July 13, 2023 Quick space links
Courtesy of BtB’s stringer Jay.
- ULA’s CEO says Blue Origin is manufacturing two BE-4 engines per quarter
8 engines a year, eh? New Glenn requires seven to launch. ULA will need two for each Vulcan launch. I don’t see this working as planned. If true ULA has a serious problem, and New Glenn will not fly for years.
Jay adds this link for comparison: SpaceX produces one Raptor-2 engine every two days, and was previously manufacturing 400 Merlin engines per year (before the reuse of the Falcon 9 first stage reduced the need for so many engines).
- The extra steel being added to Vulcan Centaur upper stage to prevent a recurrence of the another failure equals 300 pounds
Since the rocket is designed to take 60,000 pounds into orbit, this extra weight is not significant. The real question is why this issue was not discovered until now, after decades of using that Centaur upper stage.
- Roscosmos introduces an official mascot for its Luna-25 probe
It is asking for name suggestions. Submit yours here! (though it appears you’ll have to do it in Russian.
- Orbital Composite gets $1.7 million Space Force contract to test 3D printing antennas in orbit
This work, in partnership with Axiom, will also aid the development of Axiom’s station.
Readers!
Please consider supporting my work here at Behind the Black. Your support allows me the freedom and ability to analyze objectively the ongoing renaissance in space, as well as the cultural changes -- for good or ill -- that are happening across America. Fourteen years ago I wrote that SLS and Orion were a bad ideas, a waste of money, would be years behind schedule, and better replaced by commercial private enterprise. Only now does it appear that Washington might finally recognize this reality.
In 2020 when the world panicked over COVID I wrote that the panic was unnecessary, that the virus was apparently simply a variation of the flu, that masks were not simply pointless but if worn incorrectly were a health threat, that the lockdowns were a disaster and did nothing to stop the spread of COVID. Only in the past year have some of our so-called experts in the health field have begun to recognize these facts.
Your help allows me to do this kind of intelligent analysis. I take no advertising or sponsors, so my reporting isn't influenced by donations by established space or drug companies. Instead, I rely entirely on donations and subscriptions from my readers, which gives me the freedom to write what I think, unencumbered by outside influences.
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Courtesy of BtB’s stringer Jay.
- ULA’s CEO says Blue Origin is manufacturing two BE-4 engines per quarter
8 engines a year, eh? New Glenn requires seven to launch. ULA will need two for each Vulcan launch. I don’t see this working as planned. If true ULA has a serious problem, and New Glenn will not fly for years.
Jay adds this link for comparison: SpaceX produces one Raptor-2 engine every two days, and was previously manufacturing 400 Merlin engines per year (before the reuse of the Falcon 9 first stage reduced the need for so many engines).
- The extra steel being added to Vulcan Centaur upper stage to prevent a recurrence of the another failure equals 300 pounds
Since the rocket is designed to take 60,000 pounds into orbit, this extra weight is not significant. The real question is why this issue was not discovered until now, after decades of using that Centaur upper stage.
- Roscosmos introduces an official mascot for its Luna-25 probe
It is asking for name suggestions. Submit yours here! (though it appears you’ll have to do it in Russian.
- Orbital Composite gets $1.7 million Space Force contract to test 3D printing antennas in orbit
This work, in partnership with Axiom, will also aid the development of Axiom’s station.
Readers!
Please consider supporting my work here at Behind the Black. Your support allows me the freedom and ability to analyze objectively the ongoing renaissance in space, as well as the cultural changes -- for good or ill -- that are happening across America. Fourteen years ago I wrote that SLS and Orion were a bad ideas, a waste of money, would be years behind schedule, and better replaced by commercial private enterprise. Only now does it appear that Washington might finally recognize this reality.
In 2020 when the world panicked over COVID I wrote that the panic was unnecessary, that the virus was apparently simply a variation of the flu, that masks were not simply pointless but if worn incorrectly were a health threat, that the lockdowns were a disaster and did nothing to stop the spread of COVID. Only in the past year have some of our so-called experts in the health field have begun to recognize these facts.
Your help allows me to do this kind of intelligent analysis. I take no advertising or sponsors, so my reporting isn't influenced by donations by established space or drug companies. Instead, I rely entirely on donations and subscriptions from my readers, which gives me the freedom to write what I think, unencumbered by outside influences.
You can support me either by giving a one-time contribution or a regular subscription. There are four ways of doing so:
1. Zelle: This is the only internet method that charges no fees. All you have to do is use the Zelle link at your internet bank and give my name and email address (zimmerman at nasw dot org). What you donate is what I get.
2. Patreon: Go to my website there and pick one of five monthly subscription amounts, or by making a one-time donation.
3. A Paypal Donation or subscription:
4. Donate by check, payable to Robert Zimmerman and mailed to
Behind The Black
c/o Robert Zimmerman
P.O.Box 1262
Cortaro, AZ 85652
You can also support me by buying one of my books, as noted in the boxes interspersed throughout the webpage or shown in the menu above.
