Ariane 6 might be in trouble
Capitalism in space: Arianespace today announced that they will not be able to begin full production of their next generation rocket, Ariane 6, unless they get four more contracts from the partners in the European Space Agency.
With the maiden flight of the Ariane 6 now 18 months away (in July 2020), Arianespace CEO Stéphane Israël said the company had anticipated signing a manufacturing contract with ArianeGroup in the second part of last year to begin production beyond the first rocket.
So far, European public entities have purchased three Ariane 6 missions — two from the European Commission for launching Galileo navigation satellites, and one from France for the CSO-3 military imaging satellite — but have not committed to the number envisioned at the start of the Ariane 6 program in 2014.
“We are confident it will happen,” Israël said of the remaining government missions. “But it is not done yet. We are working in this direction. It is now quite urgent because industry has anticipated the manufacturing of these first launchers, but now we need these institutional contracts to fully contractualize the first Ariane 6s.”
I wonder if the fact that the cost for an Ariane 6 launch is expected to be remain higher than a comparable SpaceX launch is the reason they are having trouble getting a commitment from their European partners. Why buy this rocket, when you can get the same service for less?
The support of my readers through the years has given me the freedom and ability to analyze objectively the ongoing renaissance in space, as well as the cultural changes -- for good or ill -- that are happening across America. Four years ago, just before the 2020 election I wrote that Joe Biden's mental health was suspect. Only in this year has the propaganda mainstream media decided to recognize that basic fact.
Fourteen years ago I wrote that SLS and Orion were a bad ideas, a waste of money, would be years behind schedule, and better replaced by commercial private enterprise. Even today NASA and Congress refuse to recognize this reality.
In 2020 when the world panicked over COVID I wrote that the panic was unnecessary, that the virus was apparently simply a variation of the flu, that masks were not simply pointless but if worn incorrectly were a health threat, that the lockdowns were a disaster and did nothing to stop the spread of COVID. Only in the past year have some of our so-called experts in the health field have begun to recognize these facts.
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Capitalism in space: Arianespace today announced that they will not be able to begin full production of their next generation rocket, Ariane 6, unless they get four more contracts from the partners in the European Space Agency.
With the maiden flight of the Ariane 6 now 18 months away (in July 2020), Arianespace CEO Stéphane Israël said the company had anticipated signing a manufacturing contract with ArianeGroup in the second part of last year to begin production beyond the first rocket.
So far, European public entities have purchased three Ariane 6 missions — two from the European Commission for launching Galileo navigation satellites, and one from France for the CSO-3 military imaging satellite — but have not committed to the number envisioned at the start of the Ariane 6 program in 2014.
“We are confident it will happen,” Israël said of the remaining government missions. “But it is not done yet. We are working in this direction. It is now quite urgent because industry has anticipated the manufacturing of these first launchers, but now we need these institutional contracts to fully contractualize the first Ariane 6s.”
I wonder if the fact that the cost for an Ariane 6 launch is expected to be remain higher than a comparable SpaceX launch is the reason they are having trouble getting a commitment from their European partners. Why buy this rocket, when you can get the same service for less?
The support of my readers through the years has given me the freedom and ability to analyze objectively the ongoing renaissance in space, as well as the cultural changes -- for good or ill -- that are happening across America. Four years ago, just before the 2020 election I wrote that Joe Biden's mental health was suspect. Only in this year has the propaganda mainstream media decided to recognize that basic fact.
Fourteen years ago I wrote that SLS and Orion were a bad ideas, a waste of money, would be years behind schedule, and better replaced by commercial private enterprise. Even today NASA and Congress refuse to recognize this reality.
In 2020 when the world panicked over COVID I wrote that the panic was unnecessary, that the virus was apparently simply a variation of the flu, that masks were not simply pointless but if worn incorrectly were a health threat, that the lockdowns were a disaster and did nothing to stop the spread of COVID. Only in the past year have some of our so-called experts in the health field have begun to recognize these facts.
Your help allows me to do this kind of intelligent analysis. I take no advertising or sponsors, so my reporting isn't influenced by donations by established space or drug companies. Instead, I rely entirely on donations and subscriptions from my readers, which gives me the freedom to write what I think, unencumbered by outside influences.
