumbered by outside influences.

 

Please consider supporting my work here at Behind the Black. You can support me either by giving a one-time contribution or a regular subscription. There are four ways of doing so:

 

1. Zelle: This is the only internet method that charges no fees. All you have to do is use the Zelle link at your internet bank and give my name and email address (zimmerman at nasw dot org). What you donate is what I get.

 

2. Patreon: Go to my website there and pick one of five monthly subscription amounts, or by making a one-time donation.
 

3. A Paypal Donation or subscription:

 

4. Donate by check, payable to Robert Zimmerman and mailed to
 
Behind The Black
c/o Robert Zimmerman
P.O.Box 1262
Cortaro, AZ 85652

 

You can also support me by buying one of my books, as noted in the boxes interspersed throughout the webpage or shown in the menu above.


Are launch prices up, or is the demand continuing to be high?

According to a Space News yesterday, high demand and inflation have resulted in an overall increase in launch prices in recent months.

At the recent Satellite 2023 conference, industry officials said they saw evidence of growing prices in the last year. Growing demand along with a constrained near-term supply that some have dubbed a “global shortage” is a factor, they say, along with inflation that has remained historically high for more than a year.

The only evidence of this increase that the article presents however is a 10% increase in SpaceX’s launch price, which the company claims is almost entirely due to inflation, not demand. Furthermore, this increase still leaves SpaceX’s launch prices well below the lowest prices that other launch companies can yet offer, which means the competition can’t really raise its prices significantly.

The important take-away from the article is not that the cost of rockets has gone up, but that the demand remains very high, which bodes well for the new startups trying to enter the market. For example, the article notes that the next SpaceX smallsat launch opportunity is 2025. There thus remains plenty of business for the many new rocket companies trying to enter the market in the next two years.

Genesis cover

On Christmas Eve 1968 three Americans became the first humans to visit another world. What they did to celebrate was unexpected and profound, and will be remembered throughout all human history. Genesis: the Story of Apollo 8, Robert Zimmerman's classic history of humanity's first journey to another world, tells that story, and it is now available as both an ebook and an audiobook, both with a foreword by Valerie Anders and a new introduction by Robert Zimmerman.

 

The print edition can be purchased at Amazon. from any other book seller, or direct from my ebook publisher, ebookit. The ebook is available everywhere for $5.99 (before discount) at amazon, or direct from my ebook publisher, ebookit. If you buy it from ebookit you don't support the big tech companies and the author gets a bigger cut much sooner.


The audiobook is also available at all these vendors, and is also free with a 30-day trial membership to Audible.
 

"Not simply about one mission, [Genesis] is also the history of America's quest for the moon... Zimmerman has done a masterful job of tying disparate events together into a solid account of one of America's greatest human triumphs."--San Antonio Express-News

8 comments

  • Gary

    Based on conjecture, it would seem SpaceX’s main constraint is in launch facilities rather than boosters. If they somehow come up with more launch locations, they might be able to increase their supply..

  • James Street

    Elon Musk @elonmusk
    Replying to
    @SciGuySpace
    Provided there is no serious launch anomaly, SpaceX will deliver 80% of Earth’s payload to orbit this year.
    Not counting Starship.
    9:41 AM · Mar 20, 2023
    https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1637856860190433284

  • Richard M

    There is *definitely* a lot of room for additional medium-lift capacity!

    I’m more skeptical that any of these small-class launchers can close a business case now, though.

  • Col Beausabre

    I don’t know about launch prices, but lunch prices sure are up due to Bidumb’s “temporary” inflation

  • Joe

    It would be nice to get some competition going in the marketplace. With the exception of Rocket Lab and Firefly, there really isn’t much in the way of rides. What I don’t understand is that if the demand is so high, why aren’t companies increasing their launch cadence?

    I could really use an added launch to someone’s manifest right now.

  • Joe: I think the problem is that until SpaceX and Rocket Lab proved that commercial space could do this fast and cheaply, no one else was trying. Since then a lot of new players are trying to get off the starting line, but it takes time to build a new rocket and test it.

    Meanwhile, the old rocket companies –ULA and Arianespace — don’t have the culture or inclination to switch gears and build cheap fast rockets. Expect little from them.

    The result is we are essentially in the lull before the storm. In five years I expect you will begin to have lots of launch options.

  • geoffc

    Gary: Bottleneck is actually landing facilities.

    ASDS needs 3+ days to get out, and 3+ days to get back. Only 3 (2 East Coast, 1 West coast).

    They seem able to launch faster if they have the ASDS available, from SLC-40.

    LC-39A is slower, since a F-Heavy means swicthing around the launch table which is non-trivial. A CRS cargo or Crew mission means changing out the head of the TEL.

    If you look, SLC-40 is launching at an astonishing rate, while LC-39A is lagging a lot. Due to these switches and govt payloads needing more ‘care’.

  • pzatchok

    My thought is pretty basic. As the price per pound comes down the demand will go up. More people will be able to get into the game that way.

    But one of the real limits will be regulations and orbits available. Orbital costs will mainly be priced by their height and thus possible time in orbit.

Readers: the rules for commenting!

 

No registration is required. I welcome all opinions, even those that strongly criticize my commentary.

 

However, name-calling and obscenities will not be tolerated. First time offenders who are new to the site will be warned. Second time offenders or first time offenders who have been here awhile will be suspended for a week. After that, I will ban you. Period.

 

Note also that first time commenters as well as any comment with more than one link will be placed in moderation for my approval. Be patient, I will get to it.

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *