Next Proton launch tentatively set for May
The Russians have tentatively scheduled their next Proton launch for May, contingent on the repair work being done on the rocket’s engines.
The engine repairs are required because of corruption in the factory that made them. Previously, the Russians had hoped to get Proton off the ground by April. That is no longer likely.
The link above includes a manifest of Russian launches through next year. Interestingly, it only includes three commercial launches. A quick review of the launches listed at this site only includes another three or so commercial launches much farther in the future. All in all, it appears that the Russians are getting less business for this rocket. I also suspect this will remain the case until they get things fixed and begin launching again, though they will need to cut their prices significantly to match SpaceX’s.
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The Russians have tentatively scheduled their next Proton launch for May, contingent on the repair work being done on the rocket’s engines.
The engine repairs are required because of corruption in the factory that made them. Previously, the Russians had hoped to get Proton off the ground by April. That is no longer likely.
The link above includes a manifest of Russian launches through next year. Interestingly, it only includes three commercial launches. A quick review of the launches listed at this site only includes another three or so commercial launches much farther in the future. All in all, it appears that the Russians are getting less business for this rocket. I also suspect this will remain the case until they get things fixed and begin launching again, though they will need to cut their prices significantly to match SpaceX’s.
Readers!
My annual February birthday fund-raising drive for Behind the Black is now over. Thank you to everyone who donated or subscribed. While not a record-setter, the donations were more than sufficient and slightly above average.
As I have said many times before, I can’t express what it means to me to get such support, especially as no one is required to pay anything to read my work. Thank you all again!
For those readers who like my work here at Behind the Black and haven't contributed so far, please consider donating or subscribing. My analysis of space, politics, and culture, taken from the perspective of an historian, is almost always on the money and ahead of the game. For example, in 2020 I correctly predicted that the COVID panic was unnecessary, that the virus was apparently simply a variation of the flu, that masks were not simply pointless but if worn incorrectly were a health threat, that the lockdowns were a disaster and did nothing to stop the spread of COVID. Every one of those 2020 conclusions has turned out right.
Your help allows me to do this kind of intelligent analysis. I take no advertising or sponsors, so my reporting isn't influenced by donations by established space or drug companies. Instead, I rely entirely on donations and subscriptions from my readers, which gives me the freedom to write what I think, unencumbered by outside influences.
You can support me either by giving a one-time contribution or a regular subscription. There are four ways of doing so:
1. Zelle: This is the only internet method that charges no fees. All you have to do is use the Zelle link at your internet bank and give my name and email address (zimmerman at nasw dot org). What you donate is what I get.
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If I counted correctly at that last link, there are 133 launches planned for the rest of this year. 28 are Falcon 9, and two are Falcon Heavies. 28 launches in Russia, and 21 from China. Only 14 are planned from French Guiana, Arianespace’s launch site, 11 of which are Ariane V rockets. 7 Atlas V and 2 Deltas (a Delta IV and a Delta II), 8 from Japan, and 7 from India.
It looks to me that SpaceX plans to be 23% of the launches, Russia 21%, China 16%, Arianespace 11%, ULA 9%, India 7%, and Japan 6%.
This is just for the remainder of the year. It will be interesting to see what the reality end up being.
Great overview, Edward!
I’m surprised that ULA is so small and India so big.