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Readers! A November fund-raising drive!

 

It is unfortunately time for another November fund-raising campaign to support my work here at Behind the Black. I really dislike doing these, but 2025 is so far turning out to be a very poor year for donations and subscriptions, the worst since 2020. I very much need your support for this webpage to survive.

 

And I think I provide real value. Fifteen years ago I said SLS was garbage and should be cancelled. Almost a decade ago I said Orion was a lie and a bad idea. As early as 1998, long before almost anyone else, I predicted in my first book, Genesis: The Story of Apollo 8, that private enterprise and freedom would conquer the solar system, not government. Very early in the COVID panic and continuing throughout I noted that every policy put forth by the government (masks, social distancing, lockdowns, jab mandates) was wrong, misguided, and did more harm than good. In planetary science, while everyone else in the media still thinks Mars has no water, I have been reporting the real results from the orbiters now for more than five years, that Mars is in fact a planet largely covered with ice.

 

I could continue with numerous other examples. If you want to know what others will discover a decade hence, read what I write here at Behind the Black. And if you read my most recent book, Conscious Choice, you will find out what is going to happen in space in the next century.

 

 

This last claim might sound like hubris on my part, but I base it on my overall track record.

 

So please consider donating or subscribing to Behind the Black, either by giving a one-time contribution or a regular subscription. I could really use the support at this time. There are five ways of doing so:

 

1. Zelle: This is the only internet method that charges no fees. All you have to do is use the Zelle link at your internet bank and give my name and email address (zimmerman at nasw dot org). What you donate is what I get.

 

2. Patreon: Go to my website there and pick one of five monthly subscription amounts, or by making a one-time donation. Takes about a 10% cut.
 

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You can also support me by buying one of my books, as noted in the boxes interspersed throughout the webpage or shown in the menu above.


NASA downgrades Boeing’s Starliner contract

Starliner docked to ISS
Starliner docked to ISS in 2024.

NASA today announced a major revision to its contract for Boeing’s manned Starliner capsule, changes that will require it to fly one more unmanned cargo mission to ISS before putting people on it again, while also reducing the total number of later purchased manned flights.

As part of the modification, the definitive order has been adjusted to four missions, with the remaining two available as options. The next Starliner flight, known as Starliner-1, will be used by NASA to deliver necessary cargo to the orbital laboratory and allow in-flight validation of the system upgrades implemented following the Crew Flight Test mission last year.

NASA and Boeing are targeting no earlier than April 2026 to fly the uncrewed Starliner-1 pending completion of rigorous test, certification, and mission readiness activities. Following Starliner certification, and a successful Starliner-1 mission, Starliner will fly up to three crew rotations to the International Space Station.

It has been rumored for months that NASA would require Boeing to fly another unmanned mission before certifying Starliner for manned flights. The question that this press release does not answer is whether NASA is paying for this unmanned flight. The original contract was fixed price, and required Boeing to meet certain milestones before further payments. Another cargo flight to ISS was not in that original deal.

I therefore suspect this is NASA’s way to get Starliner certified. Boeing has likely refused to pay for another demo flight, threatening instead in negotiations to cancel the project entirely. NASA however needs to get cargo to ISS. By buying a cargo mission from Boeing (possibly instead of Northrop Grumman’s Cygnus capsule, which is presently hindered because it lacks its Antares launch vehicle), NASA gets that cargo while also saving Starliner.

The bottom line remains fundamental: Will Boeing finally be able to do a successful problem-free Starliner flight in April 2026? We shall have to see. The fact that NASA appears to be reducing the total number of eventual Starliner missions to ISS indicates its own lack of confidence.

Genesis cover

On Christmas Eve 1968 three Americans became the first humans to visit another world. What they did to celebrate was unexpected and profound, and will be remembered throughout all human history. Genesis: the Story of Apollo 8, Robert Zimmerman's classic history of humanity's first journey to another world, tells that story, and it is now available as both an ebook and an audiobook, both with a foreword by Valerie Anders and a new introduction by Robert Zimmerman.

 

The print edition can be purchased at Amazon or from any other book seller. If you want an autographed copy the price is $60 for the hardback and $45 for the paperback, plus $8 shipping for each. Go here for purchasing details. The ebook is available everywhere for $5.99 (before discount) at amazon, or direct from my ebook publisher, ebookit. If you buy it from ebookit you don't support the big tech companies and the author gets a bigger cut much sooner.


