Aviation Week looks at the launch challenges facing SpaceX over the next two years.
Aviation Week looks at the launch challenges facing SpaceX over the next two years.
Though it is very clear SpaceX has a tough schedule of launches coming up, with much of the future of American aerospace riding on their success, this article is strangely hostile to the company. There is no doubt the company has fallen behind schedule, but the list of customers who have been willing to commit to the company is quite impressive, especially considering that SpaceX literally didn’t exist six years ago.
I’ll make several predictions:
- SpaceX will experience further launch delays.
- SpaceX will even have one launch failure in the next two years.
- SpaceX will nonetheless succeed, because its successes will far exceed the failures, and they are clearly offering a better product for less money.
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In 2020 when the world panicked over COVID I wrote that the panic was unnecessary, that the virus was apparently simply a variation of the flu, that masks were not simply pointless but if worn incorrectly were a health threat, that the lockdowns were a disaster and did nothing to stop the spread of COVID. Only in the past year have some of our so-called experts in the health field have begun to recognize these facts.
Your help allows me to do this kind of intelligent analysis. I take no advertising or sponsors, so my reporting isn't influenced by donations by established space or drug companies. Instead, I rely entirely on donations and subscriptions from my readers, which gives me the freedom to write what I think, unencumbered by outside influences.
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Aviation Week looks at the launch challenges facing SpaceX over the next two years.
Though it is very clear SpaceX has a tough schedule of launches coming up, with much of the future of American aerospace riding on their success, this article is strangely hostile to the company. There is no doubt the company has fallen behind schedule, but the list of customers who have been willing to commit to the company is quite impressive, especially considering that SpaceX literally didn’t exist six years ago.
I’ll make several predictions:
- SpaceX will experience further launch delays.
- SpaceX will even have one launch failure in the next two years.
- SpaceX will nonetheless succeed, because its successes will far exceed the failures, and they are clearly offering a better product for less money.
Readers!
Please consider supporting my work here at Behind the Black. Your support allows me the freedom and ability to analyze objectively the ongoing renaissance in space, as well as the cultural changes -- for good or ill -- that are happening across America. Fourteen years ago I wrote that SLS and Orion were a bad ideas, a waste of money, would be years behind schedule, and better replaced by commercial private enterprise. Only now does it appear that Washington might finally recognize this reality.
In 2020 when the world panicked over COVID I wrote that the panic was unnecessary, that the virus was apparently simply a variation of the flu, that masks were not simply pointless but if worn incorrectly were a health threat, that the lockdowns were a disaster and did nothing to stop the spread of COVID. Only in the past year have some of our so-called experts in the health field have begun to recognize these facts.
Your help allows me to do this kind of intelligent analysis. I take no advertising or sponsors, so my reporting isn't influenced by donations by established space or drug companies. Instead, I rely entirely on donations and subscriptions from my readers, which gives me the freedom to write what I think, unencumbered by outside influences.
You can support me either by giving a one-time contribution or a regular subscription. There are four ways of doing so:
1. Zelle: This is the only internet method that charges no fees. All you have to do is use the Zelle link at your internet bank and give my name and email address (zimmerman at nasw dot org). What you donate is what I get.
2. Patreon: Go to my website there and pick one of five monthly subscription amounts, or by making a one-time donation.
3. A Paypal Donation or subscription:
4. Donate by check, payable to Robert Zimmerman and mailed to
Behind The Black
c/o Robert Zimmerman
P.O.Box 1262
Cortaro, AZ 85652
You can also support me by buying one of my books, as noted in the boxes interspersed throughout the webpage or shown in the menu above.
>…because its successes will far exceed the failures, and they are clearly offering a
> better product for less money.
The first would be a change for them you shouldn’t expect — so’s the secound really. They are drifting into being a high cost, high risk provider -with a very high failure rate across the board.
There is no guarantee that they are going to build a better product. I personally predict that when NASA’s manned spaceflight requirements become applicable to them, the SpaceEx product will suddenly be deemed far inferior to that of either Boeing or Lockheed.
Interesting article. Thanks for the link.
I guess one person’s “strangely hostile” is another person’s honest reporting.
While they are not cheerleading (which seems to be the default Internet position) for Space X, they merely reported on the facts of the situation.
>.. they are not cheerleading (which seems to be the default Internet position) for Space X …
Sadly true (and as well for CBS on a article about Musk this evening). Its all reminding me of folks before the dot com bubble days – unreasoning enthusiasm, regardless of the facts.
I’m not sure if its the Heinleinian romance of the idea, or desperation.
Well let’s see how they do with the scheduled April launch to supply the ISS – if that comes off well, it could allay a lot of the fears. I for one hope they succeed…
Its going to take a lot more then a luck launch to quell fears, much less compensate for their track record so far. They have become the poster child in congress on why COTS and CCDev – and by extension any commercialized launch -is a stupid and dangerous idea.
I think it worth a caveat to point out that the poster-child status doesn’t reflect the eventual reality that spaceflight can’t always be governmental in scope. But the Congress certainly feels that way when SpaceEx just keeps missing milestones and making mistakes under the aegis of a government contract.
Well, everyone should keep in mind that NASA has missed multiple deadlines over the years – there was an article not long ago that detailed how we could’ve had Alan Shepard in space before the Russians sent Gagarin, but delays related to safety concerns caused us to “lose” the race, though, of course, we ultimately “won” it with Apollo. And remember the disastrous Apollo 1 fire that killed Grissom & 2 other astronauts & delayed Apollo almost 2 years. Not excusing any delays or mistakes by SpaceX, but let’s face it, it’s a dangerous business, sometimes not everything goes as planned & safety of the human crew must be the #1 priority, even if it leads to delays. I think Congress understands that as well – it’s not like delays in manned spacelflight would be anything they hadn’t seen before. I think we’ll have a little better handle on things after this next COTS demo flight, whichever way it goes (hopefully successful)…