No Starship/Superheavy launch likely until January?
SpaceX is ready but the federal government says “No!”
We’re from the government and we’re here to help! In describing the effort of Senator Ted Cruz (R-Texas) to help SpaceX prod the federal bureaucracy into approving a new launch license for the company’s Starship/Superheavy rocket, space writer Mark Whittington included this significant but not previously mentioned tidbit that might help us predict when Fish & Wildlife (FWS) might finally give its okay for a launch:
The FWS has as long as 135 days to complete its review.
Let’s review the situation to understand what this tidbit means. At present it appears the FAA is ready to issue a launch licence, having closed its own investigation into the April Starship/Superheavy test flight on September 8, 2023.
At the time the FAA however was very clear: No launch license until Fish & Wildlife gave its environmental approval as well. Never before had this environmental agency had veto power over launches, but under the Biden administration it now has it.
Though Fish & Wildlife could have begun its own investigation in April, and met the 135-day deadline to give its approval for a launch the same time as the FAA, in September, it now appears that it did not start its clock ticking until after the FAA closed its work. If so, it appears Fish & Wildlife has until early January to complete its investigation.
Since FWS admitted in April, right after the failed test launch of Starship/Superheavy, that it caused no harm to wildlife, there appears no reason for this long delay.
The delay therefore can only be for two reasons, neither good. Either the people at Fish & Wildlife are utterly incompetent, and need eight months to write up the paperwork (even though in April they already knew that there was no reason to delay), or they are vindictive, power-hungry, and wish to exercise an animus against SpaceX in order to hurt the company.
Mostly likely we are seeing a combination of both: The bureaucrats at Fish & Wildlife are incompetent and hate SpaceX, and are using their newly gained power over issuing launch licenses to hurt it.
Either way, if Fish & Wildlife uses its entire 135-day window to issue its launch approval to SpaceX, no launch can occur this year. SpaceX will be stymied, and the development of this new heavy-lift reuseable rocket, possibly the most important new technology in rocketry ever, will be badly crushed. Not only will NASA’s Artemis program be damaged (it wants Starship as its manned lunar lander), SpaceX might face huge financial loses, as it needs Starship to launch and maintain its Starlink communications constellation.
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In 2020 when the world panicked over COVID I wrote that the panic was unnecessary, that the virus was apparently simply a variation of the flu, that masks were not simply pointless but if worn incorrectly were a health threat, that the lockdowns were a disaster and did nothing to stop the spread of COVID. Only in the past year have some of our so-called experts in the health field have begun to recognize these facts.
Your help allows me to do this kind of intelligent analysis. I take no advertising or sponsors, so my reporting isn't influenced by donations by established space or drug companies. Instead, I rely entirely on donations and subscriptions from my readers, which gives me the freedom to write what I think, unencumbered by outside influences.
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SpaceX is ready but the federal government says “No!”
We’re from the government and we’re here to help! In describing the effort of Senator Ted Cruz (R-Texas) to help SpaceX prod the federal bureaucracy into approving a new launch license for the company’s Starship/Superheavy rocket, space writer Mark Whittington included this significant but not previously mentioned tidbit that might help us predict when Fish & Wildlife (FWS) might finally give its okay for a launch:
The FWS has as long as 135 days to complete its review.
Let’s review the situation to understand what this tidbit means. At present it appears the FAA is ready to issue a launch licence, having closed its own investigation into the April Starship/Superheavy test flight on September 8, 2023.
At the time the FAA however was very clear: No launch license until Fish & Wildlife gave its environmental approval as well. Never before had this environmental agency had veto power over launches, but under the Biden administration it now has it.
Though Fish & Wildlife could have begun its own investigation in April, and met the 135-day deadline to give its approval for a launch the same time as the FAA, in September, it now appears that it did not start its clock ticking until after the FAA closed its work. If so, it appears Fish & Wildlife has until early January to complete its investigation.
Since FWS admitted in April, right after the failed test launch of Starship/Superheavy, that it caused no harm to wildlife, there appears no reason for this long delay.
The delay therefore can only be for two reasons, neither good. Either the people at Fish & Wildlife are utterly incompetent, and need eight months to write up the paperwork (even though in April they already knew that there was no reason to delay), or they are vindictive, power-hungry, and wish to exercise an animus against SpaceX in order to hurt the company.
