Homebuilding market crashes due to Wuhan virus
The beatings will continue until morale improves: According to the Commerce Department, housing starts plunged 22.3% in the past month, the largest such decline since 1984, due to the Wuhan flu shutdowns imposed by state governments .
Economists are estimating the economy contracted as much as 10.8% in the first quarter, which would be the steepest drop in gross domestic product since 1947. They say the massive fiscal package will likely provide little cushion for the economy.
“The economy is in a downward spiral where job losses beget job losses and the federal government emergency relief checks will not be enough to turn the tide,” said Chris Rupkey, chief economist at MUFG in New York. “The recovery is looking less V-shaped by the day as the deeper we fall, the harder it will be for the nation to climb back out of this deep hole the pandemic has dug for the economy. The worst is yet to come.” [emphasis mine]
Once again, waiting two or three or four more weeks to release us from house arrest does not mean that the economy will simply come back to life then. Once businesses crash, it can take a long time to recover.
The lack of perspective astonishes me. We are going to bankrupt ourselves and bring on a Great Depression over a new disease this year that is comparable to the annual flu season.
Want to continue social distancing? Sure. Want people to wash their hands a lot? Sure. Wear masks? If you think it necessary, sure.
Shut down all business transactions so that millions become jobless and whole industries go bankrupt? Over this? That’s insane. Not only will such a economy crash cause far more suffering and deaths, it will make it far more difficult to fight the disease.
Readers!
Please consider supporting my work here at Behind the Black. Your support allows me the freedom and ability to analyze objectively the ongoing renaissance in space, as well as the cultural changes -- for good or ill -- that are happening across America. Fourteen years ago I wrote that SLS and Orion were a bad ideas, a waste of money, would be years behind schedule, and better replaced by commercial private enterprise. Only now does it appear that Washington might finally recognize this reality.
In 2020 when the world panicked over COVID I wrote that the panic was unnecessary, that the virus was apparently simply a variation of the flu, that masks were not simply pointless but if worn incorrectly were a health threat, that the lockdowns were a disaster and did nothing to stop the spread of COVID. Only in the past year have some of our so-called experts in the health field have begun to recognize these facts.
Your help allows me to do this kind of intelligent analysis. I take no advertising or sponsors, so my reporting isn't influenced by donations by established space or drug companies. Instead, I rely entirely on donations and subscriptions from my readers, which gives me the freedom to write what I think, unencumbered by outside influences.
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The beatings will continue until morale improves: According to the Commerce Department, housing starts plunged 22.3% in the past month, the largest such decline since 1984, due to the Wuhan flu shutdowns imposed by state governments .
Economists are estimating the economy contracted as much as 10.8% in the first quarter, which would be the steepest drop in gross domestic product since 1947. They say the massive fiscal package will likely provide little cushion for the economy.
“The economy is in a downward spiral where job losses beget job losses and the federal government emergency relief checks will not be enough to turn the tide,” said Chris Rupkey, chief economist at MUFG in New York. “The recovery is looking less V-shaped by the day as the deeper we fall, the harder it will be for the nation to climb back out of this deep hole the pandemic has dug for the economy. The worst is yet to come.” [emphasis mine]
Once again, waiting two or three or four more weeks to release us from house arrest does not mean that the economy will simply come back to life then. Once businesses crash, it can take a long time to recover.
The lack of perspective astonishes me. We are going to bankrupt ourselves and bring on a Great Depression over a new disease this year that is comparable to the annual flu season.
Want to continue social distancing? Sure. Want people to wash their hands a lot? Sure. Wear masks? If you think it necessary, sure.
Shut down all business transactions so that millions become jobless and whole industries go bankrupt? Over this? That’s insane. Not only will such a economy crash cause far more suffering and deaths, it will make it far more difficult to fight the disease.
Readers!
Please consider supporting my work here at Behind the Black. Your support allows me the freedom and ability to analyze objectively the ongoing renaissance in space, as well as the cultural changes -- for good or ill -- that are happening across America. Fourteen years ago I wrote that SLS and Orion were a bad ideas, a waste of money, would be years behind schedule, and better replaced by commercial private enterprise. Only now does it appear that Washington might finally recognize this reality.