From everything I’ve seen, it might be more accurate to say that Centaur V is “Centaur III derived”, as SLS is “shuttle derived”. Yes, It’s a thin steel balloon pressurized hydrolox stage with RL-10 engines, just like the ones that have flown hundreds of missions. But Centaur III is 3.05 meters in diameter and uses 0.020″ thickness steel in most places. Centaur V is 5.4m in diameter, and the thickness of the steel varies. Apparently where the top of the tank is welded to the tank dome, the steel is thin enough that while the steel itself is fine for the load, the weld itself wasn’t good enough, so they’re wrapping another thin piece of steel in that spot to allow more weld surface.
It has been pointed out that the failure was on the 15th test of this particular tank which had therefore been stressed far beyond normal mission criteria, and it’s entirely possible that the problem didn’t actually have to be fixed. But either that public info is a bit optimistic, or they are being cautious in the face of the blowback they would face if they didn’t fix this and it did in fact fail on a mission.
Looks like that SpaceX Raptor rate is two years old, so it must be a lot greater than one every two days by now!
I thought BO re-designed that engine to make it easier to manufacture? Shouldn‘t we be seeing the results of this effort?
David M. Cook: Many here and elsewhere throughout the space world have been talking now for years of the need for Blue Origin to shift from the design to the mass production stage. At no point was there any indication from Blue Origin that it made the shift.
This tweet from Tory Bruno strongly suggests the company never did. Another bad sign about that company’s management.
David M. Cook, I think Elon would say that you design for manufacturability from square one.
If you first design for something that works, then every change for better manufacturability feels like a step backward, and your bosses and your customers probably won’t let you do it! Finally, you will give up and settle for what you have.
Of course, as many have observed concerning Elon, there are distinct advantages to not having a boss anywhere in the known universe, but having Gwynne Shotwell as CEO!
See “Falcon Heavy”
Robert – Given that the 300 additional pounds needs to be added to the second stage, I think that the the hit to Vulcan payload reverberates to more than just 300 lbs. This affects the mass fraction of the total rocket because both first and second stage mass fractions impacted. Propellant is needed to lift propellant to lift the extra stage. The rocket equation is a cruel mistress.
Using MITs Launcher Calculator on line calculator it looks to me like the impact is around 3,000 pounds of payload. I had to make big assumptions, so I’ll accept that I’m wrong but I know the hit is more than just pound for pound.
From Jeff Foust’s story on ULA:
[Tory Bruno] added that the production rate of the BE-4 is high enough that the test failure will not delay upcoming Vulcan launches. Blue Origin and other suppliers, along with ULA itself, are working to increase production to meet a rate of 25 vehicles a year by mid-2025, an initiative he called “25 in ’25.”
“I’m flattered by the attention we have now that a routine acceptance test was colorfully discussed on social media, but it really isn’t news,” he concluded.
https://spacenews.com/centaur-modifications-push-first-vulcan-launch-to-fourth-quarter/
For Tory’s sake, I hope his aspiration is fulfilled. But color me skeptical that Blue Origin can ramp up from 8 to 25 in just a year.
Doubting Thomas,
Upper stage mass gain should be a 1 to1 cost on payload. I see no way it can be more than 1 to 1. Not claiming it doesn’t matter, just that I’ve never seen a payload hit that is greater than the weight growth. The first stage mass ratio remains the same with 300 pounds less payload in the upper.
Richard M.
Going from 8 engines a year to 25 vehicles implies at least 50 engines per year (Vulcan) or 175 per year (New Glenn). Unless I misunderstand of course.
Going from 8 engines a year to 25 vehicles implies at least 50 engines per year (Vulcan) or 175 per year (New Glenn). Unless I misunderstand of course.
No, you are correct! My bad.
50 engines/year by 2025? Eeeek.
Mr. Eastman,
Thank you for the info. I don’t follow things that closely anymore so I am glad there is more info available about this problem.
You mentioned that this “flight” article had been stressed beyond mission criteria and had been through 15 tests already.
So this is their mission leader and they are going to launch essentially a test article and the AF is letting them get away with it in spite of all the other delays?
They built just one?
I’m admittedly out of the loop now a days but I remember the big effort to minimize “excessive” testing on flight hardware.
I would very much appreciate it if you would further enlighten me on this issue if you can because I am somewhat confounded by this situation.
Just posting a link to the resources that you have been using would be cool.
John Hare – Thank you. I appreciate your words from experience rather than just me mucking around in a internet based MIT calculator.
Doubting Thomas,
Later on I think I see where you were coming from. A 300 pound gain in the upper could very well be a 3,000 pound Or more hit on GLOW to lift the same payload. If that’s where you were, my apologies.
GLOW = Gross Lift Off Weight