Mostly likely we are seeing a combination of both: The bureaucrats at Fish & Wildlife are incompetent and hate SpaceX, and are using their newly gained power over issuing launch licenses to hurt it.
Either way, if Fish & Wildlife uses its entire 135-day window to issue its launch approval to SpaceX, no launch can occur this year. SpaceX will be stymied, and the development of this new heavy-lift reuseable rocket, possibly the most important new technology in rocketry ever, will be badly crushed. Not only will NASA’s Artemis program be damaged (it wants Starship as its manned lunar lander), SpaceX might face huge financial loses, as it needs Starship to launch and maintain its Starlink communications constellation.
Readers!
Please consider supporting my work here at Behind the Black. Your support allows me the freedom and ability to analyze objectively the ongoing renaissance in space, as well as the cultural changes -- for good or ill -- that are happening across America. Fourteen years ago I wrote that SLS and Orion were a bad ideas, a waste of money, would be years behind schedule, and better replaced by commercial private enterprise. Only now does it appear that Washington might finally recognize this reality.
In 2020 when the world panicked over COVID I wrote that the panic was unnecessary, that the virus was apparently simply a variation of the flu, that masks were not simply pointless but if worn incorrectly were a health threat, that the lockdowns were a disaster and did nothing to stop the spread of COVID. Only in the past year have some of our so-called experts in the health field have begun to recognize these facts.
Your help allows me to do this kind of intelligent analysis. I take no advertising or sponsors, so my reporting isn't influenced by donations by established space or drug companies. Instead, I rely entirely on donations and subscriptions from my readers, which gives me the freedom to write what I think, unencumbered by outside influences.
You can support me either by giving a one-time contribution or a regular subscription. There are four ways of doing so:
1. Zelle: This is the only internet method that charges no fees. All you have to do is use the Zelle link at your internet bank and give my name and email address (zimmerman at nasw dot org). What you donate is what I get.
2. Patreon: Go to my website there and pick one of five monthly subscription amounts, or by making a one-time donation.
3. A Paypal Donation or subscription:
4. Donate by check, payable to Robert Zimmerman and mailed to
Behind The Black
c/o Robert Zimmerman
P.O.Box 1262
Cortaro, AZ 85652
You can also support me by buying one of my books, as noted in the boxes interspersed throughout the webpage or shown in the menu above.
SpaceX Starship. The desire to see it fly is so pervasive that there is even a meme among spaceflight enthusiasts:
“Wen Fly?” with a picture of the Booster and Ship stacked on the OLM.
It is a guessing game. Not disputing your suggestion of January; here may be some countervailing indicators for maybe, just maybe, a little sooner.
Stacked (multiple times – why?)
This past week Fish & Wildlife Service (FWS) trucks ranging over Starbase accompanied by SpaceX trucks
Pad test over the weekend and deluge system triggered, looks like FWS was around there for test
Wet Dress rehearsal (WDR) yesterday (Tuesday 24th) with SpaceX posting afterward about success of test and then posting “Ready for Launch”……”Subject to Regulatory Approval”.
Some of the space enthusiast video blogs are predicting “Sometime November”
Don’t know anything – I want to see progress here but I am skeptical too, just wanted to share facts that I know that might bring some (small) hope.
All the best
It is, of course, option B: They are vindictive, power-hungry, and wish to exercise an animus against SpaceX in order to hurt the company.
Bureaucrats love nothing more than stifling innovation, and the vast host of “environmental” legions hatey-hate-hates SpaceX because of it’s capabilities to revolutionize space travel, industrialization, and potential colonization. Even though Starbase is located in a sandy, salt-flat desert, they have filed hundreds of meritless lawsuits engineered to delay, delay, and delay any launches or further development. Since the FWS bureaucracy is filled with like-minded zealots, one can only expect the same out of them.
Doubting Thomas: I must note that there is no reason for FWS trucks to finally be at Starbase now. This is stuff that could have been done months ago. To wait until now means they wanted to force a delay.
Perhaps American space activists should stage a demonstration in front of the Fish & Wildlife (FWS) office to draw media and public attention. Mr. Zimmerman, can’t you organize that?
Questioner, if people protested in front of the F&WS headquarters they would be arrested for insurrection and jailed for years without a trial. If you oppose this governing junta you are committing sedition against the democracy of the bureaucracy.
Prediction: Next flight @ November 6th.
