New calculations raise odds from 1.2% to 2.3% that asteroid will impact Earth in ’32
New calculations have increased the chances that the recently discovered asteroid 2024 YR4 will hit the Earth in 2032 from 1.2% to 2.3%.
Ongoing observations from ground-based telescopes involved with the International Asteroid Warning Network will continue while the asteroid is still visible through April, after which it will be too faint to observe until around June 2028.
NASA’s James Webb Space Telescope will also observe the asteroid in March 2025 to better assess the asteroid’s size. Currently the asteroid is estimated to be 130-300 feet across.
There remains great uncertainty in these numbers. We will really not know for certain if the asteroid will hit us until its orbit is studied for the next few years. Moreover, its size and make-up is also not known precisely yet. It could be as large as 320 feet, or as small as 130 feet. If the larger size, it poses a much greater risk, though that risk shrinks again if it is a rubble-pile asteroid that will simply break apart upon hitting the atmosphere.
This is not something to take lightly. Though the asteroid is not a world-destroyer, it does have the ability to cause significant damage, depending on where it hits. As its arrival is not for eight years, there is even time to quickly put together an unmanned mission to study it. (In the past I would never said this, but the domination of private enterprise in our present competitive space industry makes many things possible that were impossible when NASA and the government ran everything.)
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New calculations have increased the chances that the recently discovered asteroid 2024 YR4 will hit the Earth in 2032 from 1.2% to 2.3%.
Ongoing observations from ground-based telescopes involved with the International Asteroid Warning Network will continue while the asteroid is still visible through April, after which it will be too faint to observe until around June 2028.
NASA’s James Webb Space Telescope will also observe the asteroid in March 2025 to better assess the asteroid’s size. Currently the asteroid is estimated to be 130-300 feet across.
There remains great uncertainty in these numbers. We will really not know for certain if the asteroid will hit us until its orbit is studied for the next few years. Moreover, its size and make-up is also not known precisely yet. It could be as large as 320 feet, or as small as 130 feet. If the larger size, it poses a much greater risk, though that risk shrinks again if it is a rubble-pile asteroid that will simply break apart upon hitting the atmosphere.
This is not something to take lightly. Though the asteroid is not a world-destroyer, it does have the ability to cause significant damage, depending on where it hits. As its arrival is not for eight years, there is even time to quickly put together an unmanned mission to study it. (In the past I would never said this, but the domination of private enterprise in our present competitive space industry makes many things possible that were impossible when NASA and the government ran everything.)
Readers!
My annual February birthday fund-raising drive for Behind the Black is now over. Thank you to everyone who donated or subscribed. While not a record-setter, the donations were more than sufficient and slightly above average.
As I have said many times before, I can’t express what it means to me to get such support, especially as no one is required to pay anything to read my work. Thank you all again!
For those readers who like my work here at Behind the Black and haven't contributed so far, please consider donating or subscribing. My analysis of space, politics, and culture, taken from the perspective of an historian, is almost always on the money and ahead of the game. For example, in 2020 I correctly predicted that the COVID panic was unnecessary, that the virus was apparently simply a variation of the flu, that masks were not simply pointless but if worn incorrectly were a health threat, that the lockdowns were a disaster and did nothing to stop the spread of COVID. Every one of those 2020 conclusions has turned out right.
Your help allows me to do this kind of intelligent analysis. I take no advertising or sponsors, so my reporting isn't influenced by donations by established space or drug companies. Instead, I rely entirely on donations and subscriptions from my readers, which gives me the freedom to write what I think, unencumbered by outside influences.
You can support me either by giving a one-time contribution or a regular subscription. There are four ways of doing so:
1. Zelle: This is the only internet method that charges no fees. All you have to do is use the Zelle link at your internet bank and give my name and email address (zimmerman at nasw dot org). What you donate is what I get.
2. Patreon: Go to my website there and pick one of five monthly subscription amounts, or by making a one-time donation.
3. A Paypal Donation or subscription:
4. Donate by check, payable to Robert Zimmerman and mailed to
Behind The Black
c/o Robert Zimmerman
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You can also support me by buying one of my books, as noted in the boxes interspersed throughout the webpage or shown in the menu above.
Armageddon (1998)
“You Guys are Nasa”
https://youtu.be/_B7MzBmjaJ8
(0:32)
If it is a rubble-pile asteroid, would there be a significant risk to our satellites? I imagine a shot gun like blast through the atmosphere, but perhaps the distances between object is so large it’s not a concern……
@jburn, satellites would only succumb to a direct hit as the asteroid approaches Earth. They’re at higher altitudes than where the atmosphere would heat up and /or break up the asteroid. Depending on how it fragments on entry, we might prefer a monolithic rock. If the fragments are big enough to reach the surface, the “shotgun blast” could cause considerably more destruction than a single impact. But there are a lot of variables that need to be worked out before we worry about specific scenarios.
A well-placed nuke might do the trick, if it was detonated ahead of the body. I know that it has become common wisdom that blowing up a nuke would just make the problem worse, but I am skeptical. If the blast was ahead of the body, it seems obvious that the delta-v imparted to it or to any fragments would be away from the original trajectory of the body, and thus unlikely to intersect the earth.
Personally, I would welcome a big beautiful meteor shower. Worth staying up all night for….
Sometimes the human race needs to be reminded how small we are. How vulnerable. How the colonization of other worlds is a good idea that’s worth pursuing.
December 22, 2032. Hot Fudge Wednesdae.
Ray Van Dune: There’s not a lot of dV in a few bits of bomb material and whatever fraction of the Alpha and Beta radiation impact the asteroid. There’s no atmosphere to superheat and turn into a blast wave, remember. The ideal is probably pass very close behind the target body and detonate as close as possible, I’d think in terms of tens of meters, to the asteroid to cause it to absorb as much radiation as possible and outgas. And then it’s a calculation of orbital mechanics to see what’s the most optimal change to make, I believe in most cases it would be to strike from behind/below in it’s orbital plane to get the most dV for your bang, but that’s probably over-simplifying.
All theories on deflecting or destroying this asteroid now are an utter waste of time. The first thing that must be done is to devise, as fast as possible, a mission to characterize it precisely. Once we know its real size, real orbit, real mass, and real shape, we can then move on to discussing methods of deflecting or destroying, if that is even necessary.
If I had to guess, several orbital tug companies, all the the lunar lander companies, and Rocket Lab have the most likely capabilities to move fast, with already existing technology, to put such a mission together. Who else? And shouldn’t this discussion also apply pressure to NASA to put out a request for proposals, now, on doing it? This could be far more important than finding a way to get VIPER to the Moon. It certainly is a more practical use of the funds.
David Eastman, I’m puzzled by why the delta-v achieved by detonating a nuke behind the body would be fundamentally more effective than by detonating in front of it. Please elaborate.
David Eastman-
Thanks for bringing that up– no blast waves in Space.
Starfish Prime Test Interim Report
https://youtu.be/KZoic9vg1fw
(1:09:31)
Scott Manley has a very good youtube on this, easy to find. Some points:
– spin rate indicates the object cannot be a rubble pile, it has to be solid
– the hit % will increase, at first, as both the object and the Earth will be inside the reducing error bar. At some point (it is to be hoped) the error bar will have shrunk to exclude the object, and the % goes to zero. Or not.
– explosive power is roughly Tunguska up to a Tsar Bomba, IIRC 5-40 MT.
There most important point is the severe geo-political problem of pushing the object to a different trajectory. The east terminator of the possible strike-track is over India. To push this more east to miss the Earth, the trajectory will need to pass across China, thus increasing the risk to the Chinese.
Star Trek: Original Series
“The Paradise Syndrome”
Spock Explains the Asteroid
https://youtu.be/T8_-CBCzDVU
(1:41)
If the election had gone another way I would have been praying for SMOD (the Sweet Meteor of Death) to hit. Now, I I think there might be a better chance for the 2030’s and my grandchildren. Not sure I’ll be there to see it one way or the other.
Yes, it really should.
Hello,
I am seeing different information as far as comments go. It says this article has 14 comments but when I click it shows me only 2. Does this happen to anyone else? It is not the first time I have seen this.
Thanks,
Yo
Chicxulub Impact
https://youtu.be/kpLY0YwMACE
4:36
“”””Ray Van Dune
February 9, 2025 at 7:18 am
David Eastman, I’m puzzled by why the delta-v achieved by detonating a nuke behind the body would be fundamentally more effective than by detonating in front of it. Please elaborate.”””””
Either slowing it down in the orbit or speeding it up should have the similar consequence of changing the time the body crosses the orbit of Earth. 2/10 of a meter per second across a year is more than the radius of Earth. That would change a dead center hit to a miss. While a non dead center hit would require less deflection, extreme accuracy is required for the minor changes to mater.
https://selenianboondocks.com/2013/03/dinokiller-eight-ball/ For one possibility.
Yo: This is a cache issue. Refresh your browser and the problem should vanish.
It is often assumed that breaking up such a body makes the hit worse—yet shotgun blasts don’t penetrate like rifle bullets.
Breaking this up means you open up more mass into surface area for the atmosphere to blunt.
If the body hits an ocean surface in one piece—the energy falls off by the square.
Open it up, and you have lots of air-bursts—where energy is reduced by the cube, if I recall correctly.
That could cause hazards to satellites.
Where is the position of the Moon?
A hit on the lunar farside may be of interest.
On impact tsunami
https://ntrs.nasa.gov/api/citations/20170005214/downloads/20170005214.pdf
Shades of the movie METEOR
https://www.flightglobal.com/nasa-plans-armageddon-spacecraft-to-blast-asteroid/75429.article
Skunk Bucket
Great book. But it was Hot Fudge Sundae falls on a Tuesday.
I need to re-read that one.
For others if not familiar.
Lucifers Hammer, by Niven and Pournelle.
The worst place it could hit would be Yosemite park in a shallow volcanic area.
Could it restart a huge volcano that could spread ash all over the east of the US?
Other than that I am not worried about this one.