Belarus willing to remerge with Russia

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February 16, 2019 8:45 pm Robert Zimmerman

The Russian empire resurgent: Belarus’s leader yesterday said his country is now willing to re-unite with Russia.

Putin has built his reputation as the man who added territory to the Russian Federation, not one who allows it to be taken away. However, there is a higher calling in a formal union of the two countries. It seems the Kremlin may believe that upon such a real union, the Russian constitution becomes ‘invalid’ and guess what, the new country needs a new president – none other than Vladimir Putin! Those pesky term limits of the old constitution will no longer be a problem.

“The two of us could unite tomorrow, no problem,” Lukashenko said in a video shared by a Komsomolskaya Pravda tabloid Kremlin reporter on Twitter Friday, reported The Moscow Times.

Russia has been applying strong pressure to force Belarus back into its fold, and it appears that pressure is working. And as the article correctly notes, nations neighboring Russia should be prepared for the same treatment.

11 comments

William Barton
February 17, 2019 at 3:00 pm
Belarus was never really an independent country. The closest it came was probably the Medieval Principality of Polotsk, 900 years ago. White Russian was an important language, especially when used in the Polish-Lithuanian Commonwealth, but it’s not the only important language never to have had its own country. Low German was the language of the Hanseatic League, but there was never a country called Low-Germany. Back when the Soviet Union was on the verge of breaking up, I wondered if the successor government would try to hold onto the main Slavic components (Russia, Ukraine, Belarus, and the northern half of Kakakhstan). I was a little suprised when it fractured along the old SSR borders and have been wondering how long that would last.
mike shupp
February 17, 2019 at 5:01 pm
I have to wonder — Putin’s been Premier or President of Russia since about 2000, and he’s 66 years old — which isn’t young, for all the photographs of the bare-chested man chopping logs and wrestling bears and shooting down wolves in the middle of Siberian winters. And it’s not as if your typical … uh … Strong National Leader … has much chance of handing down power to a personally chosen heir. In fact the only contemporary examples I can think of are Assad in Syria — and we know how well that’s going! — and the Kim dynasty in North Korea.

Granted, as an English-speaking American, I’m not getting what Russians would view as a “friendly” or “objective” view of their society, but it doesn’t strike me that Russia is particularly well run or that the paths to political power are particularly clear. And what I find myself wondering about is who takes over after Putin dies? How smooth and orderly (i.e., blood-free) will that transition be? and how important will Russia be as a European power in the years after that transition? And of course, what will be the impact on ordinary Russian citizens, and on the rest of the world?
Robert Zimmerman
February 17, 2019 at 5:19 pm
mike shupp wrote, “And what I find myself wondering about is who takes over after Putin dies?”

This is a really great question that has not been given the attention it deserves, especially because Putin’s power plays to maintain control have essentially destroyed the constitutional framework put in place by Yeltsin before him. There is no reliable system for picking future leaders. It will be a brutal power struggle, reminiscent of the world of the bearded Spock.
pzatchok
February 18, 2019 at 2:47 am
“the bearded Spock”

Mow that’s a classic reference.

Try episode 3

https://www.startrekcontinues.com/episodes.html
wayne
February 18, 2019 at 3:08 am
pzatchock-
ya know, that’s actually a fairly good series! I’ve seen more of these than the new CBS variant.

pivoting–
The evil Captain Janeway
https://youtu.be/TWfSvBGtYYI
3:23
Col Beausabre
February 18, 2019 at 6:00 am
I wonder if we need a corollary to Godwin’s Law – “The probability that the longer discussions in scientific oriented blogs continue the probability they will turn into discussions of Star Trek approaches 1”

To my mind, the conditions of in post-Putin Russia will be those proposed by Thomas Hobbes in “Leviathan” in the 17th Century – “A war of all against all”
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Leviathan_(Hobbes_book)
William Barton
February 18, 2019 at 8:38 am
Since Peter the Great, Russia has consciously modeled itself on France, so it’s possible it might wind up in the same place eventually, after more convulsions. I think a lot depends on what happens with Siberia and northern Kazakhstan. The Russian colonization of western Siberia and what’s called the Russian Far East was a lot bigger than the French settlements on the coast of Algeria. The only stamp France put on its possessions (other than Quebec) was leaving a corrupt Francophone native elite behind (remeber how French West Africa used to dominatre the continent?).
pzatchok
February 18, 2019 at 9:25 am
I don’t know, but does Putin have a son?

I can not see the Russians ‘electing’ a woman.

If Putin is not quietly the richest man in Russia by now then he is not doing something right. those riches should be able to buy the presidency again for the person he chooses.
commodude
February 18, 2019 at 9:55 am
As to succession, look to the bench in the internal security apparatus, the FSB, the “reformed” KGB.

The immediate lieutenants in the apparatus are both 1 year older than Vlad, and while it wouldn’t be unusual for the Soviets to elect an older premier than the one who just left office, in the case of Vlad;s successor it would be curious.

I would be VERY surprised if Vlad’s successor hasn’t already been fingered. It just wouldn’t be in keeping with their character politically.
wayne
February 18, 2019 at 7:51 pm
Col Beausabre—
Good one.

Intro to In A Mirror Darkly (intro)
ST: Enterprise
https://youtu.be/qXw6hC7hxBA
3:03
wayne
February 18, 2019 at 10:49 pm
“You don’t have Idea’s, Idea’s have You”
Jordan Peterson (excerpted from “Maps of Meaning 2016: The Story and it’s transformation.”
https://youtu.be/XieOdyVThLU
1:32

Belarus willing to remerge with Russia

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