The physical presence of Fish & Wildlife trucks could be interpreted as a due-diligence measure to verify SpaceX assertions of completion of measures, thus signaling the imminent conclusion of a review, or it could signify the mere initiation of an F&W review.
I tend to favor the former, but don’t press me as to why! An overdose of Hopium, perhaps!?
On what basis are you saying that FWS didn’t start the clock ticking until after the FAA closed it’s investigation? The last I heard, the day after that hearing, nobody really knew what the definition of that start point was.
There is lots of speculation that FWS is going to be very heavily focused on the runoff water from the deluge system and asking for remediation methods to include catchment pools and treatment before any runoff is released. Given that the FAA at least worked with and communicated with SpaceX so that remedies were mostly in place for their issues before the investigation was even closed and the report filed, I don’t know whether the lack of runoff remediation work means that FWS isn’t going to push for that, or isn’t telling SpaceX in advance. It’s seemed for a while that the FAA is just slow, but the FWS is actively hostile, so it wouldn’t surprise me if they do try and sandbag SpaceX. I suspect that the FAA and NASA will not be amused if they do.
Robert – Good question. Here is a supposition based on rumor and gossip. During one of my 7 hour driving trips to Boca Chica to hang out with space enthusiasts around the Brownsville area, I hear this again. I had mentioned it before in another post.
First let me say that my experience talking to people who admit (and are telling the truth) that they work for SpaceX doesn’t get you much info. They are a credit to their NDAs as they are remarkably quiet about the current goings on and future work. They simply express pride, excitement and exhaustion at what they do.
What I have heard around town and seen from space bloggers / YouTube-ers was that the Interior Dept was raising issues about the deluge system contaminating the surrounding wetlands. The deluge system was completed about 2 months ago and tested during a static fire of a booster (B9).
There was some speculation that SpaceX was clearing a large water catch basin but it ended up being a car park to get employee cars off Boca Chica Beach highway (which is just a wide two lane road). I wonder if SpaceX isn’t trying to demonstrate that the deluge system is not a problem for the surrounding wetlands?
I agree that the ID and FWS could be more cooperative but I can tell you from being down there, while 80+% people living in the area are enthusiastic about SpaceX being there, the usual set of groups from environmental, indigenous rights and just plain old “leave it all be” people are making anti-Starship noise which I am sure the current administration is receptive to listening to.
Again to you and all your supporters – all the best
Option C.
When and if F/W gives their Ok, some other fed department will find some reason to delay it further.
But this will give Elon more time to find some other country to operate from.
I’m amazed at the willingness of commenters at sites like Spacenews and Ars are willing to assert that this is business as usual and they believe that the Feds are acting in perfectly good faith. They seem not to take into account how different this regulatory environment is compared to that of the previous administration. They also don’t take into account that when the current administration WANTS something done, they are only too happy to waive regulations (e.g., 26 regulations waived for the “emergency wall”). Given the massive outrageous behavior by the IRS, FBI, SEC, DHS, Interior, and DoJ, there are many who no longer want to give them the benefit of the doubt. It would be wonderful to find out in a decade or so who decided to sic FWS on SpaceX.
MichiCanuck: Yeah, that naivety is why we are in the position we are in. Americans continue to refuse to believe that there are some very bad people in our government, and their numbers have been growing for years expressly because Americans refuse to believe they are there.
You want honest analysis? Come here to get it, both from me and my readers who comment so intelligently.
After looking at the photos of the new car park at the launch site, I notice that it would make a great catch basin when there are no cars parked there (like during a launch).
We know that the Fish & Wildlife Service (FWS) (do they do us a service, and if so, what is it?) started their review after 13 June 2023, otherwise their report would be due today.
Doubting Thomas wrote: “What I have heard around town and seen from space bloggers / YouTube-ers was that the Interior Dept was raising issues about the deluge system contaminating the surrounding wetlands. The deluge system was completed about 2 months ago and tested during a static fire of a booster (B9).”
The deluge system was also tested at least once before the Booster 9 static fire test. If the Department of the Interior (ID) and the FWS were truly worried that water (like rain, hurricanes, or the nearby waterway) is a contaminant to wetlands, then they would have required permission to perform those tests of the deluge system. How many fish and how much wildlife were harmed by those unlicensed tests?
