Russia releases timeline for its Russian Orbital Station to replace its ISS operations
A tabletop model of the station unveiled in 2022
Earlier this month Russia released a detailed timeline for the construction of its Russian Orbital Station (ROS) to replace its ISS operations once the older station is retired and de-orbited, with the first station module supposedly launched in 2027 and the station completed by 2033.
Russia is set to launch the future orbital outpost’s first research and energy module in 2027, Roscosmos said. Roscosmos also plans to launch the universal nodal, gateway and baseline modules by 2030 to form the core orbital station together with the research and energy module, it said. “At the second stage, from 2031 to 2033, the station is set to expand by docking two special-purpose modules (TsM1 and TsM2),” Roscosmos said.
The project is estimated at 608.9 billion rubles (about $6.98 billion).
This project has been discussed in Russia since the middle of the last decade, and as usual for Russian government-run space projects, it has limped along with little but powerpoint proposals and small demo models (as shown on the right) for years. The impending end of ISS and its replacement by commercial stations (that will not include any Russian participation) seems to have finally helped get the project started for real.
Don’t expect this above schedule however to meet its target dates. Russia’s track record since the fall of the Soviet Union is that such projects usually take two decades to launch, not three years.
The support of my readers through the years has given me the freedom and ability to analyze objectively the ongoing renaissance in space, as well as the cultural changes -- for good or ill -- that are happening across America. Four years ago, just before the 2020 election I wrote that Joe Biden's mental health was suspect. Only in this year has the propaganda mainstream media decided to recognize that basic fact.
Fourteen years ago I wrote that SLS and Orion were a bad ideas, a waste of money, would be years behind schedule, and better replaced by commercial private enterprise. Even today NASA and Congress refuse to recognize this reality.
In 2020 when the world panicked over COVID I wrote that the panic was unnecessary, that the virus was apparently simply a variation of the flu, that masks were not simply pointless but if worn incorrectly were a health threat, that the lockdowns were a disaster and did nothing to stop the spread of COVID. Only in the past year have some of our so-called experts in the health field have begun to recognize these facts.
Your help allows me to do this kind of intelligent analysis. I take no advertising or sponsors, so my reporting isn't influenced by donations by established space or drug companies. Instead, I rely entirely on donations and subscriptions from my readers, which gives me the freedom to write what I think, unencumbered by outside influences.
Please consider supporting my work here at Behind the Black.
You can support me either by giving a one-time contribution or a regular subscription. There are five ways of doing so:
1. Zelle: This is the only internet method that charges no fees. All you have to do is use the Zelle link at your internet bank and give my name and email address (zimmerman at nasw dot org). What you donate is what I get.
2. Patreon: Go to my website there and pick one of five monthly subscription amounts, or by making a one-time donation.
3. A Paypal Donation:
5. Donate by check, payable to Robert Zimmerman and mailed to
Behind The Black
c/o Robert Zimmerman
P.O.Box 1262
Cortaro, AZ 85652
You can also support me by buying one of my books, as noted in the boxes interspersed throughout the webpage or shown in the menu above. And if you buy the books through the ebookit links, I get a larger cut and I get it sooner.
A tabletop model of the station unveiled in 2022
Earlier this month Russia released a detailed timeline for the construction of its Russian Orbital Station (ROS) to replace its ISS operations once the older station is retired and de-orbited, with the first station module supposedly launched in 2027 and the station completed by 2033.
Russia is set to launch the future orbital outpost’s first research and energy module in 2027, Roscosmos said. Roscosmos also plans to launch the universal nodal, gateway and baseline modules by 2030 to form the core orbital station together with the research and energy module, it said. “At the second stage, from 2031 to 2033, the station is set to expand by docking two special-purpose modules (TsM1 and TsM2),” Roscosmos said.
The project is estimated at 608.9 billion rubles (about $6.98 billion).
This project has been discussed in Russia since the middle of the last decade, and as usual for Russian government-run space projects, it has limped along with little but powerpoint proposals and small demo models (as shown on the right) for years. The impending end of ISS and its replacement by commercial stations (that will not include any Russian participation) seems to have finally helped get the project started for real.
Don’t expect this above schedule however to meet its target dates. Russia’s track record since the fall of the Soviet Union is that such projects usually take two decades to launch, not three years.
The support of my readers through the years has given me the freedom and ability to analyze objectively the ongoing renaissance in space, as well as the cultural changes -- for good or ill -- that are happening across America. Four years ago, just before the 2020 election I wrote that Joe Biden's mental health was suspect. Only in this year has the propaganda mainstream media decided to recognize that basic fact.
