FAA demands SpaceX do “mishap investigation” into the loss of Starship yesterday
The FAA today announced that it is going to require SpaceX “to perform a mishap investigation into the loss of the Starship vehicle during launch operations on Jan. 16.”
Will this demand involve the same delays seen during the Biden years? I strongly believe they will not, for several reasons.
First, the FAA’s announcement seemed to me to have a decidedly different tone than in the past. It didn’t say “The FAA needed to complete a mishap investigation,” it said SpaceX had to do it. During the Biden administration the FAA made believe it was qualified to investigate any issues on a Starship/Superheavy launch, when in reality it had no such qualifications at all. It simply waited for SpaceX to complete its investigation, then would spend one to three months as it retyped SpaceX’s report.
Before Biden, the FAA let the company do the investigation, and quickly accepted its conclusions. That appears to be what it is doing now.
Second, Musk’s own response in announcing the preliminary results of the SpaceX investigation yesterday suggests he already expects the FAA to change its approach in this manner. “Nothing so far suggests pushing next launch past next month.” Right away he is signaling us that when SpaceX completes its work it expects the FAA to quickly okay the next flight. No long waits for paper work.
Third, there is Trump. If any FAA bureaucrats still try to play power games against SpaceX they will quickly discover they have no allies in the chain of command. Musk will make these games public, and Trump will come down hard against them.
That’s my hopeful prediction. We shall shortly see if my optimism has merit.
Hat tip to BtB’s stringer Jay.
On Christmas Eve 1968 three Americans became the first humans to visit another world. What they did to celebrate was unexpected and profound, and will be remembered throughout all human history. Genesis: the Story of Apollo 8, Robert Zimmerman's classic history of humanity's first journey to another world, tells that story, and it is now available as both an ebook and an audiobook, both with a foreword by Valerie Anders and a new introduction by Robert Zimmerman.
The print edition can be purchased at Amazon or from any other book seller. If you want an autographed copy the price is $60 for the hardback and $45 for the paperback, plus $8 shipping for each. Go here for purchasing details. The ebook is available everywhere for $5.99 (before discount) at amazon, or direct from my ebook publisher, ebookit. If you buy it from ebookit you don't support the big tech companies and the author gets a bigger cut much sooner.
The audiobook is also available at all these vendors, and is also free with a 30-day trial membership to Audible.
"Not simply about one mission, [Genesis] is also the history of America's quest for the moon... Zimmerman has done a masterful job of tying disparate events together into a solid account of one of America's greatest human triumphs."--San Antonio Express-News
The FAA today announced that it is going to require SpaceX “to perform a mishap investigation into the loss of the Starship vehicle during launch operations on Jan. 16.”
Will this demand involve the same delays seen during the Biden years? I strongly believe they will not, for several reasons.
First, the FAA’s announcement seemed to me to have a decidedly different tone than in the past. It didn’t say “The FAA needed to complete a mishap investigation,” it said SpaceX had to do it. During the Biden administration the FAA made believe it was qualified to investigate any issues on a Starship/Superheavy launch, when in reality it had no such qualifications at all. It simply waited for SpaceX to complete its investigation, then would spend one to three months as it retyped SpaceX’s report.
Before Biden, the FAA let the company do the investigation, and quickly accepted its conclusions. That appears to be what it is doing now.
Second, Musk’s own response in announcing the preliminary results of the SpaceX investigation yesterday suggests he already expects the FAA to change its approach in this manner. “Nothing so far suggests pushing next launch past next month.” Right away he is signaling us that when SpaceX completes its work it expects the FAA to quickly okay the next flight. No long waits for paper work.
Third, there is Trump. If any FAA bureaucrats still try to play power games against SpaceX they will quickly discover they have no allies in the chain of command. Musk will make these games public, and Trump will come down hard against them.
That’s my hopeful prediction. We shall shortly see if my optimism has merit.
Hat tip to BtB’s stringer Jay.
On Christmas Eve 1968 three Americans became the first humans to visit another world. What they did to celebrate was unexpected and profound, and will be remembered throughout all human history. Genesis: the Story of Apollo 8, Robert Zimmerman's classic history of humanity's first journey to another world, tells that story, and it is now available as both an ebook and an audiobook, both with a foreword by Valerie Anders and a new introduction by Robert Zimmerman.
The print edition can be purchased at Amazon or from any other book seller. If you want an autographed copy the price is $60 for the hardback and $45 for the paperback, plus $8 shipping for each. Go here for purchasing details. The ebook is available everywhere for $5.99 (before discount) at amazon, or direct from my ebook publisher, ebookit. If you buy it from ebookit you don't support the big tech companies and the author gets a bigger cut much sooner.
The audiobook is also available at all these vendors, and is also free with a 30-day trial membership to Audible.
"Not simply about one mission, [Genesis] is also the history of America's quest for the moon... Zimmerman has done a masterful job of tying disparate events together into a solid account of one of America's greatest human triumphs."--San Antonio Express-News
Pray tell where is the similar demand for the results of Blue Origins first stage? At least in the case of Starship we saw the remains reenter over the Turks and Caicos. Has the first stage of New Glenn reentered yet? It was not clear what it’s trajectory was when it failed but it seemed to go further up than superheavy does, more like the Falcon 9 first stage?