The audiobook is also available at all these vendors, and is also free with a 30-day trial membership to Audible.
 

"Not simply about one mission, [Genesis] is also the history of America's quest for the moon... Zimmerman has done a masterful job of tying disparate events together into a solid account of one of America's greatest human triumphs."--San Antonio Express-News

8 comments

  • Richard M

    It has been rumored for months that NASA would require Boeing to fly another unmanned mission before certifying Starliner for manned flights. The question that this press release does not answer is whether NASA is paying for this unmanned flight.

    A good question, Bob. I wish NASA had spelled this out.

    I tend to assume that they *are* paying for it, since it is a modification of the CCtCap contract rather than a fresh one — my suspicion is that NASA is paying for it as if it is one of the crewed flights. If that is true, that makes it one heck of an expensive cargo mission, given the severe limits Starliner will have in terms of mass and volume for payload in that crew compartment…

    Either way, Eric Berger is on point in his observation about why critical it is for Boeing that this mission succeed:

    “There should be no equivocating on this one. Starliner is drinking in the last chance saloon. Any serious issues with this flight will doom the program as time will run out to get Starliner flying for any operational ISS missions.”

    https://x.com/SciGuySpace/status/1993034688060178519

    As far as *NASA* is concerned, of course, they really do not need Starliner any longer for crew transport — Dragon has thoroughly proven itself in this role, and it is clearly capable of flying all the missions NASA needs, on the schedule it requires. I think this attempt to salvage the contract like is about other objectives: 1) keeping Boeing alive as a NASA vendor, 2) keeping alive the possibility of a second crew vehicle for the time when commercial space stations start coming online; 3) salvaging the perception of a better program outcome for the Commercial Crew program; and 4) keeping certain constitiuencies on Capitol Hill mollified.

  • Ray Van Dune

    “… Boeing has likely refused to pay for another demo flight, threatening instead in negotiations to cancel the project entirely.”

    Then Boeing could change its name to “Boeing Buggy-whips”!

  • Richard M

    By the way, someone on NSF raised a good question that has been percolating ever since this idea of a Starliner cargo flight began to be floated in public: Do the affected competitors for Commercial Resupply Services (that is, SpaceX and Northrup Grumman) or the Commercial Crew Program (that is, SpaceX) have any basis to challenge this contract mod? It is in effect a sole-source award with a very weak justification.

    Of course, it is not impossible that even if they *do* have good legal grounds, they might choose not to challenge it, out of a desire to not antagonize NASA over what is going to be a very small amount of (low value) cargo anyway.

  • mkent

    ”The fact that NASA appears to be reducing the total number of eventual Starliner missions to ISS indicates its own lack of confidence.”

    Actually it indicates a lack of time. Starliner is so late that it doesn’t have time to fly six more missions before ISS is abandoned. Those missions, like DreamChaser’s six cargo missions, will be available as options should ISS be extended. If NASA lacked confidence it wouldn’t be launching crew at all (hence the unmanned Starliner 1), not launching three crews and stopping.

    I’ve been predicting this for quite a few months now (except I predicted May, not April).

  • Richard M

    It’s a fair point: We are now at the point where there simply is not time for Boeing to fly its six contractual missions. That is, unless a) ISS’s life is extended significantly past 2030, or b) Starliner were suddenly to be given more than one flight a year for whatever reason.

    Neither of those seem very likely to me. I think it is going to be a hard push for Boeing to get even three crew flights, the way things are going.

  • Jeff Wright

    In winning the NGAD contract with F-47, Starliner went from being a stepson to a side-baby.

  • mkent

    ”In winning the NGAD contract with F-47, Starliner went from being a stepson to a side-baby.”

    Different Boeings. NGAD is Boeing St. Louis. Starliner is Boeing Huntsville. If Starliner were Boeing St. Louis, it probably wouldn’t be having anywhere near the problems it is.

  • Richard M: Except for Boeing’s outstanding contracts (relating to Starliner and SLS), Boeing is no longer a NASA vendor, and hasn’t been for more than five years. The agency made it very clear in the bidding for the manned lunar lander that Boeing’s bid was so bad it would not entertain future bids from the company.

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