In 2020 when the world panicked over COVID I wrote that the panic was unnecessary, that the virus was apparently simply a variation of the flu, that masks were not simply pointless but if worn incorrectly were a health threat, that the lockdowns were a disaster and did nothing to stop the spread of COVID. Only in the past year have some of our so-called experts in the health field have begun to recognize these facts.
Your help allows me to do this kind of intelligent analysis. I take no advertising or sponsors, so my reporting isn't influenced by donations by established space or drug companies. Instead, I rely entirely on donations and subscriptions from my readers, which gives me the freedom to write what I think, unencumbered by outside influences.
You can support me either by giving a one-time contribution or a regular subscription. There are four ways of doing so:
1. Zelle: This is the only internet method that charges no fees. All you have to do is use the Zelle link at your internet bank and give my name and email address (zimmerman at nasw dot org). What you donate is what I get.
2. Patreon: Go to my website there and pick one of five monthly subscription amounts, or by making a one-time donation.
3. A Paypal Donation or subscription:
4. Donate by check, payable to Robert Zimmerman and mailed to
Behind The Black
c/o Robert Zimmerman
P.O.Box 1262
Cortaro, AZ 85652
You can also support me by buying one of my books, as noted in the boxes interspersed throughout the webpage or shown in the menu above.
Robert noted: “Once again, waiting two or three or four more weeks to release us from house arrest does not mean that the economy will simply come back to life then.”
This is why they initially announced closures for only three weeks. After only three weeks, it would have been much, much easier to recover, because fewer companies would become insolvent and fewer jobs would be forever lost. With a long closure, there is too much damage that is too hard to repair. We all recognize this, and the shorter initial shutdown was easier to accept without protests in front of capitol buildings.
It is similar to the problem of our hospitals not treating routine health problems. As you read this, minor health problems are growing into major problems, and could ultimately result in death or permanent injury. As the shutdown extends in length, an economic hiccough turns into a recession turns into a depression.
With our workers out of work for a long time, we lose the prosperity that it takes to be able to recover.
My construction company is working on projects that were in the works before all the interventions started. My concern is not so much for the next month as it is for the next year when the starts that don’t happen now will not be work for later. My crew has been together a long time and I would hate to see layoffs as I would be unlikely to build another team like I have now.
I am starting to see some reaction in people that don’t normally worry about politics. It is entirely possible that an anger will build up that will address the over reach that has been occurring during this crisis, as well as some of the problems that should have been addressed years and decades ago.
It is possible that this country could be stronger a year from now if people come out of this with the right attitude. An understanding that freedom to solve problems has been curtailed would be a valuable insight for many.
Dear Mr. Zimmerman,
Thanks for the information and timely facts. May I ask two questions?
First, I would like to see how many people in America died 365 days ago, and how many people died yesterday. (with no other conditions) How about repeat daily?
Is there a method of finding upcoming Space-X launches?
Thank you, and continue the good work!
larro: Your first question: I would love to know the answer to this as well. I’d need to do research, or have one of my educated readers clue us in.
Your second question: Go here or here.
FWIW the NY Times offers these figures for death rates in NY:
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/04/10/upshot/coronavirus-deaths-new-york-city.html
What I find interesting is the mutation rate of this virus. It is supposed to get a mutation every month. Maybe it is true with other viruses. Makes it is heck of a problem building herd resistance to. I wonder why it mutates. If we were on our way to Mars and the virus was in the spaceship with us, it seems its mutation rate from cosmic rays might be higher than on Earth. Likely we need to look at this prior to going to Mars.
News from the front
https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2020/04/16/the-shutdown-backlash-is-coming-soonwith-a-vengeance-189809
https://www.news.com.au/world/north-america/coronavirus-backlash-us-citizens-protest-on-streets-in-zombie-hordes/news-story/ccd6d61a96e13f3c0488b2cc09779964
https://citizen.co.za/news/south-africa/politics/2270675/reconsider-some-lockdown-bans-or-risk-a-backlash-of-non-compliance-steenhuisen/
@Andrew_W
All death rates being modeled are fake. The bureaucrats have no idea how many people are infected due to asymptomatic carriers.
Serologic tests needed in statistically high numbers across geographic areas to understand the full extent of the infection in the US.
Without this we cannot know what the death rate is.