Fourteen years ago I wrote that SLS and Orion were a bad ideas, a waste of money, would be years behind schedule, and better replaced by commercial private enterprise. Even today NASA and Congress refuse to recognize this reality.
In 2020 when the world panicked over COVID I wrote that the panic was unnecessary, that the virus was apparently simply a variation of the flu, that masks were not simply pointless but if worn incorrectly were a health threat, that the lockdowns were a disaster and did nothing to stop the spread of COVID. Only in the past year have some of our so-called experts in the health field have begun to recognize these facts.
Your help allows me to do this kind of intelligent analysis. I take no advertising or sponsors, so my reporting isn't influenced by donations by established space or drug companies. Instead, I rely entirely on donations and subscriptions from my readers, which gives me the freedom to write what I think, unencumbered by outside influences.
Please consider supporting my work here at Behind the Black.
You can support me either by giving a one-time contribution or a regular subscription. There are five ways of doing so:
1. Zelle: This is the only internet method that charges no fees. All you have to do is use the Zelle link at your internet bank and give my name and email address (zimmerman at nasw dot org). What you donate is what I get.
2. Patreon: Go to my website there and pick one of five monthly subscription amounts, or by making a one-time donation.
3. A Paypal Donation:
5. Donate by check, payable to Robert Zimmerman and mailed to
Behind The Black
c/o Robert Zimmerman
P.O.Box 1262
Cortaro, AZ 85652
You can also support me by buying one of my books, as noted in the boxes interspersed throughout the webpage or shown in the menu above. And if you buy the books through the ebookit links, I get a larger cut and I get it sooner.
Key question – what inclination are they aiming for?
51.6 like ISS or a more Polar orbit they had been suggesting.
If it was 51.6 they could reuse parts from ISS. But not in the new inclination
Geoffc,
I have seen a range of numbers mentioned on Russian websites = 70 to 97 degrees.
Russia’s track record since the fall of the Soviet Union is that such projects usually take two decades to launch, not three years
So much has changed in the last 35 years and as far as the Russians new space station, well at least they have plans for one.
I’m sorry to say that it’s the US that finds itself in the “such projects usually take two decades to launch, not three years” part of the conversation.
It looks like Mir retreads.
The module at the rear looks like Kevant 1, Mir core module ahead of that, Spekter with larger solar panels to the right , Krystal to the left. The thing on top is new, it looks like a multiple docking adapter, which makes no sense since it’s off axis. Bottom and front I can’t identify.
The proposed schedule has 19 Soyuz and 15 Angara launches related to this station in the 2027-2033 time frame. That’s on top of whatever other launch commitments they may have for their own payloads and ISS support. That right there is a stretch given their current capabilities, not even considering having the payloads ready. And they are developing and testing the new PTK crew spacecraft as part of that timeline. I’d love to see it happen, but there’s just no way they pull it off. If you were offering bets, I don’t think you could get anyone to bid on it actually happening on schedule. I think the real question is whether the space station goes up as designed, but a decade or more late, or doesn’t go up at all, or just as the absolute bare complement of modules, and then gets abandoned soon after.
Charles wrote: “I’m sorry to say that it’s the US that finds itself in the “such projects usually take two decades to launch, not three years” part of the conversation.”
Sadly, this has truth to it. The U.S. projects that are taking two decades are government projects. Webb was one of those. It should have taken a decade and was originally budgeted for half a billion dollars, eventually costing almost ten billion. Artemis started out as Constellation and is also taking more than two decades and is costing several tens of billions of dollars (I lost count, years ago, around twenty billion, including Constellation, Gateway, and Orion).
The good news: This is one of the several advantages of commercial space projects. Their financiers are not as forgiving as governments, and they will — and have — pulled the plug on projects that they lose faith in. This is what happened to Virgin Orbit, last year, because they could not talk investors into a new infusion of cash to tide them over a few months to fix a problem.
Unlike government projects, commercial projects not only have to make money, but they do better when they make their money sooner rather than later. It is one of the reasons that SpaceX’s development programs tend to move fast and break things. They find out quickly which new concepts work and which may need more improvement than is affordable. Starlink did not exactly break its satellites, but it moved fast to launch already-obsolete satellites just to verify some concepts now rather than later.
Starship is currently at over five billion dollars and appears to have ramped up to spending two billion dollars per year. It was originally a Power Point presentation in 2016, eight years ago, but it is getting close to revenue service.
The late Soviet Union also had a lot of big plans for what turned out to be its non-existent future. The way things are currently trending, Russia’s odds of still being an extant nation-state by the 2027 – 2033 timeframe are looking to be no better than a coin-flip.