And what about all the fish and wildlife that were harmed by the deluge systems for the Saturn V launches or even the SLS launch? How about the Falcon Heavy launches, the Falcon 9 launches, and all the other launches that happen at the Eastern Range? What about the launches at the Western Range? When did the FWS finish its review for the SLS launch?
Now that commercial space is making headway, all kinds of government agencies have inserted themselves into the regulation process and are increasing their regulatory empires without any ability to perform these processes. It isn’t just in the U.S., it is in Britain, too, where regulators who don’t know what they are doing or how to do it are unapologetic about driving young commercial space companies out of business. How soon will it happen to Indian commercial companies? How about the new German and Spanish commercial space companies?
Another question to ask: “Assuming that FWS is not trying to hinder commercial space, what would they be doing differently if they were trying to hinder commercial space?”
From what I was told years ago, from somebody I can’t remember, front end loaders that remove snow from paved parking lots and pile it up in huge piles, can’t just use dump those piles into trucks that haul and dump it into a river, because once in contact with asphalt it is considered toxic waste. Now I know Boston used to dump excess snow into Boston Harbor at one point but maybe they were granted an EPA exception? Do we know if the deluge waste water, once contained in a parking lot would be considered toxic waste? I mean how insane does one want to get here? We surely cannot have the WATER from our deluge system contaminate our wetland!
Stan W- Great comment, dual capability car park/catch basin. I keep searching for some sluice arrangement to direct the water after deluge started. Don’t see it but maybe some temporary Jersey Barrier like arrangement ?
Edward – Agree with all your observations. Mystifying but I think the world and our nation has changed significantly from the mid to late 1960’s. Apollo was (IMO) the last of the big Can Do projects.
David – Never knew that we can’t push snow off the road cause of contamination.
As of 4 pm today (Thursday 10/26) Ship and Booster de-stacked again.
Doubting Thomas: You can push snow off the road, but you can’t collect it and dump it into a river. We’d better hope that FWS decides excess deluge water remains water safe to a salt marsh and does not magically become toxic waste.
Draw the water from the salt marsh first and then use it for the deluge system.
That way everything that goes back is the same that came out.
Others are beginning to get it:
https://www.zerohedge.com/political/agency-overreach-musks-starship-rocket-launch-delayed-over-fish-wildlife-services
While the Republicans in the House have a lot on their plate at the moment, cutting some of the funding for the US Fish and Wildlife Service might be something that they should look at. Likewise, the House Rs ought to determine whether or not the Biden Administration actually wants to have a successful manned space program or not and then act accordingly. Perhaps some significant
budget cuts at the Never A Straight Answer agency would get some attention.
Milt: Cutting NASA’s budget, while it is justifiable to consider cutting all government agencies considering the insane deficits, would be shooting the wrong target. Your first thought, trimming Fish & Wildlife, would be more appropriate in the context of this fight.
Doubting Thomas,
You wrote: “I think the world and our nation has changed significantly from the mid to late 1960’s. Apollo was (IMO) the last of the big Can Do projects.”
Well, Starship is a pretty big project, and SpaceX seems very Can-Do about it. It is the government that has changed, and it is now in a No-Can-Do mode, even at NASA.
In the 1960s, NASA could take a huge, almost working rocket engine and in six years launch a brand new rocket design, larger than virtually anyone had imagined a real rocket could be, back when going to the Moon was proposed. SpaceX announced Starship in 2016, and could have launched that bird six years later, but it took seven due to government interference.
Stacking and destacking? The company and its engineers may be working out methods and processes for this operation, and they seem to be reducing the time needed to perform the stacking process. It certainly would be better if they could get in some more flight experience rather than ground support experience, but if they won’t let you fly, learning how to quicken the pace on the ground is the next best thing. Rockets are built to fly, not hang out on launch pads or in hangars.
Wiki:
“Mission
At its founding in 1896, the work of the Division of Biological Survey focused on the effect of birds in controlling agricultural pests and mapping the geographical distribution of plants and animals in the United States. By 1905 with funding scarce, the Survey included in its mission the eradication of wolves, coyotes and other large predators. This garnered them the support of ranchers and western legislators resulting, by 1914, in a $125,000 congressionally approved budget for use “on the National Forests and the public domain in destroying wolves, coyotes and other animals injurious to agriculture and animal husbandry”.
Etc, etc.
Why not end this govt agency?
It probably didn’t even kill enough wolves, and it seems to be killing whales.
It never did anything useful.