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Readers! A November fund-raising drive!

 

It is unfortunately time for another November fund-raising campaign to support my work here at Behind the Black. I really dislike doing these, but 2025 is so far turning out to be a very poor year for donations and subscriptions, the worst since 2020. I very much need your support for this webpage to survive.

 

And I think I provide real value. Fifteen years ago I said SLS was garbage and should be cancelled. Almost a decade ago I said Orion was a lie and a bad idea. As early as 1998, long before almost anyone else, I predicted in my first book, Genesis: The Story of Apollo 8, that private enterprise and freedom would conquer the solar system, not government. Very early in the COVID panic and continuing throughout I noted that every policy put forth by the government (masks, social distancing, lockdowns, jab mandates) was wrong, misguided, and did more harm than good. In planetary science, while everyone else in the media still thinks Mars has no water, I have been reporting the real results from the orbiters now for more than five years, that Mars is in fact a planet largely covered with ice.

 

I could continue with numerous other examples. If you want to know what others will discover a decade hence, read what I write here at Behind the Black. And if you read my most recent book, Conscious Choice, you will find out what is going to happen in space in the next century.

 

 

This last claim might sound like hubris on my part, but I base it on my overall track record.

 

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Details on Starliner changes

This article provides some details about the design changes being made to Starliner that have caused its first test flight to be delayed until 2018.

Genesis cover

On Christmas Eve 1968 three Americans became the first humans to visit another world. What they did to celebrate was unexpected and profound, and will be remembered throughout all human history. Genesis: the Story of Apollo 8, Robert Zimmerman's classic history of humanity's first journey to another world, tells that story, and it is now available as both an ebook and an audiobook, both with a foreword by Valerie Anders and a new introduction by Robert Zimmerman.

 

The print edition can be purchased at Amazon or from any other book seller. If you want an autographed copy the price is $60 for the hardback and $45 for the paperback, plus $8 shipping for each. Go here for purchasing details. The ebook is available everywhere for $5.99 (before discount) at amazon, or direct from my ebook publisher, ebookit. If you buy it from ebookit you don't support the big tech companies and the author gets a bigger cut much sooner.


The audiobook is also available at all these vendors, and is also free with a 30-day trial membership to Audible.
 

"Not simply about one mission, [Genesis] is also the history of America's quest for the moon... Zimmerman has done a masterful job of tying disparate events together into a solid account of one of America's greatest human triumphs."--San Antonio Express-News

4 comments

  • John Kross

    Kind of late in the game isn’t it? Didn’t Boeing conduct aerodynamic tests before this? Troubling.

  • Edward

    John Kross,
    Yes. It is late in the process, but the tests were months ago. The solution is only now being announced, now that further testing indicates the solution works.

    Congress’s choice to reduce funding delayed this kind of testing and may have reduced the amount of resources available to find the solution, as other aspects need to also move forward as well, spreading scarce resources among too many areas.

    This is the kind of surprise that rears its ugly head after the engineers think that they have a good design, and why testing is performed to verify that the design is as good as thought. When this kind of surprise comes up, they figure out why and how the design is inadequate and what needs to change to make a working design.

    The disappointing part is that we have had capsules on top of rockets before, so we would think that we know how to do it successfully. Without knowing what the aerodynamic problem was, I am going to guess that the service module is shorter than for earlier capsules (perhaps to save weight), and that the shorter section resulted in unexpected aerodynamics.

  • John Kross

    Edward,
    Yes, I agree with most of your post, but surely aerodynamic tests (or at least detailed CFD models) should have been performed years ago when the first designs of the CST-100/Atlas V stack were envisioned. It still seems very late to discover “unexpected” aerodynamic loads.

  • Edward

    John Kross wrote: “but surely aerodynamic tests (or at least detailed CFD models) should have been performed years ago when the first designs of the CST-100/Atlas V stack were envisioned.

    Vision is not design. The vision is the perfect condition that is seen by the designers and artists making the concept drawings. Eventually reality rears its ugly head (that is where the surprises come in) and changes have to be made. A seemingly harmless, minor design change can turn into a nightmare. Because of the costs of tests and computer modelling, these are not done constantly but are saved until the design has settled down a bit.

    My research shows that they performed early wind tunnel testing — without the Atlas V as part of the model — in December of 2011. I did not find out when they included the Atlas V in their tests and analyses, but the service module was already short.

    The following article talks of two problems. One was weight (it grows during design, because of reality’s ugly head) and the other was the aerodynamic problem, but they had been working on these two problems before May:
    https://spaceflightnow.com/2016/08/02/boeing-nears-fix-for-cst-100-starliner-design-hitch/
    They had one issue, a non-linear aerodynamic loads issue, where they were getting some high acoustic loads right behind the spacecraft.

    Solving the problem may have taken a long time, because they need to understand why and how the problem occurred and what is happening aerodynamically in order to figure out how to solve it. When you run into trouble, return to the fundamentals and work from there.

    After all, what got them into this trouble in the first place was relying on the similarity to Apollo and other proven capsules. Guessing at a solution without understanding the problem can cause even further delays as it is discovered that the guess was wrong. As Gene Kranz said, “work the problem, people. Let’s not make things worse by guessing.”
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Z0h2Wk6-C_I (1 minute)

    From the linked article: “The good news is there are no additional large problems that have arisen in the last six months, so maybe we’re at the point where we’ve investigated everything, and we finally have a design we’re confident in.”

    Robert may have your answer, though: http://behindtheblack.com/behind-the-black/points-of-information/first-manned-starliner-flight-delayed/
    Robert commented: “This delay for Boeing is not really a surprise. Unlike SpaceX, the company had done very little actual development work on the capsule before winning its contract from NASA. They therefore have a lot more to do to become flight worthy.

    It looks like, for Boeing, the serious work started after the contract was signed in 2014.

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