Tregonsee314:
Already in progress.
https://x.com/wapodavenport/status/1569359448690278400?s=19
Trent: That is a very old tweet, referring to the New Shepard incident from I think 2022. It doesn’t relate to this week’s New Glenn launch.
At the same time, I expect the FAA to take the same approach with Blue Origin as it does with SpaceX,and that approach will more closely match its policies prior to the Biden presidency, where it recognized it has no qualifications to do any investigations, and will simply require the companies to do it (as if they wouldn’t!) and then accept the results quickly.
With SpaceX this policy will make an appreciable difference, as the company moves very fast between test launches. With Blue Origin it won’t matter much, because Blue Origin tends to work slowly no matter what.
I can’t seem to locate any video or reportage of any kind on the BO landing glitch, other than that it “missed” the landing.
Ps. Blue Origin New Glenn… BONG!
To all: Trent emailed me to apologize for his error, and he added this correct link to the FAA’s investigation notice to Blue Origin. As with SpaceX, the agency is “requiring Blue Origin to perform a mishap investigation.” The FAA then tops this by telling everyone to contact Blue Origin for more information.
If that doesn’t tell us that the FAA is ending its fake game of pretending to do these investigations I don’t know what does.
Whoops!
I grabbed the wrong link. Lets try this one on for size:
https://x.com/BCCarCounters/status/1880082773689414123
Ray Van Dune “BONG”:
Scott Manley was really going nuts with that this last week. Super entertaining :D
Trent – missed Scott’s use of “BONG”. I have been on an extended road trip and this site and a few others were all I had time for!
Would be nice if the public could be better informed by SpaceX. Did Starship RUD or was the FTS triggered? There is a wide gap of concern for the public to consider as it evaluates those two outcomes.
I’m pretty sure when the New Glenn GSE opened the water deluge prior to ignition, the guy on the launch loop said “Bong water started.”
The policy didn’t change under Biden. Companies did mishap investigations with FAA supervision. They FAA reviewed the results of the investigation and gave the go ahead to resume launches once it was satisfied with the results and proposed changes.
A better link to both the Starship and BONG investigations:
https://www.faa.gov/newsroom/statements/general-statements
Both descriptions on the same page!
In short, change the FAA AFTS protocols to detonate at a lower altitude.
Spit balling here from what I have read but for Flight 7, the asymmetric thrust by progressive engine shutdowns caused SS to start the spinning in space on a ballistic trajectory. The ship stayed together since there were no aerodynamic forces that are present lower in the atmosphere to tear it apart like would happen for a typical stage 1 with similar out of control death spirals as we have seen lots of time before for other doomed rockets that have died before the FTS was triggered by the range officer.
So it seems that SS was in its nominal flight corridor but the AFTS determined after a few minutes it was too low and slow to make Australia ballistically, and per FAA “current” termination protocols, terminated the flight somewhere over 100 kilometers in altitude and created a very larger debris plume that expanded as it descended with some pieces allegedly landing beyond the TFR exclusion zone. IF/when they reprogram the AFTS, to trigger at lower altitudes, the termination event would have occurred much further east and at lower altitude, with a much smaller debris plume in the ocean while still being well short of Africa. Stay tuned for more findings.
Pilots look hopping mad
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=O_CnuIJWLJU
A solution to NewSpace HLLV woes:
https://x.com/SpaceOffshore/status/1880032569988968814
Jeff Wright,
Thank you for the video. A friend of mine recently recommended that I watch blancolirio, but after seeing that, I will pass on his recommendation in favor of people who know what they are talking about. Ellie in Space interviewed an actual pilot, who said that such reactions by airliners and air traffic control are routine, because a large number of events, natural and manmade, cause similar traffic disruptions.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=k-ekXcsYucw&t=1278s (1/2 hour, cued to topic at hand).
Let me throw this out here.
I know Starship is to be Methalox, same as SuperHeavy…. which as fared better than Starship itself.
There is a part of me that wonders whether or not the recent Starship test would have been more successful if it had kerolox Falcon engines that are more of a known quantity.
Payload mass might takes hit –but volume might increase using kerosene as fuel…perhaps kerosene leaks aren’t as critical as methane leaks.
Once the TPS and the airframe has been perfected–then move to all Methalox.
Jeff Wright recommended: “Once the TPS and the airframe has been perfected–then move to all Methalox.”
Maybe, but they are learning about all aspects of the craft, including the problems that may be associated with this new fuel. There is little practical flight experience around the world, as methane has only been flying for about three years and on a limited number of flights (<12?). Using methane increases the flight experience with the fuel and the Raptor engines, allowing them to get flight experience with the Raptor 3 sooner and with its predecessor, the Raptor 2. Will this experience lead to a Raptor 4?
On the other hand, three years ago SpaceX had been planning to test launch Starship and Super Heavy with kerosene-fueled Merlin engines, just to test out the structure and the flight concepts, but getting the flight license took too long and they opted to go straight for the methane and the Raptors.