Please consider supporting my work here at Behind the Black.
You can support me either by giving a one-time contribution or a regular subscription. There are five ways of doing so:
1. Zelle: This is the only internet method that charges no fees. All you have to do is use the Zelle link at your internet bank and give my name and email address (zimmerman at nasw dot org). What you donate is what I get.
2. Patreon: Go to my website there and pick one of five monthly subscription amounts, or by making a one-time donation.
3. A Paypal Donation:
5. Donate by check, payable to Robert Zimmerman and mailed to
Behind The Black
c/o Robert Zimmerman
P.O.Box 1262
Cortaro, AZ 85652
You can also support me by buying one of my books, as noted in the boxes interspersed throughout the webpage or shown in the menu above. And if you buy the books through the ebookit links, I get a larger cut and I get it sooner.
Because Arianespace, like Airbus, isn’t a company, it’s a jobs program. Don’t worry, the politicians will find some “vitally needed” missions “that must be funded now” Look for complaints from the EU to the WTO about “unfair competition” from the US (which is how they justified their subsidies to airbus, that USAF purchases of 2,000 B-47’s, 700 B-52s and 800 KC-135’s were “subsidies” to Boeing….somehow I was under the mistaken belief that purchases freely negotiated between buyer and seller that resulted in a tangible good being transferred were something called “sales”)
Col Beausabre,
You wrote: “(…somehow I was under the mistaken belief that purchases freely negotiated between buyer and seller that resulted in a tangible good being transferred were something called ‘sales’)”
I have had arguments, including at least one here at BtB, that SpaceX’s government sales are in reality subsidies. Apparently, many people believe that any sale that a company makes to its government is in actuality a subsidy to that company. Thus, Arianespace’s subsidies are far, far higher than the hundred-million or so euros that it gets in subsidies — er — direct funds for no specifically contracted services provided, each year. Also, ULA and most U.S. defense contractors run almost exclusively on subsidies. (Don’t even get me started on the various forms of welfare handed out (read: “subsidies to individuals”) that keeps people poor, meaning they have incentive to not contribute to the production side of the economy.)
It becomes a very different world, once the definition of subsidy changes from the dictionary definition.
https://www.dictionary.com/browse/subsidy
Part of the problem may simply be ESA partners moving at the Speed Of Bureaucracy.
I think the political support *does* remain among key partners to keep Arianespace afloat as an “indigenous” launch capability – and of course, as a key jobs provider. But the most important ESA partners (Germany, France, Italy, UK) all have very big political fish to fry right now.
SpaceX’s advantage is that it is less dependent now on government contracts. The majority of its launches in 2018 and 2017 were in fact commercial clients, not government. That customer base diversification leaves it less vulnerable than any competitor to the vagaries of government programs. It also doesn’t require any new launcher to remain competitive for the next decade – the BFR/Starship would be a nice thing to have, but SpaceX’s survival does not depend on it.
A company can sell a product or service to a government and it still be considered a subsidy. That doesn’t mean the entire price paid is the subsidy. There are any number of things associated with the space program, even COTS, that could be considered a subsidy. But all subsidies are not created equal and they don’t all have the same types of effects. Rather than get into the weeds about whether or not something is a subsidy, it is better to focus on how competitive these products and services are and if there is a competitive advantage/disadvantage due to government.
Don’t worry they will make it up in volume.
pzatchok-
Most excellent!
tangentially—
“Mankiw’s 10 principles of economics, translated for the uninitiated”
Yoram Bauman [aka the “Stand Up Economist.”]
https://youtu.be/VVp8UGjECt4
5:20
The Theory of Interstellar Trade
Paul Krugman
“This article extends interplanetary trade theory to an interstellar setting. It is chiefly concerned with the following question: how should interest charges on goods in transit be computed when the goods travel at close to the speed of light? This is a problem because the time taken in transit will appear less to an observer traveling with the goods than to a stationary observer. A solution is derived from economic theory, and two useless but true theorems are proved.”
http://www.standupeconomist.com/pdf/misc/interstellar.pdf