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Readers! A November fund-raising drive!

 

It is unfortunately time for another November fund-raising campaign to support my work here at Behind the Black. I really dislike doing these, but 2025 is so far turning out to be a very poor year for donations and subscriptions, the worst since 2020. I very much need your support for this webpage to survive.

 

And I think I provide real value. Fifteen years ago I said SLS was garbage and should be cancelled. Almost a decade ago I said Orion was a lie and a bad idea. As early as 1998, long before almost anyone else, I predicted in my first book, Genesis: The Story of Apollo 8, that private enterprise and freedom would conquer the solar system, not government. Very early in the COVID panic and continuing throughout I noted that every policy put forth by the government (masks, social distancing, lockdowns, jab mandates) was wrong, misguided, and did more harm than good. In planetary science, while everyone else in the media still thinks Mars has no water, I have been reporting the real results from the orbiters now for more than five years, that Mars is in fact a planet largely covered with ice.

 

I could continue with numerous other examples. If you want to know what others will discover a decade hence, read what I write here at Behind the Black. And if you read my most recent book, Conscious Choice, you will find out what is going to happen in space in the next century.

 

 

This last claim might sound like hubris on my part, but I base it on my overall track record.

 

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Boeing files FCC application for 3,000 satellite constellation

The competition heats up: Boeing this week submitted its second application to the FCC for its own 3,000 satellite constellation to provide “a wide range of advanced communications and Internet-based services.”

The second application this week specifically requested permission to launch the first 60 satellites. The whole plan is comparable to the one that SpaceX submitted earlier this week, and puts these two companies in direct competition. If both plans are launched, it will mean that more than 6,000 satellites will need launch services to gain orbit, which also means the launch business could get very busy in the coming years.

Genesis cover

On Christmas Eve 1968 three Americans became the first humans to visit another world. What they did to celebrate was unexpected and profound, and will be remembered throughout all human history. Genesis: the Story of Apollo 8, Robert Zimmerman's classic history of humanity's first journey to another world, tells that story, and it is now available as both an ebook and an audiobook, both with a foreword by Valerie Anders and a new introduction by Robert Zimmerman.

 

The print edition can be purchased at Amazon or from any other book seller. If you want an autographed copy the price is $60 for the hardback and $45 for the paperback, plus $8 shipping for each. Go here for purchasing details. The ebook is available everywhere for $5.99 (before discount) at amazon, or direct from my ebook publisher, ebookit. If you buy it from ebookit you don't support the big tech companies and the author gets a bigger cut much sooner.


The audiobook is also available at all these vendors, and is also free with a 30-day trial membership to Audible.
 

"Not simply about one mission, [Genesis] is also the history of America's quest for the moon... Zimmerman has done a masterful job of tying disparate events together into a solid account of one of America's greatest human triumphs."--San Antonio Express-News

5 comments

  • Gealon

    At the risk of sounding a little skeptical about these multi-thousand satellite constellations…

    Yay! More space junk! That ride into space is looking safer and safer.

  • eddie willers

    Space is pretty big.

  • wayne

    Eddie–
    as well….
    “It is Very Cold, in Space.” (Or so they say…)
    https://youtu.be/5vwHLMs04XA

    Gealon– yeah, it does sound a bit Fantastical. Wish them luck– we shall see what transpires.

    Q: How many launches will this require?
    (I don’t think the EPA is going to play ball. All these new & improved Regulations, aren’t going to write themselves, are they?)

  • Edward

    wayne asked: “Q: How many launches will this require?

    Nice question, and we can do a little math:

    The article says that for the first phase, “Three separate constellations would cover the Americas, Africa and Europe, and Asia and Australia” in highly inclined orbits that are about as high as the geostationary orbit (GEO). The map shows that there will be three separate planes, requiring at least three separate launches of 20 satellites on each launch. A Boeing Delta IV can lift 28,000 pounds to a transfer orbit for geostationary satellites (GTO). Thus, for a Delta IV launch (by ULA), each of these satellites can weigh about 1,400 pounds. The article mentions a second set of 20 satellites to be launched in phase 2.

    That is a total of 4 launches for the first 80 Boeing satellites.

    Boeing plans at least 35 orbital planes in a 1,200 km low Earth orbit (LEO) for the remaining 2,900 or so remaining satellites, which would mean about 83 satellites per orbit. A Boeing Delta IV can lift 62,000 pounds to LEO, but probably less to this higher LEO. Assuming that the Boeing satellites weigh about as much as the SpaceX satellites, 850 pounds, then they can put fewer than 72 into each of these LEOs with each Delta IV launch. Thus, there may need to be two launches per plane (42-ish satellites per launch), for another 70 launches to put all these LEO satellites into orbit.

    This comes to at least 74 launches for the Boeing satellite constellation.

    SpaceX’s satellites are supposed to be 850 pounds, and a Falcon 9 can lift about 22,800 pounds to LEO. My math shows that a maximum of 26 satellites can go on one Falcon 9. Assuming that they want this many in each orbit, that means a minimum of 171 launches to put their entire fleet of 4,425 satellites on orbit. Since they are orbiting a bit higher than the usual LEO satellite, there may have to be more launches than that. As noted before, it also depends upon how many orbital planes they want to have.

    So, at least 74 launches for Boeing and at least 171 launches for SpaceX.

    SpaceX wants to do this in a five-year timeframe. Since their satellites are estimated to have 5 to 7 year lifetimes, the continuing pace to replace and update this system will be the same as for the original launches. If we assume that Boeing’s timeframe and lifetimes are similar, then they, too, will need a high launch pace for their satellites.

    Consider that for the past half century there have been only around 100 orbital/deep space launches per year worldwide. In order for these two companies to get their satellites into orbit, in addition to the regular number of launches, there would have to be about 15 launches per year for Boeing and about 35 launches per year for SpaceX. These two companies will increase the worldwide launch cadence by about 50%.

    When Iridium first launched, they had to do similar math to figure out how to get their 77 satellites on orbit using the three launchers that they had chosen for their 11 orbital planes. As I recall, each plane required two launches of 5 and 2 satellites per launch, depending upon the launcher used, for a total of 22-ish launches. Iridium did not look so daunting as these other two do, but maybe Boeing and SpaceX have learned from Iridium’s launch (and operations) experience.

  • wayne

    Edward–
    Thanks for those factoids!
    >Mr. Z mentioned your calculations on the John Batchelor show for 11